January 19, 2025 • 11 mins
Welcome back to the GMT Podcast. In this second part of our two-part conversation, co-hosts Murray Coffey and Rob Bata are joined by Gerard Tanja from Venturis Consulting Group. Together, they continue exploring the evolving landscape of global legal markets, focusing on U.S. expansion, cross-border mergers, and predictions for the year ahead.
If you missed Part 1, be sure to catch up here.
Key Discussion Points:
- How Magic Circle firms are evolving their strategies and looking beyond traditional financial centers in the U.S.
- The rise of mid-market consolidation across Europe and its impact on the global legal landscape.
- Predictions for 2025 and beyond, including potential surprise mergers and sector-driven growth initiatives.
Predictions to Watch:
Here are just a couple of the many predictions shared by our guests. Be sure to listen to the full episode to catch all of their insights.
- Gerard Tanja: "I do think we will see firm-to-firm mergers of UK-headquartered international firms which have a main presence in continental European jurisdictions. ."
- Rob Bata: "We will see U.S. firms continuing to show tremendous interest in Asia, especially as they navigate the challenges of decoupling from China."
Do not miss out. Tune in now to hear the full range of predictions and insights.
Contact Rob and Murray:
Robert C. Bata, Founder and Principal, WarwickPlace Legal
Email: rbata@warwickplace.com
Murray M. Coffey, Founder and Principal, M Coffey
Email: murray@mcoffey.net
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Murray (00:00):
Music. Welcome to part two of GMTs conversation with
(00:06):
venturis partners, Gerard Tania.
Listen closely. We havepredictions for what to expect
in the year to come. I have aquestion for both of you
actually on something Gerhardtalked about earlier, and rob
you referenced. Rob You weresaying part of the success of
the AO Sherman. And I think theidea of success is still
(00:29):
pending, but it looks like it'sin a good pair of was due to
them being able to match upfinancially. It's not always the
case when you're bringing in amagic circle firm merging with a
larger US firm. So the questionI have is, given that that's
often the case, will we maybesee some of the Magic Circle
(00:49):
firms looking outside of NewYork or the Northeast of the
United States in terms of tryingto find a merger partner?
Because there are some. Thereare some very well positioned
firms in the Midwest, in theSouthwest, Southeast, that could
potentially be partners thatmight have a different financial
(01:10):
structure. So just kind ofcurious as to Will we see the
magic circle firms that want toget into the US, pushing the
boundaries of sort of wherethey're the geographic
boundaries of where they'relooking. New York is always the
gateway into the US, but there'svery large markets and very
capable firms across thecountry.
Rob Bata (01:34):
Yeah, no, I think that's a very good question, and
I think that, in fact, I'm awarethat a number of magic circle
firms have looked beyond NewYork and and it's also no secret
that some of those firms thatare trying to succeed in the US
market are doing it through justa series of lateral
acquisitions, you know, but someof those have been outside of
(01:56):
New York, although they tend tofocus on Silicon Valley and so
forth. I think the non magiccircle firms, clearly and
definitely are looking atoutside of New York as well. The
difference is that for firms, Ihave to say, I really, I hate
the term magic circle, but it's,I guess it's a convenient
(02:20):
descriptor. But you know, forthe types of practices that the
Magic Circle firms have and wantto maintain, New York has to be
there as a financial center. NewYork and London are essentially
the two significant financialcenters in the world. And so if
(02:42):
you have one, you've got to havethe other one too, as long as
you want to be the US. But, but,yeah, I agree that there's
certainly plenty of firms, sowhether in the Midwest,
particularly Chicago, or inTexas and in Los Angeles, that
that would be interesting. Andby the way, you know Alan over
he had discussions with withMelbourne and Myers, which is a
(03:03):
California firm that wentnowhere, but they've looked and
I think they've had discussionswith others too. And I think
what you're also seeing is that,and this is another interesting
area that maybe we won't havetime to get into today, but
there is a tremendous amount ofconsolidation going on within
(03:23):
the US, some some fairly bigmergers, but also a trend within
the US to go beyond what havebeen, what still are, the sort
of a cities, and Opening uppresence in formerly B cities,
C, cities, aka not major, notpreviously major commercial
(03:47):
financial centers, which is whywe're seeing from opening Salt
Lake City, Denver, Texas isclearly no longer anything but
class A. But you know, you'reseeing Birmingham, Alabama,
Charlotte, North Carolina, is amajor, major destination. So
(04:07):
there is that development havingto do with lots of things, with
social movements, with youngprofessionals moving to
different parts of the world,rate pressures, but also the
need to become national, or atleast Super Regional. And I'll
just say this one thing, but itdeserves a bigger discussion. I
(04:28):
think for many of these firmswhich have not been present
internationally, or have notsucceeded when they tried to be
present internationally, some ofthese larger domestic mergers in
the US are kind of the laststep, having to achieve a kind
of critical mass before theystart seriously thinking about
(04:50):
overseas strategies. So, but sothat's a long answer to your
question. But yes, the shortanswer
Gerard Tanja (04:59):
is yes. And maybe Murray just, just perhaps as a
question to rob as well. Butwhen I was at Clifford Chance,
we had discussions with aCalifornia based firm which
didn't result in anything.
Wasn't very successful, but I dothink, I do think that some of
the, let's say, tier two firmsUK, headquartered international
(05:21):
firms that have an interest inentering into the US and have a
more of a sector focused policystrategy, I think for them,
whether it's digital, whetherit's energy, etc, I would think
that an entry into the US, notvia New York, could be a viable
(05:43):
strategy.
Rob Bata (05:48):
But no, I think that's right. And I will say, without
any detail, the personalknowledge of the fact that that
is, in fact, the strategy of anumber of those firms, and it
makes perfect sense. I thinkthat I like to think back on
London in the late 90s, when USfirms began to come in in a more
(06:12):
serious way. And that was, ofcourse, before y 2k and the big
global financial crisis and soforth. But you had a number of
firms that were not Wall Streetfirms, that were smaller
Midwestern firms and so forththat came into London
essentially wanting to acquire atypical market leading London
(06:34):
type of practice, but one thatthey didn't have themselves and
failed for that reason. And hadto, had to withdraw, or had to
scale down, and so forth. And Ithink that may not be foremost
in the minds of the UK firms,but I think it's that sort of
scenario that they would like toavoid. You don't want to waste a
lot of time and energy trying toget big in New York when that's
(06:57):
not really the sector, as youput it her art. There are other
sectors that you're focused onthat you could do a lot better
with, with a firm from I don'tknow, St Louis or Kansas City or
who knows. And I think sectorfocus as a general matter, is
going to be more and moresignificant, not just in the US,
but but but around the world.
And that's why we're that's oneof the reasons I think that
(07:21):
litigation has reared its uglyhead so successfully and so
comprehensively around theworld, because it's it's a
sector, and there are varioussectors within it that people
have come To realize it can bequite successful and profitable.
So
Murray (07:44):
agree with that. Well, now we've come to the time in
our podcast where we've we'vespent enough time looking over
our shoulders. Now we're goingto look forward. So we're going
to hear from our guest Gerard totalk to us a little bit about
his predictions for 2025, andbeyond, maybe his top three, and
then we'll hear from Rob, andthen we'll close out, and we'll
(08:06):
have another, another chapter ofGMT under our belt. So with it,
Gerard thoughts, threepredictions, and we will hold
you to these.
Gerard Tanja (08:16):
Okay, yeah, I think my my top three
predictions for ContinentalEurope, for Europe and 2025, is
that one. I do think we will seefirm to firm merges of UK
headquartered internationalfirms which have a main presence
(08:38):
in continental Europeanjurisdictions. I think that is
something that that will happenin 2025 secondly, I do think
that we will see moreinitiatives like the Nordic
initiative of shut or the PNinitiatives firms that want to
(08:59):
really have an integratedEuropean presence. That's my
second prediction. And thirdly,I think that as a consequence of
those developments we will seein several European
jurisdictions, we will seeconsolidation in the mid and the
upper mid market. I think thatis what, what? What will happen
(09:20):
as a consequence of thoseinternational, European
developments,
Murray (09:26):
right? Alright,
Rob Bata (09:28):
those, those all sound pretty, pretty good to me. And
even if I don't hold you to it,they sound eminently logical.
Well, I agree with those. Iwould also say that in terms of
US UK, we will definitely seesignificant movement of non
magic circle firm coming intothe US or expanding in the US,
(09:52):
possibly through merger,potentially through just some
lateral acquisitions. I do thinkthat. That one of the Magic
Circle firms that so far hasonly grown through laterals may
surprise us by making anacquisition or a merger within
the US. I also believe that USfirms will continue to have a
(10:17):
tremendous amount of interest inAsia, largely because they have
to make their way around China.
The decoupling from China willcontinue. I think that we will
be surprised that there may besome new entrance into Hong
Kong. No great wave, but thereis a FinTech and crypto practice
in in Hong Kong, not to mentiondisputes that notwithstanding
(10:39):
the situation there, whichcauses a lot of concern for a
number of reasons, still remainsattractive. And keeping in mind
that until their MMB isgenerally convertible, Hong Kong
continues to be an extremelyimportant financial center. And
beyond that, I would say that wewill see much more activity in
(11:00):
Latin America, expansion fromEuropean firms into Latin
America. So those are my threemain ones.
Murray (11:10):
Alright. Well, we'll, we'll write those down and put
them in the time capsule and andcrack em open next January and
see see how we did.
Rob Bata (11:18):
We're in 100 years.
400 years. All right, a pleasureto have you on as always. And
thank you very much for takingthe time. Murray, it's always
fun to be with you. Thank youvery much.
Gerard Tanja (11:33):
Thank you. Thank you. And fun as always. Thank
you very much.
Rob Bata (11:37):
Yeah, and Happy New Year to everyone. Bye, 2020. A
healthy one. And so successful,
Murray (11:43):
healthy and prosperous.
Thank you absolutely.
Unknown (11:46):
Thank you. Take care.
Bye, bye.
Music. Welcome to part two of GMTs conversation with
(00:06):
venturis partners, Gerard Tania.
Listen closely. We havepredictions for what to expect
in the year to come. I have aquestion for both of you
actually on something Gerhardtalked about earlier, and rob
you referenced. Rob You weresaying part of the success of
the AO Sherman. And I think theidea of success is still
(00:29):
pending, but it looks like it'sin a good pair of was due to
them being able to match upfinancially. It's not always the
case when you're bringing in amagic circle firm merging with a
larger US firm. So the questionI have is, given that that's
often the case, will we maybesee some of the Magic Circle
(00:49):
firms looking outside of NewYork or the Northeast of the
United States in terms of tryingto find a merger partner?
Because there are some. Thereare some very well positioned
firms in the Midwest, in theSouthwest, Southeast, that could
potentially be partners thatmight have a different financial
(01:10):
structure. So just kind ofcurious as to Will we see the
magic circle firms that want toget into the US, pushing the
boundaries of sort of wherethey're the geographic
boundaries of where they'relooking. New York is always the
gateway into the US, but there'svery large markets and very
capable firms across thecountry.
Rob Bata (01:34):
Yeah, no, I think that's a very good question, and
I think that, in fact, I'm awarethat a number of magic circle
firms have looked beyond NewYork and and it's also no secret
that some of those firms thatare trying to succeed in the US
market are doing it through justa series of lateral
acquisitions, you know, but someof those have been outside of
(01:56):
New York, although they tend tofocus on Silicon Valley and so
forth. I think the non magiccircle firms, clearly and
definitely are looking atoutside of New York as well. The
difference is that for firms, Ihave to say, I really, I hate
the term magic circle, but it's,I guess it's a convenient
(02:20):
descriptor. But you know, forthe types of practices that the
Magic Circle firms have and wantto maintain, New York has to be
there as a financial center. NewYork and London are essentially
the two significant financialcenters in the world. And so if
(02:42):
you have one, you've got to havethe other one too, as long as
you want to be the US. But, but,yeah, I agree that there's
certainly plenty of firms, sowhether in the Midwest,
particularly Chicago, or inTexas and in Los Angeles, that
that would be interesting. Andby the way, you know Alan over
he had discussions with withMelbourne and Myers, which is a
(03:03):
California firm that wentnowhere, but they've looked and
I think they've had discussionswith others too. And I think
what you're also seeing is that,and this is another interesting
area that maybe we won't havetime to get into today, but
there is a tremendous amount ofconsolidation going on within
(03:23):
the US, some some fairly bigmergers, but also a trend within
the US to go beyond what havebeen, what still are, the sort
of a cities, and Opening uppresence in formerly B cities,
C, cities, aka not major, notpreviously major commercial
(03:47):
financial centers, which is whywe're seeing from opening Salt
Lake City, Denver, Texas isclearly no longer anything but
class A. But you know, you'reseeing Birmingham, Alabama,
Charlotte, North Carolina, is amajor, major destination. So
(04:07):
there is that development havingto do with lots of things, with
social movements, with youngprofessionals moving to
different parts of the world,rate pressures, but also the
need to become national, or atleast Super Regional. And I'll
just say this one thing, but itdeserves a bigger discussion. I
(04:28):
think for many of these firmswhich have not been present
internationally, or have notsucceeded when they tried to be
present internationally, some ofthese larger domestic mergers in
the US are kind of the laststep, having to achieve a kind
of critical mass before theystart seriously thinking about
(04:50):
overseas strategies. So, but sothat's a long answer to your
question. But yes, the shortanswer
Gerard Tanja (04:59):
is yes. And maybe Murray just, just perhaps as a
question to rob as well. Butwhen I was at Clifford Chance,
we had discussions with aCalifornia based firm which
didn't result in anything.
Wasn't very successful, but I dothink, I do think that some of
the, let's say, tier two firmsUK, headquartered international
(05:21):
firms that have an interest inentering into the US and have a
more of a sector focused policystrategy, I think for them,
whether it's digital, whetherit's energy, etc, I would think
that an entry into the US, notvia New York, could be a viable
(05:43):
strategy.
Rob Bata (05:48):
But no, I think that's right. And I will say, without
any detail, the personalknowledge of the fact that that
is, in fact, the strategy of anumber of those firms, and it
makes perfect sense. I thinkthat I like to think back on
London in the late 90s, when USfirms began to come in in a more
(06:12):
serious way. And that was, ofcourse, before y 2k and the big
global financial crisis and soforth. But you had a number of
firms that were not Wall Streetfirms, that were smaller
Midwestern firms and so forththat came into London
essentially wanting to acquire atypical market leading London
(06:34):
type of practice, but one thatthey didn't have themselves and
failed for that reason. And hadto, had to withdraw, or had to
scale down, and so forth. And Ithink that may not be foremost
in the minds of the UK firms,but I think it's that sort of
scenario that they would like toavoid. You don't want to waste a
lot of time and energy trying toget big in New York when that's
(06:57):
not really the sector, as youput it her art. There are other
sectors that you're focused onthat you could do a lot better
with, with a firm from I don'tknow, St Louis or Kansas City or
who knows. And I think sectorfocus as a general matter, is
going to be more and moresignificant, not just in the US,
but but but around the world.
And that's why we're that's oneof the reasons I think that
(07:21):
litigation has reared its uglyhead so successfully and so
comprehensively around theworld, because it's it's a
sector, and there are varioussectors within it that people
have come To realize it can bequite successful and profitable.
So
Murray (07:44):
agree with that. Well, now we've come to the time in
our podcast where we've we'vespent enough time looking over
our shoulders. Now we're goingto look forward. So we're going
to hear from our guest Gerard totalk to us a little bit about
his predictions for 2025, andbeyond, maybe his top three, and
then we'll hear from Rob, andthen we'll close out, and we'll
(08:06):
have another, another chapter ofGMT under our belt. So with it,
Gerard thoughts, threepredictions, and we will hold
you to these.
Gerard Tanja (08:16):
Okay, yeah, I think my my top three
predictions for ContinentalEurope, for Europe and 2025, is
that one. I do think we will seefirm to firm merges of UK
headquartered internationalfirms which have a main presence
(08:38):
in continental Europeanjurisdictions. I think that is
something that that will happenin 2025 secondly, I do think
that we will see moreinitiatives like the Nordic
initiative of shut or the PNinitiatives firms that want to
(08:59):
really have an integratedEuropean presence. That's my
second prediction. And thirdly,I think that as a consequence of
those developments we will seein several European
jurisdictions, we will seeconsolidation in the mid and the
upper mid market. I think thatis what, what? What will happen
(09:20):
as a consequence of thoseinternational, European
developments,
Murray (09:26):
right? Alright,
Rob Bata (09:28):
those, those all sound pretty, pretty good to me. And
even if I don't hold you to it,they sound eminently logical.
Well, I agree with those. Iwould also say that in terms of
US UK, we will definitely seesignificant movement of non
magic circle firm coming intothe US or expanding in the US,
(09:52):
possibly through merger,potentially through just some
lateral acquisitions. I do thinkthat. That one of the Magic
Circle firms that so far hasonly grown through laterals may
surprise us by making anacquisition or a merger within
the US. I also believe that USfirms will continue to have a
(10:17):
tremendous amount of interest inAsia, largely because they have
to make their way around China.
The decoupling from China willcontinue. I think that we will
be surprised that there may besome new entrance into Hong
Kong. No great wave, but thereis a FinTech and crypto practice
in in Hong Kong, not to mentiondisputes that notwithstanding
(10:39):
the situation there, whichcauses a lot of concern for a
number of reasons, still remainsattractive. And keeping in mind
that until their MMB isgenerally convertible, Hong Kong
continues to be an extremelyimportant financial center. And
beyond that, I would say that wewill see much more activity in
(11:00):
Latin America, expansion fromEuropean firms into Latin
America. So those are my threemain ones.
Murray (11:10):
Alright. Well, we'll, we'll write those down and put
them in the time capsule and andcrack em open next January and
see see how we did.
Rob Bata (11:18):
We're in 100 years.
400 years. All right, a pleasureto have you on as always. And
thank you very much for takingthe time. Murray, it's always
fun to be with you. Thank youvery much.
Gerard Tanja (11:33):
Thank you. Thank you. And fun as always. Thank
you very much.
Rob Bata (11:37):
Yeah, and Happy New Year to everyone. Bye, 2020. A
healthy one. And so successful,
Murray (11:43):
healthy and prosperous.
Thank you absolutely.
Unknown (11:46):
Thank you. Take care.
Bye, bye.
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