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0:00 Iran and Markets
3:02 Soybean and Wheat Rally
4:45 Drought + US Weather
9:12 Export Sales
10:31 Ethanol Production
11:32 Flash Sale
12:02 Cattle on Feed
🔥 Markets React to Middle East Tensions 🌍💥
Oil prices surged Sunday night after U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, with President Trump warning of further action and Iran vowing “everlasting consequences.” Despite the drama, no physical disruptions to crude shipments through the vital Strait of Hormuz have occurred. 🌊⛽️ Some analysts say the recent $10/bbl spike is already pricing in risk. Grain traders? Not impressed—wheat opened lower despite geopolitical fireworks. 📉
🌱 Soybeans & Wheat Hit Highs... Then Fade 📈
Friday brought fresh multi-month highs in soybean and spring wheat futures! 🚀
• Soybeans (Nov25) nearly posted a calendar-year high, fueled by bullish biofuel news and a strong Brazilian real 🇧🇷
• Spring Wheat (Dec25) led the wheat complex higher on Middle East tension and U.S. crop concerns 🌾
But both markets faded into the weekend.
🌧️ Drought Conditions Improve in Corn Belt 🌽
USDA’s latest drought monitor shows big progress:
• Only 7.5% of the Corn Belt is in drought vs. 32% earlier this year!
• IA, WI, MN saw improvement. 🌧️
• ND and NE also got relief
• But KS? Slight deterioration 😕
🔹 Corn: 17% in drought
🔹 Soybeans: 13%
🔹 Winter Wheat: 14%
🔹 Spring Wheat: 22%
🔹 Cattle: 19%
🚢 Export Sales Rebound 📦
• Corn: 903,800 mt—Japan 🇯🇵 leads
• Soybeans: 539,500 mt—Germany 🇩🇪 surprise buyer
• Wheat: 427,200 mt—Taiwan 🇹🇼 tops the list
Corn sales are now +26% vs. last year! 🟢
🍺 Ethanol Stays Strong, Margins Weaken
• Production: 1.11mil bbl/day (↓1% WoW, ↑5% YoY)
• Stocks: 24.12mil bbl (seasonally high)
• Margins slipping per Reuters 💸
Still, output remains near record highs. 🚛
🐄 Cattle on Feed: Neutral to Bullish 📋
• Total: 11.4 million head (↓1% YoY)
• Placements: 92% of last year (bullish surprise)
• Marketings: 90% of last year
Ongoing tight supplies continue to support the market. 📈
👇 Don’t forget to like, subscribe, and drop your market take in the comments! 👇
🔔 Stay informed, stay sharp.
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