Episode Transcript
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SPEAKER_01 (00:11):
Hey, folks, give us
a second.
Looks like people are startingto come in here to this webinar.
Uh, do me a favor for those thatare starting to trickle in.
If you're an advisor and you'rephysically at an office, I know
people don't think that actuallyhappens anymore, but it does.
Uh, do me a favor, tell yourother fellow advisors this
webinar is taking place.
It'll still be a uh a very goodconversation with Will Rind
talking about uh an asset classthat's doing pretty well.
(00:34):
Gold.
And uh in particular, their barETF, uh, which is really a
better way to play gold thansome of the other funds that are
out there.
If those are here for the Ccredit from the CFP board, do me
a favor, stick to the end of thepresentation.
I will email you towards the endof the presentation or after
after the end of thepresentation to get your CFP uh
number, first name, last name,all the good stuff I need.
But the key is you got to be onthe webinar the entire time.
(00:57):
Uh and if any of you want toinvolve, get uh get involved,
ask questions, get engaged, uhput it in the chat.
We'll do an interactive QA backand forth towards the end here.
Uh with all that said, my nameis Michael Gaia.
Uh this webinar is sponsored byGranite Shares.
Today we're going to be talkingabout gold, and I want to get
into it with my friend, Mr.
Will Rind, uh, who built kind ofa big company uh in Granite
Shares.
SPEAKER_00 (01:17):
Yes, sir.
Well, thank you, Michael, and ofcourse, thank you, everybody,
for tuning in today.
I think it should be a goodconversation around gold, is
something that although gold hasgone to an all-time high, uh,
it's not talked about perhaps asmuch.
And certainly not talked aboutas in previous cycles where gold
has hit an all-time high thatI've been involved in.
(01:37):
In other words, there's no, youknow, people screaming on CNBC
every five minutes that gold'sin a bubble.
You know, this has definitelybeen a silent rally.
And something that we'll getinto is maybe that's a sign that
we're only just getting startedhere, as opposed to uh this is
in any way a near the top.
But that is something that wecan discuss as we go forward.
(01:59):
So Gospel Slides here today, asper usual.
And as we go through here, thisis going to be a conversation
around gold and state of theprecious metals market uh more
broadly.
But just for those of you thatdon't know me, my name's Will
Rind, uh founder and CEO ofGranite Shares.
(02:20):
As it comes to goldspecifically, I've been involved
with gold for a long time in mycareer.
Um, originally evolved with anETF issuer uh out of the UK, uh,
where we were doing the firstgold ETF and precious metal,
more broadly commodity ETFs uhin that market, and then went on
to be the CEO of the GLD ETF,uh, the Spider Gold Shares with
(02:46):
the World Gold Council andpartnership with State Street,
and then launched Bar, our ownETF, um, back in 2017.
Uh, and we have this one of ourflagship funds here at Granite
Shares, you know, over a billionin assets.
So we've been involved with thegold market for a long time.
Um, a little about us as an ETFissuer, for those that view that
(03:09):
don't know.
Um, I found the company 2016.
We're based in New York.
Uh, so we've been going almost10 years now, um, but we're 11
billion uh in terms of assets.
We have multiple ETFs uh here inthe US, like over 40 here in the
US, uh, multiple products inEuropean markets, and a team uh
(03:30):
in Asia as well.
So lots of different things totalk about.
Um specifically, the bar ETF uhis our flagship gold ETF.
That's a physically backed goldETF with physical bars of gold
and a vault.
Um, the key proposition with baruh we'll get into is it's a low
expense ratio, 17 basis points,um, which makes it less than
(03:53):
half the cost of GLD, forexample.
And some of the key things thatwe also bring uh in terms of bar
is we have an underlyingcustodian, which is different to
some of the major gold ETFs.
Uh we hold the gold physicallyin London.
Um, those gold bars are auditedtwo times a year, one at random.
(04:17):
And we have the share pricebased on a tenth of an ounce of
gold as opposed to a hundredthof an ounce.
So it makes it easier to be putinto model portfolios where the
amounts uh that people arebuying are less.
And of course, like an ETF andspecifically gold, you have that
transparency with the bars,etc., listed on the website,
(04:39):
grantshares.com.
So with all of that, uh gold, aseverybody knows, has had a
pretty good run um this year.
So outperforming the marketconsiderably.
Uh gold is up year to date, Ithink, of you know, vis-a-vis
40% versus the SP 500.
(05:00):
Uh so incredible run.
And this is a run that um reallyhas been going on for the last
few years.
And this chart here obviouslygoes all the way back um to you
know the early part of lastcentury.
Um, and you can see gold pricesreally start to take off after
(05:21):
uh the gold standard was brokenum back in the early 1970s.
In other words, when the goldprice was decoupled from the US
dollar and became officiallyfree-floating on world markets.
And in that time, you can seethat the gold price has taken
off.
And in this century alone, uhthe price of gold has performed
(05:46):
very well.
And we'll get into some of thereasons behind that.
But, you know, again, this year,I think in particular, you know,
gold has a standout umperformance going to a new
all-time high, um, which we'veseen obviously over a few cycles
since the early 2000s.
Um, but this one, you know, muchmore significant price-wise than
(06:08):
ones before.
And then again, looking back insome periods uh in terms of
where gold shines, uh where goldhas done well, I mean, typically
these are periods where we havesome stresses in the economy.
Um, gold does particularly wellwhen there's a crisis.
This particular chart shows youall the way back to the Great
(06:30):
Depression, you have thestagflation era, the 1970s, um,
the tech bubble, then the 2000,the financial crisis, you know,
COVID, and then today.
And there's slightly different,different environments, but in
this particular case, um, thisis about where you have falling
(06:51):
or negative real yields.
And you know, indeed, thescenario we're in today is we
have falling real yields again,um, which is one of the many
factors which is propelling thegold price um to record highs at
the moment.
This particular chart shows uh a1978 going back all the way, a
(07:11):
stock market efficient frontieranalysis here, using uh for US
stocks the the Dow versus theinterest rates, uh, the 30 year.
And this is showing that anideal portfolio uh here from an
efficient frontier perspectivewould have an allocation to 62%
(07:32):
US stocks and 37.8% to uhlong-term treasuries, of which
that gives you a sharp ratio of0.57.
By adding in gold here, in thiscase, the efficient frontier
analysis suggests that theoptimal allocation is around 14%
(07:53):
uh gold.
So 55% stocks, 30% uh long-termtreasuries, and 14% gold, you
get an improved sharp ratio.
So in other words, you have aportfolio that has a better
risk-reward ratio by adding goldthan by leaving gold out.
I think most people know this,but uh one of the great things
(08:17):
about gold is it has little tono correlation with pretty much
everything, uh, assetclass-wise.
Most relevant to most of thepeople probably listening to
this call uh is going to bestocks.
And gold has a very, very low,practically zero correlation to
stocks and uh the majority ofbonds as well.
(08:42):
At different times, you know,you have commodities where you
have a mild positivecorrelation, but it's still
pretty low.
And I think, you know, in termsof gold acting as a diversifier,
a true diversifier in aportfolio, you know, the value
of a true diversifier issomething that really doesn't
have a correlation to the restof the assets in your portfolio,
which are most likely going tobe made up of stocks and bonds.
(09:05):
There's another chart here justshowing the gold price um versus
the 10-year real yield.
Uh, and you can see that again,you get an environment where the
gold price typically rises,where real yields are falling.
And again, that's the kind ofthe environment that we've been
in um this year.
All right.
(09:26):
In terms of um, oh, we're gonnago back there.
Maybe we should just talk aboutthe meat of the conversation.
Yeah.
Of course, why is gold so highat the moment and what are the
key factors driving it?
So we talked about real yields,and real yields ultimately is is
one part of the the equation.
But I think the bigger thingthat's going on here is that for
(09:51):
some time, you know, we've beenin this environment where
governments around the worldhave been increasing the amount
of spending and therefore theamount of debt that they've been
taking on, and that has extendedto you know the corporate world
and to private uh citizens aswell.
And so, in other words, thelevel of debt, but particularly
(10:12):
from the government perspective,is sitting at all-time highs as
we speak.
And the net effect of that isthat uh paper currencies, so
currencies issued by governmentsaround the world uh in the form
of, say, global M2, in otherwords, the amount of paper money
that's in circulation increasesyear by year.
(10:36):
And the correlation between thatand the gold price is pretty
strong.
In other words, gold is like anantidote to paper money.
And from that perspective, whenyou measure the value of a
dollar in terms of gold or thevalue of a paper currency in
terms of gold, we see that papercurrencies have lost almost all
(10:59):
of their value when measured ingold since the gold standard uh
ended in the early 70s.
And so at the moment, what Ithink is happening is gold has
become the de facto alternativeto the US dollar.
And we know the US dollar is theworld's reserve currency, is the
most important, most traded uhand held reserve asset.
(11:23):
Gold very recently surpassed theEuro in terms of the second most
held asset.
So up until literally a fewmonths ago, the Euro was
officially the world's secondmost held reserve asset.
And so that has now beensurpassed by gold.
So gold has become the de factoalternative to the dollar, and
(11:48):
there has been a super macrotrend over the last 10 years
plus of central banks around theworld buying gold and adding
gold to their strategicreserves.
So, you know, in a worldwhereby, or in a world where the
amount of debt keeps increasing,you know, the value of an asset
(12:08):
that doesn't have anycounterparty risk or credit risk
that can't be printed, um, andsupply is fairly limited and
historically increases by around3% per annum, but a fairly
constant rate, you know, is orhas become ever more valuable.
And I think to a certain degree,you see this in the Bitcoin
(12:31):
market as well, or in the in thecrypto market, but specifically
Bitcoin, that there's a similarnarrative around people looking
for an alternative, and you'restarting to think a little bit
about a endgame scenario for theamount of debt, you know, that
despite the best efforts of Dogeand all the other things, um,
(12:51):
you know, that that doesn't haveor didn't have an impact in
terms of the absolute amount ofdebt, and that continues to
rise.
So maybe just pause here.
But um, do you have any commentson that, Michael?
And let's uh talk about that alittle bit.
SPEAKER_01 (13:06):
Yeah, on big, it's
funny, as you're talking about
Bitcoin, I'll share my screenhere as well.
So if you see uh folks here,this is the ratio of Barb
divided by Bitcoin itself.
Uh going back to 2021, the ratiois the same today as it was back
in 2021, which means thatBitcoin and gold have actually
performed pretty much in linewith each other from those two
endpoints.
Um despite everybody saying thatBitcoin would replace gold,
(13:29):
gold's market cap is way, waybigger, right?
And continues to compound off ofthis.
Uh, are you surprised, Will,that in the digital world that
Bitcoin hasn't gotten moretraction relative to gold?
Because I gotta tell you, Ithink it's interesting that gold
and Bitcoin have kind of fare atthe same here.
SPEAKER_00 (13:46):
Well, I think maybe
to maybe to put it in another
way, you know, in in my mind,Bitcoin has had a huge amount of
traction.
Um, and you know, it's it's kindof remarkable, you know, how far
we've come in such a shortperiod of time.
Now, you know, part of the partof the reason for that is I
think, again, the the value thatpeople, and people have their
(14:08):
own reasons.
I mean, clearly there's a lot ofit is is purely speculative,
which you don't have to the samedegree in the gold market.
But leaving that aside, I thinkpart of the argument for for
owning Bitcoin is very similarto gold.
In other words, people valuesomething that is decentralized,
something that you know is notcontrolled by a government,
something that livesindependently from the
(14:31):
traditional financial system,uh, and of course is low or has
an has no correlation totraditional financial assets,
something which is portable.
And so I think the one of thethings that's missing clearly is
the official central banks orgovernments using Bitcoin as an
(14:52):
official reserve, which we knowhas happened in a couple of
small cases.
But I mean, you know, if if theUnited States was to start
officially uh adopting a Bitcoinreserve, then that would change,
change massively.
Um, but I still think thatirrespective, it's not an
either-or argument.
It's just it it's it's kind ofan interesting um you know, time
(15:14):
or point in time whereby youknow it increasingly is becoming
more and more valuable to havesomething that is genuinely
uncorrelated to to traditionalstocks and bonds.
And you know, the value of thoseassets is increasing, you know,
the scarcity of those, uh andtherefore, you know, the the
price keeps going up.
SPEAKER_01 (15:35):
So I actually didn't
know this.
That the uh the AUM in GLD islike 100x, right?
What's bars?
Like 127 billion and where's the1.2.
If I look at uh the ratio of barto gold, and again, this makes
sense because of the feeddifferential, bar has
outperformed GLD.
That ratio has trended higher.
And again, that makes sensebecause of the lower expense
(15:57):
ratio.
Um but there's all this stickymoney that's in GLD.
I'm just curious, given yourexperience in the ETF industry,
you know, when you have asuperior product like bar
relative to GLD, why aren't morepeople gravitating towards bar?
SPEAKER_00 (16:09):
I think it goes back
to, you know, one of the biggest
issues is that it goes back tothe chart that we showed like at
the beginning of the gold price,which is gold's been a one-way
trade.
I mean, with with the exceptionof obviously like any asset
class, you have a few dips, butit's basically been a one-way
trade for the last 25 years.
(16:30):
And so with that, the vastmajority of people that are
strategic, in other words,holding gold for a long time,
are sitting on big, big gains.
Um, so if you're sitting on biggains, then it's hard to sort of
realize that tax event uh tomake a move to another product
that's that's cheaper.
And so, you know, that I thinkis the single biggest reason
(16:52):
why, you know, bar's not 50billion in in AUM or whatever,
because uh it's hard when you'resitting on embedded gains um to
trigger that tax event whengold's just performed so well.
So there hasn't been thatopportunity to harvest losses in
the way that um you see in otherasset classes.
SPEAKER_01 (17:10):
It's interesting to
me just looking at GLD on white
charts for whatever it's worth.
When you look at uh which kindof goes to your point about the
excitement level, when you lookat the uh one-year fund flows on
GLD as a proxy for demand forgold ETFs, just give the sheer
size of it.
Looks like only 11.82 billion uhhave has actually gone in of net
(17:31):
crease, net new additions to theGLD.
I I would have thought it wouldbe much more uh given the
momentum and gold.
So it being just number wise,like you're not getting that
sort of euphoria yet.
SPEAKER_00 (17:41):
Absolutely.
Look, I think this is again,this is the silent rally, or
this is the the all-time high noone's talking about.
And it's just so I I can't thinkof certainly another um period
that I've been involved in wherethis has happened.
Um every time gold made all-timehighs, whether it was in the
(18:02):
mid-early 2000s, um, all the wayback to even around COVID time,
that you know, this wasfront-page news.
In every newspaper, this wouldbe CNBC talking heads, you would
have Jim Kramer screaming aboutgold being an all-time high, et
cetera.
This time it's nothing.
It's barely even mentioned.
(18:22):
And so I think that you youcouple that, which is purely
anecdotal, by the way, but withmore data-driven evidence that
you just presented.
Like, okay, flows are flows arepositive, but flows are nothing
compared to what we've seen inequity markets and otherwise,
that it kind of leads you to theconclusion that maybe we're in
the early stages or we'reearlier in the game than people
(18:45):
think, because that euphoriaisn't here, that mania isn't
here.
You don't have um that samelevel of interest that you might
have expected in a market whichyou know is showing very strong
price momentum.
So I do think it's it's a veryuh very different set of
circumstances this time aroundthan in previous uh instances
(19:09):
where we've seen gold go toall-time highs.
SPEAKER_01 (19:13):
How much of the uh
demand in gold is more central
banks, institutions versus theretail side?
We know retail's been drivingthe market, but they're not
really driving gold.
SPEAKER_00 (19:24):
Not really.
I mean, you know, gold has arelatively small, and that's
part of the attraction, um,relatively small demand
component from technology orfrom industrial purposes that's
you know fairly steady.
Um so the majority of demand forgold comes from investment andor
jewelry.
(19:44):
So jewelry is a big component,investment, and particularly
central banks, you know, buying,but the marginal buyer is the
investor, and the the marginalbuyer is the most important in
terms of moving the price.
Um, and you know, while thatmarginal buyer is certainly
buying gold, um, like we talkedabout, I mean, it's not to the
(20:05):
levels of mania that you mightexpect given where the price is
today and given where people areforecasting the price to go.
SPEAKER_01 (20:14):
Look at uh some of
the questions, some of the
comments, uh Jay saying cryptohas stolen the headlines.
Yeah, I think that's probablytrue.
Uh certainly sexier in theheadlines to talk about crypto
than gold, right?
SPEAKER_00 (20:25):
Until gold it has a
blow-off, in which case.
Well, I think I think that's inin a way that's always been the
case, right?
Because you know, the in a in afunny way, the more um or the
higher the Bitcoin price goes, Ithink the less attractive it is,
ironically, to people, becausefor a lot of those people that
(20:45):
are chasing price momentum, umyou know, the the chances of the
probability of Bitcoin doubling,you know, from here clearly
diminishes the higher the pricegoes.
So it comes back to an argumentwhich is never really made of
gold, albeit investors in goldhave done very well, which is
that you know, gold, the valueof gold um increases over time,
(21:10):
and that that people are buyinggold to make money, which is an
argument that never really getsmade, because the principal
value of gold is not that it's adefensive asset.
It's like buying insurance orsomething else, that you know,
you're you're you're holding inyour portfolio as a hedge or as
ballast against the other assetsin your portfolio, so that if
(21:32):
you have a market crash ormarket decline, et cetera, then
you have something that um willhopefully maintain its value.
And that is, in my mind, alwaysbeen the argument for having a
permanent piece of yourportfolio in gold.
And I think there's a differentart, there's a different
article, a different argumentthan the Bitcoin one.
However, the there are there aremultiple elements to the Bitcoin
(21:55):
argument, just like um there areto gold.
And I think part of thosearguments that involve having
something that's decentralized,something that is a store of
value outside of the financialsystem, um, are clearly
analogous to gold.
And that's you know one of theone of the reasons why they're
remaining popular.
SPEAKER_01 (22:13):
You mentioned the uh
relationship to fiat, the
dollar.
Uh, but there are a lot of otherinteresting things that are
happening broadly in the middlespace.
Uh and I think we should touchon platinum, which I didn't
realize today uh is in ANUI.
SPEAKER_00 (22:26):
Yes, that's right.
So, you know, it typically in aworld where gold is reaching
all-time highs, then you havethis sort of, dare I say it,
like the undervalued, overvaluedtype argument whereby it lifts
up other precious metals in thecomplex as well.
So most um noticeably you wouldhave silver prices rising, and
(22:50):
silver has started to break outas well.
But I think platinum, um, which,like you said, has also gone to
an all-time high, has been thebest performer year to date.
I think platinum's up 60% umyear to date versus 40% for
gold.
And you know, platinum's been ametal that um has really been in
the doldrums for quite sometime, and now looks like uh it
(23:12):
could be finally breaking out.
I mean, platinum's a crazy storybecause you know, you you have a
platinum-gold ratio.
So an ounce of platinum washistorically always more
expensive than an ounce of gold,and quite considerably so is
referred to as the gold-platinumratio of platinum premium.
And this became so sort ofembedded, uh, and it was always
(23:36):
so much the case that platinumwas more expensive than gold
that in the English language weassociated the word platinum as
being above gold.
So a platinum credit card wasbetter than a gold credit card,
et cetera, et cetera.
And it was it was sort of socommonly understood that that
was the case up until probablyum you know around the time of
(23:59):
the financial crisis, and theprice of platinum dipped below
the price of gold um and hasnever recovered since.
And this may be maybe the startof a situation where platinum's
starting to break out.
And you know, the the forcesaround that are quite similar to
(24:20):
what's driving gold, albeitplatinum has more, way more of
an industrial component thangold.
So platinum's used much more inindustry than gold is, but it
has jewelry demand like gold andit has investment demand in
gold.
But it's a metal that issuffering from a supply uh
demand deficit at the moment.
(24:41):
In other words, there's moredemand for the metal than there
is supply.
And that supply comes from mostuh from most of it comes from
South Africa, a little bit comesfrom Russia as well.
You know, places that clearlyhave been hit by supply
constraints, whether it be poweror labor shortages or strikes,
(25:01):
etc.
So it was an interesting timewhere you know, if if we weren't
talking about any specificsupply deficit or any specific
situation that would favorplatinum, we'll be talking about
a generic or general environmentwhere the price of gold goes up,
the price of silver also goesup, the price of platinum goes
up, the price of palladium.
(25:22):
But we have a enhanced situationfor platinum where there's also
some a structural deficit in themarket uh and more demand than
we have supply.
SPEAKER_01 (25:33):
The demand for
platinum, where what's what's
platinum specifically gettingthe most use in?
SPEAKER_00 (25:39):
It's mostly for
catalytic converters, so the
devices on your cars that uhclean the emissions from your
engine.
And specifically, if platinum ismore used on diesel vehicles
than gasoline.
Um, but increasingly, you know,the world is moving away from
traditional hydrocarbon uheconomy and from you know
(26:03):
internal combustion engines tonew technologies.
And what's interesting aboutplatinum is it's used in
hydrogen uh generatingtechnologies, so hydrogen fuel
cells specifically.
Um and in your hydrogen fuelcell technology will be one of
those technologies that we haveincreasingly or make use of
(26:24):
increasingly in a you know, anelectrified or electrification
scenario.
So batteries, clearly we allknow the story around batteries,
but there'll be other or thereare other competing technologies
to batteries, of which hydrogenfuel cells and hydrogen more
broadly are competingtechnologies, competing energy
sources, and platinum is neededfor um that process in terms of
(26:49):
turning hydrogen intoelectricity.
SPEAKER_01 (26:53):
An interesting
question from some of the
anonymous on the QA uh askingabout the paper market versus uh
the physical gold market.
Um I don't know if it'sconspiratorial or not.
I often see these sort ofinteresting questions about
paper versus not paper.
Uh maybe explain what what thedifference is and why people
focus on it.
SPEAKER_00 (27:12):
Yeah, I think, I
mean, again, broadly speaking,
um this refers to mainly theamount of derivatives
outstanding that are eitherdirectly linked to the price of
gold or indirectly linked to theprice of gold.
And by definition, they'remultiple in terms of size of the
(27:32):
actual physical backing.
So it's like you know, themargin on a futures contract and
the notional amount of thefutures contract being 10 times
the amount of cash that's that'ssitting on margin.
Um and this is you know, just Iguess a state of the paper, the
futures, the derivatives, marketfor gold.
(27:55):
It's always been always been thecase.
I think again, it goes back tothat's the system that we have.
And you know, that's the valuein all in owning physical gold
or physical gold ETF like bar,where the assets are not pledged
or they're not lent out, um,that they are what's called
(28:17):
allocated gold, which means thatthe property of the trust or the
ETF alone, and the ETF, thetrust is owned directly by the
shareholders.
So they're unencumbered.
And you know, to the extent thatthere's ever a meltdown in the
futures market, uh, and youknow, you don't have enough
(28:37):
physical gold to settle thoseoutstanding claims, then anybody
that owns allocated gold isseparate from all of that and
effectively probably has anasset that's worth a lot more in
that scenario because the valuepresumably would be going up.
Um so again, I think that comesdown to just the value of gold
(29:01):
more broadly and beyond justgetting price exposure.
A really important part of thegold argument is how you hold
it.
And you know, that's somethingthat we focus on in terms of
bringing making sure that thegold is all allocated gold
that's held specifically by bar,and then you know, providing
investors with that sort ofextra transparency and comfort
(29:21):
by having it audited by anindependent third party, not
just the the custodian uh thatowns the gold and having that
you know published on thewebsite, etc.
So I think it's something thatagain exists, but it goes to the
value of knowing what you ownand how you own it.
I really want to see this vault.
SPEAKER_01 (29:41):
Like I'm I'm
literally picturing just gold
everywhere.
It's kind of like a White House,right?
SPEAKER_00 (29:46):
I mean, look, I mean
I've been fortunate enough to be
in uh or or visited a number ofdifferent gold vaults and um you
know it it it they're very Isuppose impressive might might
be the right word to say.
It but um you know when you getinside one of these facilities
and see the amount of gold andtreasure more broadly that uh is
(30:09):
in these places, it's prettypretty mind-blowing.
So um yeah, gold certainly,there's just something about it
that you have you know piles andpiles of of gold.
Um it's as impressive as it asit you know can be in the
movies.
Yeah.
SPEAKER_01 (30:25):
What I find
interesting also about the the
macro environment is that stillnobody trusts bonds.
Right?
So they're looking foralternative yields.
We'll talk about yield boost asa way of doing that.
But you know gold has reallybeen the alternative to bonds,
right, in terms of that 60-40type of mindset.
SPEAKER_00 (30:43):
I mean, and and and
especially especially in an
environment where bonds weren'tdelivering any yield.
So, you know, sometimes you geta counter argument to gold.
And people say, well, you know,I want to own gold or I'd like
to own gold, but it doesn'tproduce a yield.
So it has no value in theportfolio for me because I'm
looking for yield.
(31:04):
And again, I understand thatargument, but people miss the
point if they define the valueof gold purely in terms of yield
or lack thereof.
But clearly, in an environmentwhere we had zero interest rates
and negative real rates, thenthat argument went away
entirely.
And you know, then it wasprobably more reversed in terms
of what was the value of whatwas the value of bonds, um,
(31:26):
particularly in a rising rateenvironment.
So I think you're right thatpeople increasingly have
questioned the role of bonds inthe portfolio.
And you know, again, going backto the fundamental issue with
the debt and deficit issues, youknow, the it and again, it's the
credibility ultimately ofgovernments' ability to honor
(31:51):
their longer-term financialcommitments over time.
And it's not just a problem fornow, it's a problem that people
looking out in the next 10, 20,you know, 30 years as the value
of interest, interest paymentsthat governments are making on
that debt outstanding increasesseemingly every year.
And and that that I think isgoes goes to the crux of you
(32:14):
know why gold has gone up somuch and why it most likely will
continue to do so.
SPEAKER_01 (32:21):
There was a chart
you showed before that showed a
gold performed during majorcrises.
Yeah.
This isn't a crisis uh in anobvious sense, so the debt
crisis has been talked about fora long time.
But um is gold now shifting froma crisis asset to more of a
momentum play, or is there stilla message there, you think?
SPEAKER_00 (32:43):
Well, the probably
the the strongest correlation
with gold, and it's a negativecorrelation, is against the US
dollar for obvious reasons.
And so in a world where therewas no crisis, the market was
going along as normal, if thedollar was depreciated or
declining, the value of gold wasrising, or most likely it will
(33:05):
be rising.
So you have a situation whereyou know, since early 1970s,
we've been through differentperiods of crisis, but the price
of gold has slowly increasedover time.
And part of that is to do withthe central debasement of fiat
currency argument.
(33:26):
And I sometimes say to people,think of the gold price rising
as not necessarily the goldprice rising, but more the US
dollar or paper currency valuesfalling.
And you know, sometimes it'sjust a reframing of the argument
or reframing of the outlook,which makes you see it from a
(33:48):
different angle.
So it's not necessarily the casethat gold is increasing in
value, it's that these papercurrencies are falling in value.
And that's kind of the corethat's going on.
And of course, we have periodsof crisis, periods of market
dislocation, panics, manias, etcetera, where gold provides
additional um value add to aportfolio.
(34:10):
But I think in its simplestform, if you look at a chart of
gold versus the dollar back tothe early 70s, you see that the
value of the dollar hasdecreased by almost 100% at this
point when measured in gold.
And that's that's really, Ithink, you know, what people are
(34:30):
trying to stop or trying tohedge themselves against when
they're buying gold.
It's the purchasing power andpreserving that.
SPEAKER_01 (34:41):
The question from
George, I want to expand on, uh,
because I think it'sinteresting.
What happens next when gold, uh,with gold when interest rates go
down?
Now I think we have todistinguish between which
interest rates and gold in whichcurrency, because it's more than
just a US dynamic, right?
Gold in every currency has beenrising, uh, and even those rate
those rates have been falling orhaving different time frames,
(35:04):
right?
Than hours, different cycles.
SPEAKER_00 (35:07):
You know, the the
the classical answer to that
question is that the price ofgold goes higher.
But I think the the moreimportant um observation is that
you know, gold has, I don't wantto say entirely because it
wouldn't be true, but I thinkgold has in some respects, you
know, decoupled a little bitfrom its historical relationship
(35:33):
with interest rates.
In other words, up until the Fedofficially started to cut rates,
we were still in the environmentwhere we were raising rates and
the price of gold was going up.
Now, that's very unusual in ahistorical context.
Um and I think again, the theanswer to that lies not just in
the inflation um that is presentin the economy, but again, it's
(35:57):
the it's the bigger fear ofwhere this is all going in terms
of the amount of debtoutstanding, the deficits, the
money printing from governmentsaround the world and the
unsustainable uh obligationsthat that they've put themselves
in.
So, you know, my my sort ofresponse to that is that I think
it's good for gold.
(36:17):
You know, certainly wheninterest rates come down, you've
seen a little bit of thatalready.
But um, the interest rateargument, I would probably make
the case is less important thanit perhaps once was for where we
are today.
SPEAKER_01 (36:31):
What's interesting
to me is that uh gold has done
better than the SP.
And yet the SP gets the passiveflows, the automatic buying from
the 401ks.
So you've got gold demandoutpacing the automatic flows
that were going into the watermarkets.
I mean, that's actually prettyremarkable.
And it's still about to yourpoint talked about as much.
SPEAKER_00 (36:51):
Yeah, and again, I I
think, look, we we have to be
honest, and just at the end ofthe day, everybody on planet
Earth knows what gold is, butthe vast majority of people
don't invest in gold.
And if they do invest in gold,it's a small part of their
portfolio allocation.
That's just the way it's been.
(37:11):
Um, and it's a similar, similarphenomenon with Bitcoin.
That, you know, your your yourclassic institutional argument
right now is put 1% of yourportfolio in Bitcoin.
That might even be too much forsome people.
But um that's a tiny amount.
And so the vast majority ofassets are going into
traditional stocks and bonds andare not going into gold.
(37:34):
And again, that's another theball case for uh gold in part is
that supply, basic supply-demandargument that if you had a major
asset allocation shift um acrossglobal portfolios of global
assets more broadly, and gold'smarket share, if you want to
look at it, that increased from,let's, for argument's sake, say
1% to 2%, then the amount ofdemand that that would create,
(37:57):
you know, would would put youknow huge pressure on the price,
output pressure.
SPEAKER_01 (38:01):
So you said earlier
that gold does not have yields,
it obviously doesn't attractcertain investors.
But you can create yield uh inthe options market with certain
strategies that Grant Shares isdoing.
So I feel like we should touchon the yield boost fund family.
And just to put a uh bow onthis, bar makes sense.
Obviously, it's a better playthan GLD just from a pure
expense ratio perspective.
You can see that from therelative chart.
(38:22):
And I think if you're bullish ongold very long term, bar is the
way to play it.
SPEAKER_00 (38:27):
Yeah, I think look,
the the message, I think
everybody should own a portionof gold in the portfolio.
It's an asset that has performedwell over time.
I wouldn't look at it as a getrich quick scheme.
It's definitely a more defensiveasset than you know offensive,
(38:50):
but the value is you know, thevalue is clear, or should be
hopefully clear for all to see.
Um interesting point about yieldbecause there have been a number
of uh attempts over the years toto sort of create yield out of
gold, and we we've you know beenasked a number of times to do
that.
And I think I always come backto this idea that gold is a
(39:13):
funny asset in that sometimesyou get people that hate gold.
And it's different to otherasset classes because even if
you don't like it, we very, veryrarely come across people
willing to short gold.
So, in other words, people canbe bearish on gold or they might
hate gold altogether.
(39:33):
They'll never short it.
So they just don't want to ownit.
And I think that comes a littlebit in the yield argument where
ultimately either you're lendinggold to produce a yield or
you're selling an option againstgold to generate yield.
And I think part of that goes tomaybe the reason why those
products haven't been aspopular.
(39:55):
It's because people just want tobuy and hold.
And you know, they're notnecessarily interested in
lending out their gold ortrading around it.
It's more a defensivelonger-term play.
But for those looking for highyields, you know, certainly the
yield boost range that we offeris absolutely where those yields
(40:16):
can be found.
And those are options-basedincome ETFs, weekly uh income
payers that can generateexceptionally high yields from
selling options on typicallysingle underlings, but we have
uh index-based underlings aswell, um, which have proven
very, very popular for thisparticular market or this
(40:40):
particular market environment.
And I think one of the reasonsfor that, which is related to
the gold argument, is this ideaof a nest egg, a safe haven,
whatever you want to call it.
And increasingly I hear fromcustomers on the yield boost
side is people in North Americatypically just have one income
(41:02):
stream.
They rely on one income stream,and that's their job.
And the question is, whathappens if you lose your job?
Or what happens if one day youcan't rely on that income
stream?
And I think just like gold, thatyou have an insurance policy for
the value of your portfolio,ETFs, the things like yield
(41:23):
boost, are increasingly becomingimportant for people that want
to manufacture a source ofincome or a stream of income
outside of their job.
Um, and that is something Ithink is becoming increasingly
popular, particularly among theyounger generations.
So I think, you know, babyboomers are in a very envious
(41:45):
situation where majority havedone that anyway over time.
But, you know, this is aboutcreating peace of mind, um, an
income stream that you can relyon if something was to happen to
your primary income stream, um,all it buys you buy you time in
terms of thinking of what to donext.
So an interesting, aninteresting idea.
(42:06):
Increasingly, we're getting alot of feedback from people that
are interested in doing that.
SPEAKER_01 (42:09):
Distribution rates
have been uh eye-popping on
those yield boost funds.
The mechanics of it aredifferent than other uh
strategies that sell options,right?
SPEAKER_00 (42:19):
Yeah, for the most
part, I think um you know people
are familiar maybe with theconcept of a covered call uh
strategy, which is you knowselling a call option on an
underlying asset.
Um in the case of yield boost,the strategy is slightly
different.
We sell a put option that givesyou economically the same
exposure.
You're selling an option andgetting a premium.
(42:41):
The difference is that incovered calls, traditionally,
there's no downside protection.
So the underlying goes down, youget exposure to 100% the
downside.
In yield boost, we actually buya put option as well.
So that offers some downsideprotection.
So you're you're engineering aput spread, um, which is the
combination of selling a putoption to generate yield with
(43:04):
buying a put option to get somedownside protection.
SPEAKER_01 (43:07):
I love the idea of
uh PLTM on the plantum side,
bar, and a couple of these yieldboost funds.
That's a very alternative mixthat could perform quite
differently and quite betterthan SPY.
SPEAKER_00 (43:18):
Yeah, and I think,
you know, again, we're
increasingly seeing um peoplelooking outside the traditional
realm.
You know, not just it's not justa question of people being, you
know, buying, I would say, like,you know, 10 years ago, people
were probably buying a genericmutual fund, which was styled or
labeled as growth and income.
(43:39):
And actually what they got wasvery little growth and very
little income.
And so now with the ETF market,you get this
hyper-specialization orhyper-personalization of
investment strategies wherebyyou can target very precisely,
like I want something that isvery growth-oriented on the one
hand, or I want something that'svery income-oriented, or I want
(44:02):
physical gold, or I want youknow, exposure to oil, whatever
it may be.
But you get this um, you know,very, very precise series of
investments that people canmake.
And the the modern portfolio isincreasingly made up of these
specialized um applicationsversus a much more generic
(44:24):
flavor of years past.
SPEAKER_01 (44:27):
Uh by the way,
folks, again, for those that
want to see credit, I will emailyou after this webinar, get your
information, submit to the CAPboard.
Um we're uh we're towards theend of the webinar here.
Will, what other key takeawaysuh do you think the listeners,
the attendees here should payattention to when it comes to
bar, platinum, uh markets,yield, anything and everything?
SPEAKER_00 (44:46):
I think the main
thing is just to be aware.
I mean, if we if we take awayone thing, just be aware of
what's going on with gold.
And more importantly, I thinkwhat's going on with the other
precious metals, um, with silverand platinum.
Because in an environment wherethe gold price continues to
rise, you know, these metals canalso do well in that
(45:07):
environment.
And platinum uh is in aparticular interesting
situation.
But I think it's really just tocast some awareness on a section
of the market that doesn't gettalked about as much as it
perhaps should, um, given thefact that it's an all-time high.
And um to really, I think,question uh what people own in a
(45:28):
portfolio, and they're havingthe role of something like gold
in a portfolio, which canprovide a form of insurance, but
a ballast diversification toother traditional asset classes,
particularly in a world whereseemingly global debt keeps
increasing, and there doesn'tseem to be that sort of
willpower from any particulargovernment to do something
(45:50):
meaningful about it.
SPEAKER_01 (45:51):
There aren't too
many guarantees in our business,
but uh two things you canprobably guarantee are debt's
gonna keep rising, and bar has alower expense ratio than GLD.
So go with bar as your goldexposure.
Uh and everybody again, thanksfor attending this webinar.
Hopefully you enjoyed it, andwe'll see you all on the next
one.
Appreciate it.
Yeah, thanks everybody.
Appreciate it.