Holy Smokes, Are the Lows In? (Ep. 135)

In this week’s episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, break down the surprising market rally, major developments in the U.S.-China trade situation, and what the latest economic signals mean for investors.

After weeks of tariff tension and fear of global slowdown, calmer heads may finally be prevailing. From trade negotiations to market breadth thrust indicators, and even a glimpse into the Fed’s next move—the guys cover it all.

Key Takeaways:

• Tariff Ceasefire with China:
  A surprise agreement between the U.S. and China rolls back reciprocal tariffs to 10%, averting the feared trade war escalation—though another 20% tariff still remains. The market reacted with a strong rally, showing signs of confidence.
• Trade Talks Reset, Not a Resolution:
  Though framed as a deal by the U.S., China calls it an “economic and trade consultation mechanism.” The agreement includes a 90-day pause and commitments to future negotiations. Non-tariff measures like export restrictions are also being lifted.
• Market Reaction Shows Strength:
  The Dow surged more than 1,000 points, and market internals and technicals suggest bullish momentum and historical patterns point to strong returns ahead.
• Bull Market Signals Everywhere:
  The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have officially entered new bull markets. Patterns like strong monthly returns and recoveries from steep drawdowns historically signal higher markets in the months to come.
• Fed Rate Cuts Delayed by Tariff Uncertainty:
  Despite soft April CPI data and signs that inflation is under control, the Fed remains cautious. Rate cuts that once seemed likely in June or July may now be pushed to September or later.
• U.S. Recession Risk Declining Again:
  After a temporary spike in recession probability post-Liberation Day, analysts are walking those forecasts back as data stabilizes and trade tensions ease.
• Long-Term Strategy Over Headlines:
  Ryan and Sonu emphasize the importance of staying invested through volatility. Market history shows the best days often come right after the worst—don’t miss them by panic selling.

 

Connect with Ryan: 

·       LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

·       X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu: 

·       LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

·       X: Sonu Varghese

 

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