LiveSquawk Market Talk

Guest Sam Cutler discusses why markets hit near record highs despite looming EU tariffs of 15-30% by August 7th, as Trump's negotiation tactics make moderate tariffs feel like wins. His "art of the deal" approach started with triple-digit threats, making 15% look reasonable to both markets and trading partners. But division among EU members could complicate the response strategy.

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With CPI data that could derail any September cut hopes and the specter of the transitory mistake still haunting the Fed, Powell faces an impossible balancing act. Find out why the FOMC might stay frozen through October, even as markets desperately want relief.

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Guest Guenter Grimm joins to discuss why the 15% tariff template from Japan could be the eurozone's best-case scenario, but what if Trump delivers something worse? With 20% tariffs marking 'bad deal' territory and 30% spelling disaster, the ECB's September cut plans hang in the balance. The noise-to-information ratio from Washington has never been higher—and neither have the stakes.

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Christine Short reveals why Q2 S&P 500 earnings growth expectations dropped from 9% to 5%, marking the lowest in six quarters. Discover why banks are setting the tone for earnings season and how IPO resurgence with companies like Circle up 500% signals broader market confidence.

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Beat Nussbaumer examines why Trump's new 35% Canadian tariff and August 1st deadline triggered "very muted" market reactions despite aggressive trade measures. Learn why the dollar's downtrend has "got a little bit stuck" and why traders are shifting from preemptive to reactive strategies.

Beat Nussbaumer of https://macrobeat.co.uk

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Sam Cutler reveals why May's employment beat is heavily distorted by government jobs with 73,000 government hires masking cyclical job weakness. Learn why the debt ceiling resolution requires $600 billion in new Treasury issuance and why markets face potential weakness around August 20th.

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Sam Cutler analyzes the market impact of US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities while examining the broader dovish shift across central banks. Learn why oil's initial 5% surge retreated to equilibrium and why the Fed's "dots" showing two cuts disappointed despite market expectations for just one.

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Guests Joseph Choi and Mike Zaccardi examine why a rate cut is unlikely amid concerning job market data including continuing claims near 2021 levels. Plus, why Trump's calls for 100-250bp cuts are very shortsighted and potentially economy-crushing.

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Guests Mike Brown and Ryan Littlestone analyze why oil jumped 8-9% and "everyone's gone running back to the dollar" amid Middle East tensions. Plus, discover why UK GDP's 0.3% April decline reflects "payback" from Q1 frontloading and signals deeper economic challenges ahead.

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Guest Sam Cutler joins Harry for weekly review and what to keep an eye on next week. While US payrolls beat at 140K, discover why "headline numbers can be pretty deceiving" with net gains of just 14K over three months after revisions. Plus, how the Trump-Musk public spat created market volatility despite being dismissed as "two grown men arguing."

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Chris Stadele explains copper's "weird" market dynamics while providing new Treasury price projections as futures roll to a new prompt month. Learn why recent data revisions (April jobs cut by 30K) reinforce his advice to "not chip anything in stone nowadays" amid volatile conditions.

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Guest Guenter Grimm explains why Eurozone inflation falling to 1.9% "basically all but guarantees a cut today." Also discover why Trump's steel tariff hike to 50% makes the ECB decision easier and why central banks are operating in "purely reaction mode" amid unprecedented trade uncertainty.

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Chris Stadele shares why contrarian bond market positioning could be profitable despite widespread negativity following Moody's downgrade. Plus, discover which agricultural market is getting "absolutely pummeled" and why three-day weekends historically mark turning points for market trends.

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Chris Stadele unpacks why BYD's potential Chilean mining investment may not be a good idea based on historical precedents. Plus, discover what's "alarming and perplexing" about companies abandoning forward guidance despite seemingly calmer markets and reduced tariffs.

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Guests Sam Cutler and Jamie Dutta break down why April's 2.3% headline CPI could be the year's low before tariffs push inflation back above 3%. Learn why Fed rate cut expectations have shifted from June to September and potentially December amid the challenging balance of faster inflation with a weakening economy.

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Chris Stadele shares insights from energy analyst Doomberg on crude oil's trajectory while explaining his cautious stock market stance. Plus, learn why Powell mentioned "uncertainty" at least 15-20 times in his press conference and why India-Pakistan tensions remain an under-discounted global risk.

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