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0:00 Mammoth Corn Crop
5:07 BIG Acreage Changes
7:13 Soybean Rally
10:46 Cargill Revenue Down
12:47 Stock Market Rally
14:38 Corn Flash
🌽 Record Corn Crop Sends Prices Tumbling 📉
The USDA dropped a bombshell Tuesday, projecting a record-shattering US corn crop 🌽💥. National yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa, smashing all trade estimates and July’s forecast. Production came in at a jaw-dropping 16.74 billion bushels — that’s 1.4B bushels (9%) more than the previous record in 2023. Corn acreage was also bumped up to 97.3 million, fueled by favorable weather across much of the Corn Belt. After the news, Dec25 corn slid about 13¢ to close near $3.95/bu. 📉
🌱 Prevent Plant & Acreage Update
New FSA data shows 1.8M prevented plant acres of corn (down 32% YoY), 1.2M acres for soybeans (up 55%), and 0.3M acres for wheat (down 29%). Actual plantings came in at 96.5M corn, 79.8M soybeans, and 48.7M wheat — hinting corn acreage may be revised even higher later.
🫘 Soybean Surprise
Soybean acres were cut to 80.9M — the biggest YoY drop in modern history 📉. Production is now seen at 4.29B bu, but with a record 53.6 bpa yield. Nov25 soybeans rallied nearly 6¢, settling near $10.33/bu. 📈
🏭 Cargill Hit by Weak Grain Markets
Cargill’s revenue slid to $154B — its lowest since 2021 — amid slumping crop prices and tight beef margins. The company has cut ~8,000 jobs and restructured from five to three business units.
📊 Stock Market Pops on CPI Data
July CPI met expectations — +0.2% MoM, +2.7% YoY — sending the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to record highs 🚀. Odds of a September Fed rate cut are now near 90%.
🚢 Corn Flash Sale to Mexico
US exporters sold 315,488 mt of corn to Mexico — most for the 2025/26 marketing year. 🇲🇽
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