October 13, 2025 • 49 mins
Christi sits down with Economist and Colorado Mesa University Professor, Nathan Perry, for this month's Full Circle Podcast. They discuss the Grand Valley economy and demographics, the impact of AI on jobs, and a whole lot more for this fascinating episode!
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Christi Reece (00:05):
The Full Circle Podcast.
Compelling interviews andincredible tales from Colorado's
Western Slope, from themountains to the desert.
Christi Reece and her team hearfrom the movers, shakers, and
characters of the Grand Valleyand surrounding mountain towns
that make the Western Slope theplace we all love.
You'll learn, you'll laugh,you'll love with the Full
Circle.
Hi everyone, and welcome backto the Full Circle Podcast.
(00:27):
I'm your host, Christi Reece,and I'm really excited today to
have as our guest Nathan Perry,an economist here in the Grand
Junction area and also professorof economics at Colorado Mesa
University.
Welcome.
Nathan Perry (00:38):
Yeah, thanks for having me.
Christi Reece (00:39):
Yeah.
If you are a member of thebusiness community here anywhere
on the Western Slope, um, youmight have heard of Nathan
Perry, and he does a lot ofspeaking about Western Slope
economics and um uh especiallyrural communities.
Is that right, Nathan?
Nathan Perry (00:55):
Yeah.
Christi Reece (00:55):
I mean, that's what we have a lot of on the
Western Slope.
Nathan Perry (00:58):
That's right.
So we cover the Western Slope.
Mm-hmm.
Christi Reece (01:00):
And um tell us, let's start with a little bit
about your background and umyour uh education and how you
got to Grand Junction.
Nathan Perry (01:09):
Sure.
Um I was born and raised inSalt Lake City.
Um, blue-collar family, so mydad runs a welding business.
Christi Reece (01:15):
Uh-huh.
Nathan Perry (01:16):
So I know how to weld.
I grew up pipe fitting and um,you know, working on
construction sites.
And, you know, I was good atschool, had a really high GPA,
so I went to college and uhwasn't sure what I wanted to do
after I finished myundergraduate, um, but I had
done a low-income advocacyinternship.
So I worked for a place calledthe Urban Community Center, and
(01:39):
I did a bunch of low-incomeadvocacy research and some
legislative lobbying, which waskind of cool as a you know
21-year-old.
Christi Reece (01:46):
And this was in Salt Lake City?
Nathan Perry (01:47):
This was in Salt Lake.
And um, and the person who Iworked for on that internship
said, wow, you know, you'd bereally good at a PhD in
economics.
And I wasn't sure what I wantedto do at that point.
I wasn't sure if I was gonnafollow my dad into construction,
if I was gonna It's a bigchange.
I uh well, you know, I waslucky to have options, I guess.
(02:07):
But uh now I thought about amaster's in finance, I thought
about going to law school, andbut anyway, she wrote me this
incredible letter, and I endedup getting into a PhD program,
not only just getting in, butthey waived tuition and gave me
funding to be a TA, and I justthought that was too good of a
deal to uh pass up, and it wasat the you know very old age of
(02:31):
22 that that happened, which wasway too young to start graduate
school.
Christi Reece (02:35):
Aaron Powell Did you understand the occupational
opportunities that might beavailable to you as an
economist?
Nathan Perry (02:42):
You know, I was interested in policy, I was
interested in data, I wasinterested in finance.
Um, you know, when you're 22,you don't really know until you
get into the world.
You know, it's easy for me tosay in my 40s what that is to a
student because I've I've workedin this career and I I can see
the paths that people go, butwhen you're 22, you just get I
(03:02):
just hope I get a job, right?
Christi Reece (03:03):
Yeah, something that pays the bills.
Yeah.
Nathan Perry (03:05):
And so I I'd worked at American Express for
five years, which is a reallygreat experience.
And um, I mean they just gaveme money, and so I just went to
the PhD in economics.
Yeah.
Christi Reece (03:19):
Awesome.
And so, and how did you get toGrand Junction?
Nathan Perry (03:22):
Yeah, so in 2010, I finished my PhD, and uh I
basically drew a circle aroundSalt Lake City, where my and my
wife's family is from, and Isaid, here's a half a day's
drive, and here's where I'mgoing to live.
And this uh school that I neverheard of called Mesa State
College had an opening thatyear.
And I threw an app out and cameout here and interviewed and
(03:46):
ended up getting the job, whichin 2010, you know, the Great
Recession, uh felt veryfortunate to get a job.
You know, I have multiplefriends that were unemployed for
multiple years.
Christi Reece (03:59):
In the economics field, you mean?
No, just in general.
Nathan Perry (04:02):
Across the board.
Yeah.
Um, and so, and even inacademic jobs were hard to get.
You know, I was willing to workin banking, which was zero
jobs.
Um, you know, I was really goodat teaching in graduate school.
Uh I taught a lot of classes,um, which is abnormal.
Usually you don't teach a wholelot during grad school, but I
liked it and I was good at it.
(04:22):
And so I had a good teachingresume, and I took the job and
moved out here and been heresince.
Christi Reece (04:31):
And and since you started teaching here, you
opened your own economicadvisory company, correct?
Nathan Perry (04:37):
Um well, you know, I I do a few things.
So it so obviously I teacheconomics for CMU, which is
amazing.
And then we run what we callright now the Economics Center.
And um so the Economics Centerfocuses on these economic
newsletters.
So let me maybe go a little bitfurther back if you don't mind.
(04:59):
Yeah, please.
You know, when I moved here in2010, I got asked all sorts of
interesting questions about theeconomy, and some of them were
kind of crazy, you know, justpeople throwing out anecdotal
evidence and data that Ithought, man, there's no way
that that's true.
Christi Reece (05:16):
And so Are you speaking of a local economy?
Nathan Perry (05:18):
Yeah.
Yeah.
So some people say, well, youknow, oil and gas is 60% of the
economy here.
Oh, this industry is, you know,that and I'm like, that's both
of those things are completelywrong.
And so, you know, around 2014,you know, because when you start
your academic career, you needto publish papers.
That's just part of what we do.
We got to show that we'reexperts and that we can do it.
So I I spent the first fewyears really focusing on uh
(05:41):
publishing, but um I started tonotice more and more as I got to
know the community, there'sthis need for data so people
could make decisions.
And, you know, there's data allover the place, but nobody
knows where to find it.
And some data, you know, youhave to calculate yourself.
And so um in the past, therehad been these economic
(06:01):
newsletters that were conducted.
And um around 2016 by whom?
By the chamber or no, uh CMUdid it in the 90s and then a
little bit in the 2000s.
And um, excuse me.
And so around 2016, there was arequest to do them.
I think it was from the uh fromCity Council, and um, you know,
(06:24):
we just kind of ended up doingit in our own way at CMU.
Started with Mesa County, thenMontrose, and then Delta, and
now um, you know, Garfield, RioBlanco, uh Moffitt, and Route
County.
So we're looking at doing more.
We want to expand what we do atthe Economic Center.
Uh we kind of have a new namewe're working on.
I don't want to talk about ittill you know it's it's formal,
(06:47):
but we're hoping to get morefaculty involved other than just
you know being the Nate Perryshow and see if we can uh expand
what we do.
I'm kind of I'm pretty tappedout in terms of hours.
I think everybody in thecommunity knows that.
But I think that if we getother people involved, we can do
more interesting regionalresearch.
Um so I'm really excited aboutthat.
Christi Reece (07:09):
And is the Western slope, can you um use
that as a geographic region as awhole as opposed to the eastern
slope or you know, just half ofColorado?
Does that make sense to you?
I mean, are we we lumping allof those counties together plus
all the way up to the bordernorth and south?
Nathan Perry (07:27):
Yeah, I think you know, Colorado is an interesting
state.
Um it's really like three orfour different economies.
You know, you have WesternColorado, and you can lump the
mountain towns in, but I thinkthat's their own area.
You know, you kind of have thissliver of mountain towns just
east of us that really havetheir own economic issues and
things that drive their localeconomy.
(07:50):
And then you get to the frontrange, and that's gigantic, and
you know, there's aerospace andall these other things driving
that.
But then southern Coloradoreally kind of has a unique um
it's a unique region and has aunique economy, and then the
eastern plains are also unique.
Christi Reece (08:06):
Yeah.
Nathan Perry (08:07):
And so, you know, there are a lot of people who
are covering the state ofColorado.
You can Google online peoplewho, you know, there's all sorts
of policy wonks in Denver thatare covering the Colorado data,
but nobody was covering theWestern Slope.
And I think people here wereinterested in having some data
to try and know what's going on.
Christi Reece (08:26):
Right like you said, you met a lot of people
who were giving you all thisanecdotal uh information and
there wasn't really anything tosupport it.
Nathan Perry (08:34):
Yeah, that's right.
Christi Reece (08:36):
So that's what you've started doing.
Nathan Perry (08:37):
Yeah, and so and then it went from newsletters,
you know, I started doing a lotof studies.
Um, I did a country jam studyin 2014, and that kind of got
things going for me.
My colleague Tim Casey inPolitical Science, wonderful
man, um got me on some of his uhBLM research, Bureau of Land
Management Research, and we didsome really cool studies
(09:00):
together, uh including a realestate study where we looked at
the uh value of homes and hownatural amenities impact the
value of those homes.
You know, I I lived up in theridges, I rented in the ridges
my first year, four years here,and uh excuse me.
And um, you know, I I loved thehouse we lived in.
(09:21):
And I I asked the landlord, I'mlike, hey, you know, would you
sell me this house?
And she says she's a greatperson.
Um but she uh she said, well,you know, it's really close to
trails, and so that pushes theprice up, and it's close to the
golf course, so that pushes theprice up.
And you're like really throwingthese numbers out, and I
thought, you know what, I'mgonna exactly quantify that.
(09:42):
So and so that's what we did inthis study.
Um kind of a fun study thatshows that if you know you build
a trail system around a house,it can actually drastically up
the value, or if you know youhave an existing trail system,
um price goes up.
Christi Reece (09:58):
I think we're um we're so lucky to have the data
that you are providing, but umin so many different ways.
Um uh you've done some economicimpact studies on energy,
outdoor recreation, festivals,sports events, and nonprofits,
and I'm sure other things aswell.
Nathan Perry (10:16):
Yeah.
So, you know, we did the Bureauof Land Management uh research
with uh Dr.
Casey.
So, you know, we've done allthe trail systems and we've
looked at natural amenities.
Um we worked with the outdoorrec industry here to try and
accurately measure.
It's really the firstcounty-level study of outdoor
recreation.
(10:36):
It's kind of unique because alot of people think that's just
tourism, but we looked attourism and business activity
that are outdoor rec related.
Because you know, outdoor recit encompasses several
industries.
Yeah, it's it's not anindustry, it's kind of a you
know, there are severalindustries that can be
considered uh outdoor rec.
Christi Reece (10:56):
And so and then there's some that are kind of
adjacent.
Nathan Perry (10:58):
Yeah, that's right.
And so we we sent out somesurvey data, um, sent out some
surveys, got some great data.
We're able to figure out thetourism impact, the business
impact, you know, we had somecomplicated uh methodological
issues in there that we sortedthrough, and you know, we've got
we've had that um technicalreport posted for three or four
years.
We've actually we're trying topublish it right now in a
(11:20):
journal.
Oh, great, which I think iskind of neat.
So um, but yeah, I've you know,I've looked at uh done a lot of
energy stuff, so worked with umCraig and Hayden up in
northwest Colorado, trying to,you know, because coal's going
away in that area.
And so how do we solve thateconomic problem?
Because that's a big economicproblem.
Christi Reece (11:40):
Yeah.
Nathan Perry (11:41):
And um, you know, how do you do it in a way that's
apolitical, which is, you know,another thing I've really tried
to to stick with is how do I doresearch that I don't know,
doesn't that is useful tosociety, but giving a
perspective on the numberswithout it being perceived as a
political.
I mean, it it's so easy to readthe news and to see, you know,
(12:06):
some professor back east, youknow, spouting his opinion on
whatnot as though that's I Ijust don't think that's useful.
And so I've ri tried reallyhard to be really transparent
about how I approach things andto provide useful information.
But the Northwest Coloradostuff's been some of my favorite
work because when those coalmines close and when the power
(12:26):
plant closes, there's going tobe a big economic hole.
And so I've been involved in acouple studies that uh are
trying to help plug that hole,you know, measure the losses,
and then what do we need to doto recover those losses over the
next 10 years.
Christi Reece (12:43):
Well, could you talk a little bit about the
energy sector here?
Because that was a big studythat you did to show what
percentage of our overalleconomy it took um it took part
in, and um, how is thatchanging?
And how has it changed over thelast year?
Nathan Perry (12:58):
Yeah, so it's interesting because I was asked,
you know, I was talking aboutthe questions I was asked
earlier, and you know, there'sreally two or three of them.
One is how big is outdoor rec?
Another question I get all thetime is how many remote workers?
And I st I still wish I couldanswer that question.
I can't.
Um and then so how big isoutdoor rec and how big is oil
and gas?
Those are the two questions.
(13:19):
And uh I I get asked about agquite a bit.
I have an ag study coming out,so now I've answered all the
questions, I can retire.
So wait, we have to redo themevery few years, right?
Yes, if it's useful.
Um so the oil and gas studythat you're referencing back in
what, I think I used 2017 data,published that in 2019.
(13:40):
Um, you know, that was anattempt to figure out, you know,
how big currently is oil andgas in the peons basin.
And because the thing with thatindustry is it's not just the
oil workers.
There are a ton of supply chaineffects.
What we call the multiplier onoil and gas is very high.
When things ramp up in oil andgas, uh you start to see a lot
(14:01):
of jobs created that scalesbeyond what other industries can
create because there's so muchmoney.
Christi Reece (14:06):
So much money.
Nathan Perry (14:07):
And people in this town know that.
If you live through, you know,2005, through you know, the next
10 years after that, people sawin 07-08.
Christi Reece (14:16):
I had oil workers in every house on my block, it
seemed like.
You know, they were just theywere everywhere.
Nathan Perry (14:21):
Yeah, and if they weren't employed directly by um
an oil company, then they workedfor a construction company that
was probably being hired by theoil company.
And so that's that's the supplychain and you know what we call
multiplier effects.
So um I can't remember what thenumbers in that study showed,
but we were at least able toquantify it.
But I can tell you what'shappened since then.
(14:43):
You know, oil and gas in theregion has been falling on
average between five and tenpercent, uh, regardless of how
you measure it.
You know, I covered that in mynewsletter.
There's a there's a graph inthe energy section um that that
shows that it's been on adownward volatile march.
You know, it swings down andalmost you know up and down with
the net price of natural gas.
(15:05):
And so what would be nice forthe industry and for the region
is if that that industry couldjust kind of start moving
horizontally.
You know, I don't think adowntrend is good, um,
especially for places likeWestern Garfield.
You know, Mesa is big enoughthat we can absorb a lot of
those jobs, but there are otherregions, you know, coal up in
(15:27):
Craig and oil and gas in WesternGarfield, where that's really
the key industry.
You know, a lot of othersub-industries exist around that
key industry that will also goaway.
Christi Reece (15:38):
So I feel like um Mace County has done a good job
of attempting to diversify umso that it's not just relying on
outdoor recreation or energysector.
Um do you feel that that that'sbeen a um a conscious,
intentional kind of shift?
Nathan Perry (15:57):
Yeah, I do.
Um, you know, this is aninteresting town because there's
so much emphasis on economicdevelopment.
I think after the oil and gasdownturn, you know, we when and
it was more than oil and gas, wehad a real estate and oil and
gas bubble here, so it was worsethan the rest of the nation
that just had a real estatebubble.
But um, you know, after that, Ithink a lot of people saw we,
(16:21):
you know, we don't necessarilywant to attack oil and gas.
You know, we want the industryto be uh a contributing
industry, but there are somethings out of our control, so
how do we what can we do?
You know, and well you canbuild up other industries, and
then if oil and gas goes up,great, you know, we get that
contribution.
But if oil and gas goes down,which it has since uh oh nine,
(16:43):
um then you have all these otherbase industries, and that's
exactly what you see, you know,and I have that in the energy
section as or I can't rememberwhat section it's in, maybe it's
in the industry section, but uhyou know, healthcare has grown
like crazy in the last fiveyears, really in the last 15
years.
And a lot of the you know,we've seen a lot of other
industries besides oil and gasgrow, whereas oil and gas has
(17:05):
shrunk, and so that the math onthat, you know, is basically
we're more diversified.
But even if oil and gas wouldhave stayed at the 2010 levels,
all non-oil and gas industrieshave grown pretty solidly.
And so by any measure, you canit's really hard to argue that
Mesa County is not morediversified away from that one.
(17:26):
Now, we're not diversified awayfrom healthcare.
But see, the difference is Imean, healthcare is a behemoth
here.
If if if there were swings inhealthcare like there were in
oil and gas, this town would bea mess.
You know, but uh fortunatelyour biggest industry now, which
is healthcare, is extremelystable.
So you don't see a lot oflayoffs, you know, COVID was as
(17:46):
crazy as it gets, you know, withhealthcare, and you saw a lot
of nurses uh, you know, you didsee a downturn in employment and
healthcare, but since about 22,maybe late 21, we've seen just
skyrocket employment andhealthcare.
Christi Reece (17:59):
I maybe should have mentioned at the beginning
of this that I uh dropped out ofcollege economics because I
thought it was really difficult.
Um, my teacher and I went toSouthern Methodist University
and my professor there um spokein terms of fast cars and um
cigars and bourbon, as iscommodities.
Sounds very Texas.
Yeah, it was it was um maybe Ineed to be more Texas.
(18:21):
But um uh do you think that umbecause the oil and gas uh was
shrinking in this area that theothers filled the void or would
they have grown anyway?
Nathan Perry (18:37):
I think they would have grown anyways.
Um don't get me wrong, I seethe effort that a lot of
commissioners and city counciland GJEP and the chamber and all
these different organizationsput in.
That's kind of what I washinting at earlier.
It's an interesting townbecause people care about
economic development, you know.
Other towns, other places, youknow, like bigger cities,
(18:59):
they're sick of growth.
You know, it's only the youknow, the the then if you talk
to anybody from Denver, it'slike, oh my gosh, it's so crazy.
Too big, yeah.
Why are all these people whyare there all these people?
Um but they can say thatbecause they haven't had the
type of downswing that MaceCounty experienced or the
Western Slope experienced, andyou realize, wow, we've got to
(19:20):
make something happen if thathappens again.
And uh I feel like that's kindof the mentality.
Christi Reece (19:25):
So let's talk about the future of the
different sectors and what jobsdo you see being uh, you know,
really big in growth in the next10, 20 years?
Nathan Perry (19:37):
Yeah, um, well, I think healthcare is gonna
continue to grow because there'sa rural healthcare funding
issue that's gonna hurt a lot ofour surrounding counties, and
not just in Colorado, but acrossthe nation.
And it's gonna push more of thehealthcare needs to the
healthcare centers and GrandJunction's a healthcare center.
So I think we're gonna see alot of growth in healthcare
continue.
Christi Reece (19:56):
Aaron Ross Powell That's gonna affect our
population as well, assumingthat some of these people from
the mountain towns and the ruralcommunities are gonna actually
move to healthcare centers asopposed to staying in the small
towns.
Nathan Perry (20:08):
Yeah, well, and that's that's the question.
You know, how responsive arepeople who live in these places
going to be to moving closer tothe health care?
It depends on their age anddepends on their health.
Um, you know, of course, MesaCounty skews more towards
retirees.
We have a big baby boompopulation in Mesa County
compared to the state ofColorado, which has a huge
millennial population.
Um so you know, the TaylorSwift album was a big deal in
(20:30):
Colorado, but not so much inMesa County.
Uh so you know, the age of ourpopulation also, and and the
fact that a lot of people retirehere.
You know, it's a great place toretire.
Um it's warmer, you've got ahealthcare center, uh, there are
a lot of people, you know, ofretiree age, um, their things to
(20:51):
do.
So um that's gonna put upwardpressure on health care, you
know, with that because when uhyou should know in real estate,
I mean, who are you selling mostof your homes to?
Christi Reece (21:02):
Well, a lot of retirees.
Right.
Yeah, and the um the priceshave continued to appreciate,
and uh even with um more houseson the market, we're not seeing
the median price go down.
Right.
And so it's just harder andharder for the young folks,
young families to come here.
Um hopefully we get someinterest rate reductions that
(21:24):
will help change that a littlebit.
But I think the uh apartment uhsituation has been really good,
and at least there's some umreasonable places for people to
stay, um, younger families andthings.
But of course, we believe inbuilding wealth and home
ownership, so we want to getthose people into homes, but
it's with the cost ofconstruction, it's getting
(21:45):
really hard to build anaffordable entry-level home.
Nathan Perry (21:49):
It's concerning, and it's you know, I I sound
like I I probably talk aboutthis too much, you know.
No, you don't, this is yourjob.
But um, I think it's one of ourbigger issues.
You know, we talk aboutpopulation growth.
Oh, why aren't young peoplehaving kids?
Why aren't they gettingmarried?
Well, it's because they don'thave the same opportunities.
Christi Reece (22:07):
They're scared to death.
I've got an 18-year-old and a20-year-old, and they think
there's no way I'll ever be ableto afford a home.
Nathan Perry (22:13):
That's right.
It's the same thing with mystudents.
Um, you know, we populationgrowth is one of the most
important issues in economics,so I talk about it a lot, and I
like to, you know, I I getaccess to all these young people
and I get to try and figure outwhat the trends are with
different generations.
And you know, it's when yougrow up in a house with the play
(22:34):
set in the back, you don't wantto start a family in an
apartment.
Now, lots of cultures havefamilies around.
Christi Reece (22:42):
Yes.
Even in the East Coast, on alot of the United States, and I
think that's something in theWest that we have to start
thinking about.
Nathan Perry (22:49):
But humans care about relative status.
You know, that's ingrained inour hindbrain.
And, you know, I I think that'sa holdup for a lot of young
people.
They're like, well, I'm notwhere I'm supposed to be to
where I'm supposed to be buyinga house yet.
And then the affordability, youknow, we're building a ton of
multifamily units, which isgreat, but it's not going to
build wealth.
(23:09):
You know, versus I I bought astarter home, you know, in 2005.
Um unfortunately I sold it in2010, so I didn't make any
equity.
But uh, you know, um that'swhat you're supposed to do.
You're supposed to find a anold crappy house and fix it up
when you're young and um youknow, you sell it and move on to
the next.
But if you don't get into thatfirst one, it's hard to hard to
(23:32):
do.
And uh interest rates aremaking it prohibitive for buyers
and sellers don't want to lowertheir price.
And um we're gonna need a lotmore inventory hitting the
market to force that price down.
You're starting to see a rise,but not it's still not a buyer's
market yet.
I think what's month supply ofinventory at in May side have to
have three, yeah.
(23:53):
So we need to get to five orsix for the price to fall.
Yeah.
And we're not there yet.
Christi Reece (23:59):
Agree.
Um, it occurs to me thatthere's a lot of psychology in
economics.
Nathan Perry (24:06):
Yes.
Isn't there?
Yeah.
Christi Reece (24:08):
It's not just numbers.
Nathan Perry (24:10):
No, um, there's a lot of numbers though.
Uh so many numbers.
Uh yeah, I think you know,economics is trying to figure
out how humans behave togetherand what the outcomes of that
collective behavior mean for ourstandard of living, you know.
And so you can't just assumethat everybody acts a certain
(24:34):
way and that you're going to seecertain outcomes over time.
You know, one thing I emphasizein my classes is what we call
institutions.
And that's culture, that can bereligion, that can be
government, that can be, youknow, certain cultural trends
and intergenerational trends.
And um, you know, millennialsare and institutions shape
(24:54):
economics, but then economicsshape institutions and behavior.
So for instance, you know, in2010, the millennials were had a
10% unemployment rate.
They all hit the job market andthey couldn't find work.
Christi Reece (25:07):
So what did so what did they do?
Nathan Perry (25:08):
Well, they delayed starting families, right?
They did not get married, theydid not buy housing, they got
into pub culture.
So IPA beer became really coolwith the millennials, you know,
drinking, millennials drank offthe charts compared to other
generations.
Christi Reece (25:23):
I was just reading about the craft brewer
breweries um all going out ofbusiness now.
So many of them.
Nathan Perry (25:29):
Because the millennials are too old to drink
all the time because they haveresponsibilities now, but Gen Z
doesn't drink.
Christi Reece (25:35):
Yeah.
Nathan Perry (25:36):
And so you can see this with um with stock prices
of alcohol, you know.
And so Gen Z is different.
They're very entrepreneurial,you know, they're very concerned
about housing, they're afraidof each other because of the
culture wars.
And uh, you know, I'm I I Ilike Gen Z a lot, but they, you
(25:58):
know, we'll see what happenswith them.
Yeah.
Christi Reece (26:01):
So um let's circle back to other job uh
opportunities for Mesa Countyand Western Colorado.
Um pretty different in otherregions of uh Western Colorado
because a lot of those towns aretourist economies, right?
Nathan Perry (26:19):
Yeah, I mean we have a lot of tourism here.
Um, but uh you know, becausewe're bigger, it doesn't show up
as much as say if you, youknow, are in Vail, where tourism
is like a huge thing.
Um so we have a good sizetourism industry here.
I mean, we have magnificenttrails, there's tons of public
(26:39):
land, so it definitely makes adifference here.
Christi Reece (26:41):
Um and I do think that could be a growing sector
for us because uh from arealtor's perspective, we feel
like we're being discovered allthe time.
You know, we go through thesesurges where we get phone calls
from people going, man, I I'venever heard of Grand Junction,
and I just read about it, and Iwant to come there, and and we
see surges of growth and it getsexciting, and then I feel like
(27:03):
it settles down a little bit,and then it comes again in these
kind of waves, and I feel likethere's this constant um uh
discovering of Grand Junction,which is kind of cool.
Nathan Perry (27:14):
Yeah.
Um, well, you know, we're stillmore affordable than the front
range.
And this isn't, you know, theWest in general is just insane.
You know, the millennials flockto Colorado, Utah, Idaho,
Nevada, Arizona, and all ofthose states are unaffordable
now.
But in but Grand Junction inColorado, we're still cheaper
(27:36):
than other places.
And so if we can provide jobopportunities, then that's a
great settling point for youngpeople who maybe want to start
families.
So yeah, and so you know,healthcare is a big one.
I think um heavy and lightindustry is uh uh is great for
this town, especially with thefederal government um, you know,
(27:59):
emphasis on reshoring um supplychains.
I think there are someopportunities there.
You know, curtis at GGPs on ontop of who they're recruiting,
it's it's hard for me to to kindof to say what industries are
my favorite, but those are thoseare two that I think are
universally liked.
Christi Reece (28:17):
So and we have still a lot of land to develop
in this community.
You know, I grew up in LakeCity.
Yeah, and um the population isnever gonna get very big there
because there is just is not theuh private land to be
developed.
And that's a way in a lot ofthe smaller towns.
Nathan Perry (28:36):
Right.
Uh I mean if you go north,there's a ton of development.
It's crazy.
Um even up I was up in theridge, I went to the ridges 360,
or what's that called?
I went to the Prada.
Yeah, Red Land.
Okay, sorry.
Um I'm like, oh my gosh, Ididn't even know that this space
existed.
Christi Reece (28:51):
You know, 660 acres right in the middle of the
Redlands.
Nathan Perry (28:55):
I mean, we were a couple ridges over up in the
ridges, and uh I was I wassurprised.
So, you know, we still arecapped by um federal land around
us.
So it's you know, what is it,73% public land in Mace County,
but we still, you know, there'sstill room to expand.
Um, you know, hopefully we cando it in a way that doesn't ruin
(29:17):
the uh the charm of the place.
That's always the problem withrural economic development is
people move here, you know, tbecause they like the charm, but
then more people move here andthen some of the charm goes
away.
So how do you how do youbalance that?
It it's hard as an economistbecause um you know you want to
(29:37):
see growth because it lifts upeverybody's standard of living.
And uh and so how how do you dothat, but still keep the small
town feel?
One thing I like about livingin a smaller city is you know,
my is what I tell people iseverything's 15 minutes away
here.
You know, versus when I livedin Salt Lake, it was a 45 minute
drive to the University ofUtah, you know, it was 30
(30:00):
minutes to American Express.
Oh boy, you you should youleave at five o'clock.
I mean, who knows how long it'sgonna be?
Depends if there's an accident.
And the same thing in Denver,you know.
Christi Reece (30:08):
Um there's an accident here, you know about
it.
Yeah, you can go around itpretty easily.
Nathan Perry (30:13):
Yeah, I've noticed the last 10 years there's a
little bit more traffic onPatterson these days.
You know, so I'm like, oh, dowe have rush hour now?
Is that a thing here?
I so so how how to balancethose things is tough, I think.
Um but overall for this town, Ithink that having more economic
opportunities is good.
Yeah.
Christi Reece (30:34):
A lot of your studies uh revolve around
population too, growth anddecline and and the trends that
you're seeing.
Can you talk a little bit aboutwhat you're seeing in Grand
Junction and especially the umthe birth rates?
Nathan Perry (30:46):
Yeah.
So um, you know, Colorado ingeneral kind of has a
demographic problem.
The we're mostly millennial,the millennials didn't have a
lot of kids, and so we're kindof uh aging without young people
to come in and replace.
Um, you know, we call it thedemographic cliff in academia,
(31:06):
where uh, you know, 2026, 18years after the Great Recession,
there's uh there's gonna be adrop in just the number of
18-year-olds.
And um so Mesa County countersuh a lower birth rate um with a
high migration rate.
So we see a ton of retireesmove here, which by the way,
(31:30):
generally have money andstabilize the economy.
Um so not only are we you knowbuilding a lot of different
industries that are you knowhealthcare is fairly recession
proof.
Um in terms of employment.
I know they lose a lot of moneywhen there's recessions, but
you know, in terms ofemployment, um they you know you
don't generally see a lot oflayoffs.
(31:52):
Um but uh you know retireesthey just keep spending unless
there's inflation.
And so we saw the inflation hithurt retirees.
Uh but generally speaking,retirees also help to stabilize
the economy.
And so in a weird twist offate, you know, Grand Junction I
think is set up to be pretty uminsulated from what we might
(32:16):
see with national businesscycles.
But more than other places.
Christi Reece (32:20):
How has the is there uh data about the average
age of our resident and how hasthat changed over the last 25
years?
Nathan Perry (32:28):
It's pretty it stayed fairly consistent.
We're we're always high in thethe older age group, you know,
60s, um, what you think of thebaby boomer group right now, you
know, whatever that was 25years ago.
Um so it's just because of theretirees, whereas we skew uh
lower with younger generations,especially millennials.
(32:49):
But whereas you if you look atDenver, it's just this huge
spike is a ton of millennials inDenver.
That's the millennial city,it's like their capital.
Christi Reece (32:57):
So and what are some of the dangers of this kind
of aging population?
Um you said retirees we tend tohave a little bit more stable
economy, but let's talk aboutschools and what's happening
there.
And how does that affect oureconomy?
Nathan Perry (33:12):
Yeah, well, you know, we've seen some schools
shut down, and um this is thisis an issue not just in Mesa
County, you know, this is anissue across the nation.
The birth rates have fallen.
You know, in Colorado they'vefallen, even in my home state of
Utah, which is known for highbirth rates, it's fallen.
Big families and that's right,and but people can't afford it.
Christi Reece (33:32):
And so um You wouldn't know if you go to the
Parade of Homes out there.
Unbelievable, it'smind-blowing.
Nathan Perry (33:39):
Yeah, it it really is.
Um yeah.
In fact, I just made thatcomment to my wife when we were
at the Grand Junction ParadeHome.
The kids were really impressed.
They're like, wow, these aremansions.
I'm like, you know, let's go tothe Pareto Homes in Denver or
Salt Lake, and you'll you'll seecastles.
People have too much of it.
St.
George.
Christi Reece (33:56):
It's crazy.
Yeah.
Nathan Perry (33:57):
But um But the the the population growth is a is a
national issue.
I mean, it's become a bitpoliticized as everything in
this world, unfortunately, butyou know, we're not at
replacement rate.
You need two people for everytwo adults, and we're not
meeting that standard.
And so you have a couple ofoptions from an economic
perspective when you're not uh,you know, at that rate.
(34:22):
Uh you can import people, soyou can have immigration, or you
can you can do what Elon'sdoing and you can build robots.
Um, you know, I that's kind ofa joke, but it's kind of
serious.
Um, that's what Japan's done.
So Japan has had uh apopulation that has not replaced
itself for quite some time.
So how have they been able toproduce stuff?
(34:45):
Well, they're extremely goodwith robotics and technology
because they don't they can'tbring in a bunch of cheap
workers to do work in factories,they have to have robotics.
And so, you know, the UnitedStates globally is kind of in a
good position because if we needmore people, it's easy to
import people.
(35:06):
Now, I know immigration'spolitical, definitely not going
to get into that, but justthinking in terms of purely
labor supply, if we had a majorlabor supply issue, you know, we
could solve that fairlyquickly.
Now there might be some cost tothat, some political turmoil,
but generally speaking, youknow, we can bring people in.
Versus other parts of the worldwhere that's a lot more
(35:26):
difficult.
You know, Japan's an island.
Um they could try and importpeople, but it it's it's more
complicated.
Christi Reece (35:33):
Oh, interesting.
Nathan Perry (35:34):
But if you don't have more people, then you have
to focus more on technology toproduce stuff.
And um, you know, uh there'sbeen this crazy shift in the
last two years.
You know, five years ago, theargument the argument was we
need more people in the UnitedStates.
And now I'm looking at Elon'sOptimus robots and I'm thinking,
you know, do we need more?
I mean, these robots mightproduce we are in an interesting
(35:58):
world.
I don't know what's gonnahappen.
But if robots can legitimatelytake a lot of the production
process out of the hands ofhumans, you know, I think it
changes the growth um argumentfor needing more people.
So I don't I don't know howit's gonna play out.
I'm watching with fascinationwhatever's put here.
Christi Reece (36:20):
And it's changing so quickly.
Nathan Perry (36:21):
All I know is I'm buying one of those robots
immediately.
Christi Reece (36:24):
Okay.
Nathan Perry (36:24):
It's gonna do my dishes and uh full laundry, and
I'm gonna have it punish my kidsso I don't have to deal with
it.
Christi Reece (36:31):
Perfect.
I want to talk a little bitabout um CMU and uh tell us what
courses you teach and and whatyou love about teaching uh
college kids.
Nathan Perry (36:44):
Yeah, well, um I teach a lot of classes.
I used to teach a lot more.
I've kind of got it narroweddown these days.
I teach intermediatemacroeconomics and I teach money
and banking, and I sometimesteach international economics.
We're running that again in thespring because it's very
topical right now.
And then I teach this classcalled Econometrics, which is uh
(37:04):
fancy economics and statisticsclass.
That's how I did that realtorstudy with the home amenities,
and and then I teach introclasses.
Christi Reece (37:14):
And uh that still sounds like a lot, Nathan.
Nathan Perry (37:16):
It it is.
Uh it's four classes asemester, but uh, you know, I've
been doing it a long time, andum, you know, I do so much other
work that a lot of the economicstuff is just in my head.
Christi Reece (37:29):
And so and it begins to cross over.
You use the data and that'sexactly it.
Nathan Perry (37:34):
You know, um, you know, a lot of the work I do
ends up in the classroom, and Itell stories about, you know,
writing these newsletters, Ishow the newsletters, or I'll
pull up a study.
We we use some of my data setsfrom some of like the house
price study, you know, we usethat in my econometrics class.
And um so you know, what do Ilike about teaching?
(37:56):
You know, as I get older, Ifeel like it keeps me young.
You know, it's weird to say,but you know, my kids keep me
young, but they're they'relittle.
Like college kids are uhadults, but they're college
kids, you know.
And so um and so it's justinteresting to see what's going
on in their lives and you knowto know what's going on.
(38:16):
For instance, um, you know, I'mgonna make fun of the
millennials a little bit morehere.
So, you know, they don't likeTaylor Swift.
Uh you know, they're justthey've moved on, Gen Z, you
know, it's just not for them.
And uh and I wouldn't haveknown that, you know, because
I'm technically a millennial.
And so that's all I hear frompeople.
But you know, you you kind ofsee when the trends change and
(38:39):
how how culture's changing.
Um yeah, you know, you seewhere you get outdated, I'll
I'll have a reference tosomething, and the students will
be like, what?
I'm like, oh, that was too manyyears ago.
You have no idea what I'mtalking about, you know.
Because I started teaching whenI was this is insane to say,
but I mean I taught my firstclass when I was 23 or 24 years
(39:00):
old.
Wow.
You know, my second year ofgrad school, I started way too
young.
But uh, you know, so I waspeers at the time and they
understood all my references,you know.
Right.
Now that I'm in my 40s, I haveto actually think about these
things, you know.
I can't I make a terminatorreference uh about robots.
Christi Reece (39:18):
How many kids are gonna have to understand?
Nathan Perry (39:20):
Who knows what I'm talking about?
And then I gotta come up withsomething else that's you know
not from the 80s.
So, you know, it forces me toand I go home and I'll ask my
son who's a teenager.
Christi Reece (39:30):
I'm like, okay, you know Do you know what this
is?
Nathan Perry (39:32):
Yeah, who's this guy on YouTube?
Or who's someone I can yeah?
It's so it's uh I don't know,there are a lot of things I like
about it.
I like getting up in front ofpeople, I like public speaking,
you know, and I think teachingis just kind of a mini form of
public speaking.
Christi Reece (39:47):
Well, you do a great job.
Everything I've ever attendedthat you've presented to, I I
think has been fantastic, andyou have everybody in the palm
of your hands.
Nathan Perry (39:56):
Well, thank you.
I appreciate that.
I sure enjoy it.
And you know, I I'm good atthat stuff because I've been
teaching for so long.
You know, I know how to toywith the audience and kind of
you know keep them awake.
Christi Reece (40:08):
Yeah.
And uh yeah, from teaching,you've got to keep those
teenagers awake.
But uh all the adults havesleep issues now too, right?
That's right.
Nathan Perry (40:18):
Yeah.
Well, you know, we've all gotsleep issues, I think.
Uh, but yeah.
Christi Reece (40:23):
Um I kind of want to wrap up with um just some uh
advice and outlook for smallbusiness owners.
I'm a small business owner uhhere in Mesa County.
What do I need to be thinkingabout and paying attention to?
And um, as I was mentioning, II was reading the article about
a lot of craft breweries uhreally having a hard time and a
lot of them going bankruptacross the country now.
(40:44):
And um was reading about onethat was shutting down, and and
they said, you know, we justwere we saw unlimited potential
and we weren't paying enoughattention to certain data points
to show us what was reallyhappening in the industry.
Uh we're working on passion.
So as as a small businessowner, uh what kind of advice
can you give folks here?
Nathan Perry (41:06):
Yeah, well, I think small business is the
place to be right now.
You know, you're seeing a lotof bigger corporations.
It's a race to implement AI,which is great if you're gonna,
you know, if you have a job at acorporation, but um what we're
seeing is uh you know, we'reseeing eight 16 to 24 year olds
have an 11% unemployment rateright now.
(41:27):
Well, well, why is that?
Well, that's because AI iseliminating a lot of entry-level
positions.
And so I I don't think it'sgonna stay that high forever.
I think this is just a youknow, people are figuring out
how to employ.
It's a transition.
It's a transition.
Um and so, you know, one thingI try to work with my students
on is you know, yeah, you wantto get a job and get experience,
(41:50):
but you can also start your ownbusiness, you know, and you can
actually buy your own business.
There are businesses for sale,especially if you go to a bigger
city.
And there are a lot of retiringbaby boomers who would love to
sell you that business and teachyou how to run it.
And um and so that's what wetry to do with our business
program is you know, you takeall sorts of classes, accounting
(42:10):
and finance and marketing andyou know, management, so you
have all those skills.
So um so I like the smallbusiness space economically.
Obviously, it's a huge jobcreator.
Um, but if I were to giveadvice to small business owners,
it would be, you know, startand think how you can implement
AI into a lot of your processes.
(42:31):
It's uh it's a crazy tool, andit's getting smarter weekly.
It's actually starting to scareme.
So I can do some I can buildsome crazy models in AI.
And not all small businessesneed you know that type of
stuff, but you can you canprogram it for some very basic
tasks.
And uh that's gonna be a bigproductivity driver for um a lot
(42:56):
of small businesses.
So I think that's kind of thebig trend right now.
Christi Reece (43:00):
I was just at uh we had realtor day today um with
some speakers, and one wasfocusing on AI, and he put up a
slide that said, I want a voteof everybody in the room.
Do you think that AI is goingto um cause job loss, uh, and a
break-even or job creation?
And it was about, you know, athird for each group.
(43:23):
But what what's your what'syour thoughts on that?
Do you think it's uh a jobcreator in the end after the
transition?
Nathan Perry (43:29):
Yeah, you know, this is a hundreds of year old
debate between Adam Smith andKarl Marx.
You know, Adam Smith arguedthat capital and labor are
complements, that when you havenew technology and new
inventions that can do things,that that frees up resources
that then those workers will gointo.
(43:49):
And he's been right, you know,since he made the argument.
And then you have Marx thatsaid, listen, capital and labor
are substitutes.
And if you know AI is going toreplace all of us and we're
gonna have too many peopleunemployed, and we're going to
need a universal basic income.
You know, this comes up everytechnological cycle.
(44:11):
And so far, you know, AdamSmith is, I don't know, what the
record, 12 and oh?
I don't know.
I'm just making that up.
You know, I don't think we'reat the point where robots and AI
are going to take all of ourjobs yet.
The question is, is how is thisgonna enhance productivity so
other people and then what arethose other people gonna move
(44:31):
towards?
You know, what's gonna be thenew industry where we employ the
labor force?
Christi Reece (44:34):
Trevor Burrus, Jr.
But who could have uhenvisioned the money that people
are making on social media justas influencers?
I mean, what a crazy career.
Nathan Perry (44:46):
It is a crazy career.
And I don't like it becausethen my kids think that they can
be social media influences, butthen I see how much money the
social media influences I thinkmake, and I think, man, should I
teach my kids to be so funny?
Christi Reece (44:58):
I know.
Nathan Perry (44:59):
No, just kidding.
But uh yeah, it's I mean you'reright.
Um and you you just don't knowwhat's gonna you don't know
what's gonna hit, you know.
And I it's hard for me topredict, too.
Christi Reece (45:12):
Yeah.
Nathan Perry (45:13):
I just have no idea where this is gonna go.
Christi Reece (45:15):
As much data as you have in your head.
Nathan Perry (45:16):
You know, I I do a lot of reading and um I don't
know.
You know, we're have an agingpopulation, are those people
gonna move into healthcare?
That's something that canhappen.
Are uh are we gonna see a lotmore robotics built and we'll
need to move people intofactories or to be engineers to
build the robots?
I don't know.
Christi Reece (45:36):
Yeah.
Nathan Perry (45:37):
Um interesting things to think about.
You know, by the end of ourlives, you know, we could have
AI-powered robot assistants.
Isn't that crazy to thinkabout?
Christi Reece (45:49):
So if you're willing, uh what advice do you
give to your teenager about whatare some good career paths for
you?
Yeah, considering AI and what'shappening.
Nathan Perry (46:01):
Sure.
Well, you know, um and notsocial media influencer.
Yeah, well, you know, you cando that on the side.
That can be their side gig.
And then I'll be happy aboutit.
Um Right.
Christi Reece (46:11):
If they're in finance and they we have a big
following because of theirfinancial knowledge, great.
Nathan Perry (46:15):
Yeah.
Well, you know, I love uh I Istill think business, you know,
a general business skill set isstill important because robotics
and AI can't replace a lot ofthe things that small businesses
do.
And I think that's where a lotof the employment growth is
going to be.
You know, if you're at a massscale, I worry about corporate
employment, certain roles, notall roles, just certain roles.
(46:37):
But small businesses generally,they're you know, they're gonna
employ AI and technology insmaller ways that may require
more people to employ them.
And um so you know, and I thisis why I tell my this is why
I've been emphasizing businessownership and thinking about
business, because I I just thinkthat's that's a great path.
(46:58):
Um I love engineering.
I think um, you know, I thinkthe world needs more engineers.
Um anything in the healthsciences I think is fantastic.
Uh the trades are great.
You know, I grew up in a tradesfamily, electrician, plumber,
welders, you know, making goodmoney right now.
Christi Reece (47:16):
Yeah, it seems like there's a lot of uh growth
potential in those industries.
Nathan Perry (47:20):
Yeah, so you know, we haven't seen that much, you
know.
AI hasn't destroyed any sort ofeducation paths quite yet, I
don't think.
Um I I still think there'sdemand for things once we get
over this kind of ress we're ina labor market recession right
now, which makes it a little bittough to talk about it this
(47:40):
second.
But um the labor marketrecession won't last.
Uh we're not in a normalrecession, GDP's strong, but the
labor market is, you know, ifyou get unemployed, um it's one
of the worst times to look for ajob since 2013, actually.
Christi Reece (47:54):
Wow.
Nathan Perry (47:54):
And um but but not very many people are getting
fired, but then nobody's gettinghired.
That's that's the labor marketright now, so it's very strange.
So let's see, I said business,engineering, health, care, and
trades.
I'd say those would be my topfour.
Christi Reece (48:11):
Okay, awesome.
Yeah, I hope people are takingnote of this, especially
teenagers.
Nathan Perry (48:16):
Yeah.
Christi Reece (48:17):
Nathan, it's been a real pleasure.
I thank you for taking time outof your busy schedule to talk
with us, and I hope we get lotsof listeners.
I think it's just umfascinating, and I appreciate
all the work that you do, whichreally helps support economic
growth in our region.
Nathan Perry (48:30):
Well, thank you.
I appreciate having me.
It was a lot of fun.
And yeah, if you uh if youdon't don't mind me telling
people where the newsletters areat, you can go to CMU's website
and just type in economiccenter or economic newsletter
and uh should pop up and you cansign up for any of the counties
uh that I cover.
So thanks.
Christi Reece (48:48):
Awesome.
I actually considering umenrolling at CMU to take some of
your classes.
I think it'd be great if I canfinish an economics class.
Nathan Perry (48:56):
I'm more interesting than the other
economists.
Christi Reece (48:58):
I bet you are.
Yeah.
Thank you again.
This has been Christi Reecewith Nathan Perry for the Full
Circle Podcast, and we'll seeyou next time.
Thanks.
Thanks for listening.
This is Christi Reece signingout from the Full Circle
Podcast.
The Full Circle Podcast.
Compelling interviews andincredible tales from Colorado's
Western Slope, from themountains to the desert.
Christi Reece and her team hearfrom the movers, shakers, and
characters of the Grand Valleyand surrounding mountain towns
that make the Western Slope theplace we all love.
You'll learn, you'll laugh,you'll love with the Full
Circle.
Hi everyone, and welcome backto the Full Circle Podcast.
(00:27):
I'm your host, Christi Reece,and I'm really excited today to
have as our guest Nathan Perry,an economist here in the Grand
Junction area and also professorof economics at Colorado Mesa
University.
Welcome.
Nathan Perry (00:38):
Yeah, thanks for having me.
Christi Reece (00:39):
Yeah.
If you are a member of thebusiness community here anywhere
on the Western Slope, um, youmight have heard of Nathan
Perry, and he does a lot ofspeaking about Western Slope
economics and um uh especiallyrural communities.
Is that right, Nathan?
Nathan Perry (00:55):
Yeah.
Christi Reece (00:55):
I mean, that's what we have a lot of on the
Western Slope.
Nathan Perry (00:58):
That's right.
So we cover the Western Slope.
Mm-hmm.
Christi Reece (01:00):
And um tell us, let's start with a little bit
about your background and umyour uh education and how you
got to Grand Junction.
Nathan Perry (01:09):
Sure.
Um I was born and raised inSalt Lake City.
Um, blue-collar family, so mydad runs a welding business.
Christi Reece (01:15):
Uh-huh.
Nathan Perry (01:16):
So I know how to weld.
I grew up pipe fitting and um,you know, working on
construction sites.
And, you know, I was good atschool, had a really high GPA,
so I went to college and uhwasn't sure what I wanted to do
after I finished myundergraduate, um, but I had
done a low-income advocacyinternship.
So I worked for a place calledthe Urban Community Center, and
(01:39):
I did a bunch of low-incomeadvocacy research and some
legislative lobbying, which waskind of cool as a you know
21-year-old.
Christi Reece (01:46):
And this was in Salt Lake City?
Nathan Perry (01:47):
This was in Salt Lake.
And um, and the person who Iworked for on that internship
said, wow, you know, you'd bereally good at a PhD in
economics.
And I wasn't sure what I wantedto do at that point.
I wasn't sure if I was gonnafollow my dad into construction,
if I was gonna It's a bigchange.
I uh well, you know, I waslucky to have options, I guess.
(02:07):
But uh now I thought about amaster's in finance, I thought
about going to law school, andbut anyway, she wrote me this
incredible letter, and I endedup getting into a PhD program,
not only just getting in, butthey waived tuition and gave me
funding to be a TA, and I justthought that was too good of a
deal to uh pass up, and it wasat the you know very old age of
(02:31):
22 that that happened, which wasway too young to start graduate
school.
Christi Reece (02:35):
Aaron Powell Did you understand the occupational
opportunities that might beavailable to you as an
economist?
Nathan Perry (02:42):
You know, I was interested in policy, I was
interested in data, I wasinterested in finance.
Um, you know, when you're 22,you don't really know until you
get into the world.
You know, it's easy for me tosay in my 40s what that is to a
student because I've I've workedin this career and I I can see
the paths that people go, butwhen you're 22, you just get I
(03:02):
just hope I get a job, right?
Christi Reece (03:03):
Yeah, something that pays the bills.
Yeah.
Nathan Perry (03:05):
And so I I'd worked at American Express for
five years, which is a reallygreat experience.
And um, I mean they just gaveme money, and so I just went to
the PhD in economics.
Yeah.
Christi Reece (03:19):
Awesome.
And so, and how did you get toGrand Junction?
Nathan Perry (03:22):
Yeah, so in 2010, I finished my PhD, and uh I
basically drew a circle aroundSalt Lake City, where my and my
wife's family is from, and Isaid, here's a half a day's
drive, and here's where I'mgoing to live.
And this uh school that I neverheard of called Mesa State
College had an opening thatyear.
And I threw an app out and cameout here and interviewed and
(03:46):
ended up getting the job, whichin 2010, you know, the Great
Recession, uh felt veryfortunate to get a job.
You know, I have multiplefriends that were unemployed for
multiple years.
Christi Reece (03:59):
In the economics field, you mean?
No, just in general.
Nathan Perry (04:02):
Across the board.
Yeah.
Um, and so, and even inacademic jobs were hard to get.
You know, I was willing to workin banking, which was zero
jobs.
Um, you know, I was really goodat teaching in graduate school.
Uh I taught a lot of classes,um, which is abnormal.
Usually you don't teach a wholelot during grad school, but I
liked it and I was good at it.
(04:22):
And so I had a good teachingresume, and I took the job and
moved out here and been heresince.
Christi Reece (04:31):
And and since you started teaching here, you
opened your own economicadvisory company, correct?
Nathan Perry (04:37):
Um well, you know, I I do a few things.
So it so obviously I teacheconomics for CMU, which is
amazing.
And then we run what we callright now the Economics Center.
And um so the Economics Centerfocuses on these economic
newsletters.
So let me maybe go a little bitfurther back if you don't mind.
(04:59):
Yeah, please.
You know, when I moved here in2010, I got asked all sorts of
interesting questions about theeconomy, and some of them were
kind of crazy, you know, justpeople throwing out anecdotal
evidence and data that Ithought, man, there's no way
that that's true.
Christi Reece (05:16):
And so Are you speaking of a local economy?
Nathan Perry (05:18):
Yeah.
Yeah.
So some people say, well, youknow, oil and gas is 60% of the
economy here.
Oh, this industry is, you know,that and I'm like, that's both
of those things are completelywrong.
And so, you know, around 2014,you know, because when you start
your academic career, you needto publish papers.
That's just part of what we do.
We got to show that we'reexperts and that we can do it.
So I I spent the first fewyears really focusing on uh
(05:41):
publishing, but um I started tonotice more and more as I got to
know the community, there'sthis need for data so people
could make decisions.
And, you know, there's data allover the place, but nobody
knows where to find it.
And some data, you know, youhave to calculate yourself.
And so um in the past, therehad been these economic
(06:01):
newsletters that were conducted.
And um around 2016 by whom?
By the chamber or no, uh CMUdid it in the 90s and then a
little bit in the 2000s.
And um, excuse me.
And so around 2016, there was arequest to do them.
I think it was from the uh fromCity Council, and um, you know,
(06:24):
we just kind of ended up doingit in our own way at CMU.
Started with Mesa County, thenMontrose, and then Delta, and
now um, you know, Garfield, RioBlanco, uh Moffitt, and Route
County.
So we're looking at doing more.
We want to expand what we do atthe Economic Center.
Uh we kind of have a new namewe're working on.
I don't want to talk about ittill you know it's it's formal,
(06:47):
but we're hoping to get morefaculty involved other than just
you know being the Nate Perryshow and see if we can uh expand
what we do.
I'm kind of I'm pretty tappedout in terms of hours.
I think everybody in thecommunity knows that.
But I think that if we getother people involved, we can do
more interesting regionalresearch.
Um so I'm really excited aboutthat.
Christi Reece (07:09):
And is the Western slope, can you um use
that as a geographic region as awhole as opposed to the eastern
slope or you know, just half ofColorado?
Does that make sense to you?
I mean, are we we lumping allof those counties together plus
all the way up to the bordernorth and south?
Nathan Perry (07:27):
Yeah, I think you know, Colorado is an interesting
state.
Um it's really like three orfour different economies.
You know, you have WesternColorado, and you can lump the
mountain towns in, but I thinkthat's their own area.
You know, you kind of have thissliver of mountain towns just
east of us that really havetheir own economic issues and
things that drive their localeconomy.
(07:50):
And then you get to the frontrange, and that's gigantic, and
you know, there's aerospace andall these other things driving
that.
But then southern Coloradoreally kind of has a unique um
it's a unique region and has aunique economy, and then the
eastern plains are also unique.
Christi Reece (08:06):
Yeah.
Nathan Perry (08:07):
And so, you know, there are a lot of people who
are covering the state ofColorado.
You can Google online peoplewho, you know, there's all sorts
of policy wonks in Denver thatare covering the Colorado data,
but nobody was covering theWestern Slope.
And I think people here wereinterested in having some data
to try and know what's going on.
Christi Reece (08:26):
Right like you said, you met a lot of people
who were giving you all thisanecdotal uh information and
there wasn't really anything tosupport it.
Nathan Perry (08:34):
Yeah, that's right.
Christi Reece (08:36):
So that's what you've started doing.
Nathan Perry (08:37):
Yeah, and so and then it went from newsletters,
you know, I started doing a lotof studies.
Um, I did a country jam studyin 2014, and that kind of got
things going for me.
My colleague Tim Casey inPolitical Science, wonderful
man, um got me on some of his uhBLM research, Bureau of Land
Management Research, and we didsome really cool studies
(09:00):
together, uh including a realestate study where we looked at
the uh value of homes and hownatural amenities impact the
value of those homes.
You know, I I lived up in theridges, I rented in the ridges
my first year, four years here,and uh excuse me.
And um, you know, I I loved thehouse we lived in.
(09:21):
And I I asked the landlord, I'mlike, hey, you know, would you
sell me this house?
And she says she's a greatperson.
Um but she uh she said, well,you know, it's really close to
trails, and so that pushes theprice up, and it's close to the
golf course, so that pushes theprice up.
And you're like really throwingthese numbers out, and I
thought, you know what, I'mgonna exactly quantify that.
(09:42):
So and so that's what we did inthis study.
Um kind of a fun study thatshows that if you know you build
a trail system around a house,it can actually drastically up
the value, or if you know youhave an existing trail system,
um price goes up.
Christi Reece (09:58):
I think we're um we're so lucky to have the data
that you are providing, but umin so many different ways.
Um uh you've done some economicimpact studies on energy,
outdoor recreation, festivals,sports events, and nonprofits,
and I'm sure other things aswell.
Nathan Perry (10:16):
Yeah.
So, you know, we did the Bureauof Land Management uh research
with uh Dr.
Casey.
So, you know, we've done allthe trail systems and we've
looked at natural amenities.
Um we worked with the outdoorrec industry here to try and
accurately measure.
It's really the firstcounty-level study of outdoor
recreation.
(10:36):
It's kind of unique because alot of people think that's just
tourism, but we looked attourism and business activity
that are outdoor rec related.
Because you know, outdoor recit encompasses several
industries.
Yeah, it's it's not anindustry, it's kind of a you
know, there are severalindustries that can be
considered uh outdoor rec.
Christi Reece (10:56):
And so and then there's some that are kind of
adjacent.
Nathan Perry (10:58):
Yeah, that's right.
And so we we sent out somesurvey data, um, sent out some
surveys, got some great data.
We're able to figure out thetourism impact, the business
impact, you know, we had somecomplicated uh methodological
issues in there that we sortedthrough, and you know, we've got
we've had that um technicalreport posted for three or four
years.
We've actually we're trying topublish it right now in a
(11:20):
journal.
Oh, great, which I think iskind of neat.
So um, but yeah, I've you know,I've looked at uh done a lot of
energy stuff, so worked with umCraig and Hayden up in
northwest Colorado, trying to,you know, because coal's going
away in that area.
And so how do we solve thateconomic problem?
Because that's a big economicproblem.
Christi Reece (11:40):
Yeah.
Nathan Perry (11:41):
And um, you know, how do you do it in a way that's
apolitical, which is, you know,another thing I've really tried
to to stick with is how do I doresearch that I don't know,
doesn't that is useful tosociety, but giving a
perspective on the numberswithout it being perceived as a
political.
I mean, it it's so easy to readthe news and to see, you know,
(12:06):
some professor back east, youknow, spouting his opinion on
whatnot as though that's I Ijust don't think that's useful.
And so I've ri tried reallyhard to be really transparent
about how I approach things andto provide useful information.
But the Northwest Coloradostuff's been some of my favorite
work because when those coalmines close and when the power
(12:26):
plant closes, there's going tobe a big economic hole.
And so I've been involved in acouple studies that uh are
trying to help plug that hole,you know, measure the losses,
and then what do we need to doto recover those losses over the
next 10 years.
Christi Reece (12:43):
Well, could you talk a little bit about the
energy sector here?
Because that was a big studythat you did to show what
percentage of our overalleconomy it took um it took part
in, and um, how is thatchanging?
And how has it changed over thelast year?
Nathan Perry (12:58):
Yeah, so it's interesting because I was asked,
you know, I was talking aboutthe questions I was asked
earlier, and you know, there'sreally two or three of them.
One is how big is outdoor rec?
Another question I get all thetime is how many remote workers?
And I st I still wish I couldanswer that question.
I can't.
Um and then so how big isoutdoor rec and how big is oil
and gas?
Those are the two questions.
(13:19):
And uh I I get asked about agquite a bit.
I have an ag study coming out,so now I've answered all the
questions, I can retire.
So wait, we have to redo themevery few years, right?
Yes, if it's useful.
Um so the oil and gas studythat you're referencing back in
what, I think I used 2017 data,published that in 2019.
(13:40):
Um, you know, that was anattempt to figure out, you know,
how big currently is oil andgas in the peons basin.
And because the thing with thatindustry is it's not just the
oil workers.
There are a ton of supply chaineffects.
What we call the multiplier onoil and gas is very high.
When things ramp up in oil andgas, uh you start to see a lot
(14:01):
of jobs created that scalesbeyond what other industries can
create because there's so muchmoney.
Christi Reece (14:06):
So much money.
Nathan Perry (14:07):
And people in this town know that.
If you live through, you know,2005, through you know, the next
10 years after that, people sawin 07-08.
Christi Reece (14:16):
I had oil workers in every house on my block, it
seemed like.
You know, they were just theywere everywhere.
Nathan Perry (14:21):
Yeah, and if they weren't employed directly by um
an oil company, then they workedfor a construction company that
was probably being hired by theoil company.
And so that's that's the supplychain and you know what we call
multiplier effects.
So um I can't remember what thenumbers in that study showed,
but we were at least able toquantify it.
But I can tell you what'shappened since then.
(14:43):
You know, oil and gas in theregion has been falling on
average between five and tenpercent, uh, regardless of how
you measure it.
You know, I covered that in mynewsletter.
There's a there's a graph inthe energy section um that that
shows that it's been on adownward volatile march.
You know, it swings down andalmost you know up and down with
the net price of natural gas.
(15:05):
And so what would be nice forthe industry and for the region
is if that that industry couldjust kind of start moving
horizontally.
You know, I don't think adowntrend is good, um,
especially for places likeWestern Garfield.
You know, Mesa is big enoughthat we can absorb a lot of
those jobs, but there are otherregions, you know, coal up in
(15:27):
Craig and oil and gas in WesternGarfield, where that's really
the key industry.
You know, a lot of othersub-industries exist around that
key industry that will also goaway.
Christi Reece (15:38):
So I feel like um Mace County has done a good job
of attempting to diversify umso that it's not just relying on
outdoor recreation or energysector.
Um do you feel that that that'sbeen a um a conscious,
intentional kind of shift?
Nathan Perry (15:57):
Yeah, I do.
Um, you know, this is aninteresting town because there's
so much emphasis on economicdevelopment.
I think after the oil and gasdownturn, you know, we when and
it was more than oil and gas, wehad a real estate and oil and
gas bubble here, so it was worsethan the rest of the nation
that just had a real estatebubble.
But um, you know, after that, Ithink a lot of people saw we,
(16:21):
you know, we don't necessarilywant to attack oil and gas.
You know, we want the industryto be uh a contributing
industry, but there are somethings out of our control, so
how do we what can we do?
You know, and well you canbuild up other industries, and
then if oil and gas goes up,great, you know, we get that
contribution.
But if oil and gas goes down,which it has since uh oh nine,
(16:43):
um then you have all these otherbase industries, and that's
exactly what you see, you know,and I have that in the energy
section as or I can't rememberwhat section it's in, maybe it's
in the industry section, but uhyou know, healthcare has grown
like crazy in the last fiveyears, really in the last 15
years.
And a lot of the you know,we've seen a lot of other
industries besides oil and gasgrow, whereas oil and gas has
(17:05):
shrunk, and so that the math onthat, you know, is basically
we're more diversified.
But even if oil and gas wouldhave stayed at the 2010 levels,
all non-oil and gas industrieshave grown pretty solidly.
And so by any measure, you canit's really hard to argue that
Mesa County is not morediversified away from that one.
(17:26):
Now, we're not diversified awayfrom healthcare.
But see, the difference is Imean, healthcare is a behemoth
here.
If if if there were swings inhealthcare like there were in
oil and gas, this town would bea mess.
You know, but uh fortunatelyour biggest industry now, which
is healthcare, is extremelystable.
So you don't see a lot oflayoffs, you know, COVID was as
(17:46):
crazy as it gets, you know, withhealthcare, and you saw a lot
of nurses uh, you know, you didsee a downturn in employment and
healthcare, but since about 22,maybe late 21, we've seen just
skyrocket employment andhealthcare.
Christi Reece (17:59):
I maybe should have mentioned at the beginning
of this that I uh dropped out ofcollege economics because I
thought it was really difficult.
Um, my teacher and I went toSouthern Methodist University
and my professor there um spokein terms of fast cars and um
cigars and bourbon, as iscommodities.
Sounds very Texas.
Yeah, it was it was um maybe Ineed to be more Texas.
(18:21):
But um uh do you think that umbecause the oil and gas uh was
shrinking in this area that theothers filled the void or would
they have grown anyway?
Nathan Perry (18:37):
I think they would have grown anyways.
Um don't get me wrong, I seethe effort that a lot of
commissioners and city counciland GJEP and the chamber and all
these different organizationsput in.
That's kind of what I washinting at earlier.
It's an interesting townbecause people care about
economic development, you know.
Other towns, other places, youknow, like bigger cities,
(18:59):
they're sick of growth.
You know, it's only the youknow, the the then if you talk
to anybody from Denver, it'slike, oh my gosh, it's so crazy.
Too big, yeah.
Why are all these people whyare there all these people?
Um but they can say thatbecause they haven't had the
type of downswing that MaceCounty experienced or the
Western Slope experienced, andyou realize, wow, we've got to
(19:20):
make something happen if thathappens again.
And uh I feel like that's kindof the mentality.
Christi Reece (19:25):
So let's talk about the future of the
different sectors and what jobsdo you see being uh, you know,
really big in growth in the next10, 20 years?
Nathan Perry (19:37):
Yeah, um, well, I think healthcare is gonna
continue to grow because there'sa rural healthcare funding
issue that's gonna hurt a lot ofour surrounding counties, and
not just in Colorado, but acrossthe nation.
And it's gonna push more of thehealthcare needs to the
healthcare centers and GrandJunction's a healthcare center.
So I think we're gonna see alot of growth in healthcare
continue.
Christi Reece (19:56):
Aaron Ross Powell That's gonna affect our
population as well, assumingthat some of these people from
the mountain towns and the ruralcommunities are gonna actually
move to healthcare centers asopposed to staying in the small
towns.
Nathan Perry (20:08):
Yeah, well, and that's that's the question.
You know, how responsive arepeople who live in these places
going to be to moving closer tothe health care?
It depends on their age anddepends on their health.
Um, you know, of course, MesaCounty skews more towards
retirees.
We have a big baby boompopulation in Mesa County
compared to the state ofColorado, which has a huge
millennial population.
Um so you know, the TaylorSwift album was a big deal in
(20:30):
Colorado, but not so much inMesa County.
Uh so you know, the age of ourpopulation also, and and the
fact that a lot of people retirehere.
You know, it's a great place toretire.
Um it's warmer, you've got ahealthcare center, uh, there are
a lot of people, you know, ofretiree age, um, their things to
(20:51):
do.
So um that's gonna put upwardpressure on health care, you
know, with that because when uhyou should know in real estate,
I mean, who are you selling mostof your homes to?
Christi Reece (21:02):
Well, a lot of retirees.
Right.
Yeah, and the um the priceshave continued to appreciate,
and uh even with um more houseson the market, we're not seeing
the median price go down.
Right.
And so it's just harder andharder for the young folks,
young families to come here.
Um hopefully we get someinterest rate reductions that
(21:24):
will help change that a littlebit.
But I think the uh apartment uhsituation has been really good,
and at least there's some umreasonable places for people to
stay, um, younger families andthings.
But of course, we believe inbuilding wealth and home
ownership, so we want to getthose people into homes, but
it's with the cost ofconstruction, it's getting
(21:45):
really hard to build anaffordable entry-level home.
Nathan Perry (21:49):
It's concerning, and it's you know, I I sound
like I I probably talk aboutthis too much, you know.
No, you don't, this is yourjob.
But um, I think it's one of ourbigger issues.
You know, we talk aboutpopulation growth.
Oh, why aren't young peoplehaving kids?
Why aren't they gettingmarried?
Well, it's because they don'thave the same opportunities.
Christi Reece (22:07):
They're scared to death.
I've got an 18-year-old and a20-year-old, and they think
there's no way I'll ever be ableto afford a home.
Nathan Perry (22:13):
That's right.
It's the same thing with mystudents.
Um, you know, we populationgrowth is one of the most
important issues in economics,so I talk about it a lot, and I
like to, you know, I I getaccess to all these young people
and I get to try and figure outwhat the trends are with
different generations.
And you know, it's when yougrow up in a house with the play
(22:34):
set in the back, you don't wantto start a family in an
apartment.
Now, lots of cultures havefamilies around.
Christi Reece (22:42):
Yes.
Even in the East Coast, on alot of the United States, and I
think that's something in theWest that we have to start
thinking about.
Nathan Perry (22:49):
But humans care about relative status.
You know, that's ingrained inour hindbrain.
And, you know, I I think that'sa holdup for a lot of young
people.
They're like, well, I'm notwhere I'm supposed to be to
where I'm supposed to be buyinga house yet.
And then the affordability, youknow, we're building a ton of
multifamily units, which isgreat, but it's not going to
build wealth.
(23:09):
You know, versus I I bought astarter home, you know, in 2005.
Um unfortunately I sold it in2010, so I didn't make any
equity.
But uh, you know, um that'swhat you're supposed to do.
You're supposed to find a anold crappy house and fix it up
when you're young and um youknow, you sell it and move on to
the next.
But if you don't get into thatfirst one, it's hard to hard to
(23:32):
do.
And uh interest rates aremaking it prohibitive for buyers
and sellers don't want to lowertheir price.
And um we're gonna need a lotmore inventory hitting the
market to force that price down.
You're starting to see a rise,but not it's still not a buyer's
market yet.
I think what's month supply ofinventory at in May side have to
have three, yeah.
(23:53):
So we need to get to five orsix for the price to fall.
Yeah.
And we're not there yet.
Christi Reece (23:59):
Agree.
Um, it occurs to me thatthere's a lot of psychology in
economics.
Nathan Perry (24:06):
Yes.
Isn't there?
Yeah.
Christi Reece (24:08):
It's not just numbers.
Nathan Perry (24:10):
No, um, there's a lot of numbers though.
Uh so many numbers.
Uh yeah, I think you know,economics is trying to figure
out how humans behave togetherand what the outcomes of that
collective behavior mean for ourstandard of living, you know.
And so you can't just assumethat everybody acts a certain
(24:34):
way and that you're going to seecertain outcomes over time.
You know, one thing I emphasizein my classes is what we call
institutions.
And that's culture, that can bereligion, that can be
government, that can be, youknow, certain cultural trends
and intergenerational trends.
And um, you know, millennialsare and institutions shape
(24:54):
economics, but then economicsshape institutions and behavior.
So for instance, you know, in2010, the millennials were had a
10% unemployment rate.
They all hit the job market andthey couldn't find work.
Christi Reece (25:07):
So what did so what did they do?
Nathan Perry (25:08):
Well, they delayed starting families, right?
They did not get married, theydid not buy housing, they got
into pub culture.
So IPA beer became really coolwith the millennials, you know,
drinking, millennials drank offthe charts compared to other
generations.
Christi Reece (25:23):
I was just reading about the craft brewer
breweries um all going out ofbusiness now.
So many of them.
Nathan Perry (25:29):
Because the millennials are too old to drink
all the time because they haveresponsibilities now, but Gen Z
doesn't drink.
Christi Reece (25:35):
Yeah.
Nathan Perry (25:36):
And so you can see this with um with stock prices
of alcohol, you know.
And so Gen Z is different.
They're very entrepreneurial,you know, they're very concerned
about housing, they're afraidof each other because of the
culture wars.
And uh, you know, I'm I I Ilike Gen Z a lot, but they, you
(25:58):
know, we'll see what happenswith them.
Yeah.
Christi Reece (26:01):
So um let's circle back to other job uh
opportunities for Mesa Countyand Western Colorado.
Um pretty different in otherregions of uh Western Colorado
because a lot of those towns aretourist economies, right?
Nathan Perry (26:19):
Yeah, I mean we have a lot of tourism here.
Um, but uh you know, becausewe're bigger, it doesn't show up
as much as say if you, youknow, are in Vail, where tourism
is like a huge thing.
Um so we have a good sizetourism industry here.
I mean, we have magnificenttrails, there's tons of public
(26:39):
land, so it definitely makes adifference here.
Christi Reece (26:41):
Um and I do think that could be a growing sector
for us because uh from arealtor's perspective, we feel
like we're being discovered allthe time.
You know, we go through thesesurges where we get phone calls
from people going, man, I I'venever heard of Grand Junction,
and I just read about it, and Iwant to come there, and and we
see surges of growth and it getsexciting, and then I feel like
(27:03):
it settles down a little bit,and then it comes again in these
kind of waves, and I feel likethere's this constant um uh
discovering of Grand Junction,which is kind of cool.
Nathan Perry (27:14):
Yeah.
Um, well, you know, we're stillmore affordable than the front
range.
And this isn't, you know, theWest in general is just insane.
You know, the millennials flockto Colorado, Utah, Idaho,
Nevada, Arizona, and all ofthose states are unaffordable
now.
But in but Grand Junction inColorado, we're still cheaper
(27:36):
than other places.
And so if we can provide jobopportunities, then that's a
great settling point for youngpeople who maybe want to start
families.
So yeah, and so you know,healthcare is a big one.
I think um heavy and lightindustry is uh uh is great for
this town, especially with thefederal government um, you know,
(27:59):
emphasis on reshoring um supplychains.
I think there are someopportunities there.
You know, curtis at GGPs on ontop of who they're recruiting,
it's it's hard for me to to kindof to say what industries are
my favorite, but those are thoseare two that I think are
universally liked.
Christi Reece (28:17):
So and we have still a lot of land to develop
in this community.
You know, I grew up in LakeCity.
Yeah, and um the population isnever gonna get very big there
because there is just is not theuh private land to be
developed.
And that's a way in a lot ofthe smaller towns.
Nathan Perry (28:36):
Right.
Uh I mean if you go north,there's a ton of development.
It's crazy.
Um even up I was up in theridge, I went to the ridges 360,
or what's that called?
I went to the Prada.
Yeah, Red Land.
Okay, sorry.
Um I'm like, oh my gosh, Ididn't even know that this space
existed.
Christi Reece (28:51):
You know, 660 acres right in the middle of the
Redlands.
Nathan Perry (28:55):
I mean, we were a couple ridges over up in the
ridges, and uh I was I wassurprised.
So, you know, we still arecapped by um federal land around
us.
So it's you know, what is it,73% public land in Mace County,
but we still, you know, there'sstill room to expand.
Um, you know, hopefully we cando it in a way that doesn't ruin
(29:17):
the uh the charm of the place.
That's always the problem withrural economic development is
people move here, you know, tbecause they like the charm, but
then more people move here andthen some of the charm goes
away.
So how do you how do youbalance that?
It it's hard as an economistbecause um you know you want to
(29:37):
see growth because it lifts upeverybody's standard of living.
And uh and so how how do you dothat, but still keep the small
town feel?
One thing I like about livingin a smaller city is you know,
my is what I tell people iseverything's 15 minutes away
here.
You know, versus when I livedin Salt Lake, it was a 45 minute
drive to the University ofUtah, you know, it was 30
(30:00):
minutes to American Express.
Oh boy, you you should youleave at five o'clock.
I mean, who knows how long it'sgonna be?
Depends if there's an accident.
And the same thing in Denver,you know.
Christi Reece (30:08):
Um there's an accident here, you know about
it.
Yeah, you can go around itpretty easily.
Nathan Perry (30:13):
Yeah, I've noticed the last 10 years there's a
little bit more traffic onPatterson these days.
You know, so I'm like, oh, dowe have rush hour now?
Is that a thing here?
I so so how how to balancethose things is tough, I think.
Um but overall for this town, Ithink that having more economic
opportunities is good.
Yeah.
Christi Reece (30:34):
A lot of your studies uh revolve around
population too, growth anddecline and and the trends that
you're seeing.
Can you talk a little bit aboutwhat you're seeing in Grand
Junction and especially the umthe birth rates?
Nathan Perry (30:46):
Yeah.
So um, you know, Colorado ingeneral kind of has a
demographic problem.
The we're mostly millennial,the millennials didn't have a
lot of kids, and so we're kindof uh aging without young people
to come in and replace.
Um, you know, we call it thedemographic cliff in academia,
(31:06):
where uh, you know, 2026, 18years after the Great Recession,
there's uh there's gonna be adrop in just the number of
18-year-olds.
And um so Mesa County countersuh a lower birth rate um with a
high migration rate.
So we see a ton of retireesmove here, which by the way,
(31:30):
generally have money andstabilize the economy.
Um so not only are we you knowbuilding a lot of different
industries that are you knowhealthcare is fairly recession
proof.
Um in terms of employment.
I know they lose a lot of moneywhen there's recessions, but
you know, in terms ofemployment, um they you know you
don't generally see a lot oflayoffs.
(31:52):
Um but uh you know retireesthey just keep spending unless
there's inflation.
And so we saw the inflation hithurt retirees.
Uh but generally speaking,retirees also help to stabilize
the economy.
And so in a weird twist offate, you know, Grand Junction I
think is set up to be pretty uminsulated from what we might
(32:16):
see with national businesscycles.
But more than other places.
Christi Reece (32:20):
How has the is there uh data about the average
age of our resident and how hasthat changed over the last 25
years?
Nathan Perry (32:28):
It's pretty it stayed fairly consistent.
We're we're always high in thethe older age group, you know,
60s, um, what you think of thebaby boomer group right now, you
know, whatever that was 25years ago.
Um so it's just because of theretirees, whereas we skew uh
lower with younger generations,especially millennials.
(32:49):
But whereas you if you look atDenver, it's just this huge
spike is a ton of millennials inDenver.
That's the millennial city,it's like their capital.
Christi Reece (32:57):
So and what are some of the dangers of this kind
of aging population?
Um you said retirees we tend tohave a little bit more stable
economy, but let's talk aboutschools and what's happening
there.
And how does that affect oureconomy?
Nathan Perry (33:12):
Yeah, well, you know, we've seen some schools
shut down, and um this is thisis an issue not just in Mesa
County, you know, this is anissue across the nation.
The birth rates have fallen.
You know, in Colorado they'vefallen, even in my home state of
Utah, which is known for highbirth rates, it's fallen.
Big families and that's right,and but people can't afford it.
Christi Reece (33:32):
And so um You wouldn't know if you go to the
Parade of Homes out there.
Unbelievable, it'smind-blowing.
Nathan Perry (33:39):
Yeah, it it really is.
Um yeah.
In fact, I just made thatcomment to my wife when we were
at the Grand Junction ParadeHome.
The kids were really impressed.
They're like, wow, these aremansions.
I'm like, you know, let's go tothe Pareto Homes in Denver or
Salt Lake, and you'll you'll seecastles.
People have too much of it.
St.
George.
Christi Reece (33:56):
It's crazy.
Yeah.
Nathan Perry (33:57):
But um But the the the population growth is a is a
national issue.
I mean, it's become a bitpoliticized as everything in
this world, unfortunately, butyou know, we're not at
replacement rate.
You need two people for everytwo adults, and we're not
meeting that standard.
And so you have a couple ofoptions from an economic
perspective when you're not uh,you know, at that rate.
(34:22):
Uh you can import people, soyou can have immigration, or you
can you can do what Elon'sdoing and you can build robots.
Um, you know, I that's kind ofa joke, but it's kind of
serious.
Um, that's what Japan's done.
So Japan has had uh apopulation that has not replaced
itself for quite some time.
So how have they been able toproduce stuff?
(34:45):
Well, they're extremely goodwith robotics and technology
because they don't they can'tbring in a bunch of cheap
workers to do work in factories,they have to have robotics.
And so, you know, the UnitedStates globally is kind of in a
good position because if we needmore people, it's easy to
import people.
(35:06):
Now, I know immigration'spolitical, definitely not going
to get into that, but justthinking in terms of purely
labor supply, if we had a majorlabor supply issue, you know, we
could solve that fairlyquickly.
Now there might be some cost tothat, some political turmoil,
but generally speaking, youknow, we can bring people in.
Versus other parts of the worldwhere that's a lot more
(35:26):
difficult.
You know, Japan's an island.
Um they could try and importpeople, but it it's it's more
complicated.
Christi Reece (35:33):
Oh, interesting.
Nathan Perry (35:34):
But if you don't have more people, then you have
to focus more on technology toproduce stuff.
And um, you know, uh there'sbeen this crazy shift in the
last two years.
You know, five years ago, theargument the argument was we
need more people in the UnitedStates.
And now I'm looking at Elon'sOptimus robots and I'm thinking,
you know, do we need more?
I mean, these robots mightproduce we are in an interesting
(35:58):
world.
I don't know what's gonnahappen.
But if robots can legitimatelytake a lot of the production
process out of the hands ofhumans, you know, I think it
changes the growth um argumentfor needing more people.
So I don't I don't know howit's gonna play out.
I'm watching with fascinationwhatever's put here.
Christi Reece (36:20):
And it's changing so quickly.
Nathan Perry (36:21):
All I know is I'm buying one of those robots
immediately.
Christi Reece (36:24):
Okay.
Nathan Perry (36:24):
It's gonna do my dishes and uh full laundry, and
I'm gonna have it punish my kidsso I don't have to deal with
it.
Christi Reece (36:31):
Perfect.
I want to talk a little bitabout um CMU and uh tell us what
courses you teach and and whatyou love about teaching uh
college kids.
Nathan Perry (36:44):
Yeah, well, um I teach a lot of classes.
I used to teach a lot more.
I've kind of got it narroweddown these days.
I teach intermediatemacroeconomics and I teach money
and banking, and I sometimesteach international economics.
We're running that again in thespring because it's very
topical right now.
And then I teach this classcalled Econometrics, which is uh
(37:04):
fancy economics and statisticsclass.
That's how I did that realtorstudy with the home amenities,
and and then I teach introclasses.
Christi Reece (37:14):
And uh that still sounds like a lot, Nathan.
Nathan Perry (37:16):
It it is.
Uh it's four classes asemester, but uh, you know, I've
been doing it a long time, andum, you know, I do so much other
work that a lot of the economicstuff is just in my head.
Christi Reece (37:29):
And so and it begins to cross over.
You use the data and that'sexactly it.
Nathan Perry (37:34):
You know, um, you know, a lot of the work I do
ends up in the classroom, and Itell stories about, you know,
writing these newsletters, Ishow the newsletters, or I'll
pull up a study.
We we use some of my data setsfrom some of like the house
price study, you know, we usethat in my econometrics class.
And um so you know, what do Ilike about teaching?
(37:56):
You know, as I get older, Ifeel like it keeps me young.
You know, it's weird to say,but you know, my kids keep me
young, but they're they'relittle.
Like college kids are uhadults, but they're college
kids, you know.
And so um and so it's justinteresting to see what's going
on in their lives and you knowto know what's going on.
(38:16):
For instance, um, you know, I'mgonna make fun of the
millennials a little bit morehere.
So, you know, they don't likeTaylor Swift.
Uh you know, they're justthey've moved on, Gen Z, you
know, it's just not for them.
And uh and I wouldn't haveknown that, you know, because
I'm technically a millennial.
And so that's all I hear frompeople.
But you know, you you kind ofsee when the trends change and
(38:39):
how how culture's changing.
Um yeah, you know, you seewhere you get outdated, I'll
I'll have a reference tosomething, and the students will
be like, what?
I'm like, oh, that was too manyyears ago.
You have no idea what I'mtalking about, you know.
Because I started teaching whenI was this is insane to say,
but I mean I taught my firstclass when I was 23 or 24 years
(39:00):
old.
Wow.
You know, my second year ofgrad school, I started way too
young.
But uh, you know, so I waspeers at the time and they
understood all my references,you know.
Right.
Now that I'm in my 40s, I haveto actually think about these
things, you know.
I can't I make a terminatorreference uh about robots.
Christi Reece (39:18):
How many kids are gonna have to understand?
Nathan Perry (39:20):
Who knows what I'm talking about?
And then I gotta come up withsomething else that's you know
not from the 80s.
So, you know, it forces me toand I go home and I'll ask my
son who's a teenager.
Christi Reece (39:30):
I'm like, okay, you know Do you know what this
is?
Nathan Perry (39:32):
Yeah, who's this guy on YouTube?
Or who's someone I can yeah?
It's so it's uh I don't know,there are a lot of things I like
about it.
I like getting up in front ofpeople, I like public speaking,
you know, and I think teachingis just kind of a mini form of
public speaking.
Christi Reece (39:47):
Well, you do a great job.
Everything I've ever attendedthat you've presented to, I I
think has been fantastic, andyou have everybody in the palm
of your hands.
Nathan Perry (39:56):
Well, thank you.
I appreciate that.
I sure enjoy it.
And you know, I I'm good atthat stuff because I've been
teaching for so long.
You know, I know how to toywith the audience and kind of
you know keep them awake.
Christi Reece (40:08):
Yeah.
And uh yeah, from teaching,you've got to keep those
teenagers awake.
But uh all the adults havesleep issues now too, right?
That's right.
Nathan Perry (40:18):
Yeah.
Well, you know, we've all gotsleep issues, I think.
Uh, but yeah.
Christi Reece (40:23):
Um I kind of want to wrap up with um just some uh
advice and outlook for smallbusiness owners.
I'm a small business owner uhhere in Mesa County.
What do I need to be thinkingabout and paying attention to?
And um, as I was mentioning, II was reading the article about
a lot of craft breweries uhreally having a hard time and a
lot of them going bankruptacross the country now.
(40:44):
And um was reading about onethat was shutting down, and and
they said, you know, we justwere we saw unlimited potential
and we weren't paying enoughattention to certain data points
to show us what was reallyhappening in the industry.
Uh we're working on passion.
So as as a small businessowner, uh what kind of advice
can you give folks here?
Nathan Perry (41:06):
Yeah, well, I think small business is the
place to be right now.
You know, you're seeing a lotof bigger corporations.
It's a race to implement AI,which is great if you're gonna,
you know, if you have a job at acorporation, but um what we're
seeing is uh you know, we'reseeing eight 16 to 24 year olds
have an 11% unemployment rateright now.
(41:27):
Well, well, why is that?
Well, that's because AI iseliminating a lot of entry-level
positions.
And so I I don't think it'sgonna stay that high forever.
I think this is just a youknow, people are figuring out
how to employ.
It's a transition.
It's a transition.
Um and so, you know, one thingI try to work with my students
on is you know, yeah, you wantto get a job and get experience,
(41:50):
but you can also start your ownbusiness, you know, and you can
actually buy your own business.
There are businesses for sale,especially if you go to a bigger
city.
And there are a lot of retiringbaby boomers who would love to
sell you that business and teachyou how to run it.
And um and so that's what wetry to do with our business
program is you know, you takeall sorts of classes, accounting
(42:10):
and finance and marketing andyou know, management, so you
have all those skills.
So um so I like the smallbusiness space economically.
Obviously, it's a huge jobcreator.
Um, but if I were to giveadvice to small business owners,
it would be, you know, startand think how you can implement
AI into a lot of your processes.
(42:31):
It's uh it's a crazy tool, andit's getting smarter weekly.
It's actually starting to scareme.
So I can do some I can buildsome crazy models in AI.
And not all small businessesneed you know that type of
stuff, but you can you canprogram it for some very basic
tasks.
And uh that's gonna be a bigproductivity driver for um a lot
(42:56):
of small businesses.
So I think that's kind of thebig trend right now.
Christi Reece (43:00):
I was just at uh we had realtor day today um with
some speakers, and one wasfocusing on AI, and he put up a
slide that said, I want a voteof everybody in the room.
Do you think that AI is goingto um cause job loss, uh, and a
break-even or job creation?
And it was about, you know, athird for each group.
(43:23):
But what what's your what'syour thoughts on that?
Do you think it's uh a jobcreator in the end after the
transition?
Nathan Perry (43:29):
Yeah, you know, this is a hundreds of year old
debate between Adam Smith andKarl Marx.
You know, Adam Smith arguedthat capital and labor are
complements, that when you havenew technology and new
inventions that can do things,that that frees up resources
that then those workers will gointo.
(43:49):
And he's been right, you know,since he made the argument.
And then you have Marx thatsaid, listen, capital and labor
are substitutes.
And if you know AI is going toreplace all of us and we're
gonna have too many peopleunemployed, and we're going to
need a universal basic income.
You know, this comes up everytechnological cycle.
(44:11):
And so far, you know, AdamSmith is, I don't know, what the
record, 12 and oh?
I don't know.
I'm just making that up.
You know, I don't think we'reat the point where robots and AI
are going to take all of ourjobs yet.
The question is, is how is thisgonna enhance productivity so
other people and then what arethose other people gonna move
(44:31):
towards?
You know, what's gonna be thenew industry where we employ the
labor force?
Christi Reece (44:34):
Trevor Burrus, Jr.
But who could have uhenvisioned the money that people
are making on social media justas influencers?
I mean, what a crazy career.
Nathan Perry (44:46):
It is a crazy career.
And I don't like it becausethen my kids think that they can
be social media influences, butthen I see how much money the
social media influences I thinkmake, and I think, man, should I
teach my kids to be so funny?
Christi Reece (44:58):
I know.
Nathan Perry (44:59):
No, just kidding.
But uh yeah, it's I mean you'reright.
Um and you you just don't knowwhat's gonna you don't know
what's gonna hit, you know.
And I it's hard for me topredict, too.
Christi Reece (45:12):
Yeah.
Nathan Perry (45:13):
I just have no idea where this is gonna go.
Christi Reece (45:15):
As much data as you have in your head.
Nathan Perry (45:16):
You know, I I do a lot of reading and um I don't
know.
You know, we're have an agingpopulation, are those people
gonna move into healthcare?
That's something that canhappen.
Are uh are we gonna see a lotmore robotics built and we'll
need to move people intofactories or to be engineers to
build the robots?
I don't know.
Christi Reece (45:36):
Yeah.
Nathan Perry (45:37):
Um interesting things to think about.
You know, by the end of ourlives, you know, we could have
AI-powered robot assistants.
Isn't that crazy to thinkabout?
Christi Reece (45:49):
So if you're willing, uh what advice do you
give to your teenager about whatare some good career paths for
you?
Yeah, considering AI and what'shappening.
Nathan Perry (46:01):
Sure.
Well, you know, um and notsocial media influencer.
Yeah, well, you know, you cando that on the side.
That can be their side gig.
And then I'll be happy aboutit.
Um Right.
Christi Reece (46:11):
If they're in finance and they we have a big
following because of theirfinancial knowledge, great.
Nathan Perry (46:15):
Yeah.
Well, you know, I love uh I Istill think business, you know,
a general business skill set isstill important because robotics
and AI can't replace a lot ofthe things that small businesses
do.
And I think that's where a lotof the employment growth is
going to be.
You know, if you're at a massscale, I worry about corporate
employment, certain roles, notall roles, just certain roles.
(46:37):
But small businesses generally,they're you know, they're gonna
employ AI and technology insmaller ways that may require
more people to employ them.
And um so you know, and I thisis why I tell my this is why
I've been emphasizing businessownership and thinking about
business, because I I just thinkthat's that's a great path.
(46:58):
Um I love engineering.
I think um, you know, I thinkthe world needs more engineers.
Um anything in the healthsciences I think is fantastic.
Uh the trades are great.
You know, I grew up in a tradesfamily, electrician, plumber,
welders, you know, making goodmoney right now.
Christi Reece (47:16):
Yeah, it seems like there's a lot of uh growth
potential in those industries.
Nathan Perry (47:20):
Yeah, so you know, we haven't seen that much, you
know.
AI hasn't destroyed any sort ofeducation paths quite yet, I
don't think.
Um I I still think there'sdemand for things once we get
over this kind of ress we're ina labor market recession right
now, which makes it a little bittough to talk about it this
(47:40):
second.
But um the labor marketrecession won't last.
Uh we're not in a normalrecession, GDP's strong, but the
labor market is, you know, ifyou get unemployed, um it's one
of the worst times to look for ajob since 2013, actually.
Christi Reece (47:54):
Wow.
Nathan Perry (47:54):
And um but but not very many people are getting
fired, but then nobody's gettinghired.
That's that's the labor marketright now, so it's very strange.
So let's see, I said business,engineering, health, care, and
trades.
I'd say those would be my topfour.
Christi Reece (48:11):
Okay, awesome.
Yeah, I hope people are takingnote of this, especially
teenagers.
Nathan Perry (48:16):
Yeah.
Christi Reece (48:17):
Nathan, it's been a real pleasure.
I thank you for taking time outof your busy schedule to talk
with us, and I hope we get lotsof listeners.
I think it's just umfascinating, and I appreciate
all the work that you do, whichreally helps support economic
growth in our region.
Nathan Perry (48:30):
Well, thank you.
I appreciate having me.
It was a lot of fun.
And yeah, if you uh if youdon't don't mind me telling
people where the newsletters areat, you can go to CMU's website
and just type in economiccenter or economic newsletter
and uh should pop up and you cansign up for any of the counties
uh that I cover.
So thanks.
Christi Reece (48:48):
Awesome.
I actually considering umenrolling at CMU to take some of
your classes.
I think it'd be great if I canfinish an economics class.
Nathan Perry (48:56):
I'm more interesting than the other
economists.
Christi Reece (48:58):
I bet you are.
Yeah.
Thank you again.
This has been Christi Reecewith Nathan Perry for the Full
Circle Podcast, and we'll seeyou next time.
Thanks.
Thanks for listening.
This is Christi Reece signingout from the Full Circle
Podcast.
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