Unlocking the Japanese Power Market with Mark Todoroff

In this episode of Know Power, hosts Noha and Michael are joined by Mark Todoroff, Head of APAC Business Development for Yes Energy. Together, they explore the dynamic changes within Japan’s energy market following its deregulation in 2016. Mark shares his journey into the energy sector and offers insights into Japan’s energy landscape, including its dual-grid system, the impact of renewables like solar and offshore wind, and the influence of global trends on Japan’s evolving energy market.

The discussion dives into market design comparisons with the U.S. and Europe, the role of cultural and regulatory factors in shaping market participation, and the complex interplay of challenges like renewable integration, pricing mechanisms, and demand forecasting. Mark also highlights Japan's energy transition efforts amid growing industrial demands and its push toward sustainability.

Tune in to understand the key drivers, challenges, and opportunities in one of the world’s largest power markets.

Guest bio:

Mark Todoroff is Business Development Director of APAC at Yes Energy (formerly TESLA Forecasting), based in New Zealand. His areas of expertise are gas and electric load forecasting, energy economics and econometrics. Through his leadership, he established and grew TESLA’s APAC forecasting team from 1 client in 1 country to 35+ clients across 6 countries.

Mark is one of the 100 World Energy Council’s Future Energy Leaders and was previously Co-Chair of the Young Energy Professionals Network (YEPN), the national FEL programme of New Zealand.

Prior to relocating to New Zealand, Mark worked as a Senior Energy Economist at TESLA’s USA branch for four years. Mark is well known in the global energy forecasting and trading communities with his analysis frequently shared in industry news such as Bloomberg and high scores in forecasting competitions like Tokyo Electric Power Company’s 1st Electricity Load Forecasting Technology Contest. Mark received an MA in Economics from Virginia Commonwealth University and a BBA in Economics and Finance from James Madison University.

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[00:00:00] Introduction to Japan’s energy market and Mark Todoroff’s background.

[00:04:03] The evolution of Japan’s deregulated market post-2016.

[00:06:11] Regional demand dynamics: industrial hubs and seasonal peaks.

[00:09:03] The impact of Japan’s dual-grid (50Hz/60Hz) system.

[00:11:00] Market design comparisons: lessons borrowed from the U.S. and Europe.

[00:15:07] Data transparency challenges and their impact on market participation.

[00:18:05] The absence of negative pricing in Japan's power market.

[00:23:12] Challenges in forecasting and data reliability amid energy transition.

[00:27:02] Impacts of global LNG dependency and Fukushima on energy policy.

[00:29:46] Rising industrial demand from AI, semiconductor manufacturing, and data centers.

[00:32:15] Key barriers to market entry for foreign participants.

[00:37:20] The role of futures markets in stabilizing Japan’s energy sector.

[00:42:10] Opportunities for innovation in smart meters and real-time data integration.

[00:47:23] Recommendations for improving market functionality through weather and demand forecasting.

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