Unknowable AI: Ethics of Autonomous Weapons | Dr. Mark Bailey, National Intelligence University

Can we trust AI to make life-or-death decisions? What does the unpredictability of artificial intelligence mean for humanity’s future—from autonomous weapons to the Fermi Paradox?

Dr. Mark Bailey, a professor at the National Intelligence University and author of Unknowable Minds: Philosophical Insights on AI and Autonomous Weapons, joins host John Murphy on this episode of Ignition Sequence to explore the ethical and existential frontiers of AI. In this gripping conversation, Bailey unpacks his journey from Army biodefense to AI safety research, the limits of predicting AI behavior, and the short-term risks that could reshape warfare, security, and even our survival as a species.

We dive into the complexities of AI in military systems, the tension between global competition and ethical restraint, and why “epistemic humility” might be our best defense against unintended consequences. Could AI become a “Great Filter” wiping out intelligent life—or a tool to unlock humanity’s potential? Bailey also previews MindFest, March 12-13, 2025 at Florida Atlantic University, where he’ll join philosophers and scientists to tackle these big questions.

Blending military insight, philosophy, and cutting-edge science, Bailey challenges us to rethink AI’s role in our world—and beyond.

What You’ll Learn

1. AI’s Unpredictable NatureWhy AI defies traditional tech reliability, from billions of parameters to alien decision-making

2. Ethics of Autonomous WeaponsThe moral stakes of AI choosing who lives or dies in war

3. Short-Term RisksHow cascading AI decisions could disrupt battlefields, power grids, and more

4. Global Competition vs. SafetyBalancing ethical AI limits with the drive to stay ahead of adversaries

5. The Fermi Paradox & AICould artificial intelligence explain why we haven’t found alien life—or be our own downfall?

Timestamps

00:01:16 - Introduction: Dr. Mark Bailey on his role at National Intelligence University

00:04:05 - Teaching AI ethics and safety at the tip of the spear

00:07:01 - Why AI’s unpredictability challenges military reliability

00:09:10 - Autonomous weapons: Ethical dilemmas and epistemic humility

00:12:28 - The distributed AI problem: Humans out of the loop

00:15:48 - AI as a Great Filter: A Fermi Paradox twist

00:20:15 - Balancing global AI competition with ethical boundaries

00:23:27 - Near-term threats: Drones, malware, and AI misuse

00:25:30 - AI’s promise: Data processing, drug discovery—if used reflectively

00:30:37 - MindFest 2025: Probing AI safety and consciousness

00:34:29 - Closing: Reflecting on AI’s risks and rewards

🔗 Helpful Links:

🔹 Unknowable Minds by Mark Bailey: https://www.unknowableminds.com/

🔹 Learn more about Dr. Mark Bailey: https://www.drmmbailey.com/

🔹 MindFest 2025 at FAU Center for the Future Mind: https://www.fau.edu/future-mind/mindfest/

🔹 National Intelligence University: https://ni-u.edu

🔹 Future of Life Institute – Slaughterbots: https://futureoflife.org/project/lethal-autonomous-weapons-systems/

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