NFL week 12 panthers @ 49ers

NMP - better bettors breaks down the week 12 Panthers @ 49ers

Episode Transcript

(00:26):
Music. None.

(01:02):
What's going on? Not Move Nation, Welcome to the
Not Move podcast. Today is November 24th at 10:35
AM Eastern Time. I'm here with JB Sport Talk and
we are going to break down the Monday Night Football game
tonight between the Carolina Panthers and the San Francisco
49ers. Like to say thank you to the

(01:24):
supporters, subscribers and followers.
We really appreciate you guys. Also a special thank you to our
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(01:44):
All right, so tonight we have the Carolina Panthers at San
Francisco 49ers. Carolina leads the all time
series 13 to 10 against San Francisco.
Brock Purdy technically has a one and O career record against
Carolina, but all he did in thatgame was have one, one carry for

(02:05):
one -1 rushing yard and 0 pass attempts.
Bryce Young, quarterback for Carolina's never played against
San Francisco. What's going on?
Blessed up P Let's go. You know this is Christian
Mccaffrey's first game playing against his former team.

(02:26):
He's currently the running back for the San Francisco 49ers,
going up against the Carolina Panthers, who traded him back in
2022. Let's see, you know Bryce Young,
I had to do a little bit of research on where he was from.
He was born in Pennsylvania but moved to Pasadena, CA when he

(02:48):
was a kid and considers it his hometown.
So that's about 6 hours away from San Francisco.
Anyways, San Francisco's favoredby 7 1/2 points.
The over under is 49 1/2. Last that I checked.
Carolina carries a six and five record into this matchup and

(03:14):
they're coming off of an overtime victory against Atlanta
at Atlanta 30 to 27. And then San Francisco carries
A7 and four record coming off a 41 to 22 win at Arizona.
I didn't see any weather issues for this game and I'm going to

(03:36):
check to see right now if we have any major offensive
injuries. Everything looks pretty clear
for the most part in regards to the injuries.
So anyways, you know, overall I'd give San Francisco a decent
sized passing advantage in this game.

(03:56):
You know, Brock Purdy is that projected starting quarterback
tonight for San Francisco. So yeah, I give San Francisco a
pretty good sized passing advantage in this one, a care.
Carolina a big rushing advantage, which is surprising,
you know, considering San Francisco has Christian
McCaffrey, but they really haven't been accumulating a lot
of yards per game with their rushing attack.

(04:19):
Carolina has. So I give Carolina a big rushing
advantage. San Francisco, I give them a big
third down conversion advantage,a slight red zone attempts per
game advantage, a slight red zone conversion rate advantage.
I don't really see a clear sackson the quarterback advantage.
Neither of these teams are really good at getting after the

(04:40):
opposing quarterbacks. Then I give Carolina a slight
turnover differential advantage.What are your first initial
thoughts on this game, JB? What do you think about, you
know, Brock Birdie being in there tonight instead of who
have they had in there? Matt Jones.

(05:01):
Matt Jones, Mack 10 I've been saying, I mean, I, I think
initially Carolina wins. Not only that, but going over on
the the 49ers quarterback side, right?
I think you keep the hot hand going right, personally, I know

(05:25):
Brock pretty got paid all that money and they would, you know,
somebody could possibly be on the hot seat.
But and and I don't know necessarily.
I don't know, man. I think they're just continuity.
It might be time though, to switch.
I don't know. I've I've been I've been an
advocate though, for riding thathot hand and having that

(05:46):
continuity, except especially being like week what, 12?
Like dude hasn't played since Week 2.
I think so. Let's see, Purdy I'm seeing
played last game. He started last game against
Arizona and then Matt Jones started the previous six games.

(06:09):
Matt Jones has started 8. Looks like 8 total games this
season. Yeah, yeah.
They put Brock back in, took himout, brought him in, took him
out. Yeah, that's got to mess with
the chemistry, what you would think, you know.
And yeah, and that's what I've been saying.
Yeah, yeah, I hear you on that. Let's see here.

(06:30):
You know, I mentioned that Carolina leads the all time
series 13 to 10 against San Francisco.
Now San Francisco in the games that they have won, they've won
seven out of their ten games, all time games against Carolina

(06:51):
by 8 plus points for those that are considering San Francisco
minus that 7 1/2 tonight. And then San Francisco has won
three out of four games at San Francisco, which this game is
being played at San Francisco. They've won three out of four
games at San Francisco against Carolina by 8 plus points.

(07:16):
So more times than not, when SanFrancisco was winning
regardless, you know, 7 out of 10 all time against Carolina by
8 plus points and then three outof four in San Francisco by 8
plus points. There you have it.
Now the against the spread trends are a little different.
Carolina seven and four against the spread this season.

(07:39):
San Francisco six and five against the spread.
However, Carolina is 3 and two against the spread as a Rd.
underdog and San Francisco is zero and two against the spread
as a home favorites. With that being said, you know

(08:00):
the over under is 49 1/2. Four out of the last 10 games
that these teams have played hada combined score of 50 plus
points, so more times than not. It's gone under that in the last
10 games. And then five out of 11 all time
games between these two teams inSan Francisco has had a combined

(08:22):
score of 50 plus points. So more times than not, when
these two teams play at San Francisco, it's gone under the
50 total points between these teams.
Now Carolina is 6 and five to the over this season.
San Francisco 7, three and one to the over, which is the best
in the NFL. Carolina three and two to the

(08:42):
over as an away underdog. San Francisco one and one to the
over as a home favorite. So those those current trends
this year are suggesting this game goes over, but the
historical statistics are are you know, tell a different story
there. And we'll talk about those

(09:03):
projections and what we think here as the show progresses
where whether we think, you know, who we like on the spread
and do we think this is going togo over or under that 49 1/2
total points before we get into player props?
I mean, this is somewhat of a ofa player prop that I'm going to

(09:24):
be talking about, but it's more of a more of a of a team prop
here. I had to look into the defensive
touchdown situation here. I know there are some people
that sometimes like to play those anytime defensive
touchdowns. I think we had one last night in
that Rams game, right? So, so I I looked up how many

(09:47):
times there was a defensive touchdown.
In the 23 games that these two teams have played throughout
history, there has been a total of 9 defensive touchdowns in 23
all time games between these twoteams.
San Francisco scored two defensive touchdowns in a game
once. San Francisco's had four
defensive touchdowns all time against Carolina.

(10:08):
Carolina's had five total defensive touchdowns against San
Francisco. And the first touchdown ever
scored between these two teams was a Pick 6 by Carolina.
So I thought that was a pretty interesting little statistic
there. Now, this season, Carolina does
have a pick 6, but San but they don't have a fumble 6 and San

(10:32):
Francisco's defense doesn't havea pick 6 or a fumble 6.
But you know, I thought I'd giveyou guys that that little
information there. Anyways, Ivan says he's got
Hubbard for 15 rushing yards. Oh, he's just he's coming in and
throwing all of his his props that he likes in with us.
So let's let's look into those alittle bit here.

(10:54):
Hubbard, San Francisco before the week started, wasn't
terrible nor great at defending rushing yards allowed to running
backs that were somewhere in themiddle.
They were, you know, around average.
What I'll say about San Francisco's all around rushing

(11:14):
defense is they ranked 12th bestat the beginning of the season.
At the beginning of excuse me, at the beginning of the week,
San Francisco ranked 12th best in the NFL and rushing yards
allowed per game. Chuba Hubbard over under 14 1/2
rushing yards. He's gone over that line in
eight out of nine games this season.

(11:35):
Ivan, he's gone over that line in one straight game.
He's had 14 plus, if you could take the hook off that 14 1/2.
He's had 14 plus rushing yards in all nine games this season.
He's played one career game against San Francisco but didn't
have any carries or targets. So I don't even know if he

(11:56):
actually played in that game. JB, what are you?
What are you thinking about Chuba Hubbard tonight?
You know, I, I didn't. That was weird.
Hold up, I did notice that you know Hubbard was getting a lot
more carries at the beginning ofthe season than he that then he

(12:17):
is now and he's only been getting about 5 carries.
Let me let me check real quick before I ask you what you think
about Chuba Hubbard, JB He's hadfour rushing attempts in his
most recent game three and then 5 S Rico Dowdell's really eating

(12:39):
into, you know, his his rush attempts, but that line is
pretty low. Do you think, do you think Chubb
Chubba Hubbard has 15 plus rushing yards tonight?
JB Any thought on that or what do you think about Rico Dowdell?
I think you're muted. Yeah, yeah.

(13:06):
All right. I think Cuba gets it going
against the Arizona defense or not the Arizona defense.
I'm so sorry. San.
Fran, San Fran, I think they gotit going against San Fran.

(13:27):
I Rico, though, man, Rico's beenkind of going off any like
Rico's been kind of like that man right now, like I like Rico.
I do like Bryce Bryce Young too.I.

(13:51):
Think it's going to be a good rushing game for the Panthers.
I think they're going to eat, you know, I think I think it's
going to be a good, good production day on the ground,
whether it's Bryce Young, Rushing, combination of Rico or

(14:12):
oh boy, you know. Right on, man.
Yeah, Rico Dowdell, Last that I checked his over under was 76
1/2 rushing yards. He's gone over that in four out
of 11 games this season. He's gone under that in two
straight games. So Rico Dowdell has had 60 plus
rushing yards in the exact same amount of games that he's gone

(14:34):
on over that 76 1/2 rushing yardline 4 out of 11 games this
season. He's had 50 plus rushing yards
in six out of 11 games this season.
He's just had 45 plus rushing yards in seven out of 11 games
this season. He's had 130 plus rushing yards
in three out of 11 games this season.

(14:56):
Now, Hubbard did not play against Miami on on October 5th
or against Dallas on October 12th.
Dowdell had 206 rushing yards inone of those games and 183
rushing yards in another one of those games.
So it's really seems like Dowdell's been having those

(15:16):
monstrous games when Hubbard wasout.
Hubbard's in tonight and Rico Dowdell's played two career
games against San Francisco and only had 11 and 15 rushing
yards. Didn't score a touchdown in
either one of those games. So if I were to have to pick
between the two, between Hubbardand Dowdell here, I would I

(15:39):
would pick Hubbard and I would like to take that hook off to
give me 100% success rate this season.
Hubbard 14 plus rushing yards innine out of nine games this
season. That's that would be the most
ideal spot. And then I think if I were to
have to choose Dowdell, you know, I would at least lower
that to 50 plus rushing yards. He's got, he's had 50 plus

(16:03):
rushing yards in six out of 11 games this season, 45 out of 7
and 11. So somewhere between that 45 and
50 range. And then I, I see that, you
know, Ivan was talking about Bryce Young rushing yards.
Last that I checked, I saw it atover under 7 1/2.
He's only gone over that line infour out of 10 games this

(16:24):
season. He's gone under that in two
straight games. I would feel more comfortable
getting that at 5 plus rushing yards.
He's gone over that in six out of 10 games this season.
He's never played against San Francisco.
And when I was looking at Bryce Young's rushing statistics when
it comes to the turf versus grass splits, home versus away

(16:46):
splits, I didn't really see anything that was 2 telling, you
know, one year he would have more yards per carry on on that
home. The next year he'd have more
yards per carry on the road. So I think it's just somewhat
the pins, but much like San Francisco's rushing yards

(17:06):
allowed to the running back position before the week
started, I mentioned that they were about average at defending
against that. Same thing with the the
quarterback rushing yards. They're they were about average
before the week started at defending against that.
So and then and then if I had totake anybody over their true
line, it'd be Chuba Hubbard overthe 14 1/2 rushing yards.

(17:30):
And then, yeah, I would probablylean towards Bryce Young, Ivan
and then Rico Dowdell on those on those rushing yards.
But let's see what other props that you have that you mentioned
here. Bryce Young for 206 1/2 passing
yards. I mean, Bryce Young last week,
JB against Atlanta last week when Carolina was going into

(17:53):
that game, Atlanta allowed the fewest passing yards to opposing
teams and Bryce Young threw for 448 yards.
And Ivan, Ivan was on top of that.
He likes, he liked Bryce Young over the passing yards and I was
a little concerned about that, but he went way over and Ivan

(18:18):
likes him here again today against San Francisco, who ranks
28th and passing yards allowed per game before the week
started. What do you think about Bryce
Young today getting some passingyards, JBI?
Like Bryce Young, I've definitely have made hot takes

(18:42):
that, you know in two years, Bryce Young be be better than
Jalen Hurts, right? I think it's possible.
Bryce Young is a pro. I like it.
I agree with Let's let's go ridethat ride that Bryce Young
train. So, you know, Carolina, it's a

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it's a weird situation because Carolina is better at
accumulating rushing yards on the ground than that they are
through the air. And there's a pretty big
difference there. But San Francisco is weaker
against the past and they are the run.
So I think San Francisco's defense matches up somewhat well
today against Carolina. So I think Bryce Young's has to

(19:28):
be that X Factor for Carolina. Carolina does call a higher
percentage of rushing plays thatrelative to the other teams in
the league, they ranked 21st in passing play percentage.
So but yeah, Bryce Young, you know, he's only gone over the
206 1/2 passing yards in two outof 10 games this season.

(19:49):
He did go over last game. As I mentioned, he's had 190
plus passing yards and four out of 10 games this season.
He's had 150 plus passing yards and six out of 10 games this
season. He's never played against San
Francisco. He's had more passing yards per
attempt on turf. This game is being played on
grass. He's had more passing yards per

(20:10):
attempt on turf than grass and all three seasons that he's
played in, which is a bad trend.And then?
He has more passing yards per attempt when his team wins or
ties rather than loses in all three career seasons.
So I think that if I think that Bryce Young does have a better

(20:30):
chance of going over those passing yards tonight if the
Carolina Panthers win this game.So I think now is a good time to
kind of, you know, maybe make our our predictions for the
game. I mean, do you think Carolina
wins this game, JB, or do you like San Francisco in this?

(20:51):
One I do, I like Carolina, I like Carolina.
I like him a lot. I I don't know if it'll be like,
you know, them taking off it might be a battle, but I think I
see Carolina coming out on top at the end of the game.
You know, maybe it's due from him, you know, being behind and

(21:13):
having to play catch up, but I think he goes in there and and
has a good game. Yeah, I would have to lean
towards Carolina covering that spread plus 7 1/2.
I think Carolina to win is is very doable, very doable.

(21:34):
But I think it's also a little ambitious to take an 7 1/2 point
underdog to, to win outright. I'm, I'm thinking, you know, San
Francisco wins this game by 4 points.
But you know, so with these statistics, Ivan, I am going to

(21:57):
go against, I must say Bryce Young goes under those passing
yards. But I, I think he's going up
against a, a good, a great pass defense to accumulate those
passing yards against. And San Francisco doesn't have a
good pass defense. So but I I can't go with
something where, you know, BryceYoung's only gone over that line

(22:18):
in two out of 10 games this season.
If I were to take Bryce Young's passing yards, I'd have to at
least get it down to probably 150.
But and then the these trends, you know, the fact that he has
more passing yards per attempt on turf than grass, I'm
concerned about. Now, that doesn't necessarily
mean that, you know, I mentionedthis yesterday.

(22:38):
That doesn't necessarily mean that he has less passing yards
in games where he plays on turf than grass.
But you know, if you're if you that would require me to do a
little bit more math, but I didn't have the time to do that
that math this morning. God.

(22:59):
Bless it, but but yeah, typically, you know, I would
think that if a player is has more passing yards per attempt
on turf than grass and they probably accumulate more passing
yards as well on turf than grass, but not always the case.
But hey, I was wrong last last week about Bryce Young Ivan or

(23:22):
blessed up P you called that out.
So I mean, he called every. I do want to let everybody know
that you called Bryce Young to have a a good game last week and
here you are again calling for it again.
Blessed up, Pete. I mean, it's on, it is on track
record, right? It was on the show.

(23:43):
So it is, it is, it's recorded. Y'all don't believe it?
Yeah, Xavier Legette over 23 1/2receiving yards.
Get, Last that I checked, Ivan, I had it at 24 1/2.
Now, San Francisco has allowed the third most receiving yards

(24:05):
to wide receivers this season. Before the week started, they
allowed the second most receptions to wide receivers.
Before the week started, we get over under 24 1/2 receiving
yards. He's gone over that line in
three out of nine games this season.
He's gone over that line in one straight game.
He's had 20 plus receiving yardsin four out of nine games this

(24:25):
season. He's had 15 plus receiving yards
in six out of nine games this season.
He's had 10 plus receiving yardsin seven out of nine games this
season. He's never played against San
Francisco and he has more yards per catch when his team wins or
ties rather than loses, loses inboth seasons that he's played
in. So I think, I mean, yeah,

(24:48):
anything's possible on any givenSunday, in this case Monday.
But I do see a bigger likelihoodof him going over those
receiving yards if his team wins, much like Bryce Young's
passing yards. I think if, if, if the Panthers
win, there's a better chance of Leggette going over the
receiving yards and Bryce Young going over the passing yards.

(25:10):
If they lose, I have to lean towards the under on that.
And then he says Christian McCaffrey 40 yards receiving.
Let's go check out Mccaffrey's receiving line.
You know, Carolina was about average had defending against
receiving yards allowed to running backs before the week

(25:30):
started. Before the week started, they
ranked 4th worst in receptions allowed to running backs.
Last night I checked McCaffrey over under 44 1/2 receiving
yards. He's gone over that line in nine
out of 11 games this season. He went under that in one
straight game. He's had 40 plus receiving
yards, Ivan, in nine out of ninegames this season, all nine

(25:52):
games. And then he's gone over that
line, the 44 1/2 receiving line in two out of three games that
he's played with Brock Purdy in this season.
You know, he's played a lot of games with Matt Jones.
So I had to look at the information on what he's been
getting receiving with Brock Purdy.

(26:14):
And he's had 40 yards receiving,73 and 92.
He's never played against Carolina.
So and I'm we'll get into his rushing prop here in a minute,
but I'm I'm leaning I I I'm liking his receiving prop a
little bit more here. JB, what what are you thinking
about McCaffrey tonight? Do you think that he just balls

(26:36):
out and goes crazy against Carolina, his former team?
What did he do last week? Christian McCaffrey let me pull
it up. Christian McCaffrey last week
played at Arizona had 81 rushingyards, 2 touchdowns, 5

(26:59):
receptions, 40 receiving yards and A and a receiving touchdown.
So he scored three touchdowns last week.
So let me ask you, is that belowaverage, average or above
average Christian McCaffrey? Above average I would say.
OK, so you would say that that was a good week then?

(27:22):
Yeah. OK, so then this week let's
probably look at I think every, I think he's been hitting every
other week this year. It looks like it, yeah.
That's what I think the trend is.
So I'm going to man. It's kind of tough because it is
his former team, but it's not like that this is a get back

(27:44):
game, right? Because I mean, he's been in San
Fran for so long. I'm pretty sure they've already
faced already. So that's water on the bridge in
my opinion. I, I don't see him going off
just because of that simple factof I'm going to go with the
trend, I'm going to go with the grain and I'm going to say that

(28:06):
he does not go off this game. He has a average or below
average game. That's also like how they've
been doing. Like that's how the 49ers have
actually been winning too. Or or or Yeah, yeah, that's how
they've been winning. When McCaffrey has a good game,
they win. And it's kind of been in almost
an every other week thing ish, you know?

(28:30):
Yeah, you're right. He's he's did good last week,
the week before, not so good. Did good the week before that.
Week before that, not so good. Yeah.
So I'm going to ride the ride that and I'm going to go with
that. And no, he doesn't.
I'd I'd stay away from him this week.
What do? You think, here's the thing

(28:50):
about McCaffrey, even in these bad weeks, he's still getting,
you know, as I mentioned, 40 plus receiving yards in every
game this season. So I'm not necessarily saying
that he's going to get a touchdown tonight or not get a
touchdown or you know, the, the,the rushing yards, we'll talk
about that here in a second. But I think receiving yards, I

(29:12):
think he's going to get 40 plus receiving yards just based on
the data that I'm looking at. Do you think do you think he
gets that or just unsure about it?
I mean, I don't know. I'll, I'll, I'll, I'll go ahead.
You know, I'll agree with you onthat.
But he doesn't really have a monster game, maybe on the
ground or score a bunch of touchdowns or something, right?
Yeah, I, yeah. Because like, so the other thing

(29:36):
was his, his big, his bigger games have have come along when
Matt Jones has been at quarterback as well, you know,
so there hasn't been, I don't know, his weapons have also been
down as well. You know, I think they're just

(29:59):
kind of all sort sort of gettinghealthy as a team now coming
together. Now Ivan is saying that he's
thinking about Christian McCaffrey for longest reception.
I don't know exactly what that number is.
Ivan Butts, What I'll say is that the Panthers have allowed

(30:22):
before the week started, they allowed the 4th most 40 plus
yard receptions this season and the fifth most 20 plus yard
receptions this season. I'm looking on ESPN.com here,
I'm looking at Mccaffrey's receiving game log and I'm
looking at his longest catches. And if I'm reading this

(30:43):
correctly, his average is no, that can't be right.
But anyways, Ivan, he's had a 25yard receiving gain a 20, a
2920320739. So just kind of depends on what
that number is. But I think you're, you're, you

(31:05):
know, looking in the right direction there simply because
Carolina, once again, they've allowed the 4th most 40 plus
yard receptions and the fifth most 20 plus yard receptions
before the week started. And Carolina, they're pretty
much ranked the same in regards to passing yards allowed per

(31:27):
game and rushing yards allowed per game.
So just in, in that in that regard, they're not extremely
vulnerable. Now Carolina, I do want to just
mention that they ranked 26th before the week started in
opponent yards per completion and Christian McCaffrey ranks
95th in the NFL and yards per catch.

(31:48):
So opponent yards per completionin yards per catch is a little
bit different than what we just talked about with the 40 plus
yard receptions and stuff. You could look into, you know,
yards after the catch, all sortsof stuff.
So but those little those littlestatistics, I feel like make a
big difference. And then let's see here.

(32:10):
Bryce Young. Yeah, we we've talked about him
a little bit catching up with your your notes here.
He he blessed up. He says he loves the under 49
1/2 if it's still at that line. That's what I'm thinking too,
man. That's why you were thinking
saying or blessed up the yeah, or, and or I'm thinking, you

(32:33):
know, I think I think McCaffrey not only could get over those
those 44 1/2 receiving yards tonight or 40 plus, but also
even have the longest, you know,a longest reception too.
Did you say the longest reception or?
There's also been a lot of stuffgoing on in the NFL, right?

(32:53):
Like you'll see. And I'm not saying like
necessarily like does it mean something kind of, you know,
like sketches going on, but the players, especially on prime
time games that we're expecting to go off aren't really going
off. It's a lot of no namers.
So that's why I'm also saying no.

(33:16):
And I also think like there's a trend and a reason.
It's not because he can't go offevery week.
I think that Chris McCaffrey definitely can go off every
week. I think the reason that he's
going off every other week is because the team is holding him
back because if we not remember that he has a injury, well, not

(33:37):
even just that, but he has that the deal with his Achilles, his
arthritis through his in his Achilles or whatever it is, you
know what I'm saying? So that that probably has a a
deal with them holding him back on certain situations, like
protecting himself, you know, protecting him from it.

(34:00):
So I think there's a there's more of a reason.
And and I know like I've been seeing a lot of a lot of parlays
and stuff and especially with Southgate picking the no no
brainers, right. You mean obviously, like, yeah,
Derrick Henry's going to get in and then get down to the goal
line and they don't put Derrick Henry and they take him out the
game within 20 or Jameer Gibbs, they take him out.

(34:20):
They put in Montgomery. They weren't doing that weeks
one through 8 movies 1 through 7.
But now all of a sudden a lot ofteams have been transferring
into this different type of thing.
I I, that's why I'm saying like I'm I'm, I have a couple of
reasons why I'm, I'm, I'm staying away from McCaffrey this

(34:42):
game. Yeah, so.
You know I'm looking at red zonerush attempts right now inside
the 20 yard line for San Francisco.
Mccaffrey's had 74.5% of the rush attempts inside the 20 this
season. And then you know Brian Robinson

(35:05):
has 11.8% so he's this he's ranked second on San Francisco.
Brian Robinson does does and I noticed we'll get into the
anytime touchdowns here in just a a minute, but I noticed that
Brian Robinson's did score a touchdown in his only career
game against Carolina. So you know, maybe with the game

(35:28):
script that you're going with, they get down in that red zone
and and give it off to Brian Robinson.
Now, it's nice that we have one career game history to go off of
with Brian Robinson. We know that he's capable of
getting into the end zone against Carolina.
Not saying that Christian McCaffrey isn't, but we don't
have any history against Carolina with Christian

(35:50):
McCaffrey. So you're making me kind of
think about maybe Brian Robinsongetting into the end zone here
today because, yeah, I'm with you.
With the prime time games, especially, you know, it seems
like sometimes these these guys that are that we're expecting to
get in do not. It seems like a lot of these

(36:10):
prime time games to to go along with this comment here, let's
go. I don't know the, I don't know
the statistics on it, but I think a lot of the games have
been going under on prime time this year.
At least it feels that. Way and and go go with the
Buffalo game brainer James Cook 2 teddies on it yeah he's going
to get it get down the goal line.
What do they do They turn aroundand they either take them out or

(36:33):
they quarter. Can you sneak it with with
Allen, like a lot of these, theydid it last year with Saquon and
Hertz. Hertz end up getting 1111
touchdowns at the goal line. You know, so and, and a lot more
teams are doing this, are doing the QB sneak or the push, push,

(36:57):
the brotherly shove, you know, whatever you want to call it,
you know, so there's, there's, there's I have a couple of
reasons, man, trends are changing in the NFL.
It's not the same black and blueor, or black and white that it
used to be. You know, this year there's been
a a big wrinkle in the game. A lot more teams are going
forward on 4th even in their ownterritory earlier on in the

(37:21):
game. Crazy.
I'm just trying to find out. Yeah, for sure, man.
I'm just trying to find out where Carolina has been allowing
touchdowns a lot this season relative to other positions and
other teams in the league. And it seems like where Carolina
has been most vulnerable is touchdowns to rushing,

(37:45):
touchdowns to quarterbacks, running backs and receiving
touchdowns to tight ends. But you know, we'll get, we'll
talk about Kittle here in a second.
He has not had a touchdown in three career games against
Carolina. So that's why I'm a little iffy

(38:05):
about George Kittle tonight for an anytime touchdown at least.
Let me just go see real quick, you know, San Francisco red zone
targets Christian McCaffrey. Not only is he that main red
zone rushing threats for San Francisco when he's in the red
zone, but he's also the main targets and he's right there

(38:27):
with Jake Ferguson, Aman Ross, St.
Brown, 18 total targets in the red zone for Christian McCaffrey
in this season. And then it's Jawan Jennings and
then it's George Kittle. Really, I think those numbers
could be a little bit skewed though.
I would maybe if you guys have time, you guys have plenty of
time throughout the day to do your anytime touchdown research

(38:51):
and whatnot, listen to some other people.
But something that I would do islook at the three games that
Brock Purdy's played in this season and see who he's he has
targeted in the red zone becausehe may be a little bit more
favorable to George Kittle than Jawan Jennings.

(39:13):
I'm, I'm not quite sure I didn'thave the time to do that
research, but I absolutely thinkthat could be valuable
information and it shouldn't take, you know, too terribly
long. You'd have to go through each
game and and look to see when they're inside the 20 yard line.
Who is Brock Purdy throwing, throwing the ball to?

(39:37):
We'll see. Blessed up, he says Bryce is
going to go all over his going to go over his passing yards.
I love his attempts also, even though he hasn't gone over 33
1/2 only 3-4 times. But if you look at his attempts
versus 49ers giving up lately toquarterbacks and passing yards.
Let's go check out how many passing attempts the 49ers are
allowing to quarterbacks. Yeah, they've allowed the 7th

(40:00):
most passing attempts to quarterbacks this season also.
You know, San Francis, there could be some some teams that
maybe have played an extra game than San Francisco has out of
the teams that have allowed morepassing attempts.
So yeah, overall, they're below average there.

(40:24):
And then, you know, Bryce Young game log here.
JB, I'm going to look up something about Bryce Young real
quick. What are what are you thinking
about? And then I'll talk about maybe
that for a second some George Kittle or whatever.
What are you, what are you thinking about?
George Kittle? Who are you thinking is going to

(40:47):
be the standout guy for the San Francisco Receiving Corp?
Just what are your thoughts on that?
Ricky Pearsall, Jawan Jennings? George Kittle.
Christian McCaffrey. I don't think it'll be Jennings
and maybe maybe I'm wrong, MaybeI kind of think like Jennings
kind of shows up in like prime time games if I'm not mistaken.

(41:11):
I think it's the long time he really shows up, man, I know, I
know this. I think the Niners just said
they're not extending Brandon Iuke or they're not going to
give him as guaranteed or something like that.
So you know, there's some rose over there, Ricky Pearsall, the

(41:35):
up and rising guy. He'll probably be that that that
that go to guy, him and Kittle and that I I think it's just
them too, for real. And, and maybe and you know,
and, and I mean you can't take away, you know, CMC.

(41:57):
So I mean one of them 3 realistically.
I I think that's a pretty good look there too.
Ivan, the overpass attempts for Bryce Young, I'm not going to do
all of the math, but he's gone over the the 3rd 34 1/2 passing

(42:18):
attempts in three games this season. 3 out of how many has he
played? Eleven or three out of let's
see, 456789103 out of 10 games this season, he's had 35 plus
pass attempts. And I got good news for you if
you're you're thinking about doing that or if you've already
done it, the three games that hedid do that in, we're all on the

(42:42):
road. So he's going to be on the road
tonight. And yeah, if he, if he's
trailing in this game, I think like you're saying right here,
it's a perfect spot for him because he may be trailing in
this game. Yeah, I think that's worth
consideration, man. Sometimes, you know, the numbers
can look really, really good. And really, we shouldn't be

(43:05):
touching it. And sometimes the numbers don't
look so good. And it's a good spot like this,
I feel like. So he says Panthers have been
winning on the road lately. What do you what do I think
about Technic Millen? Yeah.
I mean, so it's tough for me, you know, this you're you're
usually tuning into the shows when you can.

(43:29):
It's not often that you don't. But it's tougher for me to pick
player props with rookies because I don't have any career
history to go. I have very little information
to work with. But I think he's in a good spot
here. You know, San Francisco has
allowed the third most receivingyards to wide receivers this
season, the second most receptions.

(43:51):
Ted McMillan over 66 1/2 receiving yards.
He's gone over that in five out of 11 games this season.
He's gone over that in his last game he's had 60 plus receiving
yards and seven out of 11 games this season he's had 50 plus in
the same amount that he's had 60plus.
So I don't think there's any value in taking him at 50 plus

(44:13):
instead of 60 plus because it's it's he's hit that at the same
rate this season and then he's had 45 plus receiving yards and
9 out of 11 games this season. Target Share for I'm pretty sure
he probably leads the Panthers in target share.
And yeah, he does by a long shot.

(44:42):
Leads the Panthers by a long shot.
So it really just comes back to do you think the Panthers are
going to win or lose? What did we say about Bryce
Young's passing yards? He has more passing yards per
attempt when his team wins or ties rather than loses.
So if he's having more passing yards per attempt, who's getting
those those receiving yards? You know, I think Ted Mcmillan's

(45:02):
being that that top guy has got to be got to be in the topic of
conversation here. Now.
I'm just a little scared about it because he's a rookie and and
I don't know if Carolina necessarily wins this game, but

(45:24):
you and JB it seem like you guysthink Carolina's got a real good
chance and kind of convincing me, you know, that maybe they
they do. I don't think it's a terrible
play, win or lose. I don't think it's a terrible
play going, you know, we're projecting.
Bryce Young has to throw the ball in this game.

(45:47):
San Francisco bad against defending against those wide
receiver receiving yards and receptions.
You know, I think the safest play out of any McMillan prop is
going to be the three plus receptions.
His true lines at 5 1/2 last that I checked, but he's had
three plus receptions in all 11 games this season.

(46:13):
And then if if we're talking about receiving yards, the 45 +
9 out of 11 games this season, Idon't feel like taking that line
down to 45 plus is is good enough, though I don't think the
payoff would be good enough at 9out of only going over that 9
out of 11 games this season. I think I'd rather stick with
the the 60 plus receiving yards for Ted McMillan.

(46:37):
He's gone over that in seven outof 11 games this season to keep
the odds decent. You know, so it's tough, man.
It's tough. And I'm also trying to look at a
game script where Carolina is ahead in this game and San

(46:58):
Francisco's trailing and playingcatch up, You know, in that
case, I think, excuse me. In that case, I think probably
Rico Dowdle would have to have agood game.
But I don't really see, I don't necessarily see that happening.
Yes, it's possible. If if Hubbard was out, then I

(47:20):
would think, OK, believe it or not, if Hubbard's out, I'm
actually thinking Rico Dowdell has a better chance to have a
great game. And maybe, you know, they just
run Carolina runs the ball out of the game.
And then in that case, I'd be a little bit more worried about
about the receiving prop here for Ted and McMillan, but I'd

(47:43):
have to lean towards him towardshim doing pretty good tonight,
Ivan, in regards to the receiving guards and and
receptions now taking over his true line.
I mean, yeah, that's, that's a little tricky it.
And that's really what the case with any player prop.
I feel like, you know, we saw Kelsey yesterday, I think his

(48:06):
receiving line was 53 1/2 and he's gone or he there was some
trend where he'd gone over that in the last six games or
something. And he he ended up just coming
up barely short on it. So yeah, these player props, I
think, you know, taking this line down here wouldn't be the

(48:30):
worst idea. Once again, 60 plus for Ted, 3
plus receptions. And then like San Francisco,
let's talk about maybe a potential touchdown catch here
for Ted McMillan. San Francisco about middle of
the pack looks like they haven'tbeen great at preventing wide

(48:52):
receivers from scoring touchdowns in this in this this
year. And you know, I want to see who
that main red zone target is forCarolina.
I'm sure it is Ted. And he's right up there, you
know, McMillan, right up there with Leggett.

(49:19):
Who would I pick to score a touchdown out of those two guys?
JB, do you have any, any idea onthat?
Like if you were to go with, youknow, Ted McMillan or Leget or
even Jalen Coker, maybe even thetight ends, Sanders, like who
would you go for? Or maybe Dowdell or somebody you

(49:42):
know, who would you go with for a a receiving touchdown for
Carolina? My first look, I think it's got
to be Ted McMillan. Receiving.
Man, Maybe even Sanders, man, because San Francisco's allowed
the second most receiving. Touchdowns. 0 touchdowns.

(50:05):
Sanders has 0 touchdowns. Oh, really?
Yeah. So.
That's right. But you know what's crazy about
Sanders? I'm, I'm glad you brought that
up, but what's crazy about Sanders is he has 8 red zone
targets and you know, Leget has 11, McMillan has 14.
So he's not like far behind those guys.
Well, Leget is, he's got 11 targets, right?

(50:27):
He's got 3 Tutties. Mcmillan's got 4 tutties.
You know, I don't know what they've been targeted at, but
and then they've been what gets it has 24 receptions and
McMillan has 54. So Mcmillan's really the number
one guy. I mean getting the but.
Looks like you get the number one targets.
It sounds like Leget's been doing maybe a little bit more

(50:49):
with less. Not not too much less, though.
They're about they're about even.
What do you know about these cornerbacks?
What do you, what do you know about these cornerbacks from San
Francisco? And if you don't know, you know,
that's fine. Maybe somebody else does that.
You guys can go watch. I mean, I don't know a whole lot
about, you know, like players ondefense in general.

(51:12):
I don't pay attention. I don't have time to pay
attention to a whole lot of that.
But, you know, does San Francisco have a lockdown
cornerback? Man, I'm looking, they've got 3
interceptions. In the year.
They've got 3 interceptions on the year.

(51:35):
Defense Whitman. Let's see, where's their DBS?
Because that's the thing, man, is if, if San Francisco does
have a solid cornerback that canlock McMillan down, then I'd be
looking for Leget. Mustafa nothing.

(51:59):
No, they don't have they ain't got Ward no more.
They don't have anybody that I know, man, that that whole, it
looks like that whole team is just like turned over almost.
I mean their their past defense is bad too.
Yeah, maybe very soon. Just takes advantage of it I

(52:20):
mean. That's what I would look up guys
just to just to see and you guysmight know if you know if San
Francisco does have a really good cornerback or not that
could lock, lock McMillan down. But that's going to be my first.
My first look is McMillan and that's just if and I'm going to
go off the bases that San Francisco doesn't have an

(52:41):
absolute lockdown cornerback. That'd be my first look
touchdown and then look at how long has.
Chris McCaffrey been a niner since like 21. 22/22/22 Excuse
me? Yeah, it's 20/22.
He he was traded. Yeah, actually.

(53:02):
So yeah, he has, He has. And.
Brock Purdy really hasn't. He's already my bad.
He already played Carolina. That was his like one of his
first games, his get back games.It was October A I'm pretty sure

(53:28):
2022 though, and it was like oneof the first games they they
played versus them or maybe theyplayed that game right before.
No, no, yeah, no, he was still Carolina.
Yeah. So it must have been like right
after he got traded. That's crazy.
I'm. Just.

(53:49):
Trying to forget that game. I'm trying to just gauge, like
San Francisco, how their defenses against rushing
touchdowns to running backs, receiving touchdowns to running
backs, and if Dowdell or Hubbardare capable of catching some
receiving touchdowns. Dowdell's only had one this
season receiving touchdown. Bryce Young has only had one

(54:15):
rushing touchdown this season and Chuba Hubbard has had two
receiving touchdowns this season.
Looks like San Francisco has been somewhat vulnerable to
receiving touchdowns to running backs.

(54:39):
Yeah, my first looks got to be big Melon for any time touchdown
for for Carolina and then we'll get.
And then I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say say Hubbard

(55:01):
and then Sanders would be up there the tight end for for
Carolina. But you mentioned that he
doesn't have a touchdown this year.
And that's yeah, that's concerning, man.
But yeah, give me McMillan from my favorite anytime for Carolina

(55:21):
and we'll talk about San Francisco here in just a second
for an anytime touchdown if we haven't already.
I know there's some there's a lot of players we haven't talked
about yet solid thing that said Carolina is the most profitable
team in the NFL so far this season, says blessed up P what
about Brock party for two passing touchdowns and over his
rushing yards Yeah, let's talk about party's passing yards.

(55:44):
So I've noticed that Purdy has had two plus passing touchdowns
in all three games that he's played in this season.
He's actually had three plus passing touchdowns in one out of
three games this season 2. So this would be the first game,
you know where if he doesn't get2 plus passing touchdowns.

(56:05):
This would be the first game where he doesn't get that if he
doesn't go over the 1 1/2 touchdown passes total.
Now, Carolina's done a good job this season at at limiting
passing touchdowns by quarterbacks and the fact that

(56:27):
San Francisco is projected to beup in this game.
I mean, this is a tough game to kind of like to dissect a little
bit here. You could go with the game
script where Purdy is playing, maybe from behind and throwing

(56:48):
passing touchdowns or gets up that way.
I mean, what do you think about it, JBI?
I'm unsure. I'm unsure about that.
I don't have a lot of information to work with.
He's never played a career game against Carolina, but he has had

(57:09):
two plus passing touchdowns in all three games this season.
Carolina's been OK at defending against passing touchdowns by
quarterbacks. If San Francisco's up in this
game, I mean, it's it's I think it's tough for me to say that
they're going to just throw a bunch of passing touchdowns if
they get up. You know, if they're up 14 to

(57:31):
nothing at halftime, 17 nothing at halftime.
I don't know, man. I'm just unsure about that.
I don't have enough information to really to really work with
it, to be honest with you, But that's the information that I do
have is that he's had two plus passing touchdowns in all three
games this season. I just want to say better as
yesterday, NFL early games wasn't so nice to me.

(57:52):
My day was bad. I was defeated by the books.
So your Cowboys rallied back, man.
Yeah. Let's go, man.
We got the Cowboys and Chiefs onThanksgiving.
I cannot wait for that game. JB, I'm not talking to you until
that game's over after this show.

(58:17):
I don't know. Just hey, we'll do we'll do a
breakdown on the Chiefs in in Cowboys game, but but who do you
think's going to win JB? Man, I think it's very it it, it
could, like you said, I think itcould be, you know, their Super
Bowl. But here's the deal, man, it's

(58:45):
hard for me to say that the Chiefs are not going to try to
go on some type of tear, you know, lock in.
They got, you know, build momentum.
They get they they, I said it very early on in the season,
beginning of the seasons. I rather my team get hot when
it's cold. Nazi cold when it's hot.

(59:07):
Yeah, but I think Jerry World may be air conditioned.
So no, I'm kidding, bro. Man, I I just, I got this
feeling that the Cowboys are going to be doing really good
and just break my heart right atdinner time.
You know what I mean? But at least I'll have some some

(59:28):
food to swallow that Cowboys lost down with.
But let's stick with the matter at hand here.
Let's let's keep on here with the, you know, Bryce Young
touchdown passes. He's throwing one plus touchdown
pass in seven out of 10 games this season.
He's throwing 2 plus touchdown passes and four out of 10 games,

(59:51):
3 plus touchdown passes and three out of 10 games this
season. I don't know if I touched on
Mccaffrey's receptions, but he'sgone over the 5 1/2 receptions
and eight out of 11 games this season.
But he's had five plus receptions and 10 out of 11
games this season. So I think 5 plus receptions

(01:00:13):
paired with. 40 plus receiving yards is is solid for McCaffrey,
but what I think's even a littlebit more solid is the three plus
receptions with 40 plus receiving yards for McCaffrey.
He's gone over those lines and all games this season and all

(01:00:35):
games that he's played and he's had at least 3 receptions in
every game this season and he's at at least 40 yards receiving
in every game this this season. Dowdle to be talk about his
receiving line and reception at all.

(01:00:56):
I think we did. Jawan Jennings Oh, I do have a
note here. You know, San Francisco before
the week started to allow the ninth most receiving yards to
running backs and the second most receptions.
If you guys do have Chuba Hubbard receiving yards props,

(01:01:16):
he does have more yards per catch on grass than turf in all
five career seasons that he's played in.
So I think that's a benefit if you're if you're thinking about
Hubbard receiving yards tonight.JA Juan Jennings over under 46
1/2 receiving yards. He's gone over that line in
three out of nine games this season.
He's gone over that line in two straight games.

(01:01:38):
He's had 40 plus receiving yardsand five out of nine games this
season. He's had 30 plus receiving yards
and six out of nine games this season.
He's gone over the 46 1/2 receiving line and only one out
of three games that Brock Purdy has played in this season.
Jawan Jennings had 1624 and 54 receiving yards in the three
games that Brock Purdy played inthis season.

(01:02:01):
Jawan Jennings had 45 receiving yards in his only career game
against Carolina and did not score a touchdown.
He said many more yards per catch in four out of five
seasons when his team wins or ties rather than loses.
He has more yards per catch on turf than grass in four out of
five seasons, which is a bad trend.
I'm seeing some bad trends here for Jawan Jennings, man.

(01:02:24):
And I would, I would absolutely have to take his line down to at
least at least 45 plus instead of the 46 1/2.
I mean, just just a hook a yard and a half a yard can make the
world of difference. We saw that yesterday with one
of the Bears receivers. I think it was O Doonese, right?

(01:02:46):
Yeah, over under 53 1/2 and he landed right on 53.
So you sometimes you might not think it matters and then you
look at your ticket and you're like, oh man, it's a half yard
or whatever. And I think that could be the
case here today with Jawan Jennings.
Ricky Pearsall over under 41 1/2receiving yards.
He's gone over that line in fourout of five games this season.

(01:03:08):
Much better than Jawan Jennings going over his line out of three
out of nine games this season. Pearsall has actually had 45
plus receiving yards in four outof five games this season.
He's had 55 plus receiving yardsin three out of five games this
season. He's had 100 plus receiving
yards in two out of five games this season.
And he also has gone over his 411/2 receiving yard line in two

(01:03:30):
out of the three games that brought Purdy play this season,
he had 108 receiving yards, 46 and then 0 receiving yards.
He's never played against Carolina.
When I was looking at Ricky Pearsall's grass versus turf
splits, Rd. versus home splits, I saw some inconsistencies
there. So there was nothing to telling
with that. He's just kind of up and down

(01:03:55):
whatever. But you know, he's had Piersall
has had one plus reception in all five games this season.
He's had three plus receptions and four out of five games this
season. He's actually had four plus
receptions and four out of five games this season.
And then with Brock Purdy, he had four receptions, 4
receptions and one reception. So I'm thinking Piersall out of

(01:04:18):
those two guys is the way I'd beleaning towards now.
Jawaan Jennings has gone over his 3 1/2 receptions in six out
of nine games this season, and he's gone over that in five
straight games. So that's respectable.
He's had two plus receptions in eight out of nine games this
season. But Jawaan Jennings has only
gone over his 3 1/2 reception line in one out of three games

(01:04:41):
that he's played with Brock Purdy this season.
And he only had two receptions in his only career game against
Carolina. So I'm thinking Ricky Pierce saw
is is statistically looking better tonight for for the
receiving yards and receptions. But let's not forget about
George Kittle here. Carolina has allowed the 4th
most receiving yards to tied ends this season.

(01:05:02):
Kittle over under 57 1/2 receiving yards.
He's gone over that line in two out of six games this season.
He has gone over that in two straight games.
He's had 40 plus receiving yardsand three out of six games this
season. He's had 30 plus receiving yards
and four out of six games this season.
I mean, you would have to take his his line way down to get a

(01:05:22):
good success rate. I mean, 25 plus receiving yards
for Kittle, 5 out of six games this season he's gone over the
57 1/2 true line. In one out of two games this
season that he's played with Brock Purdy, he had 25 and 67
receiving yards. He's gone over this line and
only one out of three career games against Carolina and did
not score a touchdown in either of those games.

(01:05:44):
In those three career games against Carolina, he had 2747
and 86 receiving yards. He as well had inconsistent
splits with the grass versus turf, home and away and stuff.
And then the reception is for him.
You know, I would feel more comfortable taking that from 4
1/2 to down to 3 1/2. He's he's only gone over the

(01:06:05):
four and a half and two out of six games this season and then
one out of two games that he's played with Brock Purdy.
He's gone over that line, but heI would learn more towards
Kittle going over the true reception line than the
receiving line tonight. But four plus I think is a
little bit more comfortable. He's gone over that in five out
of six games this season. But in history games against

(01:06:28):
Carolina, George Kittle has had five receptions, 5 receptions
and six receptions. So he's had at least 5
receptions in all three career games against Carolina, but the
fact that he only has it in two out of six games this season
makes me feel a little bit more comfortable taking that that
line down to 4 plus receptions for Kittle.
Carolina before the week startedalso was not specifically great

(01:06:51):
or terrible at defending againstthat tight end position.
In regards to receptions allowedbut receiving guards allowed.
They were fourth worst. But I would I would rather
attack Carolinas receptions in this game with George Kittle.
Maybe, maybe I don't know if if Tonges is going to get any any

(01:07:12):
run or anything like that. Maybe hit his receiving yards is
something to consider. I didn't I didn't see a line for
Tonges when I was looking this morning.
But yeah, I think that's the wayI'd go with Kittle.
Still, my favorite pass catcher is going to be, you know, for
San Francisco is going to be Ricky Pearsall and and Christian

(01:07:33):
McCaffrey. I've already gone over
everybody's pretty much receiving props for the most
part for San Francisco. One other guy I want to touch on
here is the receiving props for Sanders, the tight end for
Carolina. San Francisco, before the week
started, allowed the 10th most receiving yards to tight ends
and the fourth most receptions. Sanders has gone over the 17 1/2

(01:07:54):
receiving line in five out of eight games this season.
He's gone over that in two straight games.
He's had 10 plus receiving yardsin six out of eight games this
season. So yeah, I'd feel a little bit
more comfortable with Sanders atthat 10 plus receiving yard
line. But still, 5 out of eight games
this season going over the 17 1/2 isn't bad.
And then I didn't see him have any career history against San

(01:08:19):
Francisco and I didn't. I saw some inconsistencies with
his grass versus turf splits, home versus Rd. splits.
And then his reception line 2 1/2.
He's gone over that 2 1/2 reception line in half of his
games this season. He's gone over that in two
straight games. He's had two plus receptions in
six out of eight games this season.

(01:08:39):
He's had one plus reception in seven out of eight games this
season. And really, I mean, he's had 4
plus receptions in three out of eight games a season.
If some if for some reason you want to do Sanders with the alt
reception line for some reason, Yeah.
He's had four plus receptions inthree out of eight games this

(01:08:59):
season. Did we talk about Brock Purdy
rushing yards at all? I'm not.
I don't think we did. Sorry JB, I'm just kind of
rambling right now, but I just, I want to get these statistics
out there a little bit. And I know we've already talked
about your favorite pass catchers here for San Francisco.

(01:09:21):
Brock Purdy rushing yards. Now Carolina has allowed the 4th
fewest rushing yards in footballbefore the week started.
Brock Purdy over under 9 1/2 rushing yards.
He has gone over that line in two out of three games this
season. He's actually had 13 plus
rushing yards in two out of three games this season, and
although he's technically playeda game against Carolina, he

(01:09:42):
really hasn't. He had one rushing attempt for a
negative rushing yard in his only career game.
But here's the thing about Purdy, he has more rushing yards
per carry at home than on the road in all all career seasons
that he's had, so that's a good trend for him.

(01:10:03):
He's also had more yards per carry in games that his team
loses then when his team wins orties.
So if you think Carolina gets the win tonight, Brock Purdy,
you know, once again, he has more yards per carry in games
that he loses then wins or ties in all four career seasons that
he's had. And then also he has more

(01:10:25):
rushing yards per carry on grassthan turf and every season that
he's played in, except this season, which is a good trend
for him because this game is being played on grass.
So even if San Francisco wins this game, I think there is a
possibility and Brock Purdy goesover these these these rushing
yards, but he's going up againstonce again, Carolina ranked 4th

(01:10:46):
best in the NFL and preventing rushing yards before the week
started to quarterbacks. I would feel more comfortable
with this if if San Francisco loses the game.
What do you think? JB, do you have any any thoughts
about whether or not Brock Purdyhas 10 plus rushing yards?

(01:11:09):
Oh, Brock pretty probably has 10plus rushing yards.
I seem if if they make him uncomfortable or whatever.
I mean, he's kind of man, I don't know.
He is coming back from an injury, so probably not.
It's probably on the safe side. He doesn't, but I don't know.
He is that kind of quarterback though.
He's not afraid to take off and run.

(01:11:32):
I'm going to say no. I'm going to say no.
Now Carolina, we've talked aboutChristian Mccaffrey's receiving
props. Here we are with the rushing
props. Carolina has allowed the 7th
most rushing yards to running backs before the week started.
Christian McCaffrey over under 72 1/2 rushing yards.
He's only gone over that line inthree out of 11 games.

(01:11:54):
This season he's had 60 plus rushing yards and four out of 11
games. This season he's had 55 plus
rushing yards and six out of 11 games games this season he's had
50 plus rushing yards and eight out of 11 games.
This season he's only gone over the 72 1/2 rushing line and one
out of three games this that this season that Brock Purdy has
played in at 4969 and 81 rushingyards.

(01:12:17):
He's never played against Carolina.
His splits were inconsistent. JB, you're feeling like
McCaffrey goes under those for rushing yards tonight 72 1/2.
You think he get he gets less than that or over.
McCaffrey 72 1/2 rushing yards. I think he gets about.
I think he gets that. I think he gets that.

(01:12:38):
You do. Yeah, I think he gets that.
I don't think he gets over that.I don't think he like, you know,
I think that's just like an average McCaffrey, you know, 70,
like 7072 rushing yards. I would feel more, I would feel
more comfortable with McCaffrey at 50 plus rushing yards, but I

(01:12:58):
wouldn't even feel necessarily comfortable with that because
he's only still gone over that and eight out of 11 games this
season, which is OK. But usually when you take these
alternate lines down, sometimes you're getting a 90% success
rate, 100% success rate. You're you're still looking at 8
out of 11 games this season. So I'm going to go with, you

(01:13:20):
know, McCaffrey just more so that pass catching back tonight
and then Brian Robinson junior. I think this is probably my
favorite, my favorite player to go over his rushing yards for
the 49ers over under 23 1/2. He's gone over that line in five
out of 11 games this season. I wondered why he wrote

(01:13:44):
something crazy in my notes here.
He didn't have a target or carryin one game.
He also didn't have a carry in another game.
So so it sounds like it's he's really gone over that line in
five out of nine games this season and then he's had at
least 5 carries in three straight games.
And he's also gone over the 23 1/2 rushing yards in three

(01:14:07):
straight games. He's had 20 plus rushing yards
in eight out of 11 games this season, but it's more like 8 out
of nine games because he didn't have a carry in two games and he
had 71 rushing yards and a touchdown in his only career
game against Carolina. He has also more yards per carry
at home than on the road in all four career seasons that he's

(01:14:27):
played in. So this is going to be my
favorite guy to go over his rushing line tonight.
Brian Robinson, junior, over 23 1/2 rushing yards.
Think he's a good sleeper for a touchdown anytime touchdown
scorer. He does have a career touchdown
against Carolina. He's gone over that rushing yard
way over in his only career gameagainst Carolina.

(01:14:48):
Now his role was probably a little bit different back then,
but I do like adding that. I think it's a good
complimentary statistic going with, you know, his current in
season data too. So there is that.
And you know, from my understanding, JB Sky Moore is

(01:15:14):
the punt returner and kick returner for for San Francisco.
Yeah. What do you think about him,
man? Do you think the.
Trash. Yeah, you spent four years with
Kansas City and Mahomes and you only caught 2 pass and
touchdowns. Thank you for the stand of the

(01:15:36):
Sanders stat, that was interesting.
Yeah, I'm not bored. I don't like it.
Yeah, JB said. Trash.
But did we did I give out a Sam for my favorite San Francisco?

(01:15:59):
So yeah, I'd be McMillan for Carolina San Francisco.
I'm thinking Brian Robinson junior for an anytime touchdown.
What about wide receiver touchdowns allowed by Carolina?

(01:16:21):
They they've done pretty good atlimiting those out of the
season. I mean, the, the standard play
is McCaffrey, McMillan, the, the, the Mcdouble, the Mcdouble,

(01:16:44):
McMillan, McCaffrey. To make temple.
Yeah, Robinson would be the senior play here.
Give me. Give me a Mcdouble.
Give me a Mcdouble on this one. The the McCaffrey and McMillan.

(01:17:06):
But yeah, Brian Robinson, man, Ithink, I think that's a good
consideration here on a prime time game.
We've talked about him a little bit earlier in the show.
Any other thoughts on this game?JBI think that about does it for
me. No, no, Nope.

(01:17:28):
Coker I don't know if I I don't know if I mentioned anything
about Coker, Jalen Coker, but he's had let's see, he's gone
over his receiving line and two out of five games this season,
30 plus receiving yards and two out of five games this season,
20 plus receiving yards and three out of five games this
season, 9 plus receiving yards and four out of five games this
season. And then his reception line, 2
1/2, he's gone over that in three out of five games this

(01:17:50):
season, 3 plus receptions in three out of five games this
season, which is the same as over 2 1/2.
And then one plus reception in four out of five games this
season. And yeah, that's about all all I
got, man. So any, any last words?

(01:18:12):
What? What's your final score
prediction, JB? 26 No 2427, Carolina.
What'd you say, 2724? Carolina.

(01:18:33):
Yeah, mine's going to be 24 to 20.
San Francisco 2420 But yeah, thank you guys.
Thanks for joining today. We should be doing a show.
I, I should be doing my next show on Thursday, Thursday

(01:18:56):
morning. My schedule could change.
I may do a show Wednesday instead, but right now I'm
planning on Thursday morning andthen just definitely one of
let's see, what's the latest on Mayfield injury?
Is he out for the year? I have a futures bet with the

(01:19:18):
Panthers winning the NFC South says I've been, hey, what's
going on, Carlos? A field goal win.
Let me try to find, let me try to find something real quick.

(01:19:39):
Ivan, injury update for Baker. Have you heard anything on that,
JB? On who?
Baker Mayfield, Ivan's are blessed up.
He's asking about, I mean, he's going to have an MRI today, it

(01:20:02):
looks like. So it looks like we're going to
know a little bit more today. I've are blessed up.
Pi know this. It does not look good, I'll tell
you that. Yeah, it doesn't.
It doesn't look good from what I'm just seeing here, but we

(01:20:25):
should have some more clarification on that maybe
later on today. But.
Because if you don't remember, that's the reason why he that
shoulder is the reason why he was removed from his duties in
Cleveland and shipped off and released.
But it's because they didn't know what was up with his

(01:20:47):
shoulder. He had such a bad problem with
his shoulder needed surgery. He was not thrown inside as well
as as well. So we'll see.
I mean, it obviously caused him enough pain for them to take him
out. Any other any other words here
JB? I just want to say thank you

(01:21:11):
once again to our supporters, followers and subscribers.
We really appreciate you guys. Good luck today and a special
thank you to our sponsors. Bet US mybookie.agwalmart.com,
open goal, the MLB and NFL pro shops and W energy drinks.

(01:21:31):
So Yep, take care guys. I'll see you guys either
Wednesday or Thursday, but I'm planning on Thursday.
If it changes I'll I'll let you guys know, but.
Thursday is Thanksgiving. Yep.
All. Right later.

(01:21:53):
Take care, everybody. Good luck, may not move.
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