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0:52 190 Corn Yield?
5:40 US Weather
7:28 Big Brazil Corn Crop
9:14 Farmer Sentiment
11:35 Biofuel and Senate
🌽 Corn Yield Chatter Heats Up! 🔥
There's buzz in the trade about US corn yields. Some analysts suggest yields could be 2–5% above trend, placing the national average anywhere from 184.6 to 190.1 bpa. But others argue that such numbers are unlikely due to record acreage (95.2M planted) and reduced input use from farmers. I’m not picking a side—but the chatter is loud enough to mention. 👂💬
🌦️ Weather Watch: Scattered Rains & Heat ☀️
Over the next 5 days, only scattered rainfall is expected—mainly in Minnesota & Wisconsin.
🌀 Euro vs. GFS disagreement: Euro model = wetter outlook
GFS model = dry in the east
🔥 Above-normal temps will persist, and the 8–14 day forecast suggests more heat (though ensemble data is cooler).
🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Update: StoneX Raises the Bar 📈
StoneX now pegs Brazil’s corn crop at a record 136.1 MMT, up from 134 MMT, with the second crop at 108.2 MMT.
🫘 Brazil soybean forecast also bumped up slightly to 168.8 MMT.
🇺🇸 For reference, USDA’s Brazil corn estimate is still at 130 MMT—that’s a 240M bushel difference! USDA & CONAB update next week.
📉 Farmer Sentiment Drops on Trade Worries 🧠
The Purdue/CME Ag Barometer fell to 146 in June, down 12 points from May.
🌍 Main concern? Ag exports.
46% believe Trump’s tariffs will hurt income.
27% believe they’ll help.
🛢️ Biofuel Battle: Big Oil vs. Farmers ⚔️
A fight is brewing over the 45Z tax credit.
Farm groups want it limited to feedstocks from North America 🌎
The oil industry opposes this, saying it would raise fuel prices ⛽
👉 This policy would boost soybean oil demand and align with Trump’s “America First” agenda. 🇺🇸
🔔 Don't forget to like, subscribe, and drop your thoughts in the comments! Let's talk grain markets! 🌾🗣️
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