Episode Transcript
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SPEAKER_00 (00:10):
Early investors and
the right companies could see
exponential growth.
If you've invested in personalcomputing in the 1980s or the
internet in 1990s, you mighthave seen massive returns once
this technology's reshaped theworld.
Fusion stands at a similarjuncture today.
A few firms are developingbreakthrough reactors, and if
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one of them cracks the codecommercially, the value creation
would be immense, which theyalready have cracked the code.
This is like such a paradoxicalthing of like, oh, we we're
almost there, we just need moremoney.
And then over here we just readthey are there, but now they
need more money.
It's it's insane.
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They just need like an actualgovernment to back it rather
than just put making this allprivate.
The problem is that it'sprivate.
That's the problem.
Beyond direct investments,profits, a 40 trillion fusion
industry would mean lots ofeconomic activity, new
companies, new jobs, possiblyeven new infrastructure.
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Imagine building fusion powerplants across the country,
similar to how oil boom createdrefineries and pipelines.
Entire regions could become hubsof fusion tech development.
For example, there's the talk ofSeattle area becoming fusion
town USA because multiple fusionstartups are clustering there.
This is reminiscent of SiliconValley's rise during the
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Computer Revolution or Houston'srise during the oil boom.
It's clear that Helio's projectand the fusion energy are not
simply another tech trend, butpotentially the largest economic
opportunity of the comingdecades.
With an estimated 40 trillion,it could eclipse the buzzworthy
industries of today.
For an investor, that means thatalthough fusion might feel like
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it's science fiction, it'sactually about the future of
global economy, an opportunityso large that it could shape the
investment landscape for therest of our lives and well
beyond.
As well, as always, such largenumbers come with uncertainty,
but they signal why so manysmart and deep pocketed people
are directing their attention tocapital fusion now.
Key idea number three.
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So this ought to be good.
Energy utilities oh transformingindustries from power to
agriculture.
The third key idea of AmazonHelios is transformative ripple
effect that the fusion energycould have across countless
industries and aspects of dailylife.
It's not just about cheaperelectricity, it's about what
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cheap and plentiful energyenables us to do differently.
And there are a few specificsectors that could revolutionize
that could be revolutionized byfusion.
Energy utilities andinfrastructure.
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Electric grids could become morestable and flexible.
For instance, because fusionplants don't need vast fuel
mines or as much cooling likebig fission plants, they can
ideally be placed near citiesreducing transmission losses.
With abundant power, we couldalso supercharge the expansion
of VVs without straining thegrid, since fusion could meet
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the extra demand easily.
This means the transportationsector becomes more sustainable
faster.
Some proponents argue fusionwill be the backbone that
finally allows us to electrifyeverything.
This is a concept called deepelectrification.
In practical terms, for everydayconsumers, this would mean
better service reliability andpossibly new options like
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microfusion reactors.
Agriculture and food production.
Fusion's impact on food andwater might not be immediately
obvious, but it's potentiallyhuge.
Agriculture is energy intensivein some ways.
Making fertilizer relies onnatural gas through Haberbosch
process for ammonia, irrigation,irrigation, and water pumping
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need electricity.
And controlled environmentfarming like greenhouses and
vertical farms with grow lightsrequire lots of power.
With cheap fusion energy, wecould produce fertilizers with
less cost and no carbon,boosting yield crops
sustainably.
We could also power massivedesalinization plants to turn
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seawater into irrigation water,green deserts, or rescue
drought-stricken farmland.
By removing energy as abottleneck, fusion could allow
humanity to generate ample freshwater and grow food in climates
out of season that werepreviously not viable.
Imagine giant indoor farms inyour cities powered by fusion
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reactors, producing fusionproduce fresh oh my gosh,
producing fresh produceyear-round, or coastal fusion
powered desalinization,providing drinking water to
entire states.
These changes could improve foodsecurity and reduce resource
conflicts.
For investors, this hints atopportunities not just for
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nuclear reactor makers, but incompanies will leverage cheap
energy for water andagricultural solutions.
Manufacturing and high-techindustry.
Manufacturing often involveshigh temperatures, which
currently come from burningfossil fuels.
Materials that are currentlyexpensive to produce might
become cheaper if energy isminimized.
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In addition, tech industrieslike semiconductor fabrication
could also benefit.
Those plants use enormousamounts of electricity for clean
rooms and equipment.
Cheaper power lowers operatingcosts, potentially making
electronics cheaper or marginshigher.
Essentially any industry whereenergy is significant and has a
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significant input cost stands togain.
Transportation and space.
Beyond Earth, fusion couldrevolutionize space travel.
This might be a bit furtherafield, but worth noting, if we
master fusion power plants, thenknowledge can translate into
propulsion.
Engineers have theorizedfusion-powered spacecraft that
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could dramatically shortentravel time to Mars or beyond,
by providing continuous thrustfar more efficient than chemical
rockets.
Even on Earth, transportindustries benefit indirectly.
For example, railways or futurehyperloops running on fusion
supplied electricity or insynthetic fuels like ammonia or
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hydrogen-based fuels with fusionenergy to power ships and
airplanes in a carbon neutralway.
As an investor, you might not beable to invest in rocket ships,
but you might see companies likeaerospace firms pivot to include
fusion power designs, blah blahblah blah blah.
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Healthcare and research.
Indirectly, abundant energymeans we can do more than more
in health care and science too.
High powered computing for drugdiscovery discovery or AI would
be no problem if electricity ischeap.
Hospitals are energy hogs.
Fusion could ensure that theyalways have low-cost power,
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which might reduce health careoperating costs in the long run.
Even things like waterpurification for safe drinking,
water might tie back to energy.
They've already said this.
Fusion might not directly cureall illnesses, but improved
resources and reduced pollutioncould create healthier
environments globally.
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In essence, fusion's impact willradia outward in virtually every
corner of the economy.
Helios Vision isn't just aboutpower plants, it's about a
cascade of positive changes,lower costs, newer capabilities,
and solutions to energyconstraints.
This is why the World EconomicForum and observers are so
excited.
Some have said fusion couldrevolutionarize our world.
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For investors, it means theHelios opportunity is
multifaceted.
I'm so tired of reading forinvestors.
One could invest not only in thecompanies trying to build fusion
reactors, but also in thosepoised to benefit from cheap
stuff.
Why now?
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Breakthroughs and Bezosinvolvement.
Why now?
Why is the Amazon Helios projectin the spotlight at the moment,
rather than say 20 years ago or20 years from now?
It's all about timing.
The convergence of recentscientific breakthroughs, urgent
global needs, and theinvolvement of visionary backers
like Jeff Bezos.
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That make today a pivotal momentfor fusion energy.
I feel like wait.
I'm just not gonna say anything.
I think billionaires should uhshould help people eat and not
have giant yachts and stuff likethat, but whatever.
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Think of it as a Wright Brothersmoment for fusion, just as the
first 12-second flight at KittyHawk proved air travel was
possible, that brief ignitionproved the controlled fusion
yield net energy was possible.
A key element of Helios'narrative is Bezos' involvement.
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Bezos, the billionaire founderof Amazon, has indeed been
quietly funding fusion researchfor a long time.
He invested in a Canadian fusionstartup called General Fusion
more than a decade, which wejust read about.
For 14 years now, Bezos VentureFund and others have pumped
money into fusion projects,signaling a strong belief that
this technology will pay off inthe future.
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And famously in 2023, Microsoftsigned a deal to buy electricity
from Fusion startup HelionEnergy by 2028.
Even OpenAI Sam Altman investedheavily in Helion, and Bill
Gates has funded a fusioncompany called Commonwealth
Fusion Systems.
In short, many big names intechnology and business are now
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involved in pushing fusionforward.
This matters because thesepeople bringing in not just
money but also attention,talent, and credibility, when
Amazon's founder and Microsoftare putting money into fusion,
it's a signal that this is notFrench science anymore.
It's moving into the mainstreamof serious innovation.
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At the same time, the war inUkraine and other geopolitical
tensions have reminded nationsthat relying on imported fossil
fuels is risky.
Fusion, once developed, can bedone domestically by any nation
with the technology, since thefuel is widely available.
This strategic aspect meansgovernments are now more than
ever willing to invest in fusionresearch and development and
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streamline regulations.
In late 2023, the US and UK evensigned a cooperation agreement
on fusion, and 35 countrieslaunched a plan to accelerate
fusion development.
So, unlike in earlier eras whenfusion research projects plotted
along on limited budgets, wejust read the other thing too.
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That's so funny.
General fusion.
And then they talk about itright here.
So unlike earlier eras whenfusion research plotted along on
limited budgets, there's aconcerted international push,
essentially a sense that we needfusion and we need it as soon as
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possible.
In summary, fusion's time is nowdue to convergence of scientific
progress, technological aid,influential backing, and global
urgency.
The Amazon Helios Projectcapitalizes on this moment.
Whitney Tielsen and TransburyResearch highlight these points
to explain why this researchisn't just idle chatter.
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Okay, so I was getting too tiredto continue when I was
previously recording.
I was just mixing up all mywords and I was getting too
tired, so I had to take a break,and now I'm gonna I'm back and
I'm gonna read some more, andwe're almost at the end of this
article, but I wanted to go oversome stuff that I had read last
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time.
Uh I had just read at the sametime the war in Ukraine and
other geopolitical tensions havereminded nations that relying on
imported fossil fuels is risky,fusion once developed can do can
be done domestically by anynation with the technology since
the fuel is widely available.
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This part is also very critical,that it's talking about national
sovereignty and that any nationthat gets fusion will get its
sovereignty, which coulddestabilize the uh supremacist
hegemonic uh imperialist likeworld order and uh economic
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systems like the petrodollar andthe International Monetary Fund,
the IMF, as well as other uh uhsystems of control uh from this
uh superstructure of the globe,of the elites.
So a nation could buck thesystem and go rogue,
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potentially, and it could beanybody, anybody that did it.
They could be the number one,and the same thing with AI.
They're saying that any countrythat gets AGI or artificial
general intelligence, the firstone to do it will have its own
sovereignty.
So these things seem to be tiedtogether very closely, and it's
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gonna say that earlier uh latertoo.
So uh and let me just alsoremind you guys, because this is
extremely important, it talkedabout healthcare and research,
transportation and spaceexploration, manufacturing,
high-tech industry, agricultureand food, energy and utilities
and infrastructure.
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And in the news uh in the lastcouple months, it's been talking
about New Jersey and all thesedifferent communities that have
been poisoned by massive datacenters, and that there the
water is being poisoned andwasted, and not only that, but
there are superclusters of rarecancers already popping up
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around these data centers, uh,as well as apparently uh nitrate
um like poisoning and messing upthe nitrate cycle and nitrogen
cycle.
So that's pretty startling, butthe fact that we're talking
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about it revolutionizing everysingle industry, this is like
our whole way of life.
Not only that are people beingpoisoned by the data centers and
and these uh all thisinfrastructure for this stuff,
but it's taking people'selectricity away as well, and
people are having to pay higherprices for electricity.
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And so this is fusion and AIhave to do with our entire way
of life and the entire globe.
Basically all life on Earth areaffected by this.
If we were to stop using carbonuh carbon fuels, then we could
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save many, many people.
Many, many animals.
Entire species could be saved.
They're talking about like amassive amount of species will
be extinct by twenty onehundred.
We could prevent that with thistechnology and even reverse some
of it.
So that's very important for usto understand that this is about
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way more uh than just fusion oror one person or anything like
that.
So we'll continue reading here.
For an investor who might haveheard about fusion in the news
occasionally over the decades,the difference today is
tangible.
Net energy gain has beendemonstrated in a lab.
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Companies are building prototypeplants, such as General Fusion,
aims to have one running in2025, and even contracts for
future fusion power are beingsigned.
Opportunities and risks forearly investors.
So this is like gonna talk toyou about how to invest in
fusion.
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If you're someone nearingretirement age who has seen
cycles of booms and bustsbefore, just what does Amazon
Helios project mean as aninvestment opportunity?
And just as crucially, what arethe risks and uncertainties to
keep in mind?
Okay, so this is interesting.
The fact that older people haveseen booms and busts before, and
that we're told that this issupposed to be a very stable
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system, like that's what peoplelook to America as, and that's
why they invest their money inthe dollar.
Is because historically peoplehave been led to believe that
it's the most stable economy inthe world.
But yet, here we are seeing theproof is in the pudding here of
retirement age people have seencycles of booms and busts.
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So booms and busts are inherentwithin the capitalist system.
Because it's like going up allthe time is not possible.
Yeah, I mean, it just goes toshow that it's like delusional.
So uh yeah, I just had to pointthat out.
That it's it's the cycles ofbooms and busts are inherent in
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a system like this that's basedoff of constant exponential
growth and exploitation.
And just as crucially, what arethe risks and uncertainties to
keep in mind?
Early investors inworld-changing trends can see
outsized gains.
We've all heard the stories, thefolks who bought Microsoft or
Apple stock in the 1980s orAmazon in 1997 and held on
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became very wealthy as thosecompanies grew.
Fusion being such a fundamentalshift could mint the next
generation of big winners.
There may be new companies thatbecome the ExxonMobil of the
fusion age, dominating fusionpower plant construction or
operations.
See, that doesn't sound like agood thing to me.
The the next generation of bigwinners, quote unquote, sounds
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like a game of musical chairsthat should not exist.
Like we shouldn't organize oureconomies this way.
This is madness.
This is what I was talking aboutwith the snake oil salesman and
the exploitation that we can'tever get honesty and uh yeah,
that there could be existingcompanies that pivot into fusion
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and see their valuations surge.
For example, maybe a largeenergy company or defense
contractor that successfullydevelops fusion tech could see
its stock soar.
Think of companies in advancedenergy, tech, or aerospace that
are exploring fusionpartnerships, those could be
candidates.
The bottom line is if fusionfulfills its promise, the early
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stage investors and the rightfirms could see exponential
growth, much like early stageinvestors in the internet did.
For an investor, one angle ofopportunity is not just wild
growth, but also long-termsecurity.
If fusion becomes a mainstay in,say, 10 to 15 years, it could
explain a whole new set ofstable industries that pay
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dividends and are subject toless geopolitical price shocks
than oil and gas.
So that's kind of interesting.
Fusion needs to be proved atscale first, but it's a reason
some investors might start witha small position now and add
over time.
Now to the risk caveats, becauseno prudent discussion would
ignore these.
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Despite the breakthroughs,fusion is not a done deal.
There remains significantengineering challenges to go
from one off lab results to apower plant that runs reliably
year-round.
Which it's interesting howthat's the the barrier that they
always put up.
Well, like we have the results,but we don't have it at scale.
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But they won't ever let anybodyget to scale.
Building a device that canwithstand the extremes inside a
fusion reactor is non-trivial.
It's possible that some hurdleslike finding materials that long
last that last long inside thereactor could take longer to
overcome.
If it takes 20 plus years tocommercialize instead of 5 to
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10, early investments mightlanguish for a while or require
patience beyond what someinvestors have.
Even if fusion power plants workby the late 2020s, there's the
question of how quickly theywill be adopted.
The world has an existingmassive energy infrastructure.
Utilities and governments tendto move slowly.
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See, this is what I was talkingabout with the investors as
well, like the big globalinvestors, not the small
investors, because there's a bigdifference between those two.
And we see the global energyinfrastructure shifting towards
nuclear, and it's becoming moreand more rapid since I talked
about it, what, a year or twoago?
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It's when I first talked aboutthe banks.
Um, and I have something aboutthat coming up.
Um so let's get to the end here.
In conclusion, the Heliosproject presents an exciting
early investment opportunitywith potentially life-changing
upsides, but it must beapproached with the eyes open to
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risks.
Whitney Tilson is known as asavvy investor who has navigated
past crashes, so he urgesoptimism but also caution.
Investing in Helios, howinvestors can profit.
See, they're like constantlytrying to drum up money.
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This is like such a a scam, itfeels like it's it feels like a
scam.
Like all of these projects do.
Like, why should the taxpayerspay for this?
This is it's not even not justeven taxpayers, just like random
people giving away their money.
It's not even to like an actualproject.
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But after learning about theimmense promise of Amazon's
Helio project, the naturalquestion is how can I invest in
this?
There are several ways.
Investing in fusion-focusedcompanies, the most direct way
to invest in Helio's project isto invest in companies working
on fusion technology.
However, meeting many leadingfusion ventures like Helion,
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Commonwealth Fusion Systems,General Fusion are currently
private hubs not yet publiclytraded.
This means typical investorscan't buy their track their
stock on the open market.
Only venture capitalists andprivate equity firms can invest
there for now.
See, this part is is veryinteresting.
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So it's like only this privateum people in the know that have
the like authority to trade intothis stuff.
Isn't that interesting?
It's not publicly available,like pup regular people can't
pay into it.
But that other company that Ihad talked about earlier in the
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year, uh they had gone publicand they were asking for for
people's like investment.
So I don't know.
There's trade-offs to either toboth, and frankly, I I don't
don't have a preference betweenthe two.
I think that that something thisbig needs to be backed by the
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government to make sure it can'tfail and to do it actually the
right way, uh, and to actuallymake the cost low.
Because we're paying for itanyways.
A lot of this stuff is beingsubsidized through uh tax
dollars.
Same thing with AI.
We're already paying for it withour tax dollars, we're just
donating it to these ultra-richpeople.
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Like, we're basically giving ourmoney to Bezos.
And like, are we gonna get anyof that money back?
No, we're not.
Same thing with AI.
Fusion is the same way.
Um, and quantum.
Quantum, that's a good time tobring this up.
All of this stuff that we'retalking about, as far as quantum
power, quantum uh computing, andquantum GPS, quantum radar, uh,
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quantum internet, all of thesethings, like the quantum
technology, fusion, and AI areall massive uh in the scope of
how they change society, butthey're also massive in the fact
that they're like a black holeof money that goes into these
private groups that just vacuumup and like hoover up all the
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money.
And uh it's like we're justdonating it to them.
Well, it's more like they'restealing it because like we
don't even know that we'regiving it to them and we won't
get anything back.
I'm sure a lot of people thathear that we're subsidizing
power plants or something,they're like, Well, yeah, we're
going to uh have a lower utilitybill as a result of that.
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But no, that's not true,unfortunately.
Not unless the state can enforcethat.
Um, but we'll talk about that, Ithink, here in just a second.
Another approach is by thebackers.
Since tech giants like Alphabet,Google's parent company, Amazon,
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founded by Bezos and Microsoft,and oil companies like Chevron
have shown interest in fusion.
One might argue that owning someof these giants gives exposure
to fusion success without thesingle project risk.
So they're saying that like allof these companies are too big
to fail, so that's the reason weshould like give money to them
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so that they'll do it to Fusion.
Well, couldn't you say the samething about China and not just
give it to rich people, butactually like have it in
integrated into the economy andtry to drop the price rather
than raise the price and stealall the like poor people's
money?
I mean, I'm not saying that it'sperfect either in any system,
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there's no perfect system, but Ican clearly see that like giving
our money away to theseultra-rich people is not
working.
It's a joke.
This is like the Gilded Age ofRobber Barons.
This is like a new era of robberbarons.
That's exactly what this is.
So then this is more on how toinvest in it.
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And the reason I'm reading thisis because this part is actually
kind of good, and that it getsyou an idea of what people will
be investing in and like how themoney is going to be churning
with these um technologies andcorporations, and it would be
very interesting to compare thatin America versus again, let's
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say China, of how the companiesare in relation to the state,
because both China and Americaare giving these companies money
to do this stuff.
It's just the difference is inChina, they're trying to drop
the price to where it'sinexpensive, but in America, we
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want to raise the price so thatwe make more money, which
ultimately what becomes moreefficient?
A super high-priced power plantor a low-priced power plant.
And again, this affects allaspects of society.
So by dropping the price on thisone thing, you'll be dropping
the price on everything.
It has like a cascading effectof improving everybody's lives.
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And imagine not having to worryabout having to pay your power.
Like some people are paying awhole lease or a car payment or
another mortgage on power everysingle month, just in utilities,
and that could be eliminated towhere people would actually have
money to spend on themselves,but then these energy cabals
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would not have this money andthey wouldn't have the power
over us.
Also, remember that thepetrodollar is part of the
American dominance, which I'vetalked about before.
So fusion is also underminingthe petrodollar.
So this ultimately will probablytransition when we go into uh
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whatever cryptocurrency Trump orthe other people behind him uh
will do.
Which wasn't it, Palantir thatwas talking about stable coin.