Excess Returns

In this episode of Excess Returns, we speak with Jeff Muhlenkamp, portfolio manager at Muhlenkamp and Company. We discuss Jeff's views on inflation, the likelihood of a recession, and the possibility of another financial crisis. We also take a in depth look at his investment process, which focuses on finding good companies with strong growth, profitability, and financial strength. He also discussed the importance of understandi...

In this episode we are joined by Andy Constan, founder of Damped Spring Advisors. We discuss his outlook on the current economic landscape, why he left "higher for longer" island, inflation, the Fed's actions, the bond market, and the influence of Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and a lot more. He also shares his views on defining alpha and beta in investing, and how he constructs portfolios to generate long-term retu...

David Einhorn recently said that he thinks fundamental investing is broken. If he is right, there would certainly be significant long-term implications for value investing. We explored Einhorn's case in several of our episodes and so we thought it was time we explored the other side of the argument and looked at the long-term case for value. And we couldn't think of anyone better to do that with than our good friend Tobias ...

In this episode, Research Affiliates founder Rob Arnott returns for his third appearance on Excess Returns. We cover a wide range of topics, including inflation, the struggles of value investing, expected future returns, avoiding value traps, AI and a lot more. Stay tuned until the end when we ask Rob what he is most worried and optimistic about when he looks to the future.

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AI stocks have seen a big run recently. This has led many fundamental-based investors to suggest that things have gotten ahead of themselves. Some have even suggested AI is already in a bubble. But what if we are still in the early innings? What if a bubble is just getting started that could eventually exceed the dotcom bubble? Those are the questions we tackle this week with Deepwater's Doug Clinton. Doug wrote a thought-provo...

There have been many significant events in the economy and stock market over the past several years. We have had inflation. We have had bank failures. We have had a pandemic. We have even had a potential bubble developing in the AI space. Despite their differences, there is one thing that all of these events have in common - all of them have happened before. And studying that history can allow us to better understand them and what ...

In this episode, we are joined by Mike Taylor, manager of the Simplify Health Care ETF (PINK). Mike is one of the best healthcare investors out there and has managed portfolios for Oppenheimer and major hedge funds like Citadel and Millennium. PINK is the only ETF in existence that donates all its profits to charity with its proceeds benefitting the Susan G. Komen foundation. We talk to Mike about the exciting developments going on...

In this episode of Show Us Your Portfolio, we speak with Unlimited Funds founder Bob Elliott. We discuss the unique multi strategy approach he uses to manage his personal portfolio. We cover the weaknesses of the 60-40 portfolio, the 4 buckets Bob uses as the building blocks for his investment strategy, the benefits of simplicity, how Bob views home ownership, leaving money to children, gardening and a lot more.

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David Einhorn said in a recent podcast interview that he feels that the market is broken. He has made significant changes to his investment approach as a result. Much of the basis for his assertion is based on the work of Simplify's Mike Green, who has been warning investors about the dangers of passive investing for many years. In this episode, we are fortunate to have Mike back for his third appearance on the podcast. We disc...

With inflation off its highs, but still elevated relative to the Fed's target, there are differing opinions on where we go from here. In this episode, Discipline Funds founder Cullen Roche joins us to help work through it. We discuss the challenge of measuring inflation, the relationship between inflation and the labor market, the potential future path of inflation and what to expect from the Fed going forward.

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In this episode, our most popular guest returns for his third appearance on Excess Returns. We talk with Kai Volatility founder Cem Karsan about a wide range of topics, including the future outlook for inflation, what the Fed is likely to do going forward, structured products, ODTE options, the importance of thinking in probabilities and a lot more. We also get some crumbs and get Cem's take on option dealer flows and the poten...

Those of us that invest using factors have been taught that there needs to be a reason why they work. We have been taught that for their excess returns to persist in the future, there should be a behavioral or risk-based explanation as to why they exist in the first place. If that assumption is wrong, it would call into question the validity of much of the work that has been done in asset pricing research and would also have signif...

In our latest episode of Show Us Your Portfolio, we are joined by Fairlead Strategies founder Katie Stockton. We discuss how Katie thinks about managing her personal portfolio and the investing process. We cover Katie's approach to asset allocation, how she incorporates technical analysis into her strategy, international diversification, the benefits of a financial advisor, her views on leaving money to kids and a lot more.

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In this episode, we speak with DBi founder Andrew Beer about his approach to managing his personal portfolio. We discuss how Andrew looks at his portfolio in the context of his life goals, his views on stocks and bonds, how he incorporates managed futures into his portfolio, his views on homeownership and charitable giving and a lot more.

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In this episode, we are privileged to be joined by Chris Davis, Chairman and Portfolio Manager of Davis Advisors. Chris has built an outstanding long-term record as a value investor and also serves on the board of both Berkshire Hathaway and the Coca-Cola Company. We discuss his process for analyzing companies and his owner earnings-based approach that led him to companies like Amazon when many value investors avoided them. We also...

Generative AI is probably the most rapidly developing technology we have ever seen. In this episode, we dig deep into it and its potential impact on both our lives and the investing world with ReSolve Asset Management CIO Adam Butler. Adam is one of the smartest people we know and has been dedicating a large amount of his free time to utilizing the technology, so we couldn't think of a better person to help us better understand...

We have now conducted over 100 interviews on Excess Returns. At the end of all of them, we have asked the same closing question: Based on your experience in markets and your research, if you could teach one lesson to the average investor, what would it be? In this episode, we bring all of their episodes together into one episode and share the answers from all our guests, including Guy Spier, Rob Arnott, Michael Mauboussin, Steve ...

This episode is the first part II our Show Us Your Portfolio series. When we originally spoke to Larry Swedroe, we were very intrigued by his use of illiquid alternatives within his portfolio. But we didn’t have time in the original interview to dig into the details of his strategy and the individual components of it. In this interview, we correct that. We discuss Larry’s overall view of alternatives, the unique sources of risk he ...

In this episode, we are joined by Wes Gray, founder of Alpha Architect and ETF Architect. We cover his biggest lessons from growing the businesses from a startup to over $5 billion in assets. We also discuss the rapid growth of ETFs and ETF Architect's mission to help firms launch them. And we get Wes' take on a variety of issues related to factor investing including the struggles of value in the past decade, how to tell wh...