Ep. 044 MKM's Bill Kirk on cannabis and seltzer slowdown

--- Panel ---
Harry is joined by MKM's Bill Kirk, editors Jenn Litz-Kirk, and Jordan Driggers. 

---Time-Stamped Contents ---
00:00 Intro - engaging and hilarious banter.
02:00 Introducing Bill Kirk of MKM Partners, Jenn's husband - amiable, athletic, smart.
02:40 Do bill and jenn talk beer/bevs on date nights?
04:50 Bill a hard seltzer bear. getting tough out there in seltzerland.
05:20 Bill: if you still have lotsa seltzer cases today after labor day, you're stuck.
06:10 price war coming within seltzers? or industry past that?
06:30 Bill: all eyes on white claw on that point, indie producer, no on-premise.
09:20 harry attempts to ask a question about cannabis, fails. Jenn picks it up.
09:50 bill: problems in cannabis are mostly Canadian problems. 
10:30 Rather, U.S. regional-legal cannabis companies killing it.
11:00 bill: marquee names are still Canadian, but the real profit action is and will be in the US.
11:25 jenn asks about bev-alc suppliers getting into the canna-biz, synergies there? light weight not conducive to heavy bev-alc stops. 
12:45 jenn asks about Canadian canna-brands coming down to U.S. 
13:15 bill: fed legalization may take many forms, and could prohibit canadian et al imports of thc. 
13:35 canopy to constellation  to acreage combo deal. 
14:00 jordan: what happens to all that canadian weed equipment? bill: It comes down here for pennies on dollar.
15:00 Oh canada's export options.
15:30 harry points out that US has nearly unlimited rich land with right climate to grow. 
16:00 California is ripe for weed nirvana.
17:45 bill has big plans to build a frisbee golf course on harry's property. harry says better than goats.
18:35 harry is in, and he thinks he'd be a good frolfer. 
19:40 jenn asks about best canna company prospects.
21:15 east coast headwind: cheap black market, ease of delivery.
21:55 bill: fed legalization not going to happen for a while.
22:40 fed cannabis lobbying bodies are fragmented, local guys want protection, big firms want national market. 
23:50 harry tries to make a comparison to 1933 repeal. 
24:00 harry goes on commerce clause rant, lawsuits coming.
24:30 most thc cos in U.S. don't want fed legalization at this point.
25:30 could be six-ish years, between mid-terms and other factors.
26:25 states have a history of standing up to feds even in alcohol. 
28:15 calling out seltzer softness
29:05 bill's top picks in beer: the folks who don't sell much seltzer: stz and tap. 
29:35 bill believes seltzer remains stuck at 8 to 11 share of beer for a long time (like craft beer).
30:00 now a different type of investor in beer stonks:  growth versus value. 
32:00 bet against boston beer?
33:15 SAM stock very responsive to early sales gains.
33:50 harry's stock tip of the year: wait for a bottle recall and jump in. (disclaimer: he is not a licensed financial advisor so don't take his advice).
35:40 jenn: how much does supply deter investors?
36:00 bill: lost sales mean more marketing $$ later to convince folks to come back. 
36:20 white claw down more than a-b and mc. no on-premise to offset.
36:50 jordan: who is benefiting from slowdown in seltzer?  
37:30 constellation benefits: brands are outdoor fun beachy like seltzers. 
38:00 bill likes cos that aren't overly exposed to seltzers:  stz and tap.
38:40 molson coors for first time "trying" to innovate. they are actually now trying. "trend chasing and trend finding."
41:00 smash that like button, give a five star rating, and give a positive review, or go home and do nothing.
42:40 bill has a free seat at the Beer Summit and Wine & Spirits Summit, January 30 at Hotel Del Coronado. details at beernet.com
43:10 jenn makes unreasonable demands of bill