January 15, 2024 • 13 mins
Dive into the intricacies of the 2024 real estate market in this enlightening episode of our podcast, where we unravel the complexities of mortgage rates and their impact on the housing landscape. We kick off the discussion by reflecting on the tumultuous journey of mortgage rates in 2023, highlighting the longest rising rate cycle in four decades that peaked in the third quarter. But the story takes a turn as we examine the dramatic fall in rates, marking the steepest one-month drop witnessed in 30 years.
Join us as we explore the various factors shaping this scenario, including economic slowdown, shifts in the labor market, and the substantial decrease in inflation rates. We also delve into the influence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy changes and the effects of global geopolitical tensions, such as the Ukraine-Russia and Israeli-Hamas conflicts, on the economy and mortgage rates.
This episode goes beyond just numbers; it's a deep dive into the overall real estate market dynamics. We discuss how decreasing mortgage rates fuel housing demand and subsequently affect property prices. Our conversation also covers the persistent issue of housing inventory shortages and its implications for home values. Plus, we offer expert advice for realtors and potential homebuyers on timing their market entry in 2024.
Tune in for a comprehensive understanding of the real estate market trends for the upcoming year, crucial for anyone interested in real estate, whether you're an industry professional, prospective homeowner, or a market enthusiast. Remember to subscribe for more insightful episodes on real estate and market trends!
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Jeff Smith (00:00):
So if I was a real estate agent, I'd be talking to
my clients about those dynamics,because that's not just a sales
pitch, that's reality.
Welcome to the show Fairways inFinance.
My name is Jeff Smith.
I've been in the mortgagebusiness for 16 years top
quarter percent LO nationwideand you know this podcast.
(00:23):
We want to talk about yourfinances, how to grow and
accumulate wealth and all thingsrelated to the mortgage
industry.
But we're golf lovers here aswell, so we're going to work in
some golf.
Don't worry for my golf loversout there.
We got you and I hope you enjoythe show.
Lots of exciting news happeningwith mortgage rates in the real
(00:43):
estate market.
I'm going to break downeverything you need to know
about where rates are at andwhat we can expect in 2024.
So 2023 was a tough year andeven dating back to the second
half of 2022, we were in a longrising rate cycle One of the
longest rising rate cycles overthe last 40 years, and rates got
as high as into the low 8% inthe third quarter of 2023.
(01:08):
And you know, at that point itlooked like there was no end in
sight.
Mortgage rates were justcontinuing to move higher.
But what goes up musteventually come down, and we've
seen mortgage rates come down ina big way.
So November was the singlebiggest drop in mortgage rates
in a one month period in thelast 30 years.
(01:28):
We saw a huge improvement withmortgage rates that bled into
December as well.
So we were as high as the low8s on a 30 year fixed.
At the end of October.
When we ended the year in 2023,we were down just to 6% on a 30
year fixed rate mortgage.
Just right at it.
We were almost into the highfives ending 2023.
(01:52):
So what was driving that?
Well, there's been a lotpercolating.
We've had an economy that isresilient but starting to slow
down, and the labor market isdefinitely slowing down.
And the signs are there thatthe economy as a whole is
continuing to slow down and hasrun its course on this cycle.
(02:12):
Inflation is down significantly.
Inflation is less than halfthat it was at the peak and it's
continuing to come down.
So we're seeing a lot ofimprovement from the inflation
side of things.
The Fed had their final rate cutin July of 2023.
They now set it their Decembermeeting that they're expecting
to cut rates cut three times in2024.
(02:34):
Stock market is predicting fourrate cuts in 2024.
It'll all be dependent on whatthe economy is doing, what the
global economy is doing, whatkind of geopolitical risks there
are.
And speaking of geopoliticalrisks, there's two big ones
right now, and it's the UkraineRussia conflict and the Israeli
Hamas conflict.
And you know that Israeli Hamasconflict.
(02:55):
If that were to break out into awider regional war, we would
see rates come down in a hurry.
It's important to understandthat mortgage rates are market
driven, so mortgages turn intolong term bonds.
Bonds are traded on Wall Streetand they will go up and down,
just like we see stocks go upand down based on market
(03:17):
conditions.
And so whenever we havedestabilizing events or when the
outlook for the economy is notgood, we see investors move
money into safer trades likebonds.
And when investors move moneyinto bonds, the prices go up and
the rates go down.
So when we if we saw anoutbreak of that Hamas Israel
(03:41):
conflict turn into a widerregional war, that's a very
destabilizing eventgeopolitically and we would
expect to see mortgage ratescome down along with that.
So all of that is workingtogether to bring mortgage rates
down and we expect that trendto continue as we're moving
forward here into 2024.
(04:02):
So if I was a realtor and I wastalking to my clients about is
this a good time to buy?
What should they expect for the2024 year, I would say yes,
right now is a great time to buy, and the reason that this is a
good time to buy is if ratescontinue to come down in 2024,.
You can look over the last 40,50 years of real estate trends
(04:27):
and whenever we see mortgagerates go down, we see home
prices go up, and the reason forthat is that lower rates drives
demand.
So as mortgage rates go down,more buyers come into the market
because the cost of housing islower.
More buyers equals more demand,which then pushes prices higher
.
The opposite happens when wesee rates go up.
(04:49):
Except for this last cycle whenrates went up and this was
again, like I said earlier, thelongest rising rate cycle of the
last 30 years home prices onlywent down 3%.
So the reason for that is thatthere is still a housing
inventory shortage across thecountry.
Builders, for a variety ofreasons, have not been able to
(05:12):
build enough homes to keep pacewith population growth and
demand.
It's very difficult forbuilders to offer housing at
lower costs to attract morefirst time home buyers.
So there's a lot going on therefrom an inventory perspective
and we would have expected homeprices to go down more than they
did during this last rate cycle.
That's why I think for surewe're primed to see home values
(05:36):
continue rising higher asmortgage rates come down.
So if rates are going to comedown significantly in 2024, that
means the market's going toheat up, it's going to become
more competitive and home pricesare going to go up.
So if you can buy a home beforethat transition happens and
before the market gets reallycompetitive, you give yourself
(05:57):
more options to choose from, yougive yourself more negotiating
leverage and then you're lockingin the home at a lower price.
Then, as rates continue to comedown, you can just refinance
the mortgage to a lower rate inpayment, but it'll all have been
based on a lower purchase priceif you got in sooner.
So if I was a real estate agent, I'd be talking to my clients
about those dynamics, becausethat's not just a sales pitch,
(06:20):
that's reality and a lot ofpeople didn't believe the real
estate community and I was oneof these people saying this in
2023 and 2022, we were sayingthat we didn't expect home
prices to go down in asignificant way because of the
shortage of inventory, andthat's what played out.
So that's what we're expectingto happen here in 2024, assuming
(06:42):
the rates go down.
That's not guaranteed.
It looks like the table is setfor that to happen, but it's all
based on market conditions inthe economy.
So it's all numbers and datadriven, it's all economy driven,
and nobody can for sure predictexactly what the economy is
going to do.
Now, if I was a client, I wouldbe.
(07:02):
I think it's very important forclients to understand the
difference between home priceand mortgage rate.
So I just explained some ofthis, but I want to repeat this
again because I think this is soimportant to understand.
The price of the home is whatthe market is doing.
At the time that you buy themortgage, payment that you make
(07:26):
is based upon the rate of themortgage, your property taxes,
your insurance and how much youowe on the mortgage.
Mortgage rates fluctuate yearover year based on what the
market is doing.
So if we expect mortgage ratesto go down and you buy a home
now, before they go down, youcan refinance the mortgage.
(07:47):
So when you refinance themortgage, you would work with a
lender like myself.
It's a little bit easier to do arefi than it is to do a
purchase.
You apply for a new mortgage.
You provide some income andasset paperwork.
We run a credit report.
Sometimes we need to do anappraisal.
Takes about 30 days to close.
But then you get a new mortgageat whatever current market
(08:08):
rates are.
Most cases you don't need to payanything out of pocket for a
refinance, with the exception ofan appraisal.
So it's not.
You know, you're not having tomake a down payment, you're not
having to come out of pocketwith a bunch of money and in
most cases you're going to skipone monthly payment on the
mortgage.
So you get a freebie on amortgage payment.
Now you, when you refinance,you drop your rate and you drop
(08:32):
your payment.
But it's all based on your loanbalance from when you
originally closed on the homeand then whatever you've paid
down on the mortgage betweenthat point and when you refi.
You know so if you wait for therates to come down and then get
a mortgage at that point,you're likely paying a higher
(08:52):
price for the home, which meansyou're going to have a higher
balance on your mortgage, evenif it's at a lower rate.
That balance and the rate mayoffset each other and your
payment may be about the sameanyway, but now you just bought
a home in a more competitivemarket where you had less
negotiating power.
I still have clients undercontract right now who have the
seller paying almost all oftheir closing costs.
(09:13):
That's a significantout-of-pocket savings.
So if I'm a client, and to allthe clients out there, I think
it's very important tounderstand the power of
refinancing and what that can dofor you.
It's also important tounderstand that investing in
real estate, just like investingin the stock market, it's a
long-term game.
So you want to get in as soonas you possibly can.
(09:35):
The sooner you get in, thelonger you have to be in the
market and the longer term thelonger horizon we look at in any
investment vehicle the biggerthe gains are.
For a short term, we can seeups and downs.
Longer term, we see stockmarket go up huge.
We see the real estate marketgo up huge.
So you want to get in and stayin the market as long as you
(09:57):
possibly can.
So as a realtor in this marketright now, you would still have
options to negotiate for closingcosts to be paid for for your
clients and I think that's hugefor every buyer in the
marketplace right now because ifyou can get the seller to pay
some money towards your closingcosts.
(10:18):
Let's say you get five grandfrom the seller.
That's five grand less that youpay out-of-pocket at closing.
That's dollar for dollardifference.
Let's say you got 3% of thepurchase price to go toward your
closing costs.
Well, now we've got enoughclosing costs concession from
the seller to cover all theclosing costs and buy down the
rate and get you a lower ratethan market rates are at the
(10:40):
current time.
So getting that concession fromthe seller is huge.
And when you're negotiatingconcessions from a seller and
working with a great realtor,they know how this works and
they know how to do this for you.
So that's why it's so importantto work with a realtor who's
got experience and knows thatthey're doing.
But let's say that you're goingto buy a home for $600,000.
(11:03):
The home is listed for $600,000.
You're looking at it and you'rethinking, okay, maybe this
home's been for sale for 45 days, maybe we'll come in with an
offer price of $580,000.
Instead of offering $580,000,what I would do is offer
$600,000 and ask for 3% inclosing costs from the seller.
(11:24):
So 3% would be $18,000 inclosing costs concession from
the seller, so that $18,000comes out of the seller's
proceeds at closing.
So that's equivalent to a$582,000 purchase price offer
with no closing costs concession.
But now if you're the buyer andyou've got that $18,000 in
(11:45):
closing costs, all of yourclosing costs are covered, plus
there's money left over to buydown your rate.
So you're getting a lower ratein payment and you're not paying
for any of the closing costsout of pocket.
So you've saved yourself 18grand.
At closing You've locked in alower rate and then if you're
refinancing that mortgage in 12or 18 months, there's a little
(12:05):
bit in closing costs when yourefi.
Now you're only paying closingcosts one time because you
purchased a home for zeroclosing costs.
So as a realtor in this market,there's still opportunity to
negotiate those types of things.
As the rates go down and themarket heats up more, it's going
to become very difficult.
We're not going to really seeany seller concessions, as we
(12:26):
normally don't during acompetitive market.
So that's what we're seeinghappen with rates.
It's an exciting time for realestate.
I think we're going to go on anextremely good run over the
next two, three, five years.
People buying a home right nowin this market, my gut feeling
is that they're going to doextremely well on that
investment over the next five to10 years.
So if you have the means to getinto a home, if you have
(12:48):
aspirations to be a homeowner,this is a year to take a serious
look at it.
Do what you can to make ithappen.
Shoot me a DM, send me an email.
I'd be happy to answer anyquestions or help you look at
your options for a mortgagepre-approval.
Hey guys, thanks for listening.
I hope you enjoyed the show andgot some valuable information
out of it.
I want to help to educateothers and help people grow
(13:09):
their business and build wealth,and I can only do that with
referrals and your help gettingthe word out about this podcast.
So if you come across someoneyou think of benefit from this,
please share it with them, andif there's somebody who comes to
mind, a five star review wouldgo a long way in helping me to
grow this podcast and grow thebrand.
So appreciate your support.
So if I was a real estate agent, I'd be talking to
my clients about those dynamics,because that's not just a sales
pitch, that's reality.
Welcome to the show Fairways inFinance.
My name is Jeff Smith.
I've been in the mortgagebusiness for 16 years top
quarter percent LO nationwideand you know this podcast.
(00:23):
We want to talk about yourfinances, how to grow and
accumulate wealth and all thingsrelated to the mortgage
industry.
But we're golf lovers here aswell, so we're going to work in
some golf.
Don't worry for my golf loversout there.
We got you and I hope you enjoythe show.
Lots of exciting news happeningwith mortgage rates in the real
(00:43):
estate market.
I'm going to break downeverything you need to know
about where rates are at andwhat we can expect in 2024.
So 2023 was a tough year andeven dating back to the second
half of 2022, we were in a longrising rate cycle One of the
longest rising rate cycles overthe last 40 years, and rates got
as high as into the low 8% inthe third quarter of 2023.
(01:08):
And you know, at that point itlooked like there was no end in
sight.
Mortgage rates were justcontinuing to move higher.
But what goes up musteventually come down, and we've
seen mortgage rates come down ina big way.
So November was the singlebiggest drop in mortgage rates
in a one month period in thelast 30 years.
(01:28):
We saw a huge improvement withmortgage rates that bled into
December as well.
So we were as high as the low8s on a 30 year fixed.
At the end of October.
When we ended the year in 2023,we were down just to 6% on a 30
year fixed rate mortgage.
Just right at it.
We were almost into the highfives ending 2023.
(01:52):
So what was driving that?
Well, there's been a lotpercolating.
We've had an economy that isresilient but starting to slow
down, and the labor market isdefinitely slowing down.
And the signs are there thatthe economy as a whole is
continuing to slow down and hasrun its course on this cycle.
(02:12):
Inflation is down significantly.
Inflation is less than halfthat it was at the peak and it's
continuing to come down.
So we're seeing a lot ofimprovement from the inflation
side of things.
The Fed had their final rate cutin July of 2023.
They now set it their Decembermeeting that they're expecting
to cut rates cut three times in2024.
(02:34):
Stock market is predicting fourrate cuts in 2024.
It'll all be dependent on whatthe economy is doing, what the
global economy is doing, whatkind of geopolitical risks there
are.
And speaking of geopoliticalrisks, there's two big ones
right now, and it's the UkraineRussia conflict and the Israeli
Hamas conflict.
And you know that Israeli Hamasconflict.
(02:55):
If that were to break out into awider regional war, we would
see rates come down in a hurry.
It's important to understandthat mortgage rates are market
driven, so mortgages turn intolong term bonds.
Bonds are traded on Wall Streetand they will go up and down,
just like we see stocks go upand down based on market
(03:17):
conditions.
And so whenever we havedestabilizing events or when the
outlook for the economy is notgood, we see investors move
money into safer trades likebonds.
And when investors move moneyinto bonds, the prices go up and
the rates go down.
So when we if we saw anoutbreak of that Hamas Israel
(03:41):
conflict turn into a widerregional war, that's a very
destabilizing eventgeopolitically and we would
expect to see mortgage ratescome down along with that.
So all of that is workingtogether to bring mortgage rates
down and we expect that trendto continue as we're moving
forward here into 2024.
(04:02):
So if I was a realtor and I wastalking to my clients about is
this a good time to buy?
What should they expect for the2024 year, I would say yes,
right now is a great time to buy, and the reason that this is a
good time to buy is if ratescontinue to come down in 2024,.
You can look over the last 40,50 years of real estate trends
(04:27):
and whenever we see mortgagerates go down, we see home
prices go up, and the reason forthat is that lower rates drives
demand.
So as mortgage rates go down,more buyers come into the market
because the cost of housing islower.
More buyers equals more demand,which then pushes prices higher
.
The opposite happens when wesee rates go up.
(04:49):
Except for this last cycle whenrates went up and this was
again, like I said earlier, thelongest rising rate cycle of the
last 30 years home prices onlywent down 3%.
So the reason for that is thatthere is still a housing
inventory shortage across thecountry.
Builders, for a variety ofreasons, have not been able to
(05:12):
build enough homes to keep pacewith population growth and
demand.
It's very difficult forbuilders to offer housing at
lower costs to attract morefirst time home buyers.
So there's a lot going on therefrom an inventory perspective
and we would have expected homeprices to go down more than they
did during this last rate cycle.
That's why I think for surewe're primed to see home values
(05:36):
continue rising higher asmortgage rates come down.
So if rates are going to comedown significantly in 2024, that
means the market's going toheat up, it's going to become
more competitive and home pricesare going to go up.
So if you can buy a home beforethat transition happens and
before the market gets reallycompetitive, you give yourself
(05:57):
more options to choose from, yougive yourself more negotiating
leverage and then you're lockingin the home at a lower price.
Then, as rates continue to comedown, you can just refinance
the mortgage to a lower rate inpayment, but it'll all have been
based on a lower purchase priceif you got in sooner.
So if I was a real estate agent, I'd be talking to my clients
about those dynamics, becausethat's not just a sales pitch,
(06:20):
that's reality and a lot ofpeople didn't believe the real
estate community and I was oneof these people saying this in
2023 and 2022, we were sayingthat we didn't expect home
prices to go down in asignificant way because of the
shortage of inventory, andthat's what played out.
So that's what we're expectingto happen here in 2024, assuming
(06:42):
the rates go down.
That's not guaranteed.
It looks like the table is setfor that to happen, but it's all
based on market conditions inthe economy.
So it's all numbers and datadriven, it's all economy driven,
and nobody can for sure predictexactly what the economy is
going to do.
Now, if I was a client, I wouldbe.
(07:02):
I think it's very important forclients to understand the
difference between home priceand mortgage rate.
So I just explained some ofthis, but I want to repeat this
again because I think this is soimportant to understand.
The price of the home is whatthe market is doing.
At the time that you buy themortgage, payment that you make
(07:26):
is based upon the rate of themortgage, your property taxes,
your insurance and how much youowe on the mortgage.
Mortgage rates fluctuate yearover year based on what the
market is doing.
So if we expect mortgage ratesto go down and you buy a home
now, before they go down, youcan refinance the mortgage.
(07:47):
So when you refinance themortgage, you would work with a
lender like myself.
It's a little bit easier to do arefi than it is to do a
purchase.
You apply for a new mortgage.
You provide some income andasset paperwork.
We run a credit report.
Sometimes we need to do anappraisal.
Takes about 30 days to close.
But then you get a new mortgageat whatever current market
(08:08):
rates are.
Most cases you don't need to payanything out of pocket for a
refinance, with the exception ofan appraisal.
So it's not.
You know, you're not having tomake a down payment, you're not
having to come out of pocketwith a bunch of money and in
most cases you're going to skipone monthly payment on the
mortgage.
So you get a freebie on amortgage payment.
Now you, when you refinance,you drop your rate and you drop
(08:32):
your payment.
But it's all based on your loanbalance from when you
originally closed on the homeand then whatever you've paid
down on the mortgage betweenthat point and when you refi.
You know so if you wait for therates to come down and then get
a mortgage at that point,you're likely paying a higher
(08:52):
price for the home, which meansyou're going to have a higher
balance on your mortgage, evenif it's at a lower rate.
That balance and the rate mayoffset each other and your
payment may be about the sameanyway, but now you just bought
a home in a more competitivemarket where you had less
negotiating power.
I still have clients undercontract right now who have the
seller paying almost all oftheir closing costs.
(09:13):
That's a significantout-of-pocket savings.
So if I'm a client, and to allthe clients out there, I think
it's very important tounderstand the power of
refinancing and what that can dofor you.
It's also important tounderstand that investing in
real estate, just like investingin the stock market, it's a
long-term game.
So you want to get in as soonas you possibly can.
(09:35):
The sooner you get in, thelonger you have to be in the
market and the longer term thelonger horizon we look at in any
investment vehicle the biggerthe gains are.
For a short term, we can seeups and downs.
Longer term, we see stockmarket go up huge.
We see the real estate marketgo up huge.
So you want to get in and stayin the market as long as you
(09:57):
possibly can.
So as a realtor in this marketright now, you would still have
options to negotiate for closingcosts to be paid for for your
clients and I think that's hugefor every buyer in the
marketplace right now because ifyou can get the seller to pay
some money towards your closingcosts.
(10:18):
Let's say you get five grandfrom the seller.
That's five grand less that youpay out-of-pocket at closing.
That's dollar for dollardifference.
Let's say you got 3% of thepurchase price to go toward your
closing costs.
Well, now we've got enoughclosing costs concession from
the seller to cover all theclosing costs and buy down the
rate and get you a lower ratethan market rates are at the
(10:40):
current time.
So getting that concession fromthe seller is huge.
And when you're negotiatingconcessions from a seller and
working with a great realtor,they know how this works and
they know how to do this for you.
So that's why it's so importantto work with a realtor who's
got experience and knows thatthey're doing.
But let's say that you're goingto buy a home for $600,000.
(11:03):
The home is listed for $600,000.
You're looking at it and you'rethinking, okay, maybe this
home's been for sale for 45 days, maybe we'll come in with an
offer price of $580,000.
Instead of offering $580,000,what I would do is offer
$600,000 and ask for 3% inclosing costs from the seller.
(11:24):
So 3% would be $18,000 inclosing costs concession from
the seller, so that $18,000comes out of the seller's
proceeds at closing.
So that's equivalent to a$582,000 purchase price offer
with no closing costs concession.
But now if you're the buyer andyou've got that $18,000 in
(11:45):
closing costs, all of yourclosing costs are covered, plus
there's money left over to buydown your rate.
So you're getting a lower ratein payment and you're not paying
for any of the closing costsout of pocket.
So you've saved yourself 18grand.
At closing You've locked in alower rate and then if you're
refinancing that mortgage in 12or 18 months, there's a little
(12:05):
bit in closing costs when yourefi.
Now you're only paying closingcosts one time because you
purchased a home for zeroclosing costs.
So as a realtor in this market,there's still opportunity to
negotiate those types of things.
As the rates go down and themarket heats up more, it's going
to become very difficult.
We're not going to really seeany seller concessions, as we
(12:26):
normally don't during acompetitive market.
So that's what we're seeinghappen with rates.
It's an exciting time for realestate.
I think we're going to go on anextremely good run over the
next two, three, five years.
People buying a home right nowin this market, my gut feeling
is that they're going to doextremely well on that
investment over the next five to10 years.
So if you have the means to getinto a home, if you have
(12:48):
aspirations to be a homeowner,this is a year to take a serious
look at it.
Do what you can to make ithappen.
Shoot me a DM, send me an email.
I'd be happy to answer anyquestions or help you look at
your options for a mortgagepre-approval.
Hey guys, thanks for listening.
I hope you enjoyed the show andgot some valuable information
out of it.
I want to help to educateothers and help people grow
(13:09):
their business and build wealth,and I can only do that with
referrals and your help gettingthe word out about this podcast.
So if you come across someoneyou think of benefit from this,
please share it with them, andif there's somebody who comes to
mind, a five star review wouldgo a long way in helping me to
grow this podcast and grow thebrand.
So appreciate your support.
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Does hearing about a true crime case always leave you scouring the internet for the truth behind the story? Dive into your next mystery with Crime Junkie. Every Monday, join your host Ashley Flowers as she unravels all the details of infamous and underreported true crime cases with her best friend Brit Prawat. From cold cases to missing persons and heroes in our community who seek justice, Crime Junkie is your destination for theories and stories you won’t hear anywhere else. Whether you're a seasoned true crime enthusiast or new to the genre, you'll find yourself on the edge of your seat awaiting a new episode every Monday. If you can never get enough true crime... Congratulations, you’ve found your people. Follow to join a community of Crime Junkies! Crime Junkie is presented by audiochuck Media Company.
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If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.