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0:00 China/Africa
2:45 Row Crop Selloff
6:35 188 National Corn Yield??
8:40 Wheat
9:42 Monster Brazil Corn Crop
10:52 Fertilizer and Sanctions
12:34 Grain Shipments
🌍🇨🇳 China Targets Angola for Major Ag Expansion! 🌽🌱
A Chinese state-owned giant, Citic Ltd., is investing $250 million to build massive soybean and corn farms across 247,000 acres in Angola! 🚜 Roughly 60% of production will head to China, with the rest staying local. Angola’s soils are similar to Brazil’s Cerrado, making this a potential ag powerhouse with the right tech and investment. 🤖🌾
📦 TRADE + POLICY
China and the US have agreed on a framework to ease trade tensions... but no final deal yet. Meanwhile, Angola plans more ag deals with China, with an eye on exporting 500,000+ mt of food. Stay tuned for the geopolitics of grain! ⚖️🌐
🌧️📉 MARKETS MOVE ON WEATHER & TRADE
Corn and soybean futures slipped Monday as forecasts called for rain in the Corn Belt, muting concerns about upcoming heat. 🌡️ Wheat dropped too, pressured by Russian exports, but saw support from Bangladesh’s new U.S. wheat deal.
🌽 CROP CONDITIONS STRONG
Corn: 74% good/excellent—best since 2016! 🌟
Soybeans: 68% G/E—well above average but down slightly
Spring Wheat: Ratings fell again 🌾
Winter Wheat: 73% harvested—one of the slowest paces in a decade ⏳
🇧🇷 BRAZIL CORN OUTLOOK IMPROVES
AgRural raised Brazil's corn estimate to 136.3 MMT, citing better yields for the second crop. 🌽 Harvest is 55% done — still behind last year. Brazil’s crop is now seen 170 million bushels larger than USDA's latest figure. 🔼📈
🚫 FERTILIZER SUPPLY RISK?
Potential U.S. secondary sanctions on Russian exports could hit Latin America's fertilizer supply, especially Brazil and Mexico. Both nations are heavily dependent on Russian imports—a major risk to crops like corn and avocados. 🧪⚠️
🚢 EXPORTS: MIXED BAG
Corn: 983k mt — down 25% from last week 📉
Soybeans: 365k mt — up 141% from last week 🔼
Wheat: 732k mt — up 152% YoY 🚀
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