Eurodollar University

Macy’s is the latest retailer to admit to struggling in the current economic climate, closing several of what it calls fulfillment centers, basically warehouse facilities in Connecticut and Oklahoma and shedding thousands of those jobs. That comes in addition to even more store closings across the country. Why? Because only the wealthy are spending so the company wants to focus as much as possible on that segment. Macy’s i...

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Chinese retail sales just did something they’ve never done before outside of the lockdowns. At the same time, capital investment continues to legitimately crash, December was third month in a row...

What is going on with Freddie Mac? The Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, which is Freddie’s official, has seen its stock utterly pummeled this past week, crashing by 25%. Since Freddie is one of the mortgage giants, this isn’t just some run of the mill equity. The story here appears to be tied up in a number of different angles, from GSE QE to its IPO, but the themes we keep coming back to are concerns over its cash ...

Every financial crisis generally takes place in three steps. And while there aren’t bright, clear lines of separation between them, each one does have unique characteristics that allow us to get a sense of where things stand in the process. That’s the thing, cycles are processes and as this one might go through all three steps, each one represents an escalation in that process. We’re in Stage 1, that’s just the start. Stag...

Today we’re going be unpacking the latest from closely watched indicators out of China: bank lending data, household credit, the movement of the yuan, and what a single real estate developer—China Vanke—tells us about debt and payments right now. Bank lending in 2025 fell to the lowest since 2018 largely because household lending utterly collapsed. Yes, it collapsed last year. 

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The Japanese yen keeps tumbling and as it does it is tanking the bond market over there. What we have is the first case of a currency value setting interest rates, with, of course, the Bank of Japan helplessly caught in the middle. That helplessness is reinforced by the fact Japan’s currency is being closely paralleled by South Korea’s and others across Asia. The tumbling won and yen have led to government calls for string...

JP Morgan missed on its earnings after failing to sell as many bonds as it was expecting for its customers. At the same time, Jamie Dimon, the bank’s CEO, he of cockroach fame, was forced to acknowledge how the labor market had softened before then going on to describe Goldilocks anyway. This is something that has come up in a couple of other sources already, not Goldilocks though that is the Fed’s official position, too. ...

Almost 40% of Canadian real estate funds have restricted access to investor funds, and that includes potential payouts. It’s a sign of how deep the housing bust in Canada has gotten to be, but also applies to the situation that’s spreading across global markets where it comes to the shadow bank matter. In fact, the UK’s house of lords urged the Bank of England to look into private credit risks “as a matter of urgency.”

Euro...

Call it GSE QE. The same day it was reported US housing construction fell to the lowest since 2020, the Trump administration announced it was going to direct the housing GSEs, Fannie mae and Freddie Mac, to buy $200 billion in mortgage securities. The idea is that those purchases will reduce mortgage borrowing costs and offer some aid to struggling households who might then consider buying a house previously out of their r...

US consumers have basically stopped using their credit cards. According to the Fed’s latest data, revolving consumer credit declined again, the third time over the last seven months. And one of those other three was basically zero. There has been a clear change in attitude which means Americans aren’t just feeling pessimistic, they’re taking action about it. That is why consumer revolving credit is a critical cyclical sign...

Blue Owl, a name we’ve gotten to know for all the wrong reasons, has been forced to come clean after getting sued by pretty much every class action securities lawyer in America, not only into admitting there was a wave of withdrawals but also promising to accommodate them over and above what it normally would. Not only does that further confirm the First stage of the credit cycle reverse, it actually sets up the second sta...

This is simply insane – new car sales among American households making $75k or less have crashed by 30% since 2019. Car prices soared. Incomes didn’t. They can’t afford a new car. But it’s not just the lowest incomes. Those making between $75k and $150k have bought 7% fewer cars than in 2019. This is a lot more than the K-shaped economy and to call it an affordability crisis seriously understates the problem. 

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Commodities are going nuts right now, with copper now parabolic joining silver on the crazy train. Gold is lagging behind both, which is not a good sign for each’s ability to stay on the upside. Meanwhile, at the complete other end of the commodity spectrum is oil, not just in terms of prices but key spreads in Middle East markets. One of those just flipped for the first time in years, signaling growing worries about globa...

Loss of momentum isn’t just happening in the US, it is very well synchronized globally with practically the same pattern showing up everywhere. Updates from neighbors Canada and Mexico show a deepening downturn at the end of last year, especially Mexico putting up its deepest contraction since April. Over in Europe, Germany fell back bringing Italy down with it. Plus, global bellwether Switzerland experienced its own “unex...

The number of legendary investors calling this an AI bubble continues to climb, with Howard Marks, co-founder of Wall Street giant Oaktree flatly stating if AI isn’t conforming to the historical bubble pattern, it will be a first. But there are some key differences within that pattern that just aren’t being fully appreciated. Starting with how this AI bubble isn’t actually about the stock market. 

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Bull steepening on the Treasury curve, falling energy prices especially gasoline, the final look at the US economy in 2025 shows it losing momentum again as the new year begins. In fact, even mainstream Economists, the most optimistic bunch you’ll find, they’re growing concerned again, with Moody’s chief economist saying, quote, “nothing else can go wrong” because in his words, we’re already on the edge of recession. 

Eurod...

There was an explosion, a record spike – and it’s not even close - in lending by European banks to European shadow banks in October and November. This spike in European bank lending wasn’t some newfound enthusiasm to take on risks. It was emergency lending, a shadow bank shadow bailout which was every bit the other side of the US$ repo tightness I’ve been telling you about. This surge in shadow bank borrowing in euros show...

The Fed is going to need some more not-QE and fast. We’ve got the year-end surge in repo borrowing at its window that is already way more than expected. At the same time, front end Treasury bill yields tumble in what is looking more like collateral scarcity along the lines of repo fails. Plus, the rest of the yield curve spent the entire fourth quarter – doing nothing. Literally nothing - and that’s huge. 

Eurodollar Univer...

Massive protests have broken out in Iran as the economy there implodes. This is no longer an uncommon occurrence as we’re seeing more signs of the most dangerous phase of the economy. Spurred largely by younger generations who have born the brunt of economic suckitude their entire lives, political upheaval is spreading and intensifying – maybe presenting opportunity but either way it is, by far, the greatest risk the world...