Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome to the Friends with Money podcast, brought to you
by Money Magazine, creating financial freedom for Australians since nineteen
ninety nine.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Hello and thanks for joining us for another episode of
Friends with Money, money Magazine's podcast to help you earn, save,
and achieve your financial goals. My name is Tom Watson,
AEC and journalist here at Money Magazine, and as always
it is a pleasure to be with you. Well, we
are only halfway through the year at the stage, but our, boy,
oh boy, what a wild ride investors have had so far.
(00:36):
I don't know about you, dear listeners, but There's been
more than a few days when I've logged into my
investment app only to be confronted with a a big
old red negative sign, and then I've quietly logged out
back to way. A week later, those things will have
totally changed. So there you go. That's twenty twenty five
in a nutshell. Enough about me though, As has become
(00:59):
a bit of a tradition on Friends with Money over
the past couple of years, Today we are going to
undertake our half yearly review. We're going to talk about
some of the causes of the volatility that we've seen
in financial markets so far in twenty twenty five, what
the impact has been on various asset classes and as
much as we can, we'll take a bit of a
(01:20):
look at the forecast ahead. But in this world, who
who knows what's going to happen?
Speaker 3 (01:26):
And very please say that.
Speaker 2 (01:27):
Joining me today to dive into those areas and more
is Jonathan shed Head of Investments Australia at States treat
Investment Management. Jonathan, A very warm welcome to you. It's
a pleasure to have you on Friends with Money, Thank you, Tom,
delighted to be here. It's great to have you on mate.
Before we take a look into I guess some specific
(01:48):
asset classes. I think it would be really useful forever
and if you could set the scene for us a bit,
you know, what are some of the macroeconomic and the
geopolitical factors that have really impact acted market so far
this year and I guess created some of that volatility
that we've all started to become a bit more familiar with.
Speaker 3 (02:08):
Yeah, look, in a word, it's tariffs, and tariffs isn't
the only word, but it's certainly the biggest word in
the first six months. But I think it's worth reflecting
back why tariffs was such a marker in the first
six months, and if you go back over the five
years prior so, starting from COVID through to the end
(02:29):
of last year, you know, we obviously had economic contraction
with COVID, we had a strong rebound in the next year,
and then we had inflation come roaring back, but economic
growth held up despite you know, rapid increases and interest
rates and so on. Economic growth held up. And so
coming into this year, at the start of the year,
(02:49):
if on actual markets were thinking, you know, is inflation
really under control or isn't it? Can interstrates continue coming down?
Is the labor market going to hold up? So markets
were on tent hooks to some extent, and so when
the tariff announcements came, and everyone knew they were coming,
by the way, but the size of those tariffs were
(03:11):
so large that markets got spooked about what was going
to happen to inflation in the US in particular, and
what was going to happen to global growth, And that
was the context for that huge set off we saw
at the beginning of April. Since then, we've had a
lot more certainty. Tariffs has started to fade as that
(03:36):
driving force, and in fact markets are up above where
they were before that announcement in early April. So tariffs
is certainly the biggest I think geopolitical factor in the
first six months. There have been a few others, though
that investors might have missed in all the noise around
what's happening in the US. For example, in Europe, so
(04:00):
Many eased some of their restrictions on government spending, and
we think longer term that's going to be great for
Europe on infrastructure and defense spending and so on. So
that was one a theme that slipped by. AI has
been another strong theme over the last six months, and
(04:20):
that's really played out in a few different areas in
financial markets. The first is in the kind of strategic
rivalry between the US and China, where deep seek and
the fact that maybe other players can start to generate
real value in AI space started to come to the
fore and China has actually performed very strongly this year.
(04:43):
Also the actual profits from companies and technology who are
involved in that revolution, and then finally the impact on
longer term productivity, both for the broader economy and for
corporate profits. So I think that would be the next theme,
and the final I just referred to a bit closer
to home perhaps, is the surprising situation we're in now, Tom,
(05:07):
where Japan is leading the board on inflation and everyone
else's cutting rates, and yet Japan is the one rising.
And that's been another significant geopolitical factor, I think in
the last six months. So that's what that's what I'm
seeing in the first six months of the year. Tom.
Speaker 2 (05:25):
I'm glad you bought some of those other kind of
non tariff factors up there, Jonathan, because, like you said,
I feel like they get lost in the noise so
often that the announcement that you talked about in Germany
being a prime one there. I think I feel like
we could on my sur sard different podcasts to talk
about all this, but we don't have one yet, so
(05:46):
we'll continue on. I think I'd love to take getting
into some specific asset classes now then, and I think
a great place so start would be with equities. Again.
We could probably do another entire podcast on how equities
have performed this year. So broadly speaking, Jonathan, how have
they fared in the first kind of six months of
(06:08):
twenty twenty five.
Speaker 3 (06:09):
Well, it was looking pretty ugly in the first week
of April, but since then equities have rowed back, and
broadly speaking, equities are at higher levels than they were
at the end of March. The UK and Europe have
actually done better than the US in the first six
months of the year. However, looking forward, if you look
(06:33):
at earnings and sales and those key corporate metrics, the
US we think is probably looking a bit stronger going
into the next six to twelve months, and perhaps places
like Europe and Japan. So I think with inequities, while
Europe and the UK have had a pretty good run,
we probably prefer the US. I think over the next
(06:55):
six to twelve months. The US is looking fully valued,
but it's not crazy valuations, and some of the recovery
in the US wasn't just limited to those mags seven,
those very very large stocks, and in fact, more broadly
with in equity markets, you know, we're looking for that
recovery to continue in some of the sectors that have
(07:16):
been a bit neglected, so smaller companies for example, or
within emerging markets and some of those other areas. So
that's broadly what's happened within the equity market over the
first six months of the year. Of course, there's a
lot more happening below the surface.
Speaker 2 (07:32):
Well, maybe I can pick your brands very briefly on
what's kind of happened close to home on the you know,
in Australia. How have Australian markets, I guess performed compared
to the US and the rest of the world has
been so slightly rosier started twenty twenty five, the Australian
market has done okay. I mean, clearly, the Australian market
(07:54):
is closely linked to what's happening in China, and so
Australia is caught in this tension between our largest trading
partner and strategic rivalry with what's happening in the US.
So the Australian market's done okay over the first six
months of the year. I think for Australia and a
few other countries in the Asia Pacific region, the rate
(08:18):
of earnings growth compared to the price you pay is
not something that we're seeing as hugely attractive at the moment.
So Australia a wrong with other countries in the region are
probably not our favored places to go. I think if
you speak to your financial advisor, most financial advisors would
suggest investors do have a core allocation to the Australian
equity market, and at State Street we would certainly support that,
(08:41):
but it's not an area where I think in the
current environment we'd be going aggressively overweight. Excellent point. Well,
let's move on then. As I said, we could talk
about equis all day, but we can't, or perhaps we shouldn't,
So let's move on to to fixed income now then, Jonathan,
if you don't mind so broadly speaking again, how has
fixed income as an asset class?
Speaker 3 (09:02):
I guess fared so far this year? It's done fine.
If you look at long term interest rates, both in
Australia and the US, you know they're kind of bouncing
around somewhere between four and five percent. Now, a four
to five percent yield when inflation is running at two
to three, I mean, that's not a bad number, right,
So fixed interest markets are looking reasonably attractive. The problem
(09:25):
is that if you lock your money up for ten
years at four to five percent and interest rates go
the wrong way, you can actually have a capital loss.
So we do quite like shorter dated fixed income things
like floating rate notes, for example, where you can get
an extra fifty basis points to one percent above the
(09:47):
prevailing interest rates in money markets. Those sort of opportunities
we think are quite positive. Otherwise, we quite like fixing income.
Just be a bit careful about that those longer dated securities.
If we get inflation proving to be stubborn and interest
rates staying higher for longer, there is one actually, Tom,
(10:08):
at the risk of turning this into a two hour podcast,
I think the fixed interest chart that has caught my
attention is what's happened to the thirty year bond rate
in the US. Now, that might sound a little bit esoteric,
but the thirty rate bond yield in the US, the
gap between that and the tenure bond rate in the US,
(10:29):
has been steadily climbing. This is one chart in the
first six months of the year that doesn't look like
a V shape or a upside down mountain or something
like that. It's a steady climb and that we think
reflects the market's concern about things like the long term
sustainability give the US deficit and things like that. So
that's a little bit esoteric, Tom.
Speaker 2 (10:50):
And again, without turning this into a politics podcast, has
some very relevant things going through American Congress right now
isn't there, So we'll all wait and see see what
happened there with that potentially big, beautiful bill. We've touched
on equities, we touched on fixing income, but I also
want to get you your thoughts on gold as well, Jonathan.
(11:11):
I feel like I saw tons of headlines last year
about gold prices and record highs for gold. But how's
it fared, I guess in twenty twenty five. Yeah, so
gold has had a really strong run over the first
six months of the year. It's gone from twenty six
hundred dollars an ounce US up to over thirty three
hundred ounce. That's an increase of sort of twenty five
(11:32):
to thirty percent, which is really significant. There's one caveat
all place there, and that everyone talks about the gold
price in US dollar terms, but the US dollar has
actually been weakening over that period. So if you were
to look for an Australian investor, I mean to be
a twenty percent return, there's still a big number, but
that the return is not going to be quite as large.
(11:53):
I think the second thing about gold is not only
the return, but also the way it's behaved in times
of a market crisis. And I think what the market
noticed was the last big crisis we had earlier this year,
bonds and equities kind of went the same way, and
(12:14):
so this idea of diversifying where you don't have all
your eggs in one basket and if one asset class
performs poorly, then the other one will do well, that
didn't really work for bonds and equity, and I think
a lot of the interest in gold comes from investors
who are trying to find an effective diversifier within their portfolio,
and certainly at State Street, that's something we've looked at
(12:36):
gold to do, is to provide that diversification. Other reasons
for the increase of things like central bank buying. We've
certainly seen plenty of that physical gold, particularly in places
like India and China. It's a very active market. It's
a big part of the global gold market that's been
buying there, and also within managed funds and ETFs, we've
(12:57):
seen more buying of gold bullion within those kind of
investments as well. So we think that three thousand dollars
US is probably a reasonable flaw going forward. To fall
below that, you'd need to have a real de risking
in the geopolitical landscape, so you know, a fantastic thawing
(13:20):
of relations between Charina and the US for example, that's
the kind of environment where you might see gold slip
back well again, given the year that we've had, who
knows what's going to happen in the future in regards
to that and other things.
Speaker 3 (13:34):
I don't think.
Speaker 2 (13:34):
I feel like you've already given us plenty of food
for thoughts already in terms of what might lie ahead.
But before we, I guess, start to write things up today,
is there anything else that you'd like to leave us
with in terms of financial markets and the outlook ahead
for them in the months ahead.
Speaker 3 (13:51):
Look, I think Tom, we're still a little bit cautious,
so we think the global economy will have a soft land,
but there are risks to the downside, and so you know,
overall we underweight equities in the short term, but those
positions can change very quickly, and I think Tom, for
(14:15):
longer term investors, you're better off speaking to your financial advisor,
finding the right mix for you and then don't do
too much to it. And in fact, our longer term
model portfolios that we offer to clients through financial advisors,
we actually didn't change the allocations at all in the
last twelve months. We toyed with maybe putting some emerging
(14:36):
markets in there, we toyed with a couple of other things,
but actually decided to leave them unchanged. So if you're
someone who speaks to a financial advisor and doesn't change
things that often, well, don't worry. Certainly at State Street
we think you're in good company.
Speaker 2 (14:51):
Certainly, certainly what I have been doing sitting on my hands,
and maybe I should add logging out of my app
as well to make sure I turned don't get too
dressed out and buy everything that's happening and just think
about the long term rather than the blips along the way.
This has been absolutely fantastic. It's been a pleasure to
have you on, so thank you so much for your time,
for giving you such a comprehensive review of what's happened
(15:11):
and what we might look forward to in the months ahead. So,
as I said, it's been a pleasure, and we'll look
forward to having you back on again soon, perhaps to
come and give you a score in terms of some
of those forecasts that you've given us since how you've done.
Speaker 3 (15:26):
Looking forward to it, Tom, Thank you.
Speaker 2 (15:29):
That's it for this episode of the Friends of Money podcast,
but don't forget to jump on our website moneymag dot
com dot AU for your daily dose of financial news.
Or you can go grab yourself a copy of the
late Decision of Money magazine in all good news agents.
As always, Friends with Money will be right back in
your podcast feed next week, so until then, my name
is Tom Watson.
Speaker 1 (15:47):
Goodbye for now, Thanks for listening to the Friends with
Money podcast. For credible, independent and easy to understand financial commentary,
visit moneymag dot com dot A. You please remember that
the views and opinions expressed in this podcast are general
in nature, and further independent advice and research based on
(16:08):
your personal circumstances should be sought before making an investment
decision