Predicting Who Will Finish RB1 Overall | Fantasy Football 2025

Predicting Who Will Finish RB1 Overall | Fantasy Football 2025

Episode Transcript

(00:00):
We are predicting who the best running back in all of fantasy
football 2025 will be when the season is said and done.
The reason it's so important to identify these contenders and

(00:20):
place our bets on who the best running back will be is because,
in my opinion, drafting that player, drafting the RB one
overall, is simply the easiest way, the fastest way to win your
leagues. If I take you back to 2023, we
had young man Christian McCaffrey with 391 total fantasy
points. Guys, that is over 100 points
more on the season than RB2 Breeze Hall who had 290.

(00:44):
Now on a per game basis, almost 2 fantasy points per game.
That is massive. Doesn't sound like a lot.
It's absolutely massive. There was no running back that
you could line up across from Christian McCaffrey and feel
confident doing so. Unbelievable.
OK, so when we look at 2025, we're going to go through these
contenders, some guys who can doit, some dark horse candidates a

(01:05):
little later on, and drafting this player and hitting on this
player is the best running back in fantasy guys.
It's going to put you at a majoradvantage.
So let's begin with our obvious RB one overall contenders, some
guys who really it's within their range, really a legitimate
ceiling to do this, and it is Christian McCaffrey, Saquon
Barkley, Bijan Robinson, and Jamir Gibbs.
I'm going to get those guys out of the way first, those four
players out of the way first because they are obvious.

(01:29):
Three of the four of those, if not all four of them are going
in the first round to even, you know, begin to dive in into that
minute detail on every single one of these guys would be a bit
of a waste of time. I will say though, there are a
couple notes that I want to discuss.
All right, so only two of the last 12 RB touch leaders have
finished top 12 amongst RBS the next season.

(01:50):
So what do I mean by that? OK, let me take you through the
running backs who led the position in touches and where
they finished the following year.
OK? So in 2012, Arian Foster 2012
OK, yes, that 2012, like over 20years ago, Arian Foster was the

(02:10):
RB touch leader. He finished RB 48 the following
season. OK, That same season he finished
RB 48. LA Shawn McCoy was the RB touch
leader and miraculously he finished RB-12 the following
season. He is only one of two players on
this list to do that. OK, DeMarco Murray, I'll just
start reading up the list the year after leading the league in

(02:31):
touches. RB-15 and here's where it starts
to get sketchy. I believe was Adrian Peterson,
RB 123, David Johnson RB112. Le'veon Bell didn't play
football. RB not applicable.
Then you had Zeke with the best finish on this list at RB3.
The year after leading in touches you had McCaffrey RB 53,
Derrick Henry RB21, Najee HarrisRB-14, Josh Jacobs RB28, and

(02:56):
then last season Christian McCaffrey.
After that great season we just talked about where he led the
position in touches. Finished RB 68.
Now the reason this is relevant is because Saquon Barkley led
the position last year in touches.
Saquon Barkley is also older than the prime output for
fantasy football, historically for running backs.
So there are a lot of risks withSaquon Barkley.

(03:18):
It's why he's not my RB-1 in this draft, a guy we're going to
talk about in a second is, And it's why he's not my one O 1,
OK? So if you want to ignore those
things like some of you did lastyear for McCaffrey, who was your
blind one O 1, OK, If you want to do those things and ignore
those things, you're just putting yourself at a
disadvantage. Do I am I saying that Barclay is

(03:38):
completely off your fantasy football draft board?
No, but what I'm saying is that like at the 101, you shouldn't
have just close your eyes and slam select Barclay, that that's
just not a winning strategy in my opinion.
OK, now again, you can off vibesalone.
Off literal vibes alone. You can choose to do that, but
I'm just telling you it is not the most wise thing to do.

(03:59):
With that being said, he is absolutely within the type of
running back here. Who's going to have that RB one
overall ceiling. Obviously every single guy in
the list I just mentioned did aswell though.
So OK, moving on real quick to note about Jamir Gibbs.
No running back has repeated as the PPRR B1 back-to-back
seasons. OK for 20 years.
For around 20 years believe was Marshall Faulk and Priest Holmes

(04:22):
in the early 2000s. Those were the last two guys to
repeat as PPRR B1. Now last year Jameer Gibbs was
the PPRR B1 on the entire seasonif you include week 18.
If you don't include week 18, weeks one through 17, it's just
another argument. Quote against Barkley as he was
the PPRRB one overall. So depends how you stack it.

(04:43):
Now for historical significance,that stat I am giving where no
RB has repeated, I am referring to the entire season, weeks one
through 18. Obviously the season wasn't
always 18 games, it was sometimes 17.
So I'm referring to every game played, the last two to do that,
Marshall Faulk, Priest Holmes some 20 years ago.
All right. Now, in terms of Christian
McCaffrey, OK, have to discuss this.

(05:06):
Why am I including an RB who's past their prime, who's past the
prime age window, as I just mentioned, for Barkley, right,
who was injured last year. Why is he on this list?
Why is he on this list? Because Christian McCaffrey is
on a list that Barkley for example, Derrick Henry for
example, other guys that are have these same trends as they
are not on Christian McCaffrey is on the list of the short list

(05:27):
of greatest PPR fantasy footballrunning backs of all time.
So with that being said, until he hangs up the cleats, until he
says I'm done, right until we see absolute signs of decline on
the field when he's playing, he will always have RB.
One overall ceiling. I'm talking guys like Ladainian
Tomlinson, Marshall Faulk, Priest Holmes, OK that is the

(05:49):
list and then Christian McCaffrey.
There are 4 running backs in contention for this.
Now I posted this a little post here on X at No Expert FF.
Just search on X at No expert FFChristian McCaffrey greatest
right? It'll come right up.
Long story short guys, he's on the short list.
And with that being said, until he is no longer playing, he will

(06:10):
be an RB one overall contender. In the last seven seasons, guys,
he has finished RB-1 or RB2, OK on the season or he has been
completely injured. It's about a 5050 split.
So that's the result you're getting.
If this man's playing 1415 games, he's going to be RB-1 or
RB2 overall, in my opinion. All right, And finally, guys, a

(06:32):
guy who we haven't mentioned yet, Bijan Robinson, right?
There's a reason he hasn't been mentioned yet and there's a
reason right now until we discuss the other guys on this
list. He is my favorite at the moment
amongst these four to finish RB one overall, that is Bichon
Robinson. OK, he is younger, less risk
than some of these guys we've mentioned.
He has less competition in the backfield.

(06:53):
I'm not a David Montgomery stand.
In fact, I'm a David Montgomery clowner.
In my opinion, I am couldn't be more anti Montgomery.
And on that note, it's very interesting.
But this time last year everyonewas telling me, oh, Jamir Gibbs
cannot finish RB one overall. Well, that's very interesting
because he did right. So where are where's the
Montgomery hive now? But I I digress.
So with Bijon prime age window, couple years of experience in

(07:14):
the NFL, improving offense, goodoffensive line, goal line,
receiving everything, not worried about Algier to finish
the season last year, really thelast month or two, Bijon was the
best running back. Barkley did it for the majority
of the season, especially in thebeginning.
But Bijon did steal the show there.
Once Penex came in he played even better.
So at the moment those are the four guys and let's talk about

(07:37):
OK, 3-4 more guys who can do it,The non obvious people here.
So the first player is Devon a Chan last year.
PPR points per game leaders Devon a Chan with Tua.
It's a very important distinguisher. 22.6 fantasy
points per game. First amongst all running backs.

(07:58):
It was that way for 11 games. OK, then you had Barkley at
22.2, so almost a half point better than Barkley there.
And then those were the only tworunning backs over 20 points.
You had Jamir Gibbs at RB 319.8,BJ Robinson 19.4, Derrick Henry
19.1 at RB5. OK, so when Tua was playing,
there was no better running backin fantasy than Devon A Chan?

(08:19):
A Chan's fantasy points per touch last season 1.07 on almost
300 opportunities in 20231.47 on140 opportunities.
Barclays points per touch last year 0.94 So .13 more fantasy
points per touch. HN had been Barkley last year
for reference. Guys, if you're over 1 fantasy

(08:41):
point per touch, you are elite. If you're over .9 you are elite.
All right. And no running back has scored
more fantasy points per touch than HN over the last two
seasons. So on a per touch basis, which
is kind of extended to a per game basis a little bit, but
really per touch and you can even take that another level and
go per snap. But per touch a chance the best

(09:02):
running back in fantasy went to is healthy.
So there's a lot of asterisks. OK, there's a lot of when this
if that, but a Chan can absolutely finish RB one
overall. Then now the next guy is Aston
Gentie and a lot of you are going to turn the video off or
pause the podcast. That's fine.
That's fine. Because you're saying to
yourself he's played zero NFL snaps.
How is this possible? The horror, The horror of Ashton

(09:26):
Gente. Yes, he can do it, OK?
He can absolutely finish RB one overall.
He can. And I put out a tweet earlier in
the season that was like, yeah, you guys are sleeping on Gente.
Ashton Gente's not a sleeper. Are you crazy?
Not what I meant. Literally not what I meant.
Ashton Gente's going to 1st. He's not a sleeper.
Not what I meant at all. What I meant is he can finish RB

(09:48):
one overall. So the same people screaming at
me literally I ruined their day because I said we're sleeping on
Genti. Those same people don't have him
as having a ceiling of RB one overall.
So again, just interesting righthow that plays out.
But anyway, their argument most likely is that he's played zero
NFL snaps. Some other running backs who had

(10:09):
played zero NFL snaps Saquon Barkley in 2018 RB one overall.
So right there, I'll stop the list of there there there are a
couple more guys. But right there your argument of
he's played zero NFL snaps is isdebunked.
I mean, that is completely invalid.
We that literally doesn't matter.
And I'm not even going to extendto like other positions, right
of Sam LaPorte, Brock Bowers, whoever.

(10:31):
I'm not going to do that becauseit's not relevant.
OK, at RB, your argument is invalid that he's never played
in the NFL because of Saquon Barkley in 2018.
And you might say, well, Gentie's competition was just
not as good. You know, Boise State, Penn
State, it's just not as good. Barkley wasn't as good as Gentie
in college. So that makes sense.
You know, Barkley was just not going head to head with Barry

(10:52):
Sanders and had a, you know, Heisman ripped from his grasps.
So anyway 0 touches when they first in their first season
Ezekiel Elliott he finished the RB2 in 2016 yet again debunking
that argument. Naji Harris in 2021 who is
amongst these 4 running backs we're talking about right now is
by far the least talented finished RB3 in 2021.

(11:14):
It was only three seasons ago. And the reason is because they
have two things in common. A monster workload 360 plus
chances which is is is insane but a guy like a Chan was
pushing 300 last year. OK.
And they have elite talent and Iknow I just just pooped on Naji
a little bit there. But yeah, he was good as a
rookie coming in. He was much better than he is

(11:35):
now. But again, just not on the same
level as a generational prospectlike the guys like Saquon Genti,
right? But Naji was a good running back
elite at the time. Not anymore.
But yes, Genti's closest comps guys in NFL history from a
production standpoint. So I'm talking just box score
here. I'm not necessarily play style,
underlying metrics, box score, Bijan Robinson, Christian

(11:59):
McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott, Darren McFadden, Donald Brown
and no, Sean Marino. So quite a wide range of fantasy
success. But for the most part, yeah,
those are the names. I mean, the two closest names
from a production standpoint areBijan and McCaffrey.
So that's what we're talking about now.
So that takes care of the talent.
As for the workload, Las Vegas has the most vacated touches of

(12:20):
any running backs, any running back backfield in the NFL, 295
available chances in that backfield from running backs who
have departed. That is 70% of their
opportunities and that is the most of any team.
So I have a hunch that Ashton Gente is going to get more than
70% of the running back opportunities.
I have a hunch if he gets 80%, he's well over 300

(12:43):
opportunities. If he gets 85%, he's pushing 350
opportunities. If he's getting 90 or 100%,
he'll absolutely be the, you know, a top three RB,
absolutely. Over the course of the season.
Is it going to be that much because he'll probably ramp up
to start in two 2-3 games? Maybe not.
But mid season, I'd be surprisedif he's below 85% of RB

(13:06):
opportunities per game, which isagain, on the year, putting him
well over 300 opportunities. He's the best college running
back of all time, potentially next to Barry Sanders, right?
Obviously got to pay homage to the Goats here.
You know, one or two. He's on a team now with run
heavy coaches, a solid offense. I'm tired of hearing the Raiders
offense not getting respect. Geno Smith is good.

(13:27):
Brock Bowers is very good. Jacoby Myers is good.
They have good rookie wide receivers.
They have good veteran wide receivers and they have a coach
who can score points. And now they have Ashton Genti
and they play in a division thatscores points.
The Chargers, the Broncos, the Chiefs a little less the past
couple years. But yeah, we're all over Genti.
We're all over him and I, you can either, by the way, you can

(13:48):
be in one camp, I'm going back to this.
You can be in the camp that Gente is a star with RB, one
overall ceiling, or you can be in the camp that he's being
overlooked. I am in the first camp.
And if you are in the second camp, I forgot what I'm saying,
but yeah, moral of the story is guys, RB, one overall ceiling.
All right, Next guy who I think can do it, I think he can do it.

(14:12):
And this one took a bit of convincing because honestly, not
my favorite fantasy player to draft.
Yeah, not my favorite player to draft just because I I think
he's a little inconsistent. I don't like the off the field
attitude stuff. It like just bothers me and
makes me worried for my team. Just causes me some stress and I
never seem to get him right. I always draft him the wrong

(14:33):
years. But yeah, it's Josh Jacobs last
year weeks 5 through 15. So take the first month of the
season out because he was adjusting to the new team
potentially whatever it was. But yeah, only Saquon Barkley
was better. 21 points per game for Barkley and Jacobs. 20.7
weeks, 5 through 15. I mean, that is like the

(14:54):
majority of the season. He pushed for 350 touches in his
first season in Green Bay. Honestly, I plan for that to be
at least 300 this year. They're probably going to deploy
him the exact same way. They made no major RB depth
chart changes. And the offense is very good.
All right, so Josh Jacobs can absolutely do it, you guys.
Absolutely. Before we get to the dark horse

(15:14):
candidates, there is one more name that I want to talk about
who can definitely do it as well, and that is Jonathan
Taylor. His fantasy points per game rank
in the last five seasons, RB7RB12RB18RB2 and RB-10.
So he has been a top 12 running back in fantasy points per game
four of the last five seasons. That is a true RB one on a per

(15:36):
touch basis, true RB one. I mean, he is the CEO of per
touch. He's like the per touch king
here. All right, other than a Chan,
but he's only played a full season one time and when he
finished in that full season, you can imagine where he
finished amongst running backs and I'll reveal that to you in a
second. But last year, playoff league

(15:57):
winner a week 16 through 18. As I mentioned, he was basically
the best running back in fantasy40 points in week 16, just a
casual 40, then 27.6, then 25 inweek 18.
So in his most recent 12 games played, he's been a top 12
running back in 50% of them, andthat's kind of excluding the

(16:17):
injured game. So in 50% of his most recent 12
games, he has been a top 12 RB in 20%, right?
He's been injured of them or he's been injured.
Now, obviously, how can he be injured in his twelve games
played in that span? So in the span that it's taken
him to play 12 games, he's injured in 20% of the that span.
And then in those 12 games, he was a top 12 RB and six of them.

(16:41):
So RB-1 overalls, they've historically floated around 60%
mark for RB-1 output. And if he was in a top 12 RB in
50% of the games and say he say we applied that probability to
the injured games, he's pushing that 60% mark.
So he simply needs to stay healthy.
And the only time, as I said before, that J TS played 16 plus

(17:02):
games, you already know where hefinished 2021 RB one overall.
So here's what I'm kind of talking about.
Maybe it's a bit more easier to understand visually for those of
you guys listening, sorry, but on YouTube, just search no
expert FF on YouTube. So he had 12 active games
between week 3/20/24 to week 18/20/24.

(17:22):
So it's basically the last season starting at week 3.
In that span, he had 12 games that were active.
He missed weeks 567 and 14. So there's your inactive and 20%
of them and yeah, there's your RB, 150% of those games.
It was kind of the beginning of the season, then the end.
So again he plays 16 plus he cando it.
Now let's discuss 3 dark horse candidates I think can do it and

(17:43):
a bonus 4th one who I don't havewritten down, but I I do believe
Ken. Now the first dark horse RB.
One overall candidate is Ken Walker.
He was the RB2IN all of fantasy last year behind Henry to start
the season. First two months of the season,
weeks one through 7, he was RB2.He is injured all the time.

(18:03):
So if he were to stay healthy, keep that pace up, he can
absolutely do it. A true dollar course here and
again emphasizing that these outcomes are unlikely, but just
giving you some names here, QuinShawn Judkins.
If he sees 300 plus opportunities and that offense
for the Browns is anywhere near middle of the pack and not like
bottom 3, Judkins can absolutelydo it.

(18:23):
He is. He is talented enough to do it.
He could be pushing for a first round draft status next year.
Really just depends how much work they give him and how good
the offense is. Next guy, second to last guy is
Travis Etienne. Sorry not sorry.
If he sees 300 plus Liam Cohen opportunities in that new
offense, OK, he's going to be pushing for RB.
One overall. He was a 2023 RB.

(18:44):
Two overall behind only McCaffrey.
I mentioned at the beginning of video Priest Hall on that one to
18 week scale was RB two weeks, one through 17, it was Travis
Etienne behind McCaffrey. If he gets the Bucky Irving
looks that Liam Cohen in practice right now is saying
he's going to get those touches in space.
The lead workload that Liam Cohen is saying he's going to

(19:05):
get, he can absolutely finish top three RB and has that wider,
excuse me, RB-1 ceiling. And finally, guys, a bonus name
real quick, a bonus name is going to be Chase Brown.
So for those of you watching on YouTube, nothing left to look at
on the screen besides this high def picture of Ken Walker.
He's a unit, but it is Chase Brown.
Absolutely. I think the Bengals offense is

(19:28):
going to be the best offense in the league this year.
I don't know who's coming close.Obviously the Lions are always a
contender, but with Ben Johnson gone, I think they regress a
little bit. I think the Bengals, Joe Burrow
MVP candidate, Higgins healthy, Chase healthy, everyone paid,
and if Chase Brown is the lead running back gets like that Joe

(19:50):
Mixon workload for the Browns. Excuse me, for the Bengals, he
can absolutely be absolutely be the RB one overall, if you see
in 2223 opportunities per game. Real quick, guys, head over to
Joe or ricoff.com or no expert fantasyfootball.com.
They take you to the same place.That's where I began to post all
of my articles, all of my threads, all my advanced

(20:12):
analysis is here, guys. Simply great stuff happening
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(20:33):
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