Marcus Strategy

Marcus Strategy

Marcus Strategy podcast supports the Marcus Strategy section, which is the heart and soul of the Marcus Today newsletter. This is where Marcus Padley shares his thoughts about the current state of the market, the threats, and opportunities.Marcus also includes an educational element to his section, explaining jargon, indicators, fundamentals, charts, other resources.To access the complete Marcus Strategy content, sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter on marcustoday.com.au.

Episodes

January 13, 2022 16 min

We survive the US CPI number and if anything it's provided a few reasons not to worry about interest rates - despite a record number. We are adding to BHP holdings today and discuss the imminent increase in the BHP index weightings in Australia. We talk about why you should ignore sell recommendations in FMG,   look at the Us results season that's about to start, sell DMP in the IDEAS section and herald a new IDEAS WATCHLIS...

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A couple of new trading ideas today as we join JP Morgan in saying the recent tech sell-off has been overdone. We also look at debt, how it changes management and which companies will be disadvantaged by higher interest rates if and when we get them. We also talk POS and the Machiavellian plot , discuss a few themes in the portfolios,  and are on guard for the US CPI number tonight which is central to the interest rate debate.

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Welcome Back - Today we have POST-IT NOTES for 2022 - predictions for this year along with a look at ARB, PNV, MFG and some strategy bullet points for the day.

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The US market is close to all-time highs, the Australian market has had a good year, the US market has had twice as good a year. The volumes on Wall Street last night were a record low for this year as we slide quietly into the Christmas Buffers without too much to worry about. As it should be.  Today I present you with a Marathon Education Article about "10 THINGS THAT WASTE YOUR TIME" as investors, some IDEAS that are bub...

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And the wheels on the bus go round and round - stay tuned for tomorrow's change of mood because we've had another one today. Omicron will not cause lockdowns says Biden and the Tech sector, Travel and Energy bounces.  Almost all the Australian BNPL stocks hit 52-week lows yesterday and are primed for a change of Tech mood. I'm not buying into it. Not keen on buying into anything in this sideways trade ahead of Christmas...

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MT Christmas Advent Sale! This works like an advent calendar – we’ll be revealing a new sale offer for you every other day until Christmas and you have two days to redeem each offer. Once it’s gone, it’s gone forever!

Australia outperforming thanks to our lack of Tech. Omicron risk over the holidays. New lockdowns in Europe could upset Christmas. US GDP downgrades start. The new threat to growth is ill-timed considering the timetab...

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All getting a bit Ho Hum as we roll into Christmas. The Market has no momentum and we wait to see if the FOMC Meeting tonight can set a trend or kill it. Comments today on CSL's big acquisition and on WOW's profit warning yesterday. Both remain "Forever" stocks. Looking to reverse our cash call but there's no rush. A few technical observations finish off the section and will hopefully keep you amused whilst not ...

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Back from a pointless attempt to star in the Victorian Senior Amateur Golf Championship and the Omicron risk has all but evaporated. The precipitous risk has passed - we are getting back into a couple of sold stocks, adding an idea and declaring the intention to reverse the cashing up decision at an appropriate moment. 

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No need to be buying into the current trend. Happy to be cashed up in the RBP and cashed up a bit in the FUFU and DAF portfolios. We've cleared out the IDEAS PORTFOLIO except for a holding in DMP.  Sitting back waiting for the market to decide if Omicron is a problem or a hiccup. Today we look at the winners and losers if Omicron's going to stay around a bit longer.   

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All's well in the iron ore trades as the iron ore price pops again helped by Macquarie research. All the signs from the US to NZ suggest interest rates are going up. Another bit of property sector research says house prices are about to peak.  The Aussie dollar is falling. Holidays are getting cheaper in Europe. May have made a mistake in gold.


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Quite a bit going on today - We have sold a Forever stock, bought two trades and added a couple of stocks to the WATCHLIST.  Lots of strategy themes and a bit of portfolio news. We also compare Australia's ASX 200 to the S&P 500 and make some interesting observations.

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Powell back in with a mandate to contain inflation. Rates rise, the US dollar rises and Gold and Technology stocks fall. Hopes for Chinese policy easing boosts iron ore stocks. We may have timed the bottom on that after all. Gold on the nose as inflation war begins. The CBA are telling us mortgage rates are going up and the housing market will peak.  Chinese Tech on the nose again.  Robinhood's shareholders going from rich to p...

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Lots of news - AGM season in full flight as well as a few results around. The CBA fell 8% on its update yesterday. We look at what to do now. The Macquarie share purchase plan is coming up - we talk about that as well. Then there's the MIN AGM, the SHL AGM, the EVN acquisition (its up 8%), the SEK AGM, and a bunch of others.  We also look at XRO post results and update the IDEAS PORTFOLIO.

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Routine day. CBA disappoints - like WBC. NIM down and losing home loan market share, presumably to Macquarie. No change to strategy. US$ pops giving resources a dull day. Good for international stocks but not commodity prices. Biden-Xi chat lands well. We've added a new stock to the IDEAS PORTFOLIO.  Have also published a WATCHLIST which might interest some of you. 

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Not much going on today. We look at money printing.  Wonder when "The Big One" is coming.  Two new ideas today and the first incarnation of the IDEAS PORTFOLIO. Telstra's Investor Day doesn't disturb.  Resources and Gold turn up on the Technical buy signals list. DAF (Dividends and Franking) Portfolio on its way this week.

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Today I launch the new FUFU portfolio. Find out which stocks meet our "Forever" criteria and which don't. We also have a good look at the US CPI number and wonder if it will be the catalyst for a correction. There is a new IDEA OF THE DAY and we look at the Australian jobs number which is weaker than expected and has dropped the market this morning.   

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Day two of the MARCUS SPI section. We did the RBP (really boring portfolio) yesterday and have turned our attention to the FUFU portfolio today. It will be published soon. In the meantime, we have the first FUFU stock for you and a couple of early ideas in the IDEAS section.   

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Today we introduce the new MARCUS SPI section, your go to spot for Strategy Portfolios and Ideas. Today we do a strategy roundup and tackle the REALLY BORING PORTFOLIO (RBP) which involves restructuring the existing ETF portfolio into a long-term market matching portfolio with a strategy overlay. We have moved all the fun ETFs into Henry’s charge, he has started an ACTIVE ETF PORTFOLIO today. NAB results looked okay today but the s...

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Today we look at the FOMC who have delivered a taper without a tantrum. The central banks have done a good job this week diffusing a bond yield blip and announcing the taper, the timing of which most strategists have spent the last year speculating about. It’s done. DMP dropped 17% this morning after the AGM yesterday. Or is there something else going on? Z1P makes us cringe despite a dazzling AGM presentation. Bank dividends comin...

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Feeling brave enough to call the end of the bond market panic after the RBA meeting yesterday. All the headlines they needed to put out they put out. Interest rates are not going up in the short term. Bond Yields are going down again and the equity market is relaxing. The iron ore price dropped 6%. Looking to time t...

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