Eurodollar University

The most important funding system in the world is flashing warning signals. Most people won't notice until it's too late.

I'm hosting a free webinar to break down what's happening and what it means for your portfolio.  https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/risks

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Automotive insurance claims are estimated to have dropped around 9% so far this ye...

The yen has made a huge move over the past seven months and no one can figure out why. According to every mainstream economic theory, JPY should be soaring not sinking. It’s got the government in Tokyo hollering about currency intervention claiming there is no fundamental reason for the yen’s plight. Except, there is and we just got more confirmation as household spending there utterly plunged in September and October. 

Eur...

After weeks of speculation, back and forth over bad theories on inflation and what seemed to be a steady stream of hawk-sounding Fed policymakers, the market has spoken. We know right now what the FOMC is going to do next Wednesday. But what comes after that is still somewhat up in the air, though not nearly as much as you might think given all the noise recently.  

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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November now makes three of the last four months and four of the last six with negative private payrolls. According to ADP, the US private economy shed 32k jobs last month, the most yet in the cycle. And it turns the 6m average negative for the first time, so serious problems in labor – which are creating bigger ones in the housing market. According to the latest official numbers from the government, home prices fell for t...

Consumer products giant Proctor & Gamble just came out with an unusual warning about its core business, consumer products meaning consumers. The maker of Tide detergent, Mr. Clean, Pampers, Gilette and whole bunch of other brands you use every single day just said that sales were down “significantly” in October and that it likely continued right on through November. This tracks with where Christmas holiday shopping has...

December begins with a decided risk-off mood in financial markets, led by more painful liquidations in crypto. Bitcoin starts off the month with a nearly 7% drop to what would be a new recent low. Why? Economic woes continue to dominate concerns. Starting with Chicago, ISM’s regional business barometer put up its largest single month decline in new orders in more than two years. Backlogs crashed by nearly 22 points to the ...

HP becomes the latest big name to announce major layoffs, said to be around 6000 more white collar jobs. It’s getting to the point where despite all the mainstream and social media attention, call it fixation, on the tariff inflation faction at the Fed, the latest economic update from the central bank has almost nothing in it about that. Instead, it’s cover-to-cover with worries about HP, Amazon, and all the smaller busine...

China sold a record amount of Treasuries last quarter, which is actually more confirmation of the monetary tightening story over the summer which is now spilling out into the mainstream in the form of elevated repo rates, SOFR, and repo borrowing from the Fed. At the same time and for very much related reasons, private foreign counterparties were buying huge amounts of, yes, US Treasuries. There was no rejection at all, qu...

Repo. It’s back. Or more accurately, never really left. When we last left off with it, things were calming down which is not unusual in these circumstances. That didn’t mean it was a one-time, one-off matter, just that in the middle of the month there isn’t a whole lot going on. But now with the Thanksgiving holiday here and December approaching, repo rates are up, borrowing from the Fed is back, and in related development...

Despite half the Federal Reserve’s best efforts to take away the December rate cut, the bond market is signaling from top to bottom, back to front it doesn’t care one bit. The FOMC can spout off on tariff inflation, they can claim there is no way they’ll support lowering rates next month, yields are going down and taking inflation expectations with them. The bond market is making big moves despite KC Jeff and his federal f...

India’s rupee broke, plunging and I mean plunging Friday to a new record low and once again embarrassing the country’s central bank which had been intervening heavily for the past month. The funny thing is, there really wasn’t much of a trigger to it, at least not on the surface. The rupee continues to be a major global bellwether that often has less to do with India specifically. This once again appears to be one of those...

Over half of American homes lost value over the last year, the highest number since...2012. More importantly, even the media is catching on that something big changed this summer in real estate. The reason why the housing market is retreating isn't interest rates. Lower mortgage costs have not sparked a turnaround in the face of all expectations they would. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

In a world where...

Nvidia was a bust. Not the company’s earnings and forecasts, those were stellar. Instead, it didn’t provide the buying boost everyone thought it would. Stocks lost ground. Bitcoin continues to get hammered, down by a third in roughly six weeks. What is going on here? The answer, or answers, are coming from the cockroaches. There’s more to the Blue Owl hedge fund story. Plus, Bitcoin is correlating with what we call the tri...

After Home Depot disappointed and Target got slammed, Walmart reported results that were above expectations because in this economic climate the Target and Home Depot’s losses are Walmart’s gains. And its strength came from all income brackets, though high-income Americans are increasingly turning to Walmart. That’s not good. But it does fit with the long-delayed payroll data that just came out, which you’ll be shocked to ...

While everyone else is glued to Nvidia, the results from Home Depot and Target will have far more to say about the markets and a lot more. Plus others like TJ Maxx, Bitcoin and the surprising Fed minutes that has a lot to say about the status of December's rate cut.

Bloomberg Wary Stock Bulls Eye Walmart, Target for Clues to Consumer Health
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-11-17/wary-stock-bulls-eye-walmar...

We went from the economy is strong and resilient, credit markets are fine reaching for yield to big names like Jamie Dimon and now so-called bond king Jeffrey Gundlach openly talking about cockroaches and garbage lending that are looking more like 2006 and 2007 every day. We’ve even got news of more hedge fund redemptions. Unlike a few months ago, now all of a sudden the possibilities seem plausible to people who forever r...

The European labor market is on the cusp of its own flat Beveridge moment. That danger was amplified by the third quarter contraction in the Swiss economy, which, as we know, is a key leading global indicator. And if all that wasn’t enough, a group of German Economists, of all people, just tore into the mainstream European narrative of Europe being in a good place. They even went so far as correctly, of course, crap all ov...

An unprecedented slump in Chinese investment. That’s what one media outlet called it. I don’t think slump is the right word. Crash might be a more appropriate one. While that tends to be overused, the numbers show not in this case. Especially when they are backed up by a crash in household lending in China, too, as Chinese banks just put up more grim stats. And all of this confirmation of what I told you months ago, the so...

Big moves across the risk markets this week. Bitcoin and crypto hammered. Repo back on the menu. WTI full contango (briefly). Plus, top officials at the New York Fed soft confirming the start of the next  not-QE QE. What does it all mean?

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

What is a Eurodollar University membership? It’s where understanding the monetary world isn’t a mystery—it's a method. If you’re serio...