April 16, 2025 • 29 mins
What does the future of senior living look like when real estate trends intersect with the needs of a new generation? Host Lisa McCracken sits down with real estate researcher John Burns, CEO of John Burns Research and Consulting, to uncover the surprising ways baby boomers are rewriting the rules of retirement living. Learn why most retirees choose to age in place, the rise of multi-generational living, and the growing popularity of “build-to-rent” communities as flexible options for older adults seeking proximity to family.
Burns offers a candid look at how labor shortages, material price hikes, and immigration trends are influencing both the availability and affordability of senior housing. He underscores the importance of investing in staff as a key differentiator for senior living communities.
Looking ahead, McCracken and Burns discuss how advances in technology — particularly artificial intelligence and robotics — could transform aging in place and healthcare delivery, potentially extending both lifespan and healthspan for seniors.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Lisa McCracken (00:02):
Hi everyone.
Thanks for tuning into thisedition of the NIC Chats
podcast. I am Lisa McCrackenand I am joined today by John
Burns of John Burs Real EstateConsulting. John , welcome.
Thanks for joining us.
John Burns (00:15):
My pleasure. And actually we changed our name to
John Burns Research andConsulting now, so
Lisa McCracken (00:20):
That's right.
Well, okay. So that, that leads,
John Burns (00:22):
I've gotta get used to it too. No, that's okay. You
can leave this.
Lisa McCracken (00:25):
No , that leads to my first question because
you, yes. You were founded,what, almost 25 years ago,
right? For about the realestate?
John Burns (00:31):
Yeah, that makes me feel really old. But yes,
you're right.
Lisa McCracken (00:34):
This is actually my 25 year in the
senior living industry. It'shard to look back on it. So ,
for those of our listeners whodo not know who you are and
know about your firm, I'd loveyou give, so your elevator
speech and a little bit ofhistory and how you came about.
John Burns (00:52):
Okay. I started my career as a CPA, I ended up in
KPMG's consulting practice, andmy boss picked real estate when
they reorganized by industry. Iended up in real estate and I
did that for eight of the 10years I was there. And then I
was traveling too much, whichis funny 'cause I've been
traveling a lot again lately.
(01:12):
And we started, we were havingkids, so I said I gotta slow it
down. So I went to a regionalfirm for a couple years. But
then I started the companybecause I really saw commercial
real estate companies, and I'llput the senior housing into
that bucket too . Just verysophisticated. Paying attention
to the economy. Development wasa lot of demand supply analysis
(01:33):
and the residential industrywas a bunch of people doing
deals on the back of a napkinthat would make a fortune and
then give it all back during adownturn. And I just said that
is just not a good way to runyour business. So I started a
business to be the research andconsulting for the residential
industry, but I had a strongcommercial real estate
background at KPMG before I didthat.
Lisa McCracken (01:55):
Very interesting. And I truly didn't
know your background, so Iappreciate that. I do know that
you t ravel because you a re aregular poster on LinkedIn when
you're running. And I'm alwaysimpressed that people can talk
when th ey're r unning. So, you're out and about.
John Burns (02:09):
If you saw how slow I was going, you would
understand.
Lisa McCracken (02:12):
Hey , you've got my respect. Anyway, so you
and I were talking a little bitabout, okay, so, what's the
connection between maybe seniorliving, the senior housing
space, and the real estate andto connect the dots for our
listeners, we obviously are often dependent. It's a private
p ay space, with the exceptionof you on the nursing side of
(02:33):
things, and if Medicaid comesinto play, but people often
sell their home to, to pay for,you know, housing again,
whether you're moving intoA-C-C-R-C or i nto, you know,
active adult, independentliving, whatever. So we do pay
attention to the he alth marketplace and so forth. So you
co uld p robably talk for hoursabout this, but as you step
(02:53):
back and you look at, at thehousing marketplace an d t he
real estate sector right now,are there any particular
trends? And we can talk aboutthe baby boomers, there's
obviously lo ts i n them thatyou feel like, you know, we
should be paying attention toor the th ings that jump out to
you th at may impact thatdemographic in ou r space a
(03:14):
little bit.
John Burns (03:15):
Well I think all your listeners know the obvious
stuff. I should have said in mybackground, I joined the Senior
housing council of the BuildingIndustry Association on their
board like 15 years ago. It'snow called Sage. 'cause I saw
this demographic wave coming.
We all did. And , well maybewe'll talk more about that
later. That's the one. Well, Imean , I'll just mention it
(03:39):
now. I think that's the onething people need to focus on
is like everybody's seeing thiswave coming and so you can have
too much of a good thing. So wejust gotta be careful of that.
The wealth creations duringCovid was absolutely insane. We
wrote a book on housingdemographics eight years ago,
nine years ago now. And webroke the population down into
(04:03):
decades born. So you couldcompare 10 year periods to 10
year periods and all this babyborn , you know, just 19 year
periods are just too long. Andthe wealth creation that has
occurred, and I've got the math, I mean , it's about a 20%
increase in wealth in the lastfive years. So people born in
(04:27):
the 1940s are sitting on 23trillion in wealth, 1950s,
sitting on 39 trillion inwealth. My generation born in
the sixties, 43 trillion inwealth. It's about 20% higher
than it was five years ago,which is just now they can
afford to retire moreaffluently a lot of them than
(04:47):
they thought otherwise.
Lisa McCracken (04:48):
It is amazing.
We look at that, we are gonnatalk about affordability in a
little bit 'cause there'sdefinitely disconnect there.
But as it relates to a privatepays housing sector there's the
funds that are available thereamong the boomers that, you
know, if you've got what theywant, the value proposition has
(05:08):
to be there, but t hey're thefunds t hat support that. I am
curious to know, t he boomers,there's been a lot more written
about them i n some of the MainS treet Media, wall Street
Journal, I mean, way morearticles than we've ever seen
before. And it's justinteresting to what to read
some of those a nd w atch thatunfold. As it relates to the
housing stock, the Wall StreetJournal did a very interesting
(05:30):
article and it was called, this was like last spring, about
a year ago. Boomers bought upthe big homes. Now they're not
budging. It's this inventory ofthe large home housing market
that the boomers have. Have youspent any time looking at that
or, any reactions to that?
That's that's an interestingthing that s ays, unfolded
there.
John Burns (05:49):
We've studied generations here. PE people
don't move in retirement. Nowwe make a big deal about those
who do, but it is a hugeminority. And because people
have their social circles, theyhave their friends, they have
their church , moving is a painin the butt. And most people
(06:09):
don't do it, which is actuallyvery painful for real estate
agents right now. And they'resitting in these big homes.
You're right that we reallyshould be in the middle of a
remodeling boom because of allthis wealth and these people
that are in these older homesthat need a remodel. But I've
also learned over the yearsthat people over the ages 65
(06:31):
are the most patient people inthe world. And we can do the
remodel this year or next yearor the year after that. There's
just not a lot of urgency. Andanytime there's some
uncertainty or even acorrection in the stock market,
like, oh, let's just wait sixmonths or the $50,000 remodel
is now beginning an $80,000quote, which is what is
happening, people are just notdoing it. And I have a lot of
(06:55):
building products clients now.
They're very frustrated bythat.
Lisa McCracken (07:00):
Interesting. Do you have any concerns, and this
maybe gets to the affordabilitypiece 'cause I think, correct
me if I'm wrong here, theaverage age of , I don't know ,
it's the first time home buyer,second time home buyer, you
know, continues to go up. So,the reality is there a limited
market for some of these bighomes that the boomers h ave?
Because it's just s ort o f anaffordability standpoint of
(07:20):
the, the younger first t ime,maybe even second t ime
homeowners.
John Burns (07:24):
We haven't seen like larger homes sitting on
the market longer than otherhomes, other than $2 million
homes sit on the market longerthan 500,000 homes . So that's
always been the case. One ofthe things, all this might
change with what's going onwith immigration right now
though, but one of the changesover the last several decades
(07:44):
is we've seen a surge inimmigrants, immigration from
other countries where peoplelive multi-generationally. So
that sort of demand is fillingthe niche if you will, of
people that want bigger homes.
Lisa McCracken (08:00):
So I don't know if you know Dr. Joe Kauflin ,
MITH Lab, he actually justwrote a piece on this
multi-generational houseliving. And I think about that
we are not incredibly diverseas a sector in terms of who
lives in the senior living,particularly again on the
private pay side of things. Butthose demographics are
changing. So I think about someof the future viability and how
(08:21):
we as the marketplace need toadapt with some of that. I'm
surprised to hear you say,surprised and not surprised ,
but I wanna talk a little bitmore about the whole migration
and the moving thing that, y ousaid because, n ow I'm in the
northeast, I'm in New Jersey next b ase i n N apa, and
there's been a lot of the, o h,m ove south to the Florida. And
then there's been some writtenabout the, the halfbacks. W
(08:43):
ell, we get to Florida, maybethat's a little too far a nd we
come and we settle o n theCarolinas. But you're saying
that's very few. And the babychasers thing isn't, maybe it's
a very small portion.
John Burns (08:56):
I think all of that is true, but it's all relative
to, you know, if, if peopleare, those who do move are most
likely to be in a place wherethe weather is miserable, or
I'll just say cold, where theproperty taxes are high 'cause
people hate higher propertytaxes. And there has been a
trend, they call, you call thebaby chasers, I call 'em
(09:19):
helicopter parents. So theseare helicopter parents that are
now grandparents and arehelicoptering their kids and
grandkids. So if the kids arein Florida, we're gonna move to
Florida. But you know where thekids are now, they've got a job
in Dallas. So you're seeingpeople move not to go play golf
(09:39):
as much, but more of a shift oftheir continuation to stay near
their kids . I read this greatstudy once and I've been
looking all over for it . Ican't find it, where Dell Webb
reportedly started Dell Webbbecause when people hit
retirement in the 1960s, theybasically wanna get away from
their families. It was like, Ispent my entire life raising
(10:03):
these people. Now I'm gonna goplay golf and enjoy it. Whereas
the retirees now are like, Iworked hard and I probably
didn't spend enough time withmy kids growing up and I wanna
spend more time with their kidsand, I've been helicoptering
them and I wanna keephelicoptering 'em . That's my
biggest amenity is my family.
Lisa McCracken (10:22):
Interesting.
Well, and then, we don't needto go down this rabbit trail
either, but just acknowledgingthat a lot of the boomers, I
mean, compared to previousgenerations of retirees or ,
65, 75 plus actually morelikely to have zero children.
So even there's just someinteresting things in play
there. So I wanna talk about ,I wanna shift a little bit to
(10:44):
the renter households. Soreally, the fastest growing
segment of renters are the 55to 74 year olds. And then I
don't believe is necessarilyjust about affordability. I
think there's an element ofthat. But what are you all
(11:04):
tracking on the renting trendsside of things?
John Burns (11:07):
What we're seeing that is probably of most
interest to your audience, andI'm sure they've heard about
this built to rent trend thathas taken off the last five or
six years, is a lot of rentersin brand new communities being
built in Dallas and elsewhereare moving from their owned
home in New Jersey or elsewhereto where their kids live and
(11:29):
they're saying, Hey, we'regonna test drive this. We're
gonna rent for a year or two,maybe forever, who knows. Or
maybe the kids are in Dallasnow, but they'll be, they may
move in three or four years.
And so we're gonna rent. Sowe're seeing, again, it's the
baby chaser or a helicopterparent renting. And that makes
(11:51):
a lot of sense. And the builtto rent industry has been doing
great, but it's been strugglinglately because these people are
moving less right now. And Ithink that's attributable to
some of the uncertainty goingon in the world. People are
just kind of locking down andstaying put. We're seeing that
in for rent for sale. We'reseeing that everywhere right
(12:12):
now.
Lisa McCracken (12:13):
Yeah, I know what you just described. Going
in a new market , new area,maybe there's family there and
renting for a period of time,there's a segment of the active
adult rental market that doesthat, they're there for a
couple years and then they moveout, either to another place or
maybe they decide they likethat area. The kids and
grandkids, they seem to stayingthere and they move out and
(12:35):
actually buy a home.
John Burns (12:36):
Our clients that have done master plan
communities are intentionallyputting those built to rent
neighborhoods in their masterplans. At first, they wanted
nothing to do with 'em 'causethey said , oh , these are
renters that's gonna bring downour neighborhood. Then they
realize they're the exactpeople we're talking about. And
they said, well heck, they'rerenting and then they're gonna
buy a home in our community intwo years. So we're seeding our
(12:57):
future sales by providingrental homes. That's been a big
trend that did not exist sevenor eight years ago.
Lisa McCracken (13:04):
Those master plan communities, I know all of
you keep track of , have listsand rankings of those. Do you
have any estimates of how manyof those have some type of an
age segregated, age qualifiedpart to 'em? Is it increasingly
on the radar? Is it a blip, afew here and there?
John Burns (13:23):
I don't know the percentages. I don't think it
has changed much. I thinkthat's been a pretty steady
Yeti component, if you will.
I'm probably seeing fewer, like100% age restricted communities
because the trend is a littlebit more now. Like I wanna live
down the street from the kids.
(13:45):
So you may see an 55 plusneighborhood in a master plan
community, but less so theentire community.
Lisa McCracken (13:54):
I mean, unless you think of the magic salt or
the secret sauces of thevillages, right. Just what a
fascinating thing they've gotgoing on there. Some of the
fastest growing zip codes inthe country, right?
John Burns (14:05):
Yep . Pick up the fastest growing a lot of things
there. We won't get into that.
Lisa McCracken (14:10):
That's right .
That's for another podcast. Imentioned active adult . Do you
guys track that at all? And weknow, I say active adult , so
there's the active adult forsale and there's the active
adult rental. You know, we'reseeing growing interest from
both the multi-family side ofthings as well as the seniors
housing side of things lookingat this for a variety of
(14:32):
different reasons. So anythoughts on the this future
housing option? What you'reseeing?
John Burns (14:37):
I don't think most people wanna come out of a
house into a 1100, 1200 squarefoot apartment 'cause they have
too much stuff and that's whenthis built to rent has been
playing to those folks. 'causethey've got storage and about
half of them have a garage andit feels more like a home. High
(14:59):
rises in Miami might be anexception to that.
Lisa McCracken (15:02):
I had someone recently say to me, and I told
them I was gonna steal this.
And it's to what you just said,that active adult is the
gateway drug for senior housingas in that downsizing piece
because you growing from asingle family home, like you
said, to maybe even if it's aone bedroom , certainly a
(15:23):
studio, but, there's not a hugedemand for them right now i n
seniors housing. There'shundreds of thousands of ' em
out there. But downsizing thatdramatically to maybe a senior
living option, independentliving and so forth, that
that's a big leap where activea dult seems to be a little
less psychologically impactful.
John Burns (15:43):
I mean active adult is like, it's not the end of
your life. I mean, it is thenext phase of fun. I mean, look
at what's happened t o theMargaritaville communities,
which is the ultimate p art.
It's all the Jimmy Buffett fanshere. I'm just gonna have fun
for the next 20 years. That'sbeen the draw and the builders
have done a great job leaninginto that a nd promoting that.
Lisa McCracken (16:05):
I wanna shift it a little bit to a topic. I'm
curious if you have anyinsights on, so it relates to
the affordability, but in ourindustry there are many staff,
often we build senior livingcommunities and not always but
many in very high end affluentneighborhoods. You might have a
view of the water of the oceanon the coast, whatever it might
(16:27):
be. And increasingly, a lot ofthese particularly high-end
communities and these locales,the staff can't necessarily
afford to live in closeproximity to, to the the senior
living community. Have youfollowed any of the workforce
housing stuff? I think t hatthe workforce piece is
something I know our sectoramong many others are gonna be
struggling with.
John Burns (16:47):
And I saw it firsthand too, and my dad was
in an assisted living facilityin Marin County, and my mom was
in another one and just thesepeople were commuting an hour
and a half to work. My shortanswer to that is nobody likes,
which is you just need to paythese people better. I mean, if
you're paying, well, you'regonna get the staff. Nobody
wants to hear that. But if youpick a Marin County, which is
(17:12):
north of San Francisco, thoseretirees are crazy affluent and
it is already expensive to livein there. And I just think you
need to charge a little moreand you'll get the labor that
way.
Lisa McCracken (17:23):
Yeah, there's a lot of conversations around,
how far can you go, with someof the rents and the monthly
fees and what will the marketand the resident tolerate and
'cause at the end of the day,you need to make a margin
obviously to stay in business,but also, how much can you pass
through? And the wages are abig one.
John Burns (17:43):
Nobody talks about this, but I think the biggest
amenity in those facilities isthe quality of the staff and on
how they treat the people andso. I mean, I run my own
business too. We got about 160employees now. You gotta treat
your people really well if youwanna hold onto them. And you
know what, if you do that andyou pay them more, you'll have
(18:05):
less turnover and it'll drop,that'll drop to your bottom
line too. So I'm a big believerin that.
Lisa McCracken (18:11):
Yeah, absolutely. Well , we'll hop on
another time and talk about theworkforce stuff . No doubt.
They are not number twocustomer. Many say, they're
sort of your number onecustomer and then the residents
are obviously a close second orthey're equal. That mindset I
think is important. Right nowthere is limited new
(18:34):
development happening in thesenior living space. And a lot
of that is because of theconstruction costs , capital,
there's some stuff going onthere too. What do you see on
that front? I mean, is it justalways gonna get more and more
expensive? And I know theconstruction side of things,
there's a combination of laboron their end, there's always
some supply chain issues.
(18:55):
Although I think those havegotten better since the height
of the pandemic. Are we lookingat just sort of a long journey
here on the construction callside of things? Where do you
see that?
John Burns (19:06):
We have some of the largest building material
companies in America areclients of ours too. And and
the largest retailers as well.
I mean Home Depot, Lowe's,etcetera. So we're paying a lot
of attention to this. Materialcosts are up 40% during Covid ,
and I can't name any of myclients that is planning on
dropping price this year. And Imentioned that they're
(19:31):
struggling particularly 'causethe remodeling construction is
down, the remodeling is down.
You think there'd be a pricewar and you know, there
probably is, a little bit , butthey're raising prices and if
there's a change, it's to maybea lower quality material. I
mean that , that's how peopleare saving money on costs . And
(19:53):
I don't see any relief on thelabor side of construction
either . So that , and they'regetting cost increases. The raw
materials are going up. Andthis was before we started
layering tariffs in. Nowtariffs are just gonna make it
even worse.
Lisa McCracken (20:08):
I had heard a statistic that , and this
seemed high to me, but I'm notan expert in it, but on the
labor side of things, thatabout 50% of the construction
workforce in this country isimmigrant labor. So when you
look at some of the immigrationstuff too, it seems like just a
lot of things that are someheadwinds on the construction
(20:30):
side of things.
John Burns (20:31):
I believe that there's certain, like drywall
is way higher than that. Butwhere I thought you were gonna
go with that is a hugepercentage of construction
labor is over the age of 50.
You've got an immigrant lack ofimmigration problem now and a
retirement problem. And I thinkwhat is happening is people in
(20:51):
the trades now are starting tomake good money. And that's
becoming a pretty pro . I mean,you can now raise a family if
you're a construction worker.
Lisa McCracken (21:00):
Yeah, it'll definitely be interesting to
watch that. I know we have seenin our space, the construction
timelines lengthen for a lot ofthe reasons that we talked
about, but there's a lot ofconcerns too, even just about
the increased red tape. I don'tknow how much of that is just
local. It's like this last milejust getting approvals and so
forth and time is money onthose. So I feel like at a
(21:23):
certain point we're gonna hit atipping point. And again, does
this happen locally , and soforth where groups are like,
all right , we've gotta dosomething here to at least try
to not have as many barriers tosome development activity in,
in our neighborhoods andmarkets.
John Burns (21:37):
Yeah, I mean that is all local. You're right. And
all of my clients see the samething. The home builders when
they go to outlying areas findless resistance places that are
not as mature and there island. And so you see that's how
you see metro areas expand tothe outlying areas. And the
last couple years we've done, Ithink last year we, we did
(22:00):
feasibility studies in 140metro areas , 30 of which we
had never done a study in fouror five years ago. So we're
going to all these tiny littlemarkets. And you talk about, I
mean , they don't get theheadlines because there's not
thousands of people moving, butthere's hundreds of people
moving to little small marketsin the southeast in particular
(22:24):
because it is affordable.
Lisa McCracken (22:26):
So talking about some market specifics, I
know in my brain, there aresome hotter markets in the
senior living, maybe even someof the development side of
things and so forth, but, andwhere certain markets are more
saturated than others. Arethere any on the , just housing
market in general. Are thereany hot housing markets right
now versus other ones that arenot as hot? I would say
(22:49):
probably more so in terms ofthe ability to sell your home.
How long it takes to sell ahome?
John Burns (22:55):
This is probably a good example of the, you can
have too much of a good thingcomment. So everybody,
including I'm sure all yourlisteners wants to go to the
SMILE states. 'cause that'swhere the strong growth is. And
so what we have seen is anoversupply in the strong growth
markets. So the softest marketsin the country are Texas,
(23:17):
Nashville, Salt Lake, Denver, Ihaven't quite gotten to the
bottom of what's going on innorthern Florida, but
Jacksonville and Orlando too.
All the markets everybody wasrushing into, and it's because
of this , the demand there hasslowed, but there's, it's still
good. But they're oversuppliedand they were oversupplied with
(23:40):
some investors too, not justreal people moving in. And that
caused a problem. And then onthe converse, we're seeing
things are fine in the Midwest,things are fine in the
Northeast. Nobody was, thosearen't the smile states. The
biggest surprise to me becauseI live here is Southern
California is still one of thestrongest markets in the
country. I mean, the migrationhere is terrible. The
(24:02):
affordability is terrible.
They, I employ people here.
They make it really hard to bean employer in California. And
yeah , yet we're seeing strongdemand from affluent people and
actually people from Asia whowanna get out where they
currently live.
Lisa McCracken (24:21):
Interesting.
And that's why we often reporton some national statistics,
and of course we go down intomarkets, but within markets it
can vary. So you just gottaknow your backyard and what's
happening and the dynamics thatare unfolding. So you do know a
bit about the senior housingsector, obviously , you gave a
bit of that in your background.
So given the expertise that youhave on the real estate trends
(24:43):
side of things, knowing ouraudience, is there anything
that you would say to seniorhousing operators, owners,
developers, as we think aboutthe next day , decade of our
evolution? The one good thingabout being a little quiet on
the development side of thingsright now, think it's forcing
us to sort of think about pausea little bit and say, what are
(25:04):
some lessons learned and how dowe need to think maybe a little
differently about the nextdecade and evolution of our
space. But from yourperspective, anything you would
share, advice or perspective?
John Burns (25:15):
I'm gonna give some technology things that maybe
people aren't thinking about.
So, and I've been doing a lotof research on this. So , I
think artificial intelligencein particular, and some of this
quantum computing is reallygoing to accelerate the health
(25:37):
industry where you can get morecustomized medicine and
immunotherapy and all sorts ofthings that can cause you to
live a lot longer. So we'realready talking demographically
about 60% of growth in peopleover the age of 85, 10 years
from now. It could be a lotmore than that. So that's a
(25:59):
positive. On a cautionary sideof that, I think there's some
things going on in roboticsand, other things that can
allow those people to stay intheir house longer. I mean ,
there's already robots thatwill dispense the pills on
time, and call 911 ifsomebody's breathing is a
(26:20):
little off, or the toilet waterisn't right. So pay attention
to both.
Lisa McCracken (26:26):
The home's, the biggest competition, staying in
your home. It's always thebiggest competition to the
senior living sector. And so Ithink, I mean, it's easier and
easier to age in your home.
Now, the socialization piece,you don't get there. And the
pandemic was a big reminder ofI think the importance of that.
But I agree. I think it's gonnabe easier and easier. And to
(26:47):
your point about the livinglonger, there's a lot of time
spent among folks in our sectortoo, just really trying to look
at not just lifespan, buthealth span and the wealth
spans not just living longer,but living longer, healthier.
Some of these AI conversationsgo a little over my head, but
there's a lot of people thatare very, very bullish on what
(27:09):
you talked about and thisliving longer and it's this
personalized health andpredictive stuff that , is
absolutely a part of what wedo. I mean, it's not just
housing that's provided in ourspaces and you know, there's
multiple elements of of care,social determinants of health,
all that stuff. So I definitelythink, a decade, two decades
(27:33):
from things are gonna look verydifferent. I had a CEO recently
say to me, he's like, you know,I remember when we would do the
big, everybody in the communitywould do a big birthday bash
when somebody turned a hundred.
He's like, my gosh, we're doingthem all the time now like
people living longer. It's justfascinating to see even some of
these, multiple generationsunder the same roof. So yeah.
John Burns (27:55):
You're bringing up a good point though. There's
probably some side businessesfrom there. I mean , people are
gonna be more focused onexercising longer and there's a
lot of different type ofamenities you can put in there.
And I'm sure you've read, likeeverybody's read that outlive
book by Peter Atia , what youcall it , medicine 3.0 where
we, we get it, we get to yourbefore the disease happens
(28:16):
rather than afterwards, whichthat could be game changing.
Lisa McCracken (28:19):
Yeah, absolutely. And we've gotta be
thinking like that as a sectorwithout a doubt. So, I
appreciate your time today. Anyfinal thoughts? Anything we
didn't touch on where you'dlike to say? Lisa? I , I'd like
to comment on this before wewrap up.
John Burns (28:32):
The only thingwe skirted over a little early on
was the supply. So that's thehardest thing to monitor. We
started some capital surveysand maybe we should do one for
senior housing too, because Ithink that's the best way to
figure it out. If the money isflowing in, you're gonna see a
(28:53):
lot of supply. So I guess givemyself a new idea for a new
survey to pay attention.
Lisa McCracken (28:59):
Well, and we know that there are, the senior
living is more, is seniorshousing is definitely more on
the radar in circles that ithasn't been ever before, which
we think is a good thing. Andcapital included in that. And
it's gonna be interesting tosee how that unfolds. And
that's exciting. I think itrequires education. So people
(29:19):
are making smart investments'cause the operational
complexity of senior living isvery different than a
multi-family housing. But Ithink that that's exciting and
it presents opportunity. Well,thank you again, John Burns for
being our guest on the NICChats Podcast. For those of you
who wanna check this out andthen other podcasts, you can
(29:40):
visit nic.org, and appreciateyou listening today. Thank you
very much.
Hi everyone.
Thanks for tuning into thisedition of the NIC Chats
podcast. I am Lisa McCrackenand I am joined today by John
Burns of John Burs Real EstateConsulting. John , welcome.
Thanks for joining us.
John Burns (00:15):
My pleasure. And actually we changed our name to
John Burns Research andConsulting now, so
Lisa McCracken (00:20):
That's right.
Well, okay. So that, that leads,
John Burns (00:22):
I've gotta get used to it too. No, that's okay. You
can leave this.
Lisa McCracken (00:25):
No , that leads to my first question because
you, yes. You were founded,what, almost 25 years ago,
right? For about the realestate?
John Burns (00:31):
Yeah, that makes me feel really old. But yes,
you're right.
Lisa McCracken (00:34):
This is actually my 25 year in the
senior living industry. It'shard to look back on it. So ,
for those of our listeners whodo not know who you are and
know about your firm, I'd loveyou give, so your elevator
speech and a little bit ofhistory and how you came about.
John Burns (00:52):
Okay. I started my career as a CPA, I ended up in
KPMG's consulting practice, andmy boss picked real estate when
they reorganized by industry. Iended up in real estate and I
did that for eight of the 10years I was there. And then I
was traveling too much, whichis funny 'cause I've been
traveling a lot again lately.
(01:12):
And we started, we were havingkids, so I said I gotta slow it
down. So I went to a regionalfirm for a couple years. But
then I started the companybecause I really saw commercial
real estate companies, and I'llput the senior housing into
that bucket too . Just verysophisticated. Paying attention
to the economy. Development wasa lot of demand supply analysis
(01:33):
and the residential industrywas a bunch of people doing
deals on the back of a napkinthat would make a fortune and
then give it all back during adownturn. And I just said that
is just not a good way to runyour business. So I started a
business to be the research andconsulting for the residential
industry, but I had a strongcommercial real estate
background at KPMG before I didthat.
Lisa McCracken (01:55):
Very interesting. And I truly didn't
know your background, so Iappreciate that. I do know that
you t ravel because you a re aregular poster on LinkedIn when
you're running. And I'm alwaysimpressed that people can talk
when th ey're r unning. So, you're out and about.
John Burns (02:09):
If you saw how slow I was going, you would
understand.
Lisa McCracken (02:12):
Hey , you've got my respect. Anyway, so you
and I were talking a little bitabout, okay, so, what's the
connection between maybe seniorliving, the senior housing
space, and the real estate andto connect the dots for our
listeners, we obviously are often dependent. It's a private
p ay space, with the exceptionof you on the nursing side of
(02:33):
things, and if Medicaid comesinto play, but people often
sell their home to, to pay for,you know, housing again,
whether you're moving intoA-C-C-R-C or i nto, you know,
active adult, independentliving, whatever. So we do pay
attention to the he alth marketplace and so forth. So you
co uld p robably talk for hoursabout this, but as you step
(02:53):
back and you look at, at thehousing marketplace an d t he
real estate sector right now,are there any particular
trends? And we can talk aboutthe baby boomers, there's
obviously lo ts i n them thatyou feel like, you know, we
should be paying attention toor the th ings that jump out to
you th at may impact thatdemographic in ou r space a
(03:14):
little bit.
John Burns (03:15):
Well I think all your listeners know the obvious
stuff. I should have said in mybackground, I joined the Senior
housing council of the BuildingIndustry Association on their
board like 15 years ago. It'snow called Sage. 'cause I saw
this demographic wave coming.
We all did. And , well maybewe'll talk more about that
later. That's the one. Well, Imean , I'll just mention it
(03:39):
now. I think that's the onething people need to focus on
is like everybody's seeing thiswave coming and so you can have
too much of a good thing. So wejust gotta be careful of that.
The wealth creations duringCovid was absolutely insane. We
wrote a book on housingdemographics eight years ago,
nine years ago now. And webroke the population down into
(04:03):
decades born. So you couldcompare 10 year periods to 10
year periods and all this babyborn , you know, just 19 year
periods are just too long. Andthe wealth creation that has
occurred, and I've got the math, I mean , it's about a 20%
increase in wealth in the lastfive years. So people born in
(04:27):
the 1940s are sitting on 23trillion in wealth, 1950s,
sitting on 39 trillion inwealth. My generation born in
the sixties, 43 trillion inwealth. It's about 20% higher
than it was five years ago,which is just now they can
afford to retire moreaffluently a lot of them than
(04:47):
they thought otherwise.
Lisa McCracken (04:48):
It is amazing.
We look at that, we are gonnatalk about affordability in a
little bit 'cause there'sdefinitely disconnect there.
But as it relates to a privatepays housing sector there's the
funds that are available thereamong the boomers that, you
know, if you've got what theywant, the value proposition has
(05:08):
to be there, but t hey're thefunds t hat support that. I am
curious to know, t he boomers,there's been a lot more written
about them i n some of the MainS treet Media, wall Street
Journal, I mean, way morearticles than we've ever seen
before. And it's justinteresting to what to read
some of those a nd w atch thatunfold. As it relates to the
housing stock, the Wall StreetJournal did a very interesting
(05:30):
article and it was called, this was like last spring, about
a year ago. Boomers bought upthe big homes. Now they're not
budging. It's this inventory ofthe large home housing market
that the boomers have. Have youspent any time looking at that
or, any reactions to that?
That's that's an interestingthing that s ays, unfolded
there.
John Burns (05:49):
We've studied generations here. PE people
don't move in retirement. Nowwe make a big deal about those
who do, but it is a hugeminority. And because people
have their social circles, theyhave their friends, they have
their church , moving is a painin the butt. And most people
(06:09):
don't do it, which is actuallyvery painful for real estate
agents right now. And they'resitting in these big homes.
You're right that we reallyshould be in the middle of a
remodeling boom because of allthis wealth and these people
that are in these older homesthat need a remodel. But I've
also learned over the yearsthat people over the ages 65
(06:31):
are the most patient people inthe world. And we can do the
remodel this year or next yearor the year after that. There's
just not a lot of urgency. Andanytime there's some
uncertainty or even acorrection in the stock market,
like, oh, let's just wait sixmonths or the $50,000 remodel
is now beginning an $80,000quote, which is what is
happening, people are just notdoing it. And I have a lot of
(06:55):
building products clients now.
They're very frustrated bythat.
Lisa McCracken (07:00):
Interesting. Do you have any concerns, and this
maybe gets to the affordabilitypiece 'cause I think, correct
me if I'm wrong here, theaverage age of , I don't know ,
it's the first time home buyer,second time home buyer, you
know, continues to go up. So,the reality is there a limited
market for some of these bighomes that the boomers h ave?
Because it's just s ort o f anaffordability standpoint of
(07:20):
the, the younger first t ime,maybe even second t ime
homeowners.
John Burns (07:24):
We haven't seen like larger homes sitting on
the market longer than otherhomes, other than $2 million
homes sit on the market longerthan 500,000 homes . So that's
always been the case. One ofthe things, all this might
change with what's going onwith immigration right now
though, but one of the changesover the last several decades
(07:44):
is we've seen a surge inimmigrants, immigration from
other countries where peoplelive multi-generationally. So
that sort of demand is fillingthe niche if you will, of
people that want bigger homes.
Lisa McCracken (08:00):
So I don't know if you know Dr. Joe Kauflin ,
MITH Lab, he actually justwrote a piece on this
multi-generational houseliving. And I think about that
we are not incredibly diverseas a sector in terms of who
lives in the senior living,particularly again on the
private pay side of things. Butthose demographics are
changing. So I think about someof the future viability and how
(08:21):
we as the marketplace need toadapt with some of that. I'm
surprised to hear you say,surprised and not surprised ,
but I wanna talk a little bitmore about the whole migration
and the moving thing that, y ousaid because, n ow I'm in the
northeast, I'm in New Jersey next b ase i n N apa, and
there's been a lot of the, o h,m ove south to the Florida. And
then there's been some writtenabout the, the halfbacks. W
(08:43):
ell, we get to Florida, maybethat's a little too far a nd we
come and we settle o n theCarolinas. But you're saying
that's very few. And the babychasers thing isn't, maybe it's
a very small portion.
John Burns (08:56):
I think all of that is true, but it's all relative
to, you know, if, if peopleare, those who do move are most
likely to be in a place wherethe weather is miserable, or
I'll just say cold, where theproperty taxes are high 'cause
people hate higher propertytaxes. And there has been a
trend, they call, you call thebaby chasers, I call 'em
(09:19):
helicopter parents. So theseare helicopter parents that are
now grandparents and arehelicoptering their kids and
grandkids. So if the kids arein Florida, we're gonna move to
Florida. But you know where thekids are now, they've got a job
in Dallas. So you're seeingpeople move not to go play golf
(09:39):
as much, but more of a shift oftheir continuation to stay near
their kids . I read this greatstudy once and I've been
looking all over for it . Ican't find it, where Dell Webb
reportedly started Dell Webbbecause when people hit
retirement in the 1960s, theybasically wanna get away from
their families. It was like, Ispent my entire life raising
(10:03):
these people. Now I'm gonna goplay golf and enjoy it. Whereas
the retirees now are like, Iworked hard and I probably
didn't spend enough time withmy kids growing up and I wanna
spend more time with their kidsand, I've been helicoptering
them and I wanna keephelicoptering 'em . That's my
biggest amenity is my family.
Lisa McCracken (10:22):
Interesting.
Well, and then, we don't needto go down this rabbit trail
either, but just acknowledgingthat a lot of the boomers, I
mean, compared to previousgenerations of retirees or ,
65, 75 plus actually morelikely to have zero children.
So even there's just someinteresting things in play
there. So I wanna talk about ,I wanna shift a little bit to
(10:44):
the renter households. Soreally, the fastest growing
segment of renters are the 55to 74 year olds. And then I
don't believe is necessarilyjust about affordability. I
think there's an element ofthat. But what are you all
(11:04):
tracking on the renting trendsside of things?
John Burns (11:07):
What we're seeing that is probably of most
interest to your audience, andI'm sure they've heard about
this built to rent trend thathas taken off the last five or
six years, is a lot of rentersin brand new communities being
built in Dallas and elsewhereare moving from their owned
home in New Jersey or elsewhereto where their kids live and
(11:29):
they're saying, Hey, we'regonna test drive this. We're
gonna rent for a year or two,maybe forever, who knows. Or
maybe the kids are in Dallasnow, but they'll be, they may
move in three or four years.
And so we're gonna rent. Sowe're seeing, again, it's the
baby chaser or a helicopterparent renting. And that makes
(11:51):
a lot of sense. And the builtto rent industry has been doing
great, but it's been strugglinglately because these people are
moving less right now. And Ithink that's attributable to
some of the uncertainty goingon in the world. People are
just kind of locking down andstaying put. We're seeing that
in for rent for sale. We'reseeing that everywhere right
(12:12):
now.
Lisa McCracken (12:13):
Yeah, I know what you just described. Going
in a new market , new area,maybe there's family there and
renting for a period of time,there's a segment of the active
adult rental market that doesthat, they're there for a
couple years and then they moveout, either to another place or
maybe they decide they likethat area. The kids and
grandkids, they seem to stayingthere and they move out and
(12:35):
actually buy a home.
John Burns (12:36):
Our clients that have done master plan
communities are intentionallyputting those built to rent
neighborhoods in their masterplans. At first, they wanted
nothing to do with 'em 'causethey said , oh , these are
renters that's gonna bring downour neighborhood. Then they
realize they're the exactpeople we're talking about. And
they said, well heck, they'rerenting and then they're gonna
buy a home in our community intwo years. So we're seeding our
(12:57):
future sales by providingrental homes. That's been a big
trend that did not exist sevenor eight years ago.
Lisa McCracken (13:04):
Those master plan communities, I know all of
you keep track of , have listsand rankings of those. Do you
have any estimates of how manyof those have some type of an
age segregated, age qualifiedpart to 'em? Is it increasingly
on the radar? Is it a blip, afew here and there?
John Burns (13:23):
I don't know the percentages. I don't think it
has changed much. I thinkthat's been a pretty steady
Yeti component, if you will.
I'm probably seeing fewer, like100% age restricted communities
because the trend is a littlebit more now. Like I wanna live
down the street from the kids.
(13:45):
So you may see an 55 plusneighborhood in a master plan
community, but less so theentire community.
Lisa McCracken (13:54):
I mean, unless you think of the magic salt or
the secret sauces of thevillages, right. Just what a
fascinating thing they've gotgoing on there. Some of the
fastest growing zip codes inthe country, right?
John Burns (14:05):
Yep . Pick up the fastest growing a lot of things
there. We won't get into that.
Lisa McCracken (14:10):
That's right .
That's for another podcast. Imentioned active adult . Do you
guys track that at all? And weknow, I say active adult , so
there's the active adult forsale and there's the active
adult rental. You know, we'reseeing growing interest from
both the multi-family side ofthings as well as the seniors
housing side of things lookingat this for a variety of
(14:32):
different reasons. So anythoughts on the this future
housing option? What you'reseeing?
John Burns (14:37):
I don't think most people wanna come out of a
house into a 1100, 1200 squarefoot apartment 'cause they have
too much stuff and that's whenthis built to rent has been
playing to those folks. 'causethey've got storage and about
half of them have a garage andit feels more like a home. High
(14:59):
rises in Miami might be anexception to that.
Lisa McCracken (15:02):
I had someone recently say to me, and I told
them I was gonna steal this.
And it's to what you just said,that active adult is the
gateway drug for senior housingas in that downsizing piece
because you growing from asingle family home, like you
said, to maybe even if it's aone bedroom , certainly a
(15:23):
studio, but, there's not a hugedemand for them right now i n
seniors housing. There'shundreds of thousands of ' em
out there. But downsizing thatdramatically to maybe a senior
living option, independentliving and so forth, that
that's a big leap where activea dult seems to be a little
less psychologically impactful.
John Burns (15:43):
I mean active adult is like, it's not the end of
your life. I mean, it is thenext phase of fun. I mean, look
at what's happened t o theMargaritaville communities,
which is the ultimate p art.
It's all the Jimmy Buffett fanshere. I'm just gonna have fun
for the next 20 years. That'sbeen the draw and the builders
have done a great job leaninginto that a nd promoting that.
Lisa McCracken (16:05):
I wanna shift it a little bit to a topic. I'm
curious if you have anyinsights on, so it relates to
the affordability, but in ourindustry there are many staff,
often we build senior livingcommunities and not always but
many in very high end affluentneighborhoods. You might have a
view of the water of the oceanon the coast, whatever it might
(16:27):
be. And increasingly, a lot ofthese particularly high-end
communities and these locales,the staff can't necessarily
afford to live in closeproximity to, to the the senior
living community. Have youfollowed any of the workforce
housing stuff? I think t hatthe workforce piece is
something I know our sectoramong many others are gonna be
struggling with.
John Burns (16:47):
And I saw it firsthand too, and my dad was
in an assisted living facilityin Marin County, and my mom was
in another one and just thesepeople were commuting an hour
and a half to work. My shortanswer to that is nobody likes,
which is you just need to paythese people better. I mean, if
you're paying, well, you'regonna get the staff. Nobody
wants to hear that. But if youpick a Marin County, which is
(17:12):
north of San Francisco, thoseretirees are crazy affluent and
it is already expensive to livein there. And I just think you
need to charge a little moreand you'll get the labor that
way.
Lisa McCracken (17:23):
Yeah, there's a lot of conversations around,
how far can you go, with someof the rents and the monthly
fees and what will the marketand the resident tolerate and
'cause at the end of the day,you need to make a margin
obviously to stay in business,but also, how much can you pass
through? And the wages are abig one.
John Burns (17:43):
Nobody talks about this, but I think the biggest
amenity in those facilities isthe quality of the staff and on
how they treat the people andso. I mean, I run my own
business too. We got about 160employees now. You gotta treat
your people really well if youwanna hold onto them. And you
know what, if you do that andyou pay them more, you'll have
(18:05):
less turnover and it'll drop,that'll drop to your bottom
line too. So I'm a big believerin that.
Lisa McCracken (18:11):
Yeah, absolutely. Well , we'll hop on
another time and talk about theworkforce stuff . No doubt.
They are not number twocustomer. Many say, they're
sort of your number onecustomer and then the residents
are obviously a close second orthey're equal. That mindset I
think is important. Right nowthere is limited new
(18:34):
development happening in thesenior living space. And a lot
of that is because of theconstruction costs , capital,
there's some stuff going onthere too. What do you see on
that front? I mean, is it justalways gonna get more and more
expensive? And I know theconstruction side of things,
there's a combination of laboron their end, there's always
some supply chain issues.
(18:55):
Although I think those havegotten better since the height
of the pandemic. Are we lookingat just sort of a long journey
here on the construction callside of things? Where do you
see that?
John Burns (19:06):
We have some of the largest building material
companies in America areclients of ours too. And and
the largest retailers as well.
I mean Home Depot, Lowe's,etcetera. So we're paying a lot
of attention to this. Materialcosts are up 40% during Covid ,
and I can't name any of myclients that is planning on
dropping price this year. And Imentioned that they're
(19:31):
struggling particularly 'causethe remodeling construction is
down, the remodeling is down.
You think there'd be a pricewar and you know, there
probably is, a little bit , butthey're raising prices and if
there's a change, it's to maybea lower quality material. I
mean that , that's how peopleare saving money on costs . And
(19:53):
I don't see any relief on thelabor side of construction
either . So that , and they'regetting cost increases. The raw
materials are going up. Andthis was before we started
layering tariffs in. Nowtariffs are just gonna make it
even worse.
Lisa McCracken (20:08):
I had heard a statistic that , and this
seemed high to me, but I'm notan expert in it, but on the
labor side of things, thatabout 50% of the construction
workforce in this country isimmigrant labor. So when you
look at some of the immigrationstuff too, it seems like just a
lot of things that are someheadwinds on the construction
(20:30):
side of things.
John Burns (20:31):
I believe that there's certain, like drywall
is way higher than that. Butwhere I thought you were gonna
go with that is a hugepercentage of construction
labor is over the age of 50.
You've got an immigrant lack ofimmigration problem now and a
retirement problem. And I thinkwhat is happening is people in
(20:51):
the trades now are starting tomake good money. And that's
becoming a pretty pro . I mean,you can now raise a family if
you're a construction worker.
Lisa McCracken (21:00):
Yeah, it'll definitely be interesting to
watch that. I know we have seenin our space, the construction
timelines lengthen for a lot ofthe reasons that we talked
about, but there's a lot ofconcerns too, even just about
the increased red tape. I don'tknow how much of that is just
local. It's like this last milejust getting approvals and so
forth and time is money onthose. So I feel like at a
(21:23):
certain point we're gonna hit atipping point. And again, does
this happen locally , and soforth where groups are like,
all right , we've gotta dosomething here to at least try
to not have as many barriers tosome development activity in,
in our neighborhoods andmarkets.
John Burns (21:37):
Yeah, I mean that is all local. You're right. And
all of my clients see the samething. The home builders when
they go to outlying areas findless resistance places that are
not as mature and there island. And so you see that's how
you see metro areas expand tothe outlying areas. And the
last couple years we've done, Ithink last year we, we did
(22:00):
feasibility studies in 140metro areas , 30 of which we
had never done a study in fouror five years ago. So we're
going to all these tiny littlemarkets. And you talk about, I
mean , they don't get theheadlines because there's not
thousands of people moving, butthere's hundreds of people
moving to little small marketsin the southeast in particular
(22:24):
because it is affordable.
Lisa McCracken (22:26):
So talking about some market specifics, I
know in my brain, there aresome hotter markets in the
senior living, maybe even someof the development side of
things and so forth, but, andwhere certain markets are more
saturated than others. Arethere any on the , just housing
market in general. Are thereany hot housing markets right
now versus other ones that arenot as hot? I would say
(22:49):
probably more so in terms ofthe ability to sell your home.
How long it takes to sell ahome?
John Burns (22:55):
This is probably a good example of the, you can
have too much of a good thingcomment. So everybody,
including I'm sure all yourlisteners wants to go to the
SMILE states. 'cause that'swhere the strong growth is. And
so what we have seen is anoversupply in the strong growth
markets. So the softest marketsin the country are Texas,
(23:17):
Nashville, Salt Lake, Denver, Ihaven't quite gotten to the
bottom of what's going on innorthern Florida, but
Jacksonville and Orlando too.
All the markets everybody wasrushing into, and it's because
of this , the demand there hasslowed, but there's, it's still
good. But they're oversuppliedand they were oversupplied with
(23:40):
some investors too, not justreal people moving in. And that
caused a problem. And then onthe converse, we're seeing
things are fine in the Midwest,things are fine in the
Northeast. Nobody was, thosearen't the smile states. The
biggest surprise to me becauseI live here is Southern
California is still one of thestrongest markets in the
country. I mean, the migrationhere is terrible. The
(24:02):
affordability is terrible.
They, I employ people here.
They make it really hard to bean employer in California. And
yeah , yet we're seeing strongdemand from affluent people and
actually people from Asia whowanna get out where they
currently live.
Lisa McCracken (24:21):
Interesting.
And that's why we often reporton some national statistics,
and of course we go down intomarkets, but within markets it
can vary. So you just gottaknow your backyard and what's
happening and the dynamics thatare unfolding. So you do know a
bit about the senior housingsector, obviously , you gave a
bit of that in your background.
So given the expertise that youhave on the real estate trends
(24:43):
side of things, knowing ouraudience, is there anything
that you would say to seniorhousing operators, owners,
developers, as we think aboutthe next day , decade of our
evolution? The one good thingabout being a little quiet on
the development side of thingsright now, think it's forcing
us to sort of think about pausea little bit and say, what are
(25:04):
some lessons learned and how dowe need to think maybe a little
differently about the nextdecade and evolution of our
space. But from yourperspective, anything you would
share, advice or perspective?
John Burns (25:15):
I'm gonna give some technology things that maybe
people aren't thinking about.
So, and I've been doing a lotof research on this. So , I
think artificial intelligencein particular, and some of this
quantum computing is reallygoing to accelerate the health
(25:37):
industry where you can get morecustomized medicine and
immunotherapy and all sorts ofthings that can cause you to
live a lot longer. So we'realready talking demographically
about 60% of growth in peopleover the age of 85, 10 years
from now. It could be a lotmore than that. So that's a
(25:59):
positive. On a cautionary sideof that, I think there's some
things going on in roboticsand, other things that can
allow those people to stay intheir house longer. I mean ,
there's already robots thatwill dispense the pills on
time, and call 911 ifsomebody's breathing is a
(26:20):
little off, or the toilet waterisn't right. So pay attention
to both.
Lisa McCracken (26:26):
The home's, the biggest competition, staying in
your home. It's always thebiggest competition to the
senior living sector. And so Ithink, I mean, it's easier and
easier to age in your home.
Now, the socialization piece,you don't get there. And the
pandemic was a big reminder ofI think the importance of that.
But I agree. I think it's gonnabe easier and easier. And to
(26:47):
your point about the livinglonger, there's a lot of time
spent among folks in our sectortoo, just really trying to look
at not just lifespan, buthealth span and the wealth
spans not just living longer,but living longer, healthier.
Some of these AI conversationsgo a little over my head, but
there's a lot of people thatare very, very bullish on what
(27:09):
you talked about and thisliving longer and it's this
personalized health andpredictive stuff that , is
absolutely a part of what wedo. I mean, it's not just
housing that's provided in ourspaces and you know, there's
multiple elements of of care,social determinants of health,
all that stuff. So I definitelythink, a decade, two decades
(27:33):
from things are gonna look verydifferent. I had a CEO recently
say to me, he's like, you know,I remember when we would do the
big, everybody in the communitywould do a big birthday bash
when somebody turned a hundred.
He's like, my gosh, we're doingthem all the time now like
people living longer. It's justfascinating to see even some of
these, multiple generationsunder the same roof. So yeah.
John Burns (27:55):
You're bringing up a good point though. There's
probably some side businessesfrom there. I mean , people are
gonna be more focused onexercising longer and there's a
lot of different type ofamenities you can put in there.
And I'm sure you've read, likeeverybody's read that outlive
book by Peter Atia , what youcall it , medicine 3.0 where
we, we get it, we get to yourbefore the disease happens
(28:16):
rather than afterwards, whichthat could be game changing.
Lisa McCracken (28:19):
Yeah, absolutely. And we've gotta be
thinking like that as a sectorwithout a doubt. So, I
appreciate your time today. Anyfinal thoughts? Anything we
didn't touch on where you'dlike to say? Lisa? I , I'd like
to comment on this before wewrap up.
John Burns (28:32):
The only thingwe skirted over a little early on
was the supply. So that's thehardest thing to monitor. We
started some capital surveysand maybe we should do one for
senior housing too, because Ithink that's the best way to
figure it out. If the money isflowing in, you're gonna see a
(28:53):
lot of supply. So I guess givemyself a new idea for a new
survey to pay attention.
Lisa McCracken (28:59):
Well, and we know that there are, the senior
living is more, is seniorshousing is definitely more on
the radar in circles that ithasn't been ever before, which
we think is a good thing. Andcapital included in that. And
it's gonna be interesting tosee how that unfolds. And
that's exciting. I think itrequires education. So people
(29:19):
are making smart investments'cause the operational
complexity of senior living isvery different than a
multi-family housing. But Ithink that that's exciting and
it presents opportunity. Well,thank you again, John Burns for
being our guest on the NICChats Podcast. For those of you
who wanna check this out andthen other podcasts, you can
(29:40):
visit nic.org, and appreciateyou listening today. Thank you
very much.
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