Hurricane History and Resilient Futures: Insights with Dr. Hal Needham

Watch with subtitles on YouTube: 
https://youtu.be/-NqYMZiQ2Ww

Ever wondered how hurricanes have shaped the Texas Gulf Coast and our modern-day preparedness strategies? Join us as we sit down with the legendary Dr. Hal Needham, aka Hurricane Hal, and uncover the fierce history of storms from the catastrophic 1900 Galveston hurricane to modern-day challenges. You'll gain insights into how technological advancements, such as Dan Rather's pioneering coverage during Hurricane Carla, have revolutionized hurricane tracking and how engineering marvels like Galveston's seawall have stood the test of time.

Dr. Needham takes us through a fascinating journey, highlighting how historical storms have informed present-day mitigation strategies and how climate change is altering hurricane characteristics. We delve into the complex dynamics of rapidly intensifying hurricanes and the implications for evacuation plans in vulnerable areas like the Houston-Galveston corridor. Learn about the innovative Fortified Project by Smart Home America and how resilient building practices are becoming essential in combating coastal flooding.

We wrap up with inspiring stories of resilience from both local and international communities, drawing lessons from extreme weather events worldwide. Dr. Needham shares his vision for Galveston's future, emphasizing the city's potential to lead in flood resiliency and technological innovation. This episode is packed with valuable information, from historical engineering feats to modern flood data analysis, ensuring you walk away with a comprehensive understanding of hurricane impacts and the forward-thinking strategies necessary for disaster preparedness.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:03):
Here is Dan Rather speaking directly from Galveston
.
If evacuation of all islandsand low coastal areas along
Louisiana and the upper andcentral Texas coast has not been
completed, evacuation should behastened before it is too late.

Speaker 2 (00:18):
What the 1900 storm found?
It found the second wealthiestcity per capita in the US, but
they had never seen anythinglike a direct hit from a storm
like the 1900 storm.
Dating winds were around 120miles an hour.
The reason it's the deadliestdisaster in US history Pushed
this almost 16-foot wall ofseawater across the island.

Speaker 3 (00:36):
You mentioned something the surprise hurricane
of 1943.

Speaker 2 (00:39):
The US government decided they're never going to
censor critical hurricanewarning information again.

Speaker 3 (00:46):
Welcome to another episode of Galveston Unscripted.
In this episode today I sitdown with Dr Hal Needham, also
known as Hurricane Hal.
First off, I would like tothank the Rosenberg Library for
allowing me to host this liveevent.
The turnout was overwhelmingand demonstrated everyone's
shared interest in history andnatural disasters.
Just a heads up this episode isa live recording at the

(01:09):
Rosenberg Library and we were ina huge room with a lot of
reverb, so the audio is notideal.
If you are listening on thepodcast feed, you might want to
head on over to YouTube andcheck out the video there.
I've added tons of visuals andthe audio isn't that bad, but I
have added subtitles just incase.

(01:29):
This interview with Dr HurricaneHal is a very enlightening
conversation of how hurricaneshave affected the Texas coast
over the past 124 years and ourunderstanding and accumulation
of innovative measures over timeto help protect ourselves from
hurricanes and natural disastershere on the Gulf Coast.
This interview was part of theRosenberg Library Conversation

(01:50):
series that I held last year,but I held off on releasing this
episode until closer toSeptember 8th.
And here we are, just two weeksaway from the anniversary of
the 1900 storm.
124 years ago, dr HurricaneHowell lays out some wonderful
explanations and gives us someinsight into almost every major
hurricane from 1900 to 2023.

(02:13):
Our focus of this discussionwas the 1900 storm that
devastated Galveston Island, thelessons learned from it and how
our understanding andpreparedness for hurricanes has
evolved over the past century.
We discussed the heroic effortsit took to rebuild Galveston
and the impressive engineeringfeats that followed.
And, of course, dr Hal Needham,being a renowned climate
scientist, explains theremarkable advancements in

(02:35):
technology since 1900.
And he even highlights somegroundbreaking research,
spearheaded by experts in theirfield, to further mitigate the
impact of these naturaldisasters.
And be sure to stick around forthe Q&A at the very end, so you
do not want to miss thisepisode.
And if you know somebody wholives on the Gulf Coast and that
would enjoy this conversationand the information therein, be

(02:57):
sure to share this episode.
It's available on all podcastplatforms and YouTube.
If you live on the Texas GulfCoast, chances are you've seen
Hurricane Hal's tropical weatherupdates on social media.
Without further ado, Dr HalNeedham recorded at our live
event at the Rosenberg LibraryWelcome to Galveston.
Unscripted.

Speaker 4 (03:20):
This is Hurricane Hal with your tropical weather
update.
Morning everybody.
This is Hurricane Hal live fromGalveston Beach.
Hurricane Hal here on theGeorgia-South Carolina border.
This is Hurricane Hal live fromJacksonville, north Carolina,
with an update live fromColumbia, south Carolina.
Hurricane Hal here live fromGalveston Beach with your
tropical weather update.

Speaker 3 (03:39):
Dr Hal Needham is an extreme weather and disaster
scientist with 15 yearsexperience conducting
data-driven risk analysis fordisaster-prone communities.
He specializes in sciencecommunication to both
professional scientists and thepublic and hosts the GeoTrek
podcast, the number one podcastin natural disasters.
An international expert oncoastal flooding and directs the
USURGE project, which providesthe first comprehensive coastal

(04:01):
flood data for the United States, australia, the Philippines,
bangladesh and India.
He is lead scientist for floodinformation systems, where he
develops address-based floodrisk tools.
Dr Howell, thank you so muchfor joining me.
All right, so a couple things Iwanted to kind of talk about
and cover today the 1900 storm,a little bit of history and

(04:23):
things we've learned from the1900 storm and storms we've had
over the past 123 years alongthe Gulf Coast that lead us to
how we essentially protectourselves from hurricanes today.
Let's dive right into it.
Let's talk about the 1900 storm.
Can you tell us a little bitabout that?
I'm sure a lot of people knowabout it because you've got this
little background on the 1900storm.

Speaker 2 (04:43):
Yeah sure I mean part of the background is what the
1900 storm found.
They found the secondwealthiest city per capita in
the US.
Galveston was a very vibrant,prosperous city, known around
the world, and they knew thatthey had a hurricane problem.
They had been hit by hurricanesbefore, not only from the winds
but from storm surge tosaltwater flooding.
Back then they called themoverflows and they were familiar
with this, but they had neverseen anything like a direct hit

(05:05):
from a storm like the 1900 storm.
It officially goes down reallyas a Category 4 hurricane that
hit the Texas coast here inGalveston.
Sustained winds were around 120miles an hour.
But the really deadly part thereason it's the deadliest
disaster in US history it pushedthis almost 16-foot wall of
seawater across the island andif you've never seen a storm
surge, it's like a raging riverthat just tore up much, I should

(05:29):
say most of Galveston.
I think a lot of the peoplethat died the 16,000 people that
died on the island mostly weretravelers from the storm surge.

Speaker 3 (05:37):
A lot of people ask why didn't anybody know that the
storm was going to hitGalveston?

Speaker 2 (05:49):
Yeah, it's a great question For mean.
For one, we can take a bird'seye view of the Texas coast in
that time in history.
There were big hurricanes thathit down the coast in 1875 and
1886.
There was a smaller communitycalled Indianola, not as big as
Galveston, I think, around 5,000people, but still a vibrant
city.
When you go to Central and WestTexas, a lot of the immigrants
that went there came throughIndianola.
A lot of the materials that wereimported into the US came
through Indianola.
Indianola was hit directly bythese storms in 1875 and 1886.

(06:12):
You can go down today toMatagorda Bay and see the steps
to the old Indianola courthousethat are still in the bay.
Indianola doesn't exist anymore.
It's a ghost town and so,interestingly, both of those
hurricanes flooded Galvestonsubstantially.
In fact the 1886 one put aboutnine feet of storm surge into
Galveston.
It would have flooded most ofGalveston Island.

(06:32):
Galveston homes were washedaway in 1886.
And so people started reallytalking after that.
You know we really possiblyneed a seawall, we need some
kind of protection.
I think there was an urgency toit.
But once you go a few yearswith weather like today where
it's 82 degrees and sunny, youstart forgetting about
hurricanes.
So on the bird's eye viewpicture, it was known that there

(06:54):
was this vulnerability tohurricanes, for different
reasons.
I think they felt likeGalveston would be protected and
not really damaged.
They had seen the fringe ofhurricanes before but never
really saw a direct hit likethey did from the 1900 storm.

Speaker 3 (07:08):
As you read the book Isaac's Storm and talk about the
man Isaac Klein, who was thechief of the National Weather
Bureau here in Galveston, he didnot receive, or he received a
report that there could be astorm in the Gulf of Mexico, but
they really weren't sure.
I know there was an issue withCuban relations as well.

Speaker 2 (07:29):
Yeah.
So this is coming right just onthe heels of the
Spanish-American War, wherethere's a lot of tension between
some of the Spanish-speakingareas in the US.
And so the 1930s storm actuallypassed very near or over Cuba.
And so the Cubans have a longhistory of not only forecasting
but communicating abouthurricanes.
They really understand thehurricane science, and so their
scientists and theirmeteorologists thought that this
, based on the wind and thecirculation that they were

(07:49):
seeing in Cuba, they thoughtthis storm was going into the
Gulf.
So they notified the US and letthem know that At that time the
US weather here was verycentralized and so everything
had to go through Washington DC.
There was thought that there wasprobably a hurricane out there
somewhere the best guess is thatit's going up the eastern
seaboard and so no one quiteknew.

(08:09):
They knew there was probably astorm somewhere, but no one
quite knew what was going on orthat this massive, major
hurricane had developed andstrengthened in the Gulf of
Mexico.
Really, one of the bigtechnologies that's there today,
that wasn't there at the timeand this really developed, say
in the 1910s, was ship-to-shorewireless communication.
When the 1900 storm hit, reallywe had instruments that could

(08:34):
record the weather on land andwe had telegraph to communicate
between land-based cities.
But there was no way tocommunicate.
If you were a ship in themiddle of the Gulf of Mexico,
that you're observing winds 90miles an hour, that wireless
technology wasn't out there foranother maybe 10 to 15 years.
So a lot of our cities reallywere blindsided by a big storm
coming in from the coast.
Could you tell us a little bitabout?

Speaker 3 (08:54):
Isaac Klein.

Speaker 2 (08:55):
Sure, he's originally from Tennessee.
He came here well before the1900 storm.
He was a chief meteorologist.
Something interesting aboutGalveston we have the weather
bureau came here in 1871.
So we have the longestcontinuous weather records west
of the Mississippi River.
So we have over 150 years ofcontinuous weather records.
Weather bureau was here.
They were doing great work.

(09:15):
They were making observations,telegraphing those in Washington
DC so we could have nationalweather maps.
So they definitely had apresence here.
They were doing a lot offorecasting for maritime
businesses, for agriculture forall kinds of things like that.
Dr Isaac Klein isawell-respected and well-known
scientist.
He published a lot.
He actually did a lot ofstudies as well in tropical

(09:36):
medicine at UTMB.
Actually I was like, oh wow hewas like okay, I have the degree
in meteorology.
Now I, you know, medical doctorand he was a very fascinating
person, very well-educated anddiverse, and he was the chief
meteorologist here that hisbrother Joseph also worked at
their U S weather bureau at thetime of the 1900 storm.
They were located in the Weaveybuilding, 23rd and market on

(09:57):
the third floor of the weatherinstruments on roof and a lot of
those weather instruments werevery similar to what we find
today and there's temperatureand rain and wind and humidity.
I think the big difference indetecting and forecasting
hurricanes really theship-to-shore wireless but also
what we call remote sensing,collecting weather data from a
distance through radar.
That really exploded in the 40sand 50s and then eventually the

(10:22):
satellite era, starting in the60s where we could see these
hurricanes coming off theAfrican coast or see them in the
Caribbean.
We have a lot of technology inthe past five decades that
really helped us predicthurricanes.

Speaker 3 (10:32):
That leads me right to my next question, which is
going to be how has ourunderstanding of hurricane
forecasting changed since 1900?
But you pretty much covered itthere, of course.
1900, storms slams intoGalveston, one of the richest
cities per capita in the UnitedStates, and nobody knew it was
really going to hit Galveston.
If you haven't read the bookIsaac Storm, I highly recommend

(10:53):
reading that book.
It is really really cool.
A few of those landmarks thatare described in that book are
still around.
Just like you mentioned, whatwere the technological
limitations in tracking andpredicting hurricanes during the
early 20th century, let's sayafter the 1900 storm, before
1943, let's say how have theyimproved over time?

Speaker 2 (11:18):
Sure, well, you know, obviously what they had at the
time was a lot of land-basedinstruments that we got to ship
to shore communication, whichhelped, and then eventually
radar satellites, things likethat, improving it.
And actually now we have thehurricane hunters that fly into
hurricanes and so they'llcollect all kinds of data that
go into our models.
A lot of people don't know this.
The first time an airplane everflew into the eye of a
hurricane was right overGalveston Bay in 1943 in the

(11:38):
Surprise Hurricane.
So we have a lot of firstsaround here, a lot of things
that happen, a lot of advances.
I did want to say something too.
You know the fact that theyreally had no way to detect a
hurricane out in the Gulf in1900.
So the Galvestonians wereblindsided, and I lead Galveston
Hurricane Tour.
In the first four years of thetour I used to tell people, you
know these hurricanes would hitwithout warning as your house

(12:01):
was collapsing.
Often people would go to theclosest sturdy building they
could find to save their lives.
And for the first four years ofthe tour I used to tell people
this is how they used to live,but that'll never happen again.
Now we can see these thingscoming out of Africa.
We'll never be blindsided again.
I believe that until two yearsago.
Two years ago, hurricane Idahit down by New Orleans upper
category four hurricane, maximumsustained wind 150 miles an

(12:27):
hour.
But this storm just blew up offthe coast from a cap one to a
cap four and it fits this trend.
We've had six hurricanesrapidly intensified, just
explosive growth in the last 84landfall six times over the past
seven years.
It's only happened 11 timessince 1950, but since the past
seven years it's a huge trendbecause our water is so warm in
the Gulf of Mexico.
But when Hurricane.
Ida blew up from a Cat 1 to aCat 4 just south of New Orleans,

(12:50):
it was too late to evacuate NewOrleans.
I drove into New Orleans to dofield work the day before a Cat
4 hurricane hit southeastLouisiana.
There was no evacuation.
The emergency message signs allsaid seatbelts, vaccinations,
those save lives Not one word ofthe Cap Four hurricane coming
in.
Because you need 72 hours toevacuate New Orleans and they

(13:11):
didn't have that long.
South Florida Metro, NewOrleans and Houston-Galveston
corridor there's three areaswhere you need probably 36 to 48
hours at least to evacuate.
And if you get an explosivestorm that just blows up off the
coast without warning, it's toolate to evacuate people.
That's one of the things thatreally concerns me right now.
We're talking about thesetechnologies.
We can see these things forming.

(13:33):
We can see them forming offAfrica, we can trap them through
the Caribbean.
But if something blows up rightoff the coast, even though we
can see it and we havesatellites, sometimes these
storms in recent years have beengiving us very little warning.

Speaker 3 (13:50):
Galveston's been really lucky not to have one of
those, but if something blew, upoff the toast, say Labor Day
weekend, we'd be in a tight spothere.
Yeah yeah, With hundreds ofthousands of people down here
vacationing on a busy weekend,that could be a big issue for
sure.
Before we dive into some of thework and data-driven risk
analysis you're working on, youmentioned something the surprise
hurricane of 1943.
And I find it fascinating aboutthe surprise hurricane.

(14:12):
How can you not know in 1943,when you have radar and all this
, how can you not know there'sgoing to be a hurricane that's
going to hit?
So could you tell us a littlebit about?

Speaker 2 (14:19):
that by that time we had the ship to shore
communication wireless for about30 years.
But it's World War II and sothe US government didn't want a
lot of our ships out theretelegraphing and possibly that
being detected that they'd be atarget for German U-boats, so
that communication was allsilenced.
And then also the US governmentdidn't want the entities to
know that our majorpetrochemical corridor was going

(14:42):
to be hit by a hurricane, sothat hurricane warning and
information was completelycensored by the US government.
So when a Cat 2 hurricanerolled across Bolivar Peninsula
and came up the eastern part ofthe Houston metro area, it still
wanted the strongest hurricaneever to hit that the Galveston
Bay communities in the easternpart of Houston metro.
People had no warning at all.
Afterwards the US governmentdecided they're never going to

(15:04):
censor critical hurricanewarning information again.
But again we call it thesurprise hurricane, because
people literally woke up there'sthis hurricane bearing down on
them.
They had no idea it was coming.

Speaker 3 (15:14):
Well, that's interesting, you know, because
when I dive into you knowdifferent aspects of history.
I hear about Hurricane Carla Ihear about the Nicene Storm, the
1915 hurricane Still today,because they don't hear much
about the 1943 hurricane.
Was there much damage inGalveston or did it really
affect the Houston area?

Speaker 2 (15:29):
more.
It kind of it came in.
The direct landfall was aroundthe Bollinger Peninsula.
That came across Galveston Bay.
Here we would have not been onthe dirty side.
We would have had more offshorewinds, damaging.
I mean, let's talk about ahurricane has this eye of
relatively calm winds andsometimes clear skies.

(15:50):
Sometimes you'll see thesunshine in it.
The winds around the eye iscalled the eye wall.
Those are the really strongestsustained winds but sometimes
far to the right of the eye youget this banding and there can
be tornadoes embedded in that.
There'll be this long band andwith Carlet really the eye came
in down the coast, down by PortLavaca and Matagorda Bay.
We were far to the right, weweren't going to take a direct

(16:11):
hit from the eye or the eye wall, but unfortunately really one
of those squall bands came rightacross Galveston City and there
were some very violenttornadoes probably the strongest
tornado that's ever hitGalveston and it's probably the
strongest tornado that's everhit Dallas and there were
several that were spawned andunfortunately it came across.
We were just talking about itbefore we started reporting this
evening.
It kind of came in by pleasureof here.
I know it took out what used tobe the Ursuline Academy at 26

(16:36):
to then and kind of cut acrossthe city, producing tremendous
damage.
From Hurricane Carla.
I should say Hurricane Carla isinteresting as well.
It was a Category 4 hurricane,meaning the winds were
tremendous, I think in the 140s.
But usually those higherCategory hurricanes Category 4,
category 5, they tend to becompact and small.
Carver was a Cap 4, butgeographically huge it was just
pushing tremendous amounts ofsaltwater.

(16:57):
It produced the highest stormsurge on record in Texas down
closer to Matagorda Bay, a22.5-foot storm surge, and here
in Galveston really stillgetting about a 9, 9.5 foot
storm surge.
So a lot of coastal flooding asfar, really all the way up
through Bolivar Peninsula andeven past High Island.

Speaker 3 (17:17):
There was a newscaster who kind of got his
start here in Galveston, rightyeah, so a lot of folks know
about Dan Rather.

Speaker 1 (17:29):
He's one of the famous media people of the later
20th century that used to bethe anchor of the CBS Evening
News out of New York City.
He got a start in the very TimCarlin.
Here is Dan Rather speakingdirectly from Galveston If
evacuation of all islands and nocoastal areas along Louisiana
and the upper and central Texascoast has not been completed.
Evacuationacuation should behated before it is too late.

Speaker 2 (17:46):
He was a Texas guy, I believe.
He was born in Wharton, texas,went to San Houston.
He was a yell recorder workingfor KHLU in Houston when
Hurricane Carla came.
Well, this is before.
Storm chasing was really athing.
Now, if there's everything, youhave everyone out there with
their smartphones.
They're streaming to Facebookand TikTok and Instagram.
People weren't doing anythinglike that.
Dan Rather came up with the ideawhy don't we cross the causeway

(18:07):
into Galveston before theyclose it and report from
Galveston Island?
He got a thumbs up, came downhere to report from the ground
and he stumbled across the USWeather Bureau.
They were not in the LevyBuilding anymore.
They were now at the FederalBuilding at 25th and Church and
if you actually look at the oldpictures of the federal building
, it was a radar dome on top ofit in 1961.
They were shooting out theseradars and they actually, for

(18:29):
the first time, could see theeye of a hurricane coming
towards the coast and Dan Ratherwas there with them and they
broadcast that on the HoustonNews.
Well, this was such a big thing.
All of a sudden it's beingbroadcast by New York and
Chicago and Los Angeles and nextthing you know, the whole
country is watching this DanRather guy show the first ever
televised broadcast of ahurricane eye come into shore on

(18:51):
radar.
And today we see radar on theWeather Channel and the evening
news.
We don't think anything of it.
Back then, no one had ever seenanything like that before, so
that was another innovation thatcame right out of Galveston.

Speaker 3 (19:00):
Another Galveston first.
I definitely want to get intoyour research and things that
you're working on now because itreally is fascinating.
But before we do, before wemove past the 1900 storm, kind
of talking about the thing aboutthe seawall and the grade
raising, you know, raising theentire urbanized portion of
Galveston at the time Besidesthe seawall and grade raising,

(19:21):
was there anything else thatcame out of the 1900 storm that
we learned to protect physicallyfrom hurricanes?

Speaker 2 (19:28):
Yeah, that's a great question.
I mean, the seawall and graderaising were both tremendous.
One of the world's longestseawalls and now the seawall.
I know the sidewalk on theseawall runs about 10 miles.
It's the world's longestcontinuous sidewalk.
It's just a tremendous seawalland the pictures of the seawall
actually show the 17-foot drop,you know.
And that was all filled in bythe grain raising.
So imagine raising an inhabitedisland, 500 city blocks, 2,000

(19:50):
buildings.
The feat of this, of what theydid with the grain raising, was
tremendous.
They dug a canal on the innerpart of the seawall, built four
ocean-going ships in Europecalled dredge hoppers, sailed
them across the Atlantic, thenover a six-year period, dredged
up sediment from Galveston Bay,floated in on the canal and just
were piping that sediment intothe city.
That was really the main thingthey did.
But it was a tremendous effortto raise not only a city but,

(20:13):
you know, not only an island butan inhabited city.
They raised the churches, theyraised the buildings.
It was a tremendous effort thatthey did.
I think those are really themain things and it really has
protected us a lot.
When we look at Hurricane Ike,we see the high watermarks
downtown as bad as Hurricane Ikewas, and in downtown Galveston
the Ike high watermarks areactually the highest on record.
Still the seawall reallyprotected us from the massive

(20:34):
waves.
I mean, a lot of Galvestonwould have been not just flooded
but destroyed by storms likeParla and Ike had we not had the
seawall and the grade raisings.

Speaker 3 (20:43):
Are there any other examples across the globe,
essentially of other communitiesdoing that building seawalls
and raising the grade afterhurricanes or was this one of
the first places?

Speaker 2 (20:54):
Sometimes seawalls.
Grade raisings are very rare.
I think I've heard of someblocks like parts of the back
bay of Boston that's been filledin and sometimes you hear small
communities or neighborhoods inlarger cities are maybe not
raised as much as filled in bybays.
You know we see that.
But as far as actually raisingthe grade of an island as high
as 17 feet with an engineeredslope, I've never heard of

(21:16):
anything like that.
The effort was just tremendousto save Galveston.

Speaker 3 (21:20):
Okay, so let's move on a little bit.
You know, past the 1900 storm,Talked about some of Galveston's
major hurricanes, Hurricane Ike.
How did Ike compare?
You mentioned the storm surge.
How did Ike compare to the 1900storm?

Speaker 2 (21:32):
Yeah, so Ike very different storm.
It made landfall really rightover Galveston Island.
So we have this category system, a classification system called
the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Hurricanes are classified on ascale of one to five and that
just has to do with the winds.
The problem is most people diefrom water, from flood water,
from storm surge and heavy rain.
So when a lot of so I guess,just meteorologically Ike was a

(21:55):
category two.
The 1900 storm in Galveston wasmore like a category three.
But Ike was geographicallyenormous.
It was this geographically hugestorm.
So even enormous, it was thisgeographically huge storm.
So even though it was acategory two, it was pushing
tremendous amounts of salt water.
The 1900 storm destroyed so muchof galveston and actually
created this debris wall kind ofaround downtown.

(22:16):
If you get east of 12th streetyou don't see too many storms.
There's too many homes thatsurvive the 1900 storm.
You get south of avenue in nottoo many storm survivors.
There was this wall of debriskind of around downtown.
So the 1900 storm produced thehighest high watermark on record
in Galveston.
I think it was 15.7 feet ofmean low tide over around 8th
and Ball.
But if you look at the highwatermarks at Tikiwell's

(22:39):
Restaurant at 21st and PostOffice.
You'll actually see on thatwall, ike is the highest.
That's because this wall ofdebris kind of protected
downtown while the storm surgein 1900.
So there were different stormsthe 1900 storm much more compact
, slightly stronger wind,definitely stronger in the city.
But what's really interestingwith Ike was just the tremendous

(23:00):
storm surge.
You get over to BolivarPeninsula.
It was pushing about 17 and ahalf feet of saltwater just
moving incredibly fast, hugewaves.

Speaker 3 (23:07):
That's why most of Bolivar Peninsula is really
white clean Essentially turnsthat entire peninsula into just
a sandbar at that point becausethe water is so high.

Speaker 2 (23:15):
Essentially I think that's what would have happened
here.
More if you take away theseawall and the grade raising
have kind of that effect.
People often think worst casescenario you get hit by the eye.
Actually, the worst casescenario for Galveston would be
the eye hitting South of us.
The eye came in at JamaicaBeach or down by Surfside places
like that.
That would actually be a worstcase scenario for us here

(23:37):
because we wouldn't get a breakfrom the eye and get the
strongest onshore wind without abreak and we'd get the highest
wind change.
I hear that referred to as thedirty side of the storm.

Speaker 3 (23:46):
Yeah, that's true, yeah.

Speaker 2 (23:47):
If you're on that side, you're just getting a
strong, strong onshore flow andit's amazing how localized this
saltwater flooding will be.
If you're on that dirty side,you can get a 15-foot storm
surge.

Speaker 3 (24:00):
You go 50 miles away, it can drop really quickly.
So you spoke a little bitearlier about this rapid
intensification over the pastseven years of these or the past
50 years, but over the pastseven years you've seen six
hurricanes rapidly intensifiedright off the coast in the Gulf
of Mexico.
What are some of the things yousee that are you know around
the assume that everything goingon in the weather is climate

(24:20):
change?

Speaker 2 (24:26):
And I don't agree with that.
There are always going to befloods, there are always going
to be droughts and blizzards andall this stuff.
So the models really, and thedata are showing we're not
necessarily seeing any morehurricanes, but the
characteristics are changing.
One of the characteristics arewe do believe that the ocean
water temperature issubstantially warmer than it was
even 100 years ago.
That's leading to a lot ofrapid intensification.

(24:48):
Actually, how I help prove thatand show that there's a
physical process and I talkabout this anywhere I travel in
the world I dig down into theGalveston weather data.
Galveston helps us decode thissoaring.
We don't have water temperaturerecords going back before
really the satellite era.
We don't have water temperaturerecords going back before
really the satellite era.
You know we don't have watertemperatures from 100 years ago,
but what we do have isGalveston's weather record,

(25:10):
which is more than 150 years old.
We have constantly hourlyweather data.
And so what I did and the otherthing interesting about
Galveston, if you've been herein the summertime, we don't get
cold fronts in the summer, weget a constant onshore flow.
So, if you think about it, atnight there's no sunshine, there
tend to be less showers andwe're getting this constant
onshore flow where, if winds areblowing over hundreds of miles

(25:31):
in this really warm saltwater, Ibuild an analysis going back
150 years plotting out thenumber of hot nights.
A hot night is at least 84degrees In the first 150 years,
until 1927, actually we neverhad a hot night Then they start
showing up in 1927.
And then they start gettingreally a lot of hot nights by
the 70s and 80s.
Then in the mid-90s we have thefirst night that's 85 degrees

(25:54):
and then those start increasingup.
In the last five years we seethe introduction of 86 and 87
degree nights which we neverhave seen before.
I think that's directly relatedto the much warmer seas, ocean
water temperatures we're seeingand that in part gives more
moisture to hurricanes because alot more fuel for the rapid
intensification.
So there are somecharacteristics of these
hurricanes that are changing andthis rapid intensification is

(26:17):
scary because it gives you a lotless time to plan, a lot less
time to evacuate.
A lot of our evacuation plansare based on when the storm's 96
hours out.
Do this when it's 72 hours out.
We're sitting here watching thisthing come from Africa.
What if this thing blows up 300miles off the coast in just 36
hours?
That's one of my biggestconcerns right now.
Also, obviously, sea level'srising as the oceans warm,

(26:41):
warmer water expands, gets morevolume.
It's called thermal expansion.
We're seeing a lot of that andalso there's a lot of land-based
ice that's melting, especiallyin Greenland and Antarctica.
So sea levels are rising.
Galveston Island, along withthe upper Texas coast in south
Louisiana is sinking, subsiding,so in combination with that, we
have very rapid sea level riseas well.
So that's something that ifHurricane Ike hit today, it

(27:04):
would flood a bunch of housesthat didn't flood 15 years ago,
just because we're sinking andthe sea levels are rising.
So that's another concern aswell, related with climate
change.

Speaker 3 (27:14):
Climate change can be pretty contentious, depending
on who you're talking to.
So you basically dive into thisdata.
So I kind of want to get intosome of your work today, which
you did a great job covering.
Now I understand you have ateam that are working on
gathering all this data andlooking at data over the past
150 years or so and then, youknow, trying to check out the

(27:34):
trajectory.
Where are we going to end up in10, 15 years?

Speaker 2 (27:40):
For the past 15 years I've been running the US total
flood database.
So I couldn't believe in 2008,when I moved to the Gulf Coast,
the storm surge, these saltwaterfloods from hurricanes the
world's deadliest, costliestnatural disasters there was no
database.
You couldn't look up how oftendid these happen?
Where are the most vulnerableareas?
There were no data.
So for the past 15 years I'vebeen building this database.
So I build a comprehensiveflood history for 26 Gulf Coast

(28:03):
cities, 20 Atlantic Coast citiesand I just keep building this.
But it helps communities dig in, know their flood history,
which we can also run statisticson that and get an idea how
often a certain building shouldflood things like that.
So FEMA obviously does floodmapping based on models.
I'm coming from a differentangle and actually looking at

(28:23):
historically over the past 150years.
What do the historical datasuggest?
And a lot of times our analysisis quite different than what
FEMA is finding.
So again, we're building outthese histories.
I think every community shouldknow their flood history, and
then, on top of that, I'mleading a team of 29 analysts
that we're doing the firstproject of its kind in the world
, launched from a city namedGalveston, texas.

(28:45):
And of course, we have to comeback to Galveston.
We're actually developing adatabase that should be done
around the holidays this year.
It'll have the elevation ofevery building on Galveston
Island and starting next yearwe're going to be able to do
address-based flood forecasting.
So this will, if there's ahurricane in the Gulf and the
National Hurricane Center sayswe think there'll be an
eight-foot storm turningGalveston we'll be able to map

(29:05):
out which buildings should flood, how much water would be in
each building and how peoplereally decode that.
Not only that, people come tome all the time they say my
mom's interested to buy thishouse.
Did it flood at night?
We'll be able to take any houseand say that house would have
flooded twice.
That house would have floodedfour times.
That house over there neverflooded.
I think it's terrible thatpeople move here from different

(29:27):
places.
They've never been in ahurricane country.
They don't really know the wayaround it.
They want to buy a property andthere's no way to know if
that's flooded before.
So I think those types ofinformation should be well known
.
Galveston is a great place tolaunch this, because when my
friends visit here my floodscientist, friends from all over
the world they always sayGalveston's so amazing.
You chronicle all these highwatermarks.

(29:47):
We're proud of our history.
Not very many cities do that,and so I think it's really we
preserve this history.
Walk in the East End HistoricDistrict.
You go down some of thesestreets.
All the houses have a HurricaneIke high watermark.
That's unheard of in the worldthat people preserve that
history.
But I think we need to know it,not only for knowing the past,
but just for planning out how wewant to be more resilient in

(30:08):
the future.
How are you getting theelevation data?
Where are you getting all that?
Yeah, so we can use elevationcertificates.
That's an officially surveyedthing, but we developed some
innovative like technology thatwe can use.
Uh, so there's something calledlidar, where you fly over
islands with airplanes and youget very accurate ground
elevation data, and then we useother technologies like like gps

(30:31):
units and street level imageryand things like that to to
basically map out all ofgallaston.
So so it's funny today I justdid like I don't know how many
hundreds of buildings and then Irode my bike.
That's how to work out.
Then, on the way back, I had aground truth.
I was going down oh and a halfand I'm, like you know, doing
some, some stuff on the groundtoo.
So it's just, it's kind of anexcuse to have some fun and get

(30:52):
on my bike, but people arereally interested in this.
There's never been anythinglike this where we imagine if a
storm hit and you can say wethink that storm flooded 15% of
our buildings and here's wherethey are, and that can really
help a community recover veryquickly, and nothing like that
that I know of has been donebefore, so I know this is a
question we all would like toask.

Speaker 3 (31:13):
What is the safest highest part on the island,
based on what it is?
Galveston is very easy becausewe have this engineered slope.

Speaker 2 (31:19):
So in general, as you go closer to the seawall,
you're going up in elevation.
It's backwards right, everyother coastal community in the
world.
As you go up the beach, you godown Galveston's like no, we're
going to to the seawall, you'rehigher in ground elevation.
What I'm starting to see inthis building elevation project

(31:39):
is you actually see very similar?
I was curious would we actuallysee higher houses closer to the
seawall, or would peopledowntown just be elevating
higher?
It does appear like there'salso a slope, and not only the
ground elevation but the houseelevations.

Speaker 3 (31:52):
One thing we spoke about a few months back on our
first podcast that we did wasjust street flooding, and you
mentioned climate change.
One thing I wanted to ask youbefore we move on is street
flooding and the frequency ofstreet flooding on non-rainy
days.
You know, we'll see.
When we get a high tide, ourwater has nowhere to go.
When you do get a light rain,water has nowhere to go.

(32:14):
Can you kind of elaborate onwhere it could be?

Speaker 2 (32:17):
Yeah, sometimes it's called nuisance flooding,
sometimes they call it sunny dayflooding.
It's this concept.
Sometimes, when we get a highertide cycle and a strong
longshore wind, you're down by57th Street in Saladia or some
of these neighborhoods and yousee water in the streets and
it's a sunny day.
That's really again GalvestonIsland subsiding, sea levels
rising, the saltwater coming upthrough the drainage.
The issue with that right now Idon't think that's flooding any

(32:40):
coals, but as Galvestoncontinues to sink and sea levels
continue to rise, the issuebecomes something called
compound flooding.
What happens if there's asludge to the forum that dumps
14 inches of rain and then youhave a strong onshore wind, the
water in the bay is three feetabove normal.
All of a sudden you have thissaltwater in all of our drainage
and then it rains 14 inches.

(33:02):
Where's that 14 inches of raingoing to go?
It can't drain.
So we call that compoundflooding.
That's a big concern with placeslike Galveston, that places may
flood that wouldn't have if itwasn't for, again, the saltwater
approaching and moving in.
It's a concern, especially as weget towards the later part of
this century.
We're going to see even partsof downtown will start flooding

(33:23):
from saltwater, I think laterthis century, just on sunny days
with a strong winter wind, wow,and JR.
If I can say one more thing,yeah, absolutely.
When you go to Tequilas and yousee those five high watermarks,
we have five high watermarksabove ground.
If you could go three feetbelow ground you'd probably see
15 or 20 high watermarks Justonce you.
Once you Tequila's down therein post office, I think it's

(33:46):
about six feet of elevation.
We have a ton of storm surgesaround four and a half five feet
.
These hurricanes that hitLouisiana, they put four and a
half feet of storm surge here.
It doesn't show up yet downtown, but in 30, 40 years, all of a
sudden, a little bit a foot ortwo of sea level rise, all of a
sudden we're starting to floodway more frequently.

(34:08):
That's a big concern as we moveahead.

Speaker 3 (34:10):
I understand you're studying innovative solutions in
homes and in coastal areas thatare prone to flooding and
hurricanes.
Can you tell us a little bitabout the innovative solutions?
What can we do with our homes?
Can we retrofit them?
Can we build new styles ofhomes if we want to continue?

Speaker 2 (34:27):
to live in these areas.
I love all this stuff, but itdoesn't do any good if it
doesn't help us better prepareand better plan for the future.
And so, with the GeoTrekpodcast, with the work I'm doing
at Flood Information Systems,it all comes back to how can we
build better?
And so there are two or threethings people can do.
For one, check out somethingcalled the Fortified Project.
This is what Smart Home America.

(34:48):
It's building to a better codeand people are actually seeing
return on investment.
And this isn't some kind ofprogram out of Washington DC,
it's coming out of South Alabama.
A lot of Texans are like okay,now we'll listen, it's not
coming from the North, notcoming from DC, it's coming from
South Alabama, where they havetens of thousands of these
fortified homes built to a muchbetter standard.
For example, one of the thingsthey're doing if you do lose

(35:10):
shingles in a store if you'veever been in a hurricane it's
like a car wash.
You lose 10 shingles.
It's like a fire hose pushingall that water and saturating
your roof and your ceiling.
Then your ceiling collapses.
Now you have $90,000 of damage.
They're doing things likesealing the roof deck.
It's just a simple thing.
If you do lose shingles, andfortified shingles are better,

(35:31):
but if you do lose some, thenyou have some layers of
protection.
It's a better built house.
You can check it out.
It's Smart.
Home America is a nonprofit andthey do a lot with education.
They're really trying to expandnow more into Texas.
That's just a way you canbetter prepare for wind and
things like that.
But then what about water?
Water, like, how do we preparefor flooding?
Well, I mean the federal andArmy Corps.

(35:51):
They may end up doing somethings.
We've heard a lot about the IkeDike and the Coastal Spine and
there's been a lot of meetings.
That's been in the media, a lotin general and in favor of
putting things between us andthe saltwater.
That said, it doesn't reallyempower people to say, well,
let's just sit around and waitfor the government to maybe do
something.
So I'm a big fan of personalresiliency.

(36:11):
People say, what can I do formy whole?
And I'm hoping that there canbe some ways that we can build
better moving forward.
One way I'm a big fan.
Maybe this is because I'm such ahistory junkie but you walk
down downtown Galveston and yousee all this commercial space
down below with flats andapartments above.
It's how they used to build inthe 1800s.
It's how, when you go to Spain,you don't see a single family

(36:34):
residential.
Almost everyone lives like that.
The US has been so addicted tosingle family residential since
World War II, and when peopleare scattered and you sprawl,
it's really harder to protectthem.
Should we start building theway Galveston did in the 1800s,
where I have friends that liveon post office above the
Alphahouse?
They're never going to flood.
Your elevation's 30 feet right.

(36:55):
It sounds crazy, but a lot ofscientists are now saying we
need to retreat from the coast,and I'm like have you been to
the coast?
Have you seen what a greatquality of life we have?
Have you seen the economicengine that's here?
There are all kinds of reasonswhy we should live and be
vibrant on the coast.
We have to think aboutdifferent ways to build.
I'm not against single-familyresidential.
You can do it, especially ifyou build up, if you have strong
pilings, but perhaps urbanspace where we have mixed use

(37:18):
with residential abovecommercial.
And finally, then there's abunch of crazy ideas that will
go beyond this podcast.
I love crazy ideas.
In 2016, I was working with theHistorical Foundation here and
we hosted a workshop.
We had Elizabeth English fromthe Boyd Foundation Project come
down and she built anamphibious house in a tank in
the old Sears building.
We filled up with water.

(37:39):
You have to engineer it.
It needs a center point ofgravity so it doesn't tip over
An amphibious house like, forexample, my dad's 81 years old.
He doesn't want to walk up 35stairs to get into a house An
amphibious thing.
Instead of elevating your house12 feet, you elevate it maybe

(38:00):
two feet with a buoyantfoundation.
So you can do this in historicdistricts and you're not really
changing the curbside appeal.
You do need either guy wires oryou need pilings through the
walls.
You need to do something thatyour house doesn't flow down the
street and you also need todetach your electrical.
You need to detach yourplumbing.
You have to do a bunch ofgymnastics, but you could do
this in a historic community,not change the curbside appeal
and essentially protect thesehouses that they will never
flood again with a buoyantfoundation.
Been a ton of pushback in the USfrom FEMA and the federal

(38:23):
government on this concept, butagain it's an innovative
solution that would work inGalveston, because you cannot do
buoyant architecture, buoyantfoundations, where you have wave
action.
We have a seawall.
We don't get big waves inGalveston.
They do in Bolivar, they do inthe West End In Galveston City,
in our historic communities.
We could absolutely havebuoyant blocks where we're

(38:43):
taking.
Imagine taking 20 historichomes putting a buoyant
foundation.
They look exactly the same fromthe curve but they're never
going to flood again.
Things like that.
I started talking.
Most people think I'm crazy.
I think what's crazy is yourhouse has flooded three times
and you've done nothing tobetter prepare for the country.
To me that sounds crazy.
Boeing Foundation I'm like,okay, I'm open to anything.
Again, you have to do a bunchof gymnastics to do that.

(39:06):
But we need to start being morecreative.
Friends of mine that work inhistoric preservation say some
preservationists are soentrenched that you can't change
a thing.
They're out in California firecountry and they're like no, you
cannot do fire resistantshingles, that's not what they
had a hundred years ago.
And then you just lose thewhole community to a wildfire.
So at some point we need tohave it.

(39:27):
So it looks very historic, it'sas authentic as it can be.
Maybe some slight adaptationsthat we don't lose these things,
you know, to some of theseclimate hazards.

Speaker 3 (39:37):
Did they, you know, with that project?
Did they do any type of costanalysis?
What would something like thatcost to put your home on a
buoyant foundation?

Speaker 2 (39:45):
Yeah, you would need to talk to probably people with
that project.
Elizabeth English spends halfof the year in Canada, half of
the year in Louisiana, but Iknow this month they had an
international conference inGermany.
It's being talked about a lotin Europe.
It's being done in SoutheastAsia and Central America.
This is being done around theworld.
In the US there's been a lot ofpushback.
I think FEMA and ElizabethEnglish, I think, were fighting

(40:08):
about this for about 10 yearsand they actually said if a
community gets one buoyantfoundation, we will take away
flood insurance for the entirecity.
So they were that much againstit and I think they didn't want
people building brand new housesnext to a river and saying it's
OK, it has a buoyant foundation.
Elizabeth English and that wasnever my intention she walked

(40:28):
through a place like Galvestonand said look at all these old
historic buildings that we couldretrofit, keep them looking
exactly like they did.
But now you know we're going toflood again.
So I think for retrofit it's agreat idea, maybe not for new
construction in a wide open area, but for some of our historic
communities where these housesare six, seven feet above flood
level, they got four feet ofsaltwater and hike, we need to

(40:49):
do something to preserve them ifwe lost that is fascinating.

Speaker 3 (40:53):
Okay so we have a few more minutes left before we
take questions.
I do want to talk a little bitabout your podcast and some of
the experiences you've had.
So the fun part about yourpodcast is that you get to
travel all over the country andsoon internationally.
Can you talk about some of yourfavorite experiences you've had
while recording this podcast?

Speaker 2 (41:11):
Oh man.
So the GeoTrack podcast?
This is like a dream come true.
It's a podcast about extremeweather and natural disaster,
these stories that are notcovered by the mainstream.
It's all about really learningabout the people impacted by it,
what they're doing to be moreresilient, how they're building
better.
I mean I've had.
My favorite experiences werethe ones where I'm traveling.
I mean, last year I didn't wantany Everglades.
This year I went out toCalifornia to document the 60

(41:33):
feet of snow.
I mean I was like 60 feet ofsnow, I have to be there.
This was crazy.
I interviewed a bunch of peoplethat engineer for heavy snow
loads right after a meeting.
They're like you want to comeskiing with us.
I was like I got to meet it.
They're like we got a free passto Tahoe.
So two months later I'm upthere on a sure lift with them.
I'm like you know, after themeeting, canceled.
So just places I get to gotravel, meet people that don't

(41:56):
for extreme weather.
But then a lot of times they'reout like in this case, they're
out playing in it, they're outskiing in it, but then they're
building for these heavy snowloads.
So obviously going intohurricanes anytime that I'm
seeing livesaving innovations,creative people, communities
coming together.
Just in Hurricane Adelia overin Florida last month, there was

(42:16):
a business a hardware store,was just like almost sheared off
.
Their business was crushed bythis hurricane and they're open
the next day to serve in thecommunity.
We just document a lot of thatas well.
Just people coming together,anything related to resiliency,
a lot of lessons learned,success stories, anything like
that we're going to document.
Last thing I should say Iattended about the Corvette

(42:38):
Museum in Kentucky last year.
They had a sinkhole open up andgobble up all these Corvettes
and stuff like that.
I'm like I got it.
I got to see what this is allabout.
So that's my favorite part isgoing to these places, hearing
these stories about anythingextreme weather, it could be
natural disasters like sinkholesin Kentucky, anything like that
.
I want to be there.
I want to kind of talk topeople that were impacted and
just what can we learn from that?

(42:59):
How can we better prepare?

Speaker 3 (43:01):
I definitely want to ask you about that, because your
nickname is Hurricane Hal, butyou do chase natural disasters
all over.

Speaker 2 (43:06):
You know, what we're seeing is some of the lessons
we're learning in hurricanecountry we can apply to other
parts of the world.
I just did a podcast with PeteAthens.
He's a Himalayan mountaineeringexpert.
He climbed Mount Everest seventimes and they found, in the
2015 Nepal earthquake, some ofthe older construction made out
of wood, stone and brick and mudthat actually survived better

(43:27):
than some of the newerconstruction.
I thought this is just like onthe Gulf Coast, where you go to
Galveston and Biloxi and some ofthese communities, people will
tell you sometimes the olderconstruction the lead of cypress
and the older resilientmaterials often performs better
than the new stuff.
So what we're seeing in theHimalayas relates to Galveston.
So these connections issomething I'll certainly enjoy.

(43:47):
I'm hoping to get the podcastmore international.
I haven't purchased the ticketsyet, but I'm 98% sure I'll be
going to Portugal, spain andMorocco over the holidays to
record podcasts there and againtrying to take lessons we
learned there, apply it back tothe States.

Speaker 3 (44:01):
Beautiful.
I love it.
So if you haven't yet listenedto the GeoTrek podcast, it is
great, it is awesome.
So we have about 15 minutesleft.
I want to give plenty of timeif anyone wants to ask any
questions at all to this amazingmeteorologist we have here who
travels the country chasingnatural disasters.
So if you have any questions atall, yes, sir.

Speaker 8 (44:21):
So I'd like to first make a couple of comments and
then ask a question.
The first comment is aboutafter the 1900 storm, during the
grade raising, which is anengineering feat that could not
be done today.
I mean, it just couldn't happen.
But St Patrick's Church I usedto have this glass slide, a five
by seven glass slide that wastaken during the great raising.

(44:45):
St Patrick's Church, just southof Broadway and 30th Street
there were dozens of big screwjacks that were used to raise
that structure and there weretwo people, one on each side of
the screw jack, with someonewith a megaphone telling them

(45:08):
when to turn.
And they all had to turn atexactly the same time or the
building would collapse and eachturn would raise it.
You know this far, uh, and, andthat was just kind of amazing
to to see that and that's whatwas done all over the city.

Speaker 2 (45:27):
That generation just found a way to get really hard
stuff done.
I mean, imagine, talking aboutthe great raising.
You're like we're going to digthis canal and build four ships
in europe and and we're going tobuild the 70-foot seawall and
then everyone's going to raisetheir house and then, oh yeah,
we're going to put dozens of menunderneath the churches with
jack screws and have a megaphoneor beat a drum.
I mean it almost soundsludicrous, right, they did it.

(45:48):
I mean, they just found a wayto do really, really hard stuff.

Speaker 8 (45:51):
It's so inspirational really, really hard stuff.
It's so inspirational.
Hurricane Alicia in 1983, oneof the reasons that it was
almost a surprise hurricane isbecause it came.
It sat in the Gulf.
It was a relatively lowcategory hurricane and it sat in
the Gulf and it built and builtand built until it came on

(46:12):
shore in Galveston we felt.
We actually felt the eye of thehurricane during the leachate.
It did damage, but nothing likeIke or Carla before it.
I understand that tide surgethat did the damage in life,

(46:37):
that when the water recedesquickly it does almost as much
damage going out as it doescoming in Great questions.

Speaker 2 (46:45):
Well, let's start with Alicia.
My girlfriend Alicia is in thecrowd tonight so she's gonna be
super excited about thisquestion.
She was four years old when theactual Alicia hurricane came in
and her dad said it was namedafter her.
So she's super excited.
You asked that question.
She was four years old when theactual Alicia hurricane came in
and her dad said it was namedafter her, so she's super
excited.
You asked that question.
Starting with Alicia and this isvery interesting there was a
stalled out front in the Gulf ofMexico in 1983.
Hurricane Alicia spun up fromthat, but Alicia also pretty

(47:08):
rapidly intensified beforehitting the coast.
It hit the southern part ofGalveston Island as a Cat 3
hurricane.
When you go to see the highwatermarks at 2021st and Post
Office, you'll see Ike and thenyou'll see 1915, 1900, carla.
At the very bottom you seeAlicia and I always mention to
people this is interesting.
A Cat 3 hurricane produced ahigh watermark at the very

(47:31):
bottom.
The highest high watermark onthat pole is from a Cat 2
hurricane.
So people often think you'llhear people say we only evacuate
for Cat 3 or higher, but youhave a Cat 2 hurricane producing
the highest high watermark anda Cat 3, the lowest and so we
often say there's more to thestory than the category.
A lot of my PhD research when Ibuilt this database I wanted to
understand how hurricanes pushsaltwater and what we found is

(47:55):
the hurricane intensity atlandfall does not correlate very
well with the storm surge.
What correlates much better isthe hurricane intensity about 18
hours before landfall, as wellas the geographic size.
So a storm that's rapidlyintensifying right up to
landfall, like Alicia, comes inat a cap three Because it was
just intensifying right at thelast minute.

(48:16):
It didn't really.
It wasn't pushing as muchsaltwater into Galveston.
So you don't really hear aboutflooding that much with Alicia.
Everyone talks about theferocious winds, and so if we
had a storm that kind of blew upoff the coast, it might be more
of a wind event actually andnot as much flooding In October,
if we ever got hit by anOctober hurricane.
We have our cool waters alongthe coast.

(48:37):
Imagine if you had a Cat 5hurricane offshore, but then it
hits that cool water rightbefore landfall and it makes
landfall as a Cat 2.
It can still push a huge stormsurge because pre-landfall it
was a lot stronger.
So sometimes what's happeningabout 18 hours before landfall.
That's really driving the stormsurge, as well as the
geographic size.
So, alicia, very much known asa wind event, not as much

(48:58):
flooding, because it just wasn'tas well developed farther out
in the Gulf.
And then you talked as well.
A great point.
Sometimes the water pushes in,but when it goes out, depending
on the speed that it's going out, that can actually cause more
of the damage.
I've heard accounts like that,like down the coast where
Hurricane Harvey hit down byRockport at Port Ranzas.
People often say when the waterpushed out, that's when a lot

(49:20):
of the damage happened.
So you just have fast.
The main thing to think about.
With storm surge, it's not justwater rising vertically.
This is very fast moving, fastflowing water.
It looks like a raging riverand that's why it just tears up
so many buildings.
It's the deadliest disaster inthe world.
Great question.

Speaker 8 (49:37):
You were talking about the water level rising
versus subsidence.
Both contribute at the sametime, but they're different
phenomena, right?

Speaker 2 (49:47):
Yeah, that's right, great question.
So in general global sea levelrise over the past century was
about seven inches.
So in general around the worldthe sea level century was about
seven inches.
So in general around the worldthe sea level came up about
seven inches.
But in Galveston it rose overtwo feet.
You know, to parts of SouthLouisiana, south of New Orleans,
like down by Hola, it rose morethan three feet.
Why is it so much more?

(50:08):
It's because the land issubsiding or sinking.

Speaker 8 (50:10):
What would it be if you averaged it out per year?
Right now for Daffodil andGalveston?

Speaker 2 (50:16):
Right in the past century the sea level here was
rising, relative to land, aboutthree inches every 12 years.
But now it's more like fourinches every 12 years.
So I know of a high watermarkon Wall Street.
Between 17th and 18th A housewas dry by three inches at Ike.
If I hit today, 15 years later,that house will be flooded.

(50:37):
So that's part of the concernwhen we hear about sea level
rise.
A couple inches or a foot ofsea level rise doesn't seem like
a lot when you're on the beach,but when you're in the build
environment you're now addingthat to all the high water marks
, so it could be half an inch ayear if you're combining
subsidence with the ocean rise.
Maybe not quite that much, maybean inch every three years or so

(50:59):
, but still that starts toreally add up.
And again, when you look atthese histories, we have a ton
of storm surges that were fourand a half five feet, that never
quite made it to inundateplaces like Post Office Street,
but at a foot of sea level riseand all of a sudden no storms
hitting Louisiana or floodingdowntown Galveston that's what
we're looking at.
Places like post office street,but at a foot of sea level rise
, and all of a sudden no stormsitting in Louisiana or flooding

(51:20):
downtown Galveston that's whatwe're looking at maybe 20 years
from now yeah

Speaker 3 (51:25):
so in talking about historic storms, you said a lot
of cat, this, but then thatright.
Do you think it's time for theUnited States to change the
rating scale?
Is there any talk of that?

Speaker 2 (51:37):
you know so most people die from the flood water,
but the rating scale is for theUnited States.
To change the rating scale, isthere any talk of that?
You know so most people diefrom the flood water, but the
rating scale is for the wind.
I think it kills more peoplethan it saves lives.
Really, what the classificationscale does?
It tells you this is the windrisk on my house from the storm.
It tells you nothing about theflood potential.
So it's a major problem when wehave this rating system a

(51:58):
category one through five.
It's a major problem when wehave this rating system Category
1 through 5, category 1 startsat 74 miles an hour and Category
5 is more than 157.
You'll hear meteorologists saythings like the storm's been
downgraded from a 3 to a 2.
It's been downgraded, it's nolonger a hurricane.
And so people hear my risk islower.

(52:19):
Oh, by the way, like whenHarvey Hurricane Harvey was a
flood about five years ago dug40, 50 inches of rain in Houston
Metro.
When most of that rain fell, itwas a cat zero.
The winds were not reachingforce anymore.
So you hear on the newsHarvey's been downgraded, it's
no longer a hurricane.
When people hear downgraded,that sounds like my risk is
lower.
Oh, by the way, it's going torain 40 inches in your community
and you're going to have 12feet of water in your house.
So for us in the sciencecommunication field, I have to

(52:43):
do a bunch of gymnastics and usea whole bunch of all those
statements.
Although it's been downgraded,the life-threatening flooding
hasn't even started in yourcommunity, so it puts us in a
hole we have to dig out of.
I would love if they justdiscontinued the whole
classification system.
I know we use it a lot, even Iuse it a lot tonight.
It's just the way we refer tostorms, but the big caveat is

(53:04):
that only talks about the windand it's the water that kills
most of the people.
Great question.

Speaker 7 (53:09):
That was kind of on the same thing that I was
talking about.
So what are we going to look?
At besides wind speed, when ahurricane is coming in.
That more important, you know,if they downgrade a storm, what
are we going to?

Speaker 2 (53:21):
be looking at.
Yeah, so what I would do?
The way I look at it, thehurricane really produces three
major hazards wind, rainfall,flooding and storm surge
flooding.
There also are tornadoes.
They can be bad, they're a bitfreakish and they're
geographically tiny.
Truly, those first main threeare the big ones, and what's
really interesting is theHurricane Center will produce
information showing yourprobability of having hurricane

(53:43):
force winds, your probability ofgetting saltwater flooding and
also probability of rainfallflooding.
So what I mean by that is I cancommunicate wow.
Based on the latest model andthe latest forecast, it is now
probable that we'll see at leastthree feet of saltwater in
downtown Galveston.
So regardless of I don't carewhat category it is.

(54:03):
So my girlfriend Alicia and Iwere just in Hurricane Adelia.
We were talking to some peopleright in the path of this storm
about are they concerned?
Are they going to evacuate?
They had no concern withflooding.
They said we've been here since1980.
We've never flooded before.
That's what I hear all the time.
I've been here 30 years, we'venever flooded.
I've been here 40 years, we'venever flooded.
We pulled up the latest model.
It showed a 30% chance thatthey're going to have at least

(54:26):
four feet of saltwater in theirhome.
They couldn't believe that.
So, again, all those data areout there.
So I often talk to people aboutthe likeliness that your house
will flood.
It's now probable that thesehouses will flood.
It doesn't matter what categoryproduces that.
All that matters is thatthere's going to be floodwater
in homes.
So great question yes, ma'am.

Speaker 7 (54:47):
So I manage a business downtown and our
hurricane response policy isfour days out from landfall.
We have to make the decision toclose and that gives us time to
raise everything up from thefirst floor and give staff time
to evacuate if that's so needed.
But when I look at thespaghetti models and things four
days out, they're all over theplace.
I can't tell you how many times?

(55:08):
I mean, I've been here for sixyears now, I think four, and we
made the decision to evacuatethe night before.
It's still supposed to hitGalveston.
You wake up and it's hitLouisiana.
So it's still supposed to hitGalveston.
You wake up and it's hitLouisiana.
So it's kind of this kind oftwo-part question Are those
spaghetti models thatunpredictable?
Are storms that unpredictable?
Or they can just go whereverthey want, whenever they want?

Speaker 2 (55:28):
Yeah, it's a great question.
Models are improving.
The issue becomes.
It takes a while to prepare abusiness and it takes a while to
evacuate places like theHouston-Galveston corridor.
So if we wait until the lastminute we couldn't get everyone
out.
If we waited until the lastminute you couldn't prepare your
business.
So unfortunately we have to dosome of these plans, maybe two,
three, four days out.

(55:49):
By then the storm is maybe inthe central Gulf, we're just
coming off Cuba or Yucatan ofMexico, so there's still
somewhat of what we call a cone.
So it is a bit unpredictable.
With some of these things thatwe like evacuations, we have to
trigger those before we havecertainty of where the storm is
going.
The way Bill Reed, the formerdirector of the Hurricane Center
, the way he puts it, if youlive in a beautiful place like

(56:11):
the Texas coast, you just haveto have in your mind in your
lifetime you're going to have toprobably evacuate four times,
and three of the four were quoteunquote unnecessary, but I
can't tell you which of the oneit's going to be necessary.
So it's almost that way ofthinking.
Probably, if you live here longenough, you'll have to evacuate
four times and three times andsay it'll be a hurricane readout

(56:33):
and say I didn't need to go,why did I do it?
But there'll be that one thatyou say.
It's a good thing.
I took the precautions, sothere is still quite a bit of
uncertainty.
Again, as I'm communicating onsocial media, I'm trying to use
very normal language andcommunicate the probabilities of
wind and flood damage I havecreated.
It's the hazard area likelinessindex.

(56:54):
It's the HAL index.
I tried not to use an acronymfor my name.
I didn't know what it was.
Area Likeliness.
Index, a HAL index.
I tried not to use an acronymfor my name.
I didn't know what it was.
It's just common language,though If you have a less than a
10% chance, it's unlikely.
10 to 50 is possible, 50 to 90is probable, 90 or above is
likely.
So when I'm saying it's notprobable that downtown Galveston
will have at least three feetof saltwater, I'm not just

(57:14):
randomly choosing a word, I'mvery carefully aligning that
with the latest statisticalmodels.
And again, as the storm getscloser, the certainty either
ramps up or drops.
But trying to use very plainlanguage is sometimes the
language is very confusing.
People just just want to know,basically, how likely is it that
my house is going to flood and,if so, when is it going to
flood?
That's all people really careabout.

(57:35):
At the end of the day, is mybusiness going to flood's all
people really care about?

Speaker 7 (57:39):
at the end of the day , is my business going to flood?
If so, when?
Yeah, so we call thosehurricanes where I work um, but
so is technology advancing atall, where those models are
getting more realistic, or likeis it truly that crazy?

Speaker 2 (57:53):
no, um for sure I I don't know the exact numbers off
the top of my head, but if youcompare the models now compared
to the year 2000, it it's muchtighter than it was.
There's still some uncertainty,though, in both the intensity
and the track forecast.
That's just inherent.
If you think about any forecast.
Anytime you're trying toforecast what's going to happen
in the future whether it'seconomics, global geopolitical

(58:15):
events, whatever it is there'salways uncertainty involved, and
so the models are definitelyimproving.
But we still need a lead timein a place like Galveston for
preparing our businesses forevacuating.
Sometimes we do a bunch of workthat we look back say we didn't
need to happen.
But, like you said, I alwaystell people take our occasion.
I say the same thing Go out tothe hill country, visit your

(58:37):
family in Dallas, just get outearly.
It's the best thing you can do.
You don't get stuck in theevacuation traffic.
If it was unnecessary you canalways drive back.

Speaker 6 (58:46):
So the Coastal Barrier Resource Act just passed
in the Senate and it's mainlyto protect storm surge areas in
the United States, specificallyhelping coastal birds and
wildlife.
Is there anything that couldoverlap between protecting

(59:09):
wildlife and from like hugestorms like that?
And you know we talk a lotabout protecting our homes and
protecting where we live.
Is there anything that we could, you know, vote for or ask you
know our representatives forthat would also benefit wildlife
and us?

Speaker 2 (59:39):
Anytime you're building up dunes and building
up the marshes, the grasslands,the coastal prairies, things
like that, you're helpingprotect people and protect the
environment.
I'm in favor of anything likethat.
I was just in Alabama severalmonths ago actually, I think
back in the spring I noticed onthe coast there were like
hundreds and hundreds ofChristmas trees that were put
down.
Anything like that's a greatidea, right Like people have to
dispose of their Christmas trees.
Instead of throwing them out,why not collect them, put them
on the coast?
If you've ever spent time onthe coast when the wind blows,

(01:00:00):
you'll see sand piled up by afence post right when there's a
windbreak.
The sand deposits.
You put hundreds or thousandsof Christmas trees.
A lot of sand is going todevelop around there and deposit
.
You're going to start buildingdunes.
So things like that.
I mean I would love to see moregrant programs like that that
build out the coast.
That protects wildlife, butit's also putting some some

(01:00:20):
natural barriers between ourpopulation and the salt water,
which which provides someprotection.
So I'm a big favor of that twothings, by the way.

Speaker 5 (01:00:33):
We did have um christmas trees down on our
beach on the west end.
I did have Christmas trees downon our beach on the West End.
I bet they got out and it wasbuilding.
And then my next question is weare not here.
We are in the north.
In the summertime, when it getsto be hurricane time, you know
we're always hoping, okay, okay.
And I listen to, or I get on theSpace City Weather app and I

(01:00:54):
kind of say, when they say,don't worry, I kind of leave a
little bit of my breath out.
Should we be doing that, or isSpace City weather you?

Speaker 2 (01:01:02):
know I'm a huge fan of Space City weather.
They're really.
The thing is, a lot of timesweather media has a reputation
I'd say a bad reputation forhyping things.
There's a reason why they putthe weather at the end of the
news.
It's a hook.
A lot of people are planningthe weekend.
If there's a hurricane, mygoodness, everybody wants to

(01:01:23):
watch and see what's going tohappen.
I've seen way too many timesthat I glance at something.
It's going to dissipate in theGulf or go to Florida, and then
you'll see on network news.
Local broadcasters say staytuned, there may be a hurricane
moving into the Gulf.
There's already enough to worryabout, right.
So I'll just tell people onsocial media.
You may hear about a storm.
If it forms at all, it's goingto Florida, nothing to worry

(01:01:44):
about.
Turn off your TV, turn off yoursocial media, grab a book, take
a nap.
You know I just don't likehyping things, you know.
So space city weather is thesame way.
They don't hype.
So a lot of times they'retelling people when the other
media sources are getting peoplewound up.
Space City is very, very directand I like that because when
you cry wolf enough times peopletune you out.
You know there's going to be astorm that people really need to

(01:02:06):
pay attention to.
If you're hyping up all thesestorms, people are going to
listen when they really need to.
There's a lot of different appsand websites that are coming
out that are really doing a goodjob.
It's just interesting.
Well, I was talking to JR andsome other folks too, about how
people used it always used to becable TV, right, and now it's
amazing how just all thesedifferent apps and social media
platforms are really coming.

(01:02:28):
You're getting a lot moreoptions.
There are a lot of good optionsout there and it's just.
It's interesting to me thatpeople are turning more to their
smartphones, to apps andwebsites, as opposed to cable TV
.
That's a good question.
That gets into dune building.
It has been out of my area ofexpertise.

(01:02:49):
I know that there are some ofthese tubes that will protect, I
think, and some of them youfill with water.
Some of them, maybe, I knowthere're like sand capture tubes
and things like that.
I'm just, in general, in favorof innovations and experiments.
I know, I think there wereexperiments with this thing that
like trapped sand that wasgoing to erode down the coast
and it trapped sand to helpbuild the beach.

(01:03:11):
I think a lot of those thingswork really well.
That gets into a field calledgeomorphology kind of how is the
beach environment changing andwhat can we do to capture sand?
A big theme.
Barrier islands want toconstantly move around.
They're very dynamic and so abig theme is how do we capture
the sand, how do we keep oursand from washing away?
It's a big focus or in thispart of the world is how do we,
how do we capture the sand, keepit to build out the beach for

(01:03:33):
tourism, but also to protect usfrom storms.

Speaker 3 (01:03:36):
So I did want to ask you one more question this will
be the last one.
We're going to clobber a littleovertime here the Ike Dike
Project and things that arehappening.
I know it's a 30 plus year over$30 billion project, so do you
have any idea if that isactually going to happen and if
it's actually going to be ableto protect us from a crazy?

Speaker 2 (01:03:57):
storm surge coming into the day.
It's in the news a lot.
I mean, in general, I'm infavor of putting things between
us and the water.
I think we need to protectourselves in some way.
I personally liked, with theIke Dike, when they put the ring
levee around Dalveston, thisconcept of continuing the
seawall that we'd be protectedon all sides.
We look at these high watermarks downtown Post-seawawall.
These are really coming in fromthe harbor.

(01:04:17):
We don't have protection there.
So, in general, I'm in favor ofa lot of the ideas with it.
You see it in the news.
It's been approved.
But then it's this 30 billiondollar price tag.
You know, I like the idea ofprotecting the debtfully
developed areas like downtowngalveston, maybe certain areas
around refineries, these hotspot areas, maybe starting with
the low-anging fruit, with whatcan we do for the least amount

(01:04:40):
of money for the most benefit?
I think we're going to have todo something.
We're very vulnerable here.
I'd like to see moreprotections.
We're just going to have towait and see what happens in the
news though, because it'ssomething in the news, but it's
a very pricey project.

Speaker 3 (01:04:53):
All right.

Speaker 2 (01:04:59):
So any closing thoughts from you, dr Hal?
Yeah, check out the GeoTrekpodcast, check out flood
information systems, where we'relaunching this address-based
flood forecasting.
Galveston will be the firstcity in the world that we've
really launched it for, sothere's a lot of different
innovations that we're doing.
The last thing I'll say toleave you with this when you
drive in a car, you have a rearview mirror, but even bigger is
your windshield.
I absolutely love Galvestonhistory.

(01:05:19):
I think it's so inspirational.
In a way, I look at it like arear view mirror.
I love looking at where we camefrom.
I get inspired by the historyof the city, but if we just stop
there, we're missing out.
I also think when you drive,you're looking at the windshield
.
Even more important is where wego.
I think Galveston's a veryinspirational city to launch a
lot of innovations, in part bywhat our ancestors did here with
the gray raising the seawall, alot of the innovations that

(01:05:42):
happened here.
That's an inspirational past.
We're still very flood prone,but I get excited about in the
decade or two in the future.
How are we going to launch someof these initiatives?
Maybe create a flood resiliencyindustry here.
You know that can help thelocal economy.
I picture us doing things tosave ourselves and then
exporting that knowledge to saveother cities as well.
So I think you know our past isamazing.

(01:06:03):
I think our future is going tobe even more amazing as we move
ahead.

Speaker 3 (01:06:07):
Thank you so much for joining me tonight.
Thank everyone for coming Roundof applause for Dr Howe.