Host Neeta Bidwai examines seven-day trade policy reversals creating investment paralysis, analyzes Brookings research on US dollar's 60% global reserve share threats, explores Dallas Fed survey showing executive anxiety despite conservative alignment, and breaks down S&P Global data: AI project failures jumped from 17% in 2024 to 42% in 2025.
We cover:
⚖️ Trade Policy Instability: Seven-day reversal from "worst tax hike since 1930s" to limited tariff implementation triggers investment paralysis across major institutions.
💰 Dollar Dominance Risk: Brookings analysis reveals US dollar maintains 60% of global reserves and 64% of world debt, but policy threats challenge structural advantages.
🛢️ Executive Sentiment Crisis: Dallas Fed survey exposes severe anxiety among oil/gas executives despite conservative alignment, signaling deep structural concerns.
📉 Investment Freeze: Major institutions halt M&A deals while private equity accelerates exits as policy uncertainty creates market paralysis.
🔍 Financial Distress: 401(k) hardship withdrawals exceed historical averages by 15-20%, indicating widespread financial stress among workers.
🤖 AI Failure Surge: S&P Global data reveals AI project failures surge from 17% in 2024 to 42% in 2025, creating SaaS revenue headwinds.
📊 AI Confidence Gap: 56% of experts expect positive AI outcomes while only 17% of public shares optimism.
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Highlights:
00:00 Market Overview
00:27 Trade Policy Turbulence
02:15 Economic Reactions and Market Impact
02:49 China Retaliation & Non-Tariff Barriers
03:49 Trade Policy Challenges
08:03 Uncertainty in Economy
13:39 AI in Focus
15:56 Strategic Outlook
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Referenced:
• M&A frozen: https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/tariff-turmoil-puts-freeze-global-ma-dealmaking-2025-04-04/
• China choking exports: https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/12/china-trade-war-exports-00287123
• Commerce does not comprehend Social Security: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/03/21/social-security-lutnick-fraudsters/82603442007/
• 401K hardship withdrawals: https://news.bloomberglaw.com/bankruptcy-law/americans-are-tapping-401ks-more-than-usual-empower-ceo-says
• Oil & gas execs scared: https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/des/2025/2501#tab-comments
• Full list: https://youtu.be/DlRBkGoleJ8
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