April 1, 2024 • 10 mins
Media coverage has depicted Turkey’s nationwide local elections on Sunday as a major blow for President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his ruling Justice and Development Party. How significant is this political defeat, and what does it augur both for Turkish and Middle East politics? In this episode, Jacob Heilbrunn speaks with Greg Priddy, a Senior Fellow for the Middle East at the Center for the National Interest. Priddy consults for corporate and financial clients on political risk in the region and previously served as Director for Global Oil at Eurasia Group.
Music by Aleksey Chistilin from Pixabay
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:00):
Hi, I'm Jacob Heilbrunn, the editor of The National Interest, and it is my pleasure today to talk
(00:29):
with Greg Priddy, a senior fellow for the Middle East at the Center for the National
Interest.
Greg is an expert on the Middle East, so I thought it would be an opportune moment to
talk to him about what is being widely depicted in the media as a major election blow to Turkey's
President Recep Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party.
(00:53):
Turkey held nationwide elections on Sunday for city mayors, district mayors, and a variety
of other local officials who are going to serve over the next five years.
Greg, how significant do you rate this defeat for Erdogan?
It is definitely an indicator of mass frustration with what's going on with the economy there.
(01:16):
This election was less about the secular versus religious identity issues and much more about
public frustration with inflation, first and foremost, and economic mismanagement.
They've kind of had a roller coaster ride on loose monetary policy stimulating the economy
and now jacking up to nearly 50% interest rates.
(01:38):
I think it is a big blow to the AK Party, but I don't think this is a game changer,
and I don't think this necessarily means that Erdogan is in a worse condition heading toward
the 2028 presidential election.
This is still what political scientists would call a competitive authoritarian system, which
has meaningful elections, but within boundaries.
(02:02):
The AK Party still has all of the levers of power there in ways that guarantee that they're
not going to have a free and fair election the way we would think of that.
What levers of power specifically are you referencing?
Well, the fact that you don't have truly free media anymore.
You still have journalists in jail.
(02:23):
You still have politicians who are in jail on kind of questionable charges.
You also still have, and this is probably the biggest one, the last presidential election
there, the current mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Ememoglu, was banned from the ballot.
There are laws in place that allow them to ban candidates pretty arbitrarily, but he's
(02:43):
a very popular figure in Ememoglu, and a lot of the coverage in the media of this election
is saying, well, he was out there on the balcony talking to the crowds last night.
Maybe he's going to be the front runner for the next election, but there are still the
tools in place that would allow them to take him off the ballot.
And there also are still, the AK Party still has a commanding lead in the legislature,
(03:09):
and they are looking at making some additional constitutional changes that would push that
even further along.
Would you say that this was kind of what we've been witnessing throughout the Western democracies,
a protest vote that Erdogan, in fact, has now become the establishment?
Yeah, I think Erdogan has become the establishment and is getting the, you know, he can't evade
(03:31):
blame for, you know, again, it looks to me like largely an election that was more about
policy issues and less about religious versus secular identity.
It is important to point out, though, that there still was a very regional cast to it.
You obviously have the Kurdish party in their region, but when you look at the rest of Turkey,
(03:52):
it was the CHP dominating a fringe around the coastal areas in the West and South, and
then the AK Party dominating the heartland.
But it was also important when you look at that regional map to see, you know, where
the opposition did better was secondary cities.
So there were some cities where the urban versus rural divide was surmounted and they
(04:15):
were able to, you know, or where the urban versus rural divide rather propelled people
toward this CHP in cities that they hadn't been able to win last time.
So they expanded their map of that.
It's clear that the Turkish economy is in pretty dire shape with the central bank has
raised interest rates to 45 percent in January.
(04:35):
Inflation went up 67 percent in February, according to official figures.
Do you think that Erdogan is going to have to focus more on domestic policy rather than
foreign policy?
I'm not sure.
I'm not sure that he can't walk into gum, but, you know, he definitely has some serious
internal they're going to have to do some painful reforms.
(04:58):
And I think this election is going to allow Erdogan to pivot toward that and to say that,
you know, we have to we have to take some bitter medicine in terms of monetary policy
to get us where we want to be on inflation.
But would this be something that would underpin an exceptionally ambitious regional foreign
policy for him?
No.
But there are things, you know, there are things going on that have been advantageous
(05:22):
for Turkey.
You know, they are making progress.
You know, Iraq has weakened the Iraqi Kurds in a way that is probably advantageous for
him regionally.
And Turkey also has been starting to talk to the US about if the US eventually departs
Syria, is there other ways that we can come to an agreement or at least, you know, a modus
(05:43):
vivendi on that that both Turkey and the US would be, if not happy with, then at least
accepting of.
So there are some there are some things regionally that are going his way.
Where do you see Erdogan going in his stance towards Russia and on Ukraine?
Probably not changing it much.
Do you think he's going to reach out more to the West and the United States with his
(06:06):
economic difficulties?
You know, there actually has been more trade with Russia recently, in part because of Western
sanctions.
So I think that that might actually pull him slightly in the other direction.
But I don't think I don't think it's going to change his overall policy for us.
Do you think his standing has been damaged in the region by this election?
(06:27):
You know, other authoritarian rulers there, I think we're just going to look at this as
he has a problem that he needs to fix with the economy.
Turkey has improved their position.
You know, there's been a reconciliation with Egypt.
They were barely talking to each other five years ago and the Gulf Arabs as well, you
know, as the Qatar versus Saudi and Emirati rift has has been healed somewhat.
(06:52):
Turkey has also been improving their ties there.
And that's also good for Turkish business in that, you know, Turkish contractors build
a lot of things in the Gulf.
And so, you know, that that has probably been a win for him as well.
So I don't I don't think other I don't think authoritarian rulers in the region are going
to see him as damaged goods.
A country that Turkey has had testy relations with is Israel.
(07:14):
Where do you see that heading?
Probably not changing fundamentally.
I mean, the one interesting thing during this election was that the opposition party was
actually highlighting AK Party politicians, you know, businesses connected to the AK Party
and to people in the AK Party trading with Israel.
And so there were a lot of attacks made on them as you're a hypocrite because you say
(07:35):
you're pro-Palestine, but here your brother's company is doing all this business with an
Israeli company.
So, you know, they're actually they're actually people making political attacks in that direction.
But I don't I don't think that really matters all that much.
They're going to continue normal economic relations, but it's going to be a very frosty
relationship.
So if I'm reading you correctly, Greg, you think that there's a lot of hue and cry about
(07:59):
this election, but that it will not fundamentally alter things.
And then Erdogan has another four years before the next election to straighten out matters.
Is that correct?
Yeah, he has he has four years to fix things.
And there's really no question that he's going to be in power for that period.
I think the big question, though, is if the economy continues to be, you know, it is hard
(08:20):
to solve the problems that they have right now.
And if that continues to be a sore point for the public, are they able to tilt things far
enough to paper that over?
But you know, we'll have to see how they how they progress with economic reform and whether
whether they can make enough progress that it I definitely am not saying I'm not making
(08:42):
a call on the election for twenty twenty eight yet.
It's a long way out.
But you know, this isn't something that is going to lead to any sort of immediate change.
So in a way, this this election was a way to let out some steam.
Is that right?
Yeah.
And it definitely gives the opposition.
Yeah.
I think it also is probably going to push the party to work with these mayors a bit
(09:06):
on local issues.
You know, so you've had that you've had that issue with the park getting redeveloped in
Istanbul, those kind of things that were symbolic local issues where the party was pushing their
agenda and they're probably going to be pulled a little bit more toward, you know, making
nice with with those mayors.
Well, Greg, this has been fascinating.
(09:27):
I thank you for joining us on such short notice to discuss the elections in Turkey and look
forward to our next podcast of In the National Interest.
Thank you, Jacob.
Thank you.
Hi, I'm Jacob Heilbrunn, the editor of The National Interest, and it is my pleasure today to talk
(00:29):
with Greg Priddy, a senior fellow for the Middle East at the Center for the National
Interest.
Greg is an expert on the Middle East, so I thought it would be an opportune moment to
talk to him about what is being widely depicted in the media as a major election blow to Turkey's
President Recep Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party.
(00:53):
Turkey held nationwide elections on Sunday for city mayors, district mayors, and a variety
of other local officials who are going to serve over the next five years.
Greg, how significant do you rate this defeat for Erdogan?
It is definitely an indicator of mass frustration with what's going on with the economy there.
(01:16):
This election was less about the secular versus religious identity issues and much more about
public frustration with inflation, first and foremost, and economic mismanagement.
They've kind of had a roller coaster ride on loose monetary policy stimulating the economy
and now jacking up to nearly 50% interest rates.
(01:38):
I think it is a big blow to the AK Party, but I don't think this is a game changer,
and I don't think this necessarily means that Erdogan is in a worse condition heading toward
the 2028 presidential election.
This is still what political scientists would call a competitive authoritarian system, which
has meaningful elections, but within boundaries.
(02:02):
The AK Party still has all of the levers of power there in ways that guarantee that they're
not going to have a free and fair election the way we would think of that.
What levers of power specifically are you referencing?
Well, the fact that you don't have truly free media anymore.
You still have journalists in jail.
(02:23):
You still have politicians who are in jail on kind of questionable charges.
You also still have, and this is probably the biggest one, the last presidential election
there, the current mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Ememoglu, was banned from the ballot.
There are laws in place that allow them to ban candidates pretty arbitrarily, but he's
(02:43):
a very popular figure in Ememoglu, and a lot of the coverage in the media of this election
is saying, well, he was out there on the balcony talking to the crowds last night.
Maybe he's going to be the front runner for the next election, but there are still the
tools in place that would allow them to take him off the ballot.
And there also are still, the AK Party still has a commanding lead in the legislature,
(03:09):
and they are looking at making some additional constitutional changes that would push that
even further along.
Would you say that this was kind of what we've been witnessing throughout the Western democracies,
a protest vote that Erdogan, in fact, has now become the establishment?
Yeah, I think Erdogan has become the establishment and is getting the, you know, he can't evade
(03:31):
blame for, you know, again, it looks to me like largely an election that was more about
policy issues and less about religious versus secular identity.
It is important to point out, though, that there still was a very regional cast to it.
You obviously have the Kurdish party in their region, but when you look at the rest of Turkey,
(03:52):
it was the CHP dominating a fringe around the coastal areas in the West and South, and
then the AK Party dominating the heartland.
But it was also important when you look at that regional map to see, you know, where
the opposition did better was secondary cities.
So there were some cities where the urban versus rural divide was surmounted and they
(04:15):
were able to, you know, or where the urban versus rural divide rather propelled people
toward this CHP in cities that they hadn't been able to win last time.
So they expanded their map of that.
It's clear that the Turkish economy is in pretty dire shape with the central bank has
raised interest rates to 45 percent in January.
(04:35):
Inflation went up 67 percent in February, according to official figures.
Do you think that Erdogan is going to have to focus more on domestic policy rather than
foreign policy?
I'm not sure.
I'm not sure that he can't walk into gum, but, you know, he definitely has some serious
internal they're going to have to do some painful reforms.
(04:58):
And I think this election is going to allow Erdogan to pivot toward that and to say that,
you know, we have to we have to take some bitter medicine in terms of monetary policy
to get us where we want to be on inflation.
But would this be something that would underpin an exceptionally ambitious regional foreign
policy for him?
No.
But there are things, you know, there are things going on that have been advantageous
(05:22):
for Turkey.
You know, they are making progress.
You know, Iraq has weakened the Iraqi Kurds in a way that is probably advantageous for
him regionally.
And Turkey also has been starting to talk to the US about if the US eventually departs
Syria, is there other ways that we can come to an agreement or at least, you know, a modus
(05:43):
vivendi on that that both Turkey and the US would be, if not happy with, then at least
accepting of.
So there are some there are some things regionally that are going his way.
Where do you see Erdogan going in his stance towards Russia and on Ukraine?
Probably not changing it much.
Do you think he's going to reach out more to the West and the United States with his
(06:06):
economic difficulties?
You know, there actually has been more trade with Russia recently, in part because of Western
sanctions.
So I think that that might actually pull him slightly in the other direction.
But I don't think I don't think it's going to change his overall policy for us.
Do you think his standing has been damaged in the region by this election?
(06:27):
You know, other authoritarian rulers there, I think we're just going to look at this as
he has a problem that he needs to fix with the economy.
Turkey has improved their position.
You know, there's been a reconciliation with Egypt.
They were barely talking to each other five years ago and the Gulf Arabs as well, you
know, as the Qatar versus Saudi and Emirati rift has has been healed somewhat.
(06:52):
Turkey has also been improving their ties there.
And that's also good for Turkish business in that, you know, Turkish contractors build
a lot of things in the Gulf.
And so, you know, that that has probably been a win for him as well.
So I don't I don't think other I don't think authoritarian rulers in the region are going
to see him as damaged goods.
A country that Turkey has had testy relations with is Israel.
(07:14):
Where do you see that heading?
Probably not changing fundamentally.
I mean, the one interesting thing during this election was that the opposition party was
actually highlighting AK Party politicians, you know, businesses connected to the AK Party
and to people in the AK Party trading with Israel.
And so there were a lot of attacks made on them as you're a hypocrite because you say
(07:35):
you're pro-Palestine, but here your brother's company is doing all this business with an
Israeli company.
So, you know, they're actually they're actually people making political attacks in that direction.
But I don't I don't think that really matters all that much.
They're going to continue normal economic relations, but it's going to be a very frosty
relationship.
So if I'm reading you correctly, Greg, you think that there's a lot of hue and cry about
(07:59):
this election, but that it will not fundamentally alter things.
And then Erdogan has another four years before the next election to straighten out matters.
Is that correct?
Yeah, he has he has four years to fix things.
And there's really no question that he's going to be in power for that period.
I think the big question, though, is if the economy continues to be, you know, it is hard
(08:20):
to solve the problems that they have right now.
And if that continues to be a sore point for the public, are they able to tilt things far
enough to paper that over?
But you know, we'll have to see how they how they progress with economic reform and whether
whether they can make enough progress that it I definitely am not saying I'm not making
(08:42):
a call on the election for twenty twenty eight yet.
It's a long way out.
But you know, this isn't something that is going to lead to any sort of immediate change.
So in a way, this this election was a way to let out some steam.
Is that right?
Yeah.
And it definitely gives the opposition.
Yeah.
I think it also is probably going to push the party to work with these mayors a bit
(09:06):
on local issues.
You know, so you've had that you've had that issue with the park getting redeveloped in
Istanbul, those kind of things that were symbolic local issues where the party was pushing their
agenda and they're probably going to be pulled a little bit more toward, you know, making
nice with with those mayors.
Well, Greg, this has been fascinating.
(09:27):
I thank you for joining us on such short notice to discuss the elections in Turkey and look
forward to our next podcast of In the National Interest.
Thank you, Jacob.
Thank you.
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