Eurodollar University

Pepsi is slashing prices for some of its most popular brands, some by 15%. The company said it has spent the past year listening to consumer feedback. Nah. What happened is always what happens in this economy and why there is no breakout inflation. Companies that do raise prices end up sacrificing volumes because their customers can’t afford to pay more. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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The selloff in precious metals, particularly silver, has extended into today’s session. One reason why, one additional reason why, we’re seeing reports of fraud emerge in heavy buyer China, including from a guy who’s apparently called “the hat.” It’s the kind of thing that usually comes up when big bubbles go up and then pop, so another sign that’s what’s happening here in the short run. Which raises another question, how ...

A key corner of the credit market is experiencing sustained and even accelerated selling at the end of January 2026. What we’re talking about is historically one of the most economically sensitive segments, a growing caution about the climate ahead. And it’s not the only one. From cryptocurrencies to the inability of the AI bubble to get going, the cracks continue to widen rather than fade away like everyone said they were...

Consumer prices are never going to go back to where they were before the pandemic. This simple reason is they can’t. You think that since they went up, they can just go right back down. That’s not unlikely, it is impossible and I’m going to show you why with a very simple example. Now the implications of this economic fact are profound. In fact, it explains everything about the economy we have right now, from the labor mar...

Has the rally in silver gone so far now that the metal’s price action is actually behaving like a meme stock? Or is there something more fundamental and deeply disturbing behind what precious metals are doing? Maybe we should consider how it isn’t a loss of faith in the dollar as so many people wrongly claim which is propelling both gold and silver right now, what if it is the growing mistrust in how the entire world works...

After cutting 14,000 jobs back in October and denying there were more of them coming, Amazon confirmed yesterday there will be another 16,000 layoffs and made comments suggesting the company won’t be done even after then. These job cuts will only add to the worsening anxiety among American workers, who reminded everyone of those deep concerns in the latest plunge in consumer confidence. According to the most optimistic mea...

One of BlackRock’s private credit funds has just resurrected the cockroach concerns over debt woes in the space. By announcing that it will have to write down 19% of its net asset value, the fund also discloses more areas of cockroach concerns beyond those we had already become aware of. While at the same time, further reminding everyone how everything that people were worried about before they need to keep worrying about ...

An unprecedented shakeup at the very top of the Chinese military has shaken up the rest of the world. Xi Jinping didn’t just go after a longtime friend and ally, he has gone after everyone in what increasingly looks like a paranoid, Stalinist shakeup. But why? I’ve told you many times before about the economic pressure on China that has only intensified more recently. But that’s not the only thing. That’s where it starts, ...

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio is warning we shouldn’t be focused on trade wars, instead the real concern is capital wars. In those, Dalio says there will be a reduced appetite for owning US government debt or any US assets. Maybe even including American stocks. The comments were made in the context of recent geopolitical flashpoints in Venezuela and Greenland. As always, there’s a lot of noise surrounding this kind of top...

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A huge arctic blast, the weather wedge, has sent natural gas prices soaring in historic fashion. Some futures prices surged by a whopping 75% in just five days leading up to what people are calli...

The Japanese government bond market suffered a major meltdown this week that has shaken up a lot of people as they try to figure out what’s going on over there and how it might impact more than just government bonds as a class. One of the key factors that has emerged, however, is just how little selling it took to create these massive price swings. That has enormously profound implications.  

Eurodollar University's Money &...

The US housing market seemed like it was moving in the right direction recently, some better results people said were lower mortgage rates finally starting to work. But then reality dropped like a hammer today when the nation’s largest realtor group reported a massive 9.3% drop in pending home sales for December, biggest monthly decline since 2020. Stunned analysts are trying to figure out why lower rates aren’t stimulatin...

Macy’s is the latest retailer to admit to struggling in the current economic climate, closing several of what it calls fulfillment centers, basically warehouse facilities in Connecticut and Oklahoma and shedding thousands of those jobs. That comes in addition to even more store closings across the country. Why? Because only the wealthy are spending so the company wants to focus as much as possible on that segment. Macy’s i...

Thanks to Monarch for partnering with me! Get 50% off your first year by using my link https://monarchmoney.yt.link/eB2fzzP or discount code euro50 when signing up for a free trial! Welcome to calm, confident money! #monarchpartner

Chinese retail sales just did something they’ve never done before outside of the lockdowns. At the same time, capital investment continues to legitimately crash, December was third month in a row...

What is going on with Freddie Mac? The Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, which is Freddie’s official, has seen its stock utterly pummeled this past week, crashing by 25%. Since Freddie is one of the mortgage giants, this isn’t just some run of the mill equity. The story here appears to be tied up in a number of different angles, from GSE QE to its IPO, but the themes we keep coming back to are concerns over its cash ...

Every financial crisis generally takes place in three steps. And while there aren’t bright, clear lines of separation between them, each one does have unique characteristics that allow us to get a sense of where things stand in the process. That’s the thing, cycles are processes and as this one might go through all three steps, each one represents an escalation in that process. We’re in Stage 1, that’s just the start. Stag...

Today we’re going be unpacking the latest from closely watched indicators out of China: bank lending data, household credit, the movement of the yuan, and what a single real estate developer—China Vanke—tells us about debt and payments right now. Bank lending in 2025 fell to the lowest since 2018 largely because household lending utterly collapsed. Yes, it collapsed last year. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Anal...