Eurodollar University

Commodities are going nuts right now, with copper now parabolic joining silver on the crazy train. Gold is lagging behind both, which is not a good sign for each’s ability to stay on the upside. Meanwhile, at the complete other end of the commodity spectrum is oil, not just in terms of prices but key spreads in Middle East markets. One of those just flipped for the first time in years, signaling growing worries about globa...

Loss of momentum isn’t just happening in the US, it is very well synchronized globally with practically the same pattern showing up everywhere. Updates from neighbors Canada and Mexico show a deepening downturn at the end of last year, especially Mexico putting up its deepest contraction since April. Over in Europe, Germany fell back bringing Italy down with it. Plus, global bellwether Switzerland experienced its own “unex...

The number of legendary investors calling this an AI bubble continues to climb, with Howard Marks, co-founder of Wall Street giant Oaktree flatly stating if AI isn’t conforming to the historical bubble pattern, it will be a first. But there are some key differences within that pattern that just aren’t being fully appreciated. Starting with how this AI bubble isn’t actually about the stock market. 

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Bull steepening on the Treasury curve, falling energy prices especially gasoline, the final look at the US economy in 2025 shows it losing momentum again as the new year begins. In fact, even mainstream Economists, the most optimistic bunch you’ll find, they’re growing concerned again, with Moody’s chief economist saying, quote, “nothing else can go wrong” because in his words, we’re already on the edge of recession. 

Eurod...

There was an explosion, a record spike – and it’s not even close - in lending by European banks to European shadow banks in October and November. This spike in European bank lending wasn’t some newfound enthusiasm to take on risks. It was emergency lending, a shadow bank shadow bailout which was every bit the other side of the US$ repo tightness I’ve been telling you about. This surge in shadow bank borrowing in euros show...

The Fed is going to need some more not-QE and fast. We’ve got the year-end surge in repo borrowing at its window that is already way more than expected. At the same time, front end Treasury bill yields tumble in what is looking more like collateral scarcity along the lines of repo fails. Plus, the rest of the yield curve spent the entire fourth quarter – doing nothing. Literally nothing - and that’s huge. 

Eurodollar Univer...

Massive protests have broken out in Iran as the economy there implodes. This is no longer an uncommon occurrence as we’re seeing more signs of the most dangerous phase of the economy. Spurred largely by younger generations who have born the brunt of economic suckitude their entire lives, political upheaval is spreading and intensifying – maybe presenting opportunity but either way it is, by far, the greatest risk the world...

Repo fails just exploded, coming in at the highest weekly total since 2022. And this isn’t even year-end. This is mid-December. It’s the flat Beveridge economy that is exposing cracks in the credit markets. And along those lines, we’ve got an update on the Tricolor debacle and how it was actually uncovered that will knock your socks off u But it also does a really good job of explaining why there is so much risk aversion e...

CarMax is back as a microcosm of the entire consumer economy. The company stumbled back in the spring then at the end of summer declared – no big deal - everything was turning around. Instead, not long after management eventually admitted it didn’t turn around which, this past week, was totally confirmed when CarMax reported sales that had basically crashed during the quarter. 

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The Bank of Japan keeps hiking its policy rate, Japanese bond yields continue to rise, yet no matter how high interest rates go over there the weaker the Japanese yen seems to get. And no one can figure out why. The government is stumped. Central bankers can only complain. And the yen is not the only one, but is a critical example of what everyone leaves out because they don’t really know what they’re looking at, or even l...

Repo fails, a measure of collateral flow throughout the entire financial system, soared to more than $300 billion as of the middle of December. It was the highest for any non-quarter end week going back to June 2023. At the same time, borrowing from the Fed’s repo facility is way up again as investors refuse to buy the spin from private credit that their portfolios are just fine and from central bankers who say the same th...

US GDP utterly crushed it in Q3 and that was following Q2 when output supposedly was well more than expected, so two quarters in a row of booming numbers. So why isn’t anyone buying it? To begin with, just look at gold and silver. Safe haven buying is literally off the charts. Bond yields didn’t react at all. And consumer confidence keeps falling deeper into recession territory.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Ana...

Back in October, foreigners sold a massive $61.2 billion in LT UST assets, the most since April. While that may sound like the “sell America” and Treasury rejection narrative from the summer, it’s actually proof that the Fed’s bank reserves are irrelevant. Remember October? Repo rates soaring. Use of the Fed’s repo facility skyrocketed. Cockroaches and garbage lending. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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Blue Owl is back, the beleaguered alternative fund manager making news this time by refusing to partner back up with beleaguered former AI bubble star Oracle. This is big, especially since before now Blue Owl and Oracle worked together on seemingly everything. We’ve even got Tether’s CEO feeling the winds shift, admitting how Bitcoin’s struggles, for example, are a reflection of both the credit cycle and bursting AI anxiet...

Miami leads the nation in home de-listings, that is number of sellers who realize the housing situation is bad and getting worse, therefore simply pull their property off the market. De-listings nationally have soared this year, led by Miami and Florida. It wasn’t supposed to be like this. Sellers came back into the market thinking lower interest rates were going to lure buyers. Why wouldn’t they? That’s what everyone says...

Tariff inflation continues to go down in flames, yet central bankers refuse to let it go. The US CPI report for November was released today and the details should help put all this to rest – especially alongside the payroll numbers from earlier in the week. However, over in Europe both the ECB and Bank of England claim they need to be vigilant about tariff inflation at the same time job losses and unemployment pile up even...

The BLS confirmed the US labor market has indeed entered flat Beveridge territory with profound implications. What are they? What does this mean moving forward? Join me at 1:30pm ET to find out.

Also, join me later tonight for a very special webinar where we are going to be doing a COMPREHENSIVE review of on set of consequences from flat Beveridge: cockroaches and the credit market cycle. We'll go over all the smoke rising ...

Chinese investment crashed yet again in November, the second straight month of bigtime declines. Only this time FAI was joined by consumer spending. Retail sales over in China also crashed last month, dropping by almost half a percent in November alone. That’s enormous. It follows terrible data on household lending and bank credit. All of it points to an increasingly familiar topic and condition: China big economic slide i...

So, Jay Powell just casually strolled to the podium at his press conference last week and announced the Fed now believes the US has been losing jobs at a rate of 20,000 per month. From strong and resilient to solid to, ah, so what we’re now shedding jobs by the tens of thousands per month. Do you see it yet? The Treasury curve does, which is why it is moving into its final form in this long un-inversion process, with the b...