Predicting Who Will Finish WR1 Overall | Fantasy Football 2025

Predicting Who Will Finish WR1 Overall | Fantasy Football 2025

Episode Transcript

(00:00):
Guys, one of the best ways to win your fantasy Football League
is drafting the wide receiver one.
Overall, when it's all said and done, what we're here to do

(00:20):
today is predict some players and try to find some players,
some wide receivers who could goahead and outscore those guys
and take the crown of the wide receiver one overall.
There has been a new wide receiver one overall every year
since 2017. So for those of you saying
Chase, Jefferson, Lamb, it's only one of them, maybe, but

(00:42):
also maybe not because like I said, since 2017, that name has
changed. Over the last three years, it
has been 1 of Jamar, Chase, one of Justin Jefferson, one of CD
Lamb. OK, Obviously last year we saw
Jamar put up one of the greatestfantasy football wide receiver
seasons of all time. But let's hop into our first
candidate, guys. We're going to start with four

(01:04):
or five guys who are like legitimate, right?
We'll be going week to week headto head with these three.
And then we're going to get intosome dark horses.
We're going to have a little fun.
So the first legitimate contender here who I think right
off the bat beginning in week one will be competing with Chase
Jefferson Lamb is Nico Collins. Weeks one through 4 last season,

(01:26):
guys, those were his only healthy games, four games.
And then in the 5th game, by theway, only played like 20% of
snaps, 2 targets, 2 catches, touchdown.
Still had a monster game, but hedid get injured and was out for
a very long time. But weeks one through 4, he was
fully, fully healthy. Even when he came back later in
the season, guys, it's came out now that he's playing through

(01:48):
some things and it was a little rushed back.
So when healthy, 22.7 fantasy points per game, Wide receiver
two overall. If we look at the leaderboard
for fantasy points here, weeks one through 5, I'm including the
injured game he had, like I said, wide receiver two overall.
Only Jamar Chase was better. Chase was averaging 21.7 fantasy
points. Nico Collins had 21.3 through

(02:11):
the 1st 5 weeks of 2024. And those were the only two wide
receivers who had over 100 totalpoints at that point.
So when Nico's healthy, firing on all cylinders with CJ Stroud,
he already is competing with Chase or whoever the wide
receiver one is, if not him for that crown ranks among wide

(02:32):
receivers guys at that .489 receiving yards.
That was most 29.3% target share.
That's insane. Fifth most, 486 area yards,
second most, 6.1 EPA per game, third most.
And again, those are among wide receivers weeks one through 4
last season. So he was on pace for over 2000
yards in the regular season, putting together a monster real

(02:53):
life NFL season, which obviouslytranslates to fantasy.
The offense this year for the Texans is going to be passed
first. No more of this 30 touch Joe
Mixon nonsense, all right? CJ Stroud is going to be allowed
to unload that thing this year and Nico Collins is going to
benefit tremendously, especiallywith the likes of Diggs.
Who say what you want washed, not washed was soaking up a lot

(03:14):
of targets last season. All right, so Nico Collins is
the first guy who really is a contender for wide receiver one
overall. Similarly, a young man by the
name of Malik Neighbors in his second season is also a
legitimate contender for wide receiver one overall.
A lot of people don't realize just how good he was his rookie
year. Like we hear about it.
He was doing awesome things, butunless you owned him in fantasy,

(03:37):
and honestly even if you did just because the QB play was so
bad, even if you owned him, you just don't really know how
impressive this rookie season was because a lot of things
overshadowed it. Jamar whatever OK, but Malik
Neighbors full season LED every single wide receiver in targets
per game. 11 targets per game. Only wide receiver to hit that

(04:00):
mark. Jamar, CD, Devante, and Puka all
tied for second with 10 targets per game.
So to come into the league and lead these guys, these elite
veterans, elite monster wide receivers, to lead all of them
have the most targets per game as a rookie, speak so much
volumes. And obviously, sure, I could put

(04:21):
on a Giant's uniform, go to MetLife and have Russell Wilson
throw 13 balls at me every game.Sure, I'm catching zero of them.
But it's actually not the case, OK?
Because on an NFL field, targetsare earned.
Targets are absolutely an earnedstat.
It's a very sticky stat. Year to year.
We're a stat like touchdowns, for example, right?
Have a little bit more volatility.

(04:42):
Guy goes out and scores 20 touchdowns last year.
A lot of times we say that's going to come back down, OK.
With targets, we're like, I don't know if this is going to
come back down. And a lot of times it it
doesn't. OK, Now his ranks among wide
receivers as you know, 1st and targets, OK.
But last year, his rookie season, seventh in receiving

(05:03):
yards, third in receptions, 6th in air yards, guys.
And he had absolutely no quarterback.
He was the wide receiver of 1 and expected points per game and
wide receiver six overall. So what that means is the type
of plays, the type of targets, type of volume, type of chances
he was getting. He was expected to be the best
wide receiver in fantasy, but hefinished wide receiver 6.

(05:25):
And in my opinion, it's because there was no QB.
Daniel Jones who only threw to Wandale Robinson, right?
33 area yards per pass Tommy DeVito, who?
No comment. OK, if you are the wide receiver
one in expected points per game,really the only reason is you're
not wide receiver one is becauseyou have no QB.
The offense is terrible. Both those things were true.
If he had, Joe Burrow probably would have had a better season

(05:47):
than Jamar or similar. It's kind of what I'm trying to
say. So I really think that, I mean,
it couldn't have been worse in terms of the situation he was in
and he finished wide receiver 6.So I kind of view his floor as a
top five, top six wide receiver,which is so, so high, So high.
That's like the same floor as CDLamb.
I mean, we kind of saw his floorseason last year and he was

(06:07):
still top 12 guy put that into perspective.
So this is a player in Malik Neighbors who not only could be
the best wide receiver this year, could be the best player
in fantasy this year if it all works out somehow with the QB
and next year could even be I mean the ceiling, right?
There is an outcome where he is the undisputed 101 next year in
2026. That is an outcome.

(06:28):
That's all I'm saying. I'm not saying it's likely.
I'm saying it's an outcome. All right, The next legit
contender is Brian Thomas juniorin the fantasy playoffs last
year, 28.2 fantasy points per game.
Did you hear what I just said? 28 point 228.2 that is the most
among all non quarterbacks and Mack Jones was throwing him the

(06:48):
ball. So now we have an upgraded
offensive scheme with Liam Cohen, who by the way churns out
elite wide receiver production for fantasy football.
Think Mike Evans, think Jalen McMillan McMillan, think Chris
Godwin, think Kate Otten. OK, all we need is Trevor
Lawrence back, which now he's back to be as good as Baker
Mayfield, which I believe he's better.

(07:09):
OK, as I said, Liam Cohen's the new OC Trevor Lawrence is
healthy. He has a very high target floor.
Brian Thomas, junior, he has a monster play ceiling.
He is truly a stud wide receiver.
One I want to look at the game log here in the fantasy
playoffs, a lot of times after the bye week, we see rookies

(07:30):
really take off. And we saw that last year with
Brian Thomas. So their bye week was in week 12
and then weeks 13 through 18, all of the magic happened.
Let me read you the fantasy scores here.
So in week 1318.7, then 16.6, then in week 15, first week of
the play offs 32.5, then 28.2, then 23.9, and then even in week

(07:52):
week 18, few absolute sickos whoplay week 18 fantasy 17.3 kept
it rolling for you. So yeah, Brian Thomas junior.
I only see the situation gettingbetter for him.
Travis Hunter when he's on the field is most likely going to
draw some defensive attention, so it'll be harder to double
team Brian Thomas junior. This is a great thing for
Lawrence. It's a great thing for the run

(08:13):
game. It's pretty awesome for the
Jaguars and Brian Thomas junior as a contender for wide receiver
one overall. Now let's get into two dark
courses here and then I'm going to go even deeper and say these
guys who are kind of going like the 3rd, 4th, even a bit later,
middle round guys who have this ceiling, The first dark course
here to finish as the best wide receiver in fantasy this year,

(08:34):
unlikely but could happen, is Rashe Rice.
The last nine games we've seen him play, so that's the
beginning of 2024 and the end ofhis rookie season.
The last nine times he's been onthe football field, like in a
row, he's produced high end widereceiver 1 numbers, OK in those
games, in those last 9 games that he's played, he's been a
wide receiver one top 12 in 44% of them.

(08:56):
That's fantastic. He's been a wide receiver 2 in
44% of them. So 88% of the time he's top 24.
That's a very good floor. Like we're talking about Malik
Neighbors as a top six, top 8 wide receiver floor.
Typically when we're like, Oh yeah, this guy's going to be top
2488% of the time. That's awesome.
So just to put into perspective how amazing Neighbors is as as a

(09:18):
hopeful this year for the type of output he's going to give us
for fantasy, but I digress. Back to Rice.
OK. The last nine games he's played,
he has produced as a wide receiver one.
Last year to start the season, he was literally wide receiver
2. And I think that in 2025, the
challenge for this wide receiverone overall crown, some things

(09:39):
need to happen. They are he needs to steal
targets over the middle from Kelsey.
Kelsey to close last season for about a month, two months, there
was averaging 10 targets per game.
There's no way Kelsey's averaging 10 targets per game.
And Rashi is, you know, challenging for wide receiver
one overall. He needs to continue his role as
the clear Kansas City wide receiver one that is up in the
air. I'm a very big Hollywood Brown

(10:00):
fan. Very big.
All right, and Kelsey also factors into that those those
two those two conditions are pretty similar, but it really
was more of a Marquis Brown shout out.
I'm a very big fan, very, very big fan.
And the chiefs simply need to score more points.
Now this one I think is going tohappen.
Patrick Mahomes has been pretty vocal about how he wants to
start airing the ball out more like he used to to Tyree kill.

(10:22):
He's not a fan of the slow play and and things like that.
And honestly, when you're winning as many games as they
are and they have done in the past few years, it's it makes
sense for them to not, you know,be chucking the ball around when
it it comes so easy through on the ground or these little plays
and wasting time. And the defense is good.
But Mahomes has made it known that he wants those big plays to

(10:43):
come back and he wants the scheme to reflect that.
I think that's going to happen. So nonetheless, I'm interested
to see how the Chiefs offense plays out.
But it'd be hard to ignore RasheRice as a as a dark horse
contender here for wide receiverone overall and last year before
injury, 21.6 fantasy points per game.
That was wide receiver 2. I know that was only two games,
but still pretty cool. All right, now here's one that I

(11:05):
mean, this is a pretty I mean, this is a pretty interesting
take here that a lot of people are disagreeing with the I mean,
this is a polarizing player, which is interesting to me.
And that is Tyree kill as a darkhorse for wide receiver one
overall. That's pretty interesting that I
even have to say like that. He could do it, guys.
He can do it, OK? He's played three years on the

(11:28):
Dolphins. 2022 he was the wide receiver two overall, 2023 he
was the wide receiver two overall, and then last year he
was the wide receiver 18 overall.
Why is that? I'll give you a hint.
I don't think it's because he's 31.
I don't think. What I think is he literally had

(11:48):
a torn wrist ligament for all 17games and he had six games while
his wrist ligament was torn six of those games of the 17 his QB
wasn't playing and he's still finished wide receiver 18.
If anything, that to me tells methat he is not watched.

(12:10):
What's more, Jonnu Smith has just been traded to the
Steelers. He was a monster last season,
OK, stole targets from Hill. So it's pretty insane that in
the big 2025 I have to come out here and and get roasted because
I think Tyree Kill could finish Wide receiver one overall.
I don't think that's a crazy statement.
I mean, if we look at the careerlog, we look at the player card,

(12:31):
right? And just do a little box score
hunting here, guys, look at thiscareer log.
I mean, look at this career. So last year, as I mentioned,
wide receiver 18, wide receiver 2.
The year before that, the year before that, wide receiver 2
again. Then in 2021, his final year
with KC, wide receiver 6 2020 wide receiver 2/20/19 injured
their only 12 games Wide receiver 31 2018 wide receiver

(12:53):
one overall 2017 wide receiver 8.
Like I get he's 31, but he's notchanging teams.
A lot of times when that 31 bellhits and they fall off the age
Cliff, these wide receivers, they're changing teams like a
Julio Jones, like maybe a Devante Adams kind of sometimes
maybe this year Cooper Cup this year potentially, right?
We we see this happen and that is a trend.

(13:14):
I mean, the only guy who it's worked with changing teams was
like a Brandon Marshall when he went to The Jets and was crazy
all those years back. So this is not controversial
here. I think Tyree Kill can
absolutely finish wide receiver one.
Overall, I don't think he's washed.
His legs still work perfectly fine.
He is the streak route king and a lot of people are like, oh a
nice streak route. Like anyone can go do that.

(13:35):
Like oh nice, you're saying he'snot washed because he ran a
streak route. Well, why don't they just go do
it then? Why doesn't every wide receiver
just run straight down the fields, catch an easy ball and
take it to the house? Riddle me that Now there are
some other guys obviously who wouldn't name who are more
obvious than these dark horse contenders.
They are a Monroe St. Brown, Drake, London puka Nakua

(13:58):
top 15, top 20, sometimes even top 10 picks, top 8 picks right.
These guys are monsters. Obviously they have wide
receiver one overall ceiling. If they didn't they want to be
going where they are in drafts. It wasn't really worth
mentioning them. I I think that the other guys I
mentioned like of that capital, you know, before the dark
horses, the Brian Thomas Malik neighbors, Nico Collins, I think
they have a bit of a better chance.

(14:19):
So I kind of honed in on them. I skipped over the Saint Brown
London Nakua guys and I, I talked about some dark horses.
But now we're going to some sleeper candidates.
And I'm not saying this is a sleeper pick.
I got crushed because I said, oh, we're, we're sleeping on
Ashton Genti the other day. I don't mean he's a sleeper.
I just mean that you're sleepingon the fact that he could finish
RB one overall. And similarly, some people are

(14:41):
sleeping on the fact that these wide receivers, Marvin Harrison,
Garrett Wilson, and T Higgins can finish wide receiver one
overall. I really believe they can if the
QB issues are fixed here with Kyler Murray and Marvin
Harrison, if they get on the same page, absolutely.
Marvin Harrison is talented enough to finish wide receiver

(15:02):
one overall. Garrett Wilson, I mean, he's
going to see, I, I am projectinghim to see 10 plus targets per
game. Wide receivers who see 9 plus
targets per game, very high percentage of them finished top
12. I think Garrett's going to have
an extra 110 plus targets per game.
If Fields can just be, you know,be delivering that volume like
that. Garrett Wilson's the only wide

(15:22):
receiver on the roster for all I'm concerned with, and he could
absolutely do it. Similar to Marvin.
Very, very talented guy. And then T Higgins to close last
season, only Jamar Chase's teammate was better.
A few of those passes bombs downthe field from Joe Burrow go to
Higgins and not Chase. I mean, we're looking at T
Higgins wide receiver one overall.
That could absolutely happen. You know, God forbid Chase goes

(15:43):
out to an injury. I mean, T Higgins really has
wide receiver one overall in hisrange of outcomes.
And he might be the cheapest wide receiver in the draft where
I'm like, no, he could really doit.
So those are three sleeper candidates guys.
All in all though, I mean, therereally are like 10 plus wide
receivers this year with wide receiver one overall ceiling.
That's a good amount. And I try to have at least one

(16:04):
of them on my team and every single team that I draft, I try
to have at least one wide receiver where I think they can
go do it right. They can go be the best wide
receiver in fantasy. And it's not that hard to do.
When you look at the running backs, We have another video on
the channel, right, predicting RB one overall.
Go check it out. I'll just give you a hint, there
are not ten plus running backs who can go be RB one overall and
that's why I tend to lean RB earlier in my drafts.

(16:25):
And we'll save that for another video where we discuss draft
strategy. Guys, all my videos, all of my
articles, all my content is available at no expert
fantasyfootball.com on X on Twitter at no expert FF.
Or you can type in joeorricoff.com, that's ORRICO
Joe or ricoff.com or at Joe or Rico FF on X OK, that's enough

(16:50):
adios.