Welcome back to GMT! In this episode, Rob Bata and Murray Coffey sit down with trusted advisor Gerard Tanja of Venturis Partners to unpack what's really going on in the global legal market. We take a deep dive into cross-border expansion, major mergers making headlines, and why litigation boutiques are gaining traction worldwide. It is a thoughtful, candid conversation aimed at law firm leaders navigating a rapidly shifting landscape. If your firm is eyeing growth beyond borders, you will not want to miss this one.
Featured Quotes:
- Gerard Tanja: "We will see in the future—a kind of global elite type of 10 to 15 firms consisting mainly of and dominated by U.S. firms."
- Rob Bata: "What we are seeing is that disputes generally—litigation, arbitration, mediation—are becoming global. This is why litigation boutiques are becoming more international."
Main Topics Discussed:
- The big mergers that have garnered significant attention: Allen & Overy teaming up with Shearman & Sterling, and the pending Herbert Smith Freehills-Kramer Levin combination.
- How U.S. and U.K. firms are positioning themselves for European expansion—and why they are choosing certain markets over others.
- The increasing presence of Chinese and Japanese firms in Europe and what that means for regulatory dynamics.
- The rise of specialized litigation boutiques and their shift toward a global footprint.
- Why the Nordic and Benelux regions are becoming hot spots for law firm growth.
- What law firm leaders should expect in the next few years—more transatlantic mergers, aggressive European expansions, and a reshaping of the mid-market landscape.
Call to Action:
Make sure to subscribe to GMT and catch Part 2 of this conversation, where Rob and Gerard dive even deeper into what is ahead for 2025 and beyond. You can find us on all major podcast platforms—Apple Podcasts, Spotify—wherever you get your podcasts. And if you like what you hear, share it with your colleagues and leave us a review!
Contact Rob and Murray:
Robert C. Bata, Founder and Principal, WarwickPlace Legal
Email: rbata@warwickplace.com
Murray M. Coffey, Founder and Principal, M Coffey
Email: murray@mcoffey.net
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Murray (00:00):
Rob, welcome to GMT, the podcast for
(00:02):
globally minded law firm leaderswith your host, Robert Bata,
principal of Warwick place legaland Murray Coffey, principal of
M Coffey,between them, Rob and Murray
have about three quarters of acentury's experience working
with some of the most notablelaw firms on the planet. This
podcast is designed to helpthose law firm leaders tasked
(00:24):
with growth make great decisionsabout whether and how to
implement cross border expansionfor their firms and what it
takes to succeed.
And now. Rob Bata,well, here we are back with
another edition of GMT. It'sbeen a minute, and there's been
(00:46):
a lot that has been going on inthe global and domestic legal
market in terms of mergers andtie ups and spin offs and
disinvestment and reinvestment,and so we're going to cover a
lot of that today, and we've gota special guest that that my
colleague, Rob will introducehere in just a minute. But Rob,
I want to say Hello, HappyHolidays to you and your family,
(01:10):
and I hope the sun is shiningwhere you are. It is it is here.
Gerard, I understand it'smiserable there and in your part
of Europe at the moment, butRob, hello, welcome. Great to
see you, as always. How are you?
Rob Bata (01:25):
Hey, I'm good. Hi, Mary. Great to see you. It's
good to do this 2024 recap, andto start 2025 on a good note, on
a high note, and Happy New Yearto you. Happy New Year to our
guest, Gerard Tanya, as you say,it's been a pretty busy year for
law firms looking at theirstrategies, and we're going to
(01:49):
be discussing that with ourfriend Gerard, who has been our
guest before. Just to remindeverybody, Gerard, it was a
founder of heads of mentorsConsulting Group, a European
based consultancy that adviseslaw firms and a lot of
departments professional serviceorganizations on their strategy,
(02:10):
also involved in mergers andlegal process outsourcing and a
whole range of professionalservices related consulting. Her
art has been in the business forquite some time. He spent a fair
number of years with Cliffordchance and also as a diplomat.
So her art, it's a pleasure towelcome you back. We had a very
good session or two with youbefore in 2024 and we look
(02:35):
forward to a good discussion.
Thanks, Robert. So I think tokick off, it would be a good
idea to just kind of set thestage in terms of what's been
going on in the world. And Iguess I'll talk about that a
little bit before we turn tosome of the more in depth
analysis. 2024 saw a number ofvery interesting developments.
Probably the top of the heap wasthe merger between Alan and
(03:00):
Sherman and Sterling. And alsoattracting a lot of attention is
the merger, which has not yettaken place, but is due to close
in, I think, May of this year,between Herbert Smith free
hills, the UK Australian firm,and the New York firm Kramer.
(03:23):
In addition to that, what we'veseen is a continued interest by
US and UK firms in expanding inEurope. And there are a number
of reasons for that, and I'llget to that in a second last
year expansion into the MiddleEast actually was the second
(03:44):
most active by law firms.
Normally it's Asia in 2024lead into a discussion of what
(08:02):
that means for internationalbusiness firms generally, and
what sort of strategies theymight be thinking of adopting, I
would just say, on the one hand,and this is nothing new. We've
said this before. Alan andovary, Sherman sterling is a
major, major step. It's reallythe first very significant, so
(08:22):
called Magic Circle merger intothe US. It happened to work out
well because the financesaligned. That's kind of a
difficult thing for us, UK firmsto accomplish. I would not say
that the HSF, Herbert Smith andKramer 11. Perspective
combination is the same. I lookat that as principally a
(08:44):
litigation play. What I see isKramer 11, which is a fantastic
litigation capability. That'sbasically what they do, although
they obviously have some othertransactional work being
acquired by another standoutlitigation shop, which is
Herbert Smith. I think thatCramer 11 may turn out to be a
(09:04):
very good platform for expandingHSF transactional abilities in
the US, but I think that's waydown the road at this point,
what I'm seeing is just a verygood landing for Herbert Smith
and the very profitable and veryactive litigation market in the
(09:26):
US,
Murray (09:28):
do we wind up with sort of a global litigation? You
know, play on this litigation inthe United States is a major
issue for us, firms and forcompanies coming into the US,
litigation is a major headacheas well.
And typically you'll havelitigation country specific. But
(09:53):
are we talking about maybelooking at litigation on more of
a global perspective? Yes, sure.
I think we are.
Rob Bata (09:59):
I think, I think we're seeing is that disputes
Gerard Tanja (09:59):
Yeah, thanks, Rob, yeah. I think let's, let's focus
generally, and I'm talking aboutdisputes not just litigation, so
including arbitration,mediation, all these other
things, restructurings and thesorts of practices like IP and
bankruptcy and so forth, whichare also very heavily litigation
oriented. This is global, andthis is why also, I point to
(10:22):
some of these litigationboutiques now becoming more
global. The US litigationspecialist Cobra and Kim has
been doing this for some time.
They're all over Asia andelsewhere in the Virgin Islands
and the Caribbean and so forth.
But what we're seeing now isfirms like signature and Cellar
(10:45):
Door legal and others arelooking at exploiting litigation
opportunities. And part of thereason for that is that kind of
American style litigation hasalso made its way into Europe,
and perhaps maybe expandingbeyond Europe. You can certainly
see that, for example, in theNetherlands, where class actions
(11:07):
have become quite common, andfirms, I think, link later, so
has a specific class actiondefense team in Amsterdam, for
that reason. And I think there'sa lot of that going on. I see
that Asher's, for example, justsigned on on behalf of some
claimants. I believe that it is,well, I don't remember, and it
(11:31):
doesn't matter, but it was inthe news today that they've
signed on behalf of what I guessis potential class of claimants
against the particulardefendant. So we're seeing
first on all the two specificissues that you mentioned, which
litigation of all sortsblossoming Singapore, which I
often talk about as being a veryattractive destination. One of
(11:52):
the reasons for that is not onlythe fact that there's tremendous
amount of internationalarbitration, but they also have
particular internationalcommercial court that's very
attractive for litigation anddisputes generally. Anyway.
That's that's my take aboutthose two major transatlantic
mergers. I think there will bemore of that coming up, but
(12:14):
we'll discuss that later.
Gerard, what do you think aboutthese developments, and how do
they affect your thinking aboutis the Japanese and the Chinese
firms coming to Europe. And wewhat the European firms are
thinking about.
definitely see that in Brussels,for example, where two or three
(12:35):
Chinese firms have opened officein 2024 as some of the Japanese
have done. I guess they want tobe very close to the regulatory
center in Europe, as it heavilyaffects them, also in the
context of geopolitical andtrade war situations developing,
(12:57):
etc. So that's clearly a trend,and our expectation is that we
will see some new entrants inthis area from China and
Southeast Asia. So that'scertainly something I can
confirm. The second thing thelitigation boutiques and the
expansion of us litigation firmsinto continental Europe,
(13:19):
particularly in Amsterdam, isindeed linked to a very
favorable mass claim legalsituation in the Netherlands. I
think we have five, six US firmsalready in Amsterdam now
focusing primarily on the on theplaintiff side, of course. And
you see then that not only thelink laters of this world, but
(13:40):
also the larger independentfirms. So the top tier
independent firms are startingto focus on the on the defense
side of the mask claims. It's avery attractive and growing
area. So that's certainlysomething that, I think, that we
can confirm as to your thirdmain topic, the Transatlantic
(14:00):
marriages and what it means forContinental Europe. I think what
we already see right now isapart from the fact that there
will be similar and I I'm notsure whether it will happen in
2025 but definitely, I think innext 18 to 24 months, the ano
move will have followers fromsome of the magic circle. It's
(14:23):
inevitable. I think that issomething that the three four
magic circle firms are lookinginto right now. It will be
difficult, though, I think,because there won't be that many
suitable and appropriatecandidates available. But I
think it will lead to adevelopment that we will see in
the future a kind of a globalelite type of 1015 firms
(14:46):
consisting mainly and dominated,I guess, by US firms. Some will
be US firms. Some will be transthe consequence of transAtlantic
mergers. But I think we will seea group of 10 to 15 in the next
two, three.
Years evolving. What I think ismost interesting and where we
will see, and actually, where wealready see developments, is in
(15:10):
the group of firms, slightlybelow the magic circle. What we
see in continental Europe is, Ithink, two things. One is that
some of those firms, and most ofthem have started in 2024 and I
think, reinforced by the anoSherman and now the Herbert
Smith merger, they have startedwith very aggressive European
(15:36):
expansion policies andstrategies which has
consequences for, let's say, theupper mid market, independent
national firms in severalEuropean jurisdictions. So
that's one thing that we see.
I'll come back to that later. Ithink the other thing what we
see is, and we're involved inone of those projects, is that
(15:56):
UK headquartered internationalfirms, which traditionally have
started their expansion incontinental Europe, are talking
about firm to firm mergers,which is something that didn't
happen a couple of years ago.
And my prediction is that thisis actually the first step of a
(16:17):
more aggressive global expansionstrategy in that they want to
first strengthen their Europeanto slide to a certain extent,
Asian and Middle East restrictedpresence before making the move
into or having conversationswith us worms. So a two step
(16:38):
approach, that's a possibility.
And then there will be, I think,a third group of firms operating
in the typical mid market thatwill try to engage with suitable
US firm somewhere. Let's saybetween the AMLO 100 and AMLO
200 I think that's the threetype of developments that I see.
(17:02):
But for me, the most interestingare developments. Are the first
two that I describe that we seeUK headquartered, international
firms with a traditional, strongcontinental European presence,
rapidly and aggressivelyexpanding and trying to to seal
a merger in the larger Europeanjurisdictions, be it Germany, be
(17:28):
it the Netherlands, be itFrance, Italy, etc, then the
firm to firm, type of UK,headquartered international
firms, second tier. And as Isaid, I think that has
consequences for the mid marketand upper mid market,
continental European firms,because it will have a trickling
(17:51):
down effect. And those a, therewill be targets. And B, which
was already happening in somejurisdictions. And B, I think
the market share of thoseexpanded international firms
will have an effect on theircompetitive positioning. So that
is once part of the story. And Ithink the other two, three
(18:15):
developments that we see andwhether it is influenced by
those transatlantic mergers, I'mnot so sure. But is, on the one
hand, we see an increasingactivity in the Nordics to
establish a Nordic type of firm.
I mean, it should have startedthat development a couple of
(18:38):
years ago was met with someskepticism and cynical
responses, etc, but they seem tobe doing very well in Stockholm
and now also in Denmark. So Ithink there is some merit in
that strategy. And I think wewill see in 2025 at least one or
two similar type of developmentsin the Nordics. At the same
time, we see Beneluxdevelopments, we see Dutch
(19:02):
Belgian Luxembourg firms tryingto integrate more. Some who have
been working in this area, or inthis this Benelux context, are
perhaps even envisaging a theestablishment of a truly
European integrated firm, whichis, I think, the direct response
(19:25):
to transatlantic mergers and thegrowing market share of
international firms in thosejurisdictions. And thirdly, I
think we will see a renewedinterest in the Union and the
advanced type of foreignstructured alliances and
(19:46):
networks, where, currently it ismainly restricted to Germany,
Italy and France. And I thinkwhat those networks will try to
do, what those foreigners willtry to do, is to expand. Into
the Nordics, into southernEurope, into the Netherlands,
etc, and try to add upper midmarket, general business firms
(20:08):
to their network. So I thinkthat's, that's what I I predict
for 2025 will will happen. I'd
Rob Bata (20:15):
like to follow up on one of your points. So
especially in terms of the firstand second scenario that you're
envisioning. Is there anappetite by among the
continental European firms to beacquired or to or to merge with
UK firms? Are they open to thatat this stage?
Gerard Tanja (20:36):
I think they are open to that because they
notice, I think especially themidterm firms operating in the
upper mid market, they are, onthe one hand, confronted with
the growing market share ofinternational competitors in an
area which traditionallybelonged to their typical
market. And on the other hand, Ithink they are being affected by
(21:00):
some of the top tier national,independent firms that are
trying to secure market sharenow that their international
conservation leads to a less ofinbound referral work and taken
away work from those kind offirms. So they are to a certain
extent, it's in everyjurisdiction you have a group of
five to 10 of those upper midmarket firm business firms who
(21:26):
seem to realize increasinglythat an international option for
them is probably the best way tomove forward. I think that we
will see a couple of those firmsdeciding to go international in
the next couple of well years.
Rob Bata (21:46):
And by international you mean beyond their borders in
Europe and or also joining upwith the UK firm potentially,
yeah, and presumably, there areUS firms too that that would be
interested in some of thosepotential mergers or
acquisitions. The question is,would that be attractive? It's a
(22:07):
different story when, when awhen a US firm, comes into the
mix, I would just say aboutthat, that US has shown varying
levels of interest in Europe,you know, so there's, there's a
lot of in and out in Germany,and has been lately, there's
been an uptick, again, aninterest in Europe. But my sense
is that for many US firms, Asiais the ultimately more
(22:33):
significant target, becausethere's so much more to do
there. And I think one of thereasons that US UK mergers are
appealing potentially to USfirms. And I think this was true
for A and O Sherman, is thataccess that UK firms have done
have had so much more often inAsia, partially because of the
(22:56):
colonial history, but in manyways, these kinds of
international mergers,transatlantic mergers, are seen
as a way to enter or enhanceyour presence in Asia. That's
not to say that the US firmsdon't want to be much bigger and
and more competitive and havemore market share in Europe,
because they do, yeah, but, butI think Asia is one of those
(23:19):
markets that it's hard for usfirms to get into on their own,
other than opening an officehere and there.
Gerard Tanja (23:29):
No I agree. I see a limited interest of US firms
to enter some of the Europeanmarkets, and the success that US
firms there are exceptions, butin general, have had in the
major European jurisdiction. Sothe places where you haven't
been that great. Germany is agood example. And I would
(23:53):
actually say that UK firms,international firms
headquartered in the UK have hadrelatively more success than US
firms entering the German,Italian or French markets,
Rob Bata (24:11):
agreed? Yeah, I think, I think that's true. I've seen
that clearly. There are some,you know, Mayor Brown has done
very well, for example, inGermany. You know, a number of
others, but, but no, it'sabsolutely true that that the UK
firms are just, just bettersuited for that. A part of it
is, I think, cultural, not thatthe UK culture is, is that
similar to European, variousEuropean cultures, but I think
(24:34):
there's more of a sense of akind of a comfort level. Um, I
would like to pick up a littlebit on what you said about the
Nordics, because I think it'svery interesting. And also
Benelux, these are all quiteinteresting areas, and I do see
a lot of expansion ofinternational practices into
those areas. Within the Nordics,of course, as you point out, for
(24:55):
example, Akshat and others,expanding regionally. I would.
Think, and I maybe proved wrongon this, but for us, firms, that
part of the world, I think, canbe extremely interesting, both
the Nordics and I might evenadd, the Baltics. Baltics are,
(25:15):
of course, much smaller and, youknow, they're in the shadow of
Russia, so it's a wholedifferent thing. But then again,
these are vibrant economies andvibrant law practices, and
there's a great deal of tech andso forth. And I wouldn't be
surprised if there were some amlaw 200 firm, or am law 150 or
(25:41):
maybe even in the 100 making asignificant move in the Nordics
and or Baltics, over the comingyear, 18 months?
Gerard Tanja (25:50):
Yeah, yeah. I agree. I mean, I say for me, the
Baltics is geopolitically,currently part of of the
Nordics, although they havestrong links to jurisdictions
like Poland, etc, but I thinkthey are more focused currently
on Finland and Sweden than thanany other jurisdiction. And I
(26:10):
think for for a US or a UK firm,and mind you, there are still
several international firmstrying to to enter the market in
the Nordics, I think, as such,the individual practice the
jurisdictions are relativelysmall, but taken together and
(26:31):
following the foreign directinvestment flows between those
countries, I think in certainareas like energy and infra,
biopharma, technology anddigital, etc. I think the Nordic
market is, is very, veryinteresting. And I think what we
will see, apart from more Nordicinitiatives like the shut
(26:53):
initiatives, I think you knowthat that will happen and should
is perfectly able to serve asthe Nordics on behalf of of a US
or Ricky K transatlantic firm, Ithink what we will see is, on
the one hand, firms that havenot yet established their
(27:13):
presence in those regions, andwe had the market entry of CMS
in in Oslo and Stockholm, andthink in the near future in
Copenhagen as well. But firmslike Dentons, etc, are not yet
there. So I think we will see innew efforts of those firms to
(27:35):
enter the market. What I alsosee in that that that is
something I alluded to in myintroduction. Already, there are
quite a few UK headquarteredinternational firms with very
aggressive European expansionpolicies, and I see that in
especially Stockholm, Finland,Copenhagen and Norway as well.
(28:01):
All those firms are expandingtheir Nordic footprint. And yes,
I think you could be right. Athird development could be that
there will be some US firmsactive in those three, four
sectors, where the Nordics areparticularly well positioned to
enter the market in the next 18months, I would not be
(28:24):
surprised. Yeah,
Rob Bata (28:25):
yeah. I agree with that, and I certainly agree with
your point about these belowmagic circle, for maybe even two
tiers below magic circle are UKfirms having very aggressive
European expend if you just lookat, for example, adult Shaws or
field Fisher, they've been kindof on, all on, on a real tear
(28:47):
into Europe and and definitely,I think in both cases, there's a
good deal of interest inNorthern Europe. So I think
you're quite right about that.
Murray (28:56):
This is the end of Part One of GMTs conversation with
venturis partners, Gerard Tanya,please make sure to subscribe
for part two, in which we hearboth Rob and Gerard provide
their thoughts on what We cansee in the upcoming year or so.
(29:23):
You
Rob, welcome to GMT, the podcast for
(00:02):
globally minded law firm leaderswith your host, Robert Bata,
principal of Warwick place legaland Murray Coffey, principal of
M Coffey,between them, Rob and Murray
have about three quarters of acentury's experience working
with some of the most notablelaw firms on the planet. This
podcast is designed to helpthose law firm leaders tasked
(00:24):
with growth make great decisionsabout whether and how to
implement cross border expansionfor their firms and what it
takes to succeed.
And now. Rob Bata,well, here we are back with
another edition of GMT. It'sbeen a minute, and there's been
(00:46):
a lot that has been going on inthe global and domestic legal
market in terms of mergers andtie ups and spin offs and
disinvestment and reinvestment,and so we're going to cover a
lot of that today, and we've gota special guest that that my
colleague, Rob will introducehere in just a minute. But Rob,
I want to say Hello, HappyHolidays to you and your family,
(01:10):
and I hope the sun is shiningwhere you are. It is it is here.
Gerard, I understand it'smiserable there and in your part
of Europe at the moment, butRob, hello, welcome. Great to
see you, as always. How are you?
Rob Bata (01:25):
Hey, I'm good. Hi, Mary. Great to see you. It's
good to do this 2024 recap, andto start 2025 on a good note, on
a high note, and Happy New Yearto you. Happy New Year to our
guest, Gerard Tanya, as you say,it's been a pretty busy year for
law firms looking at theirstrategies, and we're going to
(01:49):
be discussing that with ourfriend Gerard, who has been our
guest before. Just to remindeverybody, Gerard, it was a
founder of heads of mentorsConsulting Group, a European
based consultancy that adviseslaw firms and a lot of
departments professional serviceorganizations on their strategy,
(02:10):
also involved in mergers andlegal process outsourcing and a
whole range of professionalservices related consulting. Her
art has been in the business forquite some time. He spent a fair
number of years with Cliffordchance and also as a diplomat.
So her art, it's a pleasure towelcome you back. We had a very
good session or two with youbefore in 2024 and we look
(02:35):
forward to a good discussion.
Thanks, Robert. So I think tokick off, it would be a good
idea to just kind of set thestage in terms of what's been
going on in the world. And Iguess I'll talk about that a
little bit before we turn tosome of the more in depth
analysis. 2024 saw a number ofvery interesting developments.
Probably the top of the heap wasthe merger between Alan and
(03:00):
Sherman and Sterling. And alsoattracting a lot of attention is
the merger, which has not yettaken place, but is due to close
in, I think, May of this year,between Herbert Smith free
hills, the UK Australian firm,and the New York firm Kramer.
(03:23):
In addition to that, what we'veseen is a continued interest by
US and UK firms in expanding inEurope. And there are a number
of reasons for that, and I'llget to that in a second last
year expansion into the MiddleEast actually was the second
(03:44):
most active by law firms.
Normally it's Asia in 2024lead into a discussion of what
(08:02):
that means for internationalbusiness firms generally, and
what sort of strategies theymight be thinking of adopting, I
would just say, on the one hand,and this is nothing new. We've
said this before. Alan andovary, Sherman sterling is a
major, major step. It's reallythe first very significant, so
(08:22):
called Magic Circle merger intothe US. It happened to work out
well because the financesaligned. That's kind of a
difficult thing for us, UK firmsto accomplish. I would not say
that the HSF, Herbert Smith andKramer 11. Perspective
combination is the same. I lookat that as principally a
(08:44):
litigation play. What I see isKramer 11, which is a fantastic
litigation capability. That'sbasically what they do, although
they obviously have some othertransactional work being
acquired by another standoutlitigation shop, which is
Herbert Smith. I think thatCramer 11 may turn out to be a
(09:04):
very good platform for expandingHSF transactional abilities in
the US, but I think that's waydown the road at this point,
what I'm seeing is just a verygood landing for Herbert Smith
and the very profitable and veryactive litigation market in the
(09:26):
US,
Murray (09:28):
do we wind up with sort of a global litigation? You
know, play on this litigation inthe United States is a major
issue for us, firms and forcompanies coming into the US,
litigation is a major headacheas well.
And typically you'll havelitigation country specific. But
(09:53):
are we talking about maybelooking at litigation on more of
a global perspective? Yes, sure.
I think we are.
Rob Bata (09:59):
I think, I think we're seeing is that disputes
Gerard Tanja (09:59):
Yeah, thanks, Rob, yeah. I think let's, let's focus
generally, and I'm talking aboutdisputes not just litigation, so
including arbitration,mediation, all these other
things, restructurings and thesorts of practices like IP and
bankruptcy and so forth, whichare also very heavily litigation
oriented. This is global, andthis is why also, I point to
(10:22):
some of these litigationboutiques now becoming more
global. The US litigationspecialist Cobra and Kim has
been doing this for some time.
They're all over Asia andelsewhere in the Virgin Islands
and the Caribbean and so forth.
But what we're seeing now isfirms like signature and Cellar
(10:45):
Door legal and others arelooking at exploiting litigation
opportunities. And part of thereason for that is that kind of
American style litigation hasalso made its way into Europe,
and perhaps maybe expandingbeyond Europe. You can certainly
see that, for example, in theNetherlands, where class actions
(11:07):
have become quite common, andfirms, I think, link later, so
has a specific class actiondefense team in Amsterdam, for
that reason. And I think there'sa lot of that going on. I see
that Asher's, for example, justsigned on on behalf of some
claimants. I believe that it is,well, I don't remember, and it
(11:31):
doesn't matter, but it was inthe news today that they've
signed on behalf of what I guessis potential class of claimants
against the particulardefendant. So we're seeing
first on all the two specificissues that you mentioned, which
litigation of all sortsblossoming Singapore, which I
often talk about as being a veryattractive destination. One of
(11:52):
the reasons for that is not onlythe fact that there's tremendous
amount of internationalarbitration, but they also have
particular internationalcommercial court that's very
attractive for litigation anddisputes generally. Anyway.
That's that's my take aboutthose two major transatlantic
mergers. I think there will bemore of that coming up, but
(12:14):
we'll discuss that later.
Gerard, what do you think aboutthese developments, and how do
they affect your thinking aboutis the Japanese and the Chinese
firms coming to Europe. And wewhat the European firms are
thinking about.
definitely see that in Brussels,for example, where two or three
(12:35):
Chinese firms have opened officein 2024 as some of the Japanese
have done. I guess they want tobe very close to the regulatory
center in Europe, as it heavilyaffects them, also in the
context of geopolitical andtrade war situations developing,
(12:57):
etc. So that's clearly a trend,and our expectation is that we
will see some new entrants inthis area from China and
Southeast Asia. So that'scertainly something I can
confirm. The second thing thelitigation boutiques and the
expansion of us litigation firmsinto continental Europe,
(13:19):
particularly in Amsterdam, isindeed linked to a very
favorable mass claim legalsituation in the Netherlands. I
think we have five, six US firmsalready in Amsterdam now
focusing primarily on the on theplaintiff side, of course. And
you see then that not only thelink laters of this world, but
(13:40):
also the larger independentfirms. So the top tier
independent firms are startingto focus on the on the defense
side of the mask claims. It's avery attractive and growing
area. So that's certainlysomething that, I think, that we
can confirm as to your thirdmain topic, the Transatlantic
(14:00):
marriages and what it means forContinental Europe. I think what
we already see right now isapart from the fact that there
will be similar and I I'm notsure whether it will happen in
2025 but definitely, I think innext 18 to 24 months, the ano
move will have followers fromsome of the magic circle. It's
(14:23):
inevitable. I think that issomething that the three four
magic circle firms are lookinginto right now. It will be
difficult, though, I think,because there won't be that many
suitable and appropriatecandidates available. But I
think it will lead to adevelopment that we will see in
the future a kind of a globalelite type of 1015 firms
(14:46):
consisting mainly and dominated,I guess, by US firms. Some will
be US firms. Some will be transthe consequence of transAtlantic
mergers. But I think we will seea group of 10 to 15 in the next
two, three.
Years evolving. What I think ismost interesting and where we
will see, and actually, where wealready see developments, is in
(15:10):
the group of firms, slightlybelow the magic circle. What we
see in continental Europe is, Ithink, two things. One is that
some of those firms, and most ofthem have started in 2024 and I
think, reinforced by the anoSherman and now the Herbert
Smith merger, they have startedwith very aggressive European
(15:36):
expansion policies andstrategies which has
consequences for, let's say, theupper mid market, independent
national firms in severalEuropean jurisdictions. So
that's one thing that we see.
I'll come back to that later. Ithink the other thing what we
see is, and we're involved inone of those projects, is that
(15:56):
UK headquartered internationalfirms, which traditionally have
started their expansion incontinental Europe, are talking
about firm to firm mergers,which is something that didn't
happen a couple of years ago.
And my prediction is that thisis actually the first step of a
(16:17):
more aggressive global expansionstrategy in that they want to
first strengthen their Europeanto slide to a certain extent,
Asian and Middle East restrictedpresence before making the move
into or having conversationswith us worms. So a two step
(16:38):
approach, that's a possibility.
And then there will be, I think,a third group of firms operating
in the typical mid market thatwill try to engage with suitable
US firm somewhere. Let's saybetween the AMLO 100 and AMLO
200 I think that's the threetype of developments that I see.
(17:02):
But for me, the most interestingare developments. Are the first
two that I describe that we seeUK headquartered, international
firms with a traditional, strongcontinental European presence,
rapidly and aggressivelyexpanding and trying to to seal
a merger in the larger Europeanjurisdictions, be it Germany, be
(17:28):
it the Netherlands, be itFrance, Italy, etc, then the
firm to firm, type of UK,headquartered international
firms, second tier. And as Isaid, I think that has
consequences for the mid marketand upper mid market,
continental European firms,because it will have a trickling
(17:51):
down effect. And those a, therewill be targets. And B, which
was already happening in somejurisdictions. And B, I think
the market share of thoseexpanded international firms
will have an effect on theircompetitive positioning. So that
is once part of the story. And Ithink the other two, three
(18:15):
developments that we see andwhether it is influenced by
those transatlantic mergers, I'mnot so sure. But is, on the one
hand, we see an increasingactivity in the Nordics to
establish a Nordic type of firm.
I mean, it should have startedthat development a couple of
(18:38):
years ago was met with someskepticism and cynical
responses, etc, but they seem tobe doing very well in Stockholm
and now also in Denmark. So Ithink there is some merit in
that strategy. And I think wewill see in 2025 at least one or
two similar type of developmentsin the Nordics. At the same
time, we see Beneluxdevelopments, we see Dutch
(19:02):
Belgian Luxembourg firms tryingto integrate more. Some who have
been working in this area, or inthis this Benelux context, are
perhaps even envisaging a theestablishment of a truly
European integrated firm, whichis, I think, the direct response
(19:25):
to transatlantic mergers and thegrowing market share of
international firms in thosejurisdictions. And thirdly, I
think we will see a renewedinterest in the Union and the
advanced type of foreignstructured alliances and
(19:46):
networks, where, currently it ismainly restricted to Germany,
Italy and France. And I thinkwhat those networks will try to
do, what those foreigners willtry to do, is to expand. Into
the Nordics, into southernEurope, into the Netherlands,
etc, and try to add upper midmarket, general business firms
(20:08):
to their network. So I thinkthat's, that's what I I predict
for 2025 will will happen. I'd
Rob Bata (20:15):
like to follow up on one of your points. So
especially in terms of the firstand second scenario that you're
envisioning. Is there anappetite by among the
continental European firms to beacquired or to or to merge with
UK firms? Are they open to thatat this stage?
Gerard Tanja (20:36):
I think they are open to that because they
notice, I think especially themidterm firms operating in the
upper mid market, they are, onthe one hand, confronted with
the growing market share ofinternational competitors in an
area which traditionallybelonged to their typical
market. And on the other hand, Ithink they are being affected by
(21:00):
some of the top tier national,independent firms that are
trying to secure market sharenow that their international
conservation leads to a less ofinbound referral work and taken
away work from those kind offirms. So they are to a certain
extent, it's in everyjurisdiction you have a group of
five to 10 of those upper midmarket firm business firms who
(21:26):
seem to realize increasinglythat an international option for
them is probably the best way tomove forward. I think that we
will see a couple of those firmsdeciding to go international in
the next couple of well years.
Rob Bata (21:46):
And by international you mean beyond their borders in
Europe and or also joining upwith the UK firm potentially,
yeah, and presumably, there areUS firms too that that would be
interested in some of thosepotential mergers or
acquisitions. The question is,would that be attractive? It's a
(22:07):
different story when, when awhen a US firm, comes into the
mix, I would just say aboutthat, that US has shown varying
levels of interest in Europe,you know, so there's, there's a
lot of in and out in Germany,and has been lately, there's
been an uptick, again, aninterest in Europe. But my sense
is that for many US firms, Asiais the ultimately more
(22:33):
significant target, becausethere's so much more to do
there. And I think one of thereasons that US UK mergers are
appealing potentially to USfirms. And I think this was true
for A and O Sherman, is thataccess that UK firms have done
have had so much more often inAsia, partially because of the
(22:56):
colonial history, but in manyways, these kinds of
international mergers,transatlantic mergers, are seen
as a way to enter or enhanceyour presence in Asia. That's
not to say that the US firmsdon't want to be much bigger and
and more competitive and havemore market share in Europe,
because they do, yeah, but, butI think Asia is one of those
(23:19):
markets that it's hard for usfirms to get into on their own,
other than opening an officehere and there.
Gerard Tanja (23:29):
No I agree. I see a limited interest of US firms
to enter some of the Europeanmarkets, and the success that US
firms there are exceptions, butin general, have had in the
major European jurisdiction. Sothe places where you haven't
been that great. Germany is agood example. And I would
(23:53):
actually say that UK firms,international firms
headquartered in the UK have hadrelatively more success than US
firms entering the German,Italian or French markets,
Rob Bata (24:11):
agreed? Yeah, I think, I think that's true. I've seen
that clearly. There are some,you know, Mayor Brown has done
very well, for example, inGermany. You know, a number of
others, but, but no, it'sabsolutely true that that the UK
firms are just, just bettersuited for that. A part of it
is, I think, cultural, not thatthe UK culture is, is that
similar to European, variousEuropean cultures, but I think
(24:34):
there's more of a sense of akind of a comfort level. Um, I
would like to pick up a littlebit on what you said about the
Nordics, because I think it'svery interesting. And also
Benelux, these are all quiteinteresting areas, and I do see
a lot of expansion ofinternational practices into
those areas. Within the Nordics,of course, as you point out, for
(24:55):
example, Akshat and others,expanding regionally. I would.
Think, and I maybe proved wrongon this, but for us, firms, that
part of the world, I think, canbe extremely interesting, both
the Nordics and I might evenadd, the Baltics. Baltics are,
(25:15):
of course, much smaller and, youknow, they're in the shadow of
Russia, so it's a wholedifferent thing. But then again,
these are vibrant economies andvibrant law practices, and
there's a great deal of tech andso forth. And I wouldn't be
surprised if there were some amlaw 200 firm, or am law 150 or
(25:41):
maybe even in the 100 making asignificant move in the Nordics
and or Baltics, over the comingyear, 18 months?
Gerard Tanja (25:50):
Yeah, yeah. I agree. I mean, I say for me, the
Baltics is geopolitically,currently part of of the
Nordics, although they havestrong links to jurisdictions
like Poland, etc, but I thinkthey are more focused currently
on Finland and Sweden than thanany other jurisdiction. And I
(26:10):
think for for a US or a UK firm,and mind you, there are still
several international firmstrying to to enter the market in
the Nordics, I think, as such,the individual practice the
jurisdictions are relativelysmall, but taken together and
(26:31):
following the foreign directinvestment flows between those
countries, I think in certainareas like energy and infra,
biopharma, technology anddigital, etc. I think the Nordic
market is, is very, veryinteresting. And I think what we
will see, apart from more Nordicinitiatives like the shut
(26:53):
initiatives, I think you knowthat that will happen and should
is perfectly able to serve asthe Nordics on behalf of of a US
or Ricky K transatlantic firm, Ithink what we will see is, on
the one hand, firms that havenot yet established their
(27:13):
presence in those regions, andwe had the market entry of CMS
in in Oslo and Stockholm, andthink in the near future in
Copenhagen as well. But firmslike Dentons, etc, are not yet
there. So I think we will see innew efforts of those firms to
(27:35):
enter the market. What I alsosee in that that that is
something I alluded to in myintroduction. Already, there are
quite a few UK headquarteredinternational firms with very
aggressive European expansionpolicies, and I see that in
especially Stockholm, Finland,Copenhagen and Norway as well.
(28:01):
All those firms are expandingtheir Nordic footprint. And yes,
I think you could be right. Athird development could be that
there will be some US firmsactive in those three, four
sectors, where the Nordics areparticularly well positioned to
enter the market in the next 18months, I would not be
(28:24):
surprised. Yeah,
Rob Bata (28:25):
yeah. I agree with that, and I certainly agree with
your point about these belowmagic circle, for maybe even two
tiers below magic circle are UKfirms having very aggressive
European expend if you just lookat, for example, adult Shaws or
field Fisher, they've been kindof on, all on, on a real tear
(28:47):
into Europe and and definitely,I think in both cases, there's a
good deal of interest inNorthern Europe. So I think
you're quite right about that.
Murray (28:56):
This is the end of Part One of GMTs conversation with
venturis partners, Gerard Tanya,please make sure to subscribe
for part two, in which we hearboth Rob and Gerard provide
their thoughts on what We cansee in the upcoming year or so.
(29:23):
You
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