August 12, 2025 • 21 mins
In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Matthew Tuttle, CEO and CIO of Tuttle Capital, to talk about why the 60/40 portfolio no longer works — and how his HEAT formula helps investors adapt to today’s market realities.
We dig into why bonds fail as a hedge, how AI is reshaping investing, and the thematic opportunities most people are missing — from old economy AI plays to the future of space.
In this episode:
- Why bonds aren’t a reliable hedge anymore
- How the HEAT formula works — hedges, edges, asymmetry, themes
- Using leveraged and inverse ETFs strategically
- Thematic investing in AI, crypto, and space
- How AI is leveling the playing field for retail investors
Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with top financial minds shaping markets in real time.
Subscribe for more interviews, insights, and raw takes that cut deeper than the headlines.
#LeadLagLive #ETFs #Investing #HEATFormula #AI #StockMarket #MatthewTuttle #PortfolioStrategy #ThematicInvesting
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
And again, if you think bonds are a hedge, look at
the Liberation Day sell-off.
What happened to your bonds?
Look at 2022.
What happened to your bonds?
What companies are taking thistechnology and using it, like
you know a Walmart or someonelike that to enhance?
We're going to be launching abunch more.
Speaker 2 (00:32):
Hi everyone and welcome back to Lead Leg Live.
I'm your host, mel Schaefer.
Today I'm joined by MatthewTuttle, ceo and CIO of Tuttle
Capital.
Matt, it's great to have youhere.
Thank you for having me.
So, matt, you've become wellknown for leveraged and inverse
ETFs, one of the most well knownon financial Twitter acts, but
against a big name, jim Cramer.
(00:53):
But I guess not everyoneunderstands why those tools were
even, or why do they even exist.
Can you start by tellingviewers what these products are,
and what do you say toinvestors who question whether
they need to have them in theirportfolio?
Speaker 1 (01:06):
Yeah.
So you know, we definitely seea lot of pushback from people on
single name, levered andinverse ETFs.
How can you have an ETF for asingle name?
Leverage is bad, oh my God.
And really, what these are aretools, and I am a big believer
(01:28):
that more tools are better.
Now, does that mean everyone isgoing to use the tools the
right way?
No, but you know we strive veryhard on things like this and
through our website and I'dwrite a daily newsletter to try
to educate people on how to usethings.
(01:48):
You know, obviously these aredesigned to give you 2X of the
upside or the downside for oneday only Doesn't mean you can't
hold it for more than a day.
It just means you hold it formore than a day.
You might do better than 2X,you might do worse than 2X, you
might do worse than 2x.
It just depends on the glidepath of returns and you know I
(02:11):
like to look at these in a bunchof different ways.
You know, if you're bullish ona stock that's maybe trading at,
you know, 500 bucks a share andthere's a levered ETF trading
at five, you know it allows youmaybe to buy into a stock that
you wouldn't have been able tobuy into.
Same thing on the options youknow the options on a stock
(02:34):
trading at five hundred aregoing to be more expensive from
a premium standpoint than theoptions are in a stock.
You know something trading atlike five.
I also look at it as an optionsalternative from the standpoint
.
You can't trade options inafter hours and pre-market.
You can trade levered andinverse so and we see ahead of
(02:57):
earnings a spike in volume inour ETFs, especially like right
after earnings post-market.
You know people may be tradingthe ETF.
They can't trade the options.
So there's a lot of differentuses for these things and
they're just tools.
Speaker 2 (03:15):
Yeah, and maybe tools more for the sophisticated
investor.
But I mean, you're doing somethings to try to educate
investors and I wanted to talkabout the heat formula and
investment strategy.
I know you're writing a bookabout what inspired that
framework in the first place andyou know why do you think it
matters so much right now?
Speaker 1 (03:35):
Yeah, so I have seen a lot.
What I have not seen is a wholelot of changes in what people
are taught about investing,which doesn't make any sense to
(03:56):
me because market dynamics areconstantly changing.
Like the 60-40 portfolio wasdeveloped in the 50s and people
still use it today, even thoughit obviously and you see
articles from time to time itobviously doesn't work.
So that's what inspired me.
(04:16):
I used to have a wealthmanagement firm and we would
teach people these concepts.
I got into ETFs, I got out ofwealth management, but nothing's
changed.
So we're actually we'restarting up a wealth management
firm again because I'm sittinghere saying you know, man,
what's out here still sucks.
You know, someone needs to dosomething about it.
Speaker 2 (04:39):
So can you talk about what does that stand for HEAT?
Can you talk a little bit aboutthe philosophy and how you're
putting it to work?
Speaker 1 (04:47):
So yeah, the acronym H-E-A-T H is for hedges.
I am a big believer that youshould always have hedges
because you cannot predict themarket.
Look at the past couple of days.
I mean doom and gloom on Friday, then everything great on
Monday, sell off again yesterdayand now a big rally again today
(05:11):
.
I mean good luck figuring thatstuff out Now.
But I'm also a big believer.
Bonds are not a hedge.
For something to be a hedge, ithas to work every time, not
every once in a while, becausehow can you sleep at night
saying no, all right, I'm hedged, but I don't know whether my
(05:33):
hedge is going to help.
And again, if you think bondsare a hedge, look at the
liberation day.
Sell off.
What happened to your bonds.
Look at 2022.
What happened to your bonds?
So that's the H Edge.
E stands for edges, meaning youshould look for edges.
Those could be structural,those could be an investment
(05:56):
philosophy that's got some sortof moat to it, or it could be
behavioral.
Is buying quotes on the VIXexchange traded products?
Because of how they'restructured and because of the
fact that VIX needs a reason tostay elevated, those products,
(06:20):
if they did not reverse splitall the time, would be trading
at like a fraction of a penny.
So most of the time I'm goingto own puts on those things.
A strategy edge we run a fundfor these guys called Brendan
Wood, and Brendan Wood'sphilosophy is they go out and
they interview thousands of thetop money managers in the
(06:44):
country and one of the thingsthey ask them is what stock or
stocks are you going to bebuying more of or buying for the
first time over the next threeto six months?
And they compile the top 25.
I call that an edge with a moatbecause you and I couldn't do
that.
I could call up Steve Cohen hey, steve, what are you going to
(07:05):
be buying?
He's not going to talk to me.
Why he's talking to BrendanWood is they put together these
massive reports that if you talkto them you get their report,
so nobody can arb that edge out.
A behavioral edge is somethinglike RSI.
So Larry Connors kind ofdiscovered or created or
(07:29):
modified, let's say, rsi in theearly 90s.
We said look, two, three orfour period RSI is predictive
and it still works.
And it still works just as welltoday as it did in the 90s,
because that is a behavioraledge based on the fact that
individual investors tend tooverreact both ways.
(07:53):
Asymmetry is the A.
That means you should designyour portfolio and your trades
to be asymmetric Heads.
I win a lot Tails, I lose alittle.
We run a pre-merger SPAC ETF,spcx.
I love SPACs as an asymmetrictrade, a pre-merger SPAC,
(08:13):
because you know your downsideis whatever cash and trust
unlimited upside, call options,same deal.
I know my downside unlimitedupside.
And if you look at the topinvestors of all time, these are
guys who know you cut yourlosses short, you let your
profits run.
And then the last one is the T,which is themes you want to be
(08:37):
invested in today and tomorrow'stop themes, not diversified by
style, asset class factors, anyof that stuff.
You want to be diversified bywhatever the top themes are
today and you want to have asense of what those are going to
be tomorrow.
So that's the HEAP formula.
Speaker 2 (08:57):
Yeah, so talking more specifically about themes, can
you talk about some of the ETFsin your current lineup that
investors could look at to coverthe T in AT?
Speaker 1 (09:07):
So we're going to be launching a lot more in that
regard.
One of the ones we have is theLaffer-Tangler equity income ETF
and it wouldn't sound thematicI mean, what's thematic about
equity income?
But Nancy Tangler runs that ETFand one of the main things
she's looking for is old economycompanies that are benefiting
(09:30):
from AI.
So that's a theme and that's away I like.
I mean and I've got all the AIcompanies as well but I like
playing it from that aspect.
You know, all right, we knowNVIDIA is the AI winner, but
what companies are taking thistechnology and using it like you
know, a Walmart or someone likethat to enhance?
(09:52):
We're going to be launching abunch more thematic ETFs.
We've kind of come up with acouple of twists.
It's just taken us a while toget those out.
We'll have those out soon.
Speaker 2 (10:06):
Yeah, and so Matt.
Another thing I just wanted tohit on briefly.
I know Rex shares inTelecollaborated to bring the
T-Backs ETFs, I think mostrecently expanded to include
some big names like Roblox andthe front media.
How does building leveragedETFs around these sort of high
profile stocks and even cryptoproducts fit in to the heat
formula?
Speaker 1 (10:26):
we're definitely looking at thematic names
because the market has reallychanged and retail investors get
it.
You know, the institutions Ithink are coming.
I mean I was talking to a hedgefund manager the other day who
was running a fundamentalstrategy.
(10:46):
In the past couple of yearsThey've had trouble and the guy
was like man, when did thismarket just get thematic?
Welcome to the party, pal.
I mean it's been that way.
I don't think it's changing.
So when we're looking at singlenames, we're trying to align
(11:07):
with the major themes out there.
So obviously AI with, you know,nvidia, crypto with MSTU and
BTCL and ETU, and then some ofthe crypto treasury stuff DJTU,
you know, gmeu for GameStop, youknow.
Looking at some stable coinstuff, you know we've got we
(11:29):
just did CoreWeave, we've gotCircle coming out.
So we're looking at thesethematic names because the guys
trading this stuff realize it'snot large cap, small cap, growth
value anymore, it's thematic.
Speaker 2 (11:44):
Yeah, and so you've mentioned AI a couple of times
and I want to talk about it intwo different ways.
So in the first way, how do youthink it's changing the
investment landscape, not justfor fund managers, you know,
like yourself, but for everydayinvestors?
Speaker 1 (11:58):
So what it is doing is further leveling the playing
field.
So back when I startedinvesting, it was all about
fundamental analysis and if Iwere smarter than you and was
willing to work harder, I wasgoing to uncover stuff that you
weren't, because you had to work.
I mean, I go to library, readreports, call company management
(12:22):
, all of that stuff.
The internet started to changethat, bloomberg started to
change that, and now AI is.
I mean I can't imagine why youwould employ fundamental
analysis anymore.
Are you going to, from time totime, find some hidden gem?
(12:45):
Sure, are you going to do itconsistently?
I doubt it.
I mean, with AI at myfingertips, I have the world's
smartest analyst who, in fiveseconds, can do what you and I
would take hours to do and lookat it in an unbiased way.
(13:06):
So I use it to help kind ofdesign my portfolio and I'll
throw brokerage research reportsin there.
And it was interesting one dayand it just kind of hit me where
, you know, I threw a brokeragereport in there, said you know,
hey, look, and anything I shouldpay attention to here.
(13:27):
It was like you know, yeah, ifI were you, I would sell this
stock which it knew I ownedbecause it knows me and I would
buy this stock.
All right, interesting, andactually it was a stock.
I was looking for an excuse tosell and a stock I was looking
for an excuse to buy, so I didit, but afterwards I was like
(13:48):
holy crap.
An excuse to buy, so I did it,but afterwards I was like holy
crap.
So for $200 a month I've gotthe world's smartest investment
analyst on my computer who justgave me personalized investment
advice, totally unbiased,because it knew what my
portfolio was, it knew how Ithought about markets and it
looked at research and said,matt, if I were you, I would do
(14:10):
this because I know you.
That's a game changer.
Speaker 2 (14:15):
Yeah, it is.
And then so, on the flip side,in terms of investing, where do
you think we are within the AIcycle?
Are our evaluations starting toget too stretched, and what do
you look at to judge that?
Speaker 1 (14:26):
So we just today in our newsletter, wrote about the
possibility of a bubble.
That's always there, you know.
In AI, you know.
The problem is, you just don'tknow.
So you know, are the valuationsstretched?
Yes, you know.
When are we going to see thebenefits from all this capital
(14:49):
expenditures?
Who knows?
Are we going to the benefitsfrom all this capital
expenditures?
Who knows?
Are we going to see benefitsfrom all these capital
expenditures?
We don't know that either.
So I think you've got to take ameasured approach here.
So you've got to be in thesenames.
I think you want to do itasymmetrically.
So again, I like doing it withcall options.
(15:12):
If I buy $2,000 worth of NVIDIAcall options, I know my maximum
loss is $2,000 unlimited upside.
You want to have hedges becauseyou're not going to be able to
time it, but you also don't wantto go crazy because you could
be right, we could be in abubble, and you know after the
(15:33):
fact it will be obvious.
But sitting in it it is.
It is tough, you know I do.
The cool thing about the heatformula is you can dial it up,
dial it down.
For me personally, I run a veryconservative version.
I'm at a stage in life where ifI were up 50%, it's not going
(15:54):
to change my lifestyle.
If I'm down 50%, that's goingto suck.
So I'm running it veryconservatively.
I don't really.
I mean I do, but I don't carethat much if we're in a bubble.
The way I've got my portfolioset up, I just think you've got
to be careful because you're notgoing to know about it until
after the fact.
Speaker 2 (16:13):
Yeah, and so I just want to.
I want to hit on the thematicinvesting just one more time.
You've always sort of had aneye, I guess, with themes and
you're a bit ahead of the curvewhen it comes to that sort of
thing.
What are you watching right nowthat maybe others aren't paying
enough attention to, right?
Speaker 1 (16:28):
now that maybe others aren't paying enough attention
to.
So I think maybe the biggestarea that people may not be
paying attention to is space,and so we do a podcast as well,
and we just we had someone ontalking about Space Force
yesterday.
We had someone on a couple ofweeks ago runs a company that
(16:52):
transports things to and fromspace and interestingly, I did
not know this which is why it'scool to have a podcast and have
cool guests is there are a bunchof things that you can't make
on Earth because gravity screwsit up, like you know all sorts
of artificial, like eyes and youknow ligaments and things like
(17:15):
that, and then there are otherthings that gravity makes more
difficult.
So we're going to eventuallyhave a whole bunch of stuff in
space which creates a massiveeconomy because you've got to
get stuff up there.
But then why?
(17:36):
I wanted to talk to the SpaceForce guy.
If I put a data center inIndiana and say North Korea
wants to blow it up, how arethey going to do that?
They're going to invade the USand march all the way to Indiana
.
Good luck with that.
If I put something in space,then they just send one of those
James Bond satellites and iteats it.
(17:58):
So now we need to defend againstthat.
So you've got this whole groupof all right.
Who are the companies that aregoing to be building these
things?
And then what we teach peopleabout themes is you've got to
look at it in layers.
So the first layer is all rightwho are the winners?
But then who are the suppliersto the winners?
(18:20):
Who are the suppliers to thesuppliers?
Who are the companies that aregoing to use this technology to
improve their revenues?
Who are the losers?
So you've got all right.
I mean, who are the companiestransporting stuff to and from?
Who are the next level defensecompanies building things that
are going to defend all thisstuff?
(18:40):
So that's a theme that I'mreally excited about.
Speaker 2 (18:44):
Yeah, so looking beyond, I remember during the
COVID times when space was allabout just trading a Virgin
Galactic, which didn't end up sowell for everyone who bought
back then.
But, matt, before we wrap up,where is the best place for
people to follow you or learnmore about what you're doing at
Tuttle Capital?
Speaker 1 (19:02):
Yeah, so my website is TuttleCapcom.
We do a daily newsletter aboutsome sort of heat formula
concept.
The signup is on there.
I'm pretty active on Twitter atTuttle Capital, so those are
probably the best places to findme Great, Matt Well, thanks for
joining me and thanks toeveryone for watching.
Speaker 2 (19:21):
Be sure to like, share and subscribe for more
episodes of Lead Leg Live.
I'm your host, Mal Schafer.
And again, if you think bonds are a hedge, look at
the Liberation Day sell-off.
What happened to your bonds?
Look at 2022.
What happened to your bonds?
What companies are taking thistechnology and using it, like
you know a Walmart or someonelike that to enhance?
We're going to be launching abunch more.
Speaker 2 (00:32):
Hi everyone and welcome back to Lead Leg Live.
I'm your host, mel Schaefer.
Today I'm joined by MatthewTuttle, ceo and CIO of Tuttle
Capital.
Matt, it's great to have youhere.
Thank you for having me.
So, matt, you've become wellknown for leveraged and inverse
ETFs, one of the most well knownon financial Twitter acts, but
against a big name, jim Cramer.
(00:53):
But I guess not everyoneunderstands why those tools were
even, or why do they even exist.
Can you start by tellingviewers what these products are,
and what do you say toinvestors who question whether
they need to have them in theirportfolio?
Speaker 1 (01:06):
Yeah.
So you know, we definitely seea lot of pushback from people on
single name, levered andinverse ETFs.
How can you have an ETF for asingle name?
Leverage is bad, oh my God.
And really, what these are aretools, and I am a big believer
(01:28):
that more tools are better.
Now, does that mean everyone isgoing to use the tools the
right way?
No, but you know we strive veryhard on things like this and
through our website and I'dwrite a daily newsletter to try
to educate people on how to usethings.
(01:48):
You know, obviously these aredesigned to give you 2X of the
upside or the downside for oneday only Doesn't mean you can't
hold it for more than a day.
It just means you hold it formore than a day.
You might do better than 2X,you might do worse than 2X, you
might do worse than 2x.
It just depends on the glidepath of returns and you know I
(02:11):
like to look at these in a bunchof different ways.
You know, if you're bullish ona stock that's maybe trading at,
you know, 500 bucks a share andthere's a levered ETF trading
at five, you know it allows youmaybe to buy into a stock that
you wouldn't have been able tobuy into.
Same thing on the options youknow the options on a stock
(02:34):
trading at five hundred aregoing to be more expensive from
a premium standpoint than theoptions are in a stock.
You know something trading atlike five.
I also look at it as an optionsalternative from the standpoint
.
You can't trade options inafter hours and pre-market.
You can trade levered andinverse so and we see ahead of
(02:57):
earnings a spike in volume inour ETFs, especially like right
after earnings post-market.
You know people may be tradingthe ETF.
They can't trade the options.
So there's a lot of differentuses for these things and
they're just tools.
Speaker 2 (03:15):
Yeah, and maybe tools more for the sophisticated
investor.
But I mean, you're doing somethings to try to educate
investors and I wanted to talkabout the heat formula and
investment strategy.
I know you're writing a bookabout what inspired that
framework in the first place andyou know why do you think it
matters so much right now?
Speaker 1 (03:35):
Yeah, so I have seen a lot.
What I have not seen is a wholelot of changes in what people
are taught about investing,which doesn't make any sense to
(03:56):
me because market dynamics areconstantly changing.
Like the 60-40 portfolio wasdeveloped in the 50s and people
still use it today, even thoughit obviously and you see
articles from time to time itobviously doesn't work.
So that's what inspired me.
(04:16):
I used to have a wealthmanagement firm and we would
teach people these concepts.
I got into ETFs, I got out ofwealth management, but nothing's
changed.
So we're actually we'restarting up a wealth management
firm again because I'm sittinghere saying you know, man,
what's out here still sucks.
You know, someone needs to dosomething about it.
Speaker 2 (04:39):
So can you talk about what does that stand for HEAT?
Can you talk a little bit aboutthe philosophy and how you're
putting it to work?
Speaker 1 (04:47):
So yeah, the acronym H-E-A-T H is for hedges.
I am a big believer that youshould always have hedges
because you cannot predict themarket.
Look at the past couple of days.
I mean doom and gloom on Friday, then everything great on
Monday, sell off again yesterdayand now a big rally again today
(05:11):
.
I mean good luck figuring thatstuff out Now.
But I'm also a big believer.
Bonds are not a hedge.
For something to be a hedge, ithas to work every time, not
every once in a while, becausehow can you sleep at night
saying no, all right, I'm hedged, but I don't know whether my
(05:33):
hedge is going to help.
And again, if you think bondsare a hedge, look at the
liberation day.
Sell off.
What happened to your bonds.
Look at 2022.
What happened to your bonds?
So that's the H Edge.
E stands for edges, meaning youshould look for edges.
Those could be structural,those could be an investment
(05:56):
philosophy that's got some sortof moat to it, or it could be
behavioral.
Is buying quotes on the VIXexchange traded products?
Because of how they'restructured and because of the
fact that VIX needs a reason tostay elevated, those products,
(06:20):
if they did not reverse splitall the time, would be trading
at like a fraction of a penny.
So most of the time I'm goingto own puts on those things.
A strategy edge we run a fundfor these guys called Brendan
Wood, and Brendan Wood'sphilosophy is they go out and
they interview thousands of thetop money managers in the
(06:44):
country and one of the thingsthey ask them is what stock or
stocks are you going to bebuying more of or buying for the
first time over the next threeto six months?
And they compile the top 25.
I call that an edge with a moatbecause you and I couldn't do
that.
I could call up Steve Cohen hey, steve, what are you going to
(07:05):
be buying?
He's not going to talk to me.
Why he's talking to BrendanWood is they put together these
massive reports that if you talkto them you get their report,
so nobody can arb that edge out.
A behavioral edge is somethinglike RSI.
So Larry Connors kind ofdiscovered or created or
(07:29):
modified, let's say, rsi in theearly 90s.
We said look, two, three orfour period RSI is predictive
and it still works.
And it still works just as welltoday as it did in the 90s,
because that is a behavioraledge based on the fact that
individual investors tend tooverreact both ways.
(07:53):
Asymmetry is the A.
That means you should designyour portfolio and your trades
to be asymmetric Heads.
I win a lot Tails, I lose alittle.
We run a pre-merger SPAC ETF,spcx.
I love SPACs as an asymmetrictrade, a pre-merger SPAC,
(08:13):
because you know your downsideis whatever cash and trust
unlimited upside, call options,same deal.
I know my downside unlimitedupside.
And if you look at the topinvestors of all time, these are
guys who know you cut yourlosses short, you let your
profits run.
And then the last one is the T,which is themes you want to be
(08:37):
invested in today and tomorrow'stop themes, not diversified by
style, asset class factors, anyof that stuff.
You want to be diversified bywhatever the top themes are
today and you want to have asense of what those are going to
be tomorrow.
So that's the HEAP formula.
Speaker 2 (08:57):
Yeah, so talking more specifically about themes, can
you talk about some of the ETFsin your current lineup that
investors could look at to coverthe T in AT?
Speaker 1 (09:07):
So we're going to be launching a lot more in that
regard.
One of the ones we have is theLaffer-Tangler equity income ETF
and it wouldn't sound thematicI mean, what's thematic about
equity income?
But Nancy Tangler runs that ETFand one of the main things
she's looking for is old economycompanies that are benefiting
(09:30):
from AI.
So that's a theme and that's away I like.
I mean and I've got all the AIcompanies as well but I like
playing it from that aspect.
You know, all right, we knowNVIDIA is the AI winner, but
what companies are taking thistechnology and using it like you
know, a Walmart or someone likethat to enhance?
(09:52):
We're going to be launching abunch more thematic ETFs.
We've kind of come up with acouple of twists.
It's just taken us a while toget those out.
We'll have those out soon.
Speaker 2 (10:06):
Yeah, and so Matt.
Another thing I just wanted tohit on briefly.
I know Rex shares inTelecollaborated to bring the
T-Backs ETFs, I think mostrecently expanded to include
some big names like Roblox andthe front media.
How does building leveragedETFs around these sort of high
profile stocks and even cryptoproducts fit in to the heat
formula?
Speaker 1 (10:26):
we're definitely looking at thematic names
because the market has reallychanged and retail investors get
it.
You know, the institutions Ithink are coming.
I mean I was talking to a hedgefund manager the other day who
was running a fundamentalstrategy.
(10:46):
In the past couple of yearsThey've had trouble and the guy
was like man, when did thismarket just get thematic?
Welcome to the party, pal.
I mean it's been that way.
I don't think it's changing.
So when we're looking at singlenames, we're trying to align
(11:07):
with the major themes out there.
So obviously AI with, you know,nvidia, crypto with MSTU and
BTCL and ETU, and then some ofthe crypto treasury stuff DJTU,
you know, gmeu for GameStop, youknow.
Looking at some stable coinstuff, you know we've got we
(11:29):
just did CoreWeave, we've gotCircle coming out.
So we're looking at thesethematic names because the guys
trading this stuff realize it'snot large cap, small cap, growth
value anymore, it's thematic.
Speaker 2 (11:44):
Yeah, and so you've mentioned AI a couple of times
and I want to talk about it intwo different ways.
So in the first way, how do youthink it's changing the
investment landscape, not justfor fund managers, you know,
like yourself, but for everydayinvestors?
Speaker 1 (11:58):
So what it is doing is further leveling the playing
field.
So back when I startedinvesting, it was all about
fundamental analysis and if Iwere smarter than you and was
willing to work harder, I wasgoing to uncover stuff that you
weren't, because you had to work.
I mean, I go to library, readreports, call company management
(12:22):
, all of that stuff.
The internet started to changethat, bloomberg started to
change that, and now AI is.
I mean I can't imagine why youwould employ fundamental
analysis anymore.
Are you going to, from time totime, find some hidden gem?
(12:45):
Sure, are you going to do itconsistently?
I doubt it.
I mean, with AI at myfingertips, I have the world's
smartest analyst who, in fiveseconds, can do what you and I
would take hours to do and lookat it in an unbiased way.
(13:06):
So I use it to help kind ofdesign my portfolio and I'll
throw brokerage research reportsin there.
And it was interesting one dayand it just kind of hit me where
, you know, I threw a brokeragereport in there, said you know,
hey, look, and anything I shouldpay attention to here.
(13:27):
It was like you know, yeah, ifI were you, I would sell this
stock which it knew I ownedbecause it knows me and I would
buy this stock.
All right, interesting, andactually it was a stock.
I was looking for an excuse tosell and a stock I was looking
for an excuse to buy, so I didit, but afterwards I was like
(13:48):
holy crap.
An excuse to buy, so I did it,but afterwards I was like holy
crap.
So for $200 a month I've gotthe world's smartest investment
analyst on my computer who justgave me personalized investment
advice, totally unbiased,because it knew what my
portfolio was, it knew how Ithought about markets and it
looked at research and said,matt, if I were you, I would do
(14:10):
this because I know you.
That's a game changer.
Speaker 2 (14:15):
Yeah, it is.
And then so, on the flip side,in terms of investing, where do
you think we are within the AIcycle?
Are our evaluations starting toget too stretched, and what do
you look at to judge that?
Speaker 1 (14:26):
So we just today in our newsletter, wrote about the
possibility of a bubble.
That's always there, you know.
In AI, you know.
The problem is, you just don'tknow.
So you know, are the valuationsstretched?
Yes, you know.
When are we going to see thebenefits from all this capital
(14:49):
expenditures?
Who knows?
Are we going to the benefitsfrom all this capital
expenditures?
Who knows?
Are we going to see benefitsfrom all these capital
expenditures?
We don't know that either.
So I think you've got to take ameasured approach here.
So you've got to be in thesenames.
I think you want to do itasymmetrically.
So again, I like doing it withcall options.
(15:12):
If I buy $2,000 worth of NVIDIAcall options, I know my maximum
loss is $2,000 unlimited upside.
You want to have hedges becauseyou're not going to be able to
time it, but you also don't wantto go crazy because you could
be right, we could be in abubble, and you know after the
(15:33):
fact it will be obvious.
But sitting in it it is.
It is tough, you know I do.
The cool thing about the heatformula is you can dial it up,
dial it down.
For me personally, I run a veryconservative version.
I'm at a stage in life where ifI were up 50%, it's not going
(15:54):
to change my lifestyle.
If I'm down 50%, that's goingto suck.
So I'm running it veryconservatively.
I don't really.
I mean I do, but I don't carethat much if we're in a bubble.
The way I've got my portfolioset up, I just think you've got
to be careful because you're notgoing to know about it until
after the fact.
Speaker 2 (16:13):
Yeah, and so I just want to.
I want to hit on the thematicinvesting just one more time.
You've always sort of had aneye, I guess, with themes and
you're a bit ahead of the curvewhen it comes to that sort of
thing.
What are you watching right nowthat maybe others aren't paying
enough attention to, right?
Speaker 1 (16:28):
now that maybe others aren't paying enough attention
to.
So I think maybe the biggestarea that people may not be
paying attention to is space,and so we do a podcast as well,
and we just we had someone ontalking about Space Force
yesterday.
We had someone on a couple ofweeks ago runs a company that
(16:52):
transports things to and fromspace and interestingly, I did
not know this which is why it'scool to have a podcast and have
cool guests is there are a bunchof things that you can't make
on Earth because gravity screwsit up, like you know all sorts
of artificial, like eyes and youknow ligaments and things like
(17:15):
that, and then there are otherthings that gravity makes more
difficult.
So we're going to eventuallyhave a whole bunch of stuff in
space which creates a massiveeconomy because you've got to
get stuff up there.
But then why?
(17:36):
I wanted to talk to the SpaceForce guy.
If I put a data center inIndiana and say North Korea
wants to blow it up, how arethey going to do that?
They're going to invade the USand march all the way to Indiana
.
Good luck with that.
If I put something in space,then they just send one of those
James Bond satellites and iteats it.
(17:58):
So now we need to defend againstthat.
So you've got this whole groupof all right.
Who are the companies that aregoing to be building these
things?
And then what we teach peopleabout themes is you've got to
look at it in layers.
So the first layer is all rightwho are the winners?
But then who are the suppliersto the winners?
(18:20):
Who are the suppliers to thesuppliers?
Who are the companies that aregoing to use this technology to
improve their revenues?
Who are the losers?
So you've got all right.
I mean, who are the companiestransporting stuff to and from?
Who are the next level defensecompanies building things that
are going to defend all thisstuff?
(18:40):
So that's a theme that I'mreally excited about.
Speaker 2 (18:44):
Yeah, so looking beyond, I remember during the
COVID times when space was allabout just trading a Virgin
Galactic, which didn't end up sowell for everyone who bought
back then.
But, matt, before we wrap up,where is the best place for
people to follow you or learnmore about what you're doing at
Tuttle Capital?
Speaker 1 (19:02):
Yeah, so my website is TuttleCapcom.
We do a daily newsletter aboutsome sort of heat formula
concept.
The signup is on there.
I'm pretty active on Twitter atTuttle Capital, so those are
probably the best places to findme Great, Matt Well, thanks for
joining me and thanks toeveryone for watching.
Speaker 2 (19:21):
Be sure to like, share and subscribe for more
episodes of Lead Leg Live.
I'm your host, Mal Schafer.
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