In this week's episode we unpack three reports about the labor market; the mixed results show an uptick in new job openings amid increasing initial weekly unemployment claims, though the unemployment rate remains steady at 4.2%. We also discuss the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report, which shows elevated levels of consumer and commercial uncertainty ahead of the June 18 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. As always, we analyze how this news is affecting the equity and fixed income markets.
Speakers:
Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy
George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer
Rajeev Sharma, Managing Director of Fixed Income
Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities
02:07 – The Fed’s Beige Book shows mixed growth across districts, and an increasing degree of policy and economic uncertainty.
02:59 – We introduce two reports about jobs and payrolls from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and another report from the Department of Labor on unemployment.
06:20 – Putting the news of the week in context of the overall uncertainty caused by the question of tariffs and trade policy.
07:24 – Equities appear to be on an upward trajectory calling the old “Sell in May and go away” adage into question.
10:05 – The Magnificent 7 companies’ stocks take diverging paths resulting from tariffs or noise from the Beltway.
12:10 – The bond market reacts to the nonfarm payroll news, while traders ease their expectations of future rate cuts.
13:27 – Treasury yields moved higher, though buyers remain standoffish amid the continuing debate on the U.S. fiscal deficit and tax policy.
15:27 – Credit spreads show an optimistic outlook, especially on corporate issuances.
16:31 – In a reversal of the historic norm, global central banks made moves to cut rates rather than following the U.S. Fed’s example.
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