March 8, 2024 • 30 mins
Discover the surprising ways our minds can trick us into overestimating our capabilities, just as we were tricked by the smooth, complex flavors of Four Square Rum Distillery's Master Series Edition Number Three. As we savored the caramel richness and sherry cask finish, our conversation took a turn into the fascinating world of the Dunning-Kruger effect. We delved into the original study by social psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger, discussing how it reveals the chasm between perceived and actual competence, with implications for both our professional and personal lives.
Feel the comfort of knowing it's okay not to know everything as we explore the four stages of competence. Relating these stages to the everyday experience of learning new skills, like driving, we highlighted the value of embracing conscious incompetence. This episode isn't just a rum tasting; it's a journey into understanding the cognitive biases that cloud our judgment and how recognizing our limitations can be the key to innovation and growth.
Wrapping up, we scrutinized the intersection of the Dunning-Kruger effect and artificial intelligence. The overconfidence of AI programmers can lead to biases and security issues, as evidenced by anecdotes of AI's role in unexpected places, like car dealership chatbots. We also touched on the cycle of overconfidence AI might perpetuate and the importance of continuous learning. Whether you're a rum enthusiast, a tech guru, or just intrigued by the quirks of human psychology, this discussion blends insightful commentary with an invitation to reflect on our own expertise—or lack thereof.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hello and welcome back to the Inhibit Everything
podcast.
I'm your host, John Mowed.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
And I'm your other host, Caitlyn Mowed.
Speaker 1 (00:06):
And today we are going to be talking about the
Dunning-Kruger effect.
Now, the most important pieceof any puzzle is self-awareness,
so before that, we're gonnacrack open a rum.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
Mm.
Speaker 1 (00:22):
Yeah, so.
Speaker 2 (00:23):
We're going off the bourbon track today.
Speaker 1 (00:27):
So normally we go whiskey, bourbon, which is kind
of our what you would kind ofcall our safe zone, our happy
place.
But today we've got a foursquare rum distillery master
series edition number three.
It's a 14 year aged ex bourbonbarrel, ex sherry barrel rum
coming in at 120 proof.
(00:49):
What we're gonna do today isgive this a taste.
Now, this is a little bitdifferent than we normally do,
but I imagine you're gonna get alot of different notes too.
But it is a rum, so when yousmell it.
Speaker 2 (00:58):
I mean, it smells like a rum.
Speaker 1 (00:59):
It smells like a rum.
Speaker 2 (01:00):
It looks like a rum.
Probably gonna taste like a rum.
Speaker 1 (01:02):
It almost smells like a 151, honestly it does.
Yeah, it's got that very sharpkind of almost a stringentie
nose on it.
Speaker 2 (01:11):
Yeah, it smells like margaritaville.
Speaker 1 (01:13):
Margaritaville smells like like tourists and and 151.
Speaker 2 (01:17):
Sometime ocean and 151.
Speaker 1 (01:18):
151.
Okay, so immediately I get thatcotton candy effect where it
almost melts across your tongue.
It's got a very multi initial.
It's got caramel Front, Very,very smooth.
It's got some some hug on theback end, some heat there.
I do taste that sherry cask forsure.
Little bit of bourbonny on theback end on that exhale, but
(01:39):
honestly, mostly I'm getting rum.
It is making my mouth water, sothat's.
That's usually a good thingthat.
What are you tasting?
Speaker 2 (01:45):
I just taste caramel and rum.
Speaker 1 (01:48):
So so they would call that a caramel bomb.
So you got just a rum caramel.
This would be an incrediblemixer.
I would I mean.
It's incredible all by itself,it's delicious I could get.
Speaker 2 (01:59):
I can get in trouble on this.
Speaker 1 (02:01):
Yeah, it's definitely very.
Speaker 2 (02:02):
It's on the top shelf .
Speaker 1 (02:04):
Definitely very different.
It's very, very, very smooth.
I will give it 10 points forfor smooth.
Speaker 2 (02:10):
Like a candy.
Speaker 1 (02:11):
So, yeah, I'd recommend this one.
I think we're going to.
I'll be, I'll be sharing thiswith, with lots and lots of
friends, the.
It's the Four Square RumDistillery Master Series Edition
Number Three.
How do you recommend Greatbottle?
So let's move past the, thetasting, let's move into
(02:31):
something we don't know a lotabout, right?
So the Dunning Kruger Effect.
What is the Dunning KrugerEffect?
Speaker 2 (02:38):
I knew you were going to say that.
I think this is something thatwe all have heard.
It's not a new concept or a newstudy.
I'll be one of those thingswhere I know when you first said
we're going to talk aboutDunning Kruger, I was like, ooh,
that's in there, that's in theback of my mind somewhere.
But I have to go find that,that filing cabinet and brush up
on it because it's been a longtime.
(02:59):
But we've all probably brushed,you know, brushed against this
concept at some point in ourlives, whether that's in psych
101 class, because we all werepsych majors at some point in
our lives, or, you know, justtalking within our professional
careers.
But so the Dunning KrugerEffect is a cognitive bias where
individuals with lowerabilities at a task tend to
(03:21):
overestimate their competence,while those at a higher ability
may underestimate theirexpertise on the same task.
So this phenomenon issignificant in the context of
self-awareness because ithighlights the disconnect
between actual skill and anindividual's perception of their
ability.
That's exactly what it is.
(03:41):
I think it's important to gointo the why we have the Dunning
Kruger Effect.
These two psychologists, davidDunning and Justin Kruger they
were social psychologists.
They noticed somethinginteresting.
They had a hypothesis thatthere was a disconnect between
(04:01):
actual skill level and how muchsomeone would rate that skill
level personally,introspectively.
So they decided to find out ifthere was a correlation.
So what they did was they took45 undergraduates, which is
shocking to me, because when youtalk about a study, 45 people
(04:22):
is not a lot.
So I find that reallyinteresting that they didn't
have a bigger pool.
But there were studies that werebased on the Dunning-Kruger
study later that did confirmthat this pet teeth holds water.
So they took 45 undergraduatesand they gave them a 20-question
logic test.
Then they asked them to ratetheir performance.
They asked them to estimate howmany questions they got right
and then to estimate how wellthey did compared to their peers
(04:45):
.
And what's interesting is theeffect doesn't really show up
when they're asked the firstpart.
So when they're asked toestimate how many questions they
got right, it was found thatregardless of actual skill level
, people tend to rate theirknowledge the same.
So those with less skill theyestimated that they scored 20
(05:06):
points on average higher thanthey actually did.
And then those who actually hadmore skill guess that they
scored around 15 points lower.
So both groups thought theyperformed at the same level,
regardless of their skill set.
So basically saying that thepopulation.
We can then assume that thepopulation thinks that they're
about B plus players when itcomes to stuff like this, which
(05:29):
is interesting.
The deviation comes when theywere then asked to compare
themselves against their peers,and that's where it gets really
interesting.
So in this study, the lowestscoring students estimated that
they did better than 62% ofother test takers, while the
higher scoring students thoughtthey scored better than only 68%
(05:51):
.
So the more skill you had, youwere less confident that you
knew more than the guy sittingnext to you or the girl sitting
next to you.
Speaker 1 (05:59):
The Dunning-Kruber effect is used oftentimes to
kind of illustrate that dumbpeople don't know they're dumb.
Whether that's right or wrong,I think when you get somebody
who says, well, dumb people justdon't know they're dumb, I
think what that usually means isthat they themselves are
lacking a little bit ofself-awareness, and I think the
whole goal of the Dunning-Krubereffect is self-awareness.
(06:21):
So by just saying something asblatant as dumb people don't
know they're dumb, everyone hasa specific set of skills, an
area in which they are to somedegree an expert, and so the
Dunning-Kruber effect iseffectively brought into four
categories, where they callunconscious competence, where
you're ignorant and you justdon't know it yet.
Conscious competence, whereyou're aware of what you don't
(06:44):
know but you haven't taken thesteps to learn more.
Conscious competence, which isyou're actively learning and
acquiring knowledge of a subject.
And then unconscious competence, where you've mastered a
subject to an extent that's soextensive that you forget or
take advantage or take forgranted how much you really know
about that topic.
(07:05):
And so you'll often hear a lotof experts in the industry say
I've forgotten more than mostpeople know, and that's not
necessarily true.
They've forgotten.
I'm sure they've forgotten somethings, but they use that as a
way of saying that there's somany things that I almost don't
remember.
In this quest to learn moreabout whatever it is I'm
learning, I think as far asinnovative at the ordinary, we
(07:27):
almost have to live in aconstant state of conscious and
competence.
That self-awareness of thecompany is what allows us to ask
the right questions and seekthe right answers from the
experts, to bring forthsomething where we say you know
what?
We're going to acknowledge thatwe are consciously incompetent
(07:49):
in all these areas.
Now let's go out and findexperts to fill those needs.
And so if your goal is to be aninventor, an innovator,
whatever it may be, I think ahuge portion of what you're
trying to achieve is going to beunderstanding your conscious
and competence.
The best way that I personallycan bring conscious and
(08:10):
competence into an area whereeveryone kind of understands
what I'm talking about, I wouldgo to learning how to drive.
So whether you're a parent,whether you're a student,
everyone in the car is aware ofyour conscious and competence.
And if you're a mother or afather, you've got your
(08:30):
fingernails dug into thedashboard just slamming on your
imaginary brake pedal.
You're trying your hardest toallow your student to learn.
But because of your mindfulness, your unconscious competence,
you say things like you have tocheck your blind spot, which is
kind of inherently on autopilotfor you, but it gives your child
(08:54):
a little bit of anxiety becausethey are aware that they don't
know all the steps yet.
So embracing those new tasks,embracing that unconscious
incompetence, will really giveyou an option where you can
embrace it in your own workplace.
I always reference that we neverleft the playground.
All these leadership models andhow we learn things.
None of that changes from thetime we're young.
(09:15):
As you heard last week JohnJarmillo saying that stuff
doesn't change.
We just change how wearticulate.
We change the words that areassociated with those tasks, and
so if you watch children learnsomething, you can really see
these steps play out.
Speaker 2 (09:33):
Yeah, and I think it's important to understand
that our brains like absolutesand I think that the driving
analogy is great because thiseffect, this unconscious
incompetency, is a mental blindspot.
It's a blind spot in our brainsbiologically and I think a
(09:56):
really good example of that toois the do you remember the blue
and black, gold and white dressargument online?
Yeah, this is a great, greatexample of kind of Dunn and
Krueger.
I mean, it's a perceptiondifference and we're not going
to go into the biology of theeyes and the cones and the rods
and why some people see itdifferently, but those who are
(10:18):
seeing it very much one way.
I personally saw a white andgold dress and I think you saw a
blue and black dress like rightout of the gate.
And when you're looking atsomething and your ring is
telling you that's it's truth,I'm seeing something.
It's truth, it's notquestionable, it's not for
debate.
It's really hard to takesomething that you see as
(10:41):
absolute truth and understandthat the person next to you
thinks that that's crazy becausethey're seeing something
different.
And that is the blind spot thatwe are working with in every
area of our life, because, justbecause you think that what you
have is the absolute truth, oryour brain is telling you like
this is how the world works, orthis is how my trade is set up
(11:02):
and this is the best way to fixa problem or design something.
It doesn't mean it's always thebest and realizing that there
could be a different way or abetter way is hard to do.
And, like you said, ask thosequestions and lean on other
people to see and, kind ofpressure, test your own ideas.
It takes practice because it'snot, it doesn't come natural to
(11:22):
us, like our brains, likeabsolutes.
They grab, they grab hold ofthem and it's really hard for us
to let go of those and it goesagainst our nature.
Speaker 1 (11:31):
And I think that's the most important piece, right
is embracing that frustration.
There was a manager when I wasat Apple that, as we were doing
our training, said the term youdon't know what you don't know,
and it stuck with me for myentire working life.
For me it's as we learn and wegrow and move forward and move
through these moments ofunconscious incompetence.
(11:54):
There are so many ways that youcan navigate through those
waters and bring yourself intoconscious incompetence.
But I feel like what happens inmore times than not, especially
with the younger generation,especially with Gen Zers the
number of times I've seen theseinterviews on TikTok or whatever
it is, where someone's askingGen Zers who's the 17th
(12:17):
president of the United Statesor whatever, gen Zers almost
immediately default to well, I'mstupid, I don't know.
And I find that that answer tobe strange because as a
millennial right, we wouldeither say I don't know or, on
the other side of it, consciousand competence, very confidently
make something up, veryconfidently, say Hoover, right,
(12:39):
and then just pretend thatthat's okay.
And then when someone pointsout that we're wrong, then a
millennial would say oh, oh,you're right, you're right,
right, I gotta mix up, right,like historically.
There's that unconscious andcompetence.
But I find it fascinating thatGen Z and we can talk about a
thousand different reasons towhy, right, you can go all the
way to the we're beingprogrammed by our enemies, by
(13:02):
the Chinese and Chinese cultureis kind of encroaching into our
society, to education haschanged and the system has
changed and things are just verydifferent than they were over
to it's the social media.
Whatever the reason that youbelieve that the younger
generation approaches thatdifferently than a previous
(13:22):
generation, gen Z seems to beweirdly okay with sitting in
conscious and competence andinstead of saying, oh, that's
interesting, I didn't know that,let me look that up they just
default to I don't know, and Ithink some of that is because of
things like the internet andthings like AI that bring us
(13:43):
into this world where we canjust allow the quote unquote
smarter machine tell us theanswer.
And so I think that that part,to me, is the most interesting
and I'd like to hear youropinion on that.
Speaker 2 (13:56):
Yeah, I think it affects everyone and it impacts
everything.
It holds talent back and itkeeps potential from being
realized.
You know, like you said, you'vegot a population.
I hate to generalize and dothat, but we have young kids
tend to say, oh, I don't know,and it's holding back their
potential of being realizedwhere they.
(14:17):
Maybe they have a photographicmemory and they do know the
information, but they're notstepping out because of
unconscious limitations thatthey've put on themselves.
But when it comes to AI, I thinkit's interesting because
artificial intelligence isreally affected by this whole
phenomenon in two different waysor on two different levels.
(14:38):
First, with the programming andcreation of AI modules, right,
you have really overconfidentprogrammers who are putting on
control measures and guard railsand do they really know what
exactly it is that they'reprogramming?
The stuff is so new.
I mean, they know a lot morethan probably anyone about AI,
(15:00):
but there's still a lot for themto learn.
And so this overconfidence ofit's secure, it's safe.
Now we're rolling it out toreally big companies and we've
got really like flagship whitelabel products that companies
are buying into, that they'rerolling out to the organization
saying it's secure and there'snot going to be any data leaks.
These are really big claims andit's feeding the beast of the
(15:25):
Dunn and Krueger effect.
Right, Like we are confident,we know what we're doing, we're
rolling out in mass and it'sgoing to be fine.
Speaker 1 (15:32):
And I think the most current example that I can give
is the new Google AI, where theycoded in a clear and obvious
bias to the AI, having no idea,obviously, how that AI was going
to roll out that message.
They can say that they knew andthere was some guardrails or
(15:53):
whatever.
Obviously, you coming out andsaying, oh well, there's some
tweaks we have to make meansthat you were not aware that it
was going to react in that way,and so you've got some conscious
incompetence where you'reprogramming something in because
this is what I want, this ishow I want this to vocalize
itself.
Here are the biases I think areimportant, and you've got a
(16:15):
group of people, who are not theprogrammers, that are saying
this is what I want to programinto it, and then the
programmers are saying, ok, fine, and they're programing that in
.
And I think that's where yousee the most obvious case of
this, where Google, one of thelargest companies on the planet,
rolls out an AI product with aclear and obvious bias that was
immediately found and pickedapart by every reporter who
(16:38):
tried.
They have to kind of backtracknow, and so it's an interesting
twist on that.
Speaker 2 (16:44):
Yeah, the confidence that your product is going to
behave exactly as you think it'sgoing to when it's in a
completely new category isfascinating to continue watching
.
On the other level of AI,there's the public consumption
and there's the confidence there, right, that everything that
this AI product is going to giveme is going to be truth.
I'm in marketing, I'm a writer.
(17:05):
This is something that'saffecting my day to day, and so
we have had discussionsinternally within the company
that I work for how do we foldAI into our workflow to benefit
us, but how do we also maintaintruth and authenticity in what
we do?
And I think that's importantand it's not something that
everyone's thinking about,because there's no grain of salt
(17:28):
being taken with the contentspecifically, that this product
is pumping out to you, and, ifyou think about all the biases
and the confidence that is outthere already, the bot is just
taking that and repackaging itand handing it back to us.
So, from the public consumption, there's an overconfidence.
To take this artificialintelligence, which is really
(17:50):
running off of Dunning-Kruger,because it's running off of data
and information that humanbeings have put out there right,
and that leads to a very, veryquick, fast spread of
misinformation, which will thenbolster the engine to continue
working with that falseinformation.
There's good information outthere too.
I don't want to sound like aconspiracy theorist or an essay
or a nervous sally, but there isa lot of bad information out
(18:12):
there and these modules, theseproducts that are working on AI.
They don't know how todifferentiate between those yet
and we don't know how that'sgoing to evolve yet, and so I
think the public needs to bereally careful about how we are
taking information which couldbe wrong.
But again, that bias in ourbrain to see something as an
absolute truth is like okay,that makes sense to me and my
(18:33):
bias and it's just locked in now.
I mean, it's harder for you tothen challenge those ideas, and
then around and around andaround we go.
I think that's really dangerous.
I think AI is really reallyincredible.
I think it's a great asset anda great tool, but I think there
are definitely some limitationsthat I see connected to this
Dunning Krueger effect as well.
Speaker 1 (18:52):
Yeah, and on the terms of, again that unconscious
incompetence, right, you don'tknow what you don't know,
Knowing that AI, for the mostpart, has guardrails that are
established by the AI.
But you're talking about peoplerolling out AI into their
companies and everyone's doingthat, right?
I don't think there's a singlecompany in the planet right now
that's not incorporating AI insome way, shape or form, because
(19:13):
, oh wow, basically, access to asupercomputer that can just do
a lot of tedious work for me.
And there are so many examples,One of the which that comes to
mind is there's a programmer whodidn't want to pay for Open
AI's premium subscription andvery quickly found out that all
the chatbots for the dealershipsare using Open AI and they're
(19:34):
paying for the premiumsubscription.
And so this guy goes ontodealership websites and it says
hi, how are you, Would like tohelp you today?
What kind of car are youlooking for?
And he plugs in write me a lineof code that does this.
And the AI goes okay, noproblem.
And spits out a code.
And so his awareness of AI'sbeing plugged into car
(19:56):
dealership services and thepremium subscription being used
allows him a free- To skirt thepaywall.
To skirt the paywall.
But, more importantly, now youhave a free subscription, now
you have a dealership that hasprogrammed this AI model to do a
certain chat function andhasn't thought about the fact
that people are just going toask it random questions about
(20:17):
anything they would normally askOpen AI, and that that Open AI
is not programmed to have anykind of guardrails to keep them.
On the thought process of cars,you've got these guys that are
going oh man, this AI canbasically sell a car for me.
But okay, this AI can alsopractically incriminate you and
I'm really interested to seekind of where that goes and how
(20:40):
all kinds of the legal stuffthat I'm sure is eventually
going to come from it.
Your car dealership's websitesaid this to me because I asked
it for this prompt, because it'sbasically unfettered Open AI
behind the scenes.
When you're thinking in termsof innovation, you're thinking
of terms of how do I grow mybusiness, how do I use this AI
model, and there's all kinds ofthe buzzword in tech right now
(21:03):
is oh, we're going to create ourown closed AI that doesn't
interact with the world aroundus, so we can utilize this
advanced computing securely, soour data is not getting flooded
out there.
Speaker 2 (21:16):
I remember there was a, there was no overconfidence,
and that cage that you builtaround the product.
Speaker 1 (21:23):
Correct, and there's a couple instances where
earnings calls and boardmeetings and things.
Where there was an aid in theroom that was taking notes on a
board meeting that used chat GPTto consolidate those notes in
the board meeting and now it'spublic.
Now it's basically publicinformation, right, and so a lot
of companies are now scramblingto protect their data and build
(21:45):
AI models that are internal,and so, as you have these
hundreds and hundreds ofdifferent variations of the same
general product flooding intothe market, when you really
think about it, you're talkingabout, ai is replacing a lot of
monotonous tasks, but AI canalmost increase your unconscious
(22:06):
incompetence by giving you kindof a false sense of security,
where you just kind of expect itto generate the right answer.
Speaker 2 (22:14):
Well, it's a bit of a dog chasing its own tail, right
.
So maybe it's something like anAI product is bolstering your
confidence that you would notnormally have at a topic that
you are not well versed in, andthen, in turn, you are then
feeding the beast and you'respitting in because we're all
online, whether you're justwriting a Facebook post or
you're a journalist, or you justhappen to write corporate comms
(22:39):
for your company, we're all outthere producing content in some
way.
So then it bolsters yourconfidence in the material, and
then you go ahead and you putinformation out there and then
that then feeds back into theproduct, the artificial
intelligence, which is thenusing your data to form more
accurate and intelligentresponses to other people
(23:00):
looking for that sameinformation.
So I think the bottom line tokeep in mind is, to a degree, ai
is built on the Dunning-Krugereffect, because it is taking the
internet and all the knowledgeout there and it is pulling it
into itself and then giving youan answer based off of
everything it can find rightthat humans have put out there
(23:22):
on that topic, and there's goingto be overconfidence, there's
gonna be underconfidence.
There's all of those nuanceswithin the answer that you're
getting, and then you're alsoapplying your own overconfidence
or underconfidence andcompetency to that.
Speaker 1 (23:36):
Yeah, and I think we've all seen.
I mean, you go on any Instagrampage at all and you're gonna
run into people who are givingout monetary advice and here's
how you really grow and explodeyour business and all that kind
of stuff.
And there's a chart I meanthere's many.
If you just GoogleDunning-Kruger effect chart,
you'll see this kind of linegraph that has a heavy peak.
(23:57):
So at the bottom there's thissection where you know nothing.
There's the base of themountain, if you will, and then
there's this huge peak of yourlargest degree of unconscious
incompetence but you have themost amount of confidence.
Think of any task you're tryingto learn.
You say I wanna get intowoodworking and you buy a lathe
and you know nothing and you setthe lathe up, you watch one
YouTube video and you start tospin that piece of wood.
Speaker 2 (24:19):
Now you're an expert.
Speaker 1 (24:21):
And you go, oh, this is easier than I thought, and
that's your peak of unconsciousincompetence.
And then, on that same chart,now it looks like a roller
coaster.
You're at the peak, there is anabsolute chasm, and at the
bottom it's called the valley ofdespair.
Let's take that samewoodworking analogy.
This is that moment where youtry and make a bed rail or
(24:41):
something, and it's the wavy andridiculous looking where you
hit your first knot and, likethe wood kicks back and throws
the chisel out of your hand andyou're almost thinking you're
gonna die.
I was too confident, I knownothing.
And you get into this kind ofdesperation moment where, well,
is this even worth it?
Right, and when you pushthrough that downward curve of
(25:02):
is this even worth it at all,you kind of start to work up
what they call the slope ofenlightenment, where you're in
that conscious and competentstage where this is the point
where you're pushing andlearning and trying to get
better.
Speaker 2 (25:14):
And questioning.
Speaker 1 (25:15):
And this is where you can seek counsel from people
who know what you're talkingabout.
Go find that support system.
Go find your parent, yourmentor, whoever that person is
that's been through this before.
Seek help from them to guideyou through that slope of
enlightenment and help youbecome an expert in that
particular area.
And I think, within the scopeof what we do, you really never
(25:40):
become a full expert on anything, because we're constantly
working on different things, newideas, new spaces.
You're never going to become anexpert on lighting and
woodworking and metalworking,but you can rely on woodworkers
and metalworkers and interiordesigners and lighting experts
(26:01):
and leverage those people toimprove how you navigate a
project.
Speaker 2 (26:06):
So this is the first time that you're hearing about
Dunning-Crooger, or if this is arefresher and you are now older
and hopefully wiser and nowterrified of this effect, here's
some advice.
If you think, or here's someinsight If you think you're bad
at something, you're probably atworse, average or better,
(26:29):
because it means you have enoughinsight to recognize your own
incompetencies.
I think that's really really,really important takeaway.
So if you're worried, if youhave a, if you're a tradesman or
an artist or you're justworking on perfecting something
or you're learning a new craft,just keep that in mind.
If you think you're bad at it,you're probably doing okay or
better than most.
And if you want to avoid thiseffect, just be open to feedback
(26:55):
and try to keep in the back ofyour mind that you may not know
everything there is to knowabout your trade or your art or
your craft or your project.
Speaker 1 (27:05):
And you're never going to right.
And there's the differencebetween perspective and
perception and I think that thebiggest piece of the Dunning and
Kruger effect that it gives youwhen it comes to improvement or
innovation is that kind ofmetacognition where you're
thinking about your own process,understanding and accepting
that you're unconscious andcompetence.
(27:26):
It allows you to be self-aware,it lets you approach the
problem with some flexibility,some adaptability, and it gives
you the skills to be creative.
Learn from failure, do somestrategic planning when it comes
to innovation a lot likeworking out failure is not fatal
and success is not final andbeing aware that you can
(27:49):
progress beyond where youcurrently are, where you're
going to be, and push forwardinto another level of getting
past the perception of how youview everything and getting
perspective about thatparticular environment, those
particular people, whoeveryou're working with at this
moment, of getting perspectiveof how they're viewing things
and asking the right questionsto bring you from that conscious
(28:12):
and competence into moreconscious competence and then
kind of eventually becoming amaster of whatever it is.
So take the time to test andimprove, be introspective of
yourself and ask for help andtake the support system that
you're given.
So now you might be thinking toyourself okay, is it worth
(28:33):
learning new things?
Should I just seek experts?
Do I use AI?
Where do I go from here?
Is it worth getting through theconscious and competence Is it?
You know where do I go fromhere?
And I think that that's.
The next step is next week'sepisode.
What we're going to do is diveinto some decision fatigue and
(28:54):
what happens mentally to kind ofprevent some burnout when
you're trying to be innovative,you're trying to find these
solutions, and now I've justpresented you with this entire
scope of things basically sayingthat you just don't know what
you don't know and you're notgoing to know what you don't
(29:14):
know until someone tells youthat you're wrong and all this
kind of stuff.
Speaker 2 (29:18):
We want you to question everything, but don't
be afraid to make criticaldecisions.
Don't be afraid to just makethe next decision, make that
next step.
So join us next time.
We'll be going deep intodecision fatigue how to
recognize it, how to combat it.
Hopefully, how to get to yournext step.
Speaker 1 (29:39):
And thank you so much for joining us.
This is the Innovate Everythingpodcast, where we unpack and
explore innovation as innovators.
See you next week.
Hello and welcome back to the Inhibit Everything
podcast.
I'm your host, John Mowed.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
And I'm your other host, Caitlyn Mowed.
Speaker 1 (00:06):
And today we are going to be talking about the
Dunning-Kruger effect.
Now, the most important pieceof any puzzle is self-awareness,
so before that, we're gonnacrack open a rum.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
Mm.
Speaker 1 (00:22):
Yeah, so.
Speaker 2 (00:23):
We're going off the bourbon track today.
Speaker 1 (00:27):
So normally we go whiskey, bourbon, which is kind
of our what you would kind ofcall our safe zone, our happy
place.
But today we've got a foursquare rum distillery master
series edition number three.
It's a 14 year aged ex bourbonbarrel, ex sherry barrel rum
coming in at 120 proof.
(00:49):
What we're gonna do today isgive this a taste.
Now, this is a little bitdifferent than we normally do,
but I imagine you're gonna get alot of different notes too.
But it is a rum, so when yousmell it.
Speaker 2 (00:58):
I mean, it smells like a rum.
Speaker 1 (00:59):
It smells like a rum.
Speaker 2 (01:00):
It looks like a rum.
Probably gonna taste like a rum.
Speaker 1 (01:02):
It almost smells like a 151, honestly it does.
Yeah, it's got that very sharpkind of almost a stringentie
nose on it.
Speaker 2 (01:11):
Yeah, it smells like margaritaville.
Speaker 1 (01:13):
Margaritaville smells like like tourists and and 151.
Speaker 2 (01:17):
Sometime ocean and 151.
Speaker 1 (01:18):
151.
Okay, so immediately I get thatcotton candy effect where it
almost melts across your tongue.
It's got a very multi initial.
It's got caramel Front, Very,very smooth.
It's got some some hug on theback end, some heat there.
I do taste that sherry cask forsure.
Little bit of bourbonny on theback end on that exhale, but
(01:39):
honestly, mostly I'm getting rum.
It is making my mouth water, sothat's.
That's usually a good thingthat.
What are you tasting?
Speaker 2 (01:45):
I just taste caramel and rum.
Speaker 1 (01:48):
So so they would call that a caramel bomb.
So you got just a rum caramel.
This would be an incrediblemixer.
I would I mean.
It's incredible all by itself,it's delicious I could get.
Speaker 2 (01:59):
I can get in trouble on this.
Speaker 1 (02:01):
Yeah, it's definitely very.
Speaker 2 (02:02):
It's on the top shelf .
Speaker 1 (02:04):
Definitely very different.
It's very, very, very smooth.
I will give it 10 points forfor smooth.
Speaker 2 (02:10):
Like a candy.
Speaker 1 (02:11):
So, yeah, I'd recommend this one.
I think we're going to.
I'll be, I'll be sharing thiswith, with lots and lots of
friends, the.
It's the Four Square RumDistillery Master Series Edition
Number Three.
How do you recommend Greatbottle?
So let's move past the, thetasting, let's move into
(02:31):
something we don't know a lotabout, right?
So the Dunning Kruger Effect.
What is the Dunning KrugerEffect?
Speaker 2 (02:38):
I knew you were going to say that.
I think this is something thatwe all have heard.
It's not a new concept or a newstudy.
I'll be one of those thingswhere I know when you first said
we're going to talk aboutDunning Kruger, I was like, ooh,
that's in there, that's in theback of my mind somewhere.
But I have to go find that,that filing cabinet and brush up
on it because it's been a longtime.
(02:59):
But we've all probably brushed,you know, brushed against this
concept at some point in ourlives, whether that's in psych
101 class, because we all werepsych majors at some point in
our lives, or, you know, justtalking within our professional
careers.
But so the Dunning KrugerEffect is a cognitive bias where
individuals with lowerabilities at a task tend to
(03:21):
overestimate their competence,while those at a higher ability
may underestimate theirexpertise on the same task.
So this phenomenon issignificant in the context of
self-awareness because ithighlights the disconnect
between actual skill and anindividual's perception of their
ability.
That's exactly what it is.
(03:41):
I think it's important to gointo the why we have the Dunning
Kruger Effect.
These two psychologists, davidDunning and Justin Kruger they
were social psychologists.
They noticed somethinginteresting.
They had a hypothesis thatthere was a disconnect between
(04:01):
actual skill level and how muchsomeone would rate that skill
level personally,introspectively.
So they decided to find out ifthere was a correlation.
So what they did was they took45 undergraduates, which is
shocking to me, because when youtalk about a study, 45 people
(04:22):
is not a lot.
So I find that reallyinteresting that they didn't
have a bigger pool.
But there were studies that werebased on the Dunning-Kruger
study later that did confirmthat this pet teeth holds water.
So they took 45 undergraduatesand they gave them a 20-question
logic test.
Then they asked them to ratetheir performance.
They asked them to estimate howmany questions they got right
and then to estimate how wellthey did compared to their peers
(04:45):
.
And what's interesting is theeffect doesn't really show up
when they're asked the firstpart.
So when they're asked toestimate how many questions they
got right, it was found thatregardless of actual skill level
, people tend to rate theirknowledge the same.
So those with less skill theyestimated that they scored 20
(05:06):
points on average higher thanthey actually did.
And then those who actually hadmore skill guess that they
scored around 15 points lower.
So both groups thought theyperformed at the same level,
regardless of their skill set.
So basically saying that thepopulation.
We can then assume that thepopulation thinks that they're
about B plus players when itcomes to stuff like this, which
(05:29):
is interesting.
The deviation comes when theywere then asked to compare
themselves against their peers,and that's where it gets really
interesting.
So in this study, the lowestscoring students estimated that
they did better than 62% ofother test takers, while the
higher scoring students thoughtthey scored better than only 68%
(05:51):
.
So the more skill you had, youwere less confident that you
knew more than the guy sittingnext to you or the girl sitting
next to you.
Speaker 1 (05:59):
The Dunning-Kruber effect is used oftentimes to
kind of illustrate that dumbpeople don't know they're dumb.
Whether that's right or wrong,I think when you get somebody
who says, well, dumb people justdon't know they're dumb, I
think what that usually means isthat they themselves are
lacking a little bit ofself-awareness, and I think the
whole goal of the Dunning-Krubereffect is self-awareness.
(06:21):
So by just saying something asblatant as dumb people don't
know they're dumb, everyone hasa specific set of skills, an
area in which they are to somedegree an expert, and so the
Dunning-Kruber effect iseffectively brought into four
categories, where they callunconscious competence, where
you're ignorant and you justdon't know it yet.
Conscious competence, whereyou're aware of what you don't
(06:44):
know but you haven't taken thesteps to learn more.
Conscious competence, which isyou're actively learning and
acquiring knowledge of a subject.
And then unconscious competence, where you've mastered a
subject to an extent that's soextensive that you forget or
take advantage or take forgranted how much you really know
about that topic.
(07:05):
And so you'll often hear a lotof experts in the industry say
I've forgotten more than mostpeople know, and that's not
necessarily true.
They've forgotten.
I'm sure they've forgotten somethings, but they use that as a
way of saying that there's somany things that I almost don't
remember.
In this quest to learn moreabout whatever it is I'm
learning, I think as far asinnovative at the ordinary, we
(07:27):
almost have to live in aconstant state of conscious and
competence.
That self-awareness of thecompany is what allows us to ask
the right questions and seekthe right answers from the
experts, to bring forthsomething where we say you know
what?
We're going to acknowledge thatwe are consciously incompetent
(07:49):
in all these areas.
Now let's go out and findexperts to fill those needs.
And so if your goal is to be aninventor, an innovator,
whatever it may be, I think ahuge portion of what you're
trying to achieve is going to beunderstanding your conscious
and competence.
The best way that I personallycan bring conscious and
(08:10):
competence into an area whereeveryone kind of understands
what I'm talking about, I wouldgo to learning how to drive.
So whether you're a parent,whether you're a student,
everyone in the car is aware ofyour conscious and competence.
And if you're a mother or afather, you've got your
(08:30):
fingernails dug into thedashboard just slamming on your
imaginary brake pedal.
You're trying your hardest toallow your student to learn.
But because of your mindfulness, your unconscious competence,
you say things like you have tocheck your blind spot, which is
kind of inherently on autopilotfor you, but it gives your child
(08:54):
a little bit of anxiety becausethey are aware that they don't
know all the steps yet.
So embracing those new tasks,embracing that unconscious
incompetence, will really giveyou an option where you can
embrace it in your own workplace.
I always reference that we neverleft the playground.
All these leadership models andhow we learn things.
None of that changes from thetime we're young.
(09:15):
As you heard last week JohnJarmillo saying that stuff
doesn't change.
We just change how wearticulate.
We change the words that areassociated with those tasks, and
so if you watch children learnsomething, you can really see
these steps play out.
Speaker 2 (09:33):
Yeah, and I think it's important to understand
that our brains like absolutesand I think that the driving
analogy is great because thiseffect, this unconscious
incompetency, is a mental blindspot.
It's a blind spot in our brainsbiologically and I think a
(09:56):
really good example of that toois the do you remember the blue
and black, gold and white dressargument online?
Yeah, this is a great, greatexample of kind of Dunn and
Krueger.
I mean, it's a perceptiondifference and we're not going
to go into the biology of theeyes and the cones and the rods
and why some people see itdifferently, but those who are
(10:18):
seeing it very much one way.
I personally saw a white andgold dress and I think you saw a
blue and black dress like rightout of the gate.
And when you're looking atsomething and your ring is
telling you that's it's truth,I'm seeing something.
It's truth, it's notquestionable, it's not for
debate.
It's really hard to takesomething that you see as
(10:41):
absolute truth and understandthat the person next to you
thinks that that's crazy becausethey're seeing something
different.
And that is the blind spot thatwe are working with in every
area of our life, because, justbecause you think that what you
have is the absolute truth, oryour brain is telling you like
this is how the world works, orthis is how my trade is set up
(11:02):
and this is the best way to fixa problem or design something.
It doesn't mean it's always thebest and realizing that there
could be a different way or abetter way is hard to do.
And, like you said, ask thosequestions and lean on other
people to see and, kind ofpressure, test your own ideas.
It takes practice because it'snot, it doesn't come natural to
(11:22):
us, like our brains, likeabsolutes.
They grab, they grab hold ofthem and it's really hard for us
to let go of those and it goesagainst our nature.
Speaker 1 (11:31):
And I think that's the most important piece, right
is embracing that frustration.
There was a manager when I wasat Apple that, as we were doing
our training, said the term youdon't know what you don't know,
and it stuck with me for myentire working life.
For me it's as we learn and wegrow and move forward and move
through these moments ofunconscious incompetence.
(11:54):
There are so many ways that youcan navigate through those
waters and bring yourself intoconscious incompetence.
But I feel like what happens inmore times than not, especially
with the younger generation,especially with Gen Zers the
number of times I've seen theseinterviews on TikTok or whatever
it is, where someone's askingGen Zers who's the 17th
(12:17):
president of the United Statesor whatever, gen Zers almost
immediately default to well, I'mstupid, I don't know.
And I find that that answer tobe strange because as a
millennial right, we wouldeither say I don't know or, on
the other side of it, consciousand competence, very confidently
make something up, veryconfidently, say Hoover, right,
(12:39):
and then just pretend thatthat's okay.
And then when someone pointsout that we're wrong, then a
millennial would say oh, oh,you're right, you're right,
right, I gotta mix up, right,like historically.
There's that unconscious andcompetence.
But I find it fascinating thatGen Z and we can talk about a
thousand different reasons towhy, right, you can go all the
way to the we're beingprogrammed by our enemies, by
(13:02):
the Chinese and Chinese cultureis kind of encroaching into our
society, to education haschanged and the system has
changed and things are just verydifferent than they were over
to it's the social media.
Whatever the reason that youbelieve that the younger
generation approaches thatdifferently than a previous
(13:22):
generation, gen Z seems to beweirdly okay with sitting in
conscious and competence andinstead of saying, oh, that's
interesting, I didn't know that,let me look that up they just
default to I don't know, and Ithink some of that is because of
things like the internet andthings like AI that bring us
(13:43):
into this world where we canjust allow the quote unquote
smarter machine tell us theanswer.
And so I think that that part,to me, is the most interesting
and I'd like to hear youropinion on that.
Speaker 2 (13:56):
Yeah, I think it affects everyone and it impacts
everything.
It holds talent back and itkeeps potential from being
realized.
You know, like you said, you'vegot a population.
I hate to generalize and dothat, but we have young kids
tend to say, oh, I don't know,and it's holding back their
potential of being realizedwhere they.
(14:17):
Maybe they have a photographicmemory and they do know the
information, but they're notstepping out because of
unconscious limitations thatthey've put on themselves.
But when it comes to AI, I thinkit's interesting because
artificial intelligence isreally affected by this whole
phenomenon in two different waysor on two different levels.
(14:38):
First, with the programming andcreation of AI modules, right,
you have really overconfidentprogrammers who are putting on
control measures and guard railsand do they really know what
exactly it is that they'reprogramming?
The stuff is so new.
I mean, they know a lot morethan probably anyone about AI,
(15:00):
but there's still a lot for themto learn.
And so this overconfidence ofit's secure, it's safe.
Now we're rolling it out toreally big companies and we've
got really like flagship whitelabel products that companies
are buying into, that they'rerolling out to the organization
saying it's secure and there'snot going to be any data leaks.
These are really big claims andit's feeding the beast of the
(15:25):
Dunn and Krueger effect.
Right, Like we are confident,we know what we're doing, we're
rolling out in mass and it'sgoing to be fine.
Speaker 1 (15:32):
And I think the most current example that I can give
is the new Google AI, where theycoded in a clear and obvious
bias to the AI, having no idea,obviously, how that AI was going
to roll out that message.
They can say that they knew andthere was some guardrails or
(15:53):
whatever.
Obviously, you coming out andsaying, oh well, there's some
tweaks we have to make meansthat you were not aware that it
was going to react in that way,and so you've got some conscious
incompetence where you'reprogramming something in because
this is what I want, this ishow I want this to vocalize
itself.
Here are the biases I think areimportant, and you've got a
(16:15):
group of people, who are not theprogrammers, that are saying
this is what I want to programinto it, and then the
programmers are saying, ok, fine, and they're programing that in
.
And I think that's where yousee the most obvious case of
this, where Google, one of thelargest companies on the planet,
rolls out an AI product with aclear and obvious bias that was
immediately found and pickedapart by every reporter who
(16:38):
tried.
They have to kind of backtracknow, and so it's an interesting
twist on that.
Speaker 2 (16:44):
Yeah, the confidence that your product is going to
behave exactly as you think it'sgoing to when it's in a
completely new category isfascinating to continue watching
.
On the other level of AI,there's the public consumption
and there's the confidence there, right, that everything that
this AI product is going to giveme is going to be truth.
I'm in marketing, I'm a writer.
(17:05):
This is something that'saffecting my day to day, and so
we have had discussionsinternally within the company
that I work for how do we foldAI into our workflow to benefit
us, but how do we also maintaintruth and authenticity in what
we do?
And I think that's importantand it's not something that
everyone's thinking about,because there's no grain of salt
(17:28):
being taken with the contentspecifically, that this product
is pumping out to you, and, ifyou think about all the biases
and the confidence that is outthere already, the bot is just
taking that and repackaging itand handing it back to us.
So, from the public consumption, there's an overconfidence.
To take this artificialintelligence, which is really
(17:50):
running off of Dunning-Kruger,because it's running off of data
and information that humanbeings have put out there right,
and that leads to a very, veryquick, fast spread of
misinformation, which will thenbolster the engine to continue
working with that falseinformation.
There's good information outthere too.
I don't want to sound like aconspiracy theorist or an essay
or a nervous sally, but there isa lot of bad information out
(18:12):
there and these modules, theseproducts that are working on AI.
They don't know how todifferentiate between those yet
and we don't know how that'sgoing to evolve yet, and so I
think the public needs to bereally careful about how we are
taking information which couldbe wrong.
But again, that bias in ourbrain to see something as an
absolute truth is like okay,that makes sense to me and my
(18:33):
bias and it's just locked in now.
I mean, it's harder for you tothen challenge those ideas, and
then around and around andaround we go.
I think that's really dangerous.
I think AI is really reallyincredible.
I think it's a great asset anda great tool, but I think there
are definitely some limitationsthat I see connected to this
Dunning Krueger effect as well.
Speaker 1 (18:52):
Yeah, and on the terms of, again that unconscious
incompetence, right, you don'tknow what you don't know,
Knowing that AI, for the mostpart, has guardrails that are
established by the AI.
But you're talking about peoplerolling out AI into their
companies and everyone's doingthat, right?
I don't think there's a singlecompany in the planet right now
that's not incorporating AI insome way, shape or form, because
(19:13):
, oh wow, basically, access to asupercomputer that can just do
a lot of tedious work for me.
And there are so many examples,One of the which that comes to
mind is there's a programmer whodidn't want to pay for Open
AI's premium subscription andvery quickly found out that all
the chatbots for the dealershipsare using Open AI and they're
(19:34):
paying for the premiumsubscription.
And so this guy goes ontodealership websites and it says
hi, how are you, Would like tohelp you today?
What kind of car are youlooking for?
And he plugs in write me a lineof code that does this.
And the AI goes okay, noproblem.
And spits out a code.
And so his awareness of AI'sbeing plugged into car
(19:56):
dealership services and thepremium subscription being used
allows him a free- To skirt thepaywall.
To skirt the paywall.
But, more importantly, now youhave a free subscription, now
you have a dealership that hasprogrammed this AI model to do a
certain chat function andhasn't thought about the fact
that people are just going toask it random questions about
(20:17):
anything they would normally askOpen AI, and that that Open AI
is not programmed to have anykind of guardrails to keep them.
On the thought process of cars,you've got these guys that are
going oh man, this AI canbasically sell a car for me.
But okay, this AI can alsopractically incriminate you and
I'm really interested to seekind of where that goes and how
(20:40):
all kinds of the legal stuffthat I'm sure is eventually
going to come from it.
Your car dealership's websitesaid this to me because I asked
it for this prompt, because it'sbasically unfettered Open AI
behind the scenes.
When you're thinking in termsof innovation, you're thinking
of terms of how do I grow mybusiness, how do I use this AI
model, and there's all kinds ofthe buzzword in tech right now
(21:03):
is oh, we're going to create ourown closed AI that doesn't
interact with the world aroundus, so we can utilize this
advanced computing securely, soour data is not getting flooded
out there.
Speaker 2 (21:16):
I remember there was a, there was no overconfidence,
and that cage that you builtaround the product.
Speaker 1 (21:23):
Correct, and there's a couple instances where
earnings calls and boardmeetings and things.
Where there was an aid in theroom that was taking notes on a
board meeting that used chat GPTto consolidate those notes in
the board meeting and now it'spublic.
Now it's basically publicinformation, right, and so a lot
of companies are now scramblingto protect their data and build
(21:45):
AI models that are internal,and so, as you have these
hundreds and hundreds ofdifferent variations of the same
general product flooding intothe market, when you really
think about it, you're talkingabout, ai is replacing a lot of
monotonous tasks, but AI canalmost increase your unconscious
(22:06):
incompetence by giving you kindof a false sense of security,
where you just kind of expect itto generate the right answer.
Speaker 2 (22:14):
Well, it's a bit of a dog chasing its own tail, right
.
So maybe it's something like anAI product is bolstering your
confidence that you would notnormally have at a topic that
you are not well versed in, andthen, in turn, you are then
feeding the beast and you'respitting in because we're all
online, whether you're justwriting a Facebook post or
you're a journalist, or you justhappen to write corporate comms
(22:39):
for your company, we're all outthere producing content in some
way.
So then it bolsters yourconfidence in the material, and
then you go ahead and you putinformation out there and then
that then feeds back into theproduct, the artificial
intelligence, which is thenusing your data to form more
accurate and intelligentresponses to other people
(23:00):
looking for that sameinformation.
So I think the bottom line tokeep in mind is, to a degree, ai
is built on the Dunning-Krugereffect, because it is taking the
internet and all the knowledgeout there and it is pulling it
into itself and then giving youan answer based off of
everything it can find rightthat humans have put out there
(23:22):
on that topic, and there's goingto be overconfidence, there's
gonna be underconfidence.
There's all of those nuanceswithin the answer that you're
getting, and then you're alsoapplying your own overconfidence
or underconfidence andcompetency to that.
Speaker 1 (23:36):
Yeah, and I think we've all seen.
I mean, you go on any Instagrampage at all and you're gonna
run into people who are givingout monetary advice and here's
how you really grow and explodeyour business and all that kind
of stuff.
And there's a chart I meanthere's many.
If you just GoogleDunning-Kruger effect chart,
you'll see this kind of linegraph that has a heavy peak.
(23:57):
So at the bottom there's thissection where you know nothing.
There's the base of themountain, if you will, and then
there's this huge peak of yourlargest degree of unconscious
incompetence but you have themost amount of confidence.
Think of any task you're tryingto learn.
You say I wanna get intowoodworking and you buy a lathe
and you know nothing and you setthe lathe up, you watch one
YouTube video and you start tospin that piece of wood.
Speaker 2 (24:19):
Now you're an expert.
Speaker 1 (24:21):
And you go, oh, this is easier than I thought, and
that's your peak of unconsciousincompetence.
And then, on that same chart,now it looks like a roller
coaster.
You're at the peak, there is anabsolute chasm, and at the
bottom it's called the valley ofdespair.
Let's take that samewoodworking analogy.
This is that moment where youtry and make a bed rail or
(24:41):
something, and it's the wavy andridiculous looking where you
hit your first knot and, likethe wood kicks back and throws
the chisel out of your hand andyou're almost thinking you're
gonna die.
I was too confident, I knownothing.
And you get into this kind ofdesperation moment where, well,
is this even worth it?
Right, and when you pushthrough that downward curve of
(25:02):
is this even worth it at all,you kind of start to work up
what they call the slope ofenlightenment, where you're in
that conscious and competentstage where this is the point
where you're pushing andlearning and trying to get
better.
Speaker 2 (25:14):
And questioning.
Speaker 1 (25:15):
And this is where you can seek counsel from people
who know what you're talkingabout.
Go find that support system.
Go find your parent, yourmentor, whoever that person is
that's been through this before.
Seek help from them to guideyou through that slope of
enlightenment and help youbecome an expert in that
particular area.
And I think, within the scopeof what we do, you really never
(25:40):
become a full expert on anything, because we're constantly
working on different things, newideas, new spaces.
You're never going to become anexpert on lighting and
woodworking and metalworking,but you can rely on woodworkers
and metalworkers and interiordesigners and lighting experts
(26:01):
and leverage those people toimprove how you navigate a
project.
Speaker 2 (26:06):
So this is the first time that you're hearing about
Dunning-Crooger, or if this is arefresher and you are now older
and hopefully wiser and nowterrified of this effect, here's
some advice.
If you think, or here's someinsight If you think you're bad
at something, you're probably atworse, average or better,
(26:29):
because it means you have enoughinsight to recognize your own
incompetencies.
I think that's really really,really important takeaway.
So if you're worried, if youhave a, if you're a tradesman or
an artist or you're justworking on perfecting something
or you're learning a new craft,just keep that in mind.
If you think you're bad at it,you're probably doing okay or
better than most.
And if you want to avoid thiseffect, just be open to feedback
(26:55):
and try to keep in the back ofyour mind that you may not know
everything there is to knowabout your trade or your art or
your craft or your project.
Speaker 1 (27:05):
And you're never going to right.
And there's the differencebetween perspective and
perception and I think that thebiggest piece of the Dunning and
Kruger effect that it gives youwhen it comes to improvement or
innovation is that kind ofmetacognition where you're
thinking about your own process,understanding and accepting
that you're unconscious andcompetence.
(27:26):
It allows you to be self-aware,it lets you approach the
problem with some flexibility,some adaptability, and it gives
you the skills to be creative.
Learn from failure, do somestrategic planning when it comes
to innovation a lot likeworking out failure is not fatal
and success is not final andbeing aware that you can
(27:49):
progress beyond where youcurrently are, where you're
going to be, and push forwardinto another level of getting
past the perception of how youview everything and getting
perspective about thatparticular environment, those
particular people, whoeveryou're working with at this
moment, of getting perspectiveof how they're viewing things
and asking the right questionsto bring you from that conscious
(28:12):
and competence into moreconscious competence and then
kind of eventually becoming amaster of whatever it is.
So take the time to test andimprove, be introspective of
yourself and ask for help andtake the support system that
you're given.
So now you might be thinking toyourself okay, is it worth
(28:33):
learning new things?
Should I just seek experts?
Do I use AI?
Where do I go from here?
Is it worth getting through theconscious and competence Is it?
You know where do I go fromhere?
And I think that that's.
The next step is next week'sepisode.
What we're going to do is diveinto some decision fatigue and
(28:54):
what happens mentally to kind ofprevent some burnout when
you're trying to be innovative,you're trying to find these
solutions, and now I've justpresented you with this entire
scope of things basically sayingthat you just don't know what
you don't know and you're notgoing to know what you don't
(29:14):
know until someone tells youthat you're wrong and all this
kind of stuff.
Speaker 2 (29:18):
We want you to question everything, but don't
be afraid to make criticaldecisions.
Don't be afraid to just makethe next decision, make that
next step.
So join us next time.
We'll be going deep intodecision fatigue how to
recognize it, how to combat it.
Hopefully, how to get to yournext step.
Speaker 1 (29:39):
And thank you so much for joining us.
This is the Innovate Everythingpodcast, where we unpack and
explore innovation as innovators.
See you next week.
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