Biden vs Trump Rematch Likely in '24 - Harvard Harris Poll

Harris Poll Chairman Mark Penn and Bob Cusack, Editor in Chief of The Hill explore the findings of the March Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll, conducted March 22-23 among 2,905 registered voters. ​

KEY TAKEAWAYS:

Joe Biden and Donald Trump are solidifying support among their bases as both stretched their lead by 4-5 points in their respective primaries among party voters. While Americans were very concerned about inflation, 71% think the banking crisis will impact them not at all or only a little bit. Voters are united in seeing China as an enemy (75% think so), but they are split on banning TikTok in the U.S. completely versus allowing it to operate with certain conditions.

VOTERS APPROVE OF GOVERNMENT’S BANK INTERVENTIONS BUT AREN'T PERSONALLY CONCERNED ABOUT BANKING CRISIS

• 67% of voters agree with the Biden administration’s decision to step in and guarantee all customer deposits from Silicon Valley Bank and other failed banks.
• 77% of voters think the government should fully insure deposits at all US banks, not only systematically important firms.
• Americans aren’t worried about the banking crisis reaching them: 71% think the bank failures will impact them not at all or only a little bit. 67% think the deposits in their own banks are safe.
• Americans care more about inflation than the banking crisis: 54% of voters believe the Federal Reserve should prioritize fighting inflation even if it means allowing banks to fail and could lead to a financial crisis in the short term.

AMERICANS AGREE TRUMP INDICTMENT LOOKS POLITICAL BUT SUPPORT OR OPPOSE IT ALONG PARTY LINES

• Voters are split evenly along party lines on whether they think the Manhattan DA should indict Trump.
• 59% think the indictment is politically motivated, and 67% think the Trump payment in question was a personal, not a campaign, payment.
• 61% of voters, including half of Republicans, agree that Trump’s calls for protests in case he is arrested were irresponsible.

AMERICANS UNITED IN CONCERN ABOUT CHINA BUT SPLIT ON TIKTOK BAN

• 75% of voters see China as an enemy of the US, and 80% think it seeks to replace the US as the key player in global affairs.
• 55% of voters think Biden’s foreign policy is too weak on China.
• Voters support banning TikTok on government devices (75%) but are split on how to handle TikTok for the public: 45% support a full ban in the US, while 46% support allowing the app with conditions such as forcing it to undergo regular security reviews or forcing its Chinese owners to sell their stakes.

TRUMP AND BIDEN SOLIDIFY THEIR SUPPORT AHEAD OF PRIMARY SEASON BUT TRUMP HAS A CLEAR CHALLENGER

• Biden rose 5 points to 41% support in a hypothetical Democratic primary, while Trump rose 4 points to 50% support in a hypothetical Republican primary.
• A Biden-Trump rematch now looks probable: 57% of Republican and Independent voters think Trump will win the Republican primary, while 60% of Democratic and Independent voters think Biden will win the Democratic primary.
• Trump has a clear challenger while Biden does not: Ron DeSantis trails Trump in a head-to-head primary matchup by 12 points.

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