November 6, 2024 • 11 mins
In a stunning political comeback, former president Donald Trump routed vice president Kamala Harris in Tuesday's presidential election to reclaim the White House. What does his victory signal for the future of U.S. democracy? And how will a second Trump administration reshape U.S. foreign policy on Ukraine and Taiwan? In this episode, Jacob Heilbrunn speaks with Harry J. Kazianis, executive editor of The National Interest. Kazianis previously served as part of the foreign policy team for Senator Ted Cruz's 2016 presidential campaign and worked for the conservative Heritage Foundation.
Music by Aleksey Chistilin from Pixabay
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:00):
Hi, I'm Jacob Heilbrunn, the editor of The National Interest, and my guest today on our podcast
(00:29):
is none other than the esteemed executive editor of the magazine, Harry J. Kazianis.
Harry, since you're living in Florida, I'd like to ask you, how is the mood with Donald
Trump's smashing victory over Kamala Harris?
Yes, good to be with you, Jacob.
Well, last couple days, every time I drive by my neighbors and look around, all I see
(00:53):
is Fox News on everybody's TV watching the victory and watching it for the last couple
days.
The mood is pretty good.
Obviously, Trump won Florida by a massive margin down here.
It's very much a conservative country since so many people like myself and others moved
down here.
But I don't think it's any surprise that Trump won.
(01:14):
And like they say, we'll have to see how it all goes.
So Harry, it's interesting that some of the voters who came out for Trump said that they
were supporting him precisely because they feared for American democracy.
Yet, Kamala Harris denounced Trump as a potent threat to the American Republic.
(01:37):
Why do you think they sided with Trump on this issue?
Yeah, that's easy.
One word, inflation.
Now, to be fair, the economists will tell you that inflationary dangers are over.
Inflation is heading back towards the Fed goal of 2% increases every year.
But I think we have to understand people are upset about what's happened in the recent
(02:01):
past.
When you have inflation at 9% going back in 2021, 7% or 8% in 2022, and then prices going
up and all of these different things, eggs, chicken, meat, gasoline was very high for
a long time.
If people can't pay their bills, if people can't live their lives, if people can't go
(02:23):
on vacation, if they can't pay their mortgage, I think they start to look beyond the mean
tweets or some of the stuff that Donald Trump does that people don't like.
To be clear, there's a lot of it.
A lot of it is what we would not comport to be presidential.
But we live in a different era of American politics and we have a president-elect who
(02:49):
learned his political calculus from being a quasi-actor on WWE wrestling.
You look at his stick out on the campaign trail, very much comes from WWE wrestling.
A lot has been written on that.
I think Americans decided that, look, I might not love Donald Trump, I might not love the
things he says, I might not like some of the crazy things he puts up on social media, but
(03:13):
at the end of the day, I think they voted with their pocketbooks and said to themselves,
I don't want to give Kamala Harris another shot when she's talking about things loosely
like price controls, spending a whole bunch of more money that could lead to inflation.
I think people went with what they knew.
(03:34):
Even for myself, I go back a lot to how were things in 2019?
My marker for things in life is what was it like in 2019?
I think a lot of people do that and who was in our life at that time, for better or worse,
it was Donald J. Trump.
Speaking of inflation, do you think that Trump will proceed with his tariffs, including a
(03:55):
60% tariff on China, which would markedly raise prices inside the United States?
No.
Look, anytime I talk with any friends, colleagues, DC media, whatever, I always say this, don't
go by what Donald Trump says because Donald Trump is in a constant negotiation with the
(04:16):
American people, diplomats, whoever he thinks he's dealing with at the time.
Anything he puts out is for negotiating leverage and is always tactical for a longer strategic
goal to get what he thinks he wants.
Think about his modus operandi and everything is always maximum pressure.
(04:37):
We applied that term back when his administration, we came to Iran, North Korea, Russia, so many
other foreign policy things, but he's always applying pressure to try to get what he thinks
is the best deal in his head.
He doesn't understand, Jacob, all the economic models or means in economics or realist foreign
policy or neoconservatism.
(04:59):
All that just goes over his head.
All he knows is he's in a constant negotiation with people to get the maximum benefit he
thinks for the American people.
Talking about tariffs, will he selectively use tariffs in different situations?
Yes, I think he will.
I think one great example where I think there needs to be tariffs is there's all these fears
(05:19):
that China is going to start building up electric vehicle plants in Mexico.
There's been a lot written on this and that they could potentially, and I use that word
loosely, potentially flood the US market and damage companies like General Motors, Tesla,
any others.
I think in situations like that, I think tariffs are appropriate, but again, we'll have to
(05:40):
see what happens.
Again, everything that Donald Trump says, you have to look at the policies.
I think we need to just stop and just take a collective breath and remember what he says
and what he does are often two very different things.
What about the vows for retribution and targeting the internal enemy in the United States?
Jacob, you can be of one of two minds, you can look at some of those comments that he's
(06:06):
made and interpret them lots of different ways.
I'm not going to go down that road.
I think if you look at the beginning of this campaign when he just first got the nomination,
the thing that he said consistently over and over, and I've heard this directly from senior
people literally who sit with Donald Trump on a day to day basis and said, he's not going
to be somebody who's going to try to get quote unquote revenge.
(06:29):
I don't look for him to try to reprocess Hunter Biden or try to lock up Joe Biden or any of
these silly things that were done to him to be fair.
So we've got to factor that in.
But I think for him, his revenge, like you said many times is success.
I think for him, revenge is remaking the Republican Party in his own image set.
(06:51):
I think revenge for him is seeing JD Vance eventually become president or maybe a Ron
DeSantis or a disciple in his wheelhouse of conservative thought to see a successful U.S.
economy, maybe to bring down the debt, maybe to get a deal with North Korea, maybe to ensure
that Iran doesn't get nuclear weapons.
(07:12):
Bottom line for him, I think he understands and again, I've heard this from people that
are going to serve with Trump that for him, success is going to be the best revenge.
And I.
So Harry, what is his number one foreign policy priority?
Using the war in Ukraine.
Simple, total to simple.
I think for him, he understands.
And again, the people I know that are around him who are advising him on this issue are
(07:35):
all of the same mindset.
This is a stalemate.
This is not a war, unfortunately, that Ukraine can, quote unquote, win.
I'm sorry to all my friends out there who have deep connections in Ukraine, but Kiev
is not going to storm Crimea and take it back.
They're not going to be able to push those Russian forces entirely out of Ukraine.
(07:55):
I wish there was a pathway, Jacob, to do it because I'd be all for it.
But looking at the fundamentals of how national military power are constructed, Ukraine doesn't
have the soldiers to do that.
And vice versa.
Russia does not have a way to get a decisive win to march on Kiev or something like that.
So a compromise has to be found.
And I think Donald Trump can find it.
(08:16):
One thing that's been floated out there all over the place is a Korea style compromise
where there's some sort of demilitarized zone, where the lines are essentially frozen.
There's an armistice that stops the conflict.
And sadly, it ends up being a frozen conflict.
I don't think Kiev is ever going to agree to allow parcels of their territory to be
given to Russia formally.
(08:37):
And at the same time, I don't think the Russians are going to want to give up anything in Kursk.
So I think we're looking at sort of a giant sort of Korean style ending to the war.
And I think you have a situation where in the long run, Putin has lost this war.
I mean, stalemate on the battlefront.
But let's face it, a trillion dollars or more is going to flow into Ukraine and rebuild
that country into something more akin to a European style nation.
(09:00):
They are going to join the EU.
They're not going to join NATO.
But I guarantee you, American arms will rebuild their military to be a powerhouse.
And that will deter Russia from ever invading again.
And now Russia is set to be essentially China's, you know, almost like taken over by China
in a lot of respects, because they have nobody else to go to at this point.
(09:23):
Final question.
Is Trump going to stand by Taiwan or will he sell it out?
He'll stand by it.
But I think you I think we have to determine what that means.
Does that mean arming them to the teeth and turning them into what a lot of foreign policy
experts call as a porcupine, something that's so tough that if China were to reach out and
try to swallow it, if you will, they would get hurt?
Yes, I think the Trump administration will do that.
(09:45):
I think they will push Taiwan to buy every sort of piece of military equipment that they
can.
So if China did ever launch an invasion, it would really hurt them.
Does that mean a blank check, Jacob?
No.
Does that mean we're going to risk Los Angeles and Chicago and some sort of nuclear showdown
with China over over Taiwan?
I don't know.
That's sort of situational.
(10:05):
But I do think the Trump administration again, I know very, very, very deeply the people
who are advising Trump.
It's to follow the lesson of Ukraine.
You prearm that society for combat before the combat actually happens.
You deter before the fight comes.
Peace through strength, as everybody likes to talk about these days.
(10:26):
And I think that's what will rule the day.
Harry, it was great to talk and I'm looking forward to our next podcast.
Thanks, Jacob.
Hi, I'm Jacob Heilbrunn, the editor of The National Interest, and my guest today on our podcast
(00:29):
is none other than the esteemed executive editor of the magazine, Harry J. Kazianis.
Harry, since you're living in Florida, I'd like to ask you, how is the mood with Donald
Trump's smashing victory over Kamala Harris?
Yes, good to be with you, Jacob.
Well, last couple days, every time I drive by my neighbors and look around, all I see
(00:53):
is Fox News on everybody's TV watching the victory and watching it for the last couple
days.
The mood is pretty good.
Obviously, Trump won Florida by a massive margin down here.
It's very much a conservative country since so many people like myself and others moved
down here.
But I don't think it's any surprise that Trump won.
(01:14):
And like they say, we'll have to see how it all goes.
So Harry, it's interesting that some of the voters who came out for Trump said that they
were supporting him precisely because they feared for American democracy.
Yet, Kamala Harris denounced Trump as a potent threat to the American Republic.
(01:37):
Why do you think they sided with Trump on this issue?
Yeah, that's easy.
One word, inflation.
Now, to be fair, the economists will tell you that inflationary dangers are over.
Inflation is heading back towards the Fed goal of 2% increases every year.
But I think we have to understand people are upset about what's happened in the recent
(02:01):
past.
When you have inflation at 9% going back in 2021, 7% or 8% in 2022, and then prices going
up and all of these different things, eggs, chicken, meat, gasoline was very high for
a long time.
If people can't pay their bills, if people can't live their lives, if people can't go
(02:23):
on vacation, if they can't pay their mortgage, I think they start to look beyond the mean
tweets or some of the stuff that Donald Trump does that people don't like.
To be clear, there's a lot of it.
A lot of it is what we would not comport to be presidential.
But we live in a different era of American politics and we have a president-elect who
(02:49):
learned his political calculus from being a quasi-actor on WWE wrestling.
You look at his stick out on the campaign trail, very much comes from WWE wrestling.
A lot has been written on that.
I think Americans decided that, look, I might not love Donald Trump, I might not love the
things he says, I might not like some of the crazy things he puts up on social media, but
(03:13):
at the end of the day, I think they voted with their pocketbooks and said to themselves,
I don't want to give Kamala Harris another shot when she's talking about things loosely
like price controls, spending a whole bunch of more money that could lead to inflation.
I think people went with what they knew.
(03:34):
Even for myself, I go back a lot to how were things in 2019?
My marker for things in life is what was it like in 2019?
I think a lot of people do that and who was in our life at that time, for better or worse,
it was Donald J. Trump.
Speaking of inflation, do you think that Trump will proceed with his tariffs, including a
(03:55):
60% tariff on China, which would markedly raise prices inside the United States?
No.
Look, anytime I talk with any friends, colleagues, DC media, whatever, I always say this, don't
go by what Donald Trump says because Donald Trump is in a constant negotiation with the
(04:16):
American people, diplomats, whoever he thinks he's dealing with at the time.
Anything he puts out is for negotiating leverage and is always tactical for a longer strategic
goal to get what he thinks he wants.
Think about his modus operandi and everything is always maximum pressure.
(04:37):
We applied that term back when his administration, we came to Iran, North Korea, Russia, so many
other foreign policy things, but he's always applying pressure to try to get what he thinks
is the best deal in his head.
He doesn't understand, Jacob, all the economic models or means in economics or realist foreign
policy or neoconservatism.
(04:59):
All that just goes over his head.
All he knows is he's in a constant negotiation with people to get the maximum benefit he
thinks for the American people.
Talking about tariffs, will he selectively use tariffs in different situations?
Yes, I think he will.
I think one great example where I think there needs to be tariffs is there's all these fears
(05:19):
that China is going to start building up electric vehicle plants in Mexico.
There's been a lot written on this and that they could potentially, and I use that word
loosely, potentially flood the US market and damage companies like General Motors, Tesla,
any others.
I think in situations like that, I think tariffs are appropriate, but again, we'll have to
(05:40):
see what happens.
Again, everything that Donald Trump says, you have to look at the policies.
I think we need to just stop and just take a collective breath and remember what he says
and what he does are often two very different things.
What about the vows for retribution and targeting the internal enemy in the United States?
Jacob, you can be of one of two minds, you can look at some of those comments that he's
(06:06):
made and interpret them lots of different ways.
I'm not going to go down that road.
I think if you look at the beginning of this campaign when he just first got the nomination,
the thing that he said consistently over and over, and I've heard this directly from senior
people literally who sit with Donald Trump on a day to day basis and said, he's not going
to be somebody who's going to try to get quote unquote revenge.
(06:29):
I don't look for him to try to reprocess Hunter Biden or try to lock up Joe Biden or any of
these silly things that were done to him to be fair.
So we've got to factor that in.
But I think for him, his revenge, like you said many times is success.
I think for him, revenge is remaking the Republican Party in his own image set.
(06:51):
I think revenge for him is seeing JD Vance eventually become president or maybe a Ron
DeSantis or a disciple in his wheelhouse of conservative thought to see a successful U.S.
economy, maybe to bring down the debt, maybe to get a deal with North Korea, maybe to ensure
that Iran doesn't get nuclear weapons.
(07:12):
Bottom line for him, I think he understands and again, I've heard this from people that
are going to serve with Trump that for him, success is going to be the best revenge.
And I.
So Harry, what is his number one foreign policy priority?
Using the war in Ukraine.
Simple, total to simple.
I think for him, he understands.
And again, the people I know that are around him who are advising him on this issue are
(07:35):
all of the same mindset.
This is a stalemate.
This is not a war, unfortunately, that Ukraine can, quote unquote, win.
I'm sorry to all my friends out there who have deep connections in Ukraine, but Kiev
is not going to storm Crimea and take it back.
They're not going to be able to push those Russian forces entirely out of Ukraine.
(07:55):
I wish there was a pathway, Jacob, to do it because I'd be all for it.
But looking at the fundamentals of how national military power are constructed, Ukraine doesn't
have the soldiers to do that.
And vice versa.
Russia does not have a way to get a decisive win to march on Kiev or something like that.
So a compromise has to be found.
And I think Donald Trump can find it.
(08:16):
One thing that's been floated out there all over the place is a Korea style compromise
where there's some sort of demilitarized zone, where the lines are essentially frozen.
There's an armistice that stops the conflict.
And sadly, it ends up being a frozen conflict.
I don't think Kiev is ever going to agree to allow parcels of their territory to be
given to Russia formally.
(08:37):
And at the same time, I don't think the Russians are going to want to give up anything in Kursk.
So I think we're looking at sort of a giant sort of Korean style ending to the war.
And I think you have a situation where in the long run, Putin has lost this war.
I mean, stalemate on the battlefront.
But let's face it, a trillion dollars or more is going to flow into Ukraine and rebuild
that country into something more akin to a European style nation.
(09:00):
They are going to join the EU.
They're not going to join NATO.
But I guarantee you, American arms will rebuild their military to be a powerhouse.
And that will deter Russia from ever invading again.
And now Russia is set to be essentially China's, you know, almost like taken over by China
in a lot of respects, because they have nobody else to go to at this point.
(09:23):
Final question.
Is Trump going to stand by Taiwan or will he sell it out?
He'll stand by it.
But I think you I think we have to determine what that means.
Does that mean arming them to the teeth and turning them into what a lot of foreign policy
experts call as a porcupine, something that's so tough that if China were to reach out and
try to swallow it, if you will, they would get hurt?
Yes, I think the Trump administration will do that.
(09:45):
I think they will push Taiwan to buy every sort of piece of military equipment that they
can.
So if China did ever launch an invasion, it would really hurt them.
Does that mean a blank check, Jacob?
No.
Does that mean we're going to risk Los Angeles and Chicago and some sort of nuclear showdown
with China over over Taiwan?
I don't know.
That's sort of situational.
(10:05):
But I do think the Trump administration again, I know very, very, very deeply the people
who are advising Trump.
It's to follow the lesson of Ukraine.
You prearm that society for combat before the combat actually happens.
You deter before the fight comes.
Peace through strength, as everybody likes to talk about these days.
(10:26):
And I think that's what will rule the day.
Harry, it was great to talk and I'm looking forward to our next podcast.
Thanks, Jacob.
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