April 26, 2024 • 29 mins
Think Philadelphia is the kingmaker in Pennsylvania's Democratic primaries? Think again. With a fresh analysis of recent election data, this episode shatters the illusion that a win in the City of Brotherly Love is the magic bullet for a statewide victory. We'll explore the real story behind voter turnout and distribution, revealing why focusing all your campaign firepower on Philly could be a strategic misstep. Discover the nuanced reality of Pennsylvania's political battleground, where statewide appeal trumps urban dominance and the implications it has for future races.
Gone are the days when traditional broadcast TV reigned supreme in the campaign world. This week, tap into the evolution of voter contact methods as we highlight the pivot towards digital platforms, targeted cable, and the enduring power of direct mail. As a veteran of selling voter contact services, I'll share insights into the effectiveness of different outreach tools and question the efficiency of Philly's famed 'street money' in the era of mail-in voting. Expect a candid take on data-driven strategies and why smart, targeted approaches could be the secret weapon for campaign success.
Wrap up the episode with a behind-the-scenes look at the Attorney General and Treasurer races, where winning Philadelphia voters didn't guarantee a ticket to statewide office. As we dissect the unexpected outcomes, you'll understand why geographic diversity and adaptability can outweigh the advantages of big-city endorsements. Join me and special guest Aaron McClellan as we discuss the actionable lessons from his campaign and why embracing analytics and innovative messaging is vital as we approach the November elections. It's a masterclass in strategic campaigning, tailored for those ready to conquer the complexities of Pennsylvania's vibrant political scene.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Hey, democrats, maybe it's time for us to all take a
collective deep breath and turnour eyes towards the wisdom and
sage words of Mr Rush Limbaugh.
What, hold on?
I'm going somewhere with this.
Welcome to the KeystoneReckoning podcast.
I'm your host, jesse White.
It is Friday, april 26, 2024.
We are still continuing ourbreakdown and analysis of this
(00:24):
past Tuesday's Democraticprimary election.
For more broad overview, pleasecheck out our last episode.
We're now going to starttalking about specific races and
trends and things of thatnature, and today we're going to
talk about a trend in thestatewide races that actually
were contested.
So we're talking about theprimaries for Attorney general,
(00:46):
auditor general and treasurerand we're going to look at those
.
And there's one thread thatseems to run through all of them
and it runs along with a pieceof conventional wisdom that,
from a campaign side, we have totalk about as Democrats,
because it really played itselfout in a very relevant way.
Now, I started this episode bysaying we should listen to Rush
(01:08):
Limbaugh.
Okay, obviously you know, notreally, but there is one thing
that he said that actuallyapplies here.
And, by the way, do you knowhow painful it is to go through
a Google search of Rush Limbaughquotes to find the one you're
looking for Like.
It's like I feel like I have totake seven showers now going
(01:31):
through all his quotes, but theone that is relevant here is
Rush Limbaugh said I rejectconventional wisdom, and I'm
sure he was trying to soundsmarter than everybody in the
room or whatever.
But there is, there's somethingto be taken from that trying to
sound smarter than everybody inthe room or whatever but
there's something to be takenfrom that Because, as we went
through the Democratic primary,I'm a political consultant it's
(01:52):
one of the hats I wear doing alot of different kinds of voter
contact with several differentkind of companies and
organizations.
So I was in contact with a lotof consultants, a lot of
strategists and a lot ofcampaigns going through the
primary, working on strategy andvoter contact, and the thing
(02:13):
that we always kept coming backto that seems to be this
conventional wisdom that justdoes not go away is that you
have to win Philadelphia to wina Democratic primary in
Pennsylvania.
You've got to win Philly, andthat is just where everybody
sticks.
And this primary made it veryclear that you don't.
(02:34):
You don't need to winPhiladelphia to win statewide,
and now we have the numbers toprove it.
Ok, so let's talk about it fora minute, this idea that winning
Philly is the end all be all ofa Democratic primary.
You know it's, quite frankly,it's kind of lazy analysis, and
(02:58):
10, 15, 20 years ago I could seeit a little more, because, for
a couple of reasons.
First of all, when you look atthe number of voters, you know,
in pure population density andeverything, obviously
Philadelphia is the the most,the richest trove of votes per
square mile that you're going tofind in Pennsylvania.
(03:19):
Right, the city'soverwhelmingly Democratic.
It's really a turnout game.
Right, it's a motivation game.
It's a turnout game Justgetting those.
You know, like every politicalcampaign since the dawn of time,
since, you know, 1776, has saidif we could just get Philly to
turn out and vote we'd be greatstatewide.
(03:40):
Right, every presidentialcampaign has said that.
Every you know statewide Senaterace has said that all this,
all the state, you knowstatewide judicial, statewide
row offices, if we could justget Philly to turn out, we'll
win this cycle.
(04:09):
Because there wasn't reallyanything, any major
Philly-centric races for folksto turn out for, for example,
the congressional districts thatare all that include
Philadelphia.
There were no serious primariesthere.
Dwight Evans had a tokenopposition but it was minor
right, he was never in anydanger.
Those seats were all safe.
There were no major stateSenate primaries out there,
(04:30):
things where there would bepeople on the ground working a
field program to get people outto the polls for each side,
which would then drive upturnout across the board, or you
would have more media spendingthere.
Right, you didn't have any ofthat and you often don't have
that.
And it's this weird thingbecause you know, in Philly the
primary is the general right.
(04:51):
That is the election in Philly.
Now, statewide it's a muchbigger deal and turnout efforts
and the money and the effortsthat would need to be spent to
turn out Philly in the generalare obviously crucially
important right In a generalelection because you need to run
up the totals in places likePhilly.
Well, there's really no placelike Philly.
You need to run up the total inPhilly to offset a lot.
(05:15):
You know a lot of the other bigred parts of the state, but
that's not what we're talkingabout here.
We're talking about aDemocratic primary and in a
Democratic primary, this timearound it was a low turnout
primary.
Across the board turnout lessthan 30%.
Total Democratic votes castwere 1,015,000.
(05:36):
Of those, the votes cast inPhiladelphia were 150,000.
14.7% of the Democratic votecame from Philadelphia.
Now, granted, that's notnothing, right?
150,000 votes is no joke.
If I'm running statewide, Iwant those votes Absolutely.
(05:58):
But and this is the part we needto look at there are a couple
of factors here.
First is, when you vote in aprimary, your county is next to
your name, right?
So when people went to votethis time, for example for we'll
use Auditor General becauseit's the only one it's one that
(06:19):
had a Philly candidate.
It's the only one, or it's onethat had a Philly candidate, and
so it was Malcolm Kenyatta,philadelphia, mark Pinsley,
lehigh.
Okay, the general thought thereis people vote geography, and I
can tell you, being from WesternPennsylvania, I'll be totally
honest.
You know, from Washington,allegheny County, all things
being equal, you usually weren'tgoing to vote for the candidate
(06:41):
from Philly.
We're all kind of parochial inthat way, right, we're going to
vote for the people that livenear us.
I'm not saying it's good, I'mnot saying it's smart, but it's
what people do, right?
Oh, I live in Washington County, you live in Allegheny County,
if I don't know any of the othercandidates, and that's the
other thing.
These were relatively lowinformation races.
(07:02):
People didn't know a lot aboutthese candidates were relatively
low information races, peopledidn't know a lot about these
candidates.
So when they go in to vote theysaw name and county, that's it.
So what can you really pullfrom that?
You can figure out wherethey're from and you know from
their name you can probablyfigure out some ethnicity and
gender.
Okay, that's it, and that's ifyou take a second and study it.
(07:24):
So then from there people couldgo in.
Obviously they're like oh,philly, much more liberal, you
know, uh, they're from, you'refrom Western PA, you're, or
Central PA, you're probably moreconservative.
Again, conventional wisdom,right?
We, we think we know thesethings and there might be some
of it may be accurate, but it'scertainly not all accurate.
It's not all you know.
It's nothing you can really sayfor certain.
(07:44):
So there's that part of it.
So that's part of it.
We have this big, this big chunkof votes in Philadelphia and I
would argue that Philly isunique.
It's unique of anywhere in thestate for a lot of different
reasons, and that's not bad.
I want to be clear.
You know I'm a Pittsburghsports fan, so I usually don't
have much good to say aboutPhilly in general.
(08:05):
It's one of my least favoriteplaces on the planet to drive,
as borne out when we were at aPhillies-Pirates game a couple
of weeks ago, but OK.
But from a pure Democraticpolitics point of view,
obviously Philly's criticallyimportant in Pennsylvania and it
offsets a lot of.
There's a lot of good thatcomes out of Philly that offsets
a lot of bad going on in otherparts of the state.
(08:26):
So the key is then being able,in a primary, to harness those
votes, and it's very difficultand a lot of it has to do with
methodology, and if you've neverworked on a larger campaign
that would like encompassstatewide or Philly and other
areas, you really don'tunderstand the different
strategies that are in play.
Okay, so one thing is you knowwe talk about different voter
(08:50):
contact methods, and I thinkthat's really what we're coming
down to here is how do we talkto voters before an election?
And nowadays you know I'm a bigbeliever, I've always been a
big believer in you.
You can now, using technology,we can micro target voters right
.
I can use data to know how toget a hold of you Email, text,
(09:11):
phone call, I can knock on yourdoor.
I can do all these things andthe technology is really amazing
, and we'll talk a lot betweennow and November about voter
contact methods, of what works,and I've got a great episode
coming up, uh, called mean textsfrom this primary.
That's going to be hilarious,um, but there's all these
different methods and there's noone way.
(09:31):
That's.
It's one of those things whereI can't necessarily tell you the
best way to, but I could tellyou the worst way and
unfortunately, a lot of theworst ways come from Philly in
terms of how people try tocontact and interact with voters
and turn them out.
Right, there's persuade them tosupport you, and then there's
(09:52):
persuade them to participate,which in a primary you know was
going to be a low turnoutprimary, super important, right?
Okay, you've met me.
You agree with me?
Fantastic, how do we get yourbutt to the polls?
It's a two-part process and whenyou're talking about statewide,
the amount of money it takes toeffectively communicate with
voters on such a large scale isa huge problem, right?
(10:14):
Nobody has very few candidateshave the kind of money to do
that and almost nobody.
The only statewide candidatethat's going to have the money
to do that on the Democraticside this year is Bob Casey.
That's it, that's the list, andobviously President Biden, but
a Pennsylvania person runningstatewide.
The only one that'll haveenough money to do this truly
the right way is Bob Casey.
(10:35):
So what are your options?
You can go up on TV broadcastTV cost a fortune, very
expensive.
Your options, right.
You can go up on TV broadcastTV cost a fortune, very
expensive In Philly mediamarkets the most expensive in
the state.
You can also go up on cable.
You can go up on what they callconnected TV, which is, you
know, ways to get out onto withstreaming.
Now I would argue that TV isless effective than ever.
It's effective, but you know,now you have people that only
(10:57):
watch streaming services.
Right, you have all the cordcutters.
You have all these.
You know it's much morefragmented than it ever used to
be.
So it's a challenge Used to be,you save, you raise a bunch of
money.
You went up on TV Cable if youhad to broadcast, if you could
afford it, and that was it rightFor, like you know, the mass
media.
But now there are so manydifferent options.
(11:22):
So you know.
Then you have direct mail and Idid get some direct mail for
some statewide, this primary.
I do direct mail.
Direct mail is very expensive,you know, winning a statewide
race with direct mail is verychallenging, because direct mail
, like all advertising, relieson repetition and it's not cheap
.
Then you get into digital right, which is you're seeing it, you
know um seeing it, you know onstreaming, you know on youtube,
(11:42):
but also, uh, social media,primarily facebook, stuff like
that uh can be very effective,because now we're getting into
the things that can be targetedat cost.
Right, you can, you can targetthem in a cost-effective way.
You're still not going to hiteverybody, but if you've got a
good list, you can hit.
You know 60 70% of your votersthat way, and the hits are
(12:04):
relatively cheap.
Then you get into robocalls andtexting as a disclaimer, one of
the things I sell theseservices to campaigns and
candidates, and so that issomething I'm very well versed
in.
I also work in the AI space,which is another conversation
we'll be having.
So there's a lot of differentways, but here's my point.
(12:25):
In Philly, now, you have thisother thing, right?
So those voter contact methodsare like uniform across the
board, right, they work prettymuch at all time zones.
Once you get into Philly,though, there's the ward system,
(12:53):
the ward leaders right wherethe Democratic Party, you know,
has their elected ward leaders,and campaigns and outside groups
to go around that system to getto the voters directly so that
they don't need to ask thecommittee or the world leaders
who should I vote for.
And also, you know the days ofpatronage are gone right, so
(13:16):
it's not like it used to be, butwhat they will do in Philly,
and they used to listen.
I've had to do this in places inthe past in Allegheny County
and places like that.
It happened and still happens,but you know the phrase street
(13:38):
money to give cash to whoeverthe ward leaders, whoever it's
going to be, to then distributeto people to stand at the polls
and hand out literature or dowhatever.
And campaigns this time aroundfelt a lot of pressure to invest
in.
You know they could say aturnout program or whatever, but
(14:00):
basically it was give us cashand we will get you votes.
That's what it is and Ipersonally to me, I think you
might be more effective takingyour money, putting it in a pile
, lighting it on fire andoffering people a nice you know,
to be able to sit by the fireand warm their hands as a way to
get their vote as a moreeffective method.
(14:21):
And this is, by the way, comingfrom what I've seen, and this
isn't just a Philly thing.
I want to be clear.
I'm not just.
This is not Philly centric.
But when you give money forpeople to be at the polls unless
they are someone who knowseverybody there those people are
few and far between and they'reusually the kind of people that
are going to do it for freebecause they want to volunteer.
But if you're paying someone tobe there, they're either going
(14:41):
to show up and just eat and sitand talk and not talk to voters,
or they're going to justbasically hand stuff to people
that people don't want.
And the other thing is we arenow in a position where
Democratic voters, especially,don't even go to the polls
anymore because we don't vote bymail.
So like 40% of the voters thatyou need to get aren't even
showing up at the polls becausethey've already voted.
It's a very ineffective, maybeone of the most ineffective
(15:05):
methods of spending yourcampaign resources that you
could possibly imagine in termsof voter contact.
There are a lot of other badways.
There's some.
We're going to tell some storiesout of the campaign finance
reports this time around, madefinance reports this time around
.
But so how do you get Philly?
And you know, and we again, wefall into this conventional
(15:26):
wisdom.
I'm a candidate.
I've got someone telling methat I need to put this money
into Philly.
Spoiler alert it's someone fromPhilly, right, wouldn't be
shocked if there's a finder'sfee involved.
We've all got to make money andyou know.
But you're literally justpouring money into a bucket and
hoping that you get somethingout of it.
There's no way to quantify it.
There's no way to quantify whatyou get from that, whereas if
(15:50):
I'm emailing, calling, texting,knocking, I have data coming
back, or at least I know themessage is delivered to the
voter.
But that's Philly.
And we always fall into thistrap of we've got to Somehow.
Philly is different, right, andwe always fall into this trap
of we've got to somehow feelhe's different.
And what this election taught uswas that the two in the two
truly contested races attorneygeneral and treasurer the
(16:11):
candidate that won Philadelphialost the election.
I'm going to repeat that thecandidate who won Philadelphia
lost the election.
So, and remember that Anytimesomebody is telling you this is
how it is, you have to winPhilly, you have to win Philly.
No, you really don't.
(16:32):
And I would argue that ifyou're not from Philly even if
you are from Philly, right, youwould take those votes, bank
them and go everywhere else.
If you're not from Philly andyou're running against someone
from Philly, even if you arefrom Philly, right, you would
take those votes, bank them andgo everywhere else.
If you're not from Philly andyou're running against someone
from Philly, acknowledge they'regoing to you're.
You know, I had a situation thistime where a candidate was
being asked to put money in likemultiple camps were being asked
to put money into a Phillyelection day program and my
(16:55):
question to the candidate waswait a minute, if they're taking
your money and they're takingyour opponent's money, what good
does that do?
And they were like we just wantto cancel out what You've
basically just given the peopleyou're giving the money to an
out to not deliver at all,because you're asking that.
You're basically saying hereI'm going to give you money to
offset their money, to make sureyou don't do anything for them.
(17:16):
What Makes no sense, anythingfor them, what Makes no sense.
And there are campaigns and wewill talk about it when the
reports come out that largepercentages of their voter
contact budget went to stufflike that instead of actual
voter contact that wasquantifiable and qualitative and
(17:38):
that it was high quality andthey could have talked to a hell
of a lot more voters a lot moreeffectively for a lot less
money.
And they didn't, and theresults will bear that out.
So let's look very quickly atthese couple of contests and to
give you an idea, so let's startwith the Attorney General.
The statewide winner was EugeneDiPasquale, who had geography on
(18:01):
his side.
He lives in Allegheny Countynow he's from there.
He's from Pittsburgh originally, but he was a state rep from
York County for a lot of years.
I was in there with him, sothat's where his political
history is from.
His political history is from,and then as a two-term auditor
(18:26):
general, he was well-known,obviously in the other part of
central PA, because this is acompany town and everybody just
knew who he was.
So he didn't need Philly.
And if you look at the heat mapof where he won, he basically
won everything but Philly.
He won everything west ofHarrisburg and he won it handily
.
Okay.
So let's look at his overall.
He got 368,000 votes, which was35% of the vote in a
(18:47):
five-candidate field Okay.
So he came in first In Philly.
Sorry, I have to click it InPhilly, oops, that's Montgomery
County, is not Philly.
In Philly, di Pasquale got 8.3%of the vote.
He got 13,500 out of 150,000.
(19:09):
He did the worst by almost half.
The next highest performingcandidate was Joe Kahn with 15%.
Fourth place candidate prettymuch doubled the fifth place
candidate Okay.
Deepest quality gets crushed inPhiladelphia.
Wins handily everywhere elsewins the primary.
(19:33):
Now, the inverse of that KeiraBradford Gray, philadelphia.
She was a Philadelphia publicdefender.
Only woman in the race.
Only woman.
Only person of color in therace Okay, transgender only
woman in the race.
Only woman.
Only person of color in therace.
There should have been astatewide appeal there to
Democratic primary voters whowant to vote for women.
And these were all fivequalified candidates.
(19:54):
This is a great race to look atbecause all five candidates are
qualified.
So you can't look at one and belike, yeah, but they were a bad
candidate or whatever.
They all had their strengthsand I think that had something
to do with there not being anendorsement in the race.
I think people recognize that.
So Kiera Bradford Gray winsPhilly handily 36%, basically
(20:14):
the same amount that DeepaSqually wins the state by.
She wins Philly with 36%, 57,almost 58,000 votes.
The next closest was JaredSolomon, with only 22% of the
vote.
She beat him by over 22,000votes in Philly right.
So she won Philly handily right.
So she is clearly you knowshe's running for mayor at some
(20:36):
point or running for citycouncil or whatever.
I mean she did very well andespecially because the other
three candidates Joe Kahn, jackStolmeyer and Jared Solomon all
Jared Solomon, they're allPhilly adjacent, they're all
Eastern PA.
So she did very well.
Now, 36% in Philly.
How did she do statewide?
Well, you ask.
(20:56):
She got 15% of the votesstatewide.
She came in second to last.
She got over a third of hervotes statewide out of Philly.
She disproportionately wonPhilly and she came in fourth
out of five and she was onlyavoided last place by about two
points.
So she didn't need Philly towin and we'll look at the
(21:17):
reports.
If she did put money intoPhilly, that's insane, because
she just didn't need it Rightand she clearly did it
everywhere else.
She had a great profile, couldhave done a lot better in a lot
of places, didn't happen.
All right, let's look brieflythen at Treasure the other one I
want to skip Auditor Generalfor a massive amount of reasons,
mainly because it was not acompetitive race.
(21:39):
As the numbers bear out,malcolm Kenyatta was from Philly
.
I mean, he won.
To give you an idea, he won 65%of the vote statewide in Philly
he won 89% of the vote, but itdidn't matter.
The Pensley campaign didn't doenough outside of Philly to even
put a dent into that.
(21:59):
I think that the campaignfinance reports will show that
they probably should have.
All right, let's talk Treasurerfor a second, and this will be
the last one.
Okay, this is a great example.
Ryan Bizarro, democratic,endorsed statewide.
We've talked about this.
He had all the endorsements.
Whatever, he wins Philadelphiahandily, 62% to 38% over Aaron
(22:22):
McClellan.
He has 86,000, almost 87,000votes to her 54,000.
So he almost he hasn't quite,but he's like didn't double her
up, but he like one and a halfder up in Philly, right, and, by
the way, this is a good testbecause he's from Erie Bizarre
is from Erie McClellan's, fromAllegheny County.
So there was nobody west of,like you know, venango.
(22:44):
There's going to be east ofVenango on the ballot, right,
like that was it.
This was a western PA thing, soPhilly was fertile ground for
everybody.
Okay, bizarro does great thereAlmost 62%.
But what did he do?
Statewide, he loses not even46% of the vote.
He loses McClellan 54-48.
(23:05):
So in a race where there was noPhilly candidate and we'll see
we know he was up on TV and I'mcurious to see where.
But if he did so, yes, he wonPhilly, but did he overspend in
Philly at the expense of otherplaces?
I don't know.
We're going to find out out.
I'd be willing to bet that hedid.
(23:25):
I would be, and I know I lookedat some.
You know he out raised bizarre.
Out raised mcclellan, I think,like five to one.
Don't quote me on that, butit's somewhere in that
neighborhood.
So you have the moneycomparatively, um, and I know
what mcclellan did for somevoter contact.
It's been out there and I willjust close.
It was involved in some of theoutreach that she did.
(23:46):
I'm not part of the campaign, Iwant to be clear about that,
but we did some vendor work forher race late.
So I know what they did anddidn't do.
So I'm speaking from someserious knowledge here.
I know exactly what was saidand who was said to at least
part of it and it clearly thestrategy and I'm not considering
(24:08):
it was all mine, but Icontributed to it, that part of
it, that strategy worked.
So the point is, you know theshow Heroes.
I never really watched it but Iwas like I knew it right.
But if you remember that showHeroes, for a while there was
that phrase save the cheerleader, save the world.
I don't know what it means, butI know everybody was saying it
(24:30):
and it just whenever I wasthinking about all this
conventionalism stuff.
It's like win Philly, win thestate, win Philly, win the
nomination.
No, no, that's just notaccurate.
I'm not saying it's neveraccurate.
There are times where that canvery easily be a very smart
strategy for a campaign to take.
But campaigns are not monolithic.
(24:50):
Philadelphia is not monolithic.
I think that's actually prettyoffensive to suggest that Philly
is this monolithic.
It's a massive city, countywith an incredible amount of
diversity racial, ethnic,cultural, socioeconomic.
I mean it is maybe the leastmonolithic voting bloc in the
state and I think it's done adisservice that people in the
(25:15):
candidate world and theconsultant world just treat it
like it's just this big bluebucket and it's not.
But to assume that that is thebeginning and the end of an
election statewide is just notaccurate.
And now we have the numbers toprove it.
There's a lot more of theseresults are going to tell us,
but that was the thing.
When I looked at these onelection night and the next day
(25:38):
that was the first thing I wentto because I'd been hearing
about it.
I've been hearing you hearabout it every year, but this
this year especially.
Everybody's strategy was builtaround Philly and the cost and
the uncertainty of voter contactto Philly voters as compared to
the ways you could talk tovoters all over the state and
(26:02):
the fact that Philly willgenerally vote for Philly.
Other areas will tend to notvote for Philly and those are
kind of burned in biases, youknow, geographical biases that
are hard to overcome notimpossible, but they're hard to.
But why?
Why go against the grain whenyou don't have to?
So there are huge lessons to betaken from these races that
(26:25):
need to become part of theconversation in lieu of or in
replacement of the conventionalwisdom, because the people that
look at this and actuallyunderstand it will be able to
take this information and use itnext time to actually be
successful, because they'llactually know what works and
what doesn't work, or they'llknow what doesn't work, know
what works and what doesn't work, or they'll know what doesn't
(26:46):
work.
And that's what we need to bedoing, because learning how to
do these things smartly in theprimary is how we can do them
successfully in the generalobviously not just about Philly,
but about voting strategies ingeneral, and that's how we win
elections and that's how we beatthe Republicans.
And we do it by being smart.
And we do it by having acombination of good analytics
not just getting the numbers,but knowing what they mean and
(27:09):
what they don't mean and thenusing that with good messaging
that will move votes in thoseareas where we can move them.
That's what we need to do,because we are really, we have
our work cut out for us inNovember and we've got to be
smart and we've got to get pastconventional wisdom because if
you look at where it's gotten us, it's gotten us way too close
(27:32):
for comfort and there's too muchat stake.
Thank you for taking the timeto join me.
This has been the KeystoneMarketing Podcast.
I'm your host, jesse White.
Let's do it again next week asthe deep dive continues.
Have a great weekend, everybody.
Hey, democrats, maybe it's time for us to all take a
collective deep breath and turnour eyes towards the wisdom and
sage words of Mr Rush Limbaugh.
What, hold on?
I'm going somewhere with this.
Welcome to the KeystoneReckoning podcast.
I'm your host, jesse White.
It is Friday, april 26, 2024.
We are still continuing ourbreakdown and analysis of this
(00:24):
past Tuesday's Democraticprimary election.
For more broad overview, pleasecheck out our last episode.
We're now going to starttalking about specific races and
trends and things of thatnature, and today we're going to
talk about a trend in thestatewide races that actually
were contested.
So we're talking about theprimaries for Attorney general,
(00:46):
auditor general and treasurerand we're going to look at those
.
And there's one thread thatseems to run through all of them
and it runs along with a pieceof conventional wisdom that,
from a campaign side, we have totalk about as Democrats,
because it really played itselfout in a very relevant way.
Now, I started this episode bysaying we should listen to Rush
(01:08):
Limbaugh.
Okay, obviously you know, notreally, but there is one thing
that he said that actuallyapplies here.
And, by the way, do you knowhow painful it is to go through
a Google search of Rush Limbaughquotes to find the one you're
looking for Like.
It's like I feel like I have totake seven showers now going
(01:31):
through all his quotes, but theone that is relevant here is
Rush Limbaugh said I rejectconventional wisdom, and I'm
sure he was trying to soundsmarter than everybody in the
room or whatever.
But there is, there's somethingto be taken from that trying to
sound smarter than everybody inthe room or whatever but
there's something to be takenfrom that Because, as we went
through the Democratic primary,I'm a political consultant it's
(01:52):
one of the hats I wear doing alot of different kinds of voter
contact with several differentkind of companies and
organizations.
So I was in contact with a lotof consultants, a lot of
strategists and a lot ofcampaigns going through the
primary, working on strategy andvoter contact, and the thing
(02:13):
that we always kept coming backto that seems to be this
conventional wisdom that justdoes not go away is that you
have to win Philadelphia to wina Democratic primary in
Pennsylvania.
You've got to win Philly, andthat is just where everybody
sticks.
And this primary made it veryclear that you don't.
(02:34):
You don't need to winPhiladelphia to win statewide,
and now we have the numbers toprove it.
Ok, so let's talk about it fora minute, this idea that winning
Philly is the end all be all ofa Democratic primary.
You know it's, quite frankly,it's kind of lazy analysis, and
(02:58):
10, 15, 20 years ago I could seeit a little more, because, for
a couple of reasons.
First of all, when you look atthe number of voters, you know,
in pure population density andeverything, obviously
Philadelphia is the the most,the richest trove of votes per
square mile that you're going tofind in Pennsylvania.
(03:19):
Right, the city'soverwhelmingly Democratic.
It's really a turnout game.
Right, it's a motivation game.
It's a turnout game Justgetting those.
You know, like every politicalcampaign since the dawn of time,
since, you know, 1776, has saidif we could just get Philly to
turn out and vote we'd be greatstatewide.
(03:40):
Right, every presidentialcampaign has said that.
Every you know statewide Senaterace has said that all this,
all the state, you knowstatewide judicial, statewide
row offices, if we could justget Philly to turn out, we'll
win this cycle.
(04:09):
Because there wasn't reallyanything, any major
Philly-centric races for folksto turn out for, for example,
the congressional districts thatare all that include
Philadelphia.
There were no serious primariesthere.
Dwight Evans had a tokenopposition but it was minor
right, he was never in anydanger.
Those seats were all safe.
There were no major stateSenate primaries out there,
(04:30):
things where there would bepeople on the ground working a
field program to get people outto the polls for each side,
which would then drive upturnout across the board, or you
would have more media spendingthere.
Right, you didn't have any ofthat and you often don't have
that.
And it's this weird thingbecause you know, in Philly the
primary is the general right.
(04:51):
That is the election in Philly.
Now, statewide it's a muchbigger deal and turnout efforts
and the money and the effortsthat would need to be spent to
turn out Philly in the generalare obviously crucially
important right In a generalelection because you need to run
up the totals in places likePhilly.
Well, there's really no placelike Philly.
You need to run up the total inPhilly to offset a lot.
(05:15):
You know a lot of the other bigred parts of the state, but
that's not what we're talkingabout here.
We're talking about aDemocratic primary and in a
Democratic primary, this timearound it was a low turnout
primary.
Across the board turnout lessthan 30%.
Total Democratic votes castwere 1,015,000.
(05:36):
Of those, the votes cast inPhiladelphia were 150,000.
14.7% of the Democratic votecame from Philadelphia.
Now, granted, that's notnothing, right?
150,000 votes is no joke.
If I'm running statewide, Iwant those votes Absolutely.
(05:58):
But and this is the part we needto look at there are a couple
of factors here.
First is, when you vote in aprimary, your county is next to
your name, right?
So when people went to votethis time, for example for we'll
use Auditor General becauseit's the only one it's one that
(06:19):
had a Philly candidate.
It's the only one, or it's onethat had a Philly candidate, and
so it was Malcolm Kenyatta,philadelphia, mark Pinsley,
lehigh.
Okay, the general thought thereis people vote geography, and I
can tell you, being from WesternPennsylvania, I'll be totally
honest.
You know, from Washington,allegheny County, all things
being equal, you usually weren'tgoing to vote for the candidate
(06:41):
from Philly.
We're all kind of parochial inthat way, right, we're going to
vote for the people that livenear us.
I'm not saying it's good, I'mnot saying it's smart, but it's
what people do, right?
Oh, I live in Washington County, you live in Allegheny County,
if I don't know any of the othercandidates, and that's the
other thing.
These were relatively lowinformation races.
(07:02):
People didn't know a lot aboutthese candidates were relatively
low information races, peopledidn't know a lot about these
candidates.
So when they go in to vote theysaw name and county, that's it.
So what can you really pullfrom that?
You can figure out wherethey're from and you know from
their name you can probablyfigure out some ethnicity and
gender.
Okay, that's it, and that's ifyou take a second and study it.
(07:24):
So then from there people couldgo in.
Obviously they're like oh,philly, much more liberal, you
know, uh, they're from, you'refrom Western PA, you're, or
Central PA, you're probably moreconservative.
Again, conventional wisdom,right?
We, we think we know thesethings and there might be some
of it may be accurate, but it'scertainly not all accurate.
It's not all you know.
It's nothing you can really sayfor certain.
(07:44):
So there's that part of it.
So that's part of it.
We have this big, this big chunkof votes in Philadelphia and I
would argue that Philly isunique.
It's unique of anywhere in thestate for a lot of different
reasons, and that's not bad.
I want to be clear.
You know I'm a Pittsburghsports fan, so I usually don't
have much good to say aboutPhilly in general.
(08:05):
It's one of my least favoriteplaces on the planet to drive,
as borne out when we were at aPhillies-Pirates game a couple
of weeks ago, but OK.
But from a pure Democraticpolitics point of view,
obviously Philly's criticallyimportant in Pennsylvania and it
offsets a lot of.
There's a lot of good thatcomes out of Philly that offsets
a lot of bad going on in otherparts of the state.
(08:26):
So the key is then being able,in a primary, to harness those
votes, and it's very difficultand a lot of it has to do with
methodology, and if you've neverworked on a larger campaign
that would like encompassstatewide or Philly and other
areas, you really don'tunderstand the different
strategies that are in play.
Okay, so one thing is you knowwe talk about different voter
(08:50):
contact methods, and I thinkthat's really what we're coming
down to here is how do we talkto voters before an election?
And nowadays you know I'm a bigbeliever, I've always been a
big believer in you.
You can now, using technology,we can micro target voters right
.
I can use data to know how toget a hold of you Email, text,
(09:11):
phone call, I can knock on yourdoor.
I can do all these things andthe technology is really amazing
, and we'll talk a lot betweennow and November about voter
contact methods, of what works,and I've got a great episode
coming up, uh, called mean textsfrom this primary.
That's going to be hilarious,um, but there's all these
different methods and there's noone way.
(09:31):
That's.
It's one of those things whereI can't necessarily tell you the
best way to, but I could tellyou the worst way and
unfortunately, a lot of theworst ways come from Philly in
terms of how people try tocontact and interact with voters
and turn them out.
Right, there's persuade them tosupport you, and then there's
(09:52):
persuade them to participate,which in a primary you know was
going to be a low turnoutprimary, super important, right?
Okay, you've met me.
You agree with me?
Fantastic, how do we get yourbutt to the polls?
It's a two-part process and whenyou're talking about statewide,
the amount of money it takes toeffectively communicate with
voters on such a large scale isa huge problem, right?
(10:14):
Nobody has very few candidateshave the kind of money to do
that and almost nobody.
The only statewide candidatethat's going to have the money
to do that on the Democraticside this year is Bob Casey.
That's it, that's the list, andobviously President Biden, but
a Pennsylvania person runningstatewide.
The only one that'll haveenough money to do this truly
the right way is Bob Casey.
(10:35):
So what are your options?
You can go up on TV broadcastTV cost a fortune, very
expensive.
Your options, right.
You can go up on TV broadcastTV cost a fortune, very
expensive In Philly mediamarkets the most expensive in
the state.
You can also go up on cable.
You can go up on what they callconnected TV, which is, you
know, ways to get out onto withstreaming.
Now I would argue that TV isless effective than ever.
It's effective, but you know,now you have people that only
(10:57):
watch streaming services.
Right, you have all the cordcutters.
You have all these.
You know it's much morefragmented than it ever used to
be.
So it's a challenge Used to be,you save, you raise a bunch of
money.
You went up on TV Cable if youhad to broadcast, if you could
afford it, and that was it rightFor, like you know, the mass
media.
But now there are so manydifferent options.
(11:22):
So you know.
Then you have direct mail and Idid get some direct mail for
some statewide, this primary.
I do direct mail.
Direct mail is very expensive,you know, winning a statewide
race with direct mail is verychallenging, because direct mail
, like all advertising, relieson repetition and it's not cheap
.
Then you get into digital right, which is you're seeing it, you
know um seeing it, you know onstreaming, you know on youtube,
(11:42):
but also, uh, social media,primarily facebook, stuff like
that uh can be very effective,because now we're getting into
the things that can be targetedat cost.
Right, you can, you can targetthem in a cost-effective way.
You're still not going to hiteverybody, but if you've got a
good list, you can hit.
You know 60 70% of your votersthat way, and the hits are
(12:04):
relatively cheap.
Then you get into robocalls andtexting as a disclaimer, one of
the things I sell theseservices to campaigns and
candidates, and so that issomething I'm very well versed
in.
I also work in the AI space,which is another conversation
we'll be having.
So there's a lot of differentways, but here's my point.
(12:25):
In Philly, now, you have thisother thing, right?
So those voter contact methodsare like uniform across the
board, right, they work prettymuch at all time zones.
Once you get into Philly,though, there's the ward system,
(12:53):
the ward leaders right wherethe Democratic Party, you know,
has their elected ward leaders,and campaigns and outside groups
to go around that system to getto the voters directly so that
they don't need to ask thecommittee or the world leaders
who should I vote for.
And also, you know the days ofpatronage are gone right, so
(13:16):
it's not like it used to be, butwhat they will do in Philly,
and they used to listen.
I've had to do this in places inthe past in Allegheny County
and places like that.
It happened and still happens,but you know the phrase street
(13:38):
money to give cash to whoeverthe ward leaders, whoever it's
going to be, to then distributeto people to stand at the polls
and hand out literature or dowhatever.
And campaigns this time aroundfelt a lot of pressure to invest
in.
You know they could say aturnout program or whatever, but
(14:00):
basically it was give us cashand we will get you votes.
That's what it is and Ipersonally to me, I think you
might be more effective takingyour money, putting it in a pile
, lighting it on fire andoffering people a nice you know,
to be able to sit by the fireand warm their hands as a way to
get their vote as a moreeffective method.
(14:21):
And this is, by the way, comingfrom what I've seen, and this
isn't just a Philly thing.
I want to be clear.
I'm not just.
This is not Philly centric.
But when you give money forpeople to be at the polls unless
they are someone who knowseverybody there those people are
few and far between and they'reusually the kind of people that
are going to do it for freebecause they want to volunteer.
But if you're paying someone tobe there, they're either going
(14:41):
to show up and just eat and sitand talk and not talk to voters,
or they're going to justbasically hand stuff to people
that people don't want.
And the other thing is we arenow in a position where
Democratic voters, especially,don't even go to the polls
anymore because we don't vote bymail.
So like 40% of the voters thatyou need to get aren't even
showing up at the polls becausethey've already voted.
It's a very ineffective, maybeone of the most ineffective
(15:05):
methods of spending yourcampaign resources that you
could possibly imagine in termsof voter contact.
There are a lot of other badways.
There's some.
We're going to tell some storiesout of the campaign finance
reports this time around, madefinance reports this time around
.
But so how do you get Philly?
And you know, and we again, wefall into this conventional
(15:26):
wisdom.
I'm a candidate.
I've got someone telling methat I need to put this money
into Philly.
Spoiler alert it's someone fromPhilly, right, wouldn't be
shocked if there's a finder'sfee involved.
We've all got to make money andyou know.
But you're literally justpouring money into a bucket and
hoping that you get somethingout of it.
There's no way to quantify it.
There's no way to quantify whatyou get from that, whereas if
(15:50):
I'm emailing, calling, texting,knocking, I have data coming
back, or at least I know themessage is delivered to the
voter.
But that's Philly.
And we always fall into thistrap of we've got to Somehow.
Philly is different, right, andwe always fall into this trap
of we've got to somehow feelhe's different.
And what this election taught uswas that the two in the two
truly contested races attorneygeneral and treasurer the
(16:11):
candidate that won Philadelphialost the election.
I'm going to repeat that thecandidate who won Philadelphia
lost the election.
So, and remember that Anytimesomebody is telling you this is
how it is, you have to winPhilly, you have to win Philly.
No, you really don't.
(16:32):
And I would argue that ifyou're not from Philly even if
you are from Philly, right, youwould take those votes, bank
them and go everywhere else.
If you're not from Philly andyou're running against someone
from Philly, even if you arefrom Philly, right, you would
take those votes, bank them andgo everywhere else.
If you're not from Philly andyou're running against someone
from Philly, acknowledge they'regoing to you're.
You know, I had a situation thistime where a candidate was
being asked to put money in likemultiple camps were being asked
to put money into a Phillyelection day program and my
(16:55):
question to the candidate waswait a minute, if they're taking
your money and they're takingyour opponent's money, what good
does that do?
And they were like we just wantto cancel out what You've
basically just given the peopleyou're giving the money to an
out to not deliver at all,because you're asking that.
You're basically saying hereI'm going to give you money to
offset their money, to make sureyou don't do anything for them.
(17:16):
What Makes no sense, anythingfor them, what Makes no sense.
And there are campaigns and wewill talk about it when the
reports come out that largepercentages of their voter
contact budget went to stufflike that instead of actual
voter contact that wasquantifiable and qualitative and
(17:38):
that it was high quality andthey could have talked to a hell
of a lot more voters a lot moreeffectively for a lot less
money.
And they didn't, and theresults will bear that out.
So let's look very quickly atthese couple of contests and to
give you an idea, so let's startwith the Attorney General.
The statewide winner was EugeneDiPasquale, who had geography on
(18:01):
his side.
He lives in Allegheny Countynow he's from there.
He's from Pittsburgh originally, but he was a state rep from
York County for a lot of years.
I was in there with him, sothat's where his political
history is from.
His political history is from,and then as a two-term auditor
(18:26):
general, he was well-known,obviously in the other part of
central PA, because this is acompany town and everybody just
knew who he was.
So he didn't need Philly.
And if you look at the heat mapof where he won, he basically
won everything but Philly.
He won everything west ofHarrisburg and he won it handily
.
Okay.
So let's look at his overall.
He got 368,000 votes, which was35% of the vote in a
(18:47):
five-candidate field Okay.
So he came in first In Philly.
Sorry, I have to click it InPhilly, oops, that's Montgomery
County, is not Philly.
In Philly, di Pasquale got 8.3%of the vote.
He got 13,500 out of 150,000.
(19:09):
He did the worst by almost half.
The next highest performingcandidate was Joe Kahn with 15%.
Fourth place candidate prettymuch doubled the fifth place
candidate Okay.
Deepest quality gets crushed inPhiladelphia.
Wins handily everywhere elsewins the primary.
(19:33):
Now, the inverse of that KeiraBradford Gray, philadelphia.
She was a Philadelphia publicdefender.
Only woman in the race.
Only woman.
Only person of color in therace Okay, transgender only
woman in the race.
Only woman.
Only person of color in therace.
There should have been astatewide appeal there to
Democratic primary voters whowant to vote for women.
And these were all fivequalified candidates.
(19:54):
This is a great race to look atbecause all five candidates are
qualified.
So you can't look at one and belike, yeah, but they were a bad
candidate or whatever.
They all had their strengthsand I think that had something
to do with there not being anendorsement in the race.
I think people recognize that.
So Kiera Bradford Gray winsPhilly handily 36%, basically
(20:14):
the same amount that DeepaSqually wins the state by.
She wins Philly with 36%, 57,almost 58,000 votes.
The next closest was JaredSolomon, with only 22% of the
vote.
She beat him by over 22,000votes in Philly right.
So she won Philly handily right.
So she is clearly you knowshe's running for mayor at some
(20:36):
point or running for citycouncil or whatever.
I mean she did very well andespecially because the other
three candidates Joe Kahn, jackStolmeyer and Jared Solomon all
Jared Solomon, they're allPhilly adjacent, they're all
Eastern PA.
So she did very well.
Now, 36% in Philly.
How did she do statewide?
Well, you ask.
(20:56):
She got 15% of the votesstatewide.
She came in second to last.
She got over a third of hervotes statewide out of Philly.
She disproportionately wonPhilly and she came in fourth
out of five and she was onlyavoided last place by about two
points.
So she didn't need Philly towin and we'll look at the
(21:17):
reports.
If she did put money intoPhilly, that's insane, because
she just didn't need it Rightand she clearly did it
everywhere else.
She had a great profile, couldhave done a lot better in a lot
of places, didn't happen.
All right, let's look brieflythen at Treasure the other one I
want to skip Auditor Generalfor a massive amount of reasons,
mainly because it was not acompetitive race.
(21:39):
As the numbers bear out,malcolm Kenyatta was from Philly
.
I mean, he won.
To give you an idea, he won 65%of the vote statewide in Philly
he won 89% of the vote, but itdidn't matter.
The Pensley campaign didn't doenough outside of Philly to even
put a dent into that.
(21:59):
I think that the campaignfinance reports will show that
they probably should have.
All right, let's talk Treasurerfor a second, and this will be
the last one.
Okay, this is a great example.
Ryan Bizarro, democratic,endorsed statewide.
We've talked about this.
He had all the endorsements.
Whatever, he wins Philadelphiahandily, 62% to 38% over Aaron
(22:22):
McClellan.
He has 86,000, almost 87,000votes to her 54,000.
So he almost he hasn't quite,but he's like didn't double her
up, but he like one and a halfder up in Philly, right, and, by
the way, this is a good testbecause he's from Erie Bizarre
is from Erie McClellan's, fromAllegheny County.
So there was nobody west of,like you know, venango.
(22:44):
There's going to be east ofVenango on the ballot, right,
like that was it.
This was a western PA thing, soPhilly was fertile ground for
everybody.
Okay, bizarro does great thereAlmost 62%.
But what did he do?
Statewide, he loses not even46% of the vote.
He loses McClellan 54-48.
(23:05):
So in a race where there was noPhilly candidate and we'll see
we know he was up on TV and I'mcurious to see where.
But if he did so, yes, he wonPhilly, but did he overspend in
Philly at the expense of otherplaces?
I don't know.
We're going to find out out.
I'd be willing to bet that hedid.
(23:25):
I would be, and I know I lookedat some.
You know he out raised bizarre.
Out raised mcclellan, I think,like five to one.
Don't quote me on that, butit's somewhere in that
neighborhood.
So you have the moneycomparatively, um, and I know
what mcclellan did for somevoter contact.
It's been out there and I willjust close.
It was involved in some of theoutreach that she did.
(23:46):
I'm not part of the campaign, Iwant to be clear about that,
but we did some vendor work forher race late.
So I know what they did anddidn't do.
So I'm speaking from someserious knowledge here.
I know exactly what was saidand who was said to at least
part of it and it clearly thestrategy and I'm not considering
(24:08):
it was all mine, but Icontributed to it, that part of
it, that strategy worked.
So the point is, you know theshow Heroes.
I never really watched it but Iwas like I knew it right.
But if you remember that showHeroes, for a while there was
that phrase save the cheerleader, save the world.
I don't know what it means, butI know everybody was saying it
(24:30):
and it just whenever I wasthinking about all this
conventionalism stuff.
It's like win Philly, win thestate, win Philly, win the
nomination.
No, no, that's just notaccurate.
I'm not saying it's neveraccurate.
There are times where that canvery easily be a very smart
strategy for a campaign to take.
But campaigns are not monolithic.
(24:50):
Philadelphia is not monolithic.
I think that's actually prettyoffensive to suggest that Philly
is this monolithic.
It's a massive city, countywith an incredible amount of
diversity racial, ethnic,cultural, socioeconomic.
I mean it is maybe the leastmonolithic voting bloc in the
state and I think it's done adisservice that people in the
(25:15):
candidate world and theconsultant world just treat it
like it's just this big bluebucket and it's not.
But to assume that that is thebeginning and the end of an
election statewide is just notaccurate.
And now we have the numbers toprove it.
There's a lot more of theseresults are going to tell us,
but that was the thing.
When I looked at these onelection night and the next day
(25:38):
that was the first thing I wentto because I'd been hearing
about it.
I've been hearing you hearabout it every year, but this
this year especially.
Everybody's strategy was builtaround Philly and the cost and
the uncertainty of voter contactto Philly voters as compared to
the ways you could talk tovoters all over the state and
(26:02):
the fact that Philly willgenerally vote for Philly.
Other areas will tend to notvote for Philly and those are
kind of burned in biases, youknow, geographical biases that
are hard to overcome notimpossible, but they're hard to.
But why?
Why go against the grain whenyou don't have to?
So there are huge lessons to betaken from these races that
(26:25):
need to become part of theconversation in lieu of or in
replacement of the conventionalwisdom, because the people that
look at this and actuallyunderstand it will be able to
take this information and use itnext time to actually be
successful, because they'llactually know what works and
what doesn't work, or they'llknow what doesn't work, know
what works and what doesn't work, or they'll know what doesn't
(26:46):
work.
And that's what we need to bedoing, because learning how to
do these things smartly in theprimary is how we can do them
successfully in the generalobviously not just about Philly,
but about voting strategies ingeneral, and that's how we win
elections and that's how we beatthe Republicans.
And we do it by being smart.
And we do it by having acombination of good analytics
not just getting the numbers,but knowing what they mean and
(27:09):
what they don't mean and thenusing that with good messaging
that will move votes in thoseareas where we can move them.
That's what we need to do,because we are really, we have
our work cut out for us inNovember and we've got to be
smart and we've got to get pastconventional wisdom because if
you look at where it's gotten us, it's gotten us way too close
(27:32):
for comfort and there's too muchat stake.
Thank you for taking the timeto join me.
This has been the KeystoneMarketing Podcast.
I'm your host, jesse White.
Let's do it again next week asthe deep dive continues.
Have a great weekend, everybody.
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