MedX Holdings, Inc. ($MEDH) - Path to an 70X Return

💡 Welcome to Make Money, part of the Finance Frontier AI podcast network — where we break down asymmetric opportunities by focusing on structure, survival, and right-tail probability rather than hype. In this episode, Max Vanguard, Sophia Sterling, and Charlie Graham analyze MedX Holdings, Inc. ($MEDH), a cannabis-adjacent microcap operating at the intersection of retail franchising, hospitality, and embedded software — and why it represents a long-dated equity option with a potential 70X right-tail outcome if execution aligns.

🔹 Current Price — $0.0009 (OTC Pink).
🔹 1-Year Outcome Range — Survival validation or thesis break (no price prediction).
🔹 5-Year Right-Tail Scenario — ~$0.06–$0.07 (≈70×) if franchising and platform monetization scale.
🔹 FY25 Revenue Guidance — ~$1.5M (company guidance).
🔹 Q3 2025 Revenue — $568K; nine-month revenue: $1.29M (+130% YoY).
🔹 Operating Status — Reported operating profitability in Q3 2025.
🔹 Primary Assets — LazyDaze + Coffeeshop franchise system, Leaf-trak POS platform, Smart Brand Digital.

📊 The Asymmetric Framework

Most OTC microcaps fail. MEDH is not an unfiltered case. It already shows real revenue, current filings, operating locations, and early profitability.

After filtering for companies with functioning businesses and regulatory compliance, outcomes over five years roughly look like this:

🔸 ~60% fail or dilute heavily.
🔸 ~25% survive without meaningful upside.
🔸 ~10% reach moderate success (5–10×).
🔸 ~2–4% achieve a true right-tail outcome through national scale and platform monetization.

This episode is not about prediction.
It defines what must happen to stay alive, and what must happen to earn a 70× outcome.

🧱 12-Month Survival Gate

For the thesis to remain valid over the next year, MEDH must:

✅ Maintain operating profitability without emergency dilution.
✅ Convert signed franchise agreements into operating, cash-flowing locations.
✅ Demonstrate early third-party adoption of Leaf-trak beyond internal use.
✅ Preserve Pink Current status with timely, clean filings.

Failure at this stage does not lead to “underperformance.” It leads to capital loss.

🚀 5-Year Right-Tail Gate

A true 70× outcome requires structural transformation:

🔹 Franchising evolves from founder-led execution into a repeatable system.
🔹 Leaf-trak becomes a standalone, revenue-generating platform used by external operators.
🔹 Capital discipline remains intact — growth funded organically or via non-dilutive structures.
🔹 Share structure and governance mature enough to support an uplist and institutional access.

Without these changes, upside compresses sharply.

⚖️ Kill Signals (When the Math Breaks)

🔻 Filing delays, amendments, or loss of Pink Current status.
🔻 Franchise announcements that fail to translate into openings over 12–18 months.
🔻 Rising share count without proportional EBITDA growth.
🔻 Management narrative drift into unrelated “hot” sectors.

These are not red flags — they are exit signals.

🎯 Portfolio Construction & Allocation

🔹 Base Allocation — ~1% position size.
🔹 Scaling Rule — Exposure must be earned through execution milestones.
🔹 Mindset — Most outcomes are zero. The strategy works because one winner pays for many losses.

🧠 Why This Setup Is Asymmetric

🔹 Valuation Asymmetry — Market prices MEDH as a fragile microcap, not a scalable system.

🌐 Explore More Asymmetric Frameworks

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Episode Transcript

(00:10):
Picture this, a micro cap trading at 0.00009.
No hype, no volume spike, just acompany quietly trying to
survive. Today we are not pitching a
stock, we are dissecting a question.
What would have to be true for Medics Holdings to ever justify
a 70 times outcome? This is a make money case study

(00:31):
in asymmetry. Most.
People here 70 times and they shut their brain off.
That is the wrong reaction. The right reaction is to ask
what structure would have to change.
Not price, not sentiment. Structure.
Because if structure does not change, this goes to zero and
stays there. And before we go any further,
let us be clear. This is not a prediction.
This is not a recommendation. Micro caps fail all the time.

(00:55):
Illiquidity is real. Dilution is real.
Opportunity cost is real. The only reason to study this is
to sharpen how you think about asymmetric risk.
Exactly. In this episode, success does
not need to happen for the episode to be valid.
Failure does not invalidate the work.
We are stress testing a framework.
We are asking what must happen in the next 12 months and over

(01:17):
five years for a fragile business to become a small but
durable platform. And we will be explicit about
sizing this Love's at 1%, not more.
You earn the right to scale onlyif execution proves itself.
If you are looking for comfort, this is the wrong episode.
If you were looking for clarity,stay with us.

(01:38):
I am joining from Austin. I have spent the week reviewing
failure paths in franchised retail and cannabis adjacent
businesses. Most do not break because of one
big mistake. They break because small
promises quietly stop compounding.
That is what I'll be watching for today.
I am in New York. I've been working on asymmetric
allocation math and how right tail outcomes distort intuition.

(02:01):
This episode is about slowing that intuition down.
I am in San Francisco. I've been mapping where markets
miss price survival. Sometimes that mispricing
creates opportunity, Most of thetime it creates traps.
Let us figure out which this could be.
Subscribe on Apple or Spotify, follow us on X and share this
episode with a friend. Help us reach 10,000 downloads.

(02:24):
Help us keep the AI Frontier AI series in business.
Let us ground this in reality. Medics Holdings trades around
0.0009 today. The company reported strong Q3
momentum in 2025 with revenue growth, positive operating
income and expanding franchise commitments.
Those are facts, not opinions. And context matters.

(02:46):
This is not a blank shell. There are real stores, real
customers and real regulatory exposure.
The core asset is the Lazydays Plus coffee shop concept paired
with a franchise model and an internal technology stack that
management believes can scale. But scale is the keyword.
At roughly 1.5 million in projected full year revenue,

(03:07):
this is still a survival stage business.
Positive operating income is encouraging, but it is fragile.
One delay 1. Cost overrun 1.
Regulatory issue can reverse it quickly.
The business model has three layers.
First, company owned and franchised Lazydays locations.
Second, franchise fees and royalties as the footprint

(03:28):
grows. Third, technology and services
including the leaf track, point of sale platform and smart brand
digital support. The idea is diversification
inside a single ecosystem. This is where many listeners get
confused. They hear cannabis and think
commodity retail. That is not the ambition here.
The ambition is hospitality pluscompliance plus software.

(03:51):
If that stack works together, margins and repeatability
improve. If it does not, complexity
becomes a liability. I want to underline that last
point. Multiple business lines do not
automatically reduce risk, they often increase execution risk.
The question is not whether LeafTrac exists, it is whether third
parties will pay for it and whether it works outside the
founders own stores. Recent disclosures point to five

(04:15):
new franchise agreements across Texas, Maryland and a flagship
location planned for Las Vegas. These are commitments, not
revenue, Yet they matter only ifthey open on time and operate as
designed. So today what exists is simple,
A micro cap that has stabilized operations, found early
traction, and is attempting to move from survival to

(04:36):
validation. Everything beyond that is
optionality. And optionality cuts both ways.
The upside is large only becausethe base is small and the odds
are low. That is the mental frame we need
before we go any further. Before anyone talks about a 70
times outcome, we have to pass amuch harder test.
Survival. This segment is about one

(04:58):
question only. What must happen in the next 12
months for this thesis to remainalive at all?
Not thrive. Not rewrite.
Simply stay alive. I want to frame this as a gate.
Most micro caps never pass it. Out of 100 setups like this, the
majority fail right here. So the right way to think about
the next year is not upside, it is whether MEDH can clear 3

(05:19):
survival conditions without cheating the capital structure.
Let me make that concrete Condition one is operating
reality. The company reported operating
profitability in Q32025 over thenext 12 months.
That must repeat. Not one good quarter, multiple
clean quarters where revenue covers operating costs without
emergency financing. If that breaks, dilution usually

(05:40):
follows and the thesis weakens fast.
And this is where a lot of investors fool themselves.
Survival profitability is different from growth
profitability. A single quarter can be a
counting noise. What matters is consistency.
Same pattern, same margins, samediscipline.
If they need the market to keep the lights on, the option
decays. Condition 2 is conversion.
Signed franchise agreements mustturn into open locations.

(06:02):
Houston, Maryland, Vegas. Paper deals do not count, Cash
flowing stores do. This is where repeatability gets
tested. If opening slip again and again,
the model is not ready for scale.
This is critical. The market has seen endless
press releases about pipelines. It only reprices when units open
on time and behave similarly. If every location is a special

(06:26):
case, this is not a system. And without a system, there is
no right tail. And there is a quiet risk here.
Variation. If some stores work and others
struggle badly, that tells you the model is fragile.
A franchise system only works when average operators can
succeed, not just exceptional ones.
Condition 3 is platform proof. The software must move from

(06:48):
internal use to external revenue, even small, even early.
What matters is proof that someone outside the company is
willing to pay for it. Without that, this remains a
retail story, not a platform story.
If all three happen, survival odds improve materially.
Not success survival. The company earns time.

(07:10):
If even one fails, especially through dilution or delayed
filings, the probability curve shifts sharply against
shareholders. And This is why we call this a
gate. You do not argue your way
through it. You either pass it or you do
not. That is the lens for the next 12
months. Not hope, not narrative
structure. Pass the survival gate and only

(07:31):
then does the long term conversation begin.
Here's the real problem for investors.
In micro caps, almost everythinglooks like a signal.
Press releases, new locations, social posts.
But most of it is noise. So the question is simple, what
actually matters? I will frame it this way.
Signals reduce uncertainty, Noise increases excitement

(07:52):
without reducing risk. For MEDHA, real signal is boring
consistency, same store economics, predictable margins
on time filings. And that boredom is
uncomfortable. People want catalysts.
They want fireworks, but the market only reprices micro caps
when uncertainty drops, not whenhope rises.
A good example is franchise announcements. 1 Announcement

(08:14):
means nothing. Three locations opening on
schedule with similar performance starts to matter. 5
Doing it makes people pay attention.
The same logic applies to leaf track.
A pilot is noise. A pilot converting to a paying
customer is signal. Multiple customers renewing is a
strong signal. I will add one more filter.
Watch what management stops talking about.

(08:36):
If a theme quietly disappears from updates, that is often more
informative than what is being promoted loudly.
This is operator thinking. You are not reacting to
headlines, you are tracking repeatable outcomes.
That is how you stay ahead of sentiment.
And This is why we slow the episode down here.
If you cannot separate signals from noise, this entire
framework collapses. Here is the second anchor

(08:58):
question. What would actually have to go
right over five years for a 70 times outcome to even be
possible? Not likely, just possible.
First, franchising has to becomea machine, not a deal by deal
effort. Stores open on schedule.
Economics look similar, Support scales without breaking.

(09:19):
That alone is a major filter. And most companies fail right
there. Franchising exposes every
weakness, training, compliance, culture.
If the core is fragile, scale amplifies the damage. 2nd, the
software and systems layer has to mature into a real platform,
not just technology that exists,but technology that third
parties rely on, Recurring revenue, clear operational

(09:42):
value. This is where convexity can
emerge. A small platform that works does
not need to dominate the industry, it just needs to exist
credibly. That alone can change how the
market values the business. But timelines matter.
Platform adoption is slow. If adoption stalls or remains
internal, only the five year math compresses fast.
Third, capital discipline must hold growth funded through

(10:06):
operations and partnerships, notrepeated dilution.
Dilution does not kill upside, but it lowers the payoff curve
each time. If these conditions align not
perfectly but directionally, theright tail stays alive.
If one breaks, the 70 times outcome does not fade slowly, it
snaps. That is the reality of equity

(10:26):
options in public markets. Most of the value comes from not
breaking the structure. This is the segment that
separates thinking from hoping. We need to talk base rates.
Not stories, not conviction baserates.
Out of 100 micro caps like this,most fail.
That is the starting truth. Let me put numbers on it.
Roughly 80 collapse completely. They burn cash, hit regulatory

(10:50):
walls, or dilute until nothing is left.
Another 15 survive but destroy shareholder value slowly.
That leaves maybe 5 outcomes worth discussing.
And even inside those five, mostare not life changing. 4 might
deliver modest wins 5 * 10 times.
If everything goes right, only one becomes a true right tail
outcome. That is the lottery ticket.

(11:11):
This is why position sizing matters more than belief.
You are not betting on certainty.
You are buying exposure to a lowprobability branch with
asymmetric payoff. That only works if you survive
the failures emotionally and financially.
Now let us define kill signals, not disappointments.

(11:31):
Kill signals first. Emergency dilution.
If new shares are issued to fundoperations instead of growth,
the option structure collapses. 2nd governance decay, late
filings, amended reports, communication that gets less
precise over time in micro caps.Credibility is not soft, it is

(11:51):
the asset. 3rd franchise drift deals that stay signed but
unopened. Locations that open and quietly
underperform. That tells you the model is not
repeatable. Without repeatability, there is
no right tail. 4th narrative pivots.
When management shifts focus every quarter, the company stops

(12:13):
compounding and starts improvising.
That is usually the beginning ofthe end.
The key discipline is this. You do not wait for confirmation
of failure. You exit when the probability
structure breaks. Capital does not care about
intentions. This is why we frame MEDH as an
option, not a promise. The moment the structure no
longer supports the option, the rational move is to walk away.

(12:36):
This is where everything comes together, the math, the mindset
and the discipline. MEDH is not a conviction bet, It
is an asymmetric position. At the current price of 0.0009
this is sized like a long dated equity option, 1% allocation,
not more. That way a total loss is

(12:57):
survivable, but a right tail outcome matters.
And that sizing is not conservative.
It is precise. Most investors fail here by
oversizing early and then being forced out emotionally before
the thesis resolves. The rule is simple.
Start at 1%. Do not add unless execution
proves itself. 2% only after sustained profitability and real

(13:19):
platform traction, 3% only if the structure clearly shifts.
This is not buy and forget, it is monitor and decide.
You are constantly asking is uncertainty going down?
Is repeatability improving? Is capital discipline holding?
And you must accept opportunity cost.
This capital could be elsewhere.That cost only makes sense if

(13:41):
the option structure remains intact.
If this way of thinking resonates, we have explored it
deeper in the mindset series TheAsymmetry Investor, The Math of
Conviction, and The Asymmetry Mindset.
How to see 100 Ties before it happens.
Those episodes focus on how to size risk before outcomes are
known. If MEDH succeeds, the framework

(14:03):
works. If it partially succeeds, the
sizing works. If it fails, the loss is
controlled. No outcome breaks the process.
That is what separates operatorsfrom tourists in micro caps.
Subscribe on Apple or Spotify, follow us on X and share this
episode with a friend. Help us reach 10,000 downloads.
The music in this episode is licensed under standard

(14:25):
agreements. Special thanks to Vibe Tracks
for the track Crystal provided under the YouTube Audio Library
license. Copyright 2025 Finance Frontier
AI The. Voices in this episode are AI
hosts. Max Vanguard is powered by Grok
4. Sofia Sterling is fueled by
ChatGPT 5.2. Charlie Graham is guided by
Gemini 3.