October 27, 2025 • 34 mins
Do you consider yourself lucky? Or do you consider yourself have earned it by working hard? Or, is it both? Our guest today is Dr. Michael Orkin, is a statistics expert and he shares with us some surprising insights.
TODAY'S WIN-WIN:
In order to increase your chances, you need to put yourself in positions where opportunities can occur and create more chance.
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- Connect with our guest on social:
- https://www.linkedin.com/in/dr-mike-orkin-5600584/recent-activity/all/
ABOUT OUR GUEST:
DR. MICHAEL ORKIN is a distinguished professor, consultant, researcher, and author with a wealth of experience that offers unique insights into the concepts of chance and luck. He holds a BA in Mathematics and a PhD in Statistics from the University of California, Berkeley. Throughout his career, Dr. Orkin has made significant contributions to the field of statistics, particularly in the gaming industry, where he frequently serves as a consultant. His extensive research has been published in numerous academic papers, and he has delivered invited talks on these topics, including a notable presentation at Google Tech Talks. Dr. Orkin is a Professor Emeritus of Statistics at California State University, East Bay, and he currently serves on the mathematics faculty at Berkeley City College. His expertise and experience make him a leading authority on the statistical principles underlying games, chance, and the role of luck in various aspects of life.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Tom DuFore (00:01):
Welcome to the Multiply Your Success podcast,
where each week we helpgrowth-minded entrepreneurs and
franchise leaders take the nextstep in their expansion journey.
I'm your host, Tom Dufour, CEOof Big Sky franchise team.
And as we open today, I'mwondering if you consider
yourself lucky, or do youconsider yourself to have earned
(00:23):
it by working hard and makinggood choices?
Or maybe is it a little bit ofboth?
Well, our guest today is Dr.
Michael Orkin, and he's thestatistics expert, and he shares
with us some very surprisinginsights.
Now, Dr.
Orkin is a distinguishedprofessor, consultant,
researcher, and author with awealth of experience that offers
(00:45):
unique insights into theconcepts of chance and luck.
He holds a bachelor's inmathematics and a PhD in
statistics from the Universityof California in Berkeley.
Throughout his career, Dr.
Orkin has made significantcontributions to the field of
statistics, particularly in thegaming industry, where he
frequently serves as aconsultant.
His extensive research has beenpublished in numerous academic
(01:08):
papers, and he has deliveredinvited talks on these topics,
including notable presentationsto Google Tech Talks.
Dr.
Orkin is a professor emeritusof statistics at California
State University, East Bay, andhe currently serves on the
mathematics faculty at BerkeleyCity College.
His expertise and experiencemake him a leading authority on
statistical principles,underlying games, chance, and
(01:30):
the role of luck in variousaspects of life.
You're going to find this onereally, really fun and
interesting.
So let's go ahead and jump intomy interview with Dr.
Michael Orkin.
Dr. Michael Orkin (01:41):
Okay, my name is Mike Orkin, and my my
official title is I have a PhDand I'm a professor at Berkeley
City College in Berkeley,California.
But right now I do a lot ofconsulting.
I have my own consultingbusiness, and I also do a fair
amount of writing.
I've written a couple of booksrecently, and I'm also on have
(02:06):
an active Substack account rightnow.
Tom DuFore (02:09):
Fantastic.
Well, purpose really of wantingto have you on the show is
really to start talking aboutdata.
And I think the title of yourbook, I think would be a great
place to start.
The title is The Story ofChance Beyond the Margin of
Error.
And I'd love for you to talkabout some of what led you just
to write the book.
Dr. Michael Orkin (02:29):
I've been in this business, in this game for
many years.
My PhD was in statistics andprobability.
And I've been most of my careerinvolved in things involving
chance and games.
I could do a lot of consultingfor game developers who want to
need a professional assessmentof whether the game is a game of
(02:50):
skill.
And so I teach mainly onlinenow.
My students, the class I teachis elementary statistics or
beginning statistics.
And so rather than have thestudents buy an expensive
textbook, 50% of which we neveruse, I decided I'd use my own
material, write my own material,so to speak.
(03:11):
Now I've done this before inthe past, but now things have
changed a lot.
And so I wrote a book.
The second edition is out now.
It's called The Story of ChanceBeyond the Margin of Error.
You can get it on Amazon.
And I wrote it in such a waythat it would be interesting to
the general reader, not just tothe introductory statistics
(03:32):
student.
And that makes it interestingto the introductory statistics
student as well.
It covers a little bit of math,but it's got mainly concepts
about chance and elementarystatistical topics that are
important for anyone who runs asmall business or a medium
business who doesn't have a teamof statisticians working for
(03:55):
them.
Tom DuFore (03:56):
Thank you for that overview.
And I know in speaking ofchance and just thinking about
the effects of chance, just talka little bit about that and
what that means.
Dr. Michael Orkin (04:06):
Okay, so let me start with a little analogy.
The Mega Millions Lottery.
The Mega Millions Lottery, I'llgive you a couple of little
examples like this.
The Mega Millions Lottery isplayed across this country.
The chance, the jackpot, theychanged the rules a little bit a
couple months ago, but it'sstill essentially the same game.
But now the minimum jackpotsize is $50 million.
(04:28):
And the chance of winning it isabout one in $290 million.
And so that is uh extremelyunlikely.
You can play if you if you buy50 tickets a week, you'll win on
the average of once uh everyabout 115,000 years.
So it's very unlikely that youwin the lottery.
(04:50):
But there are winnersperiodically.
Every few weeks, in fact,there's typically a winner.
You can't predict exactly whichdrawings there'll be a winner,
but it happens with surprisingfrequency.
Not every drawing.
When nobody wins, the jackpotprize gets bigger because the
current jackpot rolls over tothe next one, so more tickets
(05:12):
are sold, and which increasesthe chance of someone winning.
So here's the here's the here'sthe interesting thing.
Why why are there winners?
Well, there are winners becauseso many tickets are sold.
And that brings up this veryimportant fact about chance that
some people call the law ofvery large numbers, which is
(05:32):
given enough opportunity, anyweird thing will happen just due
to chance.
Well, winning the lotteryjackpot is certainly a weird
thing because it's so unlikely.
So any weird thing means veryunlikely.
That's why there are winners.
But so how does that serve as ametaphor for other things?
(05:53):
Well, for one thing, it meansthat if you're going to be
successful, first of all, youhave to realize that chance
plays a role.
If you think back on yoursuccess points over your career,
you will realize that chancewas involved.
Oh, I just happened to get thisparticular consulting job that
(06:14):
then led into a full-time jobthat then led into uh running my
business.
So chance plays a big role.
And in order to have that, inorder to, you like to use the
term multiplier, in order tomultiply that chance, you have
to put yourself in a positionwhere there's opportunity.
(06:36):
So get yourself in a position,you're not gonna be able to
force things, but you can getyourself in a position where
there's opportunity for success.
Now, I can't give a magic rulebecause it depends on what
business you're in.
But if you just sort of hideaway and think, oh yeah, I'm
gonna just be be great, you haveto do stuff.
(06:58):
You have to get out there andyou have to allow for
opportunity to take, to takeeffect.
So that's one thing they talkabout.
Tom DuFore (07:06):
Fantastic.
And one of those things that asI'm thinking about the effects
of chance, you mentioned thelottery.
It makes me also think aboutdata interpretations or maybe
misinterpretations.
And so I'd love for you to justtalk about data analysis,
analyzing things in that regard.
Dr. Michael Orkin (07:25):
Okay, so Tom, that's that's an extremely
important thing these daysbecause of the availability of
data and the availability ofsoftware to analyze it.
So now everybody can be a datascientist, doesn't mean that
they're particularly good at it,but data is at our fingertips
thanks to the internet andthanks to recent advances like
computing power, very fastchips, and of course, the
(07:50):
emergence of AI.
But people can still haveaccess to data, and it's it's a
double-edged sword because it'svery good, but on the other
hand, you can make mistakes ininterpreting it.
So I'll give you a coupleclassic examples.
Around the time that the poliovaccine was being developed, a
researcher, this was way back inthe late 1950s, a researcher
(08:15):
discovered, much to hissurprise, that there was a
positive correlation, a verystrong positive correlation
between polio, between polioincidents and Coca-Cola sales.
Now, this was before thevaccine was developed.
The vaccine basically wiped outpolio, but this was while it
(08:36):
was being developed.
People were looking around totry to find the causes of polio.
So this got a lot of pressbecause there are lots of people
who think that, you know, junkfood and soft drinks are not
good for you, which may be true.
However, does it cause polio?
Well, that's what thisresearcher's conclusion was.
But further investigationshowed that drinking Coca-Cola
(09:00):
does not cause polio at all.
It has no effect.
The problem was this was anobservational, but the
researchers' study data wascorrect.
It was observational data.
And observational data issomething in which you can find
correlations, but correlationdoes not mean causation.
(09:21):
So that's like the first thingI say to a class.
Correlation does not meancausation.
In this case, Coca-Cola andCoca-Cola cells and polio have a
strong positive correlation.
But there's a hidden variable.
That hidden variable is theweather.
As the temperature increases,more people drink soft drinks,
(09:45):
and the polio virus gets moreactive.
So those the so that theweather makes those two things
correlated, but they the theyhave nothing to do with each
other.
One does not cause the other.
So people make that mistake allthe time.
People who should know better.
Tom DuFore (10:02):
I know before the show we were talking about this
octopus's story.
Tell us about that.
Okay, well, that's a veryinteresting story.
Dr. Michael Orkin (10:09):
It's a true story.
A few years ago, so this storyis about predicting the results
of European soccer matches.
And there was an octopus namedPaul the Octopus who was kept at
a zoo in Germany.
And Paul the Octopus wastrained to pick the results of
(10:30):
soccer matches.
Now, sports betting is one ofthe most popular gambling
activities in the country rightnow, thanks to FanDuel and
DraftKings and online sportsbetting, which has become
available over the last fewyears.
But Paul only picked soccergames, and his handlers would
put out two bowls of food, onefor each team, whenever there's
a soccer match, especiallyplayoff matches.
(10:52):
And when whichever bowl of foodPaul the Octopus picked, that
would be his prediction for thewinner of the soccer match.
So, okay, great.
You can train an octopi octopiare very smart, and you can
train them to do things likepick some food out of a bowl,
one of one of two bowls.
(11:12):
So, you know, lose a publicitystunt.
But then Paul picked thewinners of 12 out of 14 soccer
matches, which has a very lowprobability of doing it if
you're just guessing.
So he became famous.
And of course, Paul's handlersbecame famous, got a lot of
press.
And so the chance of doing thatis less than one in a hundred.
(11:36):
You could think about it, well,maybe there could be some
cheating, like there's always afavorite and an underdog in any
sports event.
And so maybe Paul's handlerswere putting the better food in
the favorites bowl.
Maybe, maybe other things weregoing on.
But still, he picked 12 out of14.
And putting the better food inthe favorites bowl was kind of,
(11:58):
it wasn't probably wasn't thereason.
So what was the reason?
Well, maybe Paul was skilled.
Uh to pyre very smart animals,as I said.
But there's another reason, andit's the same reason that
people win lottery jackpots.
Namely, it turns out there werelots of other animals
predicting soccer matches.
There was a death cat inRussia, there was a monkey,
(12:21):
there was all kinds of otheranimals.
So the question is, why dopeople win lottery jackpots?
And the answer is because somany tickets are played.
And the correct question isn'twhat's the chance that this guy
won?
It's what's the chance thatsomeone wins, which grows as
more people buy tickets.
Well, the same with Paul.
(12:42):
When you add in all the otheranimals and you ask the question
a little differently and say,what's the chance that some
animal wins, then thatprobability becomes much larger.
So that's the real explanationof why Paul won.
And it's an interestingexplanation, same as the lottery
explanation, because in thiscase, if you're just doing
(13:04):
things at random, then a winneris determined not just by that
winner, not just by Paul and hisexpertise or by the person who
wins a letter jackpot, but byall the losers.
Because the more losers youhave, the more likely it is that
someone or thing will be thewinner.
So that's another example ofthis weird phenomenon about
(13:28):
chance that's given enoughopportunity, that is, in this
case, lots of animals predictingsoccer matches, there will be
any weird thing will happen justdue to chance, or in this case,
there will be a winner.
So that's the story of Paul,which is the same as the story
of the lottery.
Tom DuFore (13:44):
Aaron Powell You started talking a little bit
about some of the commonmisconceptions around these
areas.
Are there others you thinkmight be worth noting or
discussing here?
Dr. Michael Orkin (13:52):
Aaron Powell The landscape has changed over
the last two years because ofthe computing power, because of
the ability to f to do things ona computer.
And so that's something thatpeople have to realize.
And when you're if you'retrying to be successful nowadays
in running your business, thenyou have to open yourself up to
(14:13):
some.
So of course, your skill isobviously a key part of it, but
there's also a chance element.
And nowadays you have to sortof expose yourself to
opportunity and make sure you'reyou're out there and getting
publicity or just getting yourbrand known is different than it
was, say, even 10 years ago,because now there are podcasts,
(14:37):
as we know, and there are theirsub stack.
I have a sub stack, but it'sit's just to promote some of my
writing.
That's one one element.
Nowadays, people need tounderstand that the way of
getting your getting your brandknown is different from the way
it was just a few years ago.
Also, artificial intelligence,AI, is an extremely powerful
(15:01):
thing, but it makes mistakes.
So you can just look up AIhallucinations on Google and
find all kinds of situationswhere that happens.
So you have to take AI with agrain of salt.
Having large amounts of datapresents another issue, and it's
good, it's a good thing, but Imean, having large amounts of
data is a good thing.
But a few years ago, a friendand I wrote some software, fine
(15:25):
patterns in football games.
Professional football, we alsodo professional basketball, NBA,
NFL.
We found these incrediblepatterns.
By patterns, I mean like, oh,the New England Patriots won 10
times out of 11 every when theywere playing on the road, they'd
lost a previous game, and theywere underdogs or something like
(15:47):
that.
I just made that.
So that's called the situation.
We didn't write this program tobecome sports betters.
We wrote it to demonstrate whatsearching data or data mining
can do in terms of finding crazypatterns just due to
randomness.
So you have to be careful whenyou find crazy patterns that
(16:09):
they may just be due to chanceand the fact that data is so
widely available and lots ofdata, and the ability to search
it.
So here's another example.
Most of you out there mayprobably have heard of SBF or
Sam Bankman-Fried, as he's ashis name is, who was the crypto
(16:30):
king a few years ago.
Crypto's back in the news thesedays, because there's lots of
people who want to make cryptoimportant.
But uh Sam Bankman-Fried wasone of the originators, and he
became, he had a couple ofwebsites, and he's a young guy.
He went to MIT, he had a degreein physics and math, and he was
(16:52):
a very smart guy.
And by the age of 30, he was abillionaire because of his
crypto websites and because ofhis activity in buying and
selling different crypto stocks.
So a guy named Zeke Foe wrote abook called Number Go Up.
It was all about SamBankman-Fried, and he
(17:13):
interviewed him many times innumerous interviews, and it
turns out that uh SamBankman-Fried knew about certain
things in the laws of chance.
Namely, there's somethingcalled expected value or EV.
EV means you have a good bet ina certain sense.
For example, if I played a gameof craps in a casino and bet on
(17:36):
seven, I won't I will havenegative EV because the casino
always makes a profit.
So I'm only doing it for fun.
I know I'll lose money in thelong run.
If I bet on seven, there's aone-sixth chance I'll win and a
five-sixth chance I'll lose.
And if I mean the payoff oddsare four to one, so the casino
has a 17% ED.
(17:58):
That is, the casino has apositive expected value.
So what does that say?
It doesn't say anything aboutme getting lucky on the next
bet.
What it says is that if I dothis over and over again, I'll
eventually lose, and the casinowill eventually win.
Casino doesn't need to thinkabout eventually, because if
there are lots of peopleplaying, they win almost every
(18:20):
time.
Okay, now are there any othercasino games that have give the
player a little betteropportunity?
And one of them is blackjack.
Blackjack, for an ordinaryplayer, doesn't is basically a
slightly negative EV, but peoplewho know how to count cards,
and this was first popularizedin the early 1960s, can have
(18:42):
positive EV.
They can have about overallabout a 2% advantage over the
casino in ideal playingconditions, which are hard to
find these days.
But what does that mean?
That means if you keep playing,you'll win in the long run.
And Sam Bankman-Fried knewabout positive EV.
In the stock market, there aremany opportunities with positive
(19:04):
EV, although it's much harderto compute because you don't
really know the probabilities.
However, let's go back toblackjack.
Let's say you have a 2% chanceof winning each hand.
It's actually sort of averagedout, but let's just say that.
So that means if I play andplay and play hours and hours
and hours, I'll win.
And how much I win depends onhow big my bankroll is.
(19:25):
But let's say I've goteverything I have.
Well, even though I havepositive EV, if I lose the hand,
I'll go broke.
And there's a pretty goodchance that I will lose the
hand.
So positive EV is not enough.
And Sam SBF didn't realizethat, at least according to this
book.
Well, the book just talkedabout positive EV.
(19:46):
It didn't talk about the factthat you can't just bet
everything whenever you havepositive EV.
So if you have a good game,whether it's in gambling or
whether it's whether it'strading crypto, doesn't matter.
If you bet everything or almosteverything, each time you get
positive EV, you'll soon gobroke and you won't have a
(20:08):
chance to make money.
And that's the trap that SPFfell into.
And he didn't know what wasgoing on because his
computations, though usually onthe back of a napkin or
something, were correct in thathe had positive EV, but he
didn't consider the fact thateven if you have positive EV,
you can go broke.
And so instead of reassessingwhat was going on, trying to
(20:33):
figure it out, he kept bettingmore and more, which is sort of
like the double-up strategy,which is another very bad thing
to do in gambling.
You should never some peoplecall it double-down strategy.
That's not a good thing to do,just like not employing proper
money management is not a goodthing to do.
And Sam Badman Fried startedborrowing other people's money
(20:56):
to bet with, thinking that sincehe has positive EV, he's got to
win.
That didn't happen.
And he went down the slipperyslope of doing things he
shouldn't do to get more funds.
And he wound up in prison,which is where he is today.
Now there's a money managementstrategy developed.
It's called the Kelly system,it was developed by a
(21:18):
mathematician named John Kellyback in the 1950s, that says you
should use a if you're going tostart taking risks when you
invest, which is what everysmall business has to do, you
should be careful, even if youhave positive EV, you should
only bet a fix always bet afixed fraction of your money.
(21:38):
Now, that's not a sometimesthat's easy, sometimes that's
not so easy to figure out how todo that.
But in blackjack, it turns out,or in games that are just
win-loss games, you should betthe fraction, a very simple
fraction of your money.
And that means that if you asyou make more and more money,
you bet more and more, and asyou lose what you you are going
(21:59):
to lose some of the time, youbet less and less.
That's called a fixed fractionbetting system.
It's called the Kelly system.
Ed Thorpe, who popularizedBlackjack, wrote a book about
the Kelly system as well.
But that's the bit that'sanother big mistake that people
make when they're trying to makesmart investments and they see
(22:20):
they have positive EV or somemaybe intuitively figure out,
hey, this is a good goodinvestment opportunity.
They invest too much and theytake a big risk of going broke
before they have a chance torealize the fact that they
really do have a good investmentopportunity.
Tom DuFore (22:39):
How can someone get a copy of your book or connect
with you or learn more aboutwhat you're doing?
Dr. Michael Orkin (22:44):
My book, The Story of Chance Beyond the
Margin of Error, is available onAmazon.
You can also go to my website,which is dr my dr
drmikeorkin.com, and I have alink to get the book there.
And then you, if you go toSubstack and look me up, my uh
Substack is called the NeutralZone because I try to be neutral
(23:08):
about things like politics.
And so those are the best I'min on LinkedIn too.
But if you just go to mywebsite, drmikeorkin.com, or
just go straight to Amazon andlook me up, you'll get my book
there, the paperback.
The story of chance beyond themargin of error.
Tom DuFore (23:24):
Well, Dr.
Mike, this is the time of theshow, and we like to ask every
guest the same four questions.
And the first question we askis have you had a miss or two on
your journey and something youlearned from it?
Dr. Michael Orkin (23:36):
I've had a couple of misses in my journey,
but now I've always wanted to dowhat I'm doing right now, so
that's an important thing.
From the time I was in college,I just sort of drifted from
one, you know, thing that I liketo another, but all in the same
field of probability, chance,statistics.
But there were a couple of I uhone thing that was amiss.
(23:57):
I was a professor for a longtime at a California State
University, and then I wasoffered a nice job by a
consulting company that doesstatistical analysis, a big
company that has offices allover.
And I found myself in thisposition where I wasn't able to
be creative.
I just had to do whatever thecompany wanted.
And I mean, I understand thecompany's position, but it was
(24:19):
definitely a miss.
I was there for more than ayear, but it was it was like
keeping me from doing what Iwanted to do, even though the
general area was the same.
So that was that was a big missbecause it it um made me very
uncomfortable with what I wasdoing for at least a year.
So I would I would chalk thatup to a miss.
(24:40):
I was had a couple consultingjobs that I guess I would call a
miss.
I didn't like the way theyturned out.
But the main one, I think,we're just talking
professionally rather than otherareas.
I would have to say that thatwas the big miss.
Let's talk about a make or awin or a highlight.
I had a consulting, anotheranother consulting job.
(25:02):
Some were highlights, someweren't, but this was a
highlight when I back way back along time ago, before the
internet had become uhavailable, and I was working
with some attorneys in a massmurder case to do some
statistical stuff.
So they asked me to now I'm nota programmer, I'm not a coder
as it's called these days, but Iknow a little bit about it.
(25:24):
And back then, coding wasn't soautomated.
Now you can have AI writeprograms for you.
But the idea was to write asearch engine because this trial
was a retrial of someone whohad been convicted of 25 mass
murders.
The name was Juan Corona, ithappened in Northern California
(25:45):
a long time ago.
But I had the opportunity towrite the search engine for
50,000 pages or so of policereports that would allow the
attorneys and the judge andwhoever wanted to use it, search
through and say, well, whathappened at the Guadalajara
Cafe?
Or when was the macheteinvolved?
So it was great fun, and I gotto learn a programming language,
(26:07):
and I got to write now I now,because of that consulting
experience, I learned I learnedhow to write a search engine
similar to what's on Google now.
Not AI, however.
I went back to my my teachingand other consulting, and so not
much ever came of it.
I've had a couple of other, andthen the internet came along,
(26:28):
and then I was going to bepartners with these attorneys,
and for some reason that justdidn't happen.
We sort of had it falling out.
But anyway, the upshot of itwas that I learned a lot of
stuff and have been able to useit at some of my other work, but
I did not become my my mysoftware did not become a widely
used search engine,unfortunately.
Tom DuFore (26:50):
Dr.
Mike, the name of the show isMultiply Your Success.
And I'd love to know if youused a multiplier to grow
yourself personally,professionally, or any
organizations you've run.
Dr. Michael Orkin (27:00):
Well, there have been a couple, a few things
over the years, but uh talkabout most recently the whole
notion.
So one of the things thateveryone who has a business
needs to know, whether it's aconsulting business or a fast
food business, it doesn'tmatter.
The thing you need to know ishow to brand yourself and how to
get out there.
And so the multiplier I've usedmost recently is just to use
(27:24):
the current methods of gettingyour name out there, one of them
with one of them is LinkedIn,one of them is uh Substack, one
of them is having your ownwebsite.
And so people should use themultiplier, use various
multipliers.
Another multiplier, so-calledmultiplier, and there's a
mathematical definition too, butyour definition is things that
(27:47):
you've used to multiply yourchances of success, is to make
sure that if you are uncertainabout something or are in need
of some kind of support, youshould you should get people who
are experts in that area.
So in the past, I've used, Iknow people in in my world who
(28:09):
are experts in various types ofstatistical analysis.
And whenever I feel like, well,this is gonna take me a lot of
time, and I'm not quite sure howto handle certain things, I'll
call up somebody and I'll getthem on board.
And so the a famous uhstatistician named John Tukey
once said, getting an expert tohelp you is learning how to
(28:32):
think with someone else's brain.
And that's sort of true.
You shouldn't be a you shouldalways be open to finding people
who are experts in their fieldand getting getting them on
board to help you, whether it'sjust for a consulting job or or
as an employee.
Tom DuFore (28:49):
Well, and Dr.
Mike, the final question we askevery guest is what does
success mean to you?
Dr. Michael Orkin (28:55):
Okay, well, to me, success means that I'm
doing something that I reallylike doing, so that I wake up in
the morning knowing that I'mgoing to do something I really
like and that I'm good at, andthat I don't have to get another
job in order to keep doing whatI like doing.
So to me, success means findingwhatever thing you like doing.
(29:19):
And I mean, within reason, Imean there are certain things.
I mean, I used to be involvedin when I was at college in
sports, and I knew that I wouldnever be an Olympic medalist in
judo, which was my sport.
So what I mean is that youshould find something that you
like doing and can do it andmake a living at it.
And so that's sort of whatthat's sort of a a goal that I
(29:44):
have followed, and I I've sortof achieved that goal.
There are I'd like to make somemore mathematical discoveries,
but I'm not really doing much ofthat these days because I'm
doing stuff that's more out inthe the new the new
technologies.
Area.
That's my definition ofsuccess.
Tom DuFore (30:04):
Dr.
Mike, as we bring this to aclose, is there anything you
were hoping to share or getacross that you haven't had a
chance to yet?
Dr. Michael Orkin (30:11):
I think I covered most of the bases on my
in my playbook of the types ofthings that are that are in my
book.
There are some things in mybook that I talk about that are
maybe too long to talk abouthere.
But for instance, I have achapter in my book called Was
Humpty Dumpty Accident Prone?
And because of course he felloff a wall.
(30:33):
Why did he fall off the wall?
Was he on drugs?
Was he drinking?
Or was he just accident prone?
So I talk about this idea ofaccident proneness and how it
really is similar to talkingabout luck versus skill.
In this case, it's not skill,it's being having the
predisposition to haveaccidents.
And how do you make thatdetermination as of
(30:57):
statistically?
And so that that brings there'sone other chapter of my book
about, in fact, a lot of thebook is about luck versus skill.
And that's what a lot of myconsulting involves, and namely
making writing reports forcompanies who need to prove that
their game is a game of skill.
So that's another big question.
(31:18):
So yeah, I talk about variousthings like that.
So you have to read, you haveto get my book in order to, in
order to find out the answers,so to speak.
Or if you look at my Substack,you'll get short versions
without all the math.
Tom DuFore (31:34):
Dr.
Orkin, thank you so much for afantastic interview.
And let's go ahead and jumpinto today's three key
takeaways.
So takeaway number one is whenhe talked about chance, and he
gave that analogy of winning thelottery.
And he said, for the megamillions, he said the chances
are about one in 290 millionthat you would win that.
(31:55):
But what I found interestingwas a statement that he said for
chance, when it's given enoughopportunity, any weird thing
will happen due to chance.
And he said, any weird thingmeans if it's unlikely.
Takeaway number two is when hetalked about the difference
between causation andcorrelation, and he gave that
example of polio and drinkingsoda.
And he said, one researcherconcluded that drinking soda pop
(32:20):
caused or increased the causeof polio.
However, in that specificconclusion and instance, that
was not the case.
There was a strong correlation,but not causation.
And what they later found outwas that it was actually driven
by weather and that as theweather warmed up, more people
drank soda, and it also createdan environment for polio to
(32:42):
spread faster.
Takeaway number three is whenhe talked about the fixed
fraction betting system, and hedescribed that as the Kelly
system or the Kelly bet.
And essentially, I thought thiswas just a great little summary
here, but essentially to me,it's don't put all your eggs in
one basket.
I thought that was aninteresting statistical
(33:04):
discovery that was discoveredhere in the 1950s or 60s, I
believe he said.
And now it's time for today'swin-win.
So today's win-win is is itluck or is it skill?
What it seems like is it'smaybe a little bit of both.
(33:25):
And I liked when Dr.
Orkin said that in order toincrease your chances in life
and finding success, you need toput yourself in positions where
opportunities can occur,therefore creating more chances
for you to be successful.
So I think that's great.
And thinking about okay, well,how can we apply this to what we
(33:46):
do?
Maybe in your own business,giving yourself more
opportunities and more chancesby increasing your marketing or
adding new staff, bringing newopportunities your way to
increase those chances.
But like you said, you can'tjust hide under a rock or hide
in a cave somewhere.
(34:07):
You have to put yourself andmake an attempt to put yourself
in a position for that tohappen.
So I thought that was just agreat conclusion there.
So that's the episode today,folks.
Please make sure you subscribeto the podcast and give us a
review.
And remember, if you or anyoneyou know might be ready to
franchise their business or taketheir franchise company to the
next level, please connect withus at BigSkyFranchise Team.com
(34:28):
and schedule your free, noobligation consultation to talk
a little bit further.
Thanks for tuning in, and welook forward to having you back
next week.
Welcome to the Multiply Your Success podcast,
where each week we helpgrowth-minded entrepreneurs and
franchise leaders take the nextstep in their expansion journey.
I'm your host, Tom Dufour, CEOof Big Sky franchise team.
And as we open today, I'mwondering if you consider
yourself lucky, or do youconsider yourself to have earned
(00:23):
it by working hard and makinggood choices?
Or maybe is it a little bit ofboth?
Well, our guest today is Dr.
Michael Orkin, and he's thestatistics expert, and he shares
with us some very surprisinginsights.
Now, Dr.
Orkin is a distinguishedprofessor, consultant,
researcher, and author with awealth of experience that offers
(00:45):
unique insights into theconcepts of chance and luck.
He holds a bachelor's inmathematics and a PhD in
statistics from the Universityof California in Berkeley.
Throughout his career, Dr.
Orkin has made significantcontributions to the field of
statistics, particularly in thegaming industry, where he
frequently serves as aconsultant.
His extensive research has beenpublished in numerous academic
(01:08):
papers, and he has deliveredinvited talks on these topics,
including notable presentationsto Google Tech Talks.
Dr.
Orkin is a professor emeritusof statistics at California
State University, East Bay, andhe currently serves on the
mathematics faculty at BerkeleyCity College.
His expertise and experiencemake him a leading authority on
statistical principles,underlying games, chance, and
(01:30):
the role of luck in variousaspects of life.
You're going to find this onereally, really fun and
interesting.
So let's go ahead and jump intomy interview with Dr.
Michael Orkin.
Dr. Michael Orkin (01:41):
Okay, my name is Mike Orkin, and my my
official title is I have a PhDand I'm a professor at Berkeley
City College in Berkeley,California.
But right now I do a lot ofconsulting.
I have my own consultingbusiness, and I also do a fair
amount of writing.
I've written a couple of booksrecently, and I'm also on have
(02:06):
an active Substack account rightnow.
Tom DuFore (02:09):
Fantastic.
Well, purpose really of wantingto have you on the show is
really to start talking aboutdata.
And I think the title of yourbook, I think would be a great
place to start.
The title is The Story ofChance Beyond the Margin of
Error.
And I'd love for you to talkabout some of what led you just
to write the book.
Dr. Michael Orkin (02:29):
I've been in this business, in this game for
many years.
My PhD was in statistics andprobability.
And I've been most of my careerinvolved in things involving
chance and games.
I could do a lot of consultingfor game developers who want to
need a professional assessmentof whether the game is a game of
(02:50):
skill.
And so I teach mainly onlinenow.
My students, the class I teachis elementary statistics or
beginning statistics.
And so rather than have thestudents buy an expensive
textbook, 50% of which we neveruse, I decided I'd use my own
material, write my own material,so to speak.
(03:11):
Now I've done this before inthe past, but now things have
changed a lot.
And so I wrote a book.
The second edition is out now.
It's called The Story of ChanceBeyond the Margin of Error.
You can get it on Amazon.
And I wrote it in such a waythat it would be interesting to
the general reader, not just tothe introductory statistics
(03:32):
student.
And that makes it interestingto the introductory statistics
student as well.
It covers a little bit of math,but it's got mainly concepts
about chance and elementarystatistical topics that are
important for anyone who runs asmall business or a medium
business who doesn't have a teamof statisticians working for
(03:55):
them.
Tom DuFore (03:56):
Thank you for that overview.
And I know in speaking ofchance and just thinking about
the effects of chance, just talka little bit about that and
what that means.
Dr. Michael Orkin (04:06):
Okay, so let me start with a little analogy.
The Mega Millions Lottery.
The Mega Millions Lottery, I'llgive you a couple of little
examples like this.
The Mega Millions Lottery isplayed across this country.
The chance, the jackpot, theychanged the rules a little bit a
couple months ago, but it'sstill essentially the same game.
But now the minimum jackpotsize is $50 million.
(04:28):
And the chance of winning it isabout one in $290 million.
And so that is uh extremelyunlikely.
You can play if you if you buy50 tickets a week, you'll win on
the average of once uh everyabout 115,000 years.
So it's very unlikely that youwin the lottery.
(04:50):
But there are winnersperiodically.
Every few weeks, in fact,there's typically a winner.
You can't predict exactly whichdrawings there'll be a winner,
but it happens with surprisingfrequency.
Not every drawing.
When nobody wins, the jackpotprize gets bigger because the
current jackpot rolls over tothe next one, so more tickets
(05:12):
are sold, and which increasesthe chance of someone winning.
So here's the here's the here'sthe interesting thing.
Why why are there winners?
Well, there are winners becauseso many tickets are sold.
And that brings up this veryimportant fact about chance that
some people call the law ofvery large numbers, which is
(05:32):
given enough opportunity, anyweird thing will happen just due
to chance.
Well, winning the lotteryjackpot is certainly a weird
thing because it's so unlikely.
So any weird thing means veryunlikely.
That's why there are winners.
But so how does that serve as ametaphor for other things?
(05:53):
Well, for one thing, it meansthat if you're going to be
successful, first of all, youhave to realize that chance
plays a role.
If you think back on yoursuccess points over your career,
you will realize that chancewas involved.
Oh, I just happened to get thisparticular consulting job that
(06:14):
then led into a full-time jobthat then led into uh running my
business.
So chance plays a big role.
And in order to have that, inorder to, you like to use the
term multiplier, in order tomultiply that chance, you have
to put yourself in a positionwhere there's opportunity.
(06:36):
So get yourself in a position,you're not gonna be able to
force things, but you can getyourself in a position where
there's opportunity for success.
Now, I can't give a magic rulebecause it depends on what
business you're in.
But if you just sort of hideaway and think, oh yeah, I'm
gonna just be be great, you haveto do stuff.
(06:58):
You have to get out there andyou have to allow for
opportunity to take, to takeeffect.
So that's one thing they talkabout.
Tom DuFore (07:06):
Fantastic.
And one of those things that asI'm thinking about the effects
of chance, you mentioned thelottery.
It makes me also think aboutdata interpretations or maybe
misinterpretations.
And so I'd love for you to justtalk about data analysis,
analyzing things in that regard.
Dr. Michael Orkin (07:25):
Okay, so Tom, that's that's an extremely
important thing these daysbecause of the availability of
data and the availability ofsoftware to analyze it.
So now everybody can be a datascientist, doesn't mean that
they're particularly good at it,but data is at our fingertips
thanks to the internet andthanks to recent advances like
computing power, very fastchips, and of course, the
(07:50):
emergence of AI.
But people can still haveaccess to data, and it's it's a
double-edged sword because it'svery good, but on the other
hand, you can make mistakes ininterpreting it.
So I'll give you a coupleclassic examples.
Around the time that the poliovaccine was being developed, a
researcher, this was way back inthe late 1950s, a researcher
(08:15):
discovered, much to hissurprise, that there was a
positive correlation, a verystrong positive correlation
between polio, between polioincidents and Coca-Cola sales.
Now, this was before thevaccine was developed.
The vaccine basically wiped outpolio, but this was while it
(08:36):
was being developed.
People were looking around totry to find the causes of polio.
So this got a lot of pressbecause there are lots of people
who think that, you know, junkfood and soft drinks are not
good for you, which may be true.
However, does it cause polio?
Well, that's what thisresearcher's conclusion was.
But further investigationshowed that drinking Coca-Cola
(09:00):
does not cause polio at all.
It has no effect.
The problem was this was anobservational, but the
researchers' study data wascorrect.
It was observational data.
And observational data issomething in which you can find
correlations, but correlationdoes not mean causation.
(09:21):
So that's like the first thingI say to a class.
Correlation does not meancausation.
In this case, Coca-Cola andCoca-Cola cells and polio have a
strong positive correlation.
But there's a hidden variable.
That hidden variable is theweather.
As the temperature increases,more people drink soft drinks,
(09:45):
and the polio virus gets moreactive.
So those the so that theweather makes those two things
correlated, but they the theyhave nothing to do with each
other.
One does not cause the other.
So people make that mistake allthe time.
People who should know better.
Tom DuFore (10:02):
I know before the show we were talking about this
octopus's story.
Tell us about that.
Okay, well, that's a veryinteresting story.
Dr. Michael Orkin (10:09):
It's a true story.
A few years ago, so this storyis about predicting the results
of European soccer matches.
And there was an octopus namedPaul the Octopus who was kept at
a zoo in Germany.
And Paul the Octopus wastrained to pick the results of
(10:30):
soccer matches.
Now, sports betting is one ofthe most popular gambling
activities in the country rightnow, thanks to FanDuel and
DraftKings and online sportsbetting, which has become
available over the last fewyears.
But Paul only picked soccergames, and his handlers would
put out two bowls of food, onefor each team, whenever there's
a soccer match, especiallyplayoff matches.
(10:52):
And when whichever bowl of foodPaul the Octopus picked, that
would be his prediction for thewinner of the soccer match.
So, okay, great.
You can train an octopi octopiare very smart, and you can
train them to do things likepick some food out of a bowl,
one of one of two bowls.
(11:12):
So, you know, lose a publicitystunt.
But then Paul picked thewinners of 12 out of 14 soccer
matches, which has a very lowprobability of doing it if
you're just guessing.
So he became famous.
And of course, Paul's handlersbecame famous, got a lot of
press.
And so the chance of doing thatis less than one in a hundred.
(11:36):
You could think about it, well,maybe there could be some
cheating, like there's always afavorite and an underdog in any
sports event.
And so maybe Paul's handlerswere putting the better food in
the favorites bowl.
Maybe, maybe other things weregoing on.
But still, he picked 12 out of14.
And putting the better food inthe favorites bowl was kind of,
(11:58):
it wasn't probably wasn't thereason.
So what was the reason?
Well, maybe Paul was skilled.
Uh to pyre very smart animals,as I said.
But there's another reason, andit's the same reason that
people win lottery jackpots.
Namely, it turns out there werelots of other animals
predicting soccer matches.
There was a death cat inRussia, there was a monkey,
(12:21):
there was all kinds of otheranimals.
So the question is, why dopeople win lottery jackpots?
And the answer is because somany tickets are played.
And the correct question isn'twhat's the chance that this guy
won?
It's what's the chance thatsomeone wins, which grows as
more people buy tickets.
Well, the same with Paul.
(12:42):
When you add in all the otheranimals and you ask the question
a little differently and say,what's the chance that some
animal wins, then thatprobability becomes much larger.
So that's the real explanationof why Paul won.
And it's an interestingexplanation, same as the lottery
explanation, because in thiscase, if you're just doing
(13:04):
things at random, then a winneris determined not just by that
winner, not just by Paul and hisexpertise or by the person who
wins a letter jackpot, but byall the losers.
Because the more losers youhave, the more likely it is that
someone or thing will be thewinner.
So that's another example ofthis weird phenomenon about
(13:28):
chance that's given enoughopportunity, that is, in this
case, lots of animals predictingsoccer matches, there will be
any weird thing will happen justdue to chance, or in this case,
there will be a winner.
So that's the story of Paul,which is the same as the story
of the lottery.
Tom DuFore (13:44):
Aaron Powell You started talking a little bit
about some of the commonmisconceptions around these
areas.
Are there others you thinkmight be worth noting or
discussing here?
Dr. Michael Orkin (13:52):
Aaron Powell The landscape has changed over
the last two years because ofthe computing power, because of
the ability to f to do things ona computer.
And so that's something thatpeople have to realize.
And when you're if you'retrying to be successful nowadays
in running your business, thenyou have to open yourself up to
(14:13):
some.
So of course, your skill isobviously a key part of it, but
there's also a chance element.
And nowadays you have to sortof expose yourself to
opportunity and make sure you'reyou're out there and getting
publicity or just getting yourbrand known is different than it
was, say, even 10 years ago,because now there are podcasts,
(14:37):
as we know, and there are theirsub stack.
I have a sub stack, but it'sit's just to promote some of my
writing.
That's one one element.
Nowadays, people need tounderstand that the way of
getting your getting your brandknown is different from the way
it was just a few years ago.
Also, artificial intelligence,AI, is an extremely powerful
(15:01):
thing, but it makes mistakes.
So you can just look up AIhallucinations on Google and
find all kinds of situationswhere that happens.
So you have to take AI with agrain of salt.
Having large amounts of datapresents another issue, and it's
good, it's a good thing, but Imean, having large amounts of
data is a good thing.
But a few years ago, a friendand I wrote some software, fine
(15:25):
patterns in football games.
Professional football, we alsodo professional basketball, NBA,
NFL.
We found these incrediblepatterns.
By patterns, I mean like, oh,the New England Patriots won 10
times out of 11 every when theywere playing on the road, they'd
lost a previous game, and theywere underdogs or something like
(15:47):
that.
I just made that.
So that's called the situation.
We didn't write this program tobecome sports betters.
We wrote it to demonstrate whatsearching data or data mining
can do in terms of finding crazypatterns just due to
randomness.
So you have to be careful whenyou find crazy patterns that
(16:09):
they may just be due to chanceand the fact that data is so
widely available and lots ofdata, and the ability to search
it.
So here's another example.
Most of you out there mayprobably have heard of SBF or
Sam Bankman-Fried, as he's ashis name is, who was the crypto
(16:30):
king a few years ago.
Crypto's back in the news thesedays, because there's lots of
people who want to make cryptoimportant.
But uh Sam Bankman-Fried wasone of the originators, and he
became, he had a couple ofwebsites, and he's a young guy.
He went to MIT, he had a degreein physics and math, and he was
(16:52):
a very smart guy.
And by the age of 30, he was abillionaire because of his
crypto websites and because ofhis activity in buying and
selling different crypto stocks.
So a guy named Zeke Foe wrote abook called Number Go Up.
It was all about SamBankman-Fried, and he
(17:13):
interviewed him many times innumerous interviews, and it
turns out that uh SamBankman-Fried knew about certain
things in the laws of chance.
Namely, there's somethingcalled expected value or EV.
EV means you have a good bet ina certain sense.
For example, if I played a gameof craps in a casino and bet on
(17:36):
seven, I won't I will havenegative EV because the casino
always makes a profit.
So I'm only doing it for fun.
I know I'll lose money in thelong run.
If I bet on seven, there's aone-sixth chance I'll win and a
five-sixth chance I'll lose.
And if I mean the payoff oddsare four to one, so the casino
has a 17% ED.
(17:58):
That is, the casino has apositive expected value.
So what does that say?
It doesn't say anything aboutme getting lucky on the next
bet.
What it says is that if I dothis over and over again, I'll
eventually lose, and the casinowill eventually win.
Casino doesn't need to thinkabout eventually, because if
there are lots of peopleplaying, they win almost every
(18:20):
time.
Okay, now are there any othercasino games that have give the
player a little betteropportunity?
And one of them is blackjack.
Blackjack, for an ordinaryplayer, doesn't is basically a
slightly negative EV, but peoplewho know how to count cards,
and this was first popularizedin the early 1960s, can have
(18:42):
positive EV.
They can have about overallabout a 2% advantage over the
casino in ideal playingconditions, which are hard to
find these days.
But what does that mean?
That means if you keep playing,you'll win in the long run.
And Sam Bankman-Fried knewabout positive EV.
In the stock market, there aremany opportunities with positive
(19:04):
EV, although it's much harderto compute because you don't
really know the probabilities.
However, let's go back toblackjack.
Let's say you have a 2% chanceof winning each hand.
It's actually sort of averagedout, but let's just say that.
So that means if I play andplay and play hours and hours
and hours, I'll win.
And how much I win depends onhow big my bankroll is.
(19:25):
But let's say I've goteverything I have.
Well, even though I havepositive EV, if I lose the hand,
I'll go broke.
And there's a pretty goodchance that I will lose the
hand.
So positive EV is not enough.
And Sam SBF didn't realizethat, at least according to this
book.
Well, the book just talkedabout positive EV.
(19:46):
It didn't talk about the factthat you can't just bet
everything whenever you havepositive EV.
So if you have a good game,whether it's in gambling or
whether it's whether it'strading crypto, doesn't matter.
If you bet everything or almosteverything, each time you get
positive EV, you'll soon gobroke and you won't have a
(20:08):
chance to make money.
And that's the trap that SPFfell into.
And he didn't know what wasgoing on because his
computations, though usually onthe back of a napkin or
something, were correct in thathe had positive EV, but he
didn't consider the fact thateven if you have positive EV,
you can go broke.
And so instead of reassessingwhat was going on, trying to
(20:33):
figure it out, he kept bettingmore and more, which is sort of
like the double-up strategy,which is another very bad thing
to do in gambling.
You should never some peoplecall it double-down strategy.
That's not a good thing to do,just like not employing proper
money management is not a goodthing to do.
And Sam Badman Fried startedborrowing other people's money
(20:56):
to bet with, thinking that sincehe has positive EV, he's got to
win.
That didn't happen.
And he went down the slipperyslope of doing things he
shouldn't do to get more funds.
And he wound up in prison,which is where he is today.
Now there's a money managementstrategy developed.
It's called the Kelly system,it was developed by a
(21:18):
mathematician named John Kellyback in the 1950s, that says you
should use a if you're going tostart taking risks when you
invest, which is what everysmall business has to do, you
should be careful, even if youhave positive EV, you should
only bet a fix always bet afixed fraction of your money.
(21:38):
Now, that's not a sometimesthat's easy, sometimes that's
not so easy to figure out how todo that.
But in blackjack, it turns out,or in games that are just
win-loss games, you should betthe fraction, a very simple
fraction of your money.
And that means that if you asyou make more and more money,
you bet more and more, and asyou lose what you you are going
(21:59):
to lose some of the time, youbet less and less.
That's called a fixed fractionbetting system.
It's called the Kelly system.
Ed Thorpe, who popularizedBlackjack, wrote a book about
the Kelly system as well.
But that's the bit that'sanother big mistake that people
make when they're trying to makesmart investments and they see
(22:20):
they have positive EV or somemaybe intuitively figure out,
hey, this is a good goodinvestment opportunity.
They invest too much and theytake a big risk of going broke
before they have a chance torealize the fact that they
really do have a good investmentopportunity.
Tom DuFore (22:39):
How can someone get a copy of your book or connect
with you or learn more aboutwhat you're doing?
Dr. Michael Orkin (22:44):
My book, The Story of Chance Beyond the
Margin of Error, is available onAmazon.
You can also go to my website,which is dr my dr
drmikeorkin.com, and I have alink to get the book there.
And then you, if you go toSubstack and look me up, my uh
Substack is called the NeutralZone because I try to be neutral
(23:08):
about things like politics.
And so those are the best I'min on LinkedIn too.
But if you just go to mywebsite, drmikeorkin.com, or
just go straight to Amazon andlook me up, you'll get my book
there, the paperback.
The story of chance beyond themargin of error.
Tom DuFore (23:24):
Well, Dr.
Mike, this is the time of theshow, and we like to ask every
guest the same four questions.
And the first question we askis have you had a miss or two on
your journey and something youlearned from it?
Dr. Michael Orkin (23:36):
I've had a couple of misses in my journey,
but now I've always wanted to dowhat I'm doing right now, so
that's an important thing.
From the time I was in college,I just sort of drifted from
one, you know, thing that I liketo another, but all in the same
field of probability, chance,statistics.
But there were a couple of I uhone thing that was amiss.
(23:57):
I was a professor for a longtime at a California State
University, and then I wasoffered a nice job by a
consulting company that doesstatistical analysis, a big
company that has offices allover.
And I found myself in thisposition where I wasn't able to
be creative.
I just had to do whatever thecompany wanted.
And I mean, I understand thecompany's position, but it was
(24:19):
definitely a miss.
I was there for more than ayear, but it was it was like
keeping me from doing what Iwanted to do, even though the
general area was the same.
So that was that was a big missbecause it it um made me very
uncomfortable with what I wasdoing for at least a year.
So I would I would chalk thatup to a miss.
(24:40):
I was had a couple consultingjobs that I guess I would call a
miss.
I didn't like the way theyturned out.
But the main one, I think,we're just talking
professionally rather than otherareas.
I would have to say that thatwas the big miss.
Let's talk about a make or awin or a highlight.
I had a consulting, anotheranother consulting job.
(25:02):
Some were highlights, someweren't, but this was a
highlight when I back way back along time ago, before the
internet had become uhavailable, and I was working
with some attorneys in a massmurder case to do some
statistical stuff.
So they asked me to now I'm nota programmer, I'm not a coder
as it's called these days, but Iknow a little bit about it.
(25:24):
And back then, coding wasn't soautomated.
Now you can have AI writeprograms for you.
But the idea was to write asearch engine because this trial
was a retrial of someone whohad been convicted of 25 mass
murders.
The name was Juan Corona, ithappened in Northern California
(25:45):
a long time ago.
But I had the opportunity towrite the search engine for
50,000 pages or so of policereports that would allow the
attorneys and the judge andwhoever wanted to use it, search
through and say, well, whathappened at the Guadalajara
Cafe?
Or when was the macheteinvolved?
So it was great fun, and I gotto learn a programming language,
(26:07):
and I got to write now I now,because of that consulting
experience, I learned I learnedhow to write a search engine
similar to what's on Google now.
Not AI, however.
I went back to my my teachingand other consulting, and so not
much ever came of it.
I've had a couple of other, andthen the internet came along,
(26:28):
and then I was going to bepartners with these attorneys,
and for some reason that justdidn't happen.
We sort of had it falling out.
But anyway, the upshot of itwas that I learned a lot of
stuff and have been able to useit at some of my other work, but
I did not become my my mysoftware did not become a widely
used search engine,unfortunately.
Tom DuFore (26:50):
Dr.
Mike, the name of the show isMultiply Your Success.
And I'd love to know if youused a multiplier to grow
yourself personally,professionally, or any
organizations you've run.
Dr. Michael Orkin (27:00):
Well, there have been a couple, a few things
over the years, but uh talkabout most recently the whole
notion.
So one of the things thateveryone who has a business
needs to know, whether it's aconsulting business or a fast
food business, it doesn'tmatter.
The thing you need to know ishow to brand yourself and how to
get out there.
And so the multiplier I've usedmost recently is just to use
(27:24):
the current methods of gettingyour name out there, one of them
with one of them is LinkedIn,one of them is uh Substack, one
of them is having your ownwebsite.
And so people should use themultiplier, use various
multipliers.
Another multiplier, so-calledmultiplier, and there's a
mathematical definition too, butyour definition is things that
(27:47):
you've used to multiply yourchances of success, is to make
sure that if you are uncertainabout something or are in need
of some kind of support, youshould you should get people who
are experts in that area.
So in the past, I've used, Iknow people in in my world who
(28:09):
are experts in various types ofstatistical analysis.
And whenever I feel like, well,this is gonna take me a lot of
time, and I'm not quite sure howto handle certain things, I'll
call up somebody and I'll getthem on board.
And so the a famous uhstatistician named John Tukey
once said, getting an expert tohelp you is learning how to
(28:32):
think with someone else's brain.
And that's sort of true.
You shouldn't be a you shouldalways be open to finding people
who are experts in their fieldand getting getting them on
board to help you, whether it'sjust for a consulting job or or
as an employee.
Tom DuFore (28:49):
Well, and Dr.
Mike, the final question we askevery guest is what does
success mean to you?
Dr. Michael Orkin (28:55):
Okay, well, to me, success means that I'm
doing something that I reallylike doing, so that I wake up in
the morning knowing that I'mgoing to do something I really
like and that I'm good at, andthat I don't have to get another
job in order to keep doing whatI like doing.
So to me, success means findingwhatever thing you like doing.
(29:19):
And I mean, within reason, Imean there are certain things.
I mean, I used to be involvedin when I was at college in
sports, and I knew that I wouldnever be an Olympic medalist in
judo, which was my sport.
So what I mean is that youshould find something that you
like doing and can do it andmake a living at it.
And so that's sort of whatthat's sort of a a goal that I
(29:44):
have followed, and I I've sortof achieved that goal.
There are I'd like to make somemore mathematical discoveries,
but I'm not really doing much ofthat these days because I'm
doing stuff that's more out inthe the new the new
technologies.
Area.
That's my definition ofsuccess.
Tom DuFore (30:04):
Dr.
Mike, as we bring this to aclose, is there anything you
were hoping to share or getacross that you haven't had a
chance to yet?
Dr. Michael Orkin (30:11):
I think I covered most of the bases on my
in my playbook of the types ofthings that are that are in my
book.
There are some things in mybook that I talk about that are
maybe too long to talk abouthere.
But for instance, I have achapter in my book called Was
Humpty Dumpty Accident Prone?
And because of course he felloff a wall.
(30:33):
Why did he fall off the wall?
Was he on drugs?
Was he drinking?
Or was he just accident prone?
So I talk about this idea ofaccident proneness and how it
really is similar to talkingabout luck versus skill.
In this case, it's not skill,it's being having the
predisposition to haveaccidents.
And how do you make thatdetermination as of
(30:57):
statistically?
And so that that brings there'sone other chapter of my book
about, in fact, a lot of thebook is about luck versus skill.
And that's what a lot of myconsulting involves, and namely
making writing reports forcompanies who need to prove that
their game is a game of skill.
So that's another big question.
(31:18):
So yeah, I talk about variousthings like that.
So you have to read, you haveto get my book in order to, in
order to find out the answers,so to speak.
Or if you look at my Substack,you'll get short versions
without all the math.
Tom DuFore (31:34):
Dr.
Orkin, thank you so much for afantastic interview.
And let's go ahead and jumpinto today's three key
takeaways.
So takeaway number one is whenhe talked about chance, and he
gave that analogy of winning thelottery.
And he said, for the megamillions, he said the chances
are about one in 290 millionthat you would win that.
(31:55):
But what I found interestingwas a statement that he said for
chance, when it's given enoughopportunity, any weird thing
will happen due to chance.
And he said, any weird thingmeans if it's unlikely.
Takeaway number two is when hetalked about the difference
between causation andcorrelation, and he gave that
example of polio and drinkingsoda.
And he said, one researcherconcluded that drinking soda pop
(32:20):
caused or increased the causeof polio.
However, in that specificconclusion and instance, that
was not the case.
There was a strong correlation,but not causation.
And what they later found outwas that it was actually driven
by weather and that as theweather warmed up, more people
drank soda, and it also createdan environment for polio to
(32:42):
spread faster.
Takeaway number three is whenhe talked about the fixed
fraction betting system, and hedescribed that as the Kelly
system or the Kelly bet.
And essentially, I thought thiswas just a great little summary
here, but essentially to me,it's don't put all your eggs in
one basket.
I thought that was aninteresting statistical
(33:04):
discovery that was discoveredhere in the 1950s or 60s, I
believe he said.
And now it's time for today'swin-win.
So today's win-win is is itluck or is it skill?
What it seems like is it'smaybe a little bit of both.
(33:25):
And I liked when Dr.
Orkin said that in order toincrease your chances in life
and finding success, you need toput yourself in positions where
opportunities can occur,therefore creating more chances
for you to be successful.
So I think that's great.
And thinking about okay, well,how can we apply this to what we
(33:46):
do?
Maybe in your own business,giving yourself more
opportunities and more chancesby increasing your marketing or
adding new staff, bringing newopportunities your way to
increase those chances.
But like you said, you can'tjust hide under a rock or hide
in a cave somewhere.
(34:07):
You have to put yourself andmake an attempt to put yourself
in a position for that tohappen.
So I thought that was just agreat conclusion there.
So that's the episode today,folks.
Please make sure you subscribeto the podcast and give us a
review.
And remember, if you or anyoneyou know might be ready to
franchise their business or taketheir franchise company to the
next level, please connect withus at BigSkyFranchise Team.com
(34:28):
and schedule your free, noobligation consultation to talk
a little bit further.
Thanks for tuning in, and welook forward to having you back
next week.
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