Global Food Risk: How Brazil’s New Potash Supply Could Reshape Fertilizer, Commodities, and Agriculture

In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Matt Simpson, CEO of Brazil Potash (NYSE: GRO), to break down how the Autazes project could transform fertilizer security for Brazil and shift the balance of power in global agriculture.

From navigating permits and construction milestones to securing long-term offtake agreements for more than 90 percent of expected production, Simpson explains how domestic potash supply could reduce Brazil’s reliance on imports and strengthen global food stability at a time when commodity markets remain volatile.

In this episode:
– Why fertilizer supply is tightening as global agriculture demand accelerates
– How domestic Brazilian potash could reduce geopolitical and logistics risk
– What the Autazes project means for future pricing, imports, and food security
– How infrastructure partnerships are cutting project Capex and speeding timelines
– Why growth in fertilizer demand could reshape commodities in 2025–2027

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Episode Transcript

SPEAKER_00 (01:12):
The the total cost to build our Ota's Posh project
is estimated about$2.5 billion.
So having a third party, in thiscase Fictor, fund our only
off-site infrastructure being a102-mile or$165 power line
through this boot style contracttakes a pretty decent chunk of
the capital off of Brazil Posh'sbalance sheet and gets us that
much closer to a fully fundedsolution.

(01:33):
What it also does is allows ourconstruction team to have a much
more concentrated effort in atight geographical area to focus
on the shaft sinking building ofthe processing plant and the
river barge port on time andcost.

SPEAKER_01 (02:02):
Right now, fertilizer markets are
tightening again.
Brazil just hit one of itsstrongest fertilizer import
months of the year, even asglobal tensions and supply
issues push producers to securemore stable and local sources.
That's what makes BrazilPodash's progress so important,
especially with the company nowpre-selling roughly 91% of its

(02:25):
expected production.
My guest today is Matt Simpson,CEO of Brazil Podash.
Matt, welcome to the show.

SPEAKER_00 (02:32):
Thank you for having me.

SPEAKER_01 (02:34):
So last week you announced that roughly 91% of
your expected production isalready spoken for.
What do you think is drivingthat level of buyer confidence
at this stage?

SPEAKER_00 (02:44):
Well, potash is one of the three key nutrients used
to efficiently grow food.
And Brazilian farmers areexposed because they import 98%
of their need.
So they have geopoliticalexposure, rail strikes, port
strikes, all that have occurredin the last few years when they
don't need to have this exposurebecause potentially the second
biggest basin in the world issitting in their backyard being

(03:04):
developed by Brazil Potash.
So by domestically sourcing thepotash, Brazilian farmers will
mitigate these risks in a marketthat's growing at around four
times the rest of the world onthe largest import base.

SPEAKER_01 (03:15):
Yeah.
So just uh speaking morespecifically for a moment about
uh Brazil potash in particular,you brought in a leadership team
with deep global fertilizerexperience.
How does that uh change the paceand scale of what you can
achieve as you move towardconstruction?

SPEAKER_00 (03:31):
Brazil Podash has really moved on from the
engineering phase, and now we'refully permitted for
construction.
And for us to maximize ourability to raise the
construction funding, we madesignificant changes to our board
and management to bring onindustry experts that have
unique relationships.
Mao Schmidt, our executivechairman, for example, is the
founding chairman of Nutrion,which is the largest market cap

(03:53):
fertilizer company in the world.
I think their market cap isabout 40 billion today.
And along with him, there's agentleman named Christian Jorg
that helped Mayo create Vitera,which they sold to Glencore for
about 7.3 billion.
And then once they sold Vitera,Mayo then joined Nutrion.
And Christian went to Salik,which is part of the Kingdom of
Saudi Arabia.

(04:14):
So he lived for about 10 yearsin Riyadh, so knows all the
Middle East funds extremelywell.
And then rounding out, our teamis uh Marcelo Lesser, who used
to head the World Bank's IFC inLatin America.
And then most recently, SergioLete joined us as our president
in Brazil, having raisedbillions of dollars to build

(04:34):
projects.

SPEAKER_01 (04:35):
So you you mentioned it there a little bit about
where you're at uh in terms ofnearing construction.
Uh you recently completedvegetation clearing at both the
plant and port sites.
How does that move the timelineforward?
And what's the next majormilestones that investors can be
watching for?

SPEAKER_00 (04:51):
Vegetation clearing is one of the key steps required
at most mining sites as aprerequisite to start
construction.
And for us, the next stepsinclude we are going to go
binding with a Brazilian companycalled Fictor, who plan to fund
and construct our power line,which covers about 200 million
of our construction cost.
We also expect Brazil'sgovernment to formally lock in

(05:14):
an exemption on import dutiesfor new equipment, which will
take another 100 million off ofour construction costs.
We're speaking to several groupsabout potentially following a
similar model to what we didwith Victor, which is called a
boot or a build-on operatetransfer contract, where a third
party completely funds thingssuch as our steam plant, our

(05:36):
river barge port, and the 20megawatts that we'll need for
construction power that becomesour backup power.
And then later in the year, it'sall going to be focused on
locking the anchor equity forconstruction and the debt.
And we already do have severalgroups that are covered under
NDA.
Some of them have even been tosite.
So there'll be lots of newscoming this coming year.

SPEAKER_01 (05:57):
So the MOU reduced close to$200 million from the
project CapEx and it got a lotof attention.
How does that change the projecteconomics and your path into a
faster build-out?

SPEAKER_00 (06:08):
The total cost to build our Ota's Posh project is
estimated about$2.5 billion.
So having a third party, in thiscase Fictor, fund our only
off-site infrastructure being a102-mile or$165 power line
through this boot style contracttakes a pretty decent chunk of
the capital off of Brazil Posh'sbalance sheet and gets us that

(06:28):
much closer to a fully fundedsolution.
What it also does is allows ourconstruction team to have a much
more concentrated effort in atight geographical area to focus
on the shaft sinking, buildingof the processing plant and the
river barge port on time andcost.

SPEAKER_01 (06:44):
So, Matt, just to elaborate a little bit further,
can you talk a little bit aboutthe debt and institutional
interest that uh Brazil Podashis seeing?

SPEAKER_00 (06:53):
So there's very strong interest from several
development finance institutes,export credit agencies, and
project finance banks to providethe debt needed for project
construction.
Some of these investors havealready even been to site, and
we're working towards enteringmandate letters that will, once
we complete the front endengineering design, be converted
into binding commitments forconstruction funding late next

(07:15):
year.

SPEAKER_01 (07:16):
And so just for a minute, I want to go back to
sort of where we started.
Brazil relies heavily onimported potash.
How big is the domesticopportunity if this comes
online?
And what role do you see Brazilpotash playing in that shift?

SPEAKER_00 (07:31):
So Brazil is the world's largest importer of
potash.
They account for about 22% ofmarket share.
And this is a market globallythat's about$20 billion a year,
growing at about 1.8%.
Brazil is growing at four timesthis rate, nearly 6.8%.
So by having a large-scaledomestic supply of potash in

(07:52):
Brazil, close to where thefarmers are located, it's going
to be tremendous our supplysecurity for Brazil and
therefore global food security.

SPEAKER_01 (08:00):
Yeah, and you mentioned there a little bit
about the community.
You've been expanding engagementwith the Mura communities and
signing workforce developmentMOUs.
How does that localparticipation support
longer-term scalability?

SPEAKER_00 (08:13):
There are two communities totaling about
40,000 people within about 12miles or 20 kilometers of our
project that have a very lowskill level and pretty low
relative standard of living.
So for us, it's very importantto create job communities
locally where people are goingto be most impacted by the
project's construction andoperation.

(08:33):
It also benefits the companybecause if we're able to hire
people locally that have deeproots in the community, it's
going to be much moresustainable, more committed
employees longer term.

SPEAKER_01 (08:42):
Yeah.
And so, Matt, just lastly, foranyone who wants to follow your
progress or connect with you andthe team, where's the best place
for them to go?

SPEAKER_00 (08:49):
Well, there's several places that people could
look, but our main one is ourwebsite, which is simply
BrazilPodash.com.
And on that website, you'll findlots of information about the
company, including our corporatepresentation.
And you'll also see as part ofthat presentation the outlook
for 2026.

SPEAKER_01 (09:05):
Fantastic.
Well, Matt, thank you so muchfor joining me.
And thanks to everyone forwatching.
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