Stephen E. Hanson: Can Mafia-like States Spread to the West?

In the upcoming U.S. presidential election, democracy, many say, is on the ballot. But is democracy versus autocracy the best description of the stakes?

Not according to Stephen E. Hanson, co-author with Jeffrey Kopstein of the new book The Assault on the State. The democracy/autocracy distinction is about how people come to power. It doesn't address how leaders rule their staffs and administrations once they are in power.

In the West, we've long managed states based on professional expertise and the rule of law. It's so common that we take it for granted. Yet, in recent years a different form of rule has taken root, first in Russia, then in Eastern Europe, and now in England, the U.S., and other parts of the West. Here the method of rule resembles the mafia. It's based on loyalty to a single leader, typically a man, and characterized by attacks on professional experts and power centralized in a ruling household.

For many years, Hanson, an expert on Russia and Eastern Europe, didn't think that strong mafia-like states were possible in the 21st century. And he was far from alone in this. Then, when Putin defied the odds by building one in Russia, Hanson didn't think this model of rule would spread elsewhere. And yet it has.

In this episode of How My View Grew, we explore why it made sense to bet against the rise of mafia-like states and why such bets turned out to be misguided.

**Key takeaways**

• 5:30 Steve's prediction that Russia wouldn't build a state after communism
• 8:30 How Putin built a state with loyalists
• 14:00 Why nobody thought Russia's mafia-like rule would spread
• 17:00 An epiphany during the pandemic sparks an "aha"
• 20:00 Three warning signs
• 24:00 Democracies can be run like the mafia. Autocracies can be run by experts based on the rule of law
• 28:00 The "unholy alliance" leading the assaults on the expert-run state
• 33:00 How an assault on the state in Israel contributed to the country's lack of preparedness for Hamas's massacres on October 7, 2023
• 39:30 We only notice government when it fails
• 41:00 Amiel's reflections

**Resources**

• The Assault on the State by Stephen E. Hanson and Jeffrey S. Kopstein

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