December 5, 2025 • 36 mins
Description: Some of the recent free agent deals have left fans…confused. Players like Dylan Cease, Devin Williams, and Ryan Helsley are getting paid a shocking amount compared to their stats and years in the game. Are certain players getting paid too much?
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:11):
Are we seeing a bunch of free agency overpays here early?
I mean early ish in the offseason. I keep forgetting
it is December? Are we seeing some free agency overpays?
Including this gentleman Dylan c. So the goal with this
beginning segment of the show is to talk about three
(00:33):
pitchers that have recently signed pretty lucrative deals coming off
of well, not their best years okay, And in free agency,
what your year before sorry? In baseball, your year before
going into free agency is called a platform year. It
is the year that you are going to use in
(00:54):
your proposals to teams. You're going to set teams basically
reach out, they say.
Speaker 2 (01:00):
What are you looking for?
Speaker 1 (01:01):
You kind of give them a general like we're looking
for this we think the values around here, and the
teams either scoff at it or say that sounds pretty.
Speaker 2 (01:09):
Good or that's fairly close.
Speaker 1 (01:11):
You know there might be something there is there any
wiggle room with years or numbers, right, So you get
one of those three kind of replies and then you
figure out who might be in and who you can
then come back to with a proposal. So, like some
teams come to you, you sometimes you go to teams
and you just say, hey, this is happening over here.
(01:31):
We know you have a need here. We just want
to let you know so you don't miss the party.
And that is how these things usually get kicked off.
Sometimes they go.
Speaker 2 (01:39):
Really quickly, Sometimes they don't right.
Speaker 1 (01:42):
Sometimes there's you know, a bunch of teams in, sometimes
there's only one. Sometimes someone comes in right at the end.
That happened to email last year with the a's They
were not even on the radar until right at the end,
and they just kind of came out of nowhere. And
so like that, that happens, and it's very interesting because
that leads us to these numbers that we're getting. And
(02:05):
so what we're gonna do is we're going to go
over these three deals and we're going to look at
the statistically anecdotally and try to decide whether or not
this we believe that this is an overpay or if
it's kind of aligned with how these things work, and
then what other forces can be kind of thrown in
(02:25):
there that might drive the number up just a little
bit past where you think it is, that make it
feel more of an overpay than it is. There are
there are like details that might make it make more sense,
and so I went and found a bunch of them,
and I would like to share them with you. And
we're going to start with Dylan Ceese and his big
deal with the Toronto Blue Jays as reported by The Athletic.
(02:49):
Here for a seven year, two hundred and ten million
dollar deal to Toronto. If you're doing the math at home,
that is thirty million dollars a year, generally aav but
we do know there is a certain level of deferments happening.
Speaker 2 (03:02):
We don't know what exactly what that number is.
Speaker 1 (03:05):
Deferments are interesting in this context too, because of the
tax issue and the Canada thing, and there's a lot
that goes into that, much of which I'm still learning
as we go, but deferments are almost necessary at times.
And bonuses, which are where you're paid at your home
because you're only paid during the season, so your pay
(03:25):
TeX's only going in the season. The offseason they don't
come through, so like you can claim that you're somewhere
else if you're paid in the off seasons a bonus
because it could be given. Then those come to play
and are probably going to keep coming into play more
and more and more for Toronto. Because Toronto seems to
be spending money, and they do seem to be leaning
into those mechanics in order to get make it make
a little bit more sense, both for them and the players.
(03:47):
So there is deferre money. As of this writing, I
didn't know. We couldn't find what it was, but the
projection is around twenty six million dollars a year in
annual value a av Okay, So let's go through statistically
because as we all know, as many of us know
kind of intuitively but also know from watching, he had
(04:08):
a down year last year comparatively. If you remember in
twenty twenty two he had that stellar year where he
was the runner up for the cy Young with the
two to two era where he absolutely dominated in Chicago.
You know this was not that year. He was eight
and twelve with a four point five to five era.
He threw one hundred and sixty eight innings, which is good,
one hundred and fifty two hits, which is though it's
not quite as dominant as hes been in the past,
(04:30):
that's still good, right, And he struck out two hundred
fifteen guys in those hundred and sixty eight innings. So peripherally,
like the pieces are still there. He tends to walk
a higher number. He's walked seventy one guys in one
hundred and sixty eight innings, good for a nine point
eight percent walk right, the league average is about eight
point eight percent. You're gonna see a trend with all
three of these guys. They walked slightly above average. But
(04:51):
just like the other two guys, we're going to talk
about his improved through the year. So he walked way
more at the beginning of the year and then got
settled in a little bit, and that often happens, especially
for starters. But he has a twenty nine point eight
k rate, so like that has always been there. It's
been there through every single year. Good batter and different
And he had a one point three to three whip,
(05:11):
which is too high in my opinion, but a lot
of factors can factor in there. So like if we're
looking at potential wise, because a lot of this stuff
is based on projecting in the future, and he has
had an a style year and he's thrown a no hitter,
like he's shown that like if he clicks, there's if
there's another thing that just clicks for a few months,
he'll be he could be the best picture on the planet,
(05:32):
which oftentimes is enough to get a.
Speaker 2 (05:34):
Deal done like this.
Speaker 1 (05:37):
Okay, so let's talk a little bit about what happened
last year, and I'm gonna pull on a thread that
I pulled on a couple times earlier in this past
season to explain Devin Williams struggles even Ryan Helsley a
little bit after the tipping thing, and how big of
a difference in defense can make on this style of pitcher,
the high strikeout, high risk, high reward sometimes guy where
(06:02):
where runs come in bunches because it's usually related to
home runs or like damaged type hits. It's just the
way that it is. When you get lots of swing
of misses, you tend to give up more fly balls,
and more flyballs are tending to go out of the
park more because that is the hit. It's like a
trade off, right, So you might get more strikeouts, which
means you can strand a lot more guys if things
go your way, but also you're more you tend to
(06:24):
give up that through on home run more than stay
a Logan Web who is getting.
Speaker 2 (06:27):
Groundballed for groundball for ground ball.
Speaker 1 (06:29):
Now Logan Web gets groundball to death sometimes where it's
this four hole six hole, four hole, six hole, four hole,
six hole, and he can't get a strikeout and he
needs to get out of anybody can't because he gives
them a contact.
Speaker 2 (06:38):
That's the flip side. Dylan ces is not one of
those guys.
Speaker 1 (06:40):
The other two were about to talk about are also not,
so that tends to hurt them if their defense isn't good.
Speaker 2 (06:45):
So this is what happened last year.
Speaker 1 (06:47):
In terms of defense, the Padres were nineteenth and fielding
run value with negative one nineteenth.
Speaker 2 (06:52):
In the league, and they were.
Speaker 1 (06:55):
Also nineteenth in the league in out's above average with
negative seven. So all, as a team, even though they
have the Platinum Glove in the right field, overall, they're
a blow average defensive team. Okay, when you're a flyball guy, especially,
you need the outfield to run things down, things in
the gap, you need to be able to get some
help there once in a while, or things over their head,
(07:16):
you need to get help there once in a while. Right,
So if you have one outfielder or a revolving door
of two outfielders that just like you haven't really found
something that sticks, or even the infield just doesn't have
the range, and the things that are getting through the
infield usually don't that can hurt you, and those are
still earned. There's been a lipig argument online. This is
happening a lot. I think it's because I'm starting to
(07:37):
teach younger guys to pitch a little bit more here
up where I live, that I'm becoming aware of the
social media side of teaching and talking about value and players.
But like Derek Cheeter, everyone says he wasn't very defensively.
I believe Derekcheeter was a very a rock solid. He
made all the plays he should make. The problem was
he just didn't have the range the other guys had.
(07:58):
So things that were just hit we're just outs for
other guys, but he just didn't touch them at all,
so they were hits.
Speaker 2 (08:04):
Like that's a thing.
Speaker 1 (08:05):
That's a real thing, that that there is guys with
higher range that make more plays and that they just
get everything. It's not just making the play that they
you know, they feel it and they make the good throw.
He was good at that. It's the it's the ball
that's hit into the into the hole that another more
athletic person who has better lateral range actually gets a
(08:25):
glove on it. He doesn't even touch it, and one's
called an out and one's a hit. But no error
was made. So errors aren't the only thing that matter.
It's about range, all right. That happens, and he wasn't
on a great defensive team that factored in a little bit. Okay,
the on the flip side, the Blue Jays last year
were first in FRV which is fielding run value in
(08:49):
forty five and seventh in ouzo of average with twenty one.
So they're a very good defensive team. So that tells
me that they that might help the case that Dylan
Cees might get a little bit more lucky with us
because we have elite defenders and with no Bob Baschett,
which is the only guy that really brought them down anywhere,
is not going to be their shortstop next year, Bill
(09:11):
accounts to be andres him and Az who was a
goal glove second basement, so like that might be upgraded
as well. And Bobachett was that short a lot this
year too and they were still that good, so just
factor that and they might even be better next year.
There's a chance with Dylan bar Show center vaulton Vall
Show rather like they're just very good defensively, So that
could mean that a few more plays are made for
(09:31):
him that avoid that three run inning that make this
era look way different.
Speaker 2 (09:35):
That's usually what pitchers are.
Speaker 1 (09:36):
It's not guaranteed, but it probably will help his batting
average of balls put in play, which is always higher
for strikeout guys, remember, because you have less balls put
in play, and that means the hits you do give
up or a higher percentage of those hits. So therefore
that batting average will be higher. Is it's still higher
than his LEAGA or his his career average he had
(09:56):
a three twenty three career or BABBEB and his career
two ninety seven, so it's twenty five points above. I
like BABEB only when you are comparing it to the
same person. So if you're comparing a guy's BABEB this
year to their historical BABEB, that's a good way to
say unluckier un lucky. If you're comparing it to the league,
(10:17):
everyone's different, right. Round ball guys have lower babebs because
they give up more more in balls and play, and
so that same number of hits is a lower batting
average that they just have lower ones generally.
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Speaker 2 (11:32):
There's no like benchmark number that's good.
Speaker 1 (11:34):
It's only comparative to yourself, and if you are historically
a two seventy guy and you have a three point fifty,
something's going on, Like things are being hit.
Speaker 2 (11:43):
That were hits that weren't before. A lot of times
it's defense.
Speaker 1 (11:45):
A lot of times it's your location and you're throwing
you're just not locating very well.
Speaker 2 (11:49):
Sometimes it's both, right, So.
Speaker 1 (11:51):
His was a little bit high, but actually not super crazy,
So that doesn't fully explain only the defense, but it
probably was a little bit of the factor. Again, it
just takes one or two or three big hits to
account for like seven or eight more runs than you
would have given up, which could be a full run
on your ur right like that. That is how fast
these things can swing, especially if you're a reliever.
Speaker 2 (12:11):
So it's worth noting. So he had a little bad luck.
Speaker 1 (12:15):
He didn't command the ball ray well either, so a
lot of this is on him, but he and he
didn't have a great defense, so he just wasn't put
in the position to like get away with a lot
of stuff he like, you know what I mean, Sometimes
the margin vera is not as big. This year it wasn't,
so that could account for it because a lot of
the other peripheral numbers were there, So is he being
overpaid is the question. Let's look at how teams look
(12:38):
at it. A factor in war. I know everyone hates war.
War is important, So the two war numbers I look
at are B war and f wor B war is
baseball reference war, that is what happened, right, F war
factors in things that can be projected what we think
should have probably happened based on how he pitched. So
(12:58):
there's a big discrepancy between these. Sometimes there's some bad
luck when there's Sometimes projections aren't like full proof obviously,
but they do account for more stuff usually. So his
B war was a one point one, but his F
war was a three point four, so like the blue
days are like you know, I know he had a
four and a half RA, which is which is high ish,
(13:19):
but everything else lines up to what we expect from him,
and he's doing he's healthy, so like we still feel
better about this. So right now, this is last year
of the war. What one war was like seven or
seven point five million per on the lower end, Let's
say it's anywhere from like eight or nine million this
year because that's how markets work. So if he is
(13:41):
averaging first career, which he is, he's averaging on average
between both war numbers, he gets about two point five
to three point five.
Speaker 2 (13:46):
He's about a three war player a year.
Speaker 1 (13:49):
That would account to about twenty one million dollars or sorry,
twenty four million if we're saying it's eight million. So
if he's projected to be about a twenty four million
dollar player based on war and getting paid twenty six
after the deferments, it's pretty close, pretty close at least,
like they're making that distinction buying closed doors. And he's
(14:10):
also probably the prize starting pitcher, so that means other
teams are probably involved, which could account for that extra
two million, Like maybe they had to go two million
more in order to beat everybody else. That's when the
bidding war comes in. So we've established value, we know
what we want to do, and then you have to
beat another team's number. That is how this thing unfolds,
and that's why sometimes you can get this little push
(14:31):
past what maybe the maybe the average perfect value is.
Maybe you get a little bit more than that because
there was another team that was serious about it, and
the difference between getting you and not getting you is
worth that extra million or two, and I think that's
what we saw here. I genuinely do think that's what
we saw. And also there are a few other pros
I think that are worth mentioning. One, he's extremely durable.
(14:54):
I don't think people realize this, but he has thrown
thirty plus starts. I think it's thirty one plus starts,
actually five years in a row. Like he has thrown
over one hundred and sixty eight innings.
Speaker 2 (15:04):
It's actually his low. He is thrown in the.
Speaker 1 (15:06):
High one hundred one six seventy one eighty one ninety
innings every year for five straight years and made thirty
plus starts. So he has not been hurt. That is
a huge like think about the state of the game. Now,
that's a big deal. But that can't have.
Speaker 2 (15:22):
A flip side, which I'll talk about in a second.
And he is a potential.
Speaker 1 (15:25):
He has a no hitter, and he has a year
under his belt where he almost want to say young.
So it's in there. They feel like it's in there.
And if we can get it in Toronto, if we
can bring that out of him just a little bit more,
then we could potentially be getting more value than we're paying.
So I think that's pretty good. I think he could
potentially be an ace.
Speaker 2 (15:47):
He gets a little bit of radic.
Speaker 1 (15:48):
He does walk too many guys again, though, that's something
you can learn to be better at, right, So that
that can be a little bit of development. That could
be some mechanical que that could be something in your
brain that changes and you just suddenly don't walk people anymore.
He could, he could do that at any point. That's
part of getting becoming a better pitcher and going more
places to go.
Speaker 2 (16:05):
The better chance you have to do that.
Speaker 1 (16:07):
But I would say after being that healthy for that long,
he's thrown a lot of innings, and he throws hard.
Hard throwers who throw a lot of innings, it's pretty
much inevitable that you are going to go under.
Speaker 2 (16:19):
The knife for a year at some point.
Speaker 1 (16:22):
Gerk Cole did it last year. He was it was
almost guaranteed, like you, they it was built in. They
knew it was going to happen at some point. He's
still worth his contract. So there is a chance though
that that probably happens in the next seven years. I'llah
Like Chris Sale, right, Chris Sale was healthy for eight years,
Like literally didn't miss anything for eight years and then
had three or four years where he was still it
(16:43):
was it was a struggle. It was a struggle for
a while as he got older, but he threw tons
of innings, so like there's only so many innings you
can throw, right, you can't say you can't say one
hundred percent.
Speaker 2 (16:52):
Healthy for fifteen years anymore.
Speaker 1 (16:54):
Like it's just or you're not competing, You're you're out
of the game for that because you're not throwing very hard,
because you're trying not to get hurt, like you have
to chance it. And unfortunately that's just the way that
it's it comes out. So there's a chance that that
shows up at some point. But I'm sure they know
that and they're willing to sacrifice one of those years
in order to get the upside on the back end, right.
(17:15):
I don't like that it's like that, but it is.
It's just it's just work. Hazard man workers comp any
job that, especially physical labor, should be should have guarantees
that as long as you give everything you got, if
you get hurt, you still are going to be taken
care of until you can get healthy. And because sometimes
stuff happens, and that's just the nature of the game.
(17:36):
So do I think that that's an overpay, Maybe just
just a bit, But I think that the bidding war
might account for that, and that is normal and this
is not outside of the norm. Do I think he'll
fulfill this contract. It just depends on how consistent he
is in those seven years. But the potential is there
(17:57):
and that's what they're paying for. So I think this
deal is a little bit better than it's being given
credit for. And I think it was just a sticker
shock that happened that a lot of people are like,
he was not very good last year, what do we
do it?
Speaker 3 (18:08):
Like?
Speaker 1 (18:08):
But he's been He has a lot of the things
that a team would want, especially the health and the ceiling.
And if you are confident in your ability to develop players,
then you go get a Dyllanci's because he's shown that.
He's shown it before they've seen it. We've seen it
on the mound, So you pay premium for that, right, Okay,
So that's my greade on that.
Speaker 2 (18:30):
Number.
Speaker 1 (18:30):
Two, Old d Willie Devin Williams signs a three year,
fifty one million dollars with the New York Mets. They
are basically hedging against Edwin Diaz not coming back, though
he is by all accounts negotiating to come back. Devin
had a down year with the Yankees. We've talked to
(18:52):
nauseum about this, but he does do a lot of
the similar things to Edwin Diaz.
Speaker 2 (18:59):
Right.
Speaker 1 (18:59):
He goes on these streaks where he's unhittable. He strikes
out the world. Yes, it gets dicey there sometimes a
little bit in cardiac, but he also can punched out everybody.
And he finished very strong and had a very good
showing in the playoff series. He played, he pitched really well,
so he from August tenth on he was nails. He
was what we saw. But as we established in the
(19:21):
What's Wrong with Devin Williams video on YouTube, his defense
was not great and he was used to being on
a Brewers team that was very good defensively. Every year
they're always top five defensive team, and he benefited from
that because he is a flyball guy. Strikes out a
lot of guys, and he's a very high babbab usually
unless your defense is incredible and the balls are being
(19:43):
run down. So let's go through the stats and the
deal real quick. Three years, fifty one million dollars deal.
It's actually fifteen million of that fifty one or third,
so that's five million from each year. So that brings
the AAV down to it was seventeen down to twelve.
And then he's getting paid two million a year in
bonuses because presumably he lives somewhere with a lower state
(20:05):
tax rate than New York City, which is pretty much
everywhere by California. I'm assuming he probably lives in Florida
or Texas or I mean, he might live in Washington,
I don't know, maybe in one of the no income
no income tax states, which means of those two million
dollars every year are tax like thirteen percent or eleven
I think it's twelve percent twelve point one percent less,
(20:27):
So that's not nothing.
Speaker 2 (20:28):
That's a quarter of a million.
Speaker 1 (20:29):
Dollars in realized real money, which then helps offset the deferments.
Speaker 2 (20:36):
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Speaker 1 (21:41):
There's a lot of stuff moving around here, so that
number is really big, But like the deferments, also lower
the value of it because it's paid later, and so
the AAV projection is more around Instead of the fifteen million,
it's more around the twelve thirteen million a year in
real money. That's how much it's really actually worth. Locker room,
and I know probably more like fourteen, but so you
(22:03):
can go by seventeen, I'm gonna go use the fourteen
number and see if fourteen million dollars a year is
the right price for Devin Williams. Last year didn't go
as well as it should. He had a four to
seven nine ERA, sixty two inks pitch, forty five hits allowed,
that's pretty good. He had ninety k's that's really good.
Twenty five walks a little bit high, but again he
(22:24):
got better as the year went on, which is good
for a thirty four point seven percent k rate and
a nine point seven percent walk rate, which is again
about one percent above average.
Speaker 2 (22:33):
He's still got to work on that. It is just
something he does.
Speaker 1 (22:36):
But he had a won one to three whip, which
is that's not a ton of base run Like that's solid,
Like that's not a ton of guys on base. It
was just like he's getting hurt by the random homer
every once in a while. He had fifteen holds and
eighteen saves, and he only blew four saves the whole year,
including holds, so like, I know they were there. I
think they came like three or three of the four
came in like two weeks, so we remember that. But like,
(22:57):
for the most part, he did the job that he
was out there to go, even though it was messy
sometimes an he finished year really strong.
Speaker 2 (23:03):
So what happened last year? Let's talk about the defenses again.
Speaker 1 (23:05):
The Yankees were twelve in fielding run value at eight
and they were eighteenth and outs above average with negative four.
And we also established in that video before that the
vast majority of the numbers bringing these numbers down were
Anthony Volpi and Jason Demingez and left, like those two
guys were really really struggled defensively, and everyone else was
pretty good, well above average. Bellinger was good, Judge was good,
(23:28):
Ultimate when he was playing first was good. Ben Rice's average.
He's not great, but it's possible. So like, there's there's
a lot going on there, but they're just a slightly
below average defensive team. It's not as bad as you
think it is, but it's not great.
Speaker 2 (23:46):
Okay.
Speaker 1 (23:47):
Also, there is a truck backing up, because of course,
I'm sure they'll back up for the next twenty to
thirty five minutes though, so I apologize for that, but
there's nothing gonna do about it, oh.
Speaker 2 (23:55):
Or they won't great.
Speaker 1 (23:57):
Moving on back to the defenses. Okay, now he's going
to the Mets, who were worse than the Yankees, so
that's not great. But the Mets were nineteenth in FRV
with a negative five and twenty first with outs above
average was negative thirteen. But they added Marcus Simeon, who
was a plus seven outs above average by himself at
(24:21):
second base, so him and Lindor and up the middle
will make a big difference. They kind of had a
revolving door of second baseman, so that should help. They
should improve, and they're looking to improve their outfield at
moving Nemo and moving on. So Bill accounts they will
get better. But do I think they're gonna get like
top of the league better?
Speaker 2 (24:37):
Probably not.
Speaker 1 (24:38):
They'll probably be like an average above average team, So
I don't know if he's going to benefit a ton
from that. His BABEP was two ninety nine, when his
career average is two seventy. Now, that was crazy high.
It was like three forty for a lot of the year,
and then he started to have stuff go his way
a little bit, especially when when Volpi got a little
(24:58):
bit less playing time and Jason Emia started a tune
and they they got him out of left field.
Speaker 2 (25:03):
Basically when they got.
Speaker 1 (25:04):
Kabierro his babbitt put better got much much better. So, uh,
he's really hurt by defense. Devin Williams is really hurt
by poor defense, and he always has been so, and
he's always had good defense until he went to the Yankis.
Speaker 2 (25:17):
So we'll see if the Mets.
Speaker 1 (25:18):
Can, like if they have the type of defense that
he can, he can get away with some of the
stuff he does.
Speaker 2 (25:23):
But I think in general it.
Speaker 1 (25:26):
Will improve, and he might it might be okay. In
war he had a point three B war and a
one to one F war. Again big discrepancy. So they're like, yeah,
he got a little bit unlucky with some defense stuff
and some timing stuff and that made it look a
lot worse than it maybe was. I agree with that statement.
Though he hasn't been He wasn't as dominant as it
(25:46):
was before just general, even the underlying numbers weren't as good,
but they were more in line right, and he just
wasn't getting the results until August, and then he started
getting those results and then we saw what he what
good version of him is. So he had to get
it's about a one point one to a one point
four war every year. Again, we're saying eight million per war.
That takes us to what ten to twelve million a
(26:11):
year ish as a fair value just based on war.
So he's getting seventeen AAV. But again we're gonna take
that down to fourteen. Still a little bit of an overpay,
I think, and even with the deferrals, it's still like
fourteen fourteen and a half. So yes, he's maybe making
a little bit more money, especially with a three year deal,
a little bit more money than his value shows from
last year. But again he has track here record before that,
(26:33):
so maybe that adds a couple more years. And also
he's one of the premier relievers on the market, which
then does what creates a little bit of a bidding war,
makes him, makes him affordable and him and like Edwin Diaz,
he's worth more like he's more expensive.
Speaker 2 (26:48):
Than Devin Williams.
Speaker 1 (26:49):
So maybe the team's like, we're not gonna be able
to get Edwin Diaz, We're not gonna be able to coax.
Speaker 2 (26:54):
Him away from the Mets.
Speaker 1 (26:55):
They're just gonna outbid us anyways, So let's go for
the number two guy. That's Devin Williams, and then maybe
there's a bit more that bumped it up a little bit.
Speaker 2 (27:01):
So is this an overpay? I think slightly.
Speaker 1 (27:10):
Maybe I'm leaning that way, but again I think it's
accounted by the way that free agency works and the
way that the market is. Where he sits in that
like draft, in that depth chart, it's pretty close. He
maybe got a little scooch more than I would have guessed.
I would have said, like maybe three forty five that
would have felt more close to right on. But again,
(27:31):
I love it when players can get just a little
bit more. Again, it's about furthering the market as well,
so that job was done as well. But I don't
think I don't think this is a crazy deal either.
Maybe the years is crazy. Maybe it was a two
year deal would have been more since maybe opt outs
after every year would be different, like we're trying to replatform.
Speaker 2 (27:50):
I don't know. Those things weren't in there though.
Speaker 1 (27:51):
So maybe it's a little bit risky, just barely, But
like I think he's going to be fine, and he's
played in New York for a year, so he knows what
to expect, so it's not horrible. And if they got
a win, das. I'm feeling really happy about it. Okay,
Now our last deal before we move on.
Speaker 2 (28:10):
Ryan Elsley signs a two year, twenty eight million dollar
deal with the Baltimore Orioles, and he is an.
Speaker 1 (28:17):
Opt out after the first year player option, so we
as one player option opt out when there is a
player option, like what Blake Snell did with the San
Francisco Giants, what Pete Alonzo did with the Mets. When
there's a player after the first year with a high
av that is a replatform a year. They're hoping they
can go recoup some of their value and then possibly
(28:37):
test free agency again to get the big payday. So
it's basically just a bridge. It's called a bridge deal.
This feels like a bridge deal with some security in
the back end, meaning like if it doesn't work out,
I still make that for I can still opt in,
make that fourteen million in the back and they have
to pay me. No one wants to have to approach
it that way, but that is why that's there.
Speaker 2 (28:58):
Okay, So that's.
Speaker 1 (28:59):
Fourteen million dollars a year. As far as I know,
there's no deferments. And this is his last year. He
had a four point five era fifty six innings, sixty
one hits allout.
Speaker 2 (29:07):
That's a red flag for me.
Speaker 1 (29:08):
Giving up more hits and innings as a reliever is
a red flag, especially when you throw one hundred sixty
three ks, still not a super high k rate and
twenty five twenty five walks for twenty five percent krate
and a nine point nine percent walk rate, which is.
Speaker 2 (29:21):
The highest of the three we've talked about. With a
one point five whip.
Speaker 1 (29:25):
Those numbers are not as good as the other two.
Like his underlying numbers aren't as good as the other two.
They're not screaming that he just had a weird year
with like unlucky. There was something else. There was something else.
He had twenty one saves a single hold and nine
blown saves, so he was he was like thirty percent
(29:46):
of time not getting the job done.
Speaker 2 (29:47):
That's also a big red flag.
Speaker 1 (29:49):
But remember he had a three with the cards at
CRA and a seven point two with the Mets, so
a lot of this had happened with the Mets.
Speaker 2 (29:55):
We know about the tipping that happened. But I am one.
Speaker 1 (29:58):
There's one big concern for me, and that's he gave
up way more hits and struck out less guys this year.
Speaker 2 (30:02):
Those are not good. Right.
Speaker 1 (30:05):
You can say hit high hits but still high strikeouts.
Maybe they're unlucky. Higher hits and lower strikeouts means it
might be stuff related. That's concerning to me. Even though
we didn't see a lower velossity. It could be command related.
So we're going to talk about that in a minute.
But was how much did defense have to do with it? Again,
this is another red flag. Didn't have a lot to
do with it. The cards were ninth in FRV and
(30:27):
with twenty one and tighten first with the Cubs with
thirty six outs above average, so they had a very
good defense. And though he had a three which helped,
the other numbers didn't really improve. Like the strikeoud numbers
weren't better, and he still gave lots of hits. He
was better with them, but he still had a three
twenty seven bab up with them when his career average
is a two to seventy seven. So he's still fifty
(30:49):
points above with the team that was good defensively, that's
not great. It's again we're now possibly it could be
location or stuff related.
Speaker 2 (30:58):
Now he's with the Orioles.
Speaker 1 (31:00):
They're twenty second in both FRV and out above average
with negative twenty two and negative twenty four. So he's
going to a much much, much worse defensive team, a
worse defensive team than the.
Speaker 2 (31:11):
Mets were last year, which again not great.
Speaker 1 (31:15):
So we ended the year with a three forty four BABUB,
which is sixty seven points above his career, So there
is some unluckiness.
Speaker 2 (31:22):
But also I went and looked at fastball command.
Speaker 1 (31:27):
It was right down the middle, a lot like a
lot of just middle, and his slider was the only
pitch that got people out. His fastball was absolutely shell
ACKed all year, and that is concerning for a guy
who through was ninety nine to one hundred and one.
I don't know why, Like, even with that command, you
should still be getting miss hits, but they were just
on it. And so there's something. There's something with the
(31:50):
fastball that's not working very well. Even when you miss
your spot and when you throw that hard, you're supposed to.
Speaker 2 (31:55):
Be able to get away with that stuff, and he wasn't. Okay,
let's talk.
Speaker 1 (31:58):
About war B, war point one, F war point two again.
Now they're closer together, so even peripherally he didn't. He
didn't underperform because of unlucky. It's it's showing he's not
that unlucky. That's I'm more concerned about this still, like
maybe not, but he has average a one to one
point two war but he's averaging. He's getting fourteen million
dollars a year in aav so even his league year
(32:20):
average of one would give him eight million. Even from
that metric, this is an overpay. There's a lot going on.
But he is pretty durable. He's made fifty plus appearances
in four of the last five years. He has one
hundred and five saves in his career, which his experience.
But sometimes he's got poor command. He relies heavily on
the slider. He's a two bitch guy. He's got a
change up, but it's just kind of there for show,
(32:43):
and the poor performance seems less about defense and more
about his stuff on his s fast ball and the
way he's commanding the zone. So he gets really hit
really hard sometimes. Now one caveat tipping. He might have
been tipping all year, so like, if that's that can
explain a lot. Kipping is a big deal, especially for
a guy who throws two pitches. So if they're picking
(33:04):
up on his fastball, it doesn't matter how our to throw. Man,
if you're picking up in your fastball and you're throwing
it right down in that all the time, you're just
gonna get lit, which happened quite a bit. He had
a lot of blow ups, especially in New York. So
I do think this is a little bit more of
an overpay. But again, get your money if you're if
a team's willing to give it to you, great, And
I think that this was more much more of a
(33:25):
bidding situation because the Orioles desperately need someone to finish
games because Filos Batista had shoulder surgery that he's not
gonna be ready for spring training and they don't know
what version of him they're going to get anyways, so
they don't want to They want some security out there.
Speaker 2 (33:40):
No, and they simply.
Speaker 1 (33:42):
Weren't willing to pay enough for Devin Williams, and that's
probably what this came from. Like he's the more affordable
option for more teams, which means there was more people
involved with that one, which means they wanted to get
done quickly because the Oriols have a lot of needs.
That's probably what came there, just like you know what,
go get him. It's a two year deal. In the
big scope, in the big scheme of things, twenty eight
(34:02):
million dollars just isn't huge. It just isn't We can
afford to like really miss on this more than we
can on a guy for five years, right, So I
think that's what happened, But it would it would lead
me to the conclusion that that was indeed a little
bit of an overpay. But I think the Orioles know that,
(34:24):
and there are they're okay with it. And if they're
okay with it, so am I?
Speaker 2 (34:29):
All right? Okay?
Speaker 1 (34:30):
So those are the big things that I think went
into these deals. So when these deals seem crazy because
of recent performance, it's important to ask a few other questions, Okay,
Like how big of the hole is the team that
this guy fills right for in his for example Helsy's case,
(34:52):
a big one, right that we need this specific thing
really badly that could drive the price up. Does he
fit with the rest of the teams ranks, meaning like
we're good defensively, this guy got hurt by bad defense.
We can like he's just gonna improve a little bit.
There's gonna be a little improvement.
Speaker 2 (35:09):
No matter what he does.
Speaker 1 (35:10):
He can throw the same thing as he did last year,
which wasn't good, and he'll still be a little bit better,
probably because we have.
Speaker 2 (35:15):
A better defense. That's a good question. What are what
are what other options are there out there? Right? Like?
Speaker 1 (35:21):
If this is exactly what you need and there's just
the guy behind him just isn't gonna fill that hole,
You only have one option. The other two guys are
too expensive. You only have one option, so you got
to go for it.
Speaker 2 (35:30):
And h is.
Speaker 1 (35:32):
Anyone else gonna bid us? Is there a bidding war?
Speaker 2 (35:35):
Like?
Speaker 1 (35:35):
Was there a bidding war involved? Probably you can kind
of intuit that. They usually don't tell you, but they
usually so ask those questions a little bit of education
for you.
Speaker 2 (35:43):
Just thought it was interesting. I hope you enjoyed it.
Speaker 1 (35:45):
But those were Are these guys that over paid? Or
are we all just freaking out for no reason? Usually
it's that second me
Are we seeing a bunch of free agency overpays here early?
I mean early ish in the offseason. I keep forgetting
it is December? Are we seeing some free agency overpays?
Including this gentleman Dylan c. So the goal with this
beginning segment of the show is to talk about three
(00:33):
pitchers that have recently signed pretty lucrative deals coming off
of well, not their best years okay, And in free agency,
what your year before sorry? In baseball, your year before
going into free agency is called a platform year. It
is the year that you are going to use in
(00:54):
your proposals to teams. You're going to set teams basically
reach out, they say.
Speaker 2 (01:00):
What are you looking for?
Speaker 1 (01:01):
You kind of give them a general like we're looking
for this we think the values around here, and the
teams either scoff at it or say that sounds pretty.
Speaker 2 (01:09):
Good or that's fairly close.
Speaker 1 (01:11):
You know there might be something there is there any
wiggle room with years or numbers, right, So you get
one of those three kind of replies and then you
figure out who might be in and who you can
then come back to with a proposal. So, like some
teams come to you, you sometimes you go to teams
and you just say, hey, this is happening over here.
(01:31):
We know you have a need here. We just want
to let you know so you don't miss the party.
And that is how these things usually get kicked off.
Sometimes they go.
Speaker 2 (01:39):
Really quickly, Sometimes they don't right.
Speaker 1 (01:42):
Sometimes there's you know, a bunch of teams in, sometimes
there's only one. Sometimes someone comes in right at the end.
That happened to email last year with the a's They
were not even on the radar until right at the end,
and they just kind of came out of nowhere. And
so like that, that happens, and it's very interesting because
that leads us to these numbers that we're getting. And
(02:05):
so what we're gonna do is we're going to go
over these three deals and we're going to look at
the statistically anecdotally and try to decide whether or not
this we believe that this is an overpay or if
it's kind of aligned with how these things work, and
then what other forces can be kind of thrown in
(02:25):
there that might drive the number up just a little
bit past where you think it is, that make it
feel more of an overpay than it is. There are
there are like details that might make it make more sense,
and so I went and found a bunch of them,
and I would like to share them with you. And
we're going to start with Dylan Ceese and his big
deal with the Toronto Blue Jays as reported by The Athletic.
(02:49):
Here for a seven year, two hundred and ten million
dollar deal to Toronto. If you're doing the math at home,
that is thirty million dollars a year, generally aav but
we do know there is a certain level of deferments happening.
Speaker 2 (03:02):
We don't know what exactly what that number is.
Speaker 1 (03:05):
Deferments are interesting in this context too, because of the
tax issue and the Canada thing, and there's a lot
that goes into that, much of which I'm still learning
as we go, but deferments are almost necessary at times.
And bonuses, which are where you're paid at your home
because you're only paid during the season, so your pay
(03:25):
TeX's only going in the season. The offseason they don't
come through, so like you can claim that you're somewhere
else if you're paid in the off seasons a bonus
because it could be given. Then those come to play
and are probably going to keep coming into play more
and more and more for Toronto. Because Toronto seems to
be spending money, and they do seem to be leaning
into those mechanics in order to get make it make
a little bit more sense, both for them and the players.
(03:47):
So there is deferre money. As of this writing, I
didn't know. We couldn't find what it was, but the
projection is around twenty six million dollars a year in
annual value a av Okay, So let's go through statistically
because as we all know, as many of us know
kind of intuitively but also know from watching, he had
(04:08):
a down year last year comparatively. If you remember in
twenty twenty two he had that stellar year where he
was the runner up for the cy Young with the
two to two era where he absolutely dominated in Chicago.
You know this was not that year. He was eight
and twelve with a four point five to five era.
He threw one hundred and sixty eight innings, which is good,
one hundred and fifty two hits, which is though it's
not quite as dominant as hes been in the past,
(04:30):
that's still good, right, And he struck out two hundred
fifteen guys in those hundred and sixty eight innings. So peripherally,
like the pieces are still there. He tends to walk
a higher number. He's walked seventy one guys in one
hundred and sixty eight innings, good for a nine point
eight percent walk right, the league average is about eight
point eight percent. You're gonna see a trend with all
three of these guys. They walked slightly above average. But
(04:51):
just like the other two guys, we're going to talk
about his improved through the year. So he walked way
more at the beginning of the year and then got
settled in a little bit, and that often happens, especially
for starters. But he has a twenty nine point eight
k rate, so like that has always been there. It's
been there through every single year. Good batter and different
And he had a one point three to three whip,
(05:11):
which is too high in my opinion, but a lot
of factors can factor in there. So like if we're
looking at potential wise, because a lot of this stuff
is based on projecting in the future, and he has
had an a style year and he's thrown a no hitter,
like he's shown that like if he clicks, there's if
there's another thing that just clicks for a few months,
he'll be he could be the best picture on the planet,
(05:32):
which oftentimes is enough to get a.
Speaker 2 (05:34):
Deal done like this.
Speaker 1 (05:37):
Okay, so let's talk a little bit about what happened
last year, and I'm gonna pull on a thread that
I pulled on a couple times earlier in this past
season to explain Devin Williams struggles even Ryan Helsley a
little bit after the tipping thing, and how big of
a difference in defense can make on this style of pitcher,
the high strikeout, high risk, high reward sometimes guy where
(06:02):
where runs come in bunches because it's usually related to
home runs or like damaged type hits. It's just the
way that it is. When you get lots of swing
of misses, you tend to give up more fly balls,
and more flyballs are tending to go out of the
park more because that is the hit. It's like a
trade off, right, So you might get more strikeouts, which
means you can strand a lot more guys if things
go your way, but also you're more you tend to
(06:24):
give up that through on home run more than stay
a Logan Web who is getting.
Speaker 2 (06:27):
Groundballed for groundball for ground ball.
Speaker 1 (06:29):
Now Logan Web gets groundball to death sometimes where it's
this four hole six hole, four hole, six hole, four hole,
six hole, and he can't get a strikeout and he
needs to get out of anybody can't because he gives
them a contact.
Speaker 2 (06:38):
That's the flip side. Dylan ces is not one of
those guys.
Speaker 1 (06:40):
The other two were about to talk about are also not,
so that tends to hurt them if their defense isn't good.
Speaker 2 (06:45):
So this is what happened last year.
Speaker 1 (06:47):
In terms of defense, the Padres were nineteenth and fielding
run value with negative one nineteenth.
Speaker 2 (06:52):
In the league, and they were.
Speaker 1 (06:55):
Also nineteenth in the league in out's above average with
negative seven. So all, as a team, even though they
have the Platinum Glove in the right field, overall, they're
a blow average defensive team. Okay, when you're a flyball guy, especially,
you need the outfield to run things down, things in
the gap, you need to be able to get some
help there once in a while, or things over their head,
(07:16):
you need to get help there once in a while. Right,
So if you have one outfielder or a revolving door
of two outfielders that just like you haven't really found
something that sticks, or even the infield just doesn't have
the range, and the things that are getting through the
infield usually don't that can hurt you, and those are
still earned. There's been a lipig argument online. This is
happening a lot. I think it's because I'm starting to
(07:37):
teach younger guys to pitch a little bit more here
up where I live, that I'm becoming aware of the
social media side of teaching and talking about value and players.
But like Derek Cheeter, everyone says he wasn't very defensively.
I believe Derekcheeter was a very a rock solid. He
made all the plays he should make. The problem was
he just didn't have the range the other guys had.
(07:58):
So things that were just hit we're just outs for
other guys, but he just didn't touch them at all,
so they were hits.
Speaker 2 (08:04):
Like that's a thing.
Speaker 1 (08:05):
That's a real thing, that that there is guys with
higher range that make more plays and that they just
get everything. It's not just making the play that they
you know, they feel it and they make the good throw.
He was good at that. It's the it's the ball
that's hit into the into the hole that another more
athletic person who has better lateral range actually gets a
(08:25):
glove on it. He doesn't even touch it, and one's
called an out and one's a hit. But no error
was made. So errors aren't the only thing that matter.
It's about range, all right. That happens, and he wasn't
on a great defensive team that factored in a little bit. Okay,
the on the flip side, the Blue Jays last year
were first in FRV which is fielding run value in
(08:49):
forty five and seventh in ouzo of average with twenty one.
So they're a very good defensive team. So that tells
me that they that might help the case that Dylan
Cees might get a little bit more lucky with us
because we have elite defenders and with no Bob Baschett,
which is the only guy that really brought them down anywhere,
is not going to be their shortstop next year, Bill
(09:11):
accounts to be andres him and Az who was a
goal glove second basement, so like that might be upgraded
as well. And Bobachett was that short a lot this
year too and they were still that good, so just
factor that and they might even be better next year.
There's a chance with Dylan bar Show center vaulton Vall
Show rather like they're just very good defensively, So that
could mean that a few more plays are made for
(09:31):
him that avoid that three run inning that make this
era look way different.
Speaker 2 (09:35):
That's usually what pitchers are.
Speaker 1 (09:36):
It's not guaranteed, but it probably will help his batting
average of balls put in play, which is always higher
for strikeout guys, remember, because you have less balls put
in play, and that means the hits you do give
up or a higher percentage of those hits. So therefore
that batting average will be higher. Is it's still higher
than his LEAGA or his his career average he had
(09:56):
a three twenty three career or BABBEB and his career
two ninety seven, so it's twenty five points above. I
like BABEB only when you are comparing it to the
same person. So if you're comparing a guy's BABEB this
year to their historical BABEB, that's a good way to
say unluckier un lucky. If you're comparing it to the league,
(10:17):
everyone's different, right. Round ball guys have lower babebs because
they give up more more in balls and play, and
so that same number of hits is a lower batting
average that they just have lower ones generally.
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Speaker 2 (11:32):
There's no like benchmark number that's good.
Speaker 1 (11:34):
It's only comparative to yourself, and if you are historically
a two seventy guy and you have a three point fifty,
something's going on, Like things are being hit.
Speaker 2 (11:43):
That were hits that weren't before. A lot of times
it's defense.
Speaker 1 (11:45):
A lot of times it's your location and you're throwing
you're just not locating very well.
Speaker 2 (11:49):
Sometimes it's both, right, So.
Speaker 1 (11:51):
His was a little bit high, but actually not super crazy,
So that doesn't fully explain only the defense, but it
probably was a little bit of the factor. Again, it
just takes one or two or three big hits to
account for like seven or eight more runs than you
would have given up, which could be a full run
on your ur right like that. That is how fast
these things can swing, especially if you're a reliever.
Speaker 2 (12:11):
So it's worth noting. So he had a little bad luck.
Speaker 1 (12:15):
He didn't command the ball ray well either, so a
lot of this is on him, but he and he
didn't have a great defense, so he just wasn't put
in the position to like get away with a lot
of stuff he like, you know what I mean, Sometimes
the margin vera is not as big. This year it wasn't,
so that could account for it because a lot of
the other peripheral numbers were there, So is he being
overpaid is the question. Let's look at how teams look
(12:38):
at it. A factor in war. I know everyone hates war.
War is important, So the two war numbers I look
at are B war and f wor B war is
baseball reference war, that is what happened, right, F war
factors in things that can be projected what we think
should have probably happened based on how he pitched. So
(12:58):
there's a big discrepancy between these. Sometimes there's some bad
luck when there's Sometimes projections aren't like full proof obviously,
but they do account for more stuff usually. So his
B war was a one point one, but his F
war was a three point four, so like the blue
days are like you know, I know he had a
four and a half RA, which is which is high ish,
(13:19):
but everything else lines up to what we expect from him,
and he's doing he's healthy, so like we still feel
better about this. So right now, this is last year
of the war. What one war was like seven or
seven point five million per on the lower end, Let's
say it's anywhere from like eight or nine million this
year because that's how markets work. So if he is
(13:41):
averaging first career, which he is, he's averaging on average
between both war numbers, he gets about two point five
to three point five.
Speaker 2 (13:46):
He's about a three war player a year.
Speaker 1 (13:49):
That would account to about twenty one million dollars or sorry,
twenty four million if we're saying it's eight million. So
if he's projected to be about a twenty four million
dollar player based on war and getting paid twenty six
after the deferments, it's pretty close, pretty close at least,
like they're making that distinction buying closed doors. And he's
(14:10):
also probably the prize starting pitcher, so that means other
teams are probably involved, which could account for that extra
two million, Like maybe they had to go two million
more in order to beat everybody else. That's when the
bidding war comes in. So we've established value, we know
what we want to do, and then you have to
beat another team's number. That is how this thing unfolds,
and that's why sometimes you can get this little push
(14:31):
past what maybe the maybe the average perfect value is.
Maybe you get a little bit more than that because
there was another team that was serious about it, and
the difference between getting you and not getting you is
worth that extra million or two, and I think that's
what we saw here. I genuinely do think that's what
we saw. And also there are a few other pros
I think that are worth mentioning. One, he's extremely durable.
(14:54):
I don't think people realize this, but he has thrown
thirty plus starts. I think it's thirty one plus starts,
actually five years in a row. Like he has thrown
over one hundred and sixty eight innings.
Speaker 2 (15:04):
It's actually his low. He is thrown in the.
Speaker 1 (15:06):
High one hundred one six seventy one eighty one ninety
innings every year for five straight years and made thirty
plus starts. So he has not been hurt. That is
a huge like think about the state of the game. Now,
that's a big deal. But that can't have.
Speaker 2 (15:22):
A flip side, which I'll talk about in a second.
And he is a potential.
Speaker 1 (15:25):
He has a no hitter, and he has a year
under his belt where he almost want to say young.
So it's in there. They feel like it's in there.
And if we can get it in Toronto, if we
can bring that out of him just a little bit more,
then we could potentially be getting more value than we're paying.
So I think that's pretty good. I think he could
potentially be an ace.
Speaker 2 (15:47):
He gets a little bit of radic.
Speaker 1 (15:48):
He does walk too many guys again, though, that's something
you can learn to be better at, right, So that
that can be a little bit of development. That could
be some mechanical que that could be something in your
brain that changes and you just suddenly don't walk people anymore.
He could, he could do that at any point. That's
part of getting becoming a better pitcher and going more
places to go.
Speaker 2 (16:05):
The better chance you have to do that.
Speaker 1 (16:07):
But I would say after being that healthy for that long,
he's thrown a lot of innings, and he throws hard.
Hard throwers who throw a lot of innings, it's pretty
much inevitable that you are going to go under.
Speaker 2 (16:19):
The knife for a year at some point.
Speaker 1 (16:22):
Gerk Cole did it last year. He was it was
almost guaranteed, like you, they it was built in. They
knew it was going to happen at some point. He's
still worth his contract. So there is a chance though
that that probably happens in the next seven years. I'llah
Like Chris Sale, right, Chris Sale was healthy for eight years,
Like literally didn't miss anything for eight years and then
had three or four years where he was still it
(16:43):
was it was a struggle. It was a struggle for
a while as he got older, but he threw tons
of innings, so like there's only so many innings you
can throw, right, you can't say you can't say one
hundred percent.
Speaker 2 (16:52):
Healthy for fifteen years anymore.
Speaker 1 (16:54):
Like it's just or you're not competing, You're you're out
of the game for that because you're not throwing very hard,
because you're trying not to get hurt, like you have
to chance it. And unfortunately that's just the way that
it's it comes out. So there's a chance that that
shows up at some point. But I'm sure they know
that and they're willing to sacrifice one of those years
in order to get the upside on the back end, right.
(17:15):
I don't like that it's like that, but it is.
It's just it's just work. Hazard man workers comp any
job that, especially physical labor, should be should have guarantees
that as long as you give everything you got, if
you get hurt, you still are going to be taken
care of until you can get healthy. And because sometimes
stuff happens, and that's just the nature of the game.
(17:36):
So do I think that that's an overpay, Maybe just
just a bit, But I think that the bidding war
might account for that, and that is normal and this
is not outside of the norm. Do I think he'll
fulfill this contract. It just depends on how consistent he
is in those seven years. But the potential is there
(17:57):
and that's what they're paying for. So I think this
deal is a little bit better than it's being given
credit for. And I think it was just a sticker
shock that happened that a lot of people are like,
he was not very good last year, what do we
do it?
Speaker 3 (18:08):
Like?
Speaker 1 (18:08):
But he's been He has a lot of the things
that a team would want, especially the health and the ceiling.
And if you are confident in your ability to develop players,
then you go get a Dyllanci's because he's shown that.
He's shown it before they've seen it. We've seen it
on the mound, So you pay premium for that, right, Okay,
So that's my greade on that.
Speaker 2 (18:30):
Number.
Speaker 1 (18:30):
Two, Old d Willie Devin Williams signs a three year,
fifty one million dollars with the New York Mets. They
are basically hedging against Edwin Diaz not coming back, though
he is by all accounts negotiating to come back. Devin
had a down year with the Yankees. We've talked to
(18:52):
nauseum about this, but he does do a lot of
the similar things to Edwin Diaz.
Speaker 2 (18:59):
Right.
Speaker 1 (18:59):
He goes on these streaks where he's unhittable. He strikes
out the world. Yes, it gets dicey there sometimes a
little bit in cardiac, but he also can punched out everybody.
And he finished very strong and had a very good
showing in the playoff series. He played, he pitched really well,
so he from August tenth on he was nails. He
was what we saw. But as we established in the
(19:21):
What's Wrong with Devin Williams video on YouTube, his defense
was not great and he was used to being on
a Brewers team that was very good defensively. Every year
they're always top five defensive team, and he benefited from
that because he is a flyball guy. Strikes out a
lot of guys, and he's a very high babbab usually
unless your defense is incredible and the balls are being
(19:43):
run down. So let's go through the stats and the
deal real quick. Three years, fifty one million dollars deal.
It's actually fifteen million of that fifty one or third,
so that's five million from each year. So that brings
the AAV down to it was seventeen down to twelve.
And then he's getting paid two million a year in
bonuses because presumably he lives somewhere with a lower state
(20:05):
tax rate than New York City, which is pretty much
everywhere by California. I'm assuming he probably lives in Florida
or Texas or I mean, he might live in Washington,
I don't know, maybe in one of the no income
no income tax states, which means of those two million
dollars every year are tax like thirteen percent or eleven
I think it's twelve percent twelve point one percent less,
(20:27):
So that's not nothing.
Speaker 2 (20:28):
That's a quarter of a million.
Speaker 1 (20:29):
Dollars in realized real money, which then helps offset the deferments.
Speaker 2 (20:36):
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Speaker 3 (20:37):
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Speaker 1 (21:41):
There's a lot of stuff moving around here, so that
number is really big, But like the deferments, also lower
the value of it because it's paid later, and so
the AAV projection is more around Instead of the fifteen million,
it's more around the twelve thirteen million a year in
real money. That's how much it's really actually worth. Locker room,
and I know probably more like fourteen, but so you
(22:03):
can go by seventeen, I'm gonna go use the fourteen
number and see if fourteen million dollars a year is
the right price for Devin Williams. Last year didn't go
as well as it should. He had a four to
seven nine ERA, sixty two inks pitch, forty five hits allowed,
that's pretty good. He had ninety k's that's really good.
Twenty five walks a little bit high, but again he
(22:24):
got better as the year went on, which is good
for a thirty four point seven percent k rate and
a nine point seven percent walk rate, which is again
about one percent above average.
Speaker 2 (22:33):
He's still got to work on that. It is just
something he does.
Speaker 1 (22:36):
But he had a won one to three whip, which
is that's not a ton of base run Like that's solid,
Like that's not a ton of guys on base. It
was just like he's getting hurt by the random homer
every once in a while. He had fifteen holds and
eighteen saves, and he only blew four saves the whole year,
including holds, so like, I know they were there. I
think they came like three or three of the four
came in like two weeks, so we remember that. But like,
(22:57):
for the most part, he did the job that he
was out there to go, even though it was messy
sometimes an he finished year really strong.
Speaker 2 (23:03):
So what happened last year? Let's talk about the defenses again.
Speaker 1 (23:05):
The Yankees were twelve in fielding run value at eight
and they were eighteenth and outs above average with negative four.
And we also established in that video before that the
vast majority of the numbers bringing these numbers down were
Anthony Volpi and Jason Demingez and left, like those two
guys were really really struggled defensively, and everyone else was
pretty good, well above average. Bellinger was good, Judge was good,
(23:28):
Ultimate when he was playing first was good. Ben Rice's average.
He's not great, but it's possible. So like, there's there's
a lot going on there, but they're just a slightly
below average defensive team. It's not as bad as you
think it is, but it's not great.
Speaker 2 (23:46):
Okay.
Speaker 1 (23:47):
Also, there is a truck backing up, because of course,
I'm sure they'll back up for the next twenty to
thirty five minutes though, so I apologize for that, but
there's nothing gonna do about it, oh.
Speaker 2 (23:55):
Or they won't great.
Speaker 1 (23:57):
Moving on back to the defenses. Okay, now he's going
to the Mets, who were worse than the Yankees, so
that's not great. But the Mets were nineteenth in FRV
with a negative five and twenty first with outs above
average was negative thirteen. But they added Marcus Simeon, who
was a plus seven outs above average by himself at
(24:21):
second base, so him and Lindor and up the middle
will make a big difference. They kind of had a
revolving door of second baseman, so that should help. They
should improve, and they're looking to improve their outfield at
moving Nemo and moving on. So Bill accounts they will
get better. But do I think they're gonna get like
top of the league better?
Speaker 2 (24:37):
Probably not.
Speaker 1 (24:38):
They'll probably be like an average above average team, So
I don't know if he's going to benefit a ton
from that. His BABEP was two ninety nine, when his
career average is two seventy. Now, that was crazy high.
It was like three forty for a lot of the year,
and then he started to have stuff go his way
a little bit, especially when when Volpi got a little
(24:58):
bit less playing time and Jason Emia started a tune
and they they got him out of left field.
Speaker 2 (25:03):
Basically when they got.
Speaker 1 (25:04):
Kabierro his babbitt put better got much much better. So, uh,
he's really hurt by defense. Devin Williams is really hurt
by poor defense, and he always has been so, and
he's always had good defense until he went to the Yankis.
Speaker 2 (25:17):
So we'll see if the Mets.
Speaker 1 (25:18):
Can, like if they have the type of defense that
he can, he can get away with some of the
stuff he does.
Speaker 2 (25:23):
But I think in general it.
Speaker 1 (25:26):
Will improve, and he might it might be okay. In
war he had a point three B war and a
one to one F war. Again big discrepancy. So they're like, yeah,
he got a little bit unlucky with some defense stuff
and some timing stuff and that made it look a
lot worse than it maybe was. I agree with that statement.
Though he hasn't been He wasn't as dominant as it
(25:46):
was before just general, even the underlying numbers weren't as good,
but they were more in line right, and he just
wasn't getting the results until August, and then he started
getting those results and then we saw what he what
good version of him is. So he had to get
it's about a one point one to a one point
four war every year. Again, we're saying eight million per war.
That takes us to what ten to twelve million a
(26:11):
year ish as a fair value just based on war.
So he's getting seventeen AAV. But again we're gonna take
that down to fourteen. Still a little bit of an overpay,
I think, and even with the deferrals, it's still like
fourteen fourteen and a half. So yes, he's maybe making
a little bit more money, especially with a three year deal,
a little bit more money than his value shows from
last year. But again he has track here record before that,
(26:33):
so maybe that adds a couple more years. And also
he's one of the premier relievers on the market, which
then does what creates a little bit of a bidding war,
makes him, makes him affordable and him and like Edwin Diaz,
he's worth more like he's more expensive.
Speaker 2 (26:48):
Than Devin Williams.
Speaker 1 (26:49):
So maybe the team's like, we're not gonna be able
to get Edwin Diaz, We're not gonna be able to coax.
Speaker 2 (26:54):
Him away from the Mets.
Speaker 1 (26:55):
They're just gonna outbid us anyways, So let's go for
the number two guy. That's Devin Williams, and then maybe
there's a bit more that bumped it up a little bit.
Speaker 2 (27:01):
So is this an overpay? I think slightly.
Speaker 1 (27:10):
Maybe I'm leaning that way, but again I think it's
accounted by the way that free agency works and the
way that the market is. Where he sits in that
like draft, in that depth chart, it's pretty close. He
maybe got a little scooch more than I would have guessed.
I would have said, like maybe three forty five that
would have felt more close to right on. But again,
(27:31):
I love it when players can get just a little
bit more. Again, it's about furthering the market as well,
so that job was done as well. But I don't
think I don't think this is a crazy deal either.
Maybe the years is crazy. Maybe it was a two
year deal would have been more since maybe opt outs
after every year would be different, like we're trying to replatform.
Speaker 2 (27:50):
I don't know. Those things weren't in there though.
Speaker 1 (27:51):
So maybe it's a little bit risky, just barely, But
like I think he's going to be fine, and he's
played in New York for a year, so he knows what
to expect, so it's not horrible. And if they got
a win, das. I'm feeling really happy about it. Okay,
Now our last deal before we move on.
Speaker 2 (28:10):
Ryan Elsley signs a two year, twenty eight million dollar
deal with the Baltimore Orioles, and he is an.
Speaker 1 (28:17):
Opt out after the first year player option, so we
as one player option opt out when there is a
player option, like what Blake Snell did with the San
Francisco Giants, what Pete Alonzo did with the Mets. When
there's a player after the first year with a high
av that is a replatform a year. They're hoping they
can go recoup some of their value and then possibly
(28:37):
test free agency again to get the big payday. So
it's basically just a bridge. It's called a bridge deal.
This feels like a bridge deal with some security in
the back end, meaning like if it doesn't work out,
I still make that for I can still opt in,
make that fourteen million in the back and they have
to pay me. No one wants to have to approach
it that way, but that is why that's there.
Speaker 2 (28:58):
Okay, So that's.
Speaker 1 (28:59):
Fourteen million dollars a year. As far as I know,
there's no deferments. And this is his last year. He
had a four point five era fifty six innings, sixty
one hits allout.
Speaker 2 (29:07):
That's a red flag for me.
Speaker 1 (29:08):
Giving up more hits and innings as a reliever is
a red flag, especially when you throw one hundred sixty
three ks, still not a super high k rate and
twenty five twenty five walks for twenty five percent krate
and a nine point nine percent walk rate, which is.
Speaker 2 (29:21):
The highest of the three we've talked about. With a
one point five whip.
Speaker 1 (29:25):
Those numbers are not as good as the other two.
Like his underlying numbers aren't as good as the other two.
They're not screaming that he just had a weird year
with like unlucky. There was something else. There was something else.
He had twenty one saves a single hold and nine
blown saves, so he was he was like thirty percent
(29:46):
of time not getting the job done.
Speaker 2 (29:47):
That's also a big red flag.
Speaker 1 (29:49):
But remember he had a three with the cards at
CRA and a seven point two with the Mets, so
a lot of this had happened with the Mets.
Speaker 2 (29:55):
We know about the tipping that happened. But I am one.
Speaker 1 (29:58):
There's one big concern for me, and that's he gave
up way more hits and struck out less guys this year.
Speaker 2 (30:02):
Those are not good. Right.
Speaker 1 (30:05):
You can say hit high hits but still high strikeouts.
Maybe they're unlucky. Higher hits and lower strikeouts means it
might be stuff related. That's concerning to me. Even though
we didn't see a lower velossity. It could be command related.
So we're going to talk about that in a minute.
But was how much did defense have to do with it? Again,
this is another red flag. Didn't have a lot to
do with it. The cards were ninth in FRV and
(30:27):
with twenty one and tighten first with the Cubs with
thirty six outs above average, so they had a very
good defense. And though he had a three which helped,
the other numbers didn't really improve. Like the strikeoud numbers
weren't better, and he still gave lots of hits. He
was better with them, but he still had a three
twenty seven bab up with them when his career average
is a two to seventy seven. So he's still fifty
(30:49):
points above with the team that was good defensively, that's
not great. It's again we're now possibly it could be
location or stuff related.
Speaker 2 (30:58):
Now he's with the Orioles.
Speaker 1 (31:00):
They're twenty second in both FRV and out above average
with negative twenty two and negative twenty four. So he's
going to a much much, much worse defensive team, a
worse defensive team than the.
Speaker 2 (31:11):
Mets were last year, which again not great.
Speaker 1 (31:15):
So we ended the year with a three forty four BABUB,
which is sixty seven points above his career, So there
is some unluckiness.
Speaker 2 (31:22):
But also I went and looked at fastball command.
Speaker 1 (31:27):
It was right down the middle, a lot like a
lot of just middle, and his slider was the only
pitch that got people out. His fastball was absolutely shell
ACKed all year, and that is concerning for a guy
who through was ninety nine to one hundred and one.
I don't know why, Like, even with that command, you
should still be getting miss hits, but they were just
on it. And so there's something. There's something with the
(31:50):
fastball that's not working very well. Even when you miss
your spot and when you throw that hard, you're supposed to.
Speaker 2 (31:55):
Be able to get away with that stuff, and he wasn't. Okay,
let's talk.
Speaker 1 (31:58):
About war B, war point one, F war point two again.
Now they're closer together, so even peripherally he didn't. He
didn't underperform because of unlucky. It's it's showing he's not
that unlucky. That's I'm more concerned about this still, like
maybe not, but he has average a one to one
point two war but he's averaging. He's getting fourteen million
dollars a year in aav so even his league year
(32:20):
average of one would give him eight million. Even from
that metric, this is an overpay. There's a lot going on.
But he is pretty durable. He's made fifty plus appearances
in four of the last five years. He has one
hundred and five saves in his career, which his experience.
But sometimes he's got poor command. He relies heavily on
the slider. He's a two bitch guy. He's got a
change up, but it's just kind of there for show,
(32:43):
and the poor performance seems less about defense and more
about his stuff on his s fast ball and the
way he's commanding the zone. So he gets really hit
really hard sometimes. Now one caveat tipping. He might have
been tipping all year, so like, if that's that can
explain a lot. Kipping is a big deal, especially for
a guy who throws two pitches. So if they're picking
(33:04):
up on his fastball, it doesn't matter how our to throw. Man,
if you're picking up in your fastball and you're throwing
it right down in that all the time, you're just
gonna get lit, which happened quite a bit. He had
a lot of blow ups, especially in New York. So
I do think this is a little bit more of
an overpay. But again, get your money if you're if
a team's willing to give it to you, great, And
I think that this was more much more of a
(33:25):
bidding situation because the Orioles desperately need someone to finish
games because Filos Batista had shoulder surgery that he's not
gonna be ready for spring training and they don't know
what version of him they're going to get anyways, so
they don't want to They want some security out there.
Speaker 2 (33:40):
No, and they simply.
Speaker 1 (33:42):
Weren't willing to pay enough for Devin Williams, and that's
probably what this came from. Like he's the more affordable
option for more teams, which means there was more people
involved with that one, which means they wanted to get
done quickly because the Oriols have a lot of needs.
That's probably what came there, just like you know what,
go get him. It's a two year deal. In the
big scope, in the big scheme of things, twenty eight
(34:02):
million dollars just isn't huge. It just isn't We can
afford to like really miss on this more than we
can on a guy for five years, right, So I
think that's what happened, But it would it would lead
me to the conclusion that that was indeed a little
bit of an overpay. But I think the Orioles know that,
(34:24):
and there are they're okay with it. And if they're
okay with it, so am I?
Speaker 2 (34:29):
All right? Okay?
Speaker 1 (34:30):
So those are the big things that I think went
into these deals. So when these deals seem crazy because
of recent performance, it's important to ask a few other questions, Okay,
Like how big of the hole is the team that
this guy fills right for in his for example Helsy's case,
(34:52):
a big one, right that we need this specific thing
really badly that could drive the price up. Does he
fit with the rest of the teams ranks, meaning like
we're good defensively, this guy got hurt by bad defense.
We can like he's just gonna improve a little bit.
There's gonna be a little improvement.
Speaker 2 (35:09):
No matter what he does.
Speaker 1 (35:10):
He can throw the same thing as he did last year,
which wasn't good, and he'll still be a little bit better,
probably because we have.
Speaker 2 (35:15):
A better defense. That's a good question. What are what
are what other options are there out there? Right? Like?
Speaker 1 (35:21):
If this is exactly what you need and there's just
the guy behind him just isn't gonna fill that hole,
You only have one option. The other two guys are
too expensive. You only have one option, so you got
to go for it.
Speaker 2 (35:30):
And h is.
Speaker 1 (35:32):
Anyone else gonna bid us? Is there a bidding war?
Speaker 2 (35:35):
Like?
Speaker 1 (35:35):
Was there a bidding war involved? Probably you can kind
of intuit that. They usually don't tell you, but they
usually so ask those questions a little bit of education
for you.
Speaker 2 (35:43):
Just thought it was interesting. I hope you enjoyed it.
Speaker 1 (35:45):
But those were Are these guys that over paid? Or
are we all just freaking out for no reason? Usually
it's that second me
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