Inside Political Science #028 – Interpreting Public Opinion: What Polling is Really About

What’s the role of a pollster? Is it about getting the numbers right? Or can they help us predict the future? Kirby invites Cliff Young from Ipsos to the show to discuss how pollsters measure and interpret public opinion. Cliff says pollsters serve as a bridge between those who govern and those who are governed. They try to understand what people are thinking and how that affects future political outcomes. He says people only see the accuracy of the polls, but there’s a lot more to it: providing narrative and context is critical, and ultimately, their goal is to avoid election surprises. Later, Kirby and Cliff break down nativism and its impact on immigration and tariff policies. There’s a clash over what makes someone an American - is it about birthplace or is it about ideals? With Trump’s focus on immigration and current events in California, Cliff and Kirby agree that nativism isn’t necessarily increasing, but is becoming more polarized. Will we reach a consensus and move on as a nation to another issue? They say no, at least not in the short term. For more on this show and to listen to past episodes, visit tx.ag/insidepoliticalscience.