Episode Transcript
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(00:00):
Every single season for fantasy football we see second year wide
receivers make that jump to the great and elite tier for fantasy
point scoring. So today I'm giving you 5 wide
receivers that can make that jump and win you your league.
(00:24):
Now, the data behind second yearwide receivers breaking out more
than any other year is really, really strong.
This data is courtesy of Rodoviz.
This is an unpaid ad guys. I just want to mention right, I
use rodovizrodoviz.com for basically all of my advanced
stats. I pay for their subscription.
(00:44):
I absolutely love them. And I used this data last year
to predict Jackson Smith and Jigba OK as my #1 sleeper.
So I'll just pull up these receipts real quick right here.
Here we are, August 5th last year.
It's easy to forget just how dominant JSN was in college.
Better than Garrett Wilson, better than Olave at a younger
age, similar college sophomore seasons to Marvin Harrison,
(01:07):
played through injury his rookieseason.
And here you have it. Here's the same exact graph
we're using this year with this over 15% breakout rate for year
2 wide receivers, the most amongany age group.
OK, it continues. I said the ceiling for JSN is
like a Monroe St. Brown level slot receiving
productions. A Monroe St.
Brown and JJ at this point last year were the most yardage from
(01:30):
the slot over the past two seasons.
So 2023 and 2022. I said JSN can go in do exactly
that. And then finally I put it all
together and said that JSN is the number one sleeper for 2024
fantasy football. He was a my guy.
Second year breakout on the way and yes, finished as a top ten
wide receiver. So Needless to say, we're going
to be going over 5 candidates today who can do that and we're
actually going to once we do themock draft at the end of the
(01:53):
episode C who really is like thebreakout who who do I think is
the next JSN? And again, guys, check out
Rotoviz this article. Should we still be chasing year
2 wide receiver breakouts Reallyjust takes you through that.
They have the highest breakout rate among any year group for
wide receivers. They have the highest PPR added
by year, highest receiving expected points added by year,
(02:17):
average route runs by year. Guess what?
Year 2 is the most. So definitely check out
Rotovsguys. Again, not a paid AD.
I literally just use them for everything and basically the
thoughts today are are based on their data.
OK so as I said, sophomore wide receivers, on average, they run
more total routes. As a result, they generate more
expected fantasy points and as aresult, they score more PPR
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fantasy points. OK, so let's hop into our first
candidate for this breakout, guys, and it's going to be
Marvin Harrison on the Cardinals.
Now, this is kind of the most obvious one on the list, and
there's a lot of MHJ slander I'mnoticing.
I'm noticing a lot of people areout on him.
Whatever. I will admit that the third
round price tag isn't my favorite.
I do wish it was a fourth or a fifth round, to be honest.
(03:00):
And honestly, if we drafted Marvin, OK, third, fourth, fifth
round last year, I don't know how upset we'd be.
Like, we would be let down for sure on his production.
But guys, the utilization was actually really good.
The only reason we're so upset about Marvin Harrison is because
we drafted him in the first round, which looking back on it,
was a little dumb, OK? His rookie utilization last year
(03:21):
was great. Ran 523 routes, OK, which was
13th most among all wide receivers.
If you look at the first qualification average routes
added by year, Year 2 wide receivers add the most routes,
guys, They add about 65 routes on average.
So if Marvin Harrison adds 65 routes to his already 523 ran,
he's approaching that 600 mark. 600 routes run in a year.
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Top ten at the position easily. OK, 116 targets, those targets
will increase, OK. That was 19th last year and 23%
target share. So I really see all of these
metrics going up now and he's going to be better, I think.
So the bad part was that only 71% of his targets were
catchable. That's not good.
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Third worst among all wide receivers with 80 plus targets
last year. I actually view that more as a
Kyler Murray issue. So if Murray begins to connect
with Marvin Harrison, all of these metrics go up routes, run
targets, target percentage. Marvin really will have a clear
path to a top 12 wide receiver finish.
What's my evidence to suggest that Murray, oops, just hit my
mic. Excuse me, that Murray will
(04:27):
connect with Marvin in 2025 and increase that catchable target
rate. My evidence is that he's done it
with worst wide receivers. For example, if not so long ago,
2-3. Four years ago we saw Hollywood
Brown in his first year all overcoming over from Baltimore.
He was, when healthy for those two seasons with Murray, a top
ten if not top five wide receiver for many stretches
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there. When both of those players were
healthy, he was a wide receiver.1 Marvin Harrison is 10 times
the receiver that Hollywood Brown is.
And it might seem silly like I'mreaching, but we really haven't
seen a true number one option for Kyler since Hollywood Brown.
And the entire Hollywood Brown experience with Kyler was
riddled by injuries for both of those players.
So I'm really excited to see Marvin this year, see what
(05:12):
happens. Now we're going to start getting
into some guys deeper down the draft board, right?
You didn't click on this video for me to tell you that to draft
Marvin Harrison, he's going Top 40 overall, you know, worst
case. So the first guy who's going a
little later is Roma Dunze. Now he we kind of weren't
expecting much from him, from him his rookie year.
He was good for stretches there,OK.
But the underlying metrics yet again, and we're really calling
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on the routes run number here, 495 routes in his rookie season,
that's 14th most and 94 area yards per game.
We have Ben Johnson coming over.OK, Ben Johnson's Detroit
offense last year, 278 receivingyards per game, second most,
0.37 EPA per target, second most, 7% touchdowns per target
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rate, third most. And last year we saw to close
the season weeks 11 through 17 that St.
Brown and Jameis and Williams were both wide receiver once.
So I really think there's a world that exists where DJ
Moore, right, and Roma Dunze canreally hit their fantasy
potential. Both can be top 15 wide
receivers. Roma Dunze is a complete
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well-rounded monster wide receiver.
So I really do believe that boththese guys can produce.
All right, moving on, our third guy in the list of five is Keon
Coleman. He really passed the rookie eye
test in year 1 when he was fullyhealthy and when he was in a
full time role. Not only did he look the part as
a as a real wide receiver one, but he produced.
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There really were only two gameslast year where Coleman was
fully healthy and Coleman was playing a full allotment of
snaps as a starting wide receiver.
It was week 7 and Week 8. Both of those weeks he finished
as the wide receiver. 13 for fantasy, 14 1/2 fantasy points
in week 715, 1/2 fantasy points in Week 8.
And he was just starting to produce like there.
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That trend was beginning. You need three data points, OK,
for a trend. But then he got injured and he
was out for four weeks. Was never the same after he
returned. So he seems to be crushing it in
training camp so far. I see in now in 2025, the Bills
that wide receiver one spot is still open.
OK, Elijah Moore, Khalil Shakur,they're good.
(07:21):
They'll be solid for fantasy, maybe as a wide receiver 4, but
a true wide receiver 1A true X Excuse me, a true wide receiver
one like Diggs was, for example,I'm talking for Josh Allen.
Keon Coleman can be that guy andI think he has the best chance
of any of those wide receivers in Buffalo to do it.
The offense will be top three inscoring yet again.
Now here's the guy who in my opinion, and and we will crown
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this person OK, we will crown this wide receiver at the end of
the episode because I need to think on it a little more.
But Ricky Pearsall's the next man on this list activated off
the pup this week. I'm recording this July 28th
early in the morning. So we've yet to see if he's
actually been activated, but I believe he is OK.
It's like 6:00 AM right now. So I so I don't we haven't heard
(08:04):
about practice today, but he hasfirst round draft capital, OK,
from just a season ago. And oftentimes guys, we're if
we're betting on the next JSN, the next second year breakout
wide receiver, it starts with draft capital.
JSN first rounder Ricky Piersall, first rounder, he
ended his rookie season on a high note, as did JSN a year
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ago. For Piersall in week 1725
fantasy points, he was top 8IN week 1816 fantasy points, you
know, top 15 wide receiver. And I just look around the
offense and all I see is just someone needs to step up here.
Jawan Jennings is unhappy with his current deal, so he wants a
contract or might request to be traded.
More of the story is he's not happy.
Iuke is not healthy, not ready to play right now.
(08:47):
Debo Samuel's gone. George Kittle's another year
older. I believe he's 31 now.
He's a tight end, so he's not going to get 15 targets a game.
OK, Mccaffrey's healthy, but younever know.
So who's next? Who is left?
I think it's Piersol. I really think that Ricky
Piersol, assuming he can stay healthy, beat this hamstring
injury, get a full training campminus this first week.
(09:09):
I think he can be the guy all right in in in San Francisco and
he's an early candidate for my next JSN.
OK, and the final guy on the list guys before we get into the
mock draft is his Xavier worthy talk about strong finishes to a
rookie year a lot. This kind of went like under the
radar. But in fantasy playoffs weeks 15
through 1721 fantasy points per game, that was top 1010 plus
(09:32):
targets per game. Magic number as you guys know
who watch this channel is 9 plustargets per game.
Receivers who hit that 9 plus targets and play 1514 game, very
high percentage chance they're going to finish as a top 12 wide
receiver. And in the playoffs, Xavier
Worthy was really a key to them making the Super Bowl.
The Chiefs 85% of snaps played and he had a touchdown per game.
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In the playoffs, he is a locked in chief starting wide receiver
locked in. OK, he has a unique role in the
offense where he gets the jet sweeps, he gets the bombs,
things like that and Rasheed Rice is going to be suspended
for most likely six games. So fire up Xavier worthy locked
in wide receiver 2 to start the season.
Now let's move into all right, let's move into the mock draft.
(10:13):
As you guys know, we're going tojust randomize our position
here. Just want to check the settings
and make sure there's no timing.I can talk and yap all I want.
62nd timer was on, so thank goodness I checked.
All right, let's update that andlet's go ahead and click start
the draft. Let's see if we can grab some of
these receivers and how we're going to draft these receivers.
(10:34):
Now we end up with the second pick overall.
Feel like we've been getting really lucky with that pick
lately. I'm turning off my face Cam so
you guys can see the draft board.
All right, We're second overall CD Lamb goes 1st and I'm going
to go ahead and select one JamarChase, right?
So if I have a first two pick, one O 1 or one O 2, I'm taking
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Chase or Bijan. I typically lean Bijan because I
think the wide receivers at the 2 three turn are much stronger
than the running backs there. Now with that being said, we're
going to be targeting wide receivers a bit later in this
draft. So at 2-3 here, we will probably
go RBRB unless Trey McBride's available and he is, so let's
see. So Trey is available just for
fun. I'll probably take him, yeah.
(11:19):
Let's go Trey McBride here at 23rd overall, and then we'll go
RB, we'll take Chase Brown. So through our first 3 picks, we
have Jamar Chase, Trey McBride and Chase Brown.
Typically, I would kind of avoidthe same team for wide receiver
in RB and Chase Brown and Jamar Chase maybe would have gone
Chyron there if it was real life.
But again, let's just try to prove this point that there's a
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lot of value at wide receiver late.
Again, we're looking at Worthy, and I'm just going to go ahead
and start marking these guys off.
So Worthy. Let's add him to the queue.
Queue him up. Let's add Pearsall to the queue.
Queue him up. Let's add Keon Coleman to the
queue. And who else are we talking?
We talked a little bit about Marvin.
We'll probably miss him in this draft.
(12:01):
Roma Dunsay. OK, let's add Rome to the queue.
Now it seems stupid. And I, I don't edit these videos
because I, I literally want you guys to see every single click
that I make for my drafts. That's what I want you to see.
So when you see me go through and queue these players, I don't
start any draft without doing that.
I have a list of players that I want, a list of sleepers, a list
(12:24):
of players on I would draft above their ADPA list of players
I'm fading. I don't queue those, but the
first two groups, right? I queue them up and I target
them in drafts and I'm fine paying for them.
And I see when other players aredrafting, if those picks start
going, I just, it's just a subtle reminder subconsciously
that I need to go in on those guys that I like.
I do before every single draft, every single draft.
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All right, so we're up in the fourth.
Let's take a look at these ADPS here.
So it's too early for Xavier Worthy, Too early for a
doomsday. Coleman Piersall, we have 1QB1
running back, one tight end. If Burrow's available, would be
pretty funny to just have the entire Bengals offense.
Let's see he's available. Yeah, let's let's have some fun
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with it and we're going to go with Joe Burrow.
We have Joe Burrow, Jamar Chase,Chase Brown, and Trey McBride.
It should be about 80% if not every single touchdown accounted
for for the Bengals offense. No problem there.
We're up in the 5th and we're probably going to go back to the
RB well with Chuba Hubbard. OK, so the team threw 5 rounds,
Burrow, Chase Brown, Chuba Hubbard, Jamar Chase, and Trey
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McBride. What this team needs now is wide
receivers. Let's see if Xavier Worthy makes
it back to us. He does not.
He goes in the fifth round. Totally fine.
We'll queue up the wide receiverposition here.
I have Jalen Waddle on the board.
Crystal Lave. I'm starting to like those guys
a little bit more. Let's go ahead and draft Crystal
Lave in the 6th and now in the 7th, right?
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Roma Dunze goes one pick after us at the 612, which is a
complete reach. A complete reach.
That makes me upset. So what I'm going to do is I'm
I'm just going to play a little because I want to see how the
team looks with the Doonese. So a complete reach.
I mean that's like 15 picks before where Rome's going.
So I'm going to remove him from team 12.
I'm going to give team 12. Jalen Waddle.
(14:11):
Set player Jalen Waddle and we're going to take O Doonese at
the 7th. We are going to draft him at the
7th. Set player Rome.
Yeah, 7980P going at 612. OK, let's resume the draft.
The draft has resumed and Rome is our flex.
Rome is our first flex here. So looking at the roster guys,
(14:35):
we have Burrow, Chase, Brown andChuba Hubbard.
Jamar Chase, Crystal Lave and Roma Doonese is our flex.
What if Roma Doonese is the nextJSN and this team now This team
now has Jamar Chase and JSN of 2024.
This is exactly the type of stuff you should be thinking of,
right? Do we like this team?
Admittedly, week one, I'm probably not trying to start
Romo Doonsai. I want to give it a week.
(14:56):
So still drafting here. We need another flex option on
the board. Ricky.
Pure Salt's coming up, 97 ADP. I'll go ahead and select him and
then I'll go back to our flexes.Khalil Shakur, Josh Downs.
Yeah, maybe Armandre Stevenson at the RB position.
Who else is available? Scataboo.
Taije Spears. We'll go with another wide
receiver in Khalil Shakur. I'm looking for a week 1 starter
(15:18):
because Pierce all I know, Doonese as my 2 flex options.
I'm not super confident about them in week one.
They could come out, set the world on fire, go crazy.
That'd be awesome. The team would be great, but
week one I'm most likely starting Khalil Shakur over
Romo. Doonese in that flex spot coming
back to us in the 10th round here.
Keon Coleman still on the board,love to grab him.
We do and that's 12345 wide receivers in a row.
(15:41):
I'll probably go back and draft JK Dobbins in the 11th fair.
So the team is looking great. Guys are very happy with this
team. We have the Burrow and Jamar
Chase stack, We have Chase Browntoo at RB with Chuba Hubbard.
So the RV's really are high quality.
The wide receivers behind Jamar Chase, we have Chris Olave and
then we got our guys Roma Dunze,Ricky Pearsall, Keon Coleman,
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breakout, potential sophomore breakout everywhere and really
just guys that can hit that highceiling.
Supercharge the roster. Our final pick in the draft.
I've been liking drafting a latetight end lately.
Bretton Strange here, great pickin the 12th and that's the final
roster guys, final draft board. I'll just give it a little
scroll through all right, and that's going to do it yet again.
(16:24):
Burrow and chase stack. We've chase Brown and Chuba
Hubbard, Crystal lava, Trey McBride at tight end.
This team is this team is legit.This team is legit.
Hope you guys enjoyed the episode today guys.
Peace.