September 22, 2019 • 15 mins
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
So one of the things I want to talk about today is
how systems evolve and develop.
And it started churning in myhead from a question that I get
a lot.
You know, someone asked me abouta play session and it wasn't the
first time is why do you trackdisparity?
(00:20):
And the answer that I wanted tosay immediately was I'm really
not sure.
To be honest with you that's thetruth.
I'm not really sure why I trackdisparity, but what I am sure
about is that I have a theoryabout something that I'm trying
to prove with this one littletidbit of information.
(00:44):
This one statistic that I trackand find interesting I think is
the key to it.
And I'm looking at strong sideto be honest with you, to find
out what statistic other thanjust looking at the game and
assigning relevance to whichside wins the most and which one
(01:08):
has two in a rows and the otherside doesn't have one in a rows,
which side is stronger byanother statistic.
And this investigative thoughtand idea is something that I
promote at beat the casino.
And my point about this is notnecessarily just this statistic,
but in everything I hear a lotof, I'm coming up with this
(01:31):
approach and it's not quiteready yet and I can't release it
or I can't tell anybody about itbecause it's not presented
right.
And, and this isn't, it isn't akind of the philosophy of the
forum.
(01:51):
We're not marketers to you onceyou're a member, we're not
marketing you a system to play.
We're marketing a think tank ofideas and some of those think
tanks if some of those ideas arecomplete.
I remember starting abouttalking about the two-high
(02:12):
system and Ellis developed thetwo-high system and it was
really clever.
I have to be honest with you.
And uh, everyone was kind ofasking for the release, asking
for the release, asking for therelease.
And he kept delaying it anddelaying it as I've done with
other things too.
And he said it wasn't ready yet.
It needs to be perfect.
(02:33):
And that's what system sellersdo.
They try to get it as close toperfect as they can, which of
course is an unattainable goal.
You know, you have to be, uh,satisfied with what you're given
at this particular point.
And that's when I started tolearn the philosophy of how to
run a a think tank that looks atwinning is, first of all,
(02:57):
there'll never be anythingthat's perfect.
And every time you look atsystems, there's always going to
be a tweak.
There's always going to besomething that it loses too.
But it's this presenting it tothe crowd that triggers everyone
else to think when you give asystem or an approach or an
idea, no matter how complete orhow incomplete, at least we have
(03:22):
something to work with.
And that's the idea of theforum.
That's the power of the forum.
So with my thing with trackingdisparity, I threw it out there
and hope that someone else wouldtake off with it because I'm not
trying to show you that.
Just use disparity and you'llfind the key to the kingdom.
(03:44):
Perhaps disparity could be usedwhen tracking natural switches.
I remember talking to some folksabout the latest thread that
Canada Bac um, very interestingstuff that he posted and very
insightful and a wonderfulcontributor to, he's talking
about his, he looks for naturalswitches and of course, you
(04:05):
know, the statistic is what hashappened before will maybe
perhaps something into disparitythat I mentioned can tie into
his natural approach or perhapsmaybe the disparity counts of
other events as in 5d could helphis disparity for naturals or
(04:25):
perhaps something in a X TBthat's coming up w ill help him
with disparity counts.
You see what I mean?
We're always looking forsomething that is the valid
statistic.
When W84IT for it mentioned the,uh, visual five d, if you think
about it for a second, he put itup and he showed you some
(04:47):
examples and, and he said, well,I don't really play it yet.
I'm just kind of looking intoit.
And it's that looking into itand that presenting it to the
group is what's valuable so thatmore eyes can look at it.
And Jimmy Baccarat when he didhis wonderful Twos program with
all the videos he made.
(05:08):
I mean, he was improvising atsome level and saying, look,
this is what I found out.
What do you guys see?
Take a look at this.
This is how I play this stuff.
And, and that sort of, wellhere, here's a couple ideas.
That sort of thing is what needsto be preserved all the time
here.
It's not just make a completesystem and give it to the, to
(05:29):
the, uh, to the group.
That's what you do when you'remarketing.
I'm not marketing to anyone.
The only one.
I'm the only thing I'm trying toconvince you of is that you
don't really, no one will beable to teach you how to play,
how to win.
I can't teach you that.
No one can teach you how to win.
(05:50):
You actually have to teachyourself.
And I learned this.
I think now understand I've beenplaying longer than anybody in
this forum.
I, I'm 63 or 62.
I can't remember.
Maybe I'm getting too old.
I've been playing since I'vebeen 21 since it was legal.
And probably before that I'vebeen playing cards before it was
illegal, I played baccarat.
But in any event, my point is,is that you teach yourself how
(06:13):
to play.
And you do this by incrementallylearning bits and pieces from
everybody and synthesizing it, Idon't want to say into your own
style, but into your own game.
And that's why some peoplestruggle with this game is I
have a lot of folks in the forumand I want you to learn this and
(06:36):
this is a hard lesson to learn.
Okay?
And some of them have been herefor years and they'll say, okay,
what do I do?
What do I, how do I do this?
We can't, I can't teach you orno one can teach you what to
think.
We have to teach you how tothink about the game and what
you're looking for in the game.
(06:56):
And you're going to have to findthe game that fits your strategy
or fits the style of how muchinformation you can assimilate
to then play in win and what Imean by that is some people
can't handle the wealth ofinformation that a game throws
at you and some people canhandle all sorts of information.
(07:19):
It's how much can you track andwhat can you keep in your head
and what can you identify in thegame that's going to make you a
winner.
That's the difference betweensomeone who can win and someone
who just goes around guessing.
If you can track 20 or 30things, look what's you're
looking for, whether you play a5d or Thai Bac or the Twos or
(07:43):
Time Before Last.
If you're a system player andyou're looking for games like
that, you're looking for whatworks in a game.
You're looking at all thestatistics and you're trying to
quantify what statistic worksand the more you can track and
the more you can understand andthe more you can make it part of
yourself that's important.
(08:04):
And you make it part ofyourself.
By this.
When I was younger, I startedtaking guitar lessons October
2nd, 1965 okay.
I incrementally learn how toplay guitar week over week,
month over month, year overyear.
And I found that this smallincremental improvement has an
(08:26):
effect until you can, you becomea really good player.
Okay?
It's the same thing I've learnedthat lesson hard is that week
over week you have toincrementally become a good
player and take bits and pieces.
So to that point, the mostimportant thing is yes, read all
the systems and people have togive us incomplete systems,
(08:47):
incomplete ideas, ideas, but,and even ideas that are terrible
or rehash of old, you know, atleast there's something to start
with.
So throw something out there,even if you've never done that.
But all these folks trying toput things together that are
complete, that's not necessary.
That isn't the purpose of thisgroup, okay?
(09:10):
But went back to my point isweek over week you practice and
you get better and you startdeveloping a sense about the
game.
So listen, the most importantthing you do is read everything
everyone says and talk topeople.
But come to practice, come tothe Monday night sessions where
everyone is talking about thegame and you have it not a time
(09:32):
to actually practice andcoalesce all the thoughts and
ideas from this forum into yourstrategy and learn to do that
almost automatically.
That's what some of the playersdo and they don't understand it.
Some of them they'll say, well Idon't know.
I just feel like it's this.
And if you watch the playerswho've been playing for years
(09:52):
and years, they really don'tfeel anything.
They actually are using astatistic that they're not quite
aware of, that they've actuallyseen in the game so many times
that it just triggers them to dosomething.
Okay now many, you know, manygreat players have come and gone
and one of the things I alwaysprotect in this forum as I'm
(10:12):
sure you understand, is thatthere's no dumb idea.
Ideas don't have to be complete.
We can talk about stuff thatthat's rehashed.
I remember couple years ago now,player came in and Nice Fella,
I, at least I thought he wasnice, but the forum didn't take
too off to him because he was inhere promoting, not promoting,
(10:33):
but just talking about how heplays on paper and using a up as
you lose progression and youknow, he'd show you 20 cards
where you know, he got up tobetting 32 and you know, still
won the game.
And of course everyone kind ofridiculed him.
Uh, when he would say stuff ofthis nature.
Of course, eventually if wewould have let him go, he
(10:57):
probably would've had some valuebecause he was participating in
the conversation, playing realgames and throwing them out
there for everyone to look at.
So, you know, even those typesof things have value because it
may trigger someone else tothink of something, you know.
And, and more recently, um, youknow, a couple of my, my good
(11:20):
friend, you know, Mike, who'ssince left and is mad at me, but
that's okay.
Um, when I mentioned 2-2-1 one,he took it upon himself to go
ahead and, and look at the aplus one system and um, as he
called it then and uh, of coursepeople who took offense to that
for some reason.
(11:42):
Um, and you know, I thought itwas like extremely viable and
I've played it and I've learnedsome things from playing plus
one that I think are valuableand I think many others have,
but immediately was tried to bequelled and it wasn't perfect
when he presented it, but it wasthe conversation of talking
about it and tweaking it andseeing what happens that made it
(12:06):
better and gave people realexperience.
I mean, he was a real playerplaying for real money in the
casino.
That was a great thing.
And posting about it yet people,some players, and we all know
who they were.
I don't have to mention them,didn't like this or thought they
knew everything and they triedto stop this discussion or left
(12:27):
because they wouldn't be a partof this.
I mean, that's silliness if youthink about it.
The whole thing is aboutdiscussing this stuff.
So now I'm hearing well my stuffisn't done.
I can't present it yet and youknow, they think it should be in
this format and that format andto present it to the group,
(12:48):
listen, present what you got.
That's my message to you.
I've got over 150 premium members' eyes looking at this
stuff.
That's what you want.
Even if it's imperfect, we're going t o make it perfect.
We're gonna try it.
We're gonna have players doingit.
We're g oing t o mention it inthe practice sessions.
(13:11):
Okay?
You're not responsible formaking a perfect approach.
Even if you've got an idea forstick.
A statistic that we never talkedabout.
When I talk about ties,everybody goes, where's your tie
thing?
I'm still thinking about it, butI threw it out there.
Here, I'm tracking these.
Let's someone else think aboutthem too and find your reality
(13:31):
when you go play, do you seeanything else?
That is what this is about.
We're not giving you a system togo play because you'll never be
a winner like that.
You have to teach yourselfincrementally week over week,
read what everyone has to say.
Come to practice.
No one can teach you how to win.
(13:52):
You have to teach yourself.
Start where you are and pick upif you're contributing, throw
out what you got.
Complete, incomplete, dumb,stupid will tell you.
Maybe you have a jewel ofbrilliance.
I, you know, just, just a jewelof brilliance.
Me and Kevin talk a lot and Iwas talking to him the other day
(14:12):
and you know, we, we have amillion ideas all the time, but
he said one to me that was justan absolute jewel of brilliance
and I thought I mentioned it toyou.
He said, you know, when you dothese practice sessions, why
don't you simply record thefirst 25 hands?
You know, now that should be soobvious to anyone, but I never
thought about that.
I always start off dealing thehands first, 10 or 15 of them.
(14:34):
He said, why don't you record 25of them first, give it to them
in advance and then play it.
What a jewel of brilliance thatwas to make the play sessions
better.
You know?
And it was just thisconversation about something
stupid that brought that about.
And so it's the same concept.
So I would encourage you,whatever you have, put it out
(14:56):
there for the group, whether youthink it's dumb, complete isn't
in the best format.
Put it out there.
We'll take a look at it.
We'll tweak it.
At least we have some place tostart.
That is what this forum is aboutand I want to protect that.
And if anyone tells you thatsomething shouldn't be posted
because it's incomplete, that'snot a good idea.
(15:18):
Okay?
Post it.
We want to see it.
If you put time and effort intodoing something, I'd really like
to see it.
And I know others would too.
All right.
This is Keith from beat Tuxedo.
Hope to talk to you soon.
So one of the things I want to talk about today is
how systems evolve and develop.
And it started churning in myhead from a question that I get
a lot.
You know, someone asked me abouta play session and it wasn't the
first time is why do you trackdisparity?
(00:20):
And the answer that I wanted tosay immediately was I'm really
not sure.
To be honest with you that's thetruth.
I'm not really sure why I trackdisparity, but what I am sure
about is that I have a theoryabout something that I'm trying
to prove with this one littletidbit of information.
(00:44):
This one statistic that I trackand find interesting I think is
the key to it.
And I'm looking at strong sideto be honest with you, to find
out what statistic other thanjust looking at the game and
assigning relevance to whichside wins the most and which one
(01:08):
has two in a rows and the otherside doesn't have one in a rows,
which side is stronger byanother statistic.
And this investigative thoughtand idea is something that I
promote at beat the casino.
And my point about this is notnecessarily just this statistic,
but in everything I hear a lotof, I'm coming up with this
(01:31):
approach and it's not quiteready yet and I can't release it
or I can't tell anybody about itbecause it's not presented
right.
And, and this isn't, it isn't akind of the philosophy of the
forum.
(01:51):
We're not marketers to you onceyou're a member, we're not
marketing you a system to play.
We're marketing a think tank ofideas and some of those think
tanks if some of those ideas arecomplete.
I remember starting abouttalking about the two-high
(02:12):
system and Ellis developed thetwo-high system and it was
really clever.
I have to be honest with you.
And uh, everyone was kind ofasking for the release, asking
for the release, asking for therelease.
And he kept delaying it anddelaying it as I've done with
other things too.
And he said it wasn't ready yet.
It needs to be perfect.
(02:33):
And that's what system sellersdo.
They try to get it as close toperfect as they can, which of
course is an unattainable goal.
You know, you have to be, uh,satisfied with what you're given
at this particular point.
And that's when I started tolearn the philosophy of how to
run a a think tank that looks atwinning is, first of all,
(02:57):
there'll never be anythingthat's perfect.
And every time you look atsystems, there's always going to
be a tweak.
There's always going to besomething that it loses too.
But it's this presenting it tothe crowd that triggers everyone
else to think when you give asystem or an approach or an
idea, no matter how complete orhow incomplete, at least we have
(03:22):
something to work with.
And that's the idea of theforum.
That's the power of the forum.
So with my thing with trackingdisparity, I threw it out there
and hope that someone else wouldtake off with it because I'm not
trying to show you that.
Just use disparity and you'llfind the key to the kingdom.
(03:44):
Perhaps disparity could be usedwhen tracking natural switches.
I remember talking to some folksabout the latest thread that
Canada Bac um, very interestingstuff that he posted and very
insightful and a wonderfulcontributor to, he's talking
about his, he looks for naturalswitches and of course, you
(04:05):
know, the statistic is what hashappened before will maybe
perhaps something into disparitythat I mentioned can tie into
his natural approach or perhapsmaybe the disparity counts of
other events as in 5d could helphis disparity for naturals or
(04:25):
perhaps something in a X TBthat's coming up w ill help him
with disparity counts.
You see what I mean?
We're always looking forsomething that is the valid
statistic.
When W84IT for it mentioned the,uh, visual five d, if you think
about it for a second, he put itup and he showed you some
(04:47):
examples and, and he said, well,I don't really play it yet.
I'm just kind of looking intoit.
And it's that looking into itand that presenting it to the
group is what's valuable so thatmore eyes can look at it.
And Jimmy Baccarat when he didhis wonderful Twos program with
all the videos he made.
(05:08):
I mean, he was improvising atsome level and saying, look,
this is what I found out.
What do you guys see?
Take a look at this.
This is how I play this stuff.
And, and that sort of, wellhere, here's a couple ideas.
That sort of thing is what needsto be preserved all the time
here.
It's not just make a completesystem and give it to the, to
(05:29):
the, uh, to the group.
That's what you do when you'remarketing.
I'm not marketing to anyone.
The only one.
I'm the only thing I'm trying toconvince you of is that you
don't really, no one will beable to teach you how to play,
how to win.
I can't teach you that.
No one can teach you how to win.
(05:50):
You actually have to teachyourself.
And I learned this.
I think now understand I've beenplaying longer than anybody in
this forum.
I, I'm 63 or 62.
I can't remember.
Maybe I'm getting too old.
I've been playing since I'vebeen 21 since it was legal.
And probably before that I'vebeen playing cards before it was
illegal, I played baccarat.
But in any event, my point is,is that you teach yourself how
(06:13):
to play.
And you do this by incrementallylearning bits and pieces from
everybody and synthesizing it, Idon't want to say into your own
style, but into your own game.
And that's why some peoplestruggle with this game is I
have a lot of folks in the forumand I want you to learn this and
(06:36):
this is a hard lesson to learn.
Okay?
And some of them have been herefor years and they'll say, okay,
what do I do?
What do I, how do I do this?
We can't, I can't teach you orno one can teach you what to
think.
We have to teach you how tothink about the game and what
you're looking for in the game.
(06:56):
And you're going to have to findthe game that fits your strategy
or fits the style of how muchinformation you can assimilate
to then play in win and what Imean by that is some people
can't handle the wealth ofinformation that a game throws
at you and some people canhandle all sorts of information.
(07:19):
It's how much can you track andwhat can you keep in your head
and what can you identify in thegame that's going to make you a
winner.
That's the difference betweensomeone who can win and someone
who just goes around guessing.
If you can track 20 or 30things, look what's you're
looking for, whether you play a5d or Thai Bac or the Twos or
(07:43):
Time Before Last.
If you're a system player andyou're looking for games like
that, you're looking for whatworks in a game.
You're looking at all thestatistics and you're trying to
quantify what statistic worksand the more you can track and
the more you can understand andthe more you can make it part of
yourself that's important.
(08:04):
And you make it part ofyourself.
By this.
When I was younger, I startedtaking guitar lessons October
2nd, 1965 okay.
I incrementally learn how toplay guitar week over week,
month over month, year overyear.
And I found that this smallincremental improvement has an
(08:26):
effect until you can, you becomea really good player.
Okay?
It's the same thing I've learnedthat lesson hard is that week
over week you have toincrementally become a good
player and take bits and pieces.
So to that point, the mostimportant thing is yes, read all
the systems and people have togive us incomplete systems,
(08:47):
incomplete ideas, ideas, but,and even ideas that are terrible
or rehash of old, you know, atleast there's something to start
with.
So throw something out there,even if you've never done that.
But all these folks trying toput things together that are
complete, that's not necessary.
That isn't the purpose of thisgroup, okay?
(09:10):
But went back to my point isweek over week you practice and
you get better and you startdeveloping a sense about the
game.
So listen, the most importantthing you do is read everything
everyone says and talk topeople.
But come to practice, come tothe Monday night sessions where
everyone is talking about thegame and you have it not a time
(09:32):
to actually practice andcoalesce all the thoughts and
ideas from this forum into yourstrategy and learn to do that
almost automatically.
That's what some of the playersdo and they don't understand it.
Some of them they'll say, well Idon't know.
I just feel like it's this.
And if you watch the playerswho've been playing for years
(09:52):
and years, they really don'tfeel anything.
They actually are using astatistic that they're not quite
aware of, that they've actuallyseen in the game so many times
that it just triggers them to dosomething.
Okay now many, you know, manygreat players have come and gone
and one of the things I alwaysprotect in this forum as I'm
(10:12):
sure you understand, is thatthere's no dumb idea.
Ideas don't have to be complete.
We can talk about stuff thatthat's rehashed.
I remember couple years ago now,player came in and Nice Fella,
I, at least I thought he wasnice, but the forum didn't take
too off to him because he was inhere promoting, not promoting,
(10:33):
but just talking about how heplays on paper and using a up as
you lose progression and youknow, he'd show you 20 cards
where you know, he got up tobetting 32 and you know, still
won the game.
And of course everyone kind ofridiculed him.
Uh, when he would say stuff ofthis nature.
Of course, eventually if wewould have let him go, he
(10:57):
probably would've had some valuebecause he was participating in
the conversation, playing realgames and throwing them out
there for everyone to look at.
So, you know, even those typesof things have value because it
may trigger someone else tothink of something, you know.
And, and more recently, um, youknow, a couple of my, my good
(11:20):
friend, you know, Mike, who'ssince left and is mad at me, but
that's okay.
Um, when I mentioned 2-2-1 one,he took it upon himself to go
ahead and, and look at the aplus one system and um, as he
called it then and uh, of coursepeople who took offense to that
for some reason.
(11:42):
Um, and you know, I thought itwas like extremely viable and
I've played it and I've learnedsome things from playing plus
one that I think are valuableand I think many others have,
but immediately was tried to bequelled and it wasn't perfect
when he presented it, but it wasthe conversation of talking
about it and tweaking it andseeing what happens that made it
(12:06):
better and gave people realexperience.
I mean, he was a real playerplaying for real money in the
casino.
That was a great thing.
And posting about it yet people,some players, and we all know
who they were.
I don't have to mention them,didn't like this or thought they
knew everything and they triedto stop this discussion or left
(12:27):
because they wouldn't be a partof this.
I mean, that's silliness if youthink about it.
The whole thing is aboutdiscussing this stuff.
So now I'm hearing well my stuffisn't done.
I can't present it yet and youknow, they think it should be in
this format and that format andto present it to the group,
(12:48):
listen, present what you got.
That's my message to you.
I've got over 150 premium members' eyes looking at this
stuff.
That's what you want.
Even if it's imperfect, we're going t o make it perfect.
We're gonna try it.
We're gonna have players doingit.
We're g oing t o mention it inthe practice sessions.
(13:11):
Okay?
You're not responsible formaking a perfect approach.
Even if you've got an idea forstick.
A statistic that we never talkedabout.
When I talk about ties,everybody goes, where's your tie
thing?
I'm still thinking about it, butI threw it out there.
Here, I'm tracking these.
Let's someone else think aboutthem too and find your reality
(13:31):
when you go play, do you seeanything else?
That is what this is about.
We're not giving you a system togo play because you'll never be
a winner like that.
You have to teach yourselfincrementally week over week,
read what everyone has to say.
Come to practice.
No one can teach you how to win.
(13:52):
You have to teach yourself.
Start where you are and pick upif you're contributing, throw
out what you got.
Complete, incomplete, dumb,stupid will tell you.
Maybe you have a jewel ofbrilliance.
I, you know, just, just a jewelof brilliance.
Me and Kevin talk a lot and Iwas talking to him the other day
(14:12):
and you know, we, we have amillion ideas all the time, but
he said one to me that was justan absolute jewel of brilliance
and I thought I mentioned it toyou.
He said, you know, when you dothese practice sessions, why
don't you simply record thefirst 25 hands?
You know, now that should be soobvious to anyone, but I never
thought about that.
I always start off dealing thehands first, 10 or 15 of them.
(14:34):
He said, why don't you record 25of them first, give it to them
in advance and then play it.
What a jewel of brilliance thatwas to make the play sessions
better.
You know?
And it was just thisconversation about something
stupid that brought that about.
And so it's the same concept.
So I would encourage you,whatever you have, put it out
(14:56):
there for the group, whether youthink it's dumb, complete isn't
in the best format.
Put it out there.
We'll take a look at it.
We'll tweak it.
At least we have some place tostart.
That is what this forum is aboutand I want to protect that.
And if anyone tells you thatsomething shouldn't be posted
because it's incomplete, that'snot a good idea.
(15:18):
Okay?
Post it.
We want to see it.
If you put time and effort intodoing something, I'd really like
to see it.
And I know others would too.
All right.
This is Keith from beat Tuxedo.
Hope to talk to you soon.
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