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May 20, 2025 14 mins

Market veterans know that bull runs and corrections rarely travel in straight lines, and in this riveting conversation with Michael Gayed, we explore the subtle signals suggesting our recent market recovery might be more fragile than it appears. Michael, who accurately predicted the S&P's 20% drop earlier this year, walks us through the conflicting indicators currently puzzling even seasoned analysts.

What particularly stands out is the disconnect between rapidly recovered credit spreads and still-struggling small caps – a warning sign Michael believes shouldn't be ignored. Treasury yields remain stubbornly elevated despite easing tariff concerns, while the Japanese yen's strengthening since January suggests forces beyond trade policy may be driving market volatility. For anyone trying to read these complex market signals, Michael offers a refreshingly candid framework that cuts through the noise.

The conversation takes a fascinating turn when addressing gold's prospects, with Michael clarifying his controversial stance. Having been bullish since October 2023, he now sees gold transitioning from safety asset to momentum play – often a precursor to correction. Through behavioral finance principles like the disposition effect, he explains why gold could face a 10-20% pullback despite its long-term bull case remaining intact. Most provocatively, we explore what Michael calls "manipulation on a scale we've never seen before," where presidential tweets move markets and rhetoric trumps fundamentals. If you're navigating today's bewildering investment landscape, this episode provides the context and perspective to help you distinguish between market noise and meaningful signals. Subscribe now for more cutting-edge market insights that go beyond the headlines!

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Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:10):
Welcome back to Mel on the Street.
Today I have Michael Gayad backwith me again, the publisher of
the Lead Leg Report, macrovoice of reason or chaos,
depending on the market, and oneof the few people who called
the big pullback before the S&P500 dropped 20% between February
and April.
Thank you so much for joiningme today.

Speaker 2 (00:31):
I was also on a cruise saying you'd see the
biggest intraday turnaround inhistory, when the Dow was down
like 1,500 points and we hadthat huge move on that Wednesday
which was the low.
But yeah, I'm not keeping tabof that.
No, but I am because I rememberreading a lot of your posts on
X while you were on that cruiseship and the push-ups yeah, it

(00:52):
was great.

Speaker 1 (00:52):
it was great to watch .
So today I kind of want to getor one of the things I want to
get into is ask you is the worstbehind us?
Whether gold is sort of in ownwords, in my words of what you
said totally wrecked, and whatyesterday's new US-UK trade deal
tells us about where things areheaded for the US and for the

(01:15):
market.

Speaker 2 (01:16):
All right.
So a few things to unpack.
I've been pretty public in mybelief that we'll still see
lower lows and that what we sawoff of that panic low on
Wednesday, when I got stupidlybullish and very, very dramatic
on X, as I tend to because thealgorithm likes it, I think they

(01:38):
in quotes, the policymakers,trump basically just delayed
what could have been a veryserious week of margin calls by
lifting collateral values up,pausing the tariffs and causing
that that rip back.
I still think lower lows arelikely because it doesn't make
sense to me that credit spreadscame right back, that junk debt

(01:59):
totally veed, as if there is noslowdown coming, while small
caps are still nowhere near ashealthy as they should be.
If the tariff tantrum is indeedover and if the tariff tantrum
is over, then somebody has toexplain to me why is it that
10-year yields haven't dropped?
So in the initial phases ofthat decline, treasuries were

(02:20):
acting like the risk-off assetagain, which benefited my own
strategies and funds.
That flight to safety tookplace.
And then the latter part ofthat decline, yields rose
because suddenly everyonerealized well, wait a minute,
these tariffs are inflationary.
Well, if we're going to nowhave this supposed string of
deals coming and tariffs can beremoved, then those yields
should go back and drop.
And that's not happening.

(02:41):
They're actually quite stickyat these levels.
So that alone tells me thatwe're probably not done with
this.
Having said that, I could beobviously completely wrong.
I've been wrong plenty of times.
Before you mentioned the yencarry trade, I kept on saying
throughout this decline I don'tbelieve this is because of
tariffs.
I said this is because of Japan, and I said that because it's
not a coincidence that the yenstarted rallying really in

(03:03):
January and kept onstrengthening, which was what
you saw in the lead up to thereverse carry trade in August of
last year, and then you sawthese headlines about Japan
dumping treasuries.
So it's like I'm not disputingthat tariffs obviously aren't
part of this or that they aren'tinterconnected, but to think
that Japan wasn't some of thereason for the sell-off to me

(03:25):
doesn't make much sense.
Whenever the yen strengthensagainst the dollar, you see
weakness in equities.
Typically, whenever the yenweakens against the dollar, you
see strength in equities.
I mean that pattern hasn'tbroken.
So how much of this is reallyTrump versus just leverage and
the source of that beingproblematic?
So to kind of wrap all that up.
I think the broader point is wedon't know if we're really out

(03:47):
of this yet.
Typically, bear markets do havevery vicious rallies, which is
why I keep saying bear marketsmake fools of bulls and bears.
It's why you don't want toshort a bear market.
But we'll see, I don't.
But the valuation dynamichasn't been resolved for US
stocks.

Speaker 1 (04:03):
So, when you were thinking about if this is a bear
market rally, do you see newlows?
And I know you asked yourfollowers on Acts about what
they think if the lows of theApril lows are in, would you see
?
Or what would your gut tell youthat you're seeing new lows or
a return back toward I think itwas April, april 7th low.

Speaker 2 (04:22):
Yeah, I mean it's.
You obviously only know withhindsight I think it was April
7th low, yeah, I mean youobviously only know with
hindsight.
I think it's possibly new lows.
I've said before, though, thatif the lows are in, I think
small caps will rip higher,which maybe you're starting to
see some signs of, but not fully.
I think the real answer to thatquestion that was ultimately
dependent upon if Trump is smartand the question of whether

(04:44):
Trump is smart is a function ofone's political viewpoint.
Obviously, certainly in the USIf Trump is smart, he should
pivot the narrative from tariffs, and he should do so quickly.
And if he's smart and he doesthat and pivots the narrative
from tariffs to either tax cutsand or deregulation, then maybe
that becomes enough of a reasonfor equities to push to higher

(05:06):
highs, and that was the low.
So it's not clear.
I think a lot of this is goingto be dependent somewhat upon
whatever story Trump gets outinto the media, into the
business media side of things,just to take the distraction,
just to make a distraction offof the tariff dynamic, which I
think it's going to take a lotlonger than people realize the
UK deal is a joke.
I mean, first of all, we had asurplus with that to begin with,

(05:26):
I think, plans for a deal.
Nothing was really signed.
It's all bluster and it's likeI mean, if this is the best you
can do, good luck with China.
Yeah, I think China, ifanything is probably going to

(05:47):
mess with.

Speaker 1 (05:47):
Ask you about next, uh, the the uk deal, uh, that
the us signed yesterday not withwakanda, um, as you have to
have been hilariously joking,onx, but um it was.
It was kind of limited, it wasmaybe more symbolic.
Um, I wanted to ask you if youthink, is he just politically
posturing, or is this the startof some sort of real um trade
reset, that or that he thinkshe's going to do?

Speaker 2 (06:05):
You use an interesting word there which is
symbolic, because I keep goingback to you know, this guy is
not Trump, is a showman, right,and he, I think, does kind of
plan from that standpoint.
So he called a liberation day.
And I wonder if in his mindhe's trying to call the
liberation day because he wantsto announce a whole bunch of

(06:25):
trade deals on Independence Day,on July 4th, which sounds
ridiculous, but Trump, so I dosuspect that at least his hope
is there's going to be a bunchof, you know, a barrage of
positive news that he's going toput out so he can take credit
for and it's, you know, makeAmerica a great event.
July 4thuly 4th, liberation day, and now all these trade deals

(06:46):
are taking place.
I think it's gonna be harderthan than people realize in
terms of that taking place.
Um, but yeah, I, I I meanhonestly I think the whole thing
is a joke.
I'm not anti-trump by any means,uh, but I'm definitely not
pro-trump in the way that he'sgoing about certain dynamics and
I think people forget that youcan be supportive of your
president and still critiquetheir policies and the way they

(07:08):
go about things.
So again, I think deregulationbecomes sort of his card to try
to push equities higher.
But I got to tell you it's likeI get nervous when I see Trump
outright saying to buy stocks.
It's like the last time Trumpsaid anything about stocks yes,
it was the day before the lowSure, but prior to that it was

(07:30):
you basically rang the bell theNew York Stock Exchange at one
of the top.
So it's like so I even jokedabout that.
On X, are we going to enter aphase now where, if the stock
market goes down, you can sueTrump because he gave financial
advice?
I mean, this is like the kindof weird world that we're in.
I certainly hope that's not thecase.

Speaker 1 (07:48):
Portnoy was going to be in some sort of trouble for
insider trading and many of thecomments were like I don't think
that happens under Trump,because that it wouldn't make
sense that everyone needs to betreated equal like that.
But I wanted.
I wanted to turn now to goldand you've been saying, to quote

(08:10):
you, that gold is fucked.
They're wrong words.

Speaker 2 (08:13):
Is that what I'm saying?

Speaker 1 (08:15):
That was the word, that's what.
That's what I read.
What makes you say that?
And is this short-term view, orare you flipping long-term
bearish on gold and othercommodities?

Speaker 2 (08:26):
No, okay.
So let's set the recordstraight.
First of all, I use terminologylike that because the algorithm
likes it, so don't blame me forthe algorithm.
At the end of the day, you cancall me an engagement informer,
but the reality is you're tryingto get impressions, you do what
it takes and I'm sellingbusinesses, trying to get

(08:47):
attention around my content andthen, by extension, obviously,
my various business lines, andI'm definitely not an anti-gold
guy by any means.
I mean, I was screaming bullishgold, october 2023.
It was only about two months ago, admittedly, before this
progressive spike, when Istarted saying I think there's a
risk here that gold is shiftingfrom a flight to safety asset
to a speculative momentum oneand, by the way, that's verified
by the magazine coverindicators.
I think it was Barron or Forbesa couple of weeks ago had gold

(09:08):
on the front page.
So I think gold is next and thethesis is really that you're
going to have margin calls.
Then gold, because it's one ofthe few winners, will become a
source of liquidity as peoplemeet their margin calls by
selling their winners, not theirlosers.
That's called the dispositioneffect.
That's a very well-knownbehavioral finance dynamic, and

(09:29):
that gold will sell off to thelag which you haven't seen
because you don't really havethe margin calls, because it got
short-circuited obviously bythe move off of that April low.
But I still think there's arisk that gold does correct,
probably meaningfully 10%, 15%,20% maybe.
I don't think it's the end ofthe bull market in gold by any
means.
I've gone on record saying that.
I say that because I think it'smore likely than not that

(09:52):
equities are maybe in a lostdecade and I know that sounds
dramatic.
But look at the Russell 2000you're halfway through a lost
decade.
I'm always blown away by peoplethat think I'm a perma bear and
that I'm just like some guythat's anti-stocks.
If you just look at the purenumber of stocks in the US
market not market cap weighted,just the number of stocks which

(10:14):
include many more small capnames by definition there are
many more stocks that are backat 2021 levels than not, because
the Roth 2000 is there as anaverage right.
We're not market cap weightedthe way the S&P is, so it's like
permabear or not.
I mean.
The reality is it hasn't been ahealthy market for a while,
unless you've been in justpassive indices, which you can
say most people only care aboutthat.

(10:34):
But yeah, I do believe thatthat does matter.
Now, if that does matter, goingback to gold, if you're going
to be in somewhat of a lostdecade type of dynamic, then
gold should keep on gettingflows, because if you're in a
difficult environment forequities, institutional players
want lower correlation whilebeing long.
Only, there aren't that manyoptions.
Gold is one of them.

Speaker 1 (10:55):
Right, and we've talked about, or we've sort of
touched on, how differentpolicies, especially Trump's
policies, are shaping or workingwith the market.
Because the next thing that Iwant to ask about is how much
manipulation is there?
I know you've said that this ismanipulation on a scale that
we've never seen before.
As a fund manager, how much doyou have to think about how much

(11:18):
manipulation plays in to theother forces that are moving the
market?

Speaker 2 (11:24):
It's funny because, like people will say, well you
know, those who don't know howto trade will say it's based on
manipulation.

Speaker 1 (11:29):
Are you kidding me?

Speaker 2 (11:30):
Like you have the president's most important
person in the world telling youto buy stocks.
He's not.
He's playing off of words thatalgos are then using to go along
with.
Of course it's manipulated, butthe Federal Reserve manipulates
everything too.
They were designed to.
The whole purpose of theFederal Reserve Act in 1913 was

(11:50):
to manipulate financial markets,to not have another banking
crisis in 1907.
It's not a market that is freefrom that perspective.
Of course there's manipulation.
It's just now, it's much moreout in the open, which is
absolutely wild to me, that thisis taking place.
It's like you know what You'retelling me that people inside
the Trump administration didn'tknow that he was going to say
that on Tuesday into Wednesday,which was that low.

(12:12):
You don't think anybody boughtinto that.
And it's like of course this ismanipulation.
So it's extreme.
Of course this is manipulation.
So so it's extreme.
And I find it sad,unfortunately, that people are
more outraged by it.
But I'm not surprised.
Uh, just because of the waysociety has become.
You know, I think lessattentive, less intelligent,
reading comprehension level isas low as they are.

(12:33):
You know, talk about right, um,so so when you, when you're in
a market where it's driven bywords and not reality.

Speaker 1 (12:44):
You should really question how much time you want
to analyze anything yeah, um, Iknow you've been saying small
caps are going to show us what'sgoing to happen, and our
audience here at coca would lovefor that to happen.
Personally, I'm so excited tosee where you go and what you
announce next, and I'm going tobe following you on your journey
.
Thank you so much for joiningus today.

(13:05):
Wakanda forever.
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