Bears @ Eagles week 13 NFL breakdown

NMP - betters breaks down nfl week 13 bears @ eagles

Episode Transcript

(00:29):
None. None.

(01:03):
What's going on? Not Move Nation, Welcome to the
Not Move podcast. Today is November 28th at 10:10
AM Eastern Time. We have one football game on
today, the Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles.
First, I'd like to say thank youto our subscribers, supporters,

(01:26):
followers. We really appreciate you guys.
Also a special thank you to our sponsors.
Bet US mybookie.agwalmart.com open goal, the MLB and NFL Pro
shops and W energy drinks. All right, so I hope everybody
had a great day yesterday. It's nice that we have football

(01:49):
on a Friday today have the Chicago Bears at Philadelphia
Eagles. I wasn't able to do my normal
thorough research on this game, but we'll still have some some
good information here. Chicago leads the all time
series, 2917 and one against Philadelphia.

(02:11):
But Philadelphia has won six games in a row against Chicago.
Last that I checked, Philadelphia is favored by 7 in
the over unders 44 1/2. Philadelphia in the games in the
17 games that they have won against Chicago.

(02:32):
Eight of those games they won by7 plus points.
So more times than not in games throughout history,
Philadelphia's beat Chicago and they've won by a margin of
victory of six points or less. Three of the last 10 meetings
between these teams have had a combined total of 45 plus

(02:53):
points. So more times than not in the
last 10 meetings, it's gone under this 4044 1/2 total.
Now Chicago and Philadelphia areboth seven and four against the
spread this season. Now in regards to the over
under, Chicago is better to the over than Philly is.

(03:19):
Chicago's 6, four and one to theover.
Philadelphia's five and six to the over.
Chicago's hot right now, man. They've won four games in a row.
They they just beat Pittsburgh last week and Philadelphia, you
know, dropped that game to Dallas in that game that they
were up 21 to 0 in. So it'll be interesting to see
how Philadelphia bounces back inthis game today here overall,

(03:44):
give Chicago a pretty good passing advantage, good sized
passing advantage, slight rushing advantage, big third
down conversion advantage, a slight red zone attempts per
game advantage, slight sacks on the quarterback advantage, a big
turnover differential advantage.The only true advantage I give
Philadelphia and it's a big advantage is the red zone

(04:09):
conversion advantage that, you know, they may have other
advantages maybe in the in the kick return game or something
like that. I think Philadelphia's been
pretty decent at like blocking field goals this season.
Just didn't have time to look upthe the special teams
information. But you know that that may be

(04:31):
what this game comes down to. But let's go over some player
props. Let's start with.
Hey, good morning. Good morning, Blessed up P.
Yeah, I really did. Man, I hope you did as well.
Thank you so much. Yesterday was crazy in the NFL.

(04:51):
Yeah, it was, man. I think I was.
I think I didn't get any money line.
Picks correct yesterday, but. Two of the.
Spreads that I predicted happened.
It was the Cowboys plus the 3 1/2 and then the Bengals +7.
But yeah, money line yesterday over three, I thought Baltimore

(05:13):
was going to win Detroit and Kansas City.
So here we are again today, man.So I want to talk about the
rushing advantage. I want to talk about the rushing
attack first and foremost for a couple of reasons in this in
this matchups here today. One of the reasons is because

(05:37):
I'm seeing that winds, I'm looking at rotogrinders.com,
rotogrinders.com/weather slash NFL and what they're reporting
on here is that there should be 15 mile per hour sustained winds
at. Kickoff.
And then it should be dropping to around 10 mile per hour

(06:00):
sustained winds later in the game.
But gusts, wind gusts throughoutthe game should be between 25
and 30 mph. So you know that that could
definitely have a little bit of.Impact on some some deeper
throws and some longer kicks, but not just that.

(06:24):
But both of these teams, really.Do like to focus on running the
ball in regards to their play calling style.
Chicago ranks 23rd in passing play percentage, so they call a
higher percentage of rushing plays than league average.
Philadelphia calls the. Third highest percentage of

(06:46):
rushing plays in the NFL. They ranked 30th in passing play
percentage. So both of these teams focused
on the run a lot more in regardsto that play calling style.
And but you know, just because the team's focus on the run

(07:06):
doesn't necessarily mean that they're not good at passing.
Now, Philadelphia hasn't accumulated a ton of passing
yards per game this year. They ranked 20. 3rd But the
Bears, you know, they're pickingup some quality yardage through
the air per game. They ranked 12th in passing
yards per game. But yeah, let's talk about this

(07:29):
rushing attack first and foremost.
Excuse me, yes, it's windy and cold in NYC, so Philly should
have similar weather, says Blessed up P.
Right on, man. OK, so Chicago ranked second in
rushing yards per game this season.

(07:51):
Philadelphia ranks 18th and rushing yards allowed per game.
So Chicago's been really good atpicking up yards per game on the
ground this season, and Philadelphia's below average at
limiting teams from picking up rushing yards per game.
Philadelphia is actually worse at preventing the passing yards

(08:12):
allowed per game. They ranked 22nd in that
category. So in regards to, you know,
yardage allowed, relative to other teams in the league,
Philadelphia is stronger at defending against the run.
Something that I noticed that Philadelphia ranks before the

(08:35):
week started, they ranked 9th worst in rushing yards allowed
to quarterbacks. So that had me looking at Caleb.
Williams a little bit for his rushing yards.
He's gone over the 20 1/2 rushing yard line and seven out
of 11 games this season. He's had 10 plus rushing yards
and 9 out of 11 games this season.
He's never played against Philadelphia throughout his

(08:58):
short career, and he's averaged more yards per carry at home
than on the road in both seasonsthat he's been in the NFL.
Which is a. Bad trend, you know, since he's
playing on the road today and then he's had more yards per
carry in games that his team lost than wins or loses in both
career seasons. Now, two seasons, that's a small

(09:20):
sample size, but it is somethingand you know, if you think.
That Chicago's going to lose this game today.
I think that there is a better chance for Caleb Williams to go
over those rushing the 20 1/2 rushing yards based on this
trend. But you know, I don't like the.

(09:42):
Fact that he's averaged. More yards per carry at home
than on the road in both seasonsthat he's been in the NFL.
So, you know, if the Bears end up winning this game, I don't
think Caleb Williams goes over that.
If they lose, I think he does goover that overall.

(10:03):
We'll we'll talk about the prediction I have here in a
minute. Let's see here, DeAndre Swift.
Now Philadelphia, they were not specifically great or terrible
at defending rushing yards to that running back position this
season. Somewhere in the middle of the
pack. So Swift, DeAndre Swift, running

(10:24):
back for the Bears. He's gone over the 39 1/2
rushing yard total in seven out of 10 games this season.
He's had 30 plus rushing yards and 9 out of 10.
Games this season. And his two career games against
Philadelphia, he had 144 rushingyards and 27 rushing yards.

(10:44):
So he's gone over that line in one out of two career games
against Philadelphia. And then he has also scored a
touchdown in one out of two career games against
Philadelphia. So, you know, if you're thinking
about DeAndre Swift today, I mean, I think I think that's
those are pretty solid numbers. I would feel a little bit more

(11:05):
comfortable at 25 plus rushing yards and then, you know,
because he he's had 30 plus rushing yards in nine out of 10
games this season. That's good 90%.
And then, you know, he had 144 in one game against Philadelphia
and then 27 in the other. So we took it down to 25 plus.

(11:26):
That's, you know, two out of twocareer games against
Philadelphia. And then I didn't see any any
convincing splits. Now this, this field for my
understanding is on a hybrid surface.
So they use grass and turf. So I didn't look into the turf
versus grass splits for this. Game on how players perform you

(11:48):
know with on turf versus grass, but you know every other trend
that I saw was Swift was inconsistent you know his home
versus Rd. splits and his. Other splits, OK, so I think
that looks pretty solid there. And then Menung guy, I believe

(12:10):
this is his first, his first season in the NFL, if I'm not
mistaken. Yeah, he's a rookie.
So over under 35 1/2 rushing yards.
He's only gone over that in three out of 11 games this
season, but he's had 20 plus rushing yards in seven out of 11
games this season. It's much tougher for me to.

(12:32):
Target rookie player props because I don't have a lot of
information to work with but. You know, he has barely averaged
more yards per carry on the roadthan at home this season, which
is a good trend if you're likinghim and then he's.
Averaged more yards per carry when his team wins or ties

(12:54):
rather than. Loses this season he actually
has. 4 rushing touchdowns when his team wins versus 0 when his
team loses and then that's all Igot about for him.
So you know, I don't I don't really have a strong opinion
about Mononga. I think he's pretty decent.

(13:16):
He's been good this season, but I'm going to have to learn more
towards Swift going over his rushing yards 39 1/2.
Once again, I'd feel more comfortable at 25 + 30 plus.
I think it is manageable as well.
And then let's see, I like JalenHurts has blessed up here.

(13:40):
I like Jalen Hurts for passing yards over 200 and I'm liking
his rushing yards since it's windy today.
Yeah, let's talk about that rushing attack here for
Philadelphia. So Chicago ranks 28th in rushing
yards allowed per game and they rank 21st in passing yards
allowed per game. So they are weaker against the

(14:03):
rush than the past relative to other teams in the league in
regards to yards allowed per game.
And Philadelphia ranks 21st in rushing yards per game, 23rd and
passing yards per game. So they're better at running the
ball relative to the other teamsin the league in yards picked up

(14:24):
per game. And Chicago, before the week
started, allowed the fifth most rushing yards to quarterbacks
and the eighth most rushing yards to running.
Backs. They also allowed the third most
rushing yards per attempt out ofany team in the league.

(14:45):
So let's start with Jalen Hurts 32 1/2 rushing yards.
He's gone over that line and only four out of 11 games this
season. He's had 20 plus rushing yards
and seven out of 11 games this season.
He's played one career game against the Bears and had 61
rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns.

(15:07):
He's had more rushing yards per attempt in games that his team
loses rather than wins. Or ties in five out of six
career seasons. So I do think that there is a
stronger likelihood that Jalen Hurts goes over this line if his
if the Eagles lose today based on that trend.

(15:31):
But you know the anytime touchdown, you know he had three
in his only career game against Chicago.
And I want to. Go look real quick Hertz versus
Bears. I want to go look real quick to
see if the Eagles. Won that game yeah, they won by

(15:52):
exactly 5 points and that's kindof where I'm.
Leaning towards today as well. Philadelphia winning by exactly,
exactly 5 points, but. And yeah, how many yards did he
picked up? I mean, he picked up 60.
One, rushing yards in that game.Also, let's go look at real

(16:14):
quick how many touchdowns the Bears have allowed to
quarterbacks this season relative to other teams in the
league. They've allowed three.
The most that any team has allowed is the Cowboys with six.
So the Bears. Have.
Their defense has allowed some rushing touchdowns to

(16:35):
quarterbacks today and this is probably going to be my favorite
touchdown scorer for Philadelphia today.
I think he could possibly get multiple ones with that history
that he has and I know that he'scapable of.
You know, picking. Up multiple touchdowns in a
game. I mean this.
Season. He's had two already.

(16:56):
One last week against Dallas andthen, believe it or not, one,
one time in week one against Dallas.
So we'll, we'll, we'll go. Back and talk about his passing
yards here in just a second, butI want to talk about.
Saquon Barclays rushing yards real quick.
Let's see what blessed up PS to say here.

(17:17):
Four out of. Five last quarterbacks hit their
rushing yard lines, except for Tyler Huntley, who fell short by
4 yards to cover his 25 1/2. Flacco had 47 rushing yards
against against the Bears. That's that's great information.

(17:38):
Hertz and Celeb for a touchdown is a great look.
I feel I'll be locking that in. Right on, man.
Yeah, I'm thinking Hertz finds his way in the end zone today.
And here's here's really anotherreason.
Why? Is because Barkley.

(18:04):
Where? Just a second.
Barkley has never scored a touchdown in five career games
against Chicago. And you know, I mentioned that
Philadelphia really likes to runthe ball.
They're run focused. And if Barclay doesn't score the
touchdown in the running game, you know, kind of leaves Hertz

(18:25):
open. Maybe a backup running back or
something for for Philly. Who do they got back there as
their backup? It's a pretty solid backup if
I'm not if I'm not mistaken, I didn't look into his his career

(18:47):
history or anything against OK, let's see Bigsby Shipley.
I didn't look at their historiesagainst Chicago, but you know
if. If Barclay doesn't get in, I'm
thinking. Hertz, you know, is going to
have to be that guy. So let's talk about Barclays
rushing yards. You know, he's gone over the 79

(19:07):
1/2 rushing yard line and only three out of 11 games this
season. And even if you wanted to take
that that down to 70 plus rushing yards, he still has only
gone over that in three out of 11.
Games this season. But once you get it to 60,
you're looking at 5 out of 1150 plus rushing yards for Barkley 6
out of 11 games this season. The good thing about Barkley is

(19:29):
that he has gone over the 79 1/2rushing yard line and three out
of five career games against Chicago.
And then he's averaged more yards per carry on the road than
at home in six out of eight career seasons that he's played
in. Which is not a good trend since

(19:49):
he's playing at home today. So I'd have to learn more
towards Barkley not getting thatand Hertz going over his rushing
yards. Based on these statistics, but.
You know, you might you might have a reason today why you.
Love Barkley to go over the rushing yards.
You know, I haven't had as much time to look at this as normal.

(20:12):
And I know some people, you know, specialize in Philadelphia
Eagles. They watch.
They live, breathe and eat Philadelphia Eagles.
Football. So maybe you have a better
reasoning than I do. About Barkley going over or
under today, but that's what I have on my notes here today.

(20:32):
But I do think that there is a possibility I would probably be
leaning more towards Barkley going over his receiving yards.
Today. Or or maybe receptions.
Let's talk about that real quick, and then we'll talk about
Hertz's passing yards. Blessed upbeat.
All right, so you know, I mentioned that that Chicago

(20:54):
ranks 21st in passing yards allowed per game.
So they're below average in thatcategory.
Chicago has allowed the 4th most20 plus yard receiving gains
this season. I need to go back to the rushing
yards and talk about this, but Chicago has allowed the 4th most
20 plus yard receiving gains this season and Barkley has had

(21:17):
220 plus yard receiving gains which adds to my comfort level
of him reaching that 19 1/2 / 191/2 receiving yard line.
He has gone over this line more times than not this season.
He's had 10 plus receiving yardsin six out of 11 games this

(21:38):
season as well. So if you're thinking about
dropping that from 19 1/2 to 10 plus, you're looking at the
same, you know, 6 out of 11 times this season he's he's gone
over that. But he's averaged more yards per
reception at home than on the road in every season that he's
played in except for one, which is a good trend since he's

(21:59):
playing at home today. And then he's gone over this
line in two out of five career games against Chicago.
So I don't. Have to lean towards Barclay
getting that today. I just also just want to mention
that Chicago wasn't extremely good or terrible at defending
against receiving yards to running backs allowed to running

(22:20):
backs, or receptions allowed to running backs.
At the start of the week and then Barkley over under. 2 1/2
receptions, He's gone over that more times than than the
receiving yards this season. He's hit the three plus
receptions in seven out of 11 games this season.
If we took that to two plus, you're looking at 9 out of 11
times this season he's gone overthat.

(22:42):
But he's only gone over that in one out of five career games
against Chicago. The 2 1/2 reception line, it's
only going over that in one out of five compared to the two out
of five with the receiving yards.
But he's had two plus receptionsand three out of five career
games against Chicago. I think the two plus receptions
is looking solid here. You know, we're looking at 9 out

(23:02):
of 11 games this season and three out of five career games
against Chicago. Not not a bad look.
That's the way I would be. Leaning towards with Barclay
today and then. Let's talk about Jalen Hurts
with the passing attack here. Chicago wasn't extremely

(23:25):
vulnerable or great at defendingagainst the passing guards.
A lot of quarterbacks this season, Jalen Hurts over under
210 1/2 passing yards, I believeblessed up.
He said that he likes Jalen Hurts for 200 plus.
Let's talk about it a little bithere.

(23:45):
He's gone over the 210 1/2 and five out of 11.
Games this season. Let's see, I think I might have
been wrong about what I just wrote above.
OK. Thanks for for letting us know
though, Jalen. Hurts over under 210 1/2 passing

(24:07):
yards. He's gone over that line and
five out of 11 games this season.
He's had 200 plus passing yards in the same amount of games this
season. So, you know, taking him from
two 210 1/2 to 200 plus, we're still looking at the same
success rate this season. But once we get to 175 plus,
he's gone over that in seven outof 11 games this season.

(24:29):
But I do like that in his only career game against Chicago, he
had 315 passing yards and I think it was what, 3 rushing
touchdowns? So he performed.
He. Performed great in that game I
didn't get a chance to look at his his split, you know, Rd.

(24:52):
versus and I can see if I can just browse it real quick Jalen
Hurts let's go look at his his history here see if he's
averaging more yardage per passing yardage on the road or
at home. Looks like there's just some

(25:14):
inconsistencies there with his home versus Rd. splits.
Yeah, there's some inconsistencies there.
One year it's this, he's doing more on the road.
One year he's doing better on the at home.
What about wins versus losses? Looks like those are

(25:37):
inconsistent too. So and then I'm not going to
look at the turf versus grass splits since this is on a hybrid
field and they don't have it filtered that way so.
And then the passing touchdowns for Hertz over under 1 1/2.
He's gone over that in five out of 11 games this season as well.

(25:58):
He's had one plus passing touchdowns and eight out of 11
games this season, but he had. 0passing touchdowns in his only
career game against Chicago. So I don't know how much I like
his passing touchdowns today andif I had to pick him to, you
know, with the receipt, with thepassing yards, probably take it
down to 175 plus, but. Which way do I lean towards him

(26:22):
going over or under the passing yards?
I like that history there. I mean, it's only one game, very
small sample size, but he did have 315 passing yards in his
only career game against Chicago.
Chicago's not good against the pass.
My only concern about Williams or not Williams, but Hertz going
over that line is the. Fact that Philadelphia.

(26:44):
Likes to call a high percentage of rushing plays could be a
little bit windy there today. Maybe they jump ahead 21 to 0
again this week and don't look back and then and just milk the
clock, you know so but I'd I'd have to lean for them to go over
that 2. 10 1/2 to Ivan. Maybe not one of my favorite

(27:09):
props today, but. Mistaken that that Barkley
receiving props look good. The hurts anytime touchdown
sounded sounded appetizing there.
OK, so. We're going to.
Stay on that passing attack. But I said I wanted to.

(27:37):
I said that I wanted to touch back up on the rushing explosive
plays allowed. OK, explosive rushing plays
allowed by Chicago. Specifically, Chicago is allowed
the 4th most 20 plus yard rushing gains this season and
the third most 40 plus rushing yard gains this season.

(28:00):
So. You know Barkley this year he's
had only 220 plus yard rushing gains and 1:40 plus yard rushing
game. Hertz has had 120 plus yard
rushing gain and zero 40 plus this season, but I think that's

(28:22):
an added benefit for this eaglesrushing attack feel like there's
a stronger likelihood that they could break out for a bigger run
today than in previous games against other teams.
And and just in this game, I think there's a better chance
Philadelphia breaks out for a bigger rushing game than than

(28:46):
Chicago does, even though Chicago picks up more rushing
yards per game. You know, but.
You know, let's stay on this passing attack here.
For for Philadelphia. Chicago was not extremely great
or terrible at defending againstthat wide receiver position
before the week started in regards to yards allowed, but

(29:10):
they did pretty good at at defending against receptions.
They ranked 8th best before the week started and receptions.
Allowed to wide receivers so that.
Had me looking. More towards receiving yards for
Philadelphia Eagles players. Today we have A.J.
Brown over under 57 1/2 receiving yards.

(29:31):
He's only gone over that line infour out of 10 games this
season, but he's had 40 plus receiving yards in six out of 10
games this season. But he's had 100 plus receiving
yards in two career games against Chicago.
He's played, you know, two career games against them and
had 181 receiving yards and 101 receiving yards.

(29:55):
He also scored a touchdown in one out of two career games
against Chicago, and he leads Philadelphia in red zone targets
with 9. So I mentioned at the start of
the. Segment that Philadelphia has a
big red zone conversion rate advantage against Chicago and I

(30:17):
also just want to add. That Chicago has allowed the 4th
most touchdowns to wide receivers this season.
So I think he's definitely a candidate here to score today
and I don't think I saw any any of the home versus Rd. splits

(30:40):
that. I'm looking at my notes from
last week on A.J. Brown and I would have wrote it
down if I if I saw that there were.
There was a favorable trend in his Rd. versus home splits.
The only thing that I have here is that he's averaged more yards
per catch on turf than grass. Once again, I'm not looking into
that stuff today because this ison a a hybrid playing surface

(31:04):
for my understanding. So, you know, I'd feel more
comfortable with Brown at 40 plus receiving yards.
But let's go back here in just asecond and look at the
explosive, explosive plays that Chicago allows, OK, through the
air, Devante Smith over under 531/2 receiving yards.

(31:29):
He's gone over that in six out of 11 games this season.
So more than half of his games he's gone over that, which is
better than A.J. Brown.
And then he's had 40 plus receiving yards in eight out of
11 games this season. Excuse me?
He's played one one career game against Chicago and had 126

(31:49):
receiving yards. He did not score a touchdown in
that game against Chicago and heranks third on Philadelphia in
red zone targets with six. So let's go to these explosive
plays real quick too. Chicago has allowed the 4th most
20 plus yard receiving gains this season all right and A.J.

(32:14):
Brown has 8 total 20 plus yard receiving gains this season.
Devante Smith has had 1020 plus yard receiving gains this
evening and and even Dotson has had four.
So just in that regard, Devante Smith looks like.

(32:35):
He has the better chance, but look, Devante Smith has also
played one extra game than A.J. Brown, so really both of these
guys are capable of picking up those 20 plus yard gains, you
know? I I think I like, I like A.J.
Brown Morgan here today. I know he hasn't gone over his

(32:57):
receiving line as much as Devante Smith has gone over his
this season, but he's played, you know, AJ Brown's played two
career games against Chicago. Both of these guys have had at
least one career game against Chicago and they.
Both had 100 plus receiving yards.
But you know AJ. Brown and we can go look at.

(33:19):
Target share as well, You know, for Philadelphia, Devante Smith
technically leads the team in target share, but once again,
he's played one extra game than A.J.
Brown. He only has three extra targets
than A.J. Brown this season, but but

(33:39):
Devante Smith. Does have a higher?
Catch rate, he's catching 71% ofthe passes targets that he's
receiving and and AJ Brown's only getting 61% so.
But I do like, I do like, you know, whether or not I suppose

(34:03):
I'd have to lean towards A.J. Brown going over that receiving
yards. And I I kind of wonder how many
times that they both have gone over that line this season.
Can they coexist? That that would be a question.
You know, I, I, I typically would rather pick one player or
the other going over his receiving yards.

(34:24):
But if they, you know, can coexist, it just depends on how
many times that they have gone over those receiving yards
together. You know, I mean, last week
against Dallas, 89 for Defonte Smith, 110 for A.J.
Brown. So I think that they really can
coexist. Just once again, the concern

(34:46):
that I have is that Philadelphiacalls a high percentage of
rushing plays. It could be a little bit windy
today and if they get ahead early and and hold on to that
lead. But I think I do like A.J.
Brown, at least to to. Score a touchdown, right?
I think Jalen Hurts would be my favorite player in this game to

(35:08):
score a touchdown for Philadelphia.
And then it'll be A.J. Brown.
I I like the fact that A.J. Brown leads Philadelphia in red
zone targets with 9. I like the fact that he has had
a touchdown in one out of two career games against Chicago,
compared to Devante Smith, who who did not get one in his only
career game against Chicago, andDotson, who did not get one in

(35:32):
his only game against Chicago. But you know last night's check
Dotson's over under. Receiving yards was at 8 1/2,
which he's gone over in half of his games this season.
He's actually actually had 20 plus receiving yards and.
Four out of. 10 games this season and in in his only career
game against Chicago, he had 30 receiving yards.

(35:52):
I. Didn't get a chance to look at
dots and splits, but you know, if if you have that time, maybe
maybe this is this isn't a bad look here.
You know, looks like this seasonat home.
Many more yards per catch at home this season.
He's played Four Seasons in the NFL.

(36:14):
Dotson. He's had more yards per
reception and three out of four career seasons at home than on
the. Road let me look first look at
these wins and and tie trends. He has more that's that's a
split trend 2 and 2 so. But yeah, I mean, I think that's

(36:34):
a a decent look here if you likedots in the day, doesn't look
too doesn't look too bad. See, Blessed up says I'm I'm I'm
hangover. And lost right what stat I was
looking at. Oh it's OK man, I understand the
day after Thanksgiving and everything.
Once again, I hope you guys had a great time with your families
yesterday and thanks for joiningthe.

(36:56):
Podcast today. So yeah, let's continue talking
about the passing attack. Dallas and Goddard tied in for
Philadelphia. Chicago has allowed the 10th
most receiving yards to tight ends this season.
When I was looking at this information before the games.

(37:17):
Yesterday they ranked 10th, 10thworst.
In that category and then 5th. Worst in receptions allowed to
tight ends. Goddard over under 36 1/2
receiving yards. He's gone over that line and
only four out of 10 games this season, but he's had 30 plus
receiving yards in in half of his games.
And then if we took that down to20 plus receiving yards, he's

(37:40):
gone over that in eight out of 10 games this season.
He has gone over the 36 1/2 receiving yard line in one out
of two career games. Against Chicago in the game that
he did not go over, he had 20 receiving yards in that game.
So I mentioned he's had 20 plus receiving yards in eight out of

(38:00):
10 games this season, and he's also had 20 plus receiving yards
in both career games against. Chicago.
He did score a touchdown in his in one out of two career games
against Chicago, and he ranked second on Philadelphia in red
zone targets with 7. So he's not far behind A.J.

(38:23):
Brown in those red zone targets.But when I was looking at
Chicago's defense, it seemed like they were a little bit
better at defending against touchdowns allowed to the tight
end position more more than the wide receiver position.
Now, typically, I mean more teams are going to be allowing

(38:47):
receiving touchdowns to to wide receivers than tight ends.
That's just how it works. But you know, also I I like to
look at like the the relative toother teams in the league, what
are they allowing and they're about.
Average at defending against thethe tight end touchdowns
compared to that wide receiver position which they're very

(39:07):
vulnerable to and then just. To give you some another idea,
looks like they're about average, maybe slightly above
average at defending against rushing touchdowns allowed the
running backs. The receiving touchdowns allowed
the running backs. They've allowed three this
season, which adds upside for Barkley anytime touchdown.

(39:30):
But as I mentioned earlier, Barkley hasn't had a touchdown
in five career. Games against against Chicago.
And he's only had two receiving.Touchdowns this season, but that
does add a little bit of extra upside for for Barkley to to

(39:51):
find his way into the end zone today.
But I still yeah, I like I like Jalen Hurts and A.J.
Brown more. Goddard could get in there, just
not I like the other two more. And then.
The receptions for Goddard, He'sgone over the 3 1/2 reception
line and four out of 10 games this season, but he's had three

(40:14):
plus receptions and seven out of10 games this season. 2 plus
receptions in nine out of 10 games this season.
And he's actually had exactly 4 receptions in both career games
against Chicago, 4:00 and 4:00 so.
And then once again, guys, Chicago has allowed the fifth
most receptions allowed to tightends this season, so.

(40:40):
Yeah, I mean, I would feel more comfortable with with him
dropping that line down much like many other props feel more
comfortable taking them at 20 plus receiving yards and two.
Plus receptions. But.
You know I don't, I don't even think 3 plus receptionist looks
bad. 4 plus receptions Once again, he's only gone over that

(41:02):
in four out of 10 games this season, but he did have exactly
4 receptions in both career games against Chicago, so it
sounds like it might be a sweat in regards to that, you know?
Looks like that could be one of the sweatier, sweatier props.
Now let's talk about let's talk about Chicago's passing game.

(41:27):
Chicago Well, let's talk about Caleb Williams passing yards
real quick. Philadelphia hasn't been great
nor terrible at defending against passing yards allowed to
quarterbacks this season. But last that I checked, Caleb
Williams passing yards over under 206 1/2, he's gone over

(41:51):
that line in nine out of 11 games this season.
The games that he didn't go over, he had 172 and 193
passing. Yards.
And he hasn't. Played against Philadelphia
throughout his short career. And go look real quick at Caleb
Williams game log here on ESPN.com.

(42:11):
Filter this by splits and see ifhe has more passing yards per
per attempt on the on the road versus home.
Last season he had more at home.This season it's tied and then
wins and losses versus ties. He's had more passing yards this

(42:35):
season per per attempt and when his team wins or ties, and same
with last season. So I think there is a stronger
likelihood of Caleb Williams going over those passing yards
if his team wins. But man, it's still not looking
like a terrible prop. Here you know. 9 out of 11.

(42:56):
Games this season he's gone overthat line, which is which is
nice. That's one of the better, higher
success rates, if not the highest success rate that I see
out of all the players today. And then the the passing
touchdowns, you know he's got, he's got 2 plus passing
touchdowns and four out of 11. Games this season he's had one

(43:19):
plus passing touchdown and eightout of 11 games this season.
Once again, he hasn't played against Philadelphia throughout
his short career. Before we get, before we move
on, I want to. Thank our sponsors bet US
mybookie.agwalmart.com, Open goal, the MLB and NFL pro shops,

(43:44):
and W energy drinks. Thank you guys so much.
OK, so I also want to mention the explosive receiving plays
allowed by Philadelphia. All right, Philadelphia has
allowed the 7th most 20 plus yard receiving gains out of any

(44:04):
team in the league and the second most 40 plus yard
receiving gains this season. I mean, so they're allowing a
good chunk of yardage during those during those, you know,
those completions. And Chicago is good at picking

(44:25):
up yards, big plays O Doonsday has 1320 plus yard receiving
gains this season. He doesn't have a 40 plus yard
receiving gain, but 1320 plus Swift.
He's had 320 plus yard receivinggains this season and 2:40.

(44:46):
Plus yard receiving gains. DJ Moore has 720 plus yard
receiving gains this season and 1:40 plus.
Yard Burden has 520 plus and 1:40 plus.
So all of these guys have big play capabilities for Chicago.
Let's talk about DeAndre Swift. First and foremost.

(45:07):
Philadelphia has allowed the 4thmost receiving yards to running
backs this season. Before yesterday's games.
That's what I that's what I saw.DeAndre Swift over under 12 1/2
receiving yards. He's gone over that line in
seven out of 10 games this season.
He's had 10 plus receiving yardsin eight out of 10 games this
season. But DeAndre Swift has gone over

(45:29):
the 12 1/2 receiving line in both career games that he's ever
played against Philadelphia. He also had a touchdown in one
out of two career games against Philadelphia.
And he has more yards per catch when his team wins or ties
rather than loses in his six year career in five of those
seasons. So five out of six career

(45:51):
seasons more yards per catch when his team wins or ties
rather than loses. So I do think that this is a
good look here today, DeAndre Swift to to go over these
receiving yards regardless if his team wins or loses.
But if if the Bears win, I thinkthere is a stronger likelihood.
So if you like the Bears to win this game, I think there is a
stronger likelihood that DeAndreSwift goes over those receiving

(46:14):
yards. And then Philadelphia has
allowed the eighth most receiving yards to wide
receivers this season. Let's talk about O Doonsday.
You know, I mentioned up here that he has had 1320 plus
receiving yards 20/13/20 plus yard receiving gains this
season. And you know Philadelphia has

(46:36):
allowed the 7th most 20 plus yard receiving gains this
season. And, you know, I think that that
adds value to O Doonese here over under 48 1/2 receiving
yards. He's gone over that line in more
than half of his games this year.
He's gone over that line. In six out of 11 games this
season, he's had 40 plus receiving yards.

(46:57):
In seven out of 11 games this season, he's had 30 plus.
So we took that down to 30 plus.We're looking at 10 out of 11
games this season he's hit that line.
Now, he's never played any career games against
Philadelphia and you know he hashe has averaged more yards per
catch on the road than at home in two seasons that he's been in

(47:21):
the NFL. So that's a good trend here as
well. The fact that he's on the road
now it's a it's a smaller samplesize.
It would be nice if we had ten career seasons for Odunze where
he has had more yards per catch on the road than at home in two
seasons that he's been in the NFL.
But you know, I think that's still a good trend.

(47:44):
It's it's better than if it werethe other way around.
So I like. What I see here for O Doonsday
today, DJ Moore over under 34 1/2 receiving guards.
He's gone over that line in eight out of 11 games this
season. Another another good success
rate there compared to O Doonsday.
He's gone over his receiving line and only 6 out of 11.

(48:05):
DJ Moore, 8 out of 11 games, he's gone over that this season.
Even if we drop that down to 30 plus receiving yards, he still
has only gone over that in eightout of 11 games this season.
And once we get it to 20 plus, we're looking at 9 out of 11.
But he's also gone over his receiving line, the 34 1/2 and

(48:26):
one out of two career games against Philadelphia.
He had 29 and 42 receiving. Yards.
So, you know, maybe 25 + 20 plusI'd feel more comfortable with
DJ Moore here and then he hasn't.
Scored a A. Touchdown in those two career
games against Philadelphia. And then Luther Burden.
I talked about him last week andhow we liked him over his

(48:50):
receiving yards last week, and Ibelieve he got there.
This week. I'm a little bit more skeptical
about it simply because he has many more yards per catch at
home then on the road this season and he's playing on the
road. But he does have he's averaged
many more yards per catch and wins than the losses this

(49:10):
season. So if you'd like the bears to
win today, I would have to learnmore towards him going over the
31 1/2 receiving line. But, you know, if if the Bears
do lose, I I'd have to more so lean for him not getting there.
All right. And then what else do we have

(49:32):
here? That was about all of the props
that I had time to look for today.
It's been a real busy week. You know, this is the fourth NFL
game. Usually there's one NFL game on
Thursday, you know. And then I have a lot more time
to prepare for Sunday shows, so I've been crunching these
numbers in as quickly and as efficiently as possible.

(49:54):
Let me just browse my notes realquick to see if I.
Have any anything else? That I wanted to.
Cover here. What did you say, Ivan?
I missed a lot. Got busy here at work for a
second. It's OK.
I appreciate you for joining. I know you.
Do your best to to join when youcan.

(50:18):
If you guys have any questions before I get out of here, I'd
I'd be happy to try to address those questions for.
You guys let me just browse my notes to make sure I don't have
anything left that I wanted to cover.
You know, I mentioned, I mentioned that Philadelphia,
I've mentioned this on a previous show, Philadelphia.

(50:39):
They started the season off 4 and O, and when I was looking at
their statistics when they were four and O, there was nothing
that popped off the charts to me.
So just somehow, man, Philadelphia finds ways to win,
win games. And so when I'm looking at the
statistics, specifically in games where Philadelphia's

(51:04):
involved. I look at Philadelphia's
statistics a lot less. I, I criticize them a lot less
because, yeah, just somehow they, they, they end up winning
games. I would definitely look at
trying to find out like special team statistics.
I know I mentioned, you know, the Eagles, they've blocked a

(51:25):
few field goals this season. Maybe Chicago has been had a
couple field goals blocked or sothat could be another added
benefit for Philadelphia in thisgame.
So let's let's not forget about special teams once again.
I just I just haven't had time to to look at that.
Not move podcast says they got the Bears tonight.

(51:47):
Man, this one's tough for me. I was two and one against the
spread yesterday O and three on the money line.
So. I think that.
I think that. I think that.
Spread is just too big, man. You know, I, I think Chicago is
playing real good ball. They've won four games in a row.

(52:11):
I like their passing advantage. If they are forced to pass in
this game in the later stages ofthe game.
I think, you know, I have, I have confidence that they that
they get it done and they have success.
They're good at running the ball.

(52:34):
I think Philadelphia wins wins this game by exactly 5 points.
I have to lean towards the underin this game. 44 1/2.
So let's go. I think the last time they
played it was 25 to 20, but thatwould be over. 24 to 19 is a

(52:57):
weird number. Any a margin of victory by 5.
Alone is a weird number, you know. 22 to 1722 to 17, just a
weird a weird number, but yeah, that'd be my prediction, I

(53:17):
suppose. 22 to 17, Philadelphia.I don't know how Philly's going
to get to 22, but it'd be funny to see if that happened.
So anyways, yeah, thanks again for joining today, guys, and I
will see you guys again on Sunday.
Best of luck to you guys today. Thank you so much for joining

(53:39):
once again and a special thank you to our sponsors.
Bet US mybookie.agwalmart.com, Open goal, the MLB and NFL Pro
shops and W energy drinks. All right, let's see Ivan or
bust up, he said. Did you touch on Swift?
I like him for. 55 1/2 rushing plus receiving.

(53:59):
Yeah, I touched on Swift a little bit and you know, you can
go back. Obviously you know you can go
back and and watch the the film here, but Swift.
I, I was, I was looking at his receiving.
Yards, you know. Considering.

(54:21):
Philadelphia has allowed the 4thmost receiving yards to running
backs this season. Swift has gone over the 12 1/2.
Receiving line in seven out of 10 games this season, he's gone
over the 12 1/2 receiving yard line in both career games that
he's played against Philadelphia.
And you know, Swift used to playfor Philadelphia.

(54:43):
You know, I wouldn't necessarilyconsider this a revenge game
since Philadelphia didn't trade it.
Trade him. But maybe you do.
You know, they didn't sign him. The Bears picked him up in the
free agency. So Philadelphia just didn't
think of him, you know, fondly enough to sign him so.

(55:03):
Maybe he does come out and play with a little bit bigger of a
chip on his shoulder and I, you know, I didn't touch on who I
think is going to maybe get an any time touchdown.
For for Chicago too, right? So let's do that before I get
out of here. Philadelphia's allowed the
second most rushing touchdowns to quarterback.
So you know if you're if. You're thinking about Caleb

(55:25):
Williams sneaking in the end zone.
You got that working with. You let's see what else here
Philadelphia 3 receiving touchdowns allowed to running
backs, which is about average orso let's go check out Swift only
has 1 receiving touchdown this season, so I don't I don't see
too much of an extra added benefit for that.

(55:48):
What about rushing touchdowns allowed to running backs?
Philadelphia has allowed eight. OK, what about these other
positions? Philadelphia, man, they've
allowed the second fewest wide receiver touchdowns this season
and the second fewest touchdownsto to tight end.

(56:13):
So I'd have to lean towards a rushing touchdown today for
Chicago. So Caleb Williams, Swift or
Manun Guy out of the three? Didn't we say Swift has had a?
Touchdown in in one out of two career games against

(56:33):
Philadelphia. Revenge game for Swift.
I know, I know, Kelsey doesn't play for Philadelphia anymore,
but Swift Kelsey? We can, we can, we can look at

(57:01):
who you know, who are they handing the ball off?
To. In the I feel like the
statistics that I'm going to look at real quick are going to
be a little bit skewed, so I'll look at.
The red zone, the red zone statistics here for Chicago,
right? I'll filter this by red zone
rushing. I'm looking at pro dash football
dash reference dot. Com and I'm looking.

(57:24):
At. Who's getting those those rushes
for Chicago when they're in the red zone this season?
Swift 40%. When they're inside the 20, he's
getting 40% of the rushes. Manon Guy 31.4% Caleb Williams

(57:46):
25.7%. What about that?
You know, inside the five? Swift 42.9% tied with Manung
Guy. If I remember correctly though
this Chicago started using Manung guy a little bit more as

(58:06):
later on in the season, which iswhy I think the numbers that I'm
looking at could be a little bitinaccurate.
That's what I would do before, you know, before I made a
decision, right? Is is go through?
The games. Let's see when Monongai actually
started picking up some rushing attempts.

(58:28):
And did they both play against Pittsburgh and Minnesota?
Monongai and Swift, Pittsburgh versus Minnesota, they both
played. Swift had more carries against
Minnesota. I don't know about red zone
carries, but he had more carries.
But Monongai had more carries last week against Pittsburgh.

(58:53):
I'm specifically interested in the red zone, you know, and I,
if I'm not mistaken, but none guy is kind of that that guy.
Now when they're like near the five and stuff, let's go see
what happened in this in this Bears game.

(59:14):
Touchdown Bears Caleb Williams pass to DJ Moore for that first
touchdown. 5 yard Williams pass to Loveland.
Did they have a Redstone carry? My nun guy got that a 2 yard

(59:39):
touchdown run last week against Pittsburgh so.
But it was second and goal on the one.
Or excuse me, on the on the on Pittsburgh's 2, second goal and
DeAndre Swift got the carry 1st and goal on Pittsburgh's 8.
Monung Guy got the pick up for five yards and then it was Swift

(01:00:02):
and then it was. Monung guy who got the
touchdown. So it's it's tough to tell, you
know, on on who's going to get that, but I'm going to have to
I'm going to say swift because he does have that career
touchdown. He's he's shown that he can.
Get a touchdown. Against Philadelphia and not

(01:00:23):
saying the young guy can't but and and that revenge game
factor. So yeah, you said Loveland is
sneaky. Yeah, but yeah, you know, All in
all, guys, I don't necessarily want you to come in here and
just blindly tail whatever I'm talking about, right?

(01:00:45):
Want hopefully you guys, you know, make or making your own
decisions. If you are tailing what I'm
talking about, please do so at your own risk and please do so
responsibly. But I just try to get on here
and give you guys some more information that you didn't have
before, before you're entering in in today's slate.
And there's other great information out there, other

(01:01:07):
people that are very knowledgeable about about
football. And talk about they have a
different perspective than I do,you know, they may talk about
how Jalen Hurts is really good against the zone instead of man
to man and Chicago run zone. And you know what I mean?
So there's all different. Types of information out there

(01:01:30):
for you guys to give yourself a better chance at success with
this stuff so but yeah my. Favorite touchdown score Hertz,
A.J. Brown, DeAndre Swift and.
That's about all I got. But yeah, once again, thank you

(01:01:53):
guys so much. I will see you guys on Sunday
morning. I believe I usually get on here
at about 8:30 AM Eastern Time. We're on a schedule now.
I just, I can't think of what time at the top of my head, but
I'm pretty sure that's the time.If you go to the Twitch, it has

(01:02:13):
our schedule on there. And yeah, so thanks again.
Once again, thanks to our sponsors.
Bet US mybookie.agwalmart.com, Open Goal, the MLB and NFL Pro
shops and W energy drinks. All right, good luck today,
everybody. Good luck.
And how about them Cowboys? This non casual podcast may not

(01:02:40):
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