6 Guaranteed Value Picks to Draft at Their Floor | Fantasy Football 2025

6 Guaranteed Value Picks to Draft at Their Floor | Fantasy Football 2025

Episode Transcript

(00:00):
Yes, guys, we are. Back today looking at six
players in fantasy football for 2025.
But we're going to return on their value.
I'm almost guaranteeing it. They're being drafted at their
floors. You draft them at that price and
it can only get better from there.

(00:27):
So the first guy. We are looking at is none other
than Alvin Kamara, basically theking of this type of player
being. Drafted at the floor year after
year after year, it. Seems now for the past. 3-4
years. And just continues to produce a.
Lot of that is due to the fact that he.
Profiles as such an elite pass catching running back.

(00:51):
He always has been, and he's looking to do it again in 2020.
5 S last year. OK.
On a per game basis, he ranked first amongst running backs in
expected points and he ranked first amongst running backs in
targets per game. We look at the.
Leaders at running back for targets per game Alvin Kamara

(01:12):
averaged 6 Devon A Chan, Bree Saul, Ken Walker and.
McCaffrey averaged 5 nobody. Else in the NFL, you know.
Touched that 5. Targets per game Mark and Kamara
was the only one to average. 6 so for that.
Reason we will continue to see Kamara.
Out produce what he's supposed to do every single year because

(01:33):
he is a. Reception based PPR running
back. Those type of guys take less big
hits. In between the tackles and as
such. They're able to produce.
Right at age 282726 and this year Kamara is 29 and quite
frankly, I'm not worried. Now if he was being drafted like
RB9RB-10, yes maybe I'd be like OK, I'm out, but he's going in

(01:56):
mid range. For for RB twos.
He's going around RB 1617 in drafts.
We look at his game log guys. Rarely plays a full.
Season of games, OK, he's only done it once in his career.
He's played one. 234567. Eight seasons in the NFL, going
on to his 9th in only one of those 8.
He's played a full. Allotment of games Now it's not

(02:18):
like he's only playing 6-7 games.
I mean, I'll read you the game totals starting last year in
2024 and moving backwards 1413151315, right, you guys,
you. Guys get the gist?
So moral of the story is he's going to miss a game here or a
game there, but does it really matter?
I will now read you. The position ranks at the end of
the year where he finished amongst Arby's for fantasy.

(02:39):
Football last year. RB92023RB-11 2022 RB 16.
That's his worst finish in his career, and his current.
Draft price OK. 2021 RB 8/20/20 RB one overall.
You guys kind of get what I'm saying here.
So he's never finished lower than RB-16 in PPR and his draft

(02:59):
cost right now. Is RB-16.
Now what also is pretty interesting about Kamara is like
I said, did not play a full season of games but LED all
running backs in receiving yards.
He is the Yak King at the position, only played fourteen
games, still had the most total receiving yards not per game

(03:20):
total. He has never finished lower than
RB-16. Like I said in eight season
league being drafted there so weare going to call.
That a value. Ladies and gentlemen, OK, the
next guy on our. List here is.
Pretty interesting because he's currently going in the first
round and I'm viewing him as a value.

(03:40):
And that is none other than Malik Neighbors.
Now the number one indicator forfantasy football.
Success at the wide. Receiver position, specifically
from year to year. The one thing you can point to,
right? From last year, obviously.
Fantasy points OK, but underlying metric if you will,
this is not a very groundbreaking.
Discovery, but it is targets so.From year to year.

(04:06):
The wide receivers that get slash.
Earn the most targets. You can kind of expect that in
years to come and typically moretargets.
Lead to a higher target per route.
Run percentage which leads to fantasy.
Football success So if we look at the leaders at the.
Wide receiver position last yearin targets per game, kind of

(04:28):
similar to Alvin Kamara OK #1 here is Malik Neighbors with
11.3 targets per game. 11.3 Now for context, if you're averaging
over 9 targets per game and you play 1516 games, you are most
likely a top. 12 Wide receiver I.
Mean it's the evidence. Is historically is very.

(04:49):
Strong Neighbors is at 11 point.3 targets his rookie.
Season guys with an assortment of quarterbacks, none of whom
are as good as even late. Career Russell.
Wilson in 2025 S Malik neighbors11 targets per game.
That is more on the season than Jamar Chase, CD Lamb, Devante
Adams, Puka Nakua, Justin Jefferson.

(05:10):
Name any NFL wide. Receiver.
Malik had more targets per game than them as.
A rookie, you guys. Truly, truly insane now.
That is his floor. In my opinion, and he finished
last season as wide receiver 6 for fantasy.
That is his floor. There was no.

(05:32):
QB there so. For that reason he's going in
the back half, if not the back final.
Last final three picks of the first round I do view.
That as a floor pick, as a top six, top 8 wide receiver.
You can get him in the top 15 picks, top 10 picks, I really
think that's his floor because you start adding in touchdowns,
you start accounting for a better offense, and he is

(05:54):
undoubtedly going to be challenging every single week
and season long, assuming everyone's healthy, right for
the wide receiver, one overall spot.
So. Even in the first round I view
him as a value. Just because of that target
floor to that is the most. Targets, by the way, per game of
any rookie wide receiver in NFL history.
And a lot of people just don't talk about it too much because
the end of the season wasn't amazing for fantasy

(06:15):
specifically, Brian Thomas emerged.
Everyone's talking about Marvin Harrison, right?
So we, it kind of flew under theradar like a little bit just how
amazing Malik is. I I think in right now in
drafts. People prefer BTJ because of the
playoff recency. Bias, but I actually think that
Malik is. Safer.
And really can go get that wide receiver one overall spot season

(06:36):
long. So moving right along here,
guys. To the third guy.
On the list is Chuba. Hubbard so these.
Stats are. According to Rotoviz, Rotoviz.
Dot com is where I get all my advanced stats guys for fantasy.
Love their articles the. Best in the business to be
honest. So last year, the workload for
Tuba was truly a. Dream scenario for any fantasy

(06:56):
football running back. OK, I'll read you some stats.
I'll. Tell you where that.
Ranked amongst R BS. OK, so this is 73 total high
value touches that was. 4th amongst all.
R BS High value touches. Include touches inside the Green
Zone and receptions. The Green Zone is the 10 yard

(07:17):
line. OK 30 Green Zone touches RB 477%
of snaps played. RB 3 and 46.
Catches guys RB6 that type of. Workload is a three down
workload and will. Just pay off always.
Because of the receptions in PPR.
So I mean on per game basis he was an RB-1 and that it really

(07:39):
is the blueprint, the excuse me,the blueprint.
For elite R BS. This type of workload I mean if
you were to put. Like.
Geez, someone a little bit more talented than Shuba Hubbard.
Who isn't bad, by the way, on a per touch basis in this?
Workload would would. Really break fantasy like a
breeze. Hall in this workload last year,
for example, truly would have been an RB-1 contender.

(08:00):
Which is exactly. What I thought he would have
been, but I digress. So.
In 2025, this year, looking forward, I see Carolina's
offense just getting better. Bryce Young had a very strong
finish to last season and they brought in Rico Dowdle.
Obviously he's pretty good. But I'm not really.
Scared of Rico Dowdell? Taking the Chuba Hubbard.
Role here. That or Chuba Hubbard's job.

(08:21):
Again, 77% of snaps played last year, third most amongst all.
R BS if that drops to like 65, that's still top 12 at the
position. So sometimes we.
Overestimate how much a backups going to come in and take work,
and even if they do take some work, even if it's still in that
RB. 1 Range for total snaps played.
Percentage of snaps played. For Hubbard, we don't.

(08:41):
Have much to worry about by the way, the Panthers just signed
him to like a four year deal or something so they love him.
Canales loves him and his ADP guy says RB-19.
That workload I described is arguably a top three.
Top five. Workload at the position and
he's coming in RB 19. It's a plug and play Bell.
Cal role so. I think RB 19 in RB2 range

(09:04):
there, you're getting truly likea top 12 running back, honestly.
So we'll see how it pans out, but I'm all in there and the
next one here is going to make afew people upset and so be it.
So Kyler Murray is next on the list.
As our fourth player. His career fantasy finishes OK
since 2020, so we're looking at five years.

(09:25):
Two of those. Years he was injured so.
Either missed half the. Season due to injury on the back
half or the front half. Got injured at the end of 2022.
Missed the first half of 2020. Three right the other three
years. His fantasy finishes last year.
QB 10/20/21, QB 11 and 2020 QB 4.

(09:46):
Nothing too crazy. Right, but his ADP.
Right now in drafts is QB10QB11QB12.
Even if he just comes out and does exactly what he did last
year, which a lot of people are deeming a massive failure.
OK, he'll be QB 10 and you will have.
Equal or better value. On your draft pick of Kyler

(10:06):
Murray. At QB. 12 QB. 11 right last
year. A lot of people were.
Upset with the Kyler Murray roller coaster.
He finished as a QB one in 47% of his games, now amongst top 10
quarterbacks. That's off the.
Top of my head, not great. You know, that's second worst.
Third worst, OK, around the Sam Darnold range and Jared Goff,

(10:29):
guys like that, those were like the bottom 3 or 447%.
A lot of guys, I mean like Lamarfor example, was a QB, 1A top 12
QB, and 88% of his games I thinkit was Josh Allen was in the 70s
of percents. So yeah, 47.
Percent of the time Murray finished as a QB one.
It's not great for a top ten QB,but it is the exact same rate as

(10:49):
Jared. Goff So why?
Are we not sat here in June of 2025?
Three months before most drafts,right?
Two months before most drafts? And why are we not pissed at
Jared Goff? For hit the roller.
Coaster of a season he had. Why are we instead only upset
about Kyler Murray last year? The reason is draft cost.
Last year, Murray is. Going in the top five.

(11:10):
QBs top six, top eight we thought was a value.
OK I had him ranked as like QB 4on the year whereas Jared Goff
was closer to 20. OK, they both had a very similar
seasons, finished back-to-back in final standings.
Very similar percentile of finishes actually.
Think Murray had a lower percentage of.
QB 3 or. Worse, so just complete bust

(11:32):
games. He definitely did.
Yet we're into Jared Goff this year, you know, typically, and
we're out on Kyler Murray, so I need you to.
Adjust. Your mindset on Murray, if he
burned you last year, have the mindset of a goldfish.
I say that in every video. OK.
And you should be back in if youcan get him in the double?
Digits of Q BS. Ranked in drafts, he has an

(11:53):
elite rushing floor. The offensive weapons are great.
I think Marv's going to have a bounce back year.
It's looking good. All right, the risk is.
Baked into the A. DPAKA draft at his.
Floor Similarly, Jacoby Myers isthe fifth guy on the list.
We've talked about him a lot on the channel lately, but to
finish last season final 15 games, 9 plus targets per game.
I talked about that number a little bit before in the show.

(12:15):
Only 13 wide. Receivers last year hit. 9 plus
targets per game. Nine of those 13 finished as
wide receiver ones for fantasy. Jacoby Myers was one of them who
did not. But I really do think it was a.
QB issue you had. O'Connell, you had Minshew, you
had Ritter, you had my mailman, my Uber, each driver, personal

(12:36):
trainer like. These are the guys.
Who were throwing him the ball? Hot dog guy at the stadium so.
Yeah, we get. Geno Smith in there.
This year, who fueled? Jackson Smith and Jake.
But to a top. 12 fantasy finish last year, that was.
Purely target based. I do think Myers, I mean even
averages 10 plus targets per game this year, in which case he
plays 1415 games, he's going to finish a wide receiver one,

(12:59):
which is crazy. To say because his draft cost is
outside the top 36 wide receivers.
Absolute value. And finally guys, the last guy
on this list before we get into the mock draft.
Here, as we do every episode, I like to apply these values
right. Via mock draft.
For you see how I do it, but it's Travis Kelsey so.

(13:19):
I still think that Travis Kelseyis a cornerstone of the KC
offense. Last year weeks. 8 through 17 to
close the season. So this wasn't in the beginning.
It's not like he just had this. This fade away.
Throughout the season. Last year to close.
The Season final nine games here, 10 plus targets per game,
10 plus most amongst tight ends believe.
He was tied with McBride there at the AT.

(13:41):
The 10 mark I'm fully. Aware he's 35 years old, way
past the age Cliff. For tight ends, right?
I'm fully aware that Rashe Rice.Gets a lot of the same middle of
the field work as Travis Kelce. I'm fully aware of these things,
OK, But over the last nine seasons, guys, we look at the
game log here and I'm not just box score hunting, game log,
career log hunting, OK? But I mean, this is easily the

(14:02):
best fantasy football tight end of all time.
Not even close. Over the last, what did I say?
Nine seasons, OK, since 2016. Top five.
Tight end in 100% of them. The majority of those.
I believe 5 here 5 or 6 he was. Tight end one overall.
Now I understand we're not drafting 2017 Kelsey, but 10

(14:23):
plus targets per game from Mahomes to close the season last
year Super. Bowl lost.
I think there's plenty of motivation here on my point is I
I just don't see seven or six tight ends going off the board
ahead of Kelsey. If I'm drafting when we go
exactly in to look at who's going ahead of him, we're
looking at like Johnny Smith, we're looking at David and Joko

(14:45):
sometimes and I'm just not sold yet.
You know, Bowers, McBride, even Laporta maybe.
Sure. But if you want to wait on those
guys, not use a second on Kelsey, go ahead and draft or,
excuse me, not use a second. Yeah, not use a second on
Kelsey. Go ahead and draft him in the

(15:06):
seventh round, sixth round. I'm all in on that.
All right, so now what we're going to.
Do as we always do. We're just going to Sprint
through a mock draft here. I'm going to press start draft.
It's going to give us a random assortment here where second
overall via the random. A sorter for draft picks, so.
Looking at the roster, what we're doing is what we typically

(15:28):
do, pretty standard stuff 1QB2 running.
Back two wide receiver. One tight end 2.
Flexes all right. And again, guys.
Whether this is half PPRPPR doesn't.
Really matter that much? A lot of my rankings are pretty
similar. For the sake of.
Just being simple here, let's say we're doing half PPR as it
applies to most scoring. So we in half PPR will begin now

(15:51):
and I have Alvin Kamara typed in.
He's not going to be our second overall pick, but Justin
Jefferson is off the board. To start here so.
Typically, as you guys know, youknow Bijan is my is my 101.
This year I am going to go aheadand select Jamar though, just
because I in these mock drafts typically take Bijon.
I feel like we're always gettinglike a top six pick in these.
Hopefully we can get like a 12 or an 11 in a upcoming.

(16:13):
Video, But let's see how we do if we start with a wide
receiver. I mean, even if Chase went at
one O 1 there, I would have taken, you know, Jefferson or
Lamb just. To see how.
It pans out so we will be looking for running back here at
the 211. A lot of guys off the board.
I'm not going to read them all to you.
If you're if you're listening TuneIn on YouTube, you can see
the. Entire draft board.

(16:35):
OK, so. At the running back position,
Bucky Irving, Josh Jacobs, KyronWilliams, Chase Brown, those are
kind of our options. Here, George.
Kittle is on the board, the highest tight end left.
No thank you in the second roundof JSN.
Tyree, Kilty, Higgins, Garrett. Yeah, some good names.
But I mean, yeah, this is reallygoing to be a double RB, double
RB session here. If you will.

(16:55):
So like I said, Bucky is there. Josh Jacobs, Kyron Williams,
Chase Brown. OK.
We'll go, Bucky. His ADP is 19, get him in the
back of the 2nd and I'm just going to double up on RB.
Here as well we have. Jacobs, Kyron.
Chase Brown. Interesting Names.
Give me Josh Jacobs here so. Through the 1st 3 rounds, which

(17:17):
is about 26. Picks we have.
Jamar, Chase, Bucky, Irving and Josh.
Jacobs So basically. With that being said, if you
have a. Start like this.
There's no reason to go rush into another RB pick here, even
though it's two flex if an RB happens to present himself as a
value in drafts, which maybe some of the guys.
We talked about will appear here, sure, but at the four. 11

(17:41):
The running backs we're looking at our Marion Hampton, James
Conner, David Montgomery, Pacheco.
There's some names I. Like there, but we're.
We're good on RB for a second, now let's go.
To QB we have. Burrow, Mahomes.
Baker, I view Burrow. As just an absolute step above
Mahomes, Mayfield, Goff, Nicks, Murray.
But maybe we we. Hold out here, we wait on a
Kyler. Let's look at wide receiver

(18:01):
with. Cortland Sutton, DK Metcalf, Zay
Flowers, Devonta Smith. Lot of names who?
Yeah, a lot of names here who who kind of get jumbled
together. There are a couple I like
particularly. Sutton and Metcalf.
So we are up. Again after this pick and two
more picks, so we have. To survive two players.
Burrow is on the board. So.

(18:22):
We like one QB and we like. Two wide.
Receivers on the board. With that being said, we take
the QB and Burrow. We hope we survive.
Till our next pick we do. Hawkinson and Hampton are off
the board and now we have our choice of Sutton or Metcalf.
If I'd taken one of those guys, Burrow could have gone and we
would have been screwed. OK, so between Sutton and
Metcalf, I am going to go with Sutton.

(18:43):
Wide receiver one for the majority of last season, a top
12 guy with Knicks and. I really like.
What that offense is doing and they really kind of just plan
their whole. Attack there.
Around Sutton, I don't see. A true wide receiver.
Two contender to take any roles from him.
So all in on Sutton. He is our wide receiver, two
behind Jamar Chase and. Yeah, we have the.

(19:03):
Burrow, Chase, stack with Bucky,Irving, Josh Jacobs and Sutton
through five. I'm feeling pretty.
Happy about it. Now we are on the clock again in
the 6th, the end of the 6th and Travis Kelsey goes at six O 9.
So 2 picks before us. I was really hoping for Kelsey,
but. That is a good example.
OK of the stuff. You can do.
With Kelsey. Going in the sixth round.

(19:24):
Like George? Kittle at 4:10.
Guys, guys, George Kittle at. 410 Kelsey 2 full rounds.
Later that is called. Value and I don't even dislike.
Kittle, I just dislike the priceall right, so.
Looking at the tight ends now, Idon't see a lot that I love
Jonny Smith, Mark Andrews, Evan Ingram, David and Joku, Tyler
Warrens and an interesting pick,but we're going to wait here on

(19:48):
tight end once Kelsey's off the board.
I'm fully punting that. That's kind of just been the
vibe here. And by fully punting I mean I'll
see you in the 8th or 9th for a tight end so.
Let's take a look at the wide receivers we have.
Judy Travis, Hunter Doones, A Shakur Ridley, Jacoby Myers, who
we're probably going to to snag here at running back, Aaron

(20:10):
Jones, Tyrone Tracy Quinch on Judkins, going to go ahead and
take Judkins here as our third running back, Bucky and.
Jacobs are are established. And Judkins a bit more of a
wild. Card as a rookie.
We'll take him now. I look at wide receiver again,
just filling in the flexes. Judy, Hunter, Doomsday, Shakira,
Ridley, Iuke and Myers amongst those guys.
OK, Myers is the guy I'm lookingfor.

(20:31):
His ADP is 89. Judy all the way at the top of
the board. 68 ADP Hunter 74-O Doomsday 78 Give me Myers over
all of these guys. Over all of.
These guys in drafts look. At the type of.
Player you can draft in, I mean,geez, in the eighth round in
Myers. So he's our second flex coming
back to us in the 8th. We're going to be looking for

(20:51):
tight end now. And that's kind of what I mean
by punt. I'm not really going out of my
way. If something presents itself,
awesome. If not, no big deal.
So Evan Ingram is on the board as the leading tight end.
We have Courtland Sutton, you know, so I don't love having
like 2 receiving options on the same team.
David and Joke Who's? There.
You know, you could see like a Ninjoku and then a Warren pick

(21:12):
right after him and kind of kindof take the shot in the rookie.
Sure, maybe not a lot of value. Here.
At at a wide receiver and Etns available at running back.
So it's a no brainer for me. Etns coming home at the end of
the 8th. It's truly insane.
And for tight ends, we will takein Joku.
Just to fill the. Spot another one of those guys
to close the season right there with.

(21:33):
Kelsey who was. Averaging 9 plus targets per
game. Bowers, McBride.
Kelsey and Joku so. Who knows who's playing QB, Who
knows if in Joku will be healthy?
It doesn't really matter in the ninth round.
It's a pretty good pick. Some other tight ends I was
looking at are are flying off the board now.
So Warren is gone, Ingram is gone.
OK, Kincaid's gone, Goddard is gone.

(21:53):
Let's keep looking at the board.We do have Colston Loveland on
the board still. We'll.
We'll. Probably pick him.
I am not against the double. I'm not against the double tight
end play. A lot of people will say no.
Need to draft it. No, I think it's a great idea.
With these rookies, with. Warren and Loveland to draft a
veteran ahead of them. Think it's a very good idea.
Start the veteran, no worries. And then as they start to fade,

(22:16):
maybe the rookie gets a little better.
Sometimes works better in in theory than in practice, but.
That's what we like to do over here.
Let's look at RB and wide receiver.
I'm not very happy with RB options.
Rashad, White, Tank, Bigsby, JK,Dobbins, I'm I'm I'm probably
good there. On the other hand, these
receivers are a lot more intriguing.
Keyon, Coleman, Jane and McMillan.

(22:36):
OK, I'm Mecca Ibuka, we're all in on these guys so I'll grab
Coleman 2 picks. Left here.
We'll see. The team's looking pretty good.
I'm I'm. Very happy with how this.
Draft turned out we didn't exactly capitalize on a lot of
the guys we mentioned, but. Hope we were.
Able to touch on them. The only guy we mentioned today
and then drafted was Jacoby Myers.
We just missed out on Kelsey andwe weren't really in a position

(22:57):
to draft any of the other guys. Now our final.
Picks here. Hollywood.
Browns on the board, it's a no brainer for me.
He'll he'll be joining the team right now.
And then for running back, yeah,I'm seeing, I'm seeing a little
JK Dobbins, you know, Dobbins, Trey Benson, Ray Davis.
These are names I like later in the draft more so than a Jerome
4 to Jayden. Blue.
A Basil 2 and so let me just think about this for a second

(23:21):
yeah I'll take the shot on ray Davis considering James Cook is
not practicing right now for thebills guys so the final.
Roster very happy with this we have.
The Burrow and Chase stack At running back we have Bucky,
Irving and Josh. Jacobs, our wide.
Receiver 2 is Cortland Sutton. We have David and Joku at the
tight end spot, Quinn, Shawn Judkins and Jacoby Myers and the
flex Travis ETN on the bench, Colston Loveland on the bench,

(23:44):
hopefully taking in Joku's job on this team, Keon Coleman,
Hollywood Brown and Ray. Davis, close the draft, guys.
That's going to do. It for.
Video today. Links in the description guys to
join the discord or you can interact with me 24/7.
Ask me any questions you have. We'll talk drafts all day.
I hope you enjoyed the video guys on.