Stress-Test Your Investment Like a Pro: Tools & Strategies You Need Now | Ep 51

(Watch the YouTube video of this episode here)

In this episode, we explore the intricacies of passive real estate investing, emphasizing the importance of stress-testing deals. We discuss how to identify potential risks, model various scenarios, and manage overconfidence. The conversation covers short-term micro variables and long-term macroeconomic factors, including technological advancements, social dynamics, and regulatory risks.

// Key Moments

• 00:00 Intro
• 01:49 Exploring Extreme Circumstances in Real Estate
• 04:44 Key Metrics in Real Estate Investments
• 09:53 Monte Carlo Simulation in Real Estate
• 13:46 Balancing Model Complexity
• 16:59 Technological Advancements and Their Impact
• 19:48 Regulatory Risks and Social Dynamics
• 24:17 Black Swan Events and Productive Paranoia

//Key Lessons

1. Monte Carlo isn't just a fancy vacation spot: Running thousands of simulations with varying variables like costs, rents, or sale prices can help you see the range of possible outcomes and know if your plan has wiggle room—or a breaking point.
2. Plan like a pessimist, act like an optimist: The best investors aren’t scared of uncertainty; they plan for it. Ask yourself, “What could go wrong?” and then design a backup plan to keep your investment afloat.
3. Sometimes, you have to leave the garage unfinished: Stress testing may reveal areas to cut back when costs spiral. Knowing when to pivot is just as important as knowing when to hold steady.
4. Ignore black swans at your peril: Low-probability, high-impact events—natural disasters, regulatory shifts, or even rogue property managers—can sink your investment. Productive paranoia helps you prepare for the unthinkable.
5. Beware the AI wildcard: Technological advancements, like generative AI, can drastically shift industries. Think about how emerging tech could impact your business or investments over the next 10-20 years.

// Let's build your wealth and improve housing, together.

I spent 12 years as a data scientist at HP and purchased $5M worth of real estate over 15 years using my own money. Now, I'm partnering with busy professionals to diversify their investments and generate passive income through real estate syndications and short-term flips—without dealing with tenants, toilets, or tantrums.

At Furlo Capital, we believe real estate isn't just a transaction; it's a partnership. Our value-add approach creates win-win situations where residents thrive, and investors build wealth. We're not just in this to make money—we want to make a difference.

If you're ready to diversify from stock market volatility and want reliable, steady returns, let's build your wealth and improve housing, together.

Want to dive deeper into my investing thesis and strategy?

👉 Learn more: https://furlo.com

Curious about the critical questions to ask before investing?

👉 Get my 196-question due diligence vault: https://furlo.com/good-deals-only-ebook

// Disclaimer

Please note that investing in private placement securities entails a high degree of risk, including illiquidity of the investment and loss of principal. Please refer to the subscription agreement for a discussion of risk factors.