August 7, 2025 • 44 mins
FT Resident GM Jim Bowden reacts to Roman Anthony’s extension and shares how much the Red Sox won with this deal.
We also ask if Jed Hoyer should still deal with the Nationals after Mike Soroka’s injury and how a change of scenery can help players thrive. Plus, Jim answers if the Yankees will make the playoffs or not.
Go to GreenChef.com/50TERRITORY and use code 50TERRITORY to get 50% off your first month, then 20% off for two months with free shipping.
(21:41) Anthony Volpe is struggling on defense this year. Former infielder Jason Kip offers his thoughts on the situation.
(23:03) What if Byron Buxton ended up on the Mets, the Braves or other clubs? The hosts examine his comments about wanting to remain in Minneapolis and wonder why he ultimately stayed put.
Earn points on rent and around your neighborhood, wherever you call home, by going to joinbilt.com/FOUL.
(31:53) Fangraphs writer Davy Andrews joins FT to discuss his latest article on playoff percentages, including how the process works, what statistics stood out to him, and what could be wrong with them. He also does a deep dive into a more interesting AL playoff picture.
Hosts: Jason Kipnis, AJ Pierzynski, Scott Braun
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:09):
Front off sunfiltered time resident GM, Jim Bowden joining us
right now, and we have business right at the top. JB.
Roman Anthony and the Red Sox get it done on
the extension. I'm sure you're pleased with this one. Your
instant reaction.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
I cannot believe Roman Anthony left that much money on
the table. I'm actually in a state of shock. I
don't understand how you can sit there and watch Ronal
Kunya Junior and watch Vladimir Gerro junior and see the
difference between the two, right, I mean, right now in
the bank, Vladimir Guro Junior is guaranteed five hundred and
(00:45):
seventy million, eight hundred thousand earnings. Ronaldikunya Junior, similar talent,
should be paid similarly, has one hundred million dollars. So
there's a difference of four hundred and seventy million between
the two. And Roman Anthony just signed a Ronda Cunya deal.
Ronal Kunya got eight years one hundred Roman Anthony's doing
(01:05):
eight years, one hundred and thirty. I don't get it,
I really don't now. Matt Rodriguez negotiated the deal for
Frontline Athlete Management and I understand, if you're twenty one
years old, I understand it's really hard to turn down
one hundred and thirty million. I also understand that he'll
be a free agent to get at age twenty nine,
and he'll have a chance to get that seven hundred
(01:26):
and eight hundred million dollar deal by then. I get that.
I get the thinking behind it, but not when there's
that much money on the table. The last two years
of this deal alone, he left at least one hundred
million on the table, one hundred million, which is almost
exactly what he's signing for a one thirty. So, you know,
kudos to Craig Breslo and to John Henry and theo
(01:49):
Epstein and Tom Warner and everyone else that was able
to do this, because it's going to really help you
down the road. I love that Alexanthopolis did it with Akunya.
I love it from the club side. A boy, can
you imagine what Scott Boris is thinking right now? My goodness,
scud Bars doesn't have him.
Speaker 3 (02:07):
Skud Bars doesn't have him. Jim, So, what was your
job before you became a before Well you would tell
but that's a different story. But there's there's a long
list of guys that didn't sign that extension with Boris
and didn't make the money either, so you can go
both ways. Here's my question for a Jim. Since you
have the sport coat over the hoodie, which is an
informal formal look, which I kind of dig. I'm not
(02:28):
gonna lie because I'm jealous. But before you were a
TV star in a radio star, what was your job
in Major League Baseball?
Speaker 2 (02:35):
Well, I was a cenior vice president general manager of
Major League Baseball.
Speaker 3 (02:40):
So if you would have gone to a player that
you weres on your team and said, I can lock
this guy up and take money.
Speaker 4 (02:46):
From him that he might might earn down the road, would.
Speaker 3 (02:50):
You be happy with that or would you say, no, no, Roman,
don't sign this because I'm the GM and I just
watch the best for you.
Speaker 2 (02:58):
Aj you know the answer. I was so happy.
Speaker 4 (03:03):
On the table.
Speaker 2 (03:04):
Of course, I would have liked to have signed Anthony
for ninety million instead of one hundred and thirty. And
I would have tried everything to do that because that
was the hat or the sports jacket I was wearing
at the time. Yeah, it's the job. I get it.
At the same time, you know, I like what Atlanta
did with Acuna on the club side, I didn't like
what it does for Acunya. I get it. I mean
(03:26):
now I'm in a neutral spot right now. I'll just
tell you the way it is. And Anthony left too
much money on the table he did. I'm happy for
the Red Sox. This was a huge This is the
best move Craig Breslo has made since he got the job,
to be honest.
Speaker 1 (03:39):
And the Red Sox in general have been locking up
some of their youngsters. I mean, this is the guy
that they're most excited about from a prospect perspective, no doubt,
and now you're seeing it in the big leagues. I'm
going to take a different turn on this one with
JB because you're neutral now and you know everything about
obviously how these deals get done because you did it
for a long period of time. Can you put your
agency hat on and tell me what you would say
(04:01):
to Roman Anthony to try and prevent him from taking
on a deal like this, because the agent's job is
to communicate any offer that's on the table, And for
the Red Sox they're probably like, okay, Corbyn, Kyle, that
was one eleven. We got to blow pass that let's
get to one thirty. What's the line where we tell
a twenty one year old one hundred and thirty million
dollars and he takes it. It's it's tough for a
twenty one year old to turn down that kind of money,
(04:23):
even if he can make hundreds of millions more.
Speaker 2 (04:26):
Yeah, I think I would show him the algorithm and
the amount of position star young position players that got
injured and career ended, which is a very very small number.
The odds are very very thin. And then I would
show him how much money he'll make through the salary
arbitration process, right, and a contract like this, he's going
to be at the top end of the three class,
(04:48):
the four class, the five class. But then I would
show him what he's giving up right in years seven
and eight in this deal, I would show him what
Guerrero just signed for. I would show him that Guerrero
next year will make forty million and ron Lkun is
going to make seventeen. That's just a fact. And they're
(05:09):
both equal talent. They should both be paid very similarly,
and they're not, so I would I would go through
that process, and then I would remind him that, you know,
Soto just got seven hundred and sixty five in the
open market. And then I would show him that Guerrero
got five hundred million on the open market, and I
would tell him that you're going to profile better than Guerrero.
(05:32):
I can't put you with Sodo yet. I think you
have the potential of being Soda or better. But I'll
put you between the two. And so I'm gonna show
you that sure you're getting one hundred and thirty million,
but you're leading at least one hundred million years seven
and eight. And if you want to do this, I
get it. But what is the risk if you go
through the system? Soto turned down four hundred and fifty
(05:53):
million from the Washington Nationals, turned it down, They traded him. Okay,
what did he end up with? So I just think
for a position player, in particular, an outfielder, when we
look at the last thirty years, the odds of him
having an Albert Bell, you know, hip injury the end
of career is very small. And you know, I would
(06:14):
tell him, hey, let's try to do a six year
deal without giving up free agency. I'm more than happy
to do that, but let's not give up those free
agent years, or if we give them up, we gotta
get forty to fifty million a year, because Guerrero's forty
is gonna be fifty by the time he gets there, right,
I don't want to give that up. I can't, and
so that'll be my pitch to him at the end
(06:36):
of the day and then we'll see what the Red
Sox say. But you know, I really have a problem
year seven and eight. I'm not giving it up. If
I'm the agent representing a superstar player like Roman Anthony.
There's other players I would do it with, but not
a player of this stature. FT fan.
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Speaker 3 (07:52):
Last thing on this before you let you go. Does
the impending labor strife possibility affect this in anyway? Because
the owners keep saying we want a salary cap, right,
the players keep saying we're not gonna get a salary
cap now. If they're somehow there becomes something in the middle,
whether it's a harder cap that what we technically have now, players'
(08:13):
earnings might not be unlimited like they were with Sodo
and Guerrero. Do you think you look at it from
that standpoint and say, well, if this happens, we might
not be able to get to five hundred plus million.
Speaker 2 (08:25):
Yeah, No, I definitely don't look at it that way.
And I respect the players' union and the people that
are involved. They're not gonna allow a system that's gonna
stop the star players from getting paid. They're not gonna
allow what has happened with the draft happened, and I
can't imagine with a strong player leadership that's there, I
can't imagine them allowing a system. Look, we have a
(08:48):
parody issue in this game that has to be fixed.
We need the smaller markets to be able to spend
more money to be more competitive. I get it, but
you can't. The players are not gonna allow. The union
is not gonna allow all all of a sudden, the
players not make what they deserve and get paid. I mean,
remember the percentage that players get is a lot less
(09:09):
than it was seven years ago and ten years ago.
They're not even getting their their fifty percent share or
more whatever you want to argue they deserve. So I just,
you know, again, I don't think it's a factor. Aj,
I understand where you're coming from. I just don't have
fear of those kind of things. Every time we have
a labor you know, disagreement or it's coming up everyone's
(09:30):
going to talk about work stoppages. You know, since Rob
Manford's been there, there hasn't been any work stoppage. And
those of us that lived through ninety four ninety five,
we're not doing that again. They're not gonna do it again.
They can talk about it. You know. It's just like
in the NFL with Micah Parson saying he wants to trade.
He doesn't want to trade, he wants his contract. He
wants to be the highest paid non quarterback in football,
and all this dialogue. It happens. The Bryce Harper rob
(09:54):
Banford thing. That's just negotiations. We're gonna have a deal
that works. Clubs aren't going to get what they want.
Players are gonna hopefully work hard to get the minimum
up and hopefully work hard to get the smaller markets
to be more competitive, and maybe work a little bit
harder on revenue sharing. And maybe we we you know,
toughen the soft cap a little bit, but not to
(10:14):
the extent where it's gonna affect star players from making
the money they deserve. My opinion, I got.
Speaker 6 (10:21):
A question for you. We're not letting you go just yet.
You can let your agent hack go off, but have
you put your GM hat back on.
Speaker 2 (10:27):
All right?
Speaker 6 (10:27):
If you're if you're Jed Hoyer, are you dealing with
the Nats anymore? Do you just get a sense of
this kind of bad faith with the Soroka dealer? What
is your take on all this?
Speaker 2 (10:35):
All right? So my take is clear and concise on this. Okay,
I go by the rulebook. It's up to the asany
club to do their homework on the medicals. It's their fault.
That's not the club. What the clubs do, and this
is this is and look, I got under similar criticism
when I traded Gary Macjeski to the Cincinnati Reds back
(10:57):
in the day, and people accuse me because he got
over there and he had issues. This is what I do.
Let the doctors talk to each other, share all the
medical information, let the other side exactly know what's going
on with every single player, and then it's up to
the team trading for the player to make that call. Now,
anyone that's watched Soroka's career knows his shoulder issues. I've
(11:17):
never gone away. Anyone that watched his last few starts
are the velocity has gone down. He didn't look right,
and the Cubs decided to do it. Anyway, that's on
Jed Hoyer. That was a risk he took, which was
you know, he took it, okay, whatever I mean. I
thought it was kind of I thought they needed to
go bigger, but they Jed got the contract before the deadline,
(11:39):
which okay, I got security. I don't want to trade
all my kids now. I would have waited if I
was an owner and signed Jed after the trade deadline,
because I want you to go for it. I want
you to make a bigger move than Mike Soroka, please.
So anyway, it's all on Jed, though, one hundred percent
on Jed, and he's owning it and he needs to fair.
Speaker 3 (11:57):
Enough, Jim, how many times did you trade for or
pick up a guy that you thought was underperforming? And
I'm gonna use Andrew Vaughan as an example, like how
much does a change of scenery really do for a player?
And to front offices look at that and say, man,
if we could just get this guy out of wherever
they're at and put him in a more positive culture
(12:18):
with a winning culture, that they actually performed Because since
Andrew Vaughn's been with the Brewers, he's been the MVP
of baseball.
Speaker 2 (12:24):
Yeah, he has been. That's a great, great point. So
we spend a lot of time in front offices concentrating
on players that we feel are underperforming with other teams,
and we get with the evaluators, the scouts, the development people,
the analytic people, and you get everybody together to say,
how do you fix this guy? If we trade it
(12:46):
for this guy, can we fix it? You know? And
the other thing is complicated. You know, we're not talking
about players. We're talking about human beings. Right, Is a
human being going to do better with a change of scenery?
Do we think if he came into our environment he
would be able to go to the next level? And
then vice versa. You have to be concerned, you know,
Jake Bird goes from the last place Rockies to the Yankees.
Pitching for a last place team is a lot difer
(13:08):
than pitching in New York City for the New York Yankees.
The pressure is different, the vibe is different, the lifestyle
is different, you know, And you got to calculate that
when Kacuci was traded Toronto to Houston, Dana Brown, the
GM of the Astros, and his data room, they knew
exactly what they wanted to do to Kacuci, and they
thought they could fix him. They did. He went over
there last year after the deadline and was like five
(13:29):
and one with like a two era. They made quick
adjustments with his repertoire, his pitch sequencing, and immediately paid dividends.
We used to get guys and say, hey, if we
changed the grip, or if we do this with his delivery,
if we put him on the other side of the rubber,
I think we can do this. Or you know, there's
also the guys in the middle. Like I remember when
I brought in Benito Santiago and Tony Fernandez. I didn't
(13:52):
know how that was. It was in ninety five. I
didn't know that was going to fit in the clubhouse.
So you know, I went to Barry Larkin, who was
one of the team leaders, and Lenny Harris, and I said,
you guys, think about these two guys because baseball wise,
they fit right sitting up there in the GM suite.
Fernandez can be goal glove third base right if I
put him there. Santiago upgrades are catching, but I'm not
(14:13):
sure how it's gonna fit in the room. What do
you guys think, will they fit in the room, and
if they don't, can we handle it? And when they
bought in, then okay, I'll go forward and make those moves.
So it's complicated because we're talking about human element and
then we're talking about how can I fix a guy?
And then sometimes you got to be concerned. I remember
when I worked for the Yankees, there was always the
(14:35):
big issue. Loop Panela and Gen Michael kept pounding with me.
You know, you gotta be careful because there's not a
lot of guys that can handle New York. And you've
got to really study the player because you can have
a pitcher that's pitching great for the Angels or Padres,
but you bring them over to New York and they
can't handle it. So you have to really study it
both ways to see. But change the scenery can certainly help.
(14:57):
It can also backfire.
Speaker 1 (14:59):
Yeah, thanks are dealing with a little bit of that
right now with a reliever or two, which is a
whole other topic. But JB, I want to ask you
about the trade deadline. We see the grades, we see
the super libs, the whole deal, the trade deadline passed.
This is what I love. The few days after the
trade deadline and it's still happening, right. There's still articles
this morning about it, the conversations that went down, the
(15:19):
what ifs, right, stuff that didn't happen, or players blocking deal.
So I'll give you dealer's choice on this one from
Ken Rosenthal reporting about how the Padres landed Mason Miller
and some of the other teams, you know, turning down
Miller because they didn't want to give up some of
those top prospects, right, Phillies, I think Mets were on
that list, et cetera. Byron Buxton saying no to potentially
(15:40):
being moved because he wants some to stay with Minnesota
or any others that you saw those what ifs? Which
one stood out to you?
Speaker 2 (15:47):
Yeah? I mean I think the Mason Miller deal I
loved a lot, only just as a former GM, just
understanding the people that made the deal. Right. Aj Preller
sitting there trying to win now, never been afraid to trade,
trade Turner or James Wood or C. J. Abrams, Rickenzie Gore,
never afraid. Has built a core that isn't going away,
and he's got a window to win a World Series
(16:09):
and there's not a prospect he won't trade, and it
was fascinating to me because what did he do. He
traded him to the athletics where, although he's not in
the limelight anymore, behind the scenes, one of the owners
named Billy Bean, had a long record. Remember the Addison
Russell trade for Jeff Samargia, Like he did the exact
same thing. That's why I text Billy Bean afterwards to
(16:32):
tell him, Yeah, you're fraid of Prince all over this one, Billy.
But to me, that was such such a great deal
because you know, AJ can call him and say, you know, look,
I traded Trade Turner, I traded James Wood, I traded
for Fernando Tatis Junior. I'm going to do the same
thing for you. I'm going to give you an all
star shortstop. He's a teenager and he'll be ready for Vegas.
(16:54):
But I need to win now and I need Mason Miller,
so I need your best asset. But I'll give you
my best future asset and for you three years from now,
you're gonna be really happy because everyone's gonna be asking me,
how could you trade James Wood and Devrees? But what
he's trying to do is win a championship. That's what
AJ's trying to do right now, I'd have made that
(17:14):
deal too. Now if I'm the Athletics, i'd have made
the trade, right. I mean, you got a chance to
get your future face of the franchise. Of course you're
gonna make that trade. So that was the most intriguing,
And the one on Buxton was kind of funny because
I remember when he was a young kid over in
spring training. I went over to Fort Myers and was
talking to him. He had the Minnesota Twins' logo tattooed
(17:37):
on his back, and I said, Byron, how do you
know you're going to spend your curer in Minnesota? You
know this game, you know this turnover. He said, no,
I'm gonna spend my career here. I said, you don't
know that. You could be a free agent. You could
get traded Byron. Buxton has the tattoo, and he honestly's
gonna finish his whole career. He is. He got the
no trade and he literally, no matter how bad they get,
(17:57):
he wants to stay there. So I got a big
out of so many teams trying to trade for him
and him just saying, no, I'm not going anywhere. So
if you give up someone and no trade. You gotta
live up.
Speaker 6 (18:08):
To it, all right.
Speaker 3 (18:10):
I got so many things off the answer you just
gave one. You gotta call him Preller because AJ is
on this show. Okay, the real one. Okay, Preler and
Hinch Okay, Jim. So if you're gonna keep coming on here,
this is AJ. They're Preler and Hinch.
Speaker 2 (18:22):
All right, Okay, I'll call him. I'm gonna call him
King Preller. Then I got it.
Speaker 4 (18:26):
That's fine. Do you call him whatever you want as
long as it's not AJ. Okay. And then, second of all,
Eric Milton.
Speaker 3 (18:31):
Eric Milton once had a Yankees tattoo on his left shoulder,
and then he got traded to the Twins and he's like,
now what do I do?
Speaker 4 (18:36):
And we're like, yeah, he shouldn't have probably caught that tattoo,
So yeah.
Speaker 3 (18:39):
I fier bucks and has the no trade clause. Milton
got it before and then he got traded to the Twins.
Speaker 4 (18:44):
All right, But then.
Speaker 3 (18:46):
For real, I just I just want to know. This
is it last question for me? Will the Yankees make
the playoffs this year? With the way they're currently constructed because.
Speaker 4 (18:54):
They can't make any more moves?
Speaker 2 (18:55):
Will they make the playoffs, I'm gonna go no, and
I'm gonna go no because I'm gonna go no just
because I really love the al Wes three teams right now.
I just do. I mean, I think what Seattle did
at the deadline, I think they can get to the
World Series now. And I still all I've been on
Texas's bandwagon. I thought they would hit more with their
(19:16):
pitching has been really good. And Houston's not going away.
So if I put those three teams there, Detroit and
then Boston and Toronto may finish ahead of the New
York Yankees. So you know, I don't know. There's just
the vibe in New York's not great. They're not playing well.
You know, it's not a great defensive team. And I'm
worried about Aaron Judge. I've been clear about that because
(19:38):
the way the Yankees announced his injury, they said there
was no acute injury to the older collaterallignment. Then they
said there's a PRP injection. So that means there's a
tear in the older collateralligment. That's what it means. It
may be a slight tear, but there's a tear. It's
intact is what they said, right, and acute injury and
it's intact all that can be true. But this is
(19:59):
the same as Garrett Cole. So there's a tear. That's
why you don't shoot the PRP in there. If you're
not trying to strengthen the liga then and you're not
trying to strengthen the ligaments if it's completely strong. And
I just worry about that, you know, because if you
lose air and judge, this team can't win if their
MVP isn't in that lineup, And I'm worried about the bullpen,
(20:19):
you know, and I'm worried about Vulpi. I don't understand
the gold Glover why he's struggling like he is. So yeah,
I wouldn't be surprised if they miss out.
Speaker 1 (20:27):
Yeah, this is an avalanche of issues and it's surprising,
but here we are, and there are a few teams
coming after him. JB. Great stuff. This was a good
little catch up post deadline. Appreciate the time and we'll
catch you soon.
Speaker 2 (20:40):
Thanks guys, appreciate it. Thanks Jan.
Speaker 6 (20:44):
Krats.
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Make sure to use our URL so they know we
sent you. Join Built dot com slash foul. Go for it. Hey, well,
we've got our little middle infielder with us KIT. What
are your thoughts on what Anthony Volpi is going through?
I mean, it's a gold gloves shortstop who has had
significant throwing issues that seem mental heat does not seem
(21:55):
like he has his confidence defensively.
Speaker 6 (21:58):
Yeah, I mean we've seen him be a fantastic defender,
so we know it's in there. I think he just
kind of needs to make up his mind. Hey, I'm
going to attack everything. I think that takes the kind
of guesswork out of it. I think when you're you're
indecisive or indifferent on what to do in the ball
or how much time to take, just say, hey, listen,
I'm going to attack every single thing and attack all
(22:19):
these throws. So my mind's made up on how I'm
going to approach the ball, how I'm going to approach
his throw. There's no guesswork in it, there's no second guessing,
And I think it just kind of simplifies things because
I think right now is his wheels are turning a
little bit too much because it's an AJ can attest
to this too. Can't play trying not to screw up.
You have to attack the game. You have to play
(22:40):
to make the plays. You can't play like when you're
when you swing to like just not strike out. It's
not your normal swing, So you're going to strike out.
When you try not to throw an air, you're gonna like, oh,
I gotta get it there. You're gonna drop the armslot
and then here goes to throw into the stand. So
it's like you just have to attack the game and
like it'll start to come back to you real fast then,
I think. But he he just looks like those wheels
(23:00):
are turning real fast right now.
Speaker 1 (23:03):
What if Byron Buxton ended up on the New York
Mets or the Atlanta Braves. I'm not just saying this
out of the blue. Dan Hayes has done great work.
I think he's working with Ken Rosenthal behind the scenes
on this as well, both of them writing for The Athletic.
This one from Hayes. Byron Buxton told inquiring teams no,
and then he put some other notes in that article
as well. But let's focus on Byron Buxton a couple
(23:25):
quotes here to start. So first off, he said, where
I came from, your word means everything. My track record
of how I'm still here and how I got here
is different. You've got to have a lot of people
behind you, not just the family, but everybody Minnesota did that.
That's home. He really started his campaign for him staying
in Minneapolis at the All Star Game. He received a
number of questions about if he could be on the
(23:46):
trade block, and he's like, I could not because I
have a no trade class, and I say no. So
they didn't even entertain anything except for the phone calls
that came through to Byron Buxton's agency. I'm saying the
Twins didn't entertain anything. Byron bucks agency got a number
of calls from teams who clearly were interested, and he
told them the same thing, don't waste your time. He's
(24:06):
not going to wave the no trade clause. Now here
comes the social media storm.
Speaker 2 (24:11):
Kip.
Speaker 1 (24:11):
You do have fans that say the Twins just sold
half their team away. They're going to be sold. There
are some good pieces there, but why does he want
to stay if he has an opportunity to join a
contender and not the Braves. The Braves aren't good this year.
He's from Georgia. There were some connections there, but some
other teams were interested as well. There were a number
of teams that called. But for example, fans are like,
why wouldn't Buckston want to join the Mets when they're
(24:32):
in a playoff race and the Twins are not.
Speaker 6 (24:36):
I yeah, I can appreciate his loyalty. I can appreciate
a man of his word. I can appreciate that he
wants to finish what he started or build there because
they gave him the chance. All that stuff. That's great stuff,
and I know the front office appreciates that and loves that.
But you look around that clubhouse, almost everyone's gone. Your
(24:58):
team is, your ownership is kind of not gone for
it when you have had good teams recently, so they
aren't really about winning as much as you'd like him
to be. If you just said he's from Georgia. Let's
say Atlanta was good this year. Every one in your
starting lineup is pretty much gone. Atlanta is great this year,
let's say hypothetically, and they're trying to trade for you
so you can go home play for a hometown team
(25:21):
in a playoff race, and you're still gonna hold strong
of that. No, I don't get it. I guess I'd
like to think there are circumstances that should happen where
an answer should change. You would think as a player,
you would want to experience that experience. The playoff runs,
the deep playoff runs, because that's what we're all trying
to do anyways. So I don't know. I appreciate the loyalty,
(25:45):
but I also don't understand why staying there when they're
rebuilding it makes sense just or that doesn't make sense
to me, I guess.
Speaker 3 (25:57):
I mean Jim Boden said it. He has a touch
to the Twins logo on his back. He's not going anywhere,
and it's his right.
Speaker 4 (26:03):
So listen.
Speaker 3 (26:04):
As much as I don't know if I could be
able to be as strong as Byron Bucks and say
I'm staying with the Twins, there is something cool about
being with one team, your whole career in one organization.
So I can't fault a guy. Listen, he got the
no trade clause and he wants to stick by it.
I mean, if you're a Twins fan, you have to
respect that. If you're a person in general, you have
to respect that. So could he move on to a
(26:25):
different place. He could, but he's comfortable. His family's comfortable there.
He might have a place in Four Myers, he might
have a place in Minnesota. He goes from four Myers
to Minnesota, his wife and his kids and his family
is comfortable with that. So I can't fault a guy
for that. As much as people to say, oh, he
doesn't want to win. Oh he doesn't want this, he
doesn't want that, you know what, it's his choice.
Speaker 4 (26:45):
I'm sure there's people out there.
Speaker 3 (26:46):
In regular world that if that work at a company
and another company comes and offers him a little bit
something better, and they're like, you know what, I'm gonna
stick with the company I'm with because I'm comfortable. And
I have to give that guy credit, because listen, if
I could have played for one team my whole career,
would have loved to have done it. But you know what,
I wasn't that fortunate. If you're fortunate enough to do it,
good for you. Byron Buxton.
Speaker 1 (27:05):
And clearly he likes the way they're treating him too, guys.
I mean he's happy with you know, the front office
is usually you know, I mean talked about very highly right,
Derek Fabian company over there in Minnesota, Thad Levin who
was there for a while. He was just on our
show the other day, known as one of the nicer
guys in the sport. So it's not like he's in
one of those disaster scenarios and we all know they exist.
Speaker 6 (27:24):
No, I'm saying I appreciate, I I can appreciate absolutely
everything that he's doing insane. I I do love it,
and he's earned the right to make that decision for himself.
I think he needs to get is it hobby hobby
bias that has the MLB logo tattoo on the back
of his neck? Ye, the way he's covered for any
team that he goes to. So he just gets the
MLB logo.
Speaker 1 (27:44):
Yeah, unless you end up playing in a different league.
Right if you're in the Mexican League and NPV and.
Speaker 6 (27:48):
Run out, Yeah, run out of ideas.
Speaker 4 (27:50):
Did you play with anybody?
Speaker 3 (27:52):
Because I played with some guys in the minor leagues
that got that tattoo and I was like, what if you.
Speaker 4 (27:56):
Don't make it?
Speaker 3 (27:56):
And they're like, oh Megan, they didn't make it, And
I'm like, uh, do you cover that thing with so molts?
Speaker 6 (28:01):
He had it before he was up with the big leagues.
But I think he was on his way.
Speaker 3 (28:04):
Yeah, he was a first rounder. I think he was
gonna be okay. This guy was like not, these guys.
Speaker 1 (28:09):
Are not rounds.
Speaker 4 (28:11):
They were not.
Speaker 3 (28:11):
There's a guy headed on his arm. There was a
guy who they had on his neck. I was like,
what if you don't make it?
Speaker 1 (28:16):
It's good motivation because it's like I have to make it.
Speaker 6 (28:18):
I have to. Yeah, I got the tacks like the team.
Speaker 4 (28:22):
It's like the team is like, oh, he has a tattoo,
we need to send him to the big leagues.
Speaker 6 (28:26):
What about this guy he's tatted up with the love
by the.
Speaker 1 (28:30):
Way, these two players, this guy hasn't tack.
Speaker 4 (28:35):
By the way.
Speaker 3 (28:35):
I just want to say this for the record. So
Jim Boden told the story of Byron Bucks and Eric
Milton had New York Yankee logo on his left arm.
I played with a guy I think his name was
Greg Hanson. Hanson, I think that was right. And he
had every he played for like nine teams so down
his leg. It started with the first team, and so
he had to keep getting the tattoos all the way
down his legs. So he ended up playing for like
(28:56):
eight or nine teams, so he.
Speaker 6 (28:57):
Had them all all the way done his leg.
Speaker 3 (29:03):
He'll get a tattoo if you're not one hundred percent sure, guys, Okay,
just saying, especially of a team in baseball, because guess
what they can do.
Speaker 4 (29:09):
They can get rid of your really fastly. You have
one kip.
Speaker 6 (29:13):
No, no, I do not have a team logo. There
you go, Hey, one more questions and they can get
rid of you real fast.
Speaker 1 (29:20):
Right, one more question on this, because there's a guy
who's really is a legend in our sport, is going
to be a Hall of Famer, but the back half
of his career has not played out the way he's
wanted it to. What do you think about the Mike
Trout example, for Byron Buckston, who's already cracked open his
early thirties here and you just don't get too many
cracks at a World Series title. Does any of that
(29:41):
factor in here? Or you just have to have that
that goal that you want to win with the team
that you're with and you've got the new trade cause
you've got to overcome you know what the desire is
from outside?
Speaker 2 (29:52):
Right.
Speaker 1 (29:52):
I'm sure Trout's thought about it too. It's been talked
about sometimes in the offseason. It doesn't sound like he's
ever pushed the team though, So I wonder if that's
in Byron's headed off because you just don't know, right,
I mean, and he's had problems staying on the field.
It's like, you're thriving this year. There's teams that want you,
that can tend you want to say no to Atlanta,
go for it, they're not in the playoffs this year,
but you want to say no to the three or
four other teams that were interested.
Speaker 6 (30:16):
It's I'm interested to see when It's like a player
can always tell kind of when they're nearing the end.
So if when the two of them maybe have like
two years left, three years left, maybe uh, and then
there's just no light at the end of the tunnel
for the organization, I'm wondering if you'll start to see
maybe he starts more a trout, just to give it
(30:38):
a give it a chance.
Speaker 1 (30:40):
Okay, okay, But also, like Aj.
Speaker 6 (30:43):
Said that you're you're at you're on the you're at
the home finish of playing your whole career for one team,
which is really cool.
Speaker 1 (30:49):
Yeah, it's just the ring desire, right, I mean, everybody
wants every Scott.
Speaker 3 (30:55):
Not everybody wins a ring. Kip didn't win a ring.
I was fortunate enough to win one, right, not everybody
wins one. But listen, Joe Mallard didn't win one. He's
in the Hall of Fame because he stayed with one
team his whole career, right, I.
Speaker 4 (31:06):
Mean, it's kind of cool. Right to know this, Mike
Trout's probably gonna stay with the Angels entire career. Pretty cool.
Speaker 1 (31:12):
Basic Matt though, is that if you're on a non
contender right now and they sold out their team away
and then they're going through an ownership change and they
might be good eventually, right Like, he's got a shot
at winning with this new group, But percentage chance, I mean,
you've got a better chance joining a contender now and
rolling that way. It's just it is what it is.
But it's the choice that he made. That's all just
presenting both sides. I actually kind of been in the
(31:34):
middle on this one because I would be more critical
if I felt like the player was on like an
absolute disaster scenario team and he only had a couple
of years left. Fyron Buxton should have, you know, hopefully
five or six years left in his career, and the
Twins will definitely be able to bounce back from where
they are. They were in the playoffs two years ago
and they're going to have a new owners, So I'm
okay with it. Davey Andrews joining us right now from
(31:55):
Fangrafts for the first time on FT. Daved, great to
have you on the show here and perfect timing because
past the trade deadline and now people want to know
playoff percentage chances for their ball club. So how you doing.
Speaker 7 (32:06):
I'm good, Thank you for having me. It's fun to
be on. I see you guys background and I do
not have the same house as major leaguers as what
I'm doing.
Speaker 1 (32:15):
Well, I don't either. I'm in a little apartment. But
you can fake it till you make it all day. Okay, Davey,
tell me about playoff percentages that you wrote about in fangrafts,
how they vary, what goes into them, and what has
stood out to you at the recent look at who
could you know, crack the playoffs that could surprise us
or who could miss out that could surprise us?
Speaker 7 (32:35):
Right, Well, so I would start first, which is how
they work. I mean, the biggest thing is they take
your record, and then they look at your strength of
schedule for the rest of the season, and then they
look at your projections. So we're talking about how good
the projections think your team is, and so based on
all of that, they spit out a number the percentage
chance that you make the playoffs. So like the Dodgers
(32:55):
are at the top with ninety nine point six percent
chance because they're in first Iceland, because they're the Dodgers
with a really good team, and then there are plenty
of teams at the bottom with zero. So the reason
I wrote about it yesterday is that I was looking
at the numbers and I realized that this is kind
of the most stratified that the numbers have been in
(33:15):
a long time. Like in the National League, the Reds
have a thirteen point six percent chance of making the playoffs,
and then above them today is the Mets at eighty
nine point one percent, So they basically the numbers think
the National League is one hundred percent settled right now.
Obviously I'm doing some rounding here, but but I was
looking at it. I was like, Man, the numbers say
this is the most boring postseasons or stretch run since
(33:37):
we started keeping track of them.
Speaker 1 (33:40):
Wow, that's crazy. So I will bring up what some
will say, including Reds fans, remember last year the Detroit Tigers,
what was their percentage chance of making the playoffs at
this point.
Speaker 7 (33:53):
Zero point two percent? And you can buy a T
shirt with the Fangrafts graph that goes down, down, down,
down down, all the way up at the very end.
And you could also look at the twenty nineteen Indians
Guardians to bring it close to home here, I'm sorry
that who a week from this point in the season,
we're at ninety six percent above ninety six percent and
(34:13):
didn't make it. So it happens all the time, you know.
I think when when you hear a number like this
and you hear it's like a ninety percent chance, you think, well,
that means it's a done deal. But what it means
is one out of ten times the opposite thing is
going to happen.
Speaker 4 (34:26):
Whoa, whoa, whoa? Was Kip on that team? Kip? Were
you on that twenty nineteen choke job team?
Speaker 6 (34:31):
What I thought we did make the playoffs?
Speaker 7 (34:37):
All right, Well then I feel less bad bringing it up.
Speaker 4 (34:40):
Okay, all right, well that's amazing.
Speaker 3 (34:44):
Well so then this is just a percent like everything
has to go right or wrong for a team to
make the playoffs.
Speaker 4 (34:50):
Because if you.
Speaker 3 (34:51):
Look at it right now, the Brewers are what ninety
nine point one percent, They have a nice small lead
on the Cubs. The Cubs are ninety six percent. But
like kind of what Scott said, the Reds team is
looking at like, hey, we're hot right now, We're playing
really well. We made some nice acquisitions. This is more
like if something crazy doesn't happen, right, this is just
more of like textbook things just continue as they've gone
(35:14):
for the first four and a half months.
Speaker 7 (35:16):
Right, So you can in my article, I kind of
broke down the pros and the cons for the Reds
and like you're saying, there's a lot of pros here,
like they're gonna get Hunter green back, and they've got
Ellie day La Cruz who looks like he can just
carry a team, and if the additions they made at
the deadline work out, if Cabrian Hayes looks out at
the short fence in the Cincinnati and things, oh maybe
I should start lifting the ball a little to hit
(35:38):
it over like all of a sudden they're going to
start rolling. And they could absolutely do it. But they
also have I think the second toughest schedule the rest
of the way, and they've had an easy schedule to
this point. So some of the numbers that you're looking
at may be a little rosier than the real picture says,
and just the projections, like I mean, like what the
(35:59):
Phillies and did a lot, and the Padres a lot,
and so all of a sudden, these other teams added
to and added more, and so it's just it's a
tough road. So it's they're trying to factor in everything.
Obviously baseball is going to baseball. There's no way to
predict everything. But this year did stand out just because
the numbers are so stratified.
Speaker 4 (36:20):
Davy, who's your team?
Speaker 7 (36:23):
I mean, I'm a national skuy first and foremost, so
they've been at zero for a long time.
Speaker 3 (36:28):
Now that's fine. I mean, I'm a white sex guy.
They were at zero before the year started, so I
get it.
Speaker 4 (36:32):
I get it.
Speaker 3 (36:33):
But they did win a World Series in twenty nineteen.
My question is the Yankees. Where were the Yankees at
six weeks ago? And now were they at? Because the
American League has kind of shifted, right, the Yankees were
dominating and were like, oh, Yankees are close to ninety
percent whatever they were, and now what's their number compared
to with like the Mariners, the Rangers, all these teams
that have kind of jumped in front of them.
Speaker 7 (36:53):
Right, I would say the Yankees are one of those
teams who have seemed to defy gravity. Right now, they're
at seventy eight point eight, which is is down a
little bit. You know, they have been really struggling. But
the numbers, the projections, are a big part of this,
where they're looking at individual players and expecting them to contribute.
And so if Aaron Judge comes back healthy, then all
of a sudden that lineup is terrifying. If he doesn't,
(37:15):
the projections can't really tell you that. So if Aaron
Judge isn't there and hitting like Aaron Judge, then like,
throw this number in the garbage. Basically, you know, all
of this stuff depends on health and luck and short
sample sizes, all things that can go either way at
the drop of a hat. So so far, the numbers
have really liked the Yankees. But when we're watching it
(37:35):
with our eyes, it looks a lot scarier.
Speaker 1 (37:39):
So let's transition over to the al What are you
seeing from the playoff projection numbers there?
Speaker 7 (37:46):
Well, so, I mean the Tigers still are in first.
The Tigers look genuinely scary, and you know, I think
once you get into the playoffs they look even more scary.
You know, with the way they rolled in the postseason
last year where just Scoogle was unhittable, and they kind
of scraped enough together. They're bullpen isn't looking quite as good,
but I mean they're at ninety eight percent right now.
(38:07):
They've pretty much got the central locked up, and then
below them, it's a little bit of a mix. You know,
the Ale East is going to be a real battle
regardless of who ends up making the playoffs and doesn't.
I think the Al East will be really fun. The
Red Sox are on a run right now, the Blue
Jays have been on a run, and the Yankees have
the pieces where if they all put it together, those
(38:29):
could be three really good teams down the stretch and
it should be really fun.
Speaker 1 (38:34):
Cap. We got to ask about your boys, because no
one's talking about them, but they're actually only, what is it,
a game and a half away from a playoff spot
right now. I don't know if the projections love them, but.
Speaker 2 (38:46):
To present, it never loves them.
Speaker 6 (38:47):
It never loves them because it's not like there's never
been an besides Jose, there's never been huge home run
hitters that can really like switch it that the statistical side,
the analytical side loves to like kind of go off that.
Speaker 7 (38:59):
And we shouldn't know that the projections tend to regress
heavily on defense, which means when you're a good defensive club,
they don't trust you as much because they sort of
expect defense to balance out, and so for a team
like the Guardians who have some premium defenders like that
is a reason to look at the numbers with a
little more suspicion and a little more hope.
Speaker 6 (39:20):
I appreciate you saying a nice thing about the Guardians there.
Speaker 7 (39:23):
I love the Guardians. I'd end up writing about them
all the time just because they always have fun people.
Speaker 6 (39:30):
I think. I'm trying to think of aj would you
actually you might be the wrong person answer as this question,
but because okay, because I already know your answer, I think,
would you ever look at something like this and give
it any stock and if you were a player playing?
Speaker 4 (39:44):
No? Absolutely not.
Speaker 3 (39:47):
Actually no, actually that's all right, because I would be like, oh,
we're only projected to win seventy two games through them.
I'm gonna try and win one hundred games and be like, yeah,
fan Grafts, you don't know what you're talking about.
Speaker 6 (39:58):
Fair enough. I like it, though, No every play like, okay, well,
good thing, it's settled in between the White Lions like,
it's fine, we got this then, So I think that's
you're right, that's the best way to use it. Pen
if it's not telling you already end.
Speaker 1 (40:09):
We've heard it brought up as bulletin board material before, Davy.
I'm sure you know and can talk about it.
Speaker 7 (40:14):
More, especially from the Guardians for this very reason that
you know, like they've had a lot of premium defenders
in the past and so the numbers have not trusted
them and they've just gone on some really fun and
probable runs. So yeah, I mean, I think if you're
a player, I can't imagine looking at this for anything
other than, you know, bulletin board material.
Speaker 2 (40:33):
Yeah.
Speaker 6 (40:33):
I don't know if you're talking about me with premium
defenders in the past. Maybe my other guys in the infield,
I thought, But you.
Speaker 7 (40:40):
Have the pop, the projections love pop.
Speaker 2 (40:42):
Thank you.
Speaker 6 (40:43):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (40:43):
Andre Samenez had the glove there recently for Cleveland. Yeah,
he was. He was probably the best defensive second basement
for a year or two there. My question to you,
Davy is where do you think it's wrong?
Speaker 5 (40:55):
Right?
Speaker 1 (40:55):
Where are you looking where either other numbers that you
like tell you you otherwise, or just the eye test
tells you otherwise, And I'll stay on American League because,
like you said, I'm with you. It's gonna be hard
to convince anyone that there's a better top six. And
they've got like this real clean cut top six in
the National League, but it's not quite the case.
Speaker 4 (41:12):
In the AL.
Speaker 1 (41:13):
So how do you see the AL playing out these
next couple months?
Speaker 4 (41:17):
Right?
Speaker 7 (41:17):
I mean the big thing is is the Rangers, Like
right now, they're at forty percent, and so that's a
decent chance, but they'd have to be thrown either, you know,
like the Mariners, Astros, the Red Sox, the Yankees. You know,
there are a lot of teams in the mix here,
and I think the Rangers just look really dangerous right now.
They have so many hitters who could get into shape,
(41:38):
and so many pitchers who could really put together dominant
stretches like you saw Ivaldi last night, just completely shoving.
I think the Rangers could really not only like close strong,
but like look like a team that nobody wants to face.
Speaker 3 (41:52):
Would you want to face Evaldi and de Grom in
the postseason if you had to go one two in
a short series, in a three game series in your
first two starters, you get de Grom and Evaldi that
it sounds like it wouldn't be a lot of fun. David,
I know you're a nats man, so you get the
Strasbourg Ureser comparisons.
Speaker 7 (42:07):
There, right, absolutely? Yeah, I mean I don't think anybody
wants to face the gram ever.
Speaker 3 (42:12):
Yeah, true, especially when he's healthy. All right, So I
have two quick questions for you. When was the last
time the Braves were zero percent? Our producer lady at Claudia,
she's like she's a huge Braves homer, so she's like
crying about the Braves. So when was the last time
the Braves were zero percent?
Speaker 7 (42:26):
Oh my god, I'd have to look it up. I mean,
it's this is such a weird year and and even now,
like you look at that team and I mean, obviously
it's different with the Kuna Goan, but it has been
a while. I would guess it's been five or six years.
Speaker 4 (42:40):
Okay, since I was there in twenty sixteen.
Speaker 3 (42:42):
I get it.
Speaker 6 (42:42):
It's what I was looking because thanks for.
Speaker 4 (42:44):
Rubbing it in. I appreciate it, Thank you, love it.
Speaker 7 (42:47):
I did before I came on at the years you
were there and.
Speaker 4 (42:50):
That, Yeah, I was looking there were zero.
Speaker 3 (42:52):
They were zero from the time we took the field
and spring training, So I get it. No, no big deal.
The gnats were good then, So I'm all right. So
before we let you go, I have to ask you this.
You have your soundboard up there, looks like on your door.
I know you played guitar, right, you play guitar and
some bands. M what's what's cooler playing guitar in front
of a live crowd or writing an article like just
(43:14):
did a million people look at and read and trust
that your numbers are correct?
Speaker 4 (43:19):
Well?
Speaker 7 (43:19):
I think playing I don't know. I'm dell with playing guitar.
Here's why, because I didn't come up with these numbers.
Speaker 2 (43:25):
I am not.
Speaker 7 (43:27):
There are a lot of smart people at Fangrafts, and
I am not part of that club. I can put
the words down, but as far as the math behind
and behind them and explaining all of it, they're much
smarter people than I am. So I gotta go with
the guitar.
Speaker 1 (43:42):
Like he did his homework.
Speaker 4 (43:46):
This was his chance to pump his bands, and he
didn't do it.
Speaker 7 (43:49):
So you guys, you guys have had Petriello on we
play in a band together, So.
Speaker 1 (43:54):
Oh no way, I didn't know that the band. That's
really cool. Okay, what's the band name?
Speaker 7 (44:00):
Where the Subway goes? We got a show next week,
so if anybody is, you know, around in New York,
check us out.
Speaker 1 (44:06):
Okay, well yeah, look them up. Subway Ghost. I love that.
Davey is a is a multi whatever you want to
call multi entertainment threat, dual threat. Very cool, baby, this
was awesome. Thank you for joining us. Really appreciate the
look into those playoff projections, as many people will look
at them like these guys do and use it as
bulletin board material whatever else. So we appreciate the entertainment
(44:29):
and the info from fangrafts all the.
Speaker 7 (44:31):
Time, my pleasure. They are there for people to shout about.
Speaker 1 (44:35):
Yes, exactly right. Criticism welcome, bring it, bring it, Davy,
thank you so much. Appreciate it again.
Speaker 7 (44:42):
All right, thanks, have a good one, guys,
Front off sunfiltered time resident GM, Jim Bowden joining us
right now, and we have business right at the top. JB.
Roman Anthony and the Red Sox get it done on
the extension. I'm sure you're pleased with this one. Your
instant reaction.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
I cannot believe Roman Anthony left that much money on
the table. I'm actually in a state of shock. I
don't understand how you can sit there and watch Ronal
Kunya Junior and watch Vladimir Gerro junior and see the
difference between the two, right, I mean, right now in
the bank, Vladimir Guro Junior is guaranteed five hundred and
(00:45):
seventy million, eight hundred thousand earnings. Ronaldikunya Junior, similar talent,
should be paid similarly, has one hundred million dollars. So
there's a difference of four hundred and seventy million between
the two. And Roman Anthony just signed a Ronda Cunya deal.
Ronal Kunya got eight years one hundred Roman Anthony's doing
(01:05):
eight years, one hundred and thirty. I don't get it,
I really don't now. Matt Rodriguez negotiated the deal for
Frontline Athlete Management and I understand, if you're twenty one
years old, I understand it's really hard to turn down
one hundred and thirty million. I also understand that he'll
be a free agent to get at age twenty nine,
and he'll have a chance to get that seven hundred
(01:26):
and eight hundred million dollar deal by then. I get that.
I get the thinking behind it, but not when there's
that much money on the table. The last two years
of this deal alone, he left at least one hundred
million on the table, one hundred million, which is almost
exactly what he's signing for a one thirty. So, you know,
kudos to Craig Breslo and to John Henry and theo
(01:49):
Epstein and Tom Warner and everyone else that was able
to do this, because it's going to really help you
down the road. I love that Alexanthopolis did it with Akunya.
I love it from the club side. A boy, can
you imagine what Scott Boris is thinking right now? My goodness,
scud Bars doesn't have him.
Speaker 3 (02:07):
Skud Bars doesn't have him. Jim, So, what was your
job before you became a before Well you would tell
but that's a different story. But there's there's a long
list of guys that didn't sign that extension with Boris
and didn't make the money either, so you can go
both ways. Here's my question for a Jim. Since you
have the sport coat over the hoodie, which is an
informal formal look, which I kind of dig. I'm not
(02:28):
gonna lie because I'm jealous. But before you were a
TV star in a radio star, what was your job
in Major League Baseball?
Speaker 2 (02:35):
Well, I was a cenior vice president general manager of
Major League Baseball.
Speaker 3 (02:40):
So if you would have gone to a player that
you weres on your team and said, I can lock
this guy up and take money.
Speaker 4 (02:46):
From him that he might might earn down the road, would.
Speaker 3 (02:50):
You be happy with that or would you say, no, no, Roman,
don't sign this because I'm the GM and I just
watch the best for you.
Speaker 2 (02:58):
Aj you know the answer. I was so happy.
Speaker 4 (03:03):
On the table.
Speaker 2 (03:04):
Of course, I would have liked to have signed Anthony
for ninety million instead of one hundred and thirty. And
I would have tried everything to do that because that
was the hat or the sports jacket I was wearing
at the time. Yeah, it's the job. I get it.
At the same time, you know, I like what Atlanta
did with Acuna on the club side, I didn't like
what it does for Acunya. I get it. I mean
(03:26):
now I'm in a neutral spot right now. I'll just
tell you the way it is. And Anthony left too
much money on the table he did. I'm happy for
the Red Sox. This was a huge This is the
best move Craig Breslo has made since he got the job,
to be honest.
Speaker 1 (03:39):
And the Red Sox in general have been locking up
some of their youngsters. I mean, this is the guy
that they're most excited about from a prospect perspective, no doubt,
and now you're seeing it in the big leagues. I'm
going to take a different turn on this one with
JB because you're neutral now and you know everything about
obviously how these deals get done because you did it
for a long period of time. Can you put your
agency hat on and tell me what you would say
(04:01):
to Roman Anthony to try and prevent him from taking
on a deal like this, because the agent's job is
to communicate any offer that's on the table, And for
the Red Sox they're probably like, okay, Corbyn, Kyle, that
was one eleven. We got to blow pass that let's
get to one thirty. What's the line where we tell
a twenty one year old one hundred and thirty million
dollars and he takes it. It's it's tough for a
twenty one year old to turn down that kind of money,
(04:23):
even if he can make hundreds of millions more.
Speaker 2 (04:26):
Yeah, I think I would show him the algorithm and
the amount of position star young position players that got
injured and career ended, which is a very very small number.
The odds are very very thin. And then I would
show him how much money he'll make through the salary
arbitration process, right, and a contract like this, he's going
to be at the top end of the three class,
(04:48):
the four class, the five class. But then I would
show him what he's giving up right in years seven
and eight in this deal, I would show him what
Guerrero just signed for. I would show him that Guerrero
next year will make forty million and ron Lkun is
going to make seventeen. That's just a fact. And they're
(05:09):
both equal talent. They should both be paid very similarly,
and they're not, so I would I would go through
that process, and then I would remind him that, you know,
Soto just got seven hundred and sixty five in the
open market. And then I would show him that Guerrero
got five hundred million on the open market, and I
would tell him that you're going to profile better than Guerrero.
(05:32):
I can't put you with Sodo yet. I think you
have the potential of being Soda or better. But I'll
put you between the two. And so I'm gonna show
you that sure you're getting one hundred and thirty million,
but you're leading at least one hundred million years seven
and eight. And if you want to do this, I
get it. But what is the risk if you go
through the system? Soto turned down four hundred and fifty
(05:53):
million from the Washington Nationals, turned it down, They traded him. Okay,
what did he end up with? So I just think
for a position player, in particular, an outfielder, when we
look at the last thirty years, the odds of him
having an Albert Bell, you know, hip injury the end
of career is very small. And you know, I would
(06:14):
tell him, hey, let's try to do a six year
deal without giving up free agency. I'm more than happy
to do that, but let's not give up those free
agent years, or if we give them up, we gotta
get forty to fifty million a year, because Guerrero's forty
is gonna be fifty by the time he gets there, right,
I don't want to give that up. I can't, and
so that'll be my pitch to him at the end
(06:36):
of the day and then we'll see what the Red
Sox say. But you know, I really have a problem
year seven and eight. I'm not giving it up. If
I'm the agent representing a superstar player like Roman Anthony.
There's other players I would do it with, but not
a player of this stature. FT fan.
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Speaker 3 (07:52):
Last thing on this before you let you go. Does
the impending labor strife possibility affect this in anyway? Because
the owners keep saying we want a salary cap, right,
the players keep saying we're not gonna get a salary
cap now. If they're somehow there becomes something in the middle,
whether it's a harder cap that what we technically have now, players'
(08:13):
earnings might not be unlimited like they were with Sodo
and Guerrero. Do you think you look at it from
that standpoint and say, well, if this happens, we might
not be able to get to five hundred plus million.
Speaker 2 (08:25):
Yeah, No, I definitely don't look at it that way.
And I respect the players' union and the people that
are involved. They're not gonna allow a system that's gonna
stop the star players from getting paid. They're not gonna
allow what has happened with the draft happened, and I
can't imagine with a strong player leadership that's there, I
can't imagine them allowing a system. Look, we have a
(08:48):
parody issue in this game that has to be fixed.
We need the smaller markets to be able to spend
more money to be more competitive. I get it, but
you can't. The players are not gonna allow. The union
is not gonna allow all all of a sudden, the
players not make what they deserve and get paid. I mean,
remember the percentage that players get is a lot less
(09:09):
than it was seven years ago and ten years ago.
They're not even getting their their fifty percent share or
more whatever you want to argue they deserve. So I just,
you know, again, I don't think it's a factor. Aj,
I understand where you're coming from. I just don't have
fear of those kind of things. Every time we have
a labor you know, disagreement or it's coming up everyone's
(09:30):
going to talk about work stoppages. You know, since Rob
Manford's been there, there hasn't been any work stoppage. And
those of us that lived through ninety four ninety five,
we're not doing that again. They're not gonna do it again.
They can talk about it. You know. It's just like
in the NFL with Micah Parson saying he wants to trade.
He doesn't want to trade, he wants his contract. He
wants to be the highest paid non quarterback in football,
and all this dialogue. It happens. The Bryce Harper rob
(09:54):
Banford thing. That's just negotiations. We're gonna have a deal
that works. Clubs aren't going to get what they want.
Players are gonna hopefully work hard to get the minimum
up and hopefully work hard to get the smaller markets
to be more competitive, and maybe work a little bit
harder on revenue sharing. And maybe we we you know,
toughen the soft cap a little bit, but not to
(10:14):
the extent where it's gonna affect star players from making
the money they deserve. My opinion, I got.
Speaker 6 (10:21):
A question for you. We're not letting you go just yet.
You can let your agent hack go off, but have
you put your GM hat back on.
Speaker 2 (10:27):
All right?
Speaker 6 (10:27):
If you're if you're Jed Hoyer, are you dealing with
the Nats anymore? Do you just get a sense of
this kind of bad faith with the Soroka dealer? What
is your take on all this?
Speaker 2 (10:35):
All right? So my take is clear and concise on this. Okay,
I go by the rulebook. It's up to the asany
club to do their homework on the medicals. It's their fault.
That's not the club. What the clubs do, and this
is this is and look, I got under similar criticism
when I traded Gary Macjeski to the Cincinnati Reds back
(10:57):
in the day, and people accuse me because he got
over there and he had issues. This is what I do.
Let the doctors talk to each other, share all the
medical information, let the other side exactly know what's going
on with every single player, and then it's up to
the team trading for the player to make that call. Now,
anyone that's watched Soroka's career knows his shoulder issues. I've
(11:17):
never gone away. Anyone that watched his last few starts
are the velocity has gone down. He didn't look right,
and the Cubs decided to do it. Anyway, that's on
Jed Hoyer. That was a risk he took, which was
you know, he took it, okay, whatever I mean. I
thought it was kind of I thought they needed to
go bigger, but they Jed got the contract before the deadline,
(11:39):
which okay, I got security. I don't want to trade
all my kids now. I would have waited if I
was an owner and signed Jed after the trade deadline,
because I want you to go for it. I want
you to make a bigger move than Mike Soroka, please.
So anyway, it's all on Jed, though, one hundred percent
on Jed, and he's owning it and he needs to fair.
Speaker 3 (11:57):
Enough, Jim, how many times did you trade for or
pick up a guy that you thought was underperforming? And
I'm gonna use Andrew Vaughan as an example, like how
much does a change of scenery really do for a player?
And to front offices look at that and say, man,
if we could just get this guy out of wherever
they're at and put him in a more positive culture
(12:18):
with a winning culture, that they actually performed Because since
Andrew Vaughn's been with the Brewers, he's been the MVP
of baseball.
Speaker 2 (12:24):
Yeah, he has been. That's a great, great point. So
we spend a lot of time in front offices concentrating
on players that we feel are underperforming with other teams,
and we get with the evaluators, the scouts, the development people,
the analytic people, and you get everybody together to say,
how do you fix this guy? If we trade it
(12:46):
for this guy, can we fix it? You know? And
the other thing is complicated. You know, we're not talking
about players. We're talking about human beings. Right, Is a
human being going to do better with a change of scenery?
Do we think if he came into our environment he
would be able to go to the next level? And
then vice versa. You have to be concerned, you know,
Jake Bird goes from the last place Rockies to the Yankees.
Pitching for a last place team is a lot difer
(13:08):
than pitching in New York City for the New York Yankees.
The pressure is different, the vibe is different, the lifestyle
is different, you know, And you got to calculate that
when Kacuci was traded Toronto to Houston, Dana Brown, the
GM of the Astros, and his data room, they knew
exactly what they wanted to do to Kacuci, and they
thought they could fix him. They did. He went over
there last year after the deadline and was like five
(13:29):
and one with like a two era. They made quick
adjustments with his repertoire, his pitch sequencing, and immediately paid dividends.
We used to get guys and say, hey, if we
changed the grip, or if we do this with his delivery,
if we put him on the other side of the rubber,
I think we can do this. Or you know, there's
also the guys in the middle. Like I remember when
I brought in Benito Santiago and Tony Fernandez. I didn't
(13:52):
know how that was. It was in ninety five. I
didn't know that was going to fit in the clubhouse.
So you know, I went to Barry Larkin, who was
one of the team leaders, and Lenny Harris, and I said,
you guys, think about these two guys because baseball wise,
they fit right sitting up there in the GM suite.
Fernandez can be goal glove third base right if I
put him there. Santiago upgrades are catching, but I'm not
(14:13):
sure how it's gonna fit in the room. What do
you guys think, will they fit in the room, and
if they don't, can we handle it? And when they
bought in, then okay, I'll go forward and make those moves.
So it's complicated because we're talking about human element and
then we're talking about how can I fix a guy?
And then sometimes you got to be concerned. I remember
when I worked for the Yankees, there was always the
(14:35):
big issue. Loop Panela and Gen Michael kept pounding with me.
You know, you gotta be careful because there's not a
lot of guys that can handle New York. And you've
got to really study the player because you can have
a pitcher that's pitching great for the Angels or Padres,
but you bring them over to New York and they
can't handle it. So you have to really study it
both ways to see. But change the scenery can certainly help.
(14:57):
It can also backfire.
Speaker 1 (14:59):
Yeah, thanks are dealing with a little bit of that
right now with a reliever or two, which is a
whole other topic. But JB, I want to ask you
about the trade deadline. We see the grades, we see
the super libs, the whole deal, the trade deadline passed.
This is what I love. The few days after the
trade deadline and it's still happening, right. There's still articles
this morning about it, the conversations that went down, the
(15:19):
what ifs, right, stuff that didn't happen, or players blocking deal.
So I'll give you dealer's choice on this one from
Ken Rosenthal reporting about how the Padres landed Mason Miller
and some of the other teams, you know, turning down
Miller because they didn't want to give up some of
those top prospects, right, Phillies, I think Mets were on
that list, et cetera. Byron Buxton saying no to potentially
(15:40):
being moved because he wants some to stay with Minnesota
or any others that you saw those what ifs? Which
one stood out to you?
Speaker 2 (15:47):
Yeah? I mean I think the Mason Miller deal I
loved a lot, only just as a former GM, just
understanding the people that made the deal. Right. Aj Preller
sitting there trying to win now, never been afraid to trade,
trade Turner or James Wood or C. J. Abrams, Rickenzie Gore,
never afraid. Has built a core that isn't going away,
and he's got a window to win a World Series
(16:09):
and there's not a prospect he won't trade, and it
was fascinating to me because what did he do. He
traded him to the athletics where, although he's not in
the limelight anymore, behind the scenes, one of the owners
named Billy Bean, had a long record. Remember the Addison
Russell trade for Jeff Samargia, Like he did the exact
same thing. That's why I text Billy Bean afterwards to
(16:32):
tell him, Yeah, you're fraid of Prince all over this one, Billy.
But to me, that was such such a great deal
because you know, AJ can call him and say, you know, look,
I traded Trade Turner, I traded James Wood, I traded
for Fernando Tatis Junior. I'm going to do the same
thing for you. I'm going to give you an all
star shortstop. He's a teenager and he'll be ready for Vegas.
(16:54):
But I need to win now and I need Mason Miller,
so I need your best asset. But I'll give you
my best future asset and for you three years from now,
you're gonna be really happy because everyone's gonna be asking me,
how could you trade James Wood and Devrees? But what
he's trying to do is win a championship. That's what
AJ's trying to do right now, I'd have made that
(17:14):
deal too. Now if I'm the Athletics, i'd have made
the trade, right. I mean, you got a chance to
get your future face of the franchise. Of course you're
gonna make that trade. So that was the most intriguing,
And the one on Buxton was kind of funny because
I remember when he was a young kid over in
spring training. I went over to Fort Myers and was
talking to him. He had the Minnesota Twins' logo tattooed
(17:37):
on his back, and I said, Byron, how do you
know you're going to spend your curer in Minnesota? You
know this game, you know this turnover. He said, no,
I'm gonna spend my career here. I said, you don't
know that. You could be a free agent. You could
get traded Byron. Buxton has the tattoo, and he honestly's
gonna finish his whole career. He is. He got the
no trade and he literally, no matter how bad they get,
(17:57):
he wants to stay there. So I got a big
out of so many teams trying to trade for him
and him just saying, no, I'm not going anywhere. So
if you give up someone and no trade. You gotta
live up.
Speaker 6 (18:08):
To it, all right.
Speaker 3 (18:10):
I got so many things off the answer you just
gave one. You gotta call him Preller because AJ is
on this show. Okay, the real one. Okay, Preler and
Hinch Okay, Jim. So if you're gonna keep coming on here,
this is AJ. They're Preler and Hinch.
Speaker 2 (18:22):
All right, Okay, I'll call him. I'm gonna call him
King Preller. Then I got it.
Speaker 4 (18:26):
That's fine. Do you call him whatever you want as
long as it's not AJ. Okay. And then, second of all,
Eric Milton.
Speaker 3 (18:31):
Eric Milton once had a Yankees tattoo on his left shoulder,
and then he got traded to the Twins and he's like,
now what do I do?
Speaker 4 (18:36):
And we're like, yeah, he shouldn't have probably caught that tattoo,
So yeah.
Speaker 3 (18:39):
I fier bucks and has the no trade clause. Milton
got it before and then he got traded to the Twins.
Speaker 4 (18:44):
All right, But then.
Speaker 3 (18:46):
For real, I just I just want to know. This
is it last question for me? Will the Yankees make
the playoffs this year? With the way they're currently constructed because.
Speaker 4 (18:54):
They can't make any more moves?
Speaker 2 (18:55):
Will they make the playoffs, I'm gonna go no, and
I'm gonna go no because I'm gonna go no just
because I really love the al Wes three teams right now.
I just do. I mean, I think what Seattle did
at the deadline, I think they can get to the
World Series now. And I still all I've been on
Texas's bandwagon. I thought they would hit more with their
(19:16):
pitching has been really good. And Houston's not going away.
So if I put those three teams there, Detroit and
then Boston and Toronto may finish ahead of the New
York Yankees. So you know, I don't know. There's just
the vibe in New York's not great. They're not playing well.
You know, it's not a great defensive team. And I'm
worried about Aaron Judge. I've been clear about that because
(19:38):
the way the Yankees announced his injury, they said there
was no acute injury to the older collaterallignment. Then they
said there's a PRP injection. So that means there's a
tear in the older collateralligment. That's what it means. It
may be a slight tear, but there's a tear. It's
intact is what they said, right, and acute injury and
it's intact all that can be true. But this is
(19:59):
the same as Garrett Cole. So there's a tear. That's
why you don't shoot the PRP in there. If you're
not trying to strengthen the liga then and you're not
trying to strengthen the ligaments if it's completely strong. And
I just worry about that, you know, because if you
lose air and judge, this team can't win if their
MVP isn't in that lineup, And I'm worried about the bullpen,
(20:19):
you know, and I'm worried about Vulpi. I don't understand
the gold Glover why he's struggling like he is. So yeah,
I wouldn't be surprised if they miss out.
Speaker 1 (20:27):
Yeah, this is an avalanche of issues and it's surprising,
but here we are, and there are a few teams
coming after him. JB. Great stuff. This was a good
little catch up post deadline. Appreciate the time and we'll
catch you soon.
Speaker 2 (20:40):
Thanks guys, appreciate it. Thanks Jan.
Speaker 6 (20:44):
Krats.
Speaker 1 (20:44):
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Make sure to use our URL so they know we
sent you. Join Built dot com slash foul. Go for it. Hey, well,
we've got our little middle infielder with us KIT. What
are your thoughts on what Anthony Volpi is going through?
I mean, it's a gold gloves shortstop who has had
significant throwing issues that seem mental heat does not seem
(21:55):
like he has his confidence defensively.
Speaker 6 (21:58):
Yeah, I mean we've seen him be a fantastic defender,
so we know it's in there. I think he just
kind of needs to make up his mind. Hey, I'm
going to attack everything. I think that takes the kind
of guesswork out of it. I think when you're you're
indecisive or indifferent on what to do in the ball
or how much time to take, just say, hey, listen,
I'm going to attack every single thing and attack all
(22:19):
these throws. So my mind's made up on how I'm
going to approach the ball, how I'm going to approach
his throw. There's no guesswork in it, there's no second guessing,
And I think it just kind of simplifies things because
I think right now is his wheels are turning a
little bit too much because it's an AJ can attest
to this too. Can't play trying not to screw up.
You have to attack the game. You have to play
(22:40):
to make the plays. You can't play like when you're
when you swing to like just not strike out. It's
not your normal swing, So you're going to strike out.
When you try not to throw an air, you're gonna like, oh,
I gotta get it there. You're gonna drop the armslot
and then here goes to throw into the stand. So
it's like you just have to attack the game and
like it'll start to come back to you real fast then,
I think. But he he just looks like those wheels
(23:00):
are turning real fast right now.
Speaker 1 (23:03):
What if Byron Buxton ended up on the New York
Mets or the Atlanta Braves. I'm not just saying this
out of the blue. Dan Hayes has done great work.
I think he's working with Ken Rosenthal behind the scenes
on this as well, both of them writing for The Athletic.
This one from Hayes. Byron Buxton told inquiring teams no,
and then he put some other notes in that article
as well. But let's focus on Byron Buxton a couple
(23:25):
quotes here to start. So first off, he said, where
I came from, your word means everything. My track record
of how I'm still here and how I got here
is different. You've got to have a lot of people
behind you, not just the family, but everybody Minnesota did that.
That's home. He really started his campaign for him staying
in Minneapolis at the All Star Game. He received a
number of questions about if he could be on the
(23:46):
trade block, and he's like, I could not because I
have a no trade class, and I say no. So
they didn't even entertain anything except for the phone calls
that came through to Byron Buxton's agency. I'm saying the
Twins didn't entertain anything. Byron bucks agency got a number
of calls from teams who clearly were interested, and he
told them the same thing, don't waste your time. He's
(24:06):
not going to wave the no trade clause. Now here
comes the social media storm.
Speaker 2 (24:11):
Kip.
Speaker 1 (24:11):
You do have fans that say the Twins just sold
half their team away. They're going to be sold. There
are some good pieces there, but why does he want
to stay if he has an opportunity to join a
contender and not the Braves. The Braves aren't good this year.
He's from Georgia. There were some connections there, but some
other teams were interested as well. There were a number
of teams that called. But for example, fans are like,
why wouldn't Buckston want to join the Mets when they're
(24:32):
in a playoff race and the Twins are not.
Speaker 6 (24:36):
I yeah, I can appreciate his loyalty. I can appreciate
a man of his word. I can appreciate that he
wants to finish what he started or build there because
they gave him the chance. All that stuff. That's great stuff,
and I know the front office appreciates that and loves that.
But you look around that clubhouse, almost everyone's gone. Your
(24:58):
team is, your ownership is kind of not gone for
it when you have had good teams recently, so they
aren't really about winning as much as you'd like him
to be. If you just said he's from Georgia. Let's
say Atlanta was good this year. Every one in your
starting lineup is pretty much gone. Atlanta is great this year,
let's say hypothetically, and they're trying to trade for you
so you can go home play for a hometown team
(25:21):
in a playoff race, and you're still gonna hold strong
of that. No, I don't get it. I guess I'd
like to think there are circumstances that should happen where
an answer should change. You would think as a player,
you would want to experience that experience. The playoff runs,
the deep playoff runs, because that's what we're all trying
to do anyways. So I don't know. I appreciate the loyalty,
(25:45):
but I also don't understand why staying there when they're
rebuilding it makes sense just or that doesn't make sense
to me, I guess.
Speaker 3 (25:57):
I mean Jim Boden said it. He has a touch
to the Twins logo on his back. He's not going anywhere,
and it's his right.
Speaker 4 (26:03):
So listen.
Speaker 3 (26:04):
As much as I don't know if I could be
able to be as strong as Byron Bucks and say
I'm staying with the Twins, there is something cool about
being with one team, your whole career in one organization.
So I can't fault a guy. Listen, he got the
no trade clause and he wants to stick by it.
I mean, if you're a Twins fan, you have to
respect that. If you're a person in general, you have
to respect that. So could he move on to a
(26:25):
different place. He could, but he's comfortable. His family's comfortable there.
He might have a place in Four Myers, he might
have a place in Minnesota. He goes from four Myers
to Minnesota, his wife and his kids and his family
is comfortable with that. So I can't fault a guy
for that. As much as people to say, oh, he
doesn't want to win. Oh he doesn't want this, he
doesn't want that, you know what, it's his choice.
Speaker 4 (26:45):
I'm sure there's people out there.
Speaker 3 (26:46):
In regular world that if that work at a company
and another company comes and offers him a little bit
something better, and they're like, you know what, I'm gonna
stick with the company I'm with because I'm comfortable. And
I have to give that guy credit, because listen, if
I could have played for one team my whole career,
would have loved to have done it. But you know what,
I wasn't that fortunate. If you're fortunate enough to do it,
good for you. Byron Buxton.
Speaker 1 (27:05):
And clearly he likes the way they're treating him too, guys.
I mean he's happy with you know, the front office
is usually you know, I mean talked about very highly right,
Derek Fabian company over there in Minnesota, Thad Levin who
was there for a while. He was just on our
show the other day, known as one of the nicer
guys in the sport. So it's not like he's in
one of those disaster scenarios and we all know they exist.
Speaker 6 (27:24):
No, I'm saying I appreciate, I I can appreciate absolutely
everything that he's doing insane. I I do love it,
and he's earned the right to make that decision for himself.
I think he needs to get is it hobby hobby
bias that has the MLB logo tattoo on the back
of his neck? Ye, the way he's covered for any
team that he goes to. So he just gets the
MLB logo.
Speaker 1 (27:44):
Yeah, unless you end up playing in a different league.
Right if you're in the Mexican League and NPV and.
Speaker 6 (27:48):
Run out, Yeah, run out of ideas.
Speaker 4 (27:50):
Did you play with anybody?
Speaker 3 (27:52):
Because I played with some guys in the minor leagues
that got that tattoo and I was like, what if you.
Speaker 4 (27:56):
Don't make it?
Speaker 3 (27:56):
And they're like, oh Megan, they didn't make it, And
I'm like, uh, do you cover that thing with so molts?
Speaker 6 (28:01):
He had it before he was up with the big leagues.
But I think he was on his way.
Speaker 3 (28:04):
Yeah, he was a first rounder. I think he was
gonna be okay. This guy was like not, these guys.
Speaker 1 (28:09):
Are not rounds.
Speaker 4 (28:11):
They were not.
Speaker 3 (28:11):
There's a guy headed on his arm. There was a
guy who they had on his neck. I was like,
what if you don't make it?
Speaker 1 (28:16):
It's good motivation because it's like I have to make it.
Speaker 6 (28:18):
I have to. Yeah, I got the tacks like the team.
Speaker 4 (28:22):
It's like the team is like, oh, he has a tattoo,
we need to send him to the big leagues.
Speaker 6 (28:26):
What about this guy he's tatted up with the love
by the.
Speaker 1 (28:30):
Way, these two players, this guy hasn't tack.
Speaker 4 (28:35):
By the way.
Speaker 3 (28:35):
I just want to say this for the record. So
Jim Boden told the story of Byron Bucks and Eric
Milton had New York Yankee logo on his left arm.
I played with a guy I think his name was
Greg Hanson. Hanson, I think that was right. And he
had every he played for like nine teams so down
his leg. It started with the first team, and so
he had to keep getting the tattoos all the way
down his legs. So he ended up playing for like
(28:56):
eight or nine teams, so he.
Speaker 6 (28:57):
Had them all all the way done his leg.
Speaker 3 (29:03):
He'll get a tattoo if you're not one hundred percent sure, guys, Okay,
just saying, especially of a team in baseball, because guess
what they can do.
Speaker 4 (29:09):
They can get rid of your really fastly. You have
one kip.
Speaker 6 (29:13):
No, no, I do not have a team logo. There
you go, Hey, one more questions and they can get
rid of you real fast.
Speaker 1 (29:20):
Right, one more question on this, because there's a guy
who's really is a legend in our sport, is going
to be a Hall of Famer, but the back half
of his career has not played out the way he's
wanted it to. What do you think about the Mike
Trout example, for Byron Buckston, who's already cracked open his
early thirties here and you just don't get too many
cracks at a World Series title. Does any of that
(29:41):
factor in here? Or you just have to have that
that goal that you want to win with the team
that you're with and you've got the new trade cause
you've got to overcome you know what the desire is
from outside?
Speaker 2 (29:52):
Right.
Speaker 1 (29:52):
I'm sure Trout's thought about it too. It's been talked
about sometimes in the offseason. It doesn't sound like he's
ever pushed the team though, So I wonder if that's
in Byron's headed off because you just don't know, right,
I mean, and he's had problems staying on the field.
It's like, you're thriving this year. There's teams that want you,
that can tend you want to say no to Atlanta,
go for it, they're not in the playoffs this year,
but you want to say no to the three or
four other teams that were interested.
Speaker 6 (30:16):
It's I'm interested to see when It's like a player
can always tell kind of when they're nearing the end.
So if when the two of them maybe have like
two years left, three years left, maybe uh, and then
there's just no light at the end of the tunnel
for the organization, I'm wondering if you'll start to see
maybe he starts more a trout, just to give it
(30:38):
a give it a chance.
Speaker 1 (30:40):
Okay, okay, But also, like Aj.
Speaker 6 (30:43):
Said that you're you're at you're on the you're at
the home finish of playing your whole career for one team,
which is really cool.
Speaker 1 (30:49):
Yeah, it's just the ring desire, right, I mean, everybody
wants every Scott.
Speaker 3 (30:55):
Not everybody wins a ring. Kip didn't win a ring.
I was fortunate enough to win one, right, not everybody
wins one. But listen, Joe Mallard didn't win one. He's
in the Hall of Fame because he stayed with one
team his whole career, right, I.
Speaker 4 (31:06):
Mean, it's kind of cool. Right to know this, Mike
Trout's probably gonna stay with the Angels entire career. Pretty cool.
Speaker 1 (31:12):
Basic Matt though, is that if you're on a non
contender right now and they sold out their team away
and then they're going through an ownership change and they
might be good eventually, right Like, he's got a shot
at winning with this new group, But percentage chance, I mean,
you've got a better chance joining a contender now and
rolling that way. It's just it is what it is.
But it's the choice that he made. That's all just
presenting both sides. I actually kind of been in the
(31:34):
middle on this one because I would be more critical
if I felt like the player was on like an
absolute disaster scenario team and he only had a couple
of years left. Fyron Buxton should have, you know, hopefully
five or six years left in his career, and the
Twins will definitely be able to bounce back from where
they are. They were in the playoffs two years ago
and they're going to have a new owners, So I'm
okay with it. Davey Andrews joining us right now from
(31:55):
Fangrafts for the first time on FT. Daved, great to
have you on the show here and perfect timing because
past the trade deadline and now people want to know
playoff percentage chances for their ball club. So how you doing.
Speaker 7 (32:06):
I'm good, Thank you for having me. It's fun to
be on. I see you guys background and I do
not have the same house as major leaguers as what
I'm doing.
Speaker 1 (32:15):
Well, I don't either. I'm in a little apartment. But
you can fake it till you make it all day. Okay, Davey,
tell me about playoff percentages that you wrote about in fangrafts,
how they vary, what goes into them, and what has
stood out to you at the recent look at who
could you know, crack the playoffs that could surprise us
or who could miss out that could surprise us?
Speaker 7 (32:35):
Right, Well, so I would start first, which is how
they work. I mean, the biggest thing is they take
your record, and then they look at your strength of
schedule for the rest of the season, and then they
look at your projections. So we're talking about how good
the projections think your team is, and so based on
all of that, they spit out a number the percentage
chance that you make the playoffs. So like the Dodgers
(32:55):
are at the top with ninety nine point six percent
chance because they're in first Iceland, because they're the Dodgers
with a really good team, and then there are plenty
of teams at the bottom with zero. So the reason
I wrote about it yesterday is that I was looking
at the numbers and I realized that this is kind
of the most stratified that the numbers have been in
(33:15):
a long time. Like in the National League, the Reds
have a thirteen point six percent chance of making the playoffs,
and then above them today is the Mets at eighty
nine point one percent, So they basically the numbers think
the National League is one hundred percent settled right now.
Obviously I'm doing some rounding here, but but I was
looking at it. I was like, Man, the numbers say
this is the most boring postseasons or stretch run since
(33:37):
we started keeping track of them.
Speaker 1 (33:40):
Wow, that's crazy. So I will bring up what some
will say, including Reds fans, remember last year the Detroit Tigers,
what was their percentage chance of making the playoffs at
this point.
Speaker 7 (33:53):
Zero point two percent? And you can buy a T
shirt with the Fangrafts graph that goes down, down, down,
down down, all the way up at the very end.
And you could also look at the twenty nineteen Indians
Guardians to bring it close to home here, I'm sorry
that who a week from this point in the season,
we're at ninety six percent above ninety six percent and
(34:13):
didn't make it. So it happens all the time, you know.
I think when when you hear a number like this
and you hear it's like a ninety percent chance, you think, well,
that means it's a done deal. But what it means
is one out of ten times the opposite thing is
going to happen.
Speaker 4 (34:26):
Whoa, whoa, whoa? Was Kip on that team? Kip? Were
you on that twenty nineteen choke job team?
Speaker 6 (34:31):
What I thought we did make the playoffs?
Speaker 7 (34:37):
All right, Well then I feel less bad bringing it up.
Speaker 4 (34:40):
Okay, all right, well that's amazing.
Speaker 3 (34:44):
Well so then this is just a percent like everything
has to go right or wrong for a team to
make the playoffs.
Speaker 4 (34:50):
Because if you.
Speaker 3 (34:51):
Look at it right now, the Brewers are what ninety
nine point one percent, They have a nice small lead
on the Cubs. The Cubs are ninety six percent. But
like kind of what Scott said, the Reds team is
looking at like, hey, we're hot right now, We're playing
really well. We made some nice acquisitions. This is more
like if something crazy doesn't happen, right, this is just
more of like textbook things just continue as they've gone
(35:14):
for the first four and a half months.
Speaker 7 (35:16):
Right, So you can in my article, I kind of
broke down the pros and the cons for the Reds
and like you're saying, there's a lot of pros here,
like they're gonna get Hunter green back, and they've got
Ellie day La Cruz who looks like he can just
carry a team, and if the additions they made at
the deadline work out, if Cabrian Hayes looks out at
the short fence in the Cincinnati and things, oh maybe
I should start lifting the ball a little to hit
(35:38):
it over like all of a sudden they're going to
start rolling. And they could absolutely do it. But they
also have I think the second toughest schedule the rest
of the way, and they've had an easy schedule to
this point. So some of the numbers that you're looking
at may be a little rosier than the real picture says,
and just the projections, like I mean, like what the
(35:59):
Phillies and did a lot, and the Padres a lot,
and so all of a sudden, these other teams added
to and added more, and so it's just it's a
tough road. So it's they're trying to factor in everything.
Obviously baseball is going to baseball. There's no way to
predict everything. But this year did stand out just because
the numbers are so stratified.
Speaker 4 (36:20):
Davy, who's your team?
Speaker 7 (36:23):
I mean, I'm a national skuy first and foremost, so
they've been at zero for a long time.
Speaker 3 (36:28):
Now that's fine. I mean, I'm a white sex guy.
They were at zero before the year started, so I
get it.
Speaker 4 (36:32):
I get it.
Speaker 3 (36:33):
But they did win a World Series in twenty nineteen.
My question is the Yankees. Where were the Yankees at
six weeks ago? And now were they at? Because the
American League has kind of shifted, right, the Yankees were
dominating and were like, oh, Yankees are close to ninety
percent whatever they were, and now what's their number compared
to with like the Mariners, the Rangers, all these teams
that have kind of jumped in front of them.
Speaker 7 (36:53):
Right, I would say the Yankees are one of those
teams who have seemed to defy gravity. Right now, they're
at seventy eight point eight, which is is down a
little bit. You know, they have been really struggling. But
the numbers, the projections, are a big part of this,
where they're looking at individual players and expecting them to contribute.
And so if Aaron Judge comes back healthy, then all
of a sudden that lineup is terrifying. If he doesn't,
(37:15):
the projections can't really tell you that. So if Aaron
Judge isn't there and hitting like Aaron Judge, then like,
throw this number in the garbage. Basically, you know, all
of this stuff depends on health and luck and short
sample sizes, all things that can go either way at
the drop of a hat. So so far, the numbers
have really liked the Yankees. But when we're watching it
(37:35):
with our eyes, it looks a lot scarier.
Speaker 1 (37:39):
So let's transition over to the al What are you
seeing from the playoff projection numbers there?
Speaker 7 (37:46):
Well, so, I mean the Tigers still are in first.
The Tigers look genuinely scary, and you know, I think
once you get into the playoffs they look even more scary.
You know, with the way they rolled in the postseason
last year where just Scoogle was unhittable, and they kind
of scraped enough together. They're bullpen isn't looking quite as good,
but I mean they're at ninety eight percent right now.
(38:07):
They've pretty much got the central locked up, and then
below them, it's a little bit of a mix. You know,
the Ale East is going to be a real battle
regardless of who ends up making the playoffs and doesn't.
I think the Al East will be really fun. The
Red Sox are on a run right now, the Blue
Jays have been on a run, and the Yankees have
the pieces where if they all put it together, those
(38:29):
could be three really good teams down the stretch and
it should be really fun.
Speaker 1 (38:34):
Cap. We got to ask about your boys, because no
one's talking about them, but they're actually only, what is it,
a game and a half away from a playoff spot
right now. I don't know if the projections love them, but.
Speaker 2 (38:46):
To present, it never loves them.
Speaker 6 (38:47):
It never loves them because it's not like there's never
been an besides Jose, there's never been huge home run
hitters that can really like switch it that the statistical side,
the analytical side loves to like kind of go off that.
Speaker 7 (38:59):
And we shouldn't know that the projections tend to regress
heavily on defense, which means when you're a good defensive club,
they don't trust you as much because they sort of
expect defense to balance out, and so for a team
like the Guardians who have some premium defenders like that
is a reason to look at the numbers with a
little more suspicion and a little more hope.
Speaker 6 (39:20):
I appreciate you saying a nice thing about the Guardians there.
Speaker 7 (39:23):
I love the Guardians. I'd end up writing about them
all the time just because they always have fun people.
Speaker 6 (39:30):
I think. I'm trying to think of aj would you
actually you might be the wrong person answer as this question,
but because okay, because I already know your answer, I think,
would you ever look at something like this and give
it any stock and if you were a player playing?
Speaker 4 (39:44):
No? Absolutely not.
Speaker 3 (39:47):
Actually no, actually that's all right, because I would be like, oh,
we're only projected to win seventy two games through them.
I'm gonna try and win one hundred games and be like, yeah,
fan Grafts, you don't know what you're talking about.
Speaker 6 (39:58):
Fair enough. I like it, though, No every play like, okay, well,
good thing, it's settled in between the White Lions like,
it's fine, we got this then, So I think that's
you're right, that's the best way to use it. Pen
if it's not telling you already end.
Speaker 1 (40:09):
We've heard it brought up as bulletin board material before, Davy.
I'm sure you know and can talk about it.
Speaker 7 (40:14):
More, especially from the Guardians for this very reason that
you know, like they've had a lot of premium defenders
in the past and so the numbers have not trusted
them and they've just gone on some really fun and
probable runs. So yeah, I mean, I think if you're
a player, I can't imagine looking at this for anything
other than, you know, bulletin board material.
Speaker 2 (40:33):
Yeah.
Speaker 6 (40:33):
I don't know if you're talking about me with premium
defenders in the past. Maybe my other guys in the infield,
I thought, But you.
Speaker 7 (40:40):
Have the pop, the projections love pop.
Speaker 2 (40:42):
Thank you.
Speaker 6 (40:43):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (40:43):
Andre Samenez had the glove there recently for Cleveland. Yeah,
he was. He was probably the best defensive second basement
for a year or two there. My question to you,
Davy is where do you think it's wrong?
Speaker 5 (40:55):
Right?
Speaker 1 (40:55):
Where are you looking where either other numbers that you
like tell you you otherwise, or just the eye test
tells you otherwise, And I'll stay on American League because,
like you said, I'm with you. It's gonna be hard
to convince anyone that there's a better top six. And
they've got like this real clean cut top six in
the National League, but it's not quite the case.
Speaker 4 (41:12):
In the AL.
Speaker 1 (41:13):
So how do you see the AL playing out these
next couple months?
Speaker 4 (41:17):
Right?
Speaker 7 (41:17):
I mean the big thing is is the Rangers, Like
right now, they're at forty percent, and so that's a
decent chance, but they'd have to be thrown either, you know,
like the Mariners, Astros, the Red Sox, the Yankees. You know,
there are a lot of teams in the mix here,
and I think the Rangers just look really dangerous right now.
They have so many hitters who could get into shape,
(41:38):
and so many pitchers who could really put together dominant
stretches like you saw Ivaldi last night, just completely shoving.
I think the Rangers could really not only like close strong,
but like look like a team that nobody wants to face.
Speaker 3 (41:52):
Would you want to face Evaldi and de Grom in
the postseason if you had to go one two in
a short series, in a three game series in your
first two starters, you get de Grom and Evaldi that
it sounds like it wouldn't be a lot of fun. David,
I know you're a nats man, so you get the
Strasbourg Ureser comparisons.
Speaker 7 (42:07):
There, right, absolutely? Yeah, I mean I don't think anybody
wants to face the gram ever.
Speaker 3 (42:12):
Yeah, true, especially when he's healthy. All right, So I
have two quick questions for you. When was the last
time the Braves were zero percent? Our producer lady at Claudia,
she's like she's a huge Braves homer, so she's like
crying about the Braves. So when was the last time
the Braves were zero percent?
Speaker 7 (42:26):
Oh my god, I'd have to look it up. I mean,
it's this is such a weird year and and even now,
like you look at that team and I mean, obviously
it's different with the Kuna Goan, but it has been
a while. I would guess it's been five or six years.
Speaker 4 (42:40):
Okay, since I was there in twenty sixteen.
Speaker 3 (42:42):
I get it.
Speaker 6 (42:42):
It's what I was looking because thanks for.
Speaker 4 (42:44):
Rubbing it in. I appreciate it, Thank you, love it.
Speaker 7 (42:47):
I did before I came on at the years you
were there and.
Speaker 4 (42:50):
That, Yeah, I was looking there were zero.
Speaker 3 (42:52):
They were zero from the time we took the field
and spring training, So I get it. No, no big deal.
The gnats were good then, So I'm all right. So
before we let you go, I have to ask you this.
You have your soundboard up there, looks like on your door.
I know you played guitar, right, you play guitar and
some bands. M what's what's cooler playing guitar in front
of a live crowd or writing an article like just
(43:14):
did a million people look at and read and trust
that your numbers are correct?
Speaker 4 (43:19):
Well?
Speaker 7 (43:19):
I think playing I don't know. I'm dell with playing guitar.
Here's why, because I didn't come up with these numbers.
Speaker 2 (43:25):
I am not.
Speaker 7 (43:27):
There are a lot of smart people at Fangrafts, and
I am not part of that club. I can put
the words down, but as far as the math behind
and behind them and explaining all of it, they're much
smarter people than I am. So I gotta go with
the guitar.
Speaker 1 (43:42):
Like he did his homework.
Speaker 4 (43:46):
This was his chance to pump his bands, and he
didn't do it.
Speaker 7 (43:49):
So you guys, you guys have had Petriello on we
play in a band together, So.
Speaker 1 (43:54):
Oh no way, I didn't know that the band. That's
really cool. Okay, what's the band name?
Speaker 7 (44:00):
Where the Subway goes? We got a show next week,
so if anybody is, you know, around in New York,
check us out.
Speaker 1 (44:06):
Okay, well yeah, look them up. Subway Ghost. I love that.
Davey is a is a multi whatever you want to
call multi entertainment threat, dual threat. Very cool, baby, this
was awesome. Thank you for joining us. Really appreciate the
look into those playoff projections, as many people will look
at them like these guys do and use it as
bulletin board material whatever else. So we appreciate the entertainment
(44:29):
and the info from fangrafts all the.
Speaker 7 (44:31):
Time, my pleasure. They are there for people to shout about.
Speaker 1 (44:35):
Yes, exactly right. Criticism welcome, bring it, bring it, Davy,
thank you so much. Appreciate it again.
Speaker 7 (44:42):
All right, thanks, have a good one, guys,
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