6 Breakout RBs with League-Winning Upside | Fantasy Football 2025

6 Breakout RBs with League-Winning Upside | Fantasy Football 2025

Episode Transcript

(00:00):
Yes, guys, undervalued running backs and fantasy football
drafts typically win you leaguesbecause they break out over the
course of the season, they outperform their ADP, and they
supercharge your roster. Sometimes they're rookies,
sometimes they are sleepers, sometimes they are veterans.

(00:26):
So today I'm taking you through my targets for this year's
breakout running backs. Now last year, three players,
right, who kind of fit this moldfor the rookie we have Bucky
Irving. We head over to the points
scored last year, finished all the way up at RB 13 in PPR and
that's including every single game on the season.
If you really just kind of nitpick the games where he was

(00:48):
the lead RB, man, he was a top five guy as all of you know, to
close the season. Chase Brown is kind of in that
sleeper category. Finished as PPRRB 10 last year.
But yet again, I mean, weeks 8 through the end of the season
was a top three fantasy RB averaging 24 opportunities per
game, all for 20 fantasy points per game.
And then we have Chuba Hubbard, who kind of just all season

(01:09):
showed up every week, put in thework, did his thing, RB 14
overall and he did not play weeks 17 and 18.
So you include or excuse me, youexclude that maybe make the
range from weeks one through 16.He was a top 12 running back.
So these guys really were leaguewinners.
And this time last year during draft season, we're undervalued.
So let's go into our first drafttarget, our first undervalued

(01:30):
running back. And I'll begin with this guy,
right? I'll say I'll say something that
might be a little contradictory.I'm in on Ken Walker, but the
player I want to talk about right now is Zach Charbonnay
because he's too good to ignore last year as a starting running
back per game, 21.2 fantasy points.
By the way, that is the exact same number as Saquon Barkley

(01:51):
averaged last season across 18 games though 20 plus
opportunities for Charbonnay in these five games where he was
the starter, where Ken Walker was out well over 5 yards of
carry and he was a top three fantasy football running back.
So what that tells me is if Charbonnay were ever to see the
lead role here, he'd be a top ten, top 12 for sure running

(02:11):
back. With that being said, Walker
still exists, but Walker has missed 2 plus games in every
single year of his career. Both of these guys are 24 years
old I believe. OK, but then what?
Really. Right.
So this was kind of common knowledge, but what really stood
out to me was when I looked at the fantasy points per touch
metric, which I put together every single year.
It's one of the most telling metrics.

(02:31):
All right, when we look at the fantasy points per touch here,
what what stands out to me? Oh, hold on.
OK, Sorry for those of you watching, we had a little hiccup
there. But what stands out to me for
fantasy points per touch is hereis Zach Charbonnay, 0.89 fantasy
points per touch, number seven among 56 qualified running
backs. We move this down a little bit.

(02:55):
All the way down, or should I say kind of midway through the
list, is Ken Walker at 0.78. So in terms of scoring raw
fantasy points, you guys, Zach Charbonnet last year was much
better than Ken Walker. And it's interesting because
Charbonnet was not the start of the whole year, but in those
games he scored more fantasy points per touch. 0.89.
I mean, he's in a category here of Divine H and David
Montgomery, Derrick Henry. Those are the guys ahead of

(03:17):
Charbonnet. Gorendo right behind him,
surprisingly Saquon Barkley, Rashad White and Irving
surprisingly also right behind him, Taj Spears at 12th.
A side note here, kind of just realizing now that Rashad White
and Bucky Irving were top 12 in this metric, which is just
speaks to Liam Cohen's offense in my opinion, to get me excited
for Jacksonville. OK anyway, Zach Charbonnay is
the first guy I think that if hecan get this Seattle backfield

(03:41):
to a 5050 split, there could be some nice value there for him.
And I'm going to show you guys how I'm drafting these running
backs in drafts at the end of the episode with a mock draft as
we always do, OK? But the next guy on the list is
Cam Scataboo. So some of these guys on the
list, honestly, the majority of them will be running backs, and
that's because we're talking about breakouts.
But sometimes, most of the time,R BS who are going to be good in

(04:03):
the league break out in their rookie year.
So we'll start with Cam Scataboo.
He was the only college running back last year with over 1000
rush yards, over 500 receiving yards, and 1.5 plus yards per
route run, which is a very telling underlying utilization
metric here for how good you areas a pass catcher.
OK, 100 plus missed tackles forced only two running backs to

(04:25):
the last year. Genti, Who?
You've heard of Ashton Genti? If not, just Google him and Cam
Scataboo. OK, last year, Monster final
season, 2300 plus total yards, 24 touchdowns.
And this week he will begin competing.
All right, he will begin competing this week with Tyrone
Tracy for that job. I like Tracy, but I think
Scataboo wins it before the end of the season.

(04:46):
Next on the list is Caleb Johnson.
Jalen Warren is simply not the answer in Pittsburgh.
It's very obvious because you don't draft Caleb Johnson as
high as you draft him. A guy with three down skill set.
A guy who reminds Mike Tomlin, probably a lot of Naji Harris.
You don't draft him if Jalen Warren is the answer.
OK so Caleb is going to take theNaji role. 18 plus opportunities
per game. That is a massive number.

(05:09):
That is a magic number as well. Most R BS who hit 18 plus
opportunities a game finished top 12.
You know, assuming they play a reasonable amount of games last
year. His advanced stats are very
good. 861 breakaway yards. That's second among all college
running backs and over 1000 yards after contact.
Fourth among all running backs. He actually had a higher Caleb

(05:31):
Johnson did a higher breakaway percentage on his runs, 56.1%
breakaway percentage than AshtonGenteel last year.
So an elite pure rusher. Soft hands, very good after the
catch, very good in space. One of those running backs who
can run you over and then Juke you out, OK, gets past line of
scrimmage and then keeps going after contact.
Very special qualities. So it's a match made in heaven

(05:51):
with Caleb Johnson, OK and the Steelers.
Similarly, Speaking of matches made in heaven, Marian Hampton
is creeping up my draft board. I'm uploading this week a
running back ranking video or I might have already uploaded it.
If you're watching this, if it'snot on my channel yet, it's
coming. But a Marion Hampton, spoiler
alert, is my RB 13. He is borderline RB-1 because

(06:12):
Naji Harris now after this eye injury, is missing the start of
training camp on the non football injury list.
And even if Harris was playing, I mean last year, 0.6 fantasy
points per touch, 46th best, so 10th, so I guess 10th worst.
All right, 3.9 yards per carry, third worst in Hampton's last 25
games by comparison, over 3100 rush yards, 30 rush touchdowns.

(06:34):
OK, he has back-to-back seasons with 300 plus touches like dude,
3 down bell cow freak of nature in Harbaugh's offense with no
Harris. What are I mean, I mean, what
are we doing here? First round draft capital like
should be probably a top 12 RB and he's RB 13 for me right now.
Maybe it changes now. We'll talk a little bit now here

(06:56):
about a guy named Taiji Spears, OK, who kind of is fitting the
Chase Brown role for me from last year.
So as the Titans lead RB to close 2024, a lot of you don't
remember, but he actually was the lead RB last year in the
fantasy football playoffs. He averaged 20.7 fantasy points
per game, 16 opportunities per game, 61% of snaps.

(07:18):
So that's 61% of snaps isn't crazy and on on, on that number
of snaps over 20 fantasy points and 16 opportunities.
The better running backs in thatspan for fantasy football
purposes, guys, JT, Bijan Robinson, Jamir Gibbs, James
Cook. So only four other running backs
are better and they were all monsters last year and are
monsters this year. OK, so every single time he's
seen 50% snaps or more last season, Spears has been an RB-1.

(07:43):
OK, here are the games week 1516and 17.
As you can see, RB 1 and 100% ofthem 27 points week 1521 points
week 16 and then 13, almost 14 points in a week 17.
Next on the list is Trevion Henderson.
I view Henderson as this year's Bucky Irving.
Obviously you know they're different from a prospect level

(08:04):
and and things like that, but interms of situation, he reminds
me of Bucky Irving versus RashadWhite, except it's Trevion
Henderson versus Romadres Stevenson.
He's the only rookie last year with 1000 rush yards and 200
receiving yards and seven yards per carry. 7YO yo 7 yards per
carry. He has 0 fumbles lost on 667

(08:27):
career touches. All Romandre does is fumble the
football. This guy has literally never
lost a fumble. Like a video does not exist of
Trevor and Henderson losing a fumble.
You cannot show me that. That's insane.
So I think it's simply a matter of time before he's the lead
running back in New England. Now before we get into the mock
draft, there are some other targets I just want to talk
about. Some undervalued guys who I

(08:48):
think, you know, some of these veterans might be on the verge
of the best season yet. OK.
Javonte Williams is going to start the season as the bell
count 15 opportunities per game.We're hearing there's like
attitude issues with Jaden Blue,which, whatever.
But yeah, I don't know. Anyway, Javonte should be the
lead RB and I think he slept on.He's still still a good age, a

(09:09):
veteran, but could do it. JK Dobbins is currently the
Denver RB-1. Every time he's given a lead
opportunity, he's good in it. We saw that last year with the
Chargers, then DeAndre Swift. I hope he benefits from Ben
Johnson. And similarly with three
rookies, OK, who I think could be on the verge of a, quote,
breakout season, even though it's the rookie year.
Kyle Menongi, which again, this is credit to Ben Johnson.

(09:29):
Ben Johnson's backfield last year in Detroit averaged 35, OK,
35 opportunities, total opportunities per game.
So if Menongi can just get over Roshan Johnson as the RB2IN
Chicago, he doesn't even have tobeat out DeAndre Swift to see
value. He's a complete sleeper.
Dylan Sampson now with Quinch onJudkins sidelined for like 6

(09:49):
weeks. Even if Judkins was playing, I
still like Samson. But I really like Samson now.
He's the best Cleveland running back.
Do not be betting on your own forward with like a fourth fifth
round pick. Please don't do that.
And Trevor ETN, yes Trevor, not Travis, even though I still like
Travis. But Trevor ETN guys is 20 years
old similar to Samson. 2 rookieswho are 20 history favors 20

(10:10):
year old rookie running backs. Trevor, by the way, is on the
Panthers, so we're talking a little Chuba Hubbard earlier,
but he's a very good pass catcher, gives me like James
White vibes. OK, so maybe you never know.
Deep, deep sleeper. OK, what I want to do first
before we mock draft, and this will be quick, but I want to
look at the fast draft ADP because fast draft guys is in

(10:32):
touch with the pulse of community and these players.
So let's just go ahead and because it's ADP is updated live
after every single draft. So let's take a look at the
running backs on our list, see where they're going in drafts.
We'll discuss if their values are not OK.
So the first one is Zach Charbonnet.
We'll type his name in. By the way, guys on fast draft,
10 team drafts. OK, you draft a good team every

(10:53):
time. It's so easy.
There's a reversal. So the draft board is even.
It's the best place to draft. Use code no expert when you're
signing up. Link is in the bio.
You get, what is it, 50 free dollars up to 50 free dollars in
a deposit match, which is 3 freedrafts.
So it's a no brainer. I prefer it to other best ball
platforms because there's less people on it.

(11:14):
It's total scoring so you don't have to memorize the schedule,
shit like that. OK, so Zach Charbonnay going
123rd overall, a 12th round pickon fast draft.
I actually like that. I think that's a big, big value
because you're getting a guy, first of all, you're getting
basically the best handcuff in all the fantasy in the 12th
round. So he's probably your RB5RB6 all

(11:36):
right, but you're getting a guy who, if he carves out a role
5050 split in Seattle, he's probably an RV 2 and you're
snagging him 123rd overall. We'll walk through a couple more
of these guys. Can't scataboo.
I'm sure he's going to be a little higher on the board here,
Probably top 100. Let me see, 103rd for scataboo.
So again, 11th overall. Excuse me, 11th round pick in

(11:58):
the same series like Michael Pittman, Tyron Tracy at 108, a
Mecca egg Buca. So I think he's appropriately
placed scataboo and a good pick there.
Caleb Johnson, I know he's goingto be going high in this draft
over on fast draft. Let's take a look.
Yeah, 61 overall, so seventh round pick.
But right after James Conner, ahead of guys like DeAndre Swift
we mentioned, don't have to lookhim up.

(12:19):
He's 66th overall. Pretty good value.
Hampton is going high. But I'll, I'll just tell you
right now, I don't think it's high enough.
Let's take a look at Hampton, 41st overall.
It's a fifth round pick. Some Arby's going ahead of him,
you know, Priest Hall, Kyron Williams.
I agree with Kyron. I don't agree with Breece, Bucky
Irving, like I think he should be in this third round.

(12:40):
Guys, Hampton, I really do him very high on him.
Look up a couple more here. Ty J Spears is just simply going
to be a value. Let's take a look at Spears on
fast draft. 127th overall for Spears, similar RB range as
Jaden Blue and Isaac Gorendo. Spears needs to be higher in
absolute value on fast draft. And again, guys, this is the
best place to play best ball. I do whole strategy write ups

(13:03):
for this in my discord. Join below and use code.
No expert guys, when you sign upfor fast draft $50 free deposit
match, let's hop into a mock draft of our own here.
And these AD PS will be a littledifferent.
They're more resembling of your home leagues, for example.
But as always, we'll do a randomorder.
I'll press start draft, it'll put us somewhere.
And let's try to cash in on someof these late R BS.

(13:23):
Now what I'd like to do honestlyis do a little bit of A0RB
action if I'm allowed because honestly I never do and I'd like
to just test. That's what mock drafting is all
about. Test how our team will look if
we do not pick a running back inthe 1st 345 rounds.
OK so let's see a Monras St. Brown is on the board at the
109. He will come home.

(13:44):
Maybe we get lucky with the Brock Bowers.
We don't. He goes 112 and let me remove my
face Cam for you guys because I know that you can't see.
OK, it's been removed. So now you guys can see all the
pics on the board. 109 we go a Monras St.
Brown. After us it was Collins, Thomas
Bowers, Henry, A.J. Brown, Drake London.
Now a Chan's on the board, Gentie CMC.

(14:04):
It's taking a lot for me to not draft them, but for the in the
spirit of trying things, we willgo with maybe Josh Allen.
Probably a little early. Lad Mcconkey's on the board.
Really the the pick really is a Chan Gentie or McCaffrey.
But for experiment's sake, Lad Mcconkey, come on home.
Even though your ADP is 22, it'sabout 7 picks early.

(14:27):
All right, so through two roundswe have St.
Brown and Mcconkey. You know, for real life
purposes, you could say St. Brown and London.
St. Brown and AJB, OK, if those two
guys were there, might have taken them.
Probably not taking London or excuse me, probably not taking
Mcconkey. The two O 4 in any draft.
But again, we are experimenting.So we're back up at three O 9.
The third round started with Wilson, McBride, Higgins, Taylor

(14:49):
Daniels, Interesting. James Cook, Tyree Kill, Mike
Evans and we're back at the three O 9.
Marvin Harrison on the board. Devante Adams, Terry Mclaurin.
Not in love, guys. All right, not in love.
Yeah, let's just keep being funny and take Jalen Hurts.
Now, again, this is not this is not going to be a great team,
but I just want to see what it looks like if we go 0RB and see

(15:12):
where some of these running backs are going.
So maybe Hampton is on the board.
OK, so Hampton is on the board here.
We're in the fourth round. If we want to take him, now's
the time to take him. So let's just go ahead and take
him. All right?
And that was some zero RB. Wow, 4 rounds and we already got
one, but I want to see what my team looks like with Hampton as
my 1:00 and just kind of take a look so that that pick probably
should have been George Kittle. Again, just messing around here,

(15:35):
seeing how we can find value at the position.
Let me put my face Cam back on for you guys.
OK, it's back on. So through 4 rounds we have St.
Brown, Mcconkey, Hertz and Hampton.
Not a great team. OK, not not a great team.
Tight end are gone for this round.
We have the Port and Hawkinson probably would have taken one,
but they are not there. So we're going to be looking at

(15:56):
like Evan Ingram, maybe a Kelseylater, a Jake Ferguson, guys
like that. In terms of wide receivers on
the board, a lot of a worthy Waddle Pickens is there.
You guys know I love my George Pickens.
In terms of running back, not a lot of guys we talked about.
We're coming up on Henderson, Swift range, Caleb Johnson, but
not yet. So let's go back to wide
receiver here and let's draft George Pickens as our wide

(16:21):
receiver 3. I picked him over a larvae
worthy Waddle, honestly, same tier.
Love me some Pickens and we comeback to us in the sixth round.
And who are we looking at now inthe sixth round?
Arby's. We're staying.
We're avoiding this tier of Pacheco, Jones, Harvey, Tracy.
We're avoiding that tight end. We have Kelsey on the board.

(16:43):
OK, I'll go Kelsey. Quite the interesting draft
here, guys. So through what are we through 6
rounds, we have Hertz, I'm on our St.
Brown lad Mcconkey, Kelsey, George Pickens, and now we're
really going to get into that RBrange.
So the remainder of this draft guys is really just going to be
RB and wide receiver kind of, you know, back and forth, if you
will. So let's take a look who's

(17:04):
available for RB at the seven O 9 and there's our guy Trevi on
Henderson get on the team. So we have Hampton and Henderson
pretty awesome. And hopefully Caleb Johnson is
available here in the eighth. He is and just like that, I
mean, I understand that, you know, it's I understand it's not
the best team ever, but it serves the purpose of showing

(17:25):
you the type of RB core you can build guys, if you just wait on
the position and find these undervalued guys, we have
Hampton Henderson and Caleb Johnson.
So most likely, you know, Henderson is probably on the
bench to start week 1 unless we hear something out of training
camp. All right.
But if I'm rolling into week onewith Hampton and Johnson,
assuming things remain how they are right now, I'm pretty happy

(17:46):
with that. I also just realized the roster
settings are for for superflex. Let me get rid of that.
OK, and resume draft. All right, we're back.
So through 8 rounds, the team isn't great, but again, for the
exercise of showing the R BS youcan get, I'm pretty happy with
how it turned out. We have Hertz, Hampton and
Henderson, St. Brown, Mcconkey, Kelsey Pickens

(18:07):
and Caleb Johnson as the first guy off the bench.
Let's keep building this this roster out.
Keep looking for value late at the nine O 9 Ty J Spears and
honestly, I'd be pretty surprised if the next pick is
not Zach Charbonnay in the 10th round.
Ten O 4 bring him home. Oh my gosh, He went one pick
before us and it was a reach. Crazy.
Let's head over to the wide receiver position and Josh Downs

(18:27):
is the guy here as our wide receiver 4 on the team again
behind Saint Brown, Mcconkey andPickens.
Downs is a great wide receiver, 4.
He's going a little earlier on some of these basketball
platforms like fast draft, but even in the seventh, eighth
round. I do like Downs and now we will
just close out this draft at Buca, get on the team in the
11th. And then for the RB, we do have

(18:48):
JK Dobbins on the board still. Hopefully he makes it to us as a
guy. We mentioned he does OK, so
cool. There's just so much late
running back value. And I'll say it again, I sound
like a broken record, but kind of ignore like the team as a
whole. It's not a good team.
But I just wanted to see like ifwe really waited on running back
and I reached on Hampton at the end of the fourth, he's really a

(19:09):
fifth rounder right in this in this exact format And in your
home league, probably if you're playing fast draft or whatever,
you know, 41st overall. And I picked him where he should
have gone OK, But we have Hertz,OK.
I wish we had a better tight endsince we went zero RB kind of
choked the Kittle pick there with Hampton.
Maybe I should have waited. OK, But we could have had Hertz

(19:29):
and Kittle at QB and tight end. Then we would have had Henderson
and Caleb Johnson at running back.
I'm on our St. Brad Lad Mcconkey, 2 top 12
receivers again with Kittle withHertz.
So when you're doing a 0 RBA, 0 wide receiver build, maybe some
of you sickos out there always want to get the elite QB, always
want to get the elite tight ends.
So this was a fun exercise. Hope you guys enjoyed the

(19:50):
episode today. Again, breakout running backs,
guys, they win leagues these undervalued running backs.
That's why hero running back, for example, a Bijana Gibbs, a
Saquon, A Gentie, and then wait at the position to scoop up this
undervalued running backs. Guys, good luck this year.
Keep watching the videos. I appreciate all the support
guys.