October 2024 Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll Debrief

The poll was conducted October 11-13, 2024, among 3,145 registered voters by HarrisX and The Harris Poll. As part of the sample, 2,596 likely voters and 898 battleground state voters were also interviewed.

The new poll found that the presidential horserace remains close at 49-48, with Harris leading and up 1 point from September. Trump, however, leads in battleground states among registered, likely, and early voters. The poll also covers public opinion on policy issues and foreign affairs.

Other key findings include:

HORSERACE HAS HARRIS +1 BUT TRUMP LEADING IN BATTLEGROUND STATES  

81% of registered voters say they will definitely vote in the election (Democrat: 85%; Republican: 84%; Independent: 72%).

Harris holds a 1.7-point lead among likely voters, but in battleground states, Trump has a 2-point lead among both likely and registered voters.

There is a 10-point gender gap with female voters favoring Harris. The gap for Latino voters has widened from 7 points in September to 17 points (Harris: 54%; Trump: 37%; Don’t Know/Unsure: 9%).

50% of voters say they will vote on Election Day, 45% say they will vote early, and 5% do not plan to vote. Mail-in voting behavior is nearly even across party ID (Democrat: 49%; Republican: 42%; Independent: 44%), markedly different from that in November 2020 (Democrat: 54%; Republican: 35%; Independent: 45%).

Among those voting early, 51% voted for Harris and 43% voted for Trump (in battleground states, Trump: 48%; Harris: 47%).  

14% of voters say they are still weighing their choices, including 25% of Independents.

Democrats and Republicans remain neck-in-neck in the congressional election (Democrat: 51%; Republican: 49%).

CANDIDATE STRENGTHS ON THE ISSUES CONTINUE TO VARY WIDELY

Trump’s perceived policy stances align more with those of the general public on issues like tougher law enforcement and opposition to open borders, the switch to electric vehicles, free healthcare for illegal immigrants, and men who have transitioned to women competing in women’s sports.

63% of voters are against a national ban on abortion. Most believe Harris is against such a ban (73%, +1 from September) and Trump is for it (54%, -1).  

Though many voters say Harris is to the left (53%) and Trump is to the right (50%) of them politically, 59% say they would rather vote for someone to the right of them.

Voters believe Trump would do a better job on specific foreign policy issues like the Ukraine/Russia war (+9), standing up to China (+13), and the Israel/Hamas war (+10) over Harris, and 70% believe he has experience in foreign affairs. But 51% of voters believe Harris is better equipped to be commander-in-chief over Trump.  

CURRENT EVENTS HAVE MINOR EFFECTS ON CANDIDATE PERCEPTIONS  

85% of voters say CBS should release the full transcript of Harris’ 60 Minutes interview. More broadly, 51% of voters say recent Harris interviews have helped her, and 49% say they have hurt her (an 8-point gap among Independents, with more thinking they hurt her).  

Harris holds leads over Trump on 10 out of 15 presidential characteristics including right temperament (+15), relates to the working class (+12), and honest (+10), while Trump is seen as more experienced (+10) and a fighter (+6).

58% of voters say they were satisfied with FEMA’s response to recent hurricanes, and 67% of voters believe FEMA money should not have gone to housing illegal immigrants.

38% of voters say JD Vance won the vice-presidential debate, while 35% of voters say Tim Walz won.  

67% of voters believe billionaires mostly support Trump, while 33% of voters believe they support Harris.  

APPROVAL RATINGS AND MOOD OF COUNTRY REMAIN UNCHANGED, WITH ECONOMY TOP-OF-MIND

Biden’s approval rating sits at 42%, unchanged from the last three months, while 51% of