July 7, 2025 • 30 mins
🎧 Markets Ate the Future: 6 Months of Gains in 6 Weeks, What Happens Now?
💡 Welcome to Finance Frontier, part of the Finance Frontier AI podcast network—where macro meets cinematic. Every episode turns chaos into clarity—decoding the signals that separate what’s noise, what’s priced, and what could break next.
In this episode, Max, Sophia, and Charlie walk you through what just happened to the market’s 2025 roadmap. The S&P 500 blew past 6,200. The Nasdaq 100 cleared 22,600. Six months of projected gains front-loaded into six weeks. But underneath the melt-up sits auction stress, insider selling, and fragile trust in AI CapEx—raising the question: what happens now?
We break down the updated scenario skew—Bull, Base, Bear, Black Swan—and show how the Magnificent Seven’s AI spending holds the floor until it doesn’t. You’ll hear why Treasury auction bid-to-cover ratios, July’s tariff deadlines, and insider Form 4s are now the hidden fuse points. And you’ll get the Insider’s Playbook—how to trim, hedge, and protect when the upside is already spent.
📰 Key Topics Covered
🔹 Overshoot: The rally ate the entire bull case for 2025 by July—compressing scenario bands to the edge.
🔹 Scenario Lock-In: Bull 30%, Base 50%, Bear 15%, Black Swan <5%—the real bands traders must defend now.
🔹 Treasury Auctions: 30Y bid-to-cover ratios softening, tail stress signals building, foreign buyers stepping back.
🔹 AI CapEx Floor: $390B+ projected for 2025—Magnificent Seven concentration risk makes the floor fragile.
🔹 Reflex Loop: Why insider selling, yield spikes, and a weak auction can flip trust overnight.
🔹 Insider’s Playbook: Convex Shield, trim triggers, and pattern memory—how to stay solvent when scenarios shift fast.
📉 What’s Next for Listeners?
Max, Sophia, and Charlie challenge you to read the signals under the surface. Watch auctions. Watch insiders. Check the scenario bands weekly. And remember: every reflex loop is the same—trust holds until it breaks.
🚀 The Big Picture: Price isn’t the story. Trust is. When the market front-runs its own upside, the floor beneath your portfolio is just as thin as the next missed bid. This episode gives you the guardrails—now it’s your move to use them.
🎯 Key Takeaways
✅ The May–June melt-up devoured the upside—leaving the downside tail heavier.
✅ Treasury auction stress, sticky CPI, and insider sales are your real scenario triggers.
✅ AI CapEx is the floor—until it becomes the bubble that cracks it.
✅ The Convex Shield Strategy is your insurance—cheap when calm, priceless when the loop flips.
✅ Pattern memory is not theory—it’s your edge when history repeats.
🌐 Stay Ahead of the Market
📊 See the live Macro Forecast and updated scenario bands anytime at FinanceFrontierAI.com/p/macro-forecast — real-time stress tests, auction signal tracks, and where the reflex loop is hiding.
📬 Sign up for The 5× Edge—weekly asymmetric plays, auction maps, insider sentiment, and volatility triggers you won’t find in your feed.
🎯 Got a macro angle or hedge strategy that fits? Apply through the Pitch Page—we spotlight traders, founders, and funds if there’s a clear win-win: FinanceFrontierAI.com/p/collaborate
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:10):
Picture this Friday, 4 O 2:00 PMWall Street.
The closing bell hits the New York Stock Exchange, but there
is no roar, no high fives, no traders pouring out for drinks.
Just a room full of people staring at screens that say more
than they should. The S&P 500 is at 6200 for the
(00:31):
NASDAQ 100 is at 22,679. Those numbers were not supposed
to happen in July. They were for December.
But the market ate six months ofgains in six weeks.
That is not a rally. That is the future stolen from
itself. If you stand here long enough,
you feel the air change. It is like watching an auction
(00:54):
where the biggest bidder steps back.
Suddenly the floor is thin. There is no one left to catch
the bid. You feel it under your shoes.
The floor creaks. That is what traders do not say
when they stare at those screens.
The numbers do not lie. The S&P is up 12.8% this year.
The NASDAQ is up 20.6%. But earnings did not double
(01:17):
overnight. AI spending did not make debt
disappear. The market just priced in hope.
Early tariff freezes, Big tech Cap X.
But the real test comes later. August auctions, Q2 earnings,
inflation that refuses to fade. It is like paying for a meal
before you see the bill. We have seen this movie before.
(01:39):
In 2000 itwas.com Euphoria. In 2021 it was the post lockdown
melt up. Each time the rally eats the
future first, then it starves itself.
The cracks do not start on the charts.
They show up in places nobody watches.
The bid to cover slipping on a treasury auction, insider
selling when the headlines say hold.
(02:02):
That is how trust breaks. So what happens now?
That is the only question that matters.
Six months of upside gone. Five months left on the clock.
The base case ceiling is thin, the downside tail is fat, and if
you are not watching the signals, you do not know when
the trap door opens. Welcome to Finance Frontier, you
(02:24):
are listening to the show that makes sense of markets when the
story does not add up. We are hosting this one right
here in New York. Not in a quiet studio, not at
some beach resort right in the belly of the beast.
This week we set up near the Detdesks, two blocks from the
Treasury auction house, where traders test if buyers still
(02:45):
believe. If you stand outside, you feel
the pressure in the air. Concrete towers that do not care
what you think. Metal doors that never close.
Late at night, you can still seebond desks lit up like
Christmas. Not because they want to be
there, because they have to. This city does not sleep because
trust never does. If you want to know when
(03:07):
liquidity cracks, you do not watch from far away.
You stand where the money moves.That is why we are here.
I am Max Vanguard. I use Grok to see when the story
breaks, when the buyers vanish, when the screen says up but the
real money says no thanks. That is my edge.
I am Sophia Sterling. I run on Chat GPTI track bond
(03:30):
auctions. I read credit spreads.
I watch earnings shifts before they land in your feed.
My edge is simple. I see where the stress hides
before you feel it. I am Charlie Graham.
I use Gemini to remember the mistakes people repeat.
I see the patterns, the failed bids, the insider sales, the
(03:50):
reflex loop that flips greed to fear.
That is what you hire me for. Share this episode with a friend
and help keep us in business while we build the smartest
macro community online. Up next, the May and June blow
off the forecast that broke and the new scenario table that
shows how thin your margin really is.
(04:11):
Stay with us. You might think six months of
gains in six weeks is just a headline, so let us walk through
what really happened start of May.
The S&P 500 opened near 5500. The NASDAQ 100 opened just under
18,800. That was the map.
That was the base case we thought we had.
(04:33):
Now listen to how fast the storychanged.
By the end of May, the S&P jumped to 5935.
The NASDAQ pushed past 21,491. Some people said that was the
melt up. They were wrong.
It was just the start. June turned a fast move into a
(04:54):
time theft. The S&P closed June at 6204.
The NASDAQ 100 closed at 22,679,and in early July it ticked even
higher, near 22,867. So if you think about it, the
S&P ran almost 700 points since May opened.
(05:14):
The NASDAQ jumped almost 4000 inthat same window.
That is not just momentum, that is a calendar break.
Now think about the old forecastback in May.
The expected value for the S&P for year end was about plus
4.4%. The Nasdaq's was plus 10.2%.
(05:34):
You know what happened? By July, we already passed those
targets. So the expected upside for the
rest of the year got thinner by the hour.
The rally did not bend the curve.
It ate it alive. So the question is, why did this
happen? The big fuel was simple.
AI capital spending hit like a freight train.
(05:55):
The big tech names pushed more than $390 billion this year into
AI build outs, cloud capacity chips, data centers, all of it
stacked. That became the floor.
And it was not just AI. You got the policy tailwinds,
too. The first Fed rate cut came in
December 2024. That cracked the door for more
(06:18):
cuts this year. Tariff freezes between the US
and China and Vietnam added another risk on push.
Liquidity stayed loose because the narrative said soft landing
and disinflation were guaranteed.
But that was the easy part. The catch is this.
Earnings in Q1 came in hot, about plus 13.4% for the S&P.
(06:40):
But look closer, Q2 is projectedat +5.
So you pulled a lot of forward earnings early, the market price
to perfection already. That means you now sit at these
new highs with less room for disappointment.
The future got squeezed into thepresent.
Here's what that really means. A front loaded rally is like
(07:00):
taking your parachute and using it to glide higher.
It feels safe until the air shifts and when you look around
and see you are already at the top band of the scenario skew,
you realize you don't have much left to soften the landing.
That is why the overshoot matters.
It is not just points on a chart, it is time you cannot get
(07:21):
back. The numbers are clear.
May give you 7.9% on the S&P, 14.3% on the NASDAQ.
June added another 4 to 5% on top.
The total year to date is 12.8% and 20.6%.
You do not get those moves for free.
They cost you your cushion. And now you have to defend that
(07:42):
cushion when the real signals hit Treasury auctions, the July
tariff deadline, the next CPI print.
That is the layer. And no one wants to talk about
when the chart says new highs. But that is the layer you must
watch if you want to keep what you made.
So here is the simple truth. May and June were not melt up
months, they were the future pulled forward.
(08:05):
The only thing left to ask is what the new scenario table says
about what happens now. Next we lay it out.
Bull, bass, bear and the Black Swan that stays below your feet.
The August lock in is not a guess, it is the real skew that
traders are betting their jobs on.
Stay with us. So now you know what May and
(08:26):
June did. They did not stretch the rally,
they compressed it. Six months of gains in six weeks
forced us to tear up the old map.
So here is the table that matters.
Now the new August scenario lockin and if you trade this market
without it, you are flying blind.
Here's how it breaks down. The bull case sits at 30%
(08:48):
probability. That means you still get a shot
at S&P moving to around 6500 to 6600.
The NASDAQ could push to 23,500 or even 24,000 if AI spending
holds strong and you get a real earnings surprise in Q3.
But the bull needs clean inflation prints and no auction
(09:10):
stress. The base case is the real heart,
50%. That means it is more likely
than not that we hover between 6200 and 6300 on the S&P.
The NASDAQ holds 22,500 to 23,000.
That range reflects A digestion phase.
(09:31):
The rally happened early. Now the market has to prove it
did not steal growth from the back half.
This is the soft landing bed, but it is priced tight.
The bare case is not just for doomsayers.
It sits at 15%. That is real.
That means if the next Treasury auction fails, or the next CPI
(09:53):
print runs hot, or insiders start selling too fast, you
could see the S&P drop back to around 5900.
The NASDAQ could slip to 21,500.Not a crash, but a reset that
takes the air out of the melt up.
And then there is the Black Swan.
Less than 5% but you do not ignore it.
(10:14):
That is the scenario where a major trade war shock hits, or a
yield spike cracks the trust in the treasury market or a cyber
event freezes the auction board.If that tail shows up, you do
not get to plan. You just watch the floor drop.
That is why you hedge. So what changed since May?
One, the old expected value is already behind us. 2, The skew
(10:38):
is now front loaded. The AI spending that kept the
floor is still strong, but you have to watch for signs it peeks
out. Three, the policy tailwinds are
real but fragile. Tariff deadlines, Treasury
auctions, CPI and PCE prints. The macro floor is there until
it is not. That is the trap people miss.
(11:01):
The scenario table is not some number you slap on a slide deck.
It is your guardrail. It says how much room you have
to breathe when the next shock hits, and how thin your margin
really is when you already ate half the upside before August.
So keep the band simple. Bull 30% base 50, Bear 15 blacks
(11:21):
one under 5. If you want to stay solvent, you
trade the odds, not the hope. And watch the signals that
decide which box you land in thenext 30 year Treasury auction,
the July tariff pause, expiration, core CPI that will
not fade, insider sales that nobody notices until the chart
cracks. If those line up, the table
(11:44):
shifts in real time. Next we break down what holds
this table up. The real driver is AI capital
spending. The Magnificent 7 have been the
floor, but they can be the trap too.
That is what we tackle next. Stay with us.
If you think this rally stands on air, think again.
(12:05):
The real floor under these scenario bands is one thing.
AI capital spending, The numbersare huge.
In 2025 alone, the biggest tech and cloud names are on track to
pour more than $390 billion intoAI build outs, data centers,
chips, training infrastructure, all of it.
(12:26):
This is what gave the market itsstructural safety net in May and
June. Companies like NVIDIA,
Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Google,each one playing a piece of the
same story. The idea that if you own the
pipes and the chips and the servers, you own the future.
And to be fair, it worked. It gave the NASDAQ its 20.6%
(12:49):
year to date surge. It propped up the S&P when other
sectors dragged their feet. But here is what people miss.
The Magnificent 7 might be the floor today, but they can become
the trap tomorrow. Think back to the.com days.
Cisco was once the backbone of the Internet build out.
Then the spending wave peaked. The same with Dell, Sun
(13:11):
Microsystems. When capital investment peaks
faster than profits catch up, you end up with a gap you cannot
hedge. Let me break that down.
When big tech pumps billions into AI, they are not buying
profits today, they are buying the hope of margins tomorrow.
If earnings slip or guidance pulls back, the entire floor
(13:32):
shifts. That is why scenario skew gets
fragile the deeper you lean on one theme.
And this is where concentration risk turns into reflex risk.
NVIDIA just flipped Microsoft tobecome the biggest company in
the world for a minute. But Nvidia's own CEO has a 10B51
selling plan for hundreds of millions of dollars worth of
shares this year. That does not mean panic, but it
(13:55):
does mean supply. And when insiders sell into
perfection, the floor you thought was there gets thin.
Look at the weight. The Magnificent 7 now make up
more than 34% of the S&P 500's market cap.
That means when these names move, they do not just shift
their own charts, they bend the entire index.
So if AI CapEx slows or forward guidance disappoints, you do not
(14:19):
have time to tiptoe out. The move hits you before you see
it. People love to say AI is the new
electricity. Maybe, But you cannot trade an
idea like a utility when capitalinvestment is this aggressive,
it has to deliver earnings breadth.
If you want to see if the floor holds, watch if AI spending
spreads beyond the seven names. If only a handful keep buying
(14:44):
while the rest slow down, the safety net rips.
The early signals matter. Cloud capacity expansion
announcements, CapEx line items on earnings calls, insider sales
that match big buyback headlines.
If you see a squeeze there, you know the floor is not as deep as
you think. And then there's the political
layer. If the trade war flares up again
(15:06):
or tariffs snap back, that hits supply chains for chips.
That hits spending. That hits trust.
So when we say AI cap X is the floor, we mean it is
conditional. And that condition is staying
fragile. So remember this, the scenario
table you heard in segment 3 is not just lines and bands, it is
(15:28):
glued together. By this spending, if the glue
cracks you do not get a gentle drift, you get a fast reset and
the only edge is to see the cracks before they go
mainstream. Next, we walk through the real
world triggers that test this glue Treasury auctions, tariff
deadlines, yield stress and the auction tail signals that
(15:49):
traders whisper about but never say on TV.
Stay with us. Now you have the scenario table
and you know what holds it up. But here is the part traders
hate talking about. The cracks do not show up in big
headlines. They show up in big headlines.
They show up in the quiet places.
One of those is the Treasury Auction Board.
(16:11):
Boring when it works, terrifyingwhen it does not.
Think about this. The last 30 year Treasury
auction drew a bid to cover of just 243.
That is low, well below the fivetimes cover you want to see.
What that means is simple. Fewer buyers showed up.
The tail widened. The government had to pay more
(16:32):
yield to clear the debt. And when that happens, trust
shifts. If you stand on that auction
floor in New York, you feel it. The room is not loud.
Phones buzz, desks whisper. But when a bid comes in light,
you see the ripple on the screens.
Traders adjust risk bond desks markup yields.
Suddenly your cost of capital isnot what you thought it was, and
(16:56):
every stock that rode a free money story feels it in real
time. A.
Week auction is not a recession headline, but it feeds one
because if yields pop higher andthe Fed looks trapped, you do
not get the soft landing story for free.
It gets traded back out and whenthat bid to cover ratio keeps
slipping, it is not just a one day problem, it is a stress test
(17:18):
on your scenario skew. Now add the trade layer.
The 90 day tariff pause between the US and China expires July
9th. If that does not roll over, you
get an instant risk. Off wave tariffs do not just hit
headline prices. They push inflation back up,
they squeeze supply chains, and they make the Fed look stuck
(17:40):
between higher yields and stickyCPI.
That is the crack that bleeds into the next auction.
It ties straight to your floor. Think about AI CapEx.
If trade friction jumps, you getchip supply risk.
If chip supply slows, you hit big tech spending.
And if tech spending flinches, you feel it in the NASDAQ before
(18:00):
you read it in the earnings release.
That is the reflex loop. Nobody wants to see until they
do. And then layer and insider
selling. Big names like NVIDIA CEO have
structured plans to sell shares through 10B51 programs.
Those are legal, but when you see mega cap insiders exit into
an overbought chart you have to ask if they see something you do
(18:23):
not. It is not panic, it is supply,
and supply shows up in the auction tales.
Here is what people forget. A treasury auction that misses
by half a point can move the whole bond curve.
If the long end spikes. You feel it in mortgage rates,
corporate loans, credit spreads,the cost of rolling debt.
(18:45):
The floor that looks solid in May suddenly has hairline
fractures. And it is not just about traders
in New York. Foreign buyers matter too.
If you see foreign demand dry up, the bid to cover ratio
softens. That is when you know the market
is watching more than the US balance sheet.
It is watching political risk, trade risk, geopolitical trust.
(19:07):
So what do you do? You do not panic, but you watch
the signals. The next 30 year Treasury
auction is August 7th. If the bid to cover comes in
weak again and insiders keep selling and tariffs flip back
on, you do not wait for a meltdown headline.
You tighten your bands. You clip some upside.
You reload the convex shield. That is how pros run the table
(19:30):
while everyone else waits for permission.
Remember, a weak auction is not just a number, it is a warning
shot. A tariff snap back is not just a
headline, it is a stress test. And when they line up, you get a
reflex loop that traders try to hide until it hits the chart.
Next we step back. We have seen this movie
(19:53):
beforethe.com blow off the post lockdown melt up.
A front loaded rally that eats the future always runs into the
same wall. The pattern echoes and the
signals repeat. Stay with us.
So here is the part that makes traders nervous.
You think what you just saw in May and June was new.
It is not. The pattern is older than any
(20:14):
model. Front loaded rallies that eat
the future always leave the samefingerprint.
It starts with too much trust. It ends when that trust snaps.
Think about the year 2000. The NASDAQ ran up 90% in 12
months. the.com boom felt endless.
Cisco, Sun Microsystems. Every new tech name pulled
(20:36):
forward a decade of growth untilthe auction.
Stress showed up, bid cover slipped, corporate insiders
cashed out, the floor cracked. And once the reflex loop kicked
in, there was no soft landing. The pattern repeated in 2021.
Post lockdown, the market front ran the reopening.
Tech and crypto pumped retail cash flooded in.
(20:59):
Liquidity stayed easy. Everyone thought the Fed had
their back forever. But inflation did not listen.
Bond auctions got wobbly, and when the Fed turned the first
tiny screw, the reflex loop slammed shut.
Traders learned that trust is not free.
This is what a reflex loop really is.
It is not some fancy hedge fund word.
(21:21):
It is when people see the floor disappear and they rush to the
same exit at the same time. The more crowded the position,
the faster the snap. That is why the Magnificent 7
matters so much now. They hold up the index, but they
are the same door everyone wantsto use when the signals flip.
And it is not just 20 years ago.Look back to 1987.
(21:43):
The market ran hot. New products like portfolio
insurance told traders they could not lose.
Then one auction cracked, a yield spike hit, and on Black
Monday, the Dow dropped more than 20% in a day.
No modern screens, no AI models,just human fear repeating the
same mistake. What ties all of these together
(22:05):
is simple. When trust breaks, it breaks
fast. Charts do not warn you, they
just reflect the snap. The real signal lives
underneath. Auction tails that grow longer
bid to cover ratios that soften,insiders that sell while the
headlines still say by the dip. The signals are always there.
You just have to care enough to watch.
(22:28):
And that is why we push this so hard, because every cycle
traders think this time is different.
This time AI will keep the floor.
This time the Fed will not flinch.
This time, retail flows will stay sticky, but no cycle has
ever avoided the reflex loop. It is human nature.
You pile in early, you brag on the way up, then you scramble
(22:51):
when the exit gets crowded. So here is the point.
You do not fear the reflex loop,you prepare for it.
You do not sell everything just because an auction misses by
half a point, but you do not ignore the pattern when you see
the pieces line up. You trim risk, You tighten your
bands, you hedge the tail. That is how you survive when
(23:14):
trust snaps. And the signals are stacking up
now. A weak Treasury auction.
A tariff surprise. A sticky CPI print that holds
the Fed back. An insider's sale that shows up
on Form 4 while you are watchingyour watch list.
None of these break you alone, but together they flip the loop.
That is what our pattern memory is for.
(23:37):
Not to scare you, to remind you that when you see the same
fingerprints, you do not have toguess.
You act and you stay standing when others panic.
Next, we show you how the pros do that.
You have the table, you have thesignals, but you need a plan.
That is the insider's playbook. The trim triggers the hedge.
(24:01):
The simple moves that protect you when the future is already
gone stay with us. This is where traders either
keep what they made or give it back.
You have your scenario table, you have the cracks that matter,
but you still need the moves that protect you when the floor
wobbles. That is the insider's playbook.
The simple steps the best desks use when the upside is already
(24:24):
pulled forward. Start with the first rule, trim
when it feels wrong. You never want to sell when your
screen says new high. That is when greed says wait,
but that is when the reflex loopwaits to strike.
If you ride the melt up too far you do not have dry powder to
reload when the floor resets. The pros trim on green days, not
(24:46):
red ones. Next is your convex shield.
That is not just a fancy hedge fund trick.
It means you buy small protection that grows big.
If the market snaps, think out of the money puts.
Think tail hedges on the NASDAQ.When the RSI runs hot, Think
small position shorts when you see auction stress build, It is
cheap when the VIX is calm. It is impossible to afford when
(25:09):
the loop flips. Watch the insider flows.
You do not follow one filing, you follow the pattern.
If a big name CEO has a 10B51 plan, that is normal.
But if you see multiple insidersacross the Magnificent 7 lighten
up. While the story says all clear,
you pay attention. That is supply that hits you
(25:30):
before you notice the bid dryingup.
Layer in buybacks. Some desks forget that buybacks
can mask selling. Companies buy shares to keep the
price floor stable. But if the buyback slows down or
gets pulled back while insiders sell, you get a double whammy.
You lose the cushion just when you need it most.
The auction day rule is simple. If the bid to cover on the next
(25:54):
big Treasury auction comes in week, you check your scenario
bands. Do not wait for the chart to
tell you a soft auction tail means buyers are pulling back.
You trim your stretch names. You check your hedges.
You reload if the next bid confirms the stress.
Look at the easy signals too. If the VIX curve starts to
invert it means near term fear is creeping in even if the
(26:16):
screen looks calm. That is when you roll your hedge
up a little. If RSI on the index it's above
70. You do not get greedy, you clip
gains. You lock dry powder.
That is how pros survive when trust flips to fear overnight
and. Keep your playbook simple.
You do not need 10 layers of exotic trades.
(26:37):
You need a short list. What do I trim if the auction
hits weak? What do I hedge if CPI runs hot?
What do I do if insiders keep selling into strength?
These are not scary questions. They are the only questions that
keep your gains yours. This is the part that sounds
easy but breaks people. It is not the chart that kills
(26:58):
you. It is waiting too long to admit
the story changed. The pros do not wait for
permission. They watch the bid, they watch
the flows, and they act when thesignals line up.
The difference between a lucky melt up and a real plan is
simple. One hopes the scenario bands
hold, the other sets guardrails.If the floor holds, great.
(27:19):
If the floor cracks, you are thefirst one out the door and not
the last. That is what the Insiders
playbook gives you. So remember, when the upside is
gone early, you do not panic, you trim the peaks, you protect
the tail, you watch the signals,and you trade like you know what
trust costs when it breaks. Next, we bring it all together.
(27:42):
The final summary, the real scenario bans, the call to
action that keeps this show alive, and the one rule that
never changes. Stay with us.
So here is what you have now. A market that front ran its own
story. Six months of gains burned in
six weeks. The scenario bans you trusted
for the rest of the year. Already thin, now you know.
(28:05):
The bull case sits at 30%, the base case holds at 50, the bear
case is 15 and the Black Swan never knocks but stays close.
The signals are there if you want to keep what you made.
Treasury auctions that miss by awhisper, tariffs that flip from
pause to spike, insiders that sell into perfection, and AI
(28:27):
CapEx that props up the floor until it does not.
You have the guardrails now. Use them.
This is not the first time we have tracked this story.
Go back to big gains in May Payback's coming.
We showed how the market smashedits forecast and 30 days flat.
It was the first crack that let you see this melt up before it
(28:49):
ran too far. And do not miss the American
debt trap. That one broke down, why the
2020's shook trust and debt markets, and why Treasury
auctions matter more now than ever.
If you care where the next yieldshock hits your floor, that is
where you start. So here is what you do now.
Trim the peaks. Load your convex shield when the
(29:09):
VIX is calm, not when it is spiking.
Watch the auctions. Watch the bid covers.
Watch the reflex loop so it doesnot surprise you twice.
Subscribe to Finance Frontier AIon Spotify or Apple Podcasts.
Follow us on X for real time financial intelligence.
Share this episode with a friendand help us hit 10,000 downloads
(29:31):
to build the smartest macro community online.
We cover finance, AI, money and mindset across 4 series, all
grouped at financefrontierai.comand if you have a story that
fits, we may pitch it in a future episode free.
If there is a clear win, win, just go to the pitch page and
take a look. And do not forget, sign up for
The 5X Edge, our weekly newsletter packed with
(29:53):
asymmetric stocks, tactical strategies, and investor
psychology that works in the real world only at
financefrontierai.com. This podcast is for educational
purposes only, not financial advice.
Always do your own research and consult A licensed financial
advisor. Markets evolve, risks compound,
(30:14):
and no forecast, no matter how strategic, guarantees future
results. Manage your exposures
accordingly. Music in this episode, including
Not without the rest by twin musicom, is licensed under the
Creative Commons Attribution 4 Point O license copyright
Finance Frontier AI. Unauthorized reproduction is
prohibited.
Picture this Friday, 4 O 2:00 PMWall Street.
The closing bell hits the New York Stock Exchange, but there
is no roar, no high fives, no traders pouring out for drinks.
Just a room full of people staring at screens that say more
than they should. The S&P 500 is at 6200 for the
(00:31):
NASDAQ 100 is at 22,679. Those numbers were not supposed
to happen in July. They were for December.
But the market ate six months ofgains in six weeks.
That is not a rally. That is the future stolen from
itself. If you stand here long enough,
you feel the air change. It is like watching an auction
(00:54):
where the biggest bidder steps back.
Suddenly the floor is thin. There is no one left to catch
the bid. You feel it under your shoes.
The floor creaks. That is what traders do not say
when they stare at those screens.
The numbers do not lie. The S&P is up 12.8% this year.
The NASDAQ is up 20.6%. But earnings did not double
(01:17):
overnight. AI spending did not make debt
disappear. The market just priced in hope.
Early tariff freezes, Big tech Cap X.
But the real test comes later. August auctions, Q2 earnings,
inflation that refuses to fade. It is like paying for a meal
before you see the bill. We have seen this movie before.
(01:39):
In 2000 itwas.com Euphoria. In 2021 it was the post lockdown
melt up. Each time the rally eats the
future first, then it starves itself.
The cracks do not start on the charts.
They show up in places nobody watches.
The bid to cover slipping on a treasury auction, insider
selling when the headlines say hold.
(02:02):
That is how trust breaks. So what happens now?
That is the only question that matters.
Six months of upside gone. Five months left on the clock.
The base case ceiling is thin, the downside tail is fat, and if
you are not watching the signals, you do not know when
the trap door opens. Welcome to Finance Frontier, you
(02:24):
are listening to the show that makes sense of markets when the
story does not add up. We are hosting this one right
here in New York. Not in a quiet studio, not at
some beach resort right in the belly of the beast.
This week we set up near the Detdesks, two blocks from the
Treasury auction house, where traders test if buyers still
(02:45):
believe. If you stand outside, you feel
the pressure in the air. Concrete towers that do not care
what you think. Metal doors that never close.
Late at night, you can still seebond desks lit up like
Christmas. Not because they want to be
there, because they have to. This city does not sleep because
trust never does. If you want to know when
(03:07):
liquidity cracks, you do not watch from far away.
You stand where the money moves.That is why we are here.
I am Max Vanguard. I use Grok to see when the story
breaks, when the buyers vanish, when the screen says up but the
real money says no thanks. That is my edge.
I am Sophia Sterling. I run on Chat GPTI track bond
(03:30):
auctions. I read credit spreads.
I watch earnings shifts before they land in your feed.
My edge is simple. I see where the stress hides
before you feel it. I am Charlie Graham.
I use Gemini to remember the mistakes people repeat.
I see the patterns, the failed bids, the insider sales, the
(03:50):
reflex loop that flips greed to fear.
That is what you hire me for. Share this episode with a friend
and help keep us in business while we build the smartest
macro community online. Up next, the May and June blow
off the forecast that broke and the new scenario table that
shows how thin your margin really is.
(04:11):
Stay with us. You might think six months of
gains in six weeks is just a headline, so let us walk through
what really happened start of May.
The S&P 500 opened near 5500. The NASDAQ 100 opened just under
18,800. That was the map.
That was the base case we thought we had.
(04:33):
Now listen to how fast the storychanged.
By the end of May, the S&P jumped to 5935.
The NASDAQ pushed past 21,491. Some people said that was the
melt up. They were wrong.
It was just the start. June turned a fast move into a
(04:54):
time theft. The S&P closed June at 6204.
The NASDAQ 100 closed at 22,679,and in early July it ticked even
higher, near 22,867. So if you think about it, the
S&P ran almost 700 points since May opened.
(05:14):
The NASDAQ jumped almost 4000 inthat same window.
That is not just momentum, that is a calendar break.
Now think about the old forecastback in May.
The expected value for the S&P for year end was about plus
4.4%. The Nasdaq's was plus 10.2%.
(05:34):
You know what happened? By July, we already passed those
targets. So the expected upside for the
rest of the year got thinner by the hour.
The rally did not bend the curve.
It ate it alive. So the question is, why did this
happen? The big fuel was simple.
AI capital spending hit like a freight train.
(05:55):
The big tech names pushed more than $390 billion this year into
AI build outs, cloud capacity chips, data centers, all of it
stacked. That became the floor.
And it was not just AI. You got the policy tailwinds,
too. The first Fed rate cut came in
December 2024. That cracked the door for more
(06:18):
cuts this year. Tariff freezes between the US
and China and Vietnam added another risk on push.
Liquidity stayed loose because the narrative said soft landing
and disinflation were guaranteed.
But that was the easy part. The catch is this.
Earnings in Q1 came in hot, about plus 13.4% for the S&P.
(06:40):
But look closer, Q2 is projectedat +5.
So you pulled a lot of forward earnings early, the market price
to perfection already. That means you now sit at these
new highs with less room for disappointment.
The future got squeezed into thepresent.
Here's what that really means. A front loaded rally is like
(07:00):
taking your parachute and using it to glide higher.
It feels safe until the air shifts and when you look around
and see you are already at the top band of the scenario skew,
you realize you don't have much left to soften the landing.
That is why the overshoot matters.
It is not just points on a chart, it is time you cannot get
(07:21):
back. The numbers are clear.
May give you 7.9% on the S&P, 14.3% on the NASDAQ.
June added another 4 to 5% on top.
The total year to date is 12.8% and 20.6%.
You do not get those moves for free.
They cost you your cushion. And now you have to defend that
(07:42):
cushion when the real signals hit Treasury auctions, the July
tariff deadline, the next CPI print.
That is the layer. And no one wants to talk about
when the chart says new highs. But that is the layer you must
watch if you want to keep what you made.
So here is the simple truth. May and June were not melt up
months, they were the future pulled forward.
(08:05):
The only thing left to ask is what the new scenario table says
about what happens now. Next we lay it out.
Bull, bass, bear and the Black Swan that stays below your feet.
The August lock in is not a guess, it is the real skew that
traders are betting their jobs on.
Stay with us. So now you know what May and
(08:26):
June did. They did not stretch the rally,
they compressed it. Six months of gains in six weeks
forced us to tear up the old map.
So here is the table that matters.
Now the new August scenario lockin and if you trade this market
without it, you are flying blind.
Here's how it breaks down. The bull case sits at 30%
(08:48):
probability. That means you still get a shot
at S&P moving to around 6500 to 6600.
The NASDAQ could push to 23,500 or even 24,000 if AI spending
holds strong and you get a real earnings surprise in Q3.
But the bull needs clean inflation prints and no auction
(09:10):
stress. The base case is the real heart,
50%. That means it is more likely
than not that we hover between 6200 and 6300 on the S&P.
The NASDAQ holds 22,500 to 23,000.
That range reflects A digestion phase.
(09:31):
The rally happened early. Now the market has to prove it
did not steal growth from the back half.
This is the soft landing bed, but it is priced tight.
The bare case is not just for doomsayers.
It sits at 15%. That is real.
That means if the next Treasury auction fails, or the next CPI
(09:53):
print runs hot, or insiders start selling too fast, you
could see the S&P drop back to around 5900.
The NASDAQ could slip to 21,500.Not a crash, but a reset that
takes the air out of the melt up.
And then there is the Black Swan.
Less than 5% but you do not ignore it.
(10:14):
That is the scenario where a major trade war shock hits, or a
yield spike cracks the trust in the treasury market or a cyber
event freezes the auction board.If that tail shows up, you do
not get to plan. You just watch the floor drop.
That is why you hedge. So what changed since May?
One, the old expected value is already behind us. 2, The skew
(10:38):
is now front loaded. The AI spending that kept the
floor is still strong, but you have to watch for signs it peeks
out. Three, the policy tailwinds are
real but fragile. Tariff deadlines, Treasury
auctions, CPI and PCE prints. The macro floor is there until
it is not. That is the trap people miss.
(11:01):
The scenario table is not some number you slap on a slide deck.
It is your guardrail. It says how much room you have
to breathe when the next shock hits, and how thin your margin
really is when you already ate half the upside before August.
So keep the band simple. Bull 30% base 50, Bear 15 blacks
(11:21):
one under 5. If you want to stay solvent, you
trade the odds, not the hope. And watch the signals that
decide which box you land in thenext 30 year Treasury auction,
the July tariff pause, expiration, core CPI that will
not fade, insider sales that nobody notices until the chart
cracks. If those line up, the table
(11:44):
shifts in real time. Next we break down what holds
this table up. The real driver is AI capital
spending. The Magnificent 7 have been the
floor, but they can be the trap too.
That is what we tackle next. Stay with us.
If you think this rally stands on air, think again.
(12:05):
The real floor under these scenario bands is one thing.
AI capital spending, The numbersare huge.
In 2025 alone, the biggest tech and cloud names are on track to
pour more than $390 billion intoAI build outs, data centers,
chips, training infrastructure, all of it.
(12:26):
This is what gave the market itsstructural safety net in May and
June. Companies like NVIDIA,
Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Google,each one playing a piece of the
same story. The idea that if you own the
pipes and the chips and the servers, you own the future.
And to be fair, it worked. It gave the NASDAQ its 20.6%
(12:49):
year to date surge. It propped up the S&P when other
sectors dragged their feet. But here is what people miss.
The Magnificent 7 might be the floor today, but they can become
the trap tomorrow. Think back to the.com days.
Cisco was once the backbone of the Internet build out.
Then the spending wave peaked. The same with Dell, Sun
(13:11):
Microsystems. When capital investment peaks
faster than profits catch up, you end up with a gap you cannot
hedge. Let me break that down.
When big tech pumps billions into AI, they are not buying
profits today, they are buying the hope of margins tomorrow.
If earnings slip or guidance pulls back, the entire floor
(13:32):
shifts. That is why scenario skew gets
fragile the deeper you lean on one theme.
And this is where concentration risk turns into reflex risk.
NVIDIA just flipped Microsoft tobecome the biggest company in
the world for a minute. But Nvidia's own CEO has a 10B51
selling plan for hundreds of millions of dollars worth of
shares this year. That does not mean panic, but it
(13:55):
does mean supply. And when insiders sell into
perfection, the floor you thought was there gets thin.
Look at the weight. The Magnificent 7 now make up
more than 34% of the S&P 500's market cap.
That means when these names move, they do not just shift
their own charts, they bend the entire index.
So if AI CapEx slows or forward guidance disappoints, you do not
(14:19):
have time to tiptoe out. The move hits you before you see
it. People love to say AI is the new
electricity. Maybe, But you cannot trade an
idea like a utility when capitalinvestment is this aggressive,
it has to deliver earnings breadth.
If you want to see if the floor holds, watch if AI spending
spreads beyond the seven names. If only a handful keep buying
(14:44):
while the rest slow down, the safety net rips.
The early signals matter. Cloud capacity expansion
announcements, CapEx line items on earnings calls, insider sales
that match big buyback headlines.
If you see a squeeze there, you know the floor is not as deep as
you think. And then there's the political
layer. If the trade war flares up again
(15:06):
or tariffs snap back, that hits supply chains for chips.
That hits spending. That hits trust.
So when we say AI cap X is the floor, we mean it is
conditional. And that condition is staying
fragile. So remember this, the scenario
table you heard in segment 3 is not just lines and bands, it is
(15:28):
glued together. By this spending, if the glue
cracks you do not get a gentle drift, you get a fast reset and
the only edge is to see the cracks before they go
mainstream. Next, we walk through the real
world triggers that test this glue Treasury auctions, tariff
deadlines, yield stress and the auction tail signals that
(15:49):
traders whisper about but never say on TV.
Stay with us. Now you have the scenario table
and you know what holds it up. But here is the part traders
hate talking about. The cracks do not show up in big
headlines. They show up in big headlines.
They show up in the quiet places.
One of those is the Treasury Auction Board.
(16:11):
Boring when it works, terrifyingwhen it does not.
Think about this. The last 30 year Treasury
auction drew a bid to cover of just 243.
That is low, well below the fivetimes cover you want to see.
What that means is simple. Fewer buyers showed up.
The tail widened. The government had to pay more
(16:32):
yield to clear the debt. And when that happens, trust
shifts. If you stand on that auction
floor in New York, you feel it. The room is not loud.
Phones buzz, desks whisper. But when a bid comes in light,
you see the ripple on the screens.
Traders adjust risk bond desks markup yields.
Suddenly your cost of capital isnot what you thought it was, and
(16:56):
every stock that rode a free money story feels it in real
time. A.
Week auction is not a recession headline, but it feeds one
because if yields pop higher andthe Fed looks trapped, you do
not get the soft landing story for free.
It gets traded back out and whenthat bid to cover ratio keeps
slipping, it is not just a one day problem, it is a stress test
(17:18):
on your scenario skew. Now add the trade layer.
The 90 day tariff pause between the US and China expires July
9th. If that does not roll over, you
get an instant risk. Off wave tariffs do not just hit
headline prices. They push inflation back up,
they squeeze supply chains, and they make the Fed look stuck
(17:40):
between higher yields and stickyCPI.
That is the crack that bleeds into the next auction.
It ties straight to your floor. Think about AI CapEx.
If trade friction jumps, you getchip supply risk.
If chip supply slows, you hit big tech spending.
And if tech spending flinches, you feel it in the NASDAQ before
(18:00):
you read it in the earnings release.
That is the reflex loop. Nobody wants to see until they
do. And then layer and insider
selling. Big names like NVIDIA CEO have
structured plans to sell shares through 10B51 programs.
Those are legal, but when you see mega cap insiders exit into
an overbought chart you have to ask if they see something you do
(18:23):
not. It is not panic, it is supply,
and supply shows up in the auction tales.
Here is what people forget. A treasury auction that misses
by half a point can move the whole bond curve.
If the long end spikes. You feel it in mortgage rates,
corporate loans, credit spreads,the cost of rolling debt.
(18:45):
The floor that looks solid in May suddenly has hairline
fractures. And it is not just about traders
in New York. Foreign buyers matter too.
If you see foreign demand dry up, the bid to cover ratio
softens. That is when you know the market
is watching more than the US balance sheet.
It is watching political risk, trade risk, geopolitical trust.
(19:07):
So what do you do? You do not panic, but you watch
the signals. The next 30 year Treasury
auction is August 7th. If the bid to cover comes in
weak again and insiders keep selling and tariffs flip back
on, you do not wait for a meltdown headline.
You tighten your bands. You clip some upside.
You reload the convex shield. That is how pros run the table
(19:30):
while everyone else waits for permission.
Remember, a weak auction is not just a number, it is a warning
shot. A tariff snap back is not just a
headline, it is a stress test. And when they line up, you get a
reflex loop that traders try to hide until it hits the chart.
Next we step back. We have seen this movie
(19:53):
beforethe.com blow off the post lockdown melt up.
A front loaded rally that eats the future always runs into the
same wall. The pattern echoes and the
signals repeat. Stay with us.
So here is the part that makes traders nervous.
You think what you just saw in May and June was new.
It is not. The pattern is older than any
(20:14):
model. Front loaded rallies that eat
the future always leave the samefingerprint.
It starts with too much trust. It ends when that trust snaps.
Think about the year 2000. The NASDAQ ran up 90% in 12
months. the.com boom felt endless.
Cisco, Sun Microsystems. Every new tech name pulled
(20:36):
forward a decade of growth untilthe auction.
Stress showed up, bid cover slipped, corporate insiders
cashed out, the floor cracked. And once the reflex loop kicked
in, there was no soft landing. The pattern repeated in 2021.
Post lockdown, the market front ran the reopening.
Tech and crypto pumped retail cash flooded in.
(20:59):
Liquidity stayed easy. Everyone thought the Fed had
their back forever. But inflation did not listen.
Bond auctions got wobbly, and when the Fed turned the first
tiny screw, the reflex loop slammed shut.
Traders learned that trust is not free.
This is what a reflex loop really is.
It is not some fancy hedge fund word.
(21:21):
It is when people see the floor disappear and they rush to the
same exit at the same time. The more crowded the position,
the faster the snap. That is why the Magnificent 7
matters so much now. They hold up the index, but they
are the same door everyone wantsto use when the signals flip.
And it is not just 20 years ago.Look back to 1987.
(21:43):
The market ran hot. New products like portfolio
insurance told traders they could not lose.
Then one auction cracked, a yield spike hit, and on Black
Monday, the Dow dropped more than 20% in a day.
No modern screens, no AI models,just human fear repeating the
same mistake. What ties all of these together
(22:05):
is simple. When trust breaks, it breaks
fast. Charts do not warn you, they
just reflect the snap. The real signal lives
underneath. Auction tails that grow longer
bid to cover ratios that soften,insiders that sell while the
headlines still say by the dip. The signals are always there.
You just have to care enough to watch.
(22:28):
And that is why we push this so hard, because every cycle
traders think this time is different.
This time AI will keep the floor.
This time the Fed will not flinch.
This time, retail flows will stay sticky, but no cycle has
ever avoided the reflex loop. It is human nature.
You pile in early, you brag on the way up, then you scramble
(22:51):
when the exit gets crowded. So here is the point.
You do not fear the reflex loop,you prepare for it.
You do not sell everything just because an auction misses by
half a point, but you do not ignore the pattern when you see
the pieces line up. You trim risk, You tighten your
bands, you hedge the tail. That is how you survive when
(23:14):
trust snaps. And the signals are stacking up
now. A weak Treasury auction.
A tariff surprise. A sticky CPI print that holds
the Fed back. An insider's sale that shows up
on Form 4 while you are watchingyour watch list.
None of these break you alone, but together they flip the loop.
That is what our pattern memory is for.
(23:37):
Not to scare you, to remind you that when you see the same
fingerprints, you do not have toguess.
You act and you stay standing when others panic.
Next, we show you how the pros do that.
You have the table, you have thesignals, but you need a plan.
That is the insider's playbook. The trim triggers the hedge.
(24:01):
The simple moves that protect you when the future is already
gone stay with us. This is where traders either
keep what they made or give it back.
You have your scenario table, you have the cracks that matter,
but you still need the moves that protect you when the floor
wobbles. That is the insider's playbook.
The simple steps the best desks use when the upside is already
(24:24):
pulled forward. Start with the first rule, trim
when it feels wrong. You never want to sell when your
screen says new high. That is when greed says wait,
but that is when the reflex loopwaits to strike.
If you ride the melt up too far you do not have dry powder to
reload when the floor resets. The pros trim on green days, not
(24:46):
red ones. Next is your convex shield.
That is not just a fancy hedge fund trick.
It means you buy small protection that grows big.
If the market snaps, think out of the money puts.
Think tail hedges on the NASDAQ.When the RSI runs hot, Think
small position shorts when you see auction stress build, It is
cheap when the VIX is calm. It is impossible to afford when
(25:09):
the loop flips. Watch the insider flows.
You do not follow one filing, you follow the pattern.
If a big name CEO has a 10B51 plan, that is normal.
But if you see multiple insidersacross the Magnificent 7 lighten
up. While the story says all clear,
you pay attention. That is supply that hits you
(25:30):
before you notice the bid dryingup.
Layer in buybacks. Some desks forget that buybacks
can mask selling. Companies buy shares to keep the
price floor stable. But if the buyback slows down or
gets pulled back while insiders sell, you get a double whammy.
You lose the cushion just when you need it most.
The auction day rule is simple. If the bid to cover on the next
(25:54):
big Treasury auction comes in week, you check your scenario
bands. Do not wait for the chart to
tell you a soft auction tail means buyers are pulling back.
You trim your stretch names. You check your hedges.
You reload if the next bid confirms the stress.
Look at the easy signals too. If the VIX curve starts to
invert it means near term fear is creeping in even if the
(26:16):
screen looks calm. That is when you roll your hedge
up a little. If RSI on the index it's above
70. You do not get greedy, you clip
gains. You lock dry powder.
That is how pros survive when trust flips to fear overnight
and. Keep your playbook simple.
You do not need 10 layers of exotic trades.
(26:37):
You need a short list. What do I trim if the auction
hits weak? What do I hedge if CPI runs hot?
What do I do if insiders keep selling into strength?
These are not scary questions. They are the only questions that
keep your gains yours. This is the part that sounds
easy but breaks people. It is not the chart that kills
(26:58):
you. It is waiting too long to admit
the story changed. The pros do not wait for
permission. They watch the bid, they watch
the flows, and they act when thesignals line up.
The difference between a lucky melt up and a real plan is
simple. One hopes the scenario bands
hold, the other sets guardrails.If the floor holds, great.
(27:19):
If the floor cracks, you are thefirst one out the door and not
the last. That is what the Insiders
playbook gives you. So remember, when the upside is
gone early, you do not panic, you trim the peaks, you protect
the tail, you watch the signals,and you trade like you know what
trust costs when it breaks. Next, we bring it all together.
(27:42):
The final summary, the real scenario bans, the call to
action that keeps this show alive, and the one rule that
never changes. Stay with us.
So here is what you have now. A market that front ran its own
story. Six months of gains burned in
six weeks. The scenario bans you trusted
for the rest of the year. Already thin, now you know.
(28:05):
The bull case sits at 30%, the base case holds at 50, the bear
case is 15 and the Black Swan never knocks but stays close.
The signals are there if you want to keep what you made.
Treasury auctions that miss by awhisper, tariffs that flip from
pause to spike, insiders that sell into perfection, and AI
(28:27):
CapEx that props up the floor until it does not.
You have the guardrails now. Use them.
This is not the first time we have tracked this story.
Go back to big gains in May Payback's coming.
We showed how the market smashedits forecast and 30 days flat.
It was the first crack that let you see this melt up before it
(28:49):
ran too far. And do not miss the American
debt trap. That one broke down, why the
2020's shook trust and debt markets, and why Treasury
auctions matter more now than ever.
If you care where the next yieldshock hits your floor, that is
where you start. So here is what you do now.
Trim the peaks. Load your convex shield when the
(29:09):
VIX is calm, not when it is spiking.
Watch the auctions. Watch the bid covers.
Watch the reflex loop so it doesnot surprise you twice.
Subscribe to Finance Frontier AIon Spotify or Apple Podcasts.
Follow us on X for real time financial intelligence.
Share this episode with a friendand help us hit 10,000 downloads
(29:31):
to build the smartest macro community online.
We cover finance, AI, money and mindset across 4 series, all
grouped at financefrontierai.comand if you have a story that
fits, we may pitch it in a future episode free.
If there is a clear win, win, just go to the pitch page and
take a look. And do not forget, sign up for
The 5X Edge, our weekly newsletter packed with
(29:53):
asymmetric stocks, tactical strategies, and investor
psychology that works in the real world only at
financefrontierai.com. This podcast is for educational
purposes only, not financial advice.
Always do your own research and consult A licensed financial
advisor. Markets evolve, risks compound,
(30:14):
and no forecast, no matter how strategic, guarantees future
results. Manage your exposures
accordingly. Music in this episode, including
Not without the rest by twin musicom, is licensed under the
Creative Commons Attribution 4 Point O license copyright
Finance Frontier AI. Unauthorized reproduction is
prohibited.
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Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
The Breakfast Club
The World's Most Dangerous Morning Show, The Breakfast Club, With DJ Envy, Jess Hilarious, And Charlamagne Tha God!