June 4, 2025 • 27 mins
Consider this: Stress will likely surge higher when you are uncertain about an outcome compared to when you're faced with a certainly bad outcome. Sounds wild, right?! Think about the scenarios though... Would you rather be told you're going to lose your job next month or have your boss tell you that there's a 50-50 chance you'll lose it during the next month? In those 50-50 scenarios, we can get stuck in a cycling stress response and no clear idea of what to do next to alleviate it. At least if you know you're going to lose your job, you have a clear next step: start job hunting. That's what we're digging into in this episode. We'll explore different types of uncertainty (estimation uncertainty, irreducible uncertainty, and volatility), why we stress over the unknown, and how to navigate these experiences in everyday life.
Sources and Notes:
- Joy Lab Program: Take the next leap in your wellbeing journey with step-by-step practices to help you build and maintain the elements of joy in your life.
- de Berker, A., et al. (2016). Computations of uncertainty mediate acute stress responses in humans. Nat Commun 7, 10996. Access here.
- Pema Chödrön quote: " To be fully alive, fully human, and completely awake is to be continually thrown out of the nest. To live fully is to be always in no man's land, to experience each moment as completely new and fresh. To live is to be willing to die over and over again."
Please remember that this content is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended to provide medical advice and is not a replacement for advice and treatment from a medical professional. Please consult your doctor or other qualified health professional before beginning any diet change, supplement, or lifestyle program.
Please see our terms for more information.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:00):
Welcome to the Joy Lab podcast,where we help you uncover and
(00:03):
foster your most joyful self.
Your hosts, Dr. Henry Emmons and Dr.Aimee Prasek, bring you the ideal mix of
soulful and scientifically sound tools tospark your joy, even when it feels dark.
When you're ready to experiment withmore joy, combine this podcast with the
full Joy Lab program over at JoyLab.coach
(00:25):
Hello, I'm Henry Emmons andwelcome back to Joy Lab.
And I'm Aimee Prasek.
So, we are in our Element of Curiosity,and today we are talking about
uncertainty and anxiety, really.
Maybe more specifically how wemight struggle with uncertainty
(00:46):
and how that can ramp up anxiety.
So to get us started, I wanna talk aboutanother of my favorite scientific studies.
But to do it, we're going tokind of reimagine it as if
we're actually in the study.
So actual participants, this isresearch from Berker and colleagues.
(01:07):
I wanna change the methods abit just to like liven it up.
I think it's super lively without changinga thing, but we're gonna, we're gonna
get even more in depth in here so wecan really kinda get the main takeaways.
Read the full study if you wantthe more accurate details though.
Okay.
Let's imagine that we are sitting onthe ground comfortably, and I'm gonna
(01:28):
carry over what looks like a plank ofwood with four small buckets on it.
Each one is upside down.
The goal is for you to choose oneof the buckets and lift it up and
hopefully find nothing underneath it.
Because I'm going to placesnakes under some of the buckets.
(01:52):
Oh, great.
So I have a fear snake... snakes.
So we'll play this three times,or three rounds, and I'll let you
know how many of those four bucketswill have a snake under it before
we start, okay, before each round.
One more thing.
Imagine that I stick a big patchon your arm before we start.
(02:14):
And with that patch,I'm going to shock you
Oh.
through it whenever you pick up a bucketthat has a snake under it, so not only
do you get a snake, but you get a shock.
Just the snake alone isn't bad enough?
Is...
I love this research.
Anything with a shock just gets mejust like, yeah, per, I don't know
(02:34):
why researchers and, and shockingfolks... but it, it interests me.
So, and don't worry, thisis not a crazy shock.
This is more like a shock afteryou rub your socks along the
carpet and then you turn on alight switch, so it'll shock you.
It'll wake you up, but it won't hurt you.
Okay.
Ready?
Everyone?
Yeah.
(02:54):
All right.
Let's...
...yeah.
All right, I'm gonna walk over withthe plank of wood, let's imagine this,
four upside down buckets on it, andyou've got the shock patch on your arm.
For this first round, there is onesnake under one of these four buckets.
So just imagine how you feelas you look at the buckets and
(03:16):
try to decide which to pick.
Notice the sensations in your body,the thoughts going through your head.
There's one snake underone of these buckets.
Whatever you can notice, let'simagine that you pick an empty bucket.
No shock.
Great job.
(03:36):
Okay, round two, shake it off.
Okay, I'm gonna reset the plank andthe four buckets are upside down again.
Now this time there are twobuckets with a snake under.
So two of the four bucketshave a snake under them.
And imagine how you feel as youlook at the buckets and try to
decide which bucket to pick.
(04:00):
How do you feel in the situation?
What's going through your thoughts?
And then let's imagine thatyou pick an empty bucket.
No snake, no shock.
Shake it off.
I don't wanna freak anybody out.
Let's just go with a, an empty bucket.
(04:20):
All right.
Round three.
The four upside down buckets again,are ready for you to choose from.
Now, imagine three of the buckets, havea snake under them, and just imagine
how you feel as you look at the bucketsand try to decide which to pick.
How do you feel in that situation?
(04:41):
What are you thinking?
What thoughts come up?
And you choose a bucket andthere's no snake again, no shock.
Shake it off.
Okay, so I hope you were able tokind of get into this, in your mind.
Did you notice for you, which scenariodid you feel was the most stressful?
(05:04):
Henry, do you wanna justlike as you were doing this?
I thought the first one
Oh,
the most stressful and maybe 'cause it'sthe, was the, my first time imagining.
That's Yeah.
I thought,
a great point.
Come on.
I gotta, I gotta get it.
I gotta get it right.
I love that.
So maybe some of you agreed.
(05:25):
I think three snakes, there'sjust more snakes, freaks me out.
So for me,
instance, I felt moreresignation, I would say.
I'm not gonna choose a bucket.
Yeah.
So good point.
So yeah, that might, that mighthave been strong and it rose up.
So I'm gonna come back tothe study, kind of tie it in.
(05:47):
For this study, what was most stressfulfor these participants was that second
one when there were two snakes of four.
So, so it's when participants hadjust as much of a chance of finding
no snake or snake, so like a 50/50.
(06:08):
So I wanna get into this a littlebit more because this is, I
think this is so interesting.
Okay, so let's bring thisback to everyday life.
I just like get rid of thesnakes 'cause I'm still tense.
But we actually deal with these types ofsituations daily, just as I kind of noted
no snakes probably, or at least literally,but experiences with uncertainty and
(06:34):
really what I think of as two kinds or twokinds that are also noted in the research.
The first is situations where we canreduce uncertainty and our stress
by gaining more information, andthat's called estimation uncertainty.
So this is what was at play in thefirst and third rounds of the game.
(06:54):
In the first one I told youthere was only one snake.
So you could kind of calculateand think like, oh, well I got a
better chance of getting no snake,
you know, if only one of thefour, has a snake under it.
The third round with three snakes,you knew you had a pretty good chance
of getting a snake, and, and a shock.
(07:15):
So that's also estimation uncertainty.
A little calculation, a little figuring,and you can actually have something to
plan for that can reduce your uncertainty.
The second scenario, where there's a twoin four chance is random, it's 50/50.
(07:36):
I gave you no piece of informationthat could change that for you.
That is called irreducible uncertainty.
And again, this study showed thatit is more stressful than scenarios
with estimation uncertainty.
And that can seemcounterintuitive at first.
I know it did to me.
But you know, so the, the idea hereis that not knowing an outcome can be
(08:00):
worse from a stress perspective thanknowing a bad outcome is more likely.
Mm-hmm.
So why, why is this the case?
I think it's important to know that oursystem is trying to help us out, right?
Our system wants to make acalculation, good or bad.
We want to feel like we have some kindof idea of what might be coming ahead.
(08:27):
And how we can prepare for it.
When it comes to irreducibleuncertainty, our system stays amped up
sort of perpetually looking for moreinformation to help guide a next action.
And that can be stressfulif you're stuck there.
And when it comes to ourdaily lives, both are present.
(08:48):
Estimation and irreducible uncertainty,probably 50 50, maybe half the
situations we're in, we can makesome predictions that can help us
kind of reduce a little bit of thatuncertainty, we can make an educated,
sort of decision, an understanding.
And the other 50% are justrandom, maybe more, right?
(09:12):
Where we just have no ideawhich way it could go.
And with that in mind, it doesn'tmean that we need to be caught
in these perpetual stress cycles.
We can practice some skillsto be more aware of what
kind of uncertainty we're in.
And then we can use some strategiesto help us navigate out of
(09:34):
a stress cycle more quickly.
And, and we're focusing on that awarenessin this episode, I think a little bit
more today because it is essential.
It's like the prerequisite for thestrategies and we'll get into some
more strategies throughout the month,um, around this relationship of
uncertainty and anxiety and stress.
And some strategies that we can useto decrease the uncertainty or at
(09:56):
least decrease that stress activation.
So, Henry, do you wanna saymore about this phenomenon?
You know, like why uncertaintyand stress get wrapped up?
I do, but I, I also wannasay more about this study.
Oh my god, yes.
actual human beings in the study.
Am I, am I right?
Yes.
You know, I should have noted one detail.
Yes.
(10:16):
These are humans.
They were not real snakes.
the act,
know?
Did the hu the, the subjectsknow that they weren't real
the actual study is like a simulation.
It was done on a computer.
So, but probably, you know, probablylike Oregan Trail kind of graphics here.
So maybe not as scary as wewere imagining in our head.
But
Okay.
it's kind of the same thing, youknow, they're imagining this.
(10:37):
to, yeah.
Yeah.
And it's scary.
They were
doing it like us, except theyhad more visual detail to.
Exactly.
but they did have a shock pad onthem, so the shock was real for them,
that.
which just cracks me up.
I don't get it.
I love it.
Okay.
Well, so if I'm, if I'm hearing thisright, what they found is that it is
(11:02):
more stressful not knowing when youhave a 50/50 chance of uncovering a
snake than it, than it was if you hada, either a low chance or a high chance
Yes.
finding a snake.
Right.
Yeah.
I think that's fascinating actually.
And you know what it brings tomind to me is, is phenomenon called
(11:23):
anticipatory anxiety, which everybodyis familiar with 'cause we've all
experienced it.
Yeah.
And that is this phenomenon wherethe most anxiety provoking part of
an experience is before it actuallyhappens waiting for something to happen.
Yes.
(11:43):
You know, oftentimes that is worsethan when the thing you, you've
been dreading actually does happen.
Seems weird,
Yeah.
but, you know, it's a, it's a verycommon phenomenon that I am sure we've
all experienced at one time or another.
So I, I kind of wonder if that's relatedto this experiment where it is the
uncertainty before the event that's morestressful than the fearful event itself.
(12:10):
Or maybe uncertainty is more stressfulthan being pretty certain even that
something bad is about to happen.
Right.
Which again seems counterintuitive.
Yes.
So, I really love the way you framed it,Aimee, and I think that the researchers
framed it in a similar way that the stressof uncertainty is actually a good thing.
(12:35):
It's adaptive.
Yeah.
Because it activates our brain to do thesereally complex calculations in the moment.
The brain is kinda working inthe background try to guide us
to make the best possible choicein a, a series of bad choices.
(12:55):
So, Yeah.
if I read this correctly, folks who aremore sensitive to this, this type of
stress actually learned better than thosewho were less sensitive to it because
the, they were that sensitivity, you know,which does make you uncomfortable, but it
also is very motivating and it makes you
(13:17):
Yeah.
more attentive to what'shappening in the moment.
Yeah.
And as you know, Aimee, I love this wayof thinking about stress and anxiety
that they are meant to be adaptive,unless of course they go too far and
just kinda ramps us up all the way outof control, you know, beyond discomfort.
(13:40):
And we've said this I think severaltimes in previous podcasts, that
stress itself is not a bad thing.
Sometimes it's a verygood thing, up to a point.
It is built in for a reason, and I thinkin this case that the study is looking
at, it's a really good reason becausethe choice we make with the information
(14:01):
we have just help us to survive,you know, a series of bad options.
Yeah, I'm re-, I'm remembering this hikeI took in Arizona with a friend of mine.
And before we started the hike,she said, just look out for stuff.
'cause everything inthe desert can kill you,
(14:21):
which is great way to start a hike.
And so I was looking for everything,snakes, big bugs, and I found them all.
I had no, I didn't look upor see any of the hike, but I
found every concerning creature.
Which I think is, is kind ofwhat we're getting into here.
(14:42):
Like, that's great.
If you come with me on a hike inthe desert, I will keep you safe.
But if we're just hiking around my house,I don't need to look out for snakes,
scorpions, or other concerning creatures.
Right?
So when can we dial it back down and sortof have a little bit more specificity
around that alarm system or just know whenI walk out the house, okay I probably, no,
(15:06):
there's no snakes, there's no scorpions.
Maybe deer ticks, but,
Yeah,
can't see that.
which in the long runmight be, might be worse.
I know, right.
So anyway, I think this is so important.
This, yeah, the way you framed it,Henry, this adaptive evolutionary,
and as the researchers framed itas well, like we are not broken.
(15:29):
This is not a glitch in our system, butthe dial might be up too high, you know?
Are you looking for scorpions whenyou're just sitting at the park?
You know?
Yeah.
So,
Not
only is it not, is it not a glitch,it's a, it's, it's an advantage.
Yes.
If it doesn't get dialed up too much.
Right.
So we can adjust it.
(15:51):
We don't need to rejectit or make it go away.
We can work with these responses so thatthey aren't overactive or depleting us.
Yes, that's what we do here.
Let me add one morenegative layer to this.
'Cause that's my job, becausethat's, well, that's what I see.
(16:11):
Here's one more scorpion thatI wanna call out, and then you
can talk me down here, Henry.
But it's something called volatility.
So there was a reason why that patch wasshocking people and that I brought it
up when we were imagining this study.
Because when you were pickingup a bucket, and I shocked you,
you knew it was coming, right?
(16:32):
If you're gonna pick up a bucket andthere's a snake under it, you're like,
oh, a snake and I'm gonna get shocked.
You just knew that was happening.
Now, what if all of asudden I changed the rules?
What if I started shocking you sometimeswhen you found an empty bucket but
didn't tell you, and then maybe I juststarted shocking you sometimes when you
were sitting there because I wanted to.
(16:55):
So that's volatility.
I'm taking away stability, predictability.
How do you think that impacts stress?
Hmm.
It impacts it in a big wayand not in a very good way.
And I think this is really importantto call out because life is
uncertain and that can be hard.
(17:16):
That's what we're talking about now.
But when things are volatile on topof that, then it can make things
way worse if we're not aware of it.
You know, particularly if wehaven't practiced working with
uncertainty like we're doing now.
In the research volatility isoften thought of actually as
this third type of uncertainty.
So we've got estimation uncertainty,irreducible anxiety or uncertainty
(17:40):
rather, and then we've got volatility.
So it's a kind of uncertainty that makessense, but to me it almost feels deeper.
The kind of, it's this kind ofirreducible uncertainty almost
that just comes out of nowhere.
It kind of shocks you andshakes your stability.
And that's where we are in modernlife I think in a lot of ways we have
(18:02):
a lot of complexity in our lives.
Stuff we just don't have control over.
And it is to our advantage, those things,to have them be as stable as possible.
You know that they're not volatileand that's just not always the case.
Like take work for example.
There's lots of reasons why a businessmight close or we lose our jobs, stuff
(18:26):
we can't control, but, but that wecan kind of work with, whether it's
estimation or irreducible uncertainty.
We could kind of practice it.
But imagine that maybe a brand newboss and it's like the old boss's
kid who's a real jerk and had nothingto do with the company yesterday.
And he just comes in randomly andthen he fires a third of the people
(18:47):
there just off with their heads.
No reasoning, nothing thoughtful.
Just so he can attend Fyre Fest orsomething, and not manage so many people.
Like, it's absolutely...doesn't make any sense.
It comes out of nowhere.
That's volatility.
And it can be really hard tonavigate because it just, it takes
uncertainty up a level, right?
(19:08):
It's just like another layer ontop of our irreducible uncertainty.
Or even our estimation uncertainty.
So I think that's something we need topay attention to and we can prepare for.
We can practice the awareness andstrategies and we'll work on that as well.
Do you wanna say more there?
I think what you're talking about now,Aimee, is just so relevant to the time
(19:30):
that we're living through right now.
Yeah.
And I, I just hear this over and over fromthe clients who I see as well as virtually
everybody, everyone else I talk to.
you know, 'cause we're seeing thiskind of uncertainty and volatility play
out in the big picture of world events
.Yes.
(19:51):
I think it's just really challengingfolks resilience right now.
Yeah.
The volatility you described, whetherit's in the lab or the real world,
it can have such strong consequences.
I, I remember some of thefamous old studies on lab rats.
I'm sure you remember this, you'refamiliar with this, Aimee, where they
(20:12):
there were given shocks that were randomafter a some period of time, eventually
they'd fall into a state that was calledlearned helplessness, where it just felt,
you know, to the researchers that the,that they had kind of given up, there
was nothing they could do to changewhether or not they received a shock, and
so they just sort of you know, gave up
(20:36):
Yeah.
closed down, and that was one ofthe early models for depression.
You know, where there are peoplewho reach that point of feeling,
"What's the use? There's nothingI can do that changes things, so
why, why bother to keep trying?"
Hmm.
I don't think that's has held up as,you know, the model for depression.
But it is one way of,of thinking about it.
(20:56):
And I just want to add that in, inhumans living in the real world,
not true that there's no use, that
Yeah.
I can do, but it might seem to betrue and that can have the same
effect of kind of shutting us downas what, even if it, if it were,
were something that was more true.
(21:18):
Hmm.
I don't, I, I think we have talkeda little bit about kind of the
learned helplessness research.
We should do more of that because what'sso interesting is-- we will get into
this in a later episode-- but the learnedoptimism research kind of came out of
that as well, and applications there,which I just, I mean these terrible
studies that happen with these animals,this idea that, like you said, why
(21:42):
bother, I think is so interesting thatthat thought was a bit of a seed for
this new research with learned optimismthat we have something to say about
this and we can move out of that state.
Yeah.
That it wasn't really, it, itwasn't the end of the story learned
helplessness is not the end of the story.
Yeah.
Yeah.
So, "why bother?" That's the feeling.
(22:06):
I, I get that.
I, I think we've all been there andprobably even recently with being sort
of bombarded by all of this volatility.
And we can't change a lot of thosethings perhaps externally, but we have
something to say about the feeling kindof long way of me talking about the
learned optimism as well in here and whatwe're doing right now with working on
(22:28):
tolerating uncertainty, navigating it.
So I'll quote some wisdom herefrom Voltaire, I think to emphasize
this, he wrote, "Uncertainty isan uncomfortable position, but
certainty is an absurd one." Right?
I love that.
So yeah, we can't know it all.
(22:51):
We can't control it all.
We can't be a hundred percent certain.
That's like all, that's probably the onlythree things I know for sure in this life.
That's the first thing that wekind of need to start working with.
Being okay with those facts.
We can't know it all.
We can't control it all.
Can't be a hundred percent certain.
(23:12):
And knowing that we canhandle uncomfortable.
It's okay to feel uncomfortable.
Yeah.
And when we continue to practiceacceptance of uncertainty, then I
think we're more able to approach thesituation and determine what's going
on when this kind of stress rises up.
Is it estimation uncertainty?
(23:33):
Is it irreducible uncertainty?
Is it just volatility?
Is it all?
Is it everything at once?
We can just start to notice what'shappening and acknowledge that our
system, when it's feeling stressedlike this is just trying to help us get
a bit more clear on what to do next.
Yeah.
I think it's worth pointing out too thatthis, this research is what, what they're
(23:54):
looking at is something that is automatic.
It's a like a built-in reflex.
Yeah.
So, it's, in other words, you mightthink of it as being hardwired, and when
that's, when that's the case, it is therefor a reason it's for some good reason
because evolution has put it there.
It makes, it makes the personmore likely to survive.
(24:16):
Yeah.
So it's part of our biology,but we are not our biology.
We are to an extent, butwe're not only our biology.
Yeah.
We don't want to suppress thesenatural built-in mechanisms, but we
also don't want them to run our lives.
(24:37):
You know, they're there for, theyhave their purpose, but they're not.
They're to make the bigdecisions, let's say.
Yeah.
That's where consciousness comes in.
That's where mindful awareness comesin to give us a choice and if we can
use it well, we can decide, do I letthis high speed computer of a brain
(25:01):
keep calculating the risks, or do Istep aside from that and, and just
allow my stress system to stand down?
It sounds simplistic when Isay it that way, but it is
something we can learn to do.
It's amazing to me that we have thecapacity to let our brain be the finely
tuned, high level engine that it is,
(25:25):
Yeah.
automatically calculating, you know,what gives us the best odds here,
Yeah.
And that we also have the capacityto go to a higher level and to
be the one who can observe thisphenomenon with conscious intention.
And then make a wise decision.
(25:45):
Yes, you're factoring in all thevariables, but including variables,
you know what's best for me andwhat's best for those around me.
The thing is we don't haveto be one or the other.
We can be both.
Yeah, yeah.
We can be both.
We don't have to fight against ourselves.
(26:06):
we can navigate this.
So we'll, we'll talk more aboutthis, these strategies, how we
can be both this month as we diginto our element of curiosity even
more, and working with uncertainty.
So to close us, I wanna sharesome wisdom from Pema Chödrön.
I think it offers a bit of motivation,positive motivation here, and
(26:29):
some comfort to do this work.
Here's what she wrote:
" To be fully alive, fully human,and completely awake is to be
continually thrown out of the nest.
To live fully is to be always inno man's land, to experience each
moment as completely new and fresh.
(26:52):
To live is to be willing todie over and over again."
Thank you for listeningto the Joy Lab podcast.
If you enjoy today's show, visitJoyLab.coach to learn more
about the full Joy Lab program.
Be sure to rate and review us whereveryou listen to your favorite podcasts.
Please remember that thiscontent is for informational
(27:15):
and educational purposes only.
It is not intended to provide medicaladvice and is not a replacement for advice
and treatment from a medical professional.
Please consult your doctor orother qualified health professional
before beginning any diet change,supplement, or lifestyle program.
Please see our terms for more information.
Welcome to the Joy Lab podcast,where we help you uncover and
(00:03):
foster your most joyful self.
Your hosts, Dr. Henry Emmons and Dr.Aimee Prasek, bring you the ideal mix of
soulful and scientifically sound tools tospark your joy, even when it feels dark.
When you're ready to experiment withmore joy, combine this podcast with the
full Joy Lab program over at JoyLab.coach
(00:25):
Hello, I'm Henry Emmons andwelcome back to Joy Lab.
And I'm Aimee Prasek.
So, we are in our Element of Curiosity,and today we are talking about
uncertainty and anxiety, really.
Maybe more specifically how wemight struggle with uncertainty
(00:46):
and how that can ramp up anxiety.
So to get us started, I wanna talk aboutanother of my favorite scientific studies.
But to do it, we're going tokind of reimagine it as if
we're actually in the study.
So actual participants, this isresearch from Berker and colleagues.
(01:07):
I wanna change the methods abit just to like liven it up.
I think it's super lively without changinga thing, but we're gonna, we're gonna
get even more in depth in here so wecan really kinda get the main takeaways.
Read the full study if you wantthe more accurate details though.
Okay.
Let's imagine that we are sitting onthe ground comfortably, and I'm gonna
(01:28):
carry over what looks like a plank ofwood with four small buckets on it.
Each one is upside down.
The goal is for you to choose oneof the buckets and lift it up and
hopefully find nothing underneath it.
Because I'm going to placesnakes under some of the buckets.
(01:52):
Oh, great.
So I have a fear snake... snakes.
So we'll play this three times,or three rounds, and I'll let you
know how many of those four bucketswill have a snake under it before
we start, okay, before each round.
One more thing.
Imagine that I stick a big patchon your arm before we start.
(02:14):
And with that patch,I'm going to shock you
Oh.
through it whenever you pick up a bucketthat has a snake under it, so not only
do you get a snake, but you get a shock.
Just the snake alone isn't bad enough?
Is...
I love this research.
Anything with a shock just gets mejust like, yeah, per, I don't know
(02:34):
why researchers and, and shockingfolks... but it, it interests me.
So, and don't worry, thisis not a crazy shock.
This is more like a shock afteryou rub your socks along the
carpet and then you turn on alight switch, so it'll shock you.
It'll wake you up, but it won't hurt you.
Okay.
Ready?
Everyone?
Yeah.
(02:54):
All right.
Let's...
...yeah.
All right, I'm gonna walk over withthe plank of wood, let's imagine this,
four upside down buckets on it, andyou've got the shock patch on your arm.
For this first round, there is onesnake under one of these four buckets.
So just imagine how you feelas you look at the buckets and
(03:16):
try to decide which to pick.
Notice the sensations in your body,the thoughts going through your head.
There's one snake underone of these buckets.
Whatever you can notice, let'simagine that you pick an empty bucket.
No shock.
Great job.
(03:36):
Okay, round two, shake it off.
Okay, I'm gonna reset the plank andthe four buckets are upside down again.
Now this time there are twobuckets with a snake under.
So two of the four bucketshave a snake under them.
And imagine how you feel as youlook at the buckets and try to
decide which bucket to pick.
(04:00):
How do you feel in the situation?
What's going through your thoughts?
And then let's imagine thatyou pick an empty bucket.
No snake, no shock.
Shake it off.
I don't wanna freak anybody out.
Let's just go with a, an empty bucket.
(04:20):
All right.
Round three.
The four upside down buckets again,are ready for you to choose from.
Now, imagine three of the buckets, havea snake under them, and just imagine
how you feel as you look at the bucketsand try to decide which to pick.
How do you feel in that situation?
(04:41):
What are you thinking?
What thoughts come up?
And you choose a bucket andthere's no snake again, no shock.
Shake it off.
Okay, so I hope you were able tokind of get into this, in your mind.
Did you notice for you, which scenariodid you feel was the most stressful?
(05:04):
Henry, do you wanna justlike as you were doing this?
I thought the first one
Oh,
the most stressful and maybe 'cause it'sthe, was the, my first time imagining.
That's Yeah.
I thought,
a great point.
Come on.
I gotta, I gotta get it.
I gotta get it right.
I love that.
So maybe some of you agreed.
(05:25):
I think three snakes, there'sjust more snakes, freaks me out.
So for me,
instance, I felt moreresignation, I would say.
I'm not gonna choose a bucket.
Yeah.
So good point.
So yeah, that might, that mighthave been strong and it rose up.
So I'm gonna come back tothe study, kind of tie it in.
(05:47):
For this study, what was most stressfulfor these participants was that second
one when there were two snakes of four.
So, so it's when participants hadjust as much of a chance of finding
no snake or snake, so like a 50/50.
(06:08):
So I wanna get into this a littlebit more because this is, I
think this is so interesting.
Okay, so let's bring thisback to everyday life.
I just like get rid of thesnakes 'cause I'm still tense.
But we actually deal with these types ofsituations daily, just as I kind of noted
no snakes probably, or at least literally,but experiences with uncertainty and
(06:34):
really what I think of as two kinds or twokinds that are also noted in the research.
The first is situations where we canreduce uncertainty and our stress
by gaining more information, andthat's called estimation uncertainty.
So this is what was at play in thefirst and third rounds of the game.
(06:54):
In the first one I told youthere was only one snake.
So you could kind of calculateand think like, oh, well I got a
better chance of getting no snake,
you know, if only one of thefour, has a snake under it.
The third round with three snakes,you knew you had a pretty good chance
of getting a snake, and, and a shock.
(07:15):
So that's also estimation uncertainty.
A little calculation, a little figuring,and you can actually have something to
plan for that can reduce your uncertainty.
The second scenario, where there's a twoin four chance is random, it's 50/50.
(07:36):
I gave you no piece of informationthat could change that for you.
That is called irreducible uncertainty.
And again, this study showed thatit is more stressful than scenarios
with estimation uncertainty.
And that can seemcounterintuitive at first.
I know it did to me.
But you know, so the, the idea hereis that not knowing an outcome can be
(08:00):
worse from a stress perspective thanknowing a bad outcome is more likely.
Mm-hmm.
So why, why is this the case?
I think it's important to know that oursystem is trying to help us out, right?
Our system wants to make acalculation, good or bad.
We want to feel like we have some kindof idea of what might be coming ahead.
(08:27):
And how we can prepare for it.
When it comes to irreducibleuncertainty, our system stays amped up
sort of perpetually looking for moreinformation to help guide a next action.
And that can be stressfulif you're stuck there.
And when it comes to ourdaily lives, both are present.
(08:48):
Estimation and irreducible uncertainty,probably 50 50, maybe half the
situations we're in, we can makesome predictions that can help us
kind of reduce a little bit of thatuncertainty, we can make an educated,
sort of decision, an understanding.
And the other 50% are justrandom, maybe more, right?
(09:12):
Where we just have no ideawhich way it could go.
And with that in mind, it doesn'tmean that we need to be caught
in these perpetual stress cycles.
We can practice some skillsto be more aware of what
kind of uncertainty we're in.
And then we can use some strategiesto help us navigate out of
(09:34):
a stress cycle more quickly.
And, and we're focusing on that awarenessin this episode, I think a little bit
more today because it is essential.
It's like the prerequisite for thestrategies and we'll get into some
more strategies throughout the month,um, around this relationship of
uncertainty and anxiety and stress.
And some strategies that we can useto decrease the uncertainty or at
(09:56):
least decrease that stress activation.
So, Henry, do you wanna saymore about this phenomenon?
You know, like why uncertaintyand stress get wrapped up?
I do, but I, I also wannasay more about this study.
Oh my god, yes.
actual human beings in the study.
Am I, am I right?
Yes.
You know, I should have noted one detail.
Yes.
(10:16):
These are humans.
They were not real snakes.
the act,
know?
Did the hu the, the subjectsknow that they weren't real
the actual study is like a simulation.
It was done on a computer.
So, but probably, you know, probablylike Oregan Trail kind of graphics here.
So maybe not as scary as wewere imagining in our head.
But
Okay.
it's kind of the same thing, youknow, they're imagining this.
(10:37):
to, yeah.
Yeah.
And it's scary.
They were
doing it like us, except theyhad more visual detail to.
Exactly.
but they did have a shock pad onthem, so the shock was real for them,
that.
which just cracks me up.
I don't get it.
I love it.
Okay.
Well, so if I'm, if I'm hearing thisright, what they found is that it is
(11:02):
more stressful not knowing when youhave a 50/50 chance of uncovering a
snake than it, than it was if you hada, either a low chance or a high chance
Yes.
finding a snake.
Right.
Yeah.
I think that's fascinating actually.
And you know what it brings tomind to me is, is phenomenon called
(11:23):
anticipatory anxiety, which everybodyis familiar with 'cause we've all
experienced it.
Yeah.
And that is this phenomenon wherethe most anxiety provoking part of
an experience is before it actuallyhappens waiting for something to happen.
Yes.
(11:43):
You know, oftentimes that is worsethan when the thing you, you've
been dreading actually does happen.
Seems weird,
Yeah.
but, you know, it's a, it's a verycommon phenomenon that I am sure we've
all experienced at one time or another.
So I, I kind of wonder if that's relatedto this experiment where it is the
uncertainty before the event that's morestressful than the fearful event itself.
(12:10):
Or maybe uncertainty is more stressfulthan being pretty certain even that
something bad is about to happen.
Right.
Which again seems counterintuitive.
Yes.
So, I really love the way you framed it,Aimee, and I think that the researchers
framed it in a similar way that the stressof uncertainty is actually a good thing.
(12:35):
It's adaptive.
Yeah.
Because it activates our brain to do thesereally complex calculations in the moment.
The brain is kinda working inthe background try to guide us
to make the best possible choicein a, a series of bad choices.
(12:55):
So, Yeah.
if I read this correctly, folks who aremore sensitive to this, this type of
stress actually learned better than thosewho were less sensitive to it because
the, they were that sensitivity, you know,which does make you uncomfortable, but it
also is very motivating and it makes you
(13:17):
Yeah.
more attentive to what'shappening in the moment.
Yeah.
And as you know, Aimee, I love this wayof thinking about stress and anxiety
that they are meant to be adaptive,unless of course they go too far and
just kinda ramps us up all the way outof control, you know, beyond discomfort.
(13:40):
And we've said this I think severaltimes in previous podcasts, that
stress itself is not a bad thing.
Sometimes it's a verygood thing, up to a point.
It is built in for a reason, and I thinkin this case that the study is looking
at, it's a really good reason becausethe choice we make with the information
(14:01):
we have just help us to survive,you know, a series of bad options.
Yeah, I'm re-, I'm remembering this hikeI took in Arizona with a friend of mine.
And before we started the hike,she said, just look out for stuff.
'cause everything inthe desert can kill you,
(14:21):
which is great way to start a hike.
And so I was looking for everything,snakes, big bugs, and I found them all.
I had no, I didn't look upor see any of the hike, but I
found every concerning creature.
Which I think is, is kind ofwhat we're getting into here.
(14:42):
Like, that's great.
If you come with me on a hike inthe desert, I will keep you safe.
But if we're just hiking around my house,I don't need to look out for snakes,
scorpions, or other concerning creatures.
Right?
So when can we dial it back down and sortof have a little bit more specificity
around that alarm system or just know whenI walk out the house, okay I probably, no,
(15:06):
there's no snakes, there's no scorpions.
Maybe deer ticks, but,
Yeah,
can't see that.
which in the long runmight be, might be worse.
I know, right.
So anyway, I think this is so important.
This, yeah, the way you framed it,Henry, this adaptive evolutionary,
and as the researchers framed itas well, like we are not broken.
(15:29):
This is not a glitch in our system, butthe dial might be up too high, you know?
Are you looking for scorpions whenyou're just sitting at the park?
You know?
Yeah.
So,
Not
only is it not, is it not a glitch,it's a, it's, it's an advantage.
Yes.
If it doesn't get dialed up too much.
Right.
So we can adjust it.
(15:51):
We don't need to rejectit or make it go away.
We can work with these responses so thatthey aren't overactive or depleting us.
Yes, that's what we do here.
Let me add one morenegative layer to this.
'Cause that's my job, becausethat's, well, that's what I see.
(16:11):
Here's one more scorpion thatI wanna call out, and then you
can talk me down here, Henry.
But it's something called volatility.
So there was a reason why that patch wasshocking people and that I brought it
up when we were imagining this study.
Because when you were pickingup a bucket, and I shocked you,
you knew it was coming, right?
(16:32):
If you're gonna pick up a bucket andthere's a snake under it, you're like,
oh, a snake and I'm gonna get shocked.
You just knew that was happening.
Now, what if all of asudden I changed the rules?
What if I started shocking you sometimeswhen you found an empty bucket but
didn't tell you, and then maybe I juststarted shocking you sometimes when you
were sitting there because I wanted to.
(16:55):
So that's volatility.
I'm taking away stability, predictability.
How do you think that impacts stress?
Hmm.
It impacts it in a big wayand not in a very good way.
And I think this is really importantto call out because life is
uncertain and that can be hard.
(17:16):
That's what we're talking about now.
But when things are volatile on topof that, then it can make things
way worse if we're not aware of it.
You know, particularly if wehaven't practiced working with
uncertainty like we're doing now.
In the research volatility isoften thought of actually as
this third type of uncertainty.
So we've got estimation uncertainty,irreducible anxiety or uncertainty
(17:40):
rather, and then we've got volatility.
So it's a kind of uncertainty that makessense, but to me it almost feels deeper.
The kind of, it's this kind ofirreducible uncertainty almost
that just comes out of nowhere.
It kind of shocks you andshakes your stability.
And that's where we are in modernlife I think in a lot of ways we have
(18:02):
a lot of complexity in our lives.
Stuff we just don't have control over.
And it is to our advantage, those things,to have them be as stable as possible.
You know that they're not volatileand that's just not always the case.
Like take work for example.
There's lots of reasons why a businessmight close or we lose our jobs, stuff
(18:26):
we can't control, but, but that wecan kind of work with, whether it's
estimation or irreducible uncertainty.
We could kind of practice it.
But imagine that maybe a brand newboss and it's like the old boss's
kid who's a real jerk and had nothingto do with the company yesterday.
And he just comes in randomly andthen he fires a third of the people
(18:47):
there just off with their heads.
No reasoning, nothing thoughtful.
Just so he can attend Fyre Fest orsomething, and not manage so many people.
Like, it's absolutely...doesn't make any sense.
It comes out of nowhere.
That's volatility.
And it can be really hard tonavigate because it just, it takes
uncertainty up a level, right?
(19:08):
It's just like another layer ontop of our irreducible uncertainty.
Or even our estimation uncertainty.
So I think that's something we need topay attention to and we can prepare for.
We can practice the awareness andstrategies and we'll work on that as well.
Do you wanna say more there?
I think what you're talking about now,Aimee, is just so relevant to the time
(19:30):
that we're living through right now.
Yeah.
And I, I just hear this over and over fromthe clients who I see as well as virtually
everybody, everyone else I talk to.
you know, 'cause we're seeing thiskind of uncertainty and volatility play
out in the big picture of world events
.Yes.
(19:51):
I think it's just really challengingfolks resilience right now.
Yeah.
The volatility you described, whetherit's in the lab or the real world,
it can have such strong consequences.
I, I remember some of thefamous old studies on lab rats.
I'm sure you remember this, you'refamiliar with this, Aimee, where they
(20:12):
there were given shocks that were randomafter a some period of time, eventually
they'd fall into a state that was calledlearned helplessness, where it just felt,
you know, to the researchers that the,that they had kind of given up, there
was nothing they could do to changewhether or not they received a shock, and
so they just sort of you know, gave up
(20:36):
Yeah.
closed down, and that was one ofthe early models for depression.
You know, where there are peoplewho reach that point of feeling,
"What's the use? There's nothingI can do that changes things, so
why, why bother to keep trying?"
Hmm.
I don't think that's has held up as,you know, the model for depression.
But it is one way of,of thinking about it.
(20:56):
And I just want to add that in, inhumans living in the real world,
not true that there's no use, that
Yeah.
I can do, but it might seem to betrue and that can have the same
effect of kind of shutting us downas what, even if it, if it were,
were something that was more true.
(21:18):
Hmm.
I don't, I, I think we have talkeda little bit about kind of the
learned helplessness research.
We should do more of that because what'sso interesting is-- we will get into
this in a later episode-- but the learnedoptimism research kind of came out of
that as well, and applications there,which I just, I mean these terrible
studies that happen with these animals,this idea that, like you said, why
(21:42):
bother, I think is so interesting thatthat thought was a bit of a seed for
this new research with learned optimismthat we have something to say about
this and we can move out of that state.
Yeah.
That it wasn't really, it, itwasn't the end of the story learned
helplessness is not the end of the story.
Yeah.
Yeah.
So, "why bother?" That's the feeling.
(22:06):
I, I get that.
I, I think we've all been there andprobably even recently with being sort
of bombarded by all of this volatility.
And we can't change a lot of thosethings perhaps externally, but we have
something to say about the feeling kindof long way of me talking about the
learned optimism as well in here and whatwe're doing right now with working on
(22:28):
tolerating uncertainty, navigating it.
So I'll quote some wisdom herefrom Voltaire, I think to emphasize
this, he wrote, "Uncertainty isan uncomfortable position, but
certainty is an absurd one." Right?
I love that.
So yeah, we can't know it all.
(22:51):
We can't control it all.
We can't be a hundred percent certain.
That's like all, that's probably the onlythree things I know for sure in this life.
That's the first thing that wekind of need to start working with.
Being okay with those facts.
We can't know it all.
We can't control it all.
Can't be a hundred percent certain.
(23:12):
And knowing that we canhandle uncomfortable.
It's okay to feel uncomfortable.
Yeah.
And when we continue to practiceacceptance of uncertainty, then I
think we're more able to approach thesituation and determine what's going
on when this kind of stress rises up.
Is it estimation uncertainty?
(23:33):
Is it irreducible uncertainty?
Is it just volatility?
Is it all?
Is it everything at once?
We can just start to notice what'shappening and acknowledge that our
system, when it's feeling stressedlike this is just trying to help us get
a bit more clear on what to do next.
Yeah.
I think it's worth pointing out too thatthis, this research is what, what they're
(23:54):
looking at is something that is automatic.
It's a like a built-in reflex.
Yeah.
So, it's, in other words, you mightthink of it as being hardwired, and when
that's, when that's the case, it is therefor a reason it's for some good reason
because evolution has put it there.
It makes, it makes the personmore likely to survive.
(24:16):
Yeah.
So it's part of our biology,but we are not our biology.
We are to an extent, butwe're not only our biology.
Yeah.
We don't want to suppress thesenatural built-in mechanisms, but we
also don't want them to run our lives.
(24:37):
You know, they're there for, theyhave their purpose, but they're not.
They're to make the bigdecisions, let's say.
Yeah.
That's where consciousness comes in.
That's where mindful awareness comesin to give us a choice and if we can
use it well, we can decide, do I letthis high speed computer of a brain
(25:01):
keep calculating the risks, or do Istep aside from that and, and just
allow my stress system to stand down?
It sounds simplistic when Isay it that way, but it is
something we can learn to do.
It's amazing to me that we have thecapacity to let our brain be the finely
tuned, high level engine that it is,
(25:25):
Yeah.
automatically calculating, you know,what gives us the best odds here,
Yeah.
And that we also have the capacityto go to a higher level and to
be the one who can observe thisphenomenon with conscious intention.
And then make a wise decision.
(25:45):
Yes, you're factoring in all thevariables, but including variables,
you know what's best for me andwhat's best for those around me.
The thing is we don't haveto be one or the other.
We can be both.
Yeah, yeah.
We can be both.
We don't have to fight against ourselves.
(26:06):
we can navigate this.
So we'll, we'll talk more aboutthis, these strategies, how we
can be both this month as we diginto our element of curiosity even
more, and working with uncertainty.
So to close us, I wanna sharesome wisdom from Pema Chödrön.
I think it offers a bit of motivation,positive motivation here, and
(26:29):
some comfort to do this work.
Here's what she wrote:
" To be fully alive, fully human,and completely awake is to be
continually thrown out of the nest.
To live fully is to be always inno man's land, to experience each
moment as completely new and fresh.
(26:52):
To live is to be willing todie over and over again."
Thank you for listeningto the Joy Lab podcast.
If you enjoy today's show, visitJoyLab.coach to learn more
about the full Joy Lab program.
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Please remember that thiscontent is for informational
(27:15):
and educational purposes only.
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