NFL week 13 Thanks giving special

NMP - better bettors breaks down the week 13 thanksgiving edition

Episode Transcript

(00:26):
None. None.

(01:26):
All right, it might help if the the mics unmuted there.
What's going on? Not Move Podcast, Not Move
Nation. Welcome to the Not Move podcast.
We have 3 football games on today.
I'd like to give a thank you to the supporters, subscribers,
followers. We really appreciate you guys.
Also, a special thank you to oursponsors.

(01:48):
Bet US mybookie.agwalmart.com, Open Goal, the MLB and NFL Pro
shops, and W energy drinks. All right, let's get into it.
The first game that we have on today is the Green Bay Packers
and Detroit Lions. First of all, I saw an

(02:09):
interesting Thanksgiving statistic said that home teams
are 100 and 22114 and 12 all time on Thanksgiving.
All right, but that's just in the NFL total, not not with the
Packers and Lions, but the Packers do lead the all time
series, 100 and 778 and seven against Detroit.

(02:34):
These teams have played on this exact date four times throughout
history In Detroit is up 3 to one in the all time series on
this exact date. Jared Goff, quarterback for the
Detroit Lions has a seven and four career record which
includes the playoffs against the Packers.

(02:56):
Jordan Love has a three and fourcareer record against Detroit.
The Lions are 3845 and two all time on Thanksgiving.
Green Bay is 1620 and two all time on Thanksgiving.
So both of these teams do have losing records on Thanksgiving
Day. Jared Goff has a one in three
career record on Thanksgiving Day and Jordan Love has a 2 and

(03:18):
O career record on Thanksgiving.Josh Jacobs also has a 2 and O
record on Thanksgiving. Last said I checked, Detroit's
favored by 2 1/2 and the over under is 48 1/2.
Six out of the last 10 meetings between these teams have had a
combined total of 49 plus points.

(03:39):
And then the last 10 games that the Lions beat the Packers, they
won those games by three plus points.
I mentioned that the spreads -2 1/2 in favor of Detroit.
Yeah, Detroit has. Each time that they've won is
the Packers. And their last 10 victories

(04:00):
against the Packers, they've wonby three plus points.
Detroit is also better against the spread this season.
They're six and five against thespread.
Green Bay's four and seven. I don't think you know, Green
Bay has played as a Rd. underdogthis season, but Detroit's three
and two against the spread as a home favorite.

(04:22):
All in all, you know, Detroit is6 and five to the over.
Green Bay's five and six to the over.
So in that regard, it's pretty close.
Green Bay carries a better record into this meeting.
They are on A2 game-winning streak.
They won their last game on thispast Sunday against Minnesota 23

(04:43):
to 6. And then they also beat the
Detroit Lions in week 127 to 13,which is who they play today.
Then Detroit, they're seven and four.
They're on A1 game win streak, which they beat the Giants in
overtime a few days ago. And let's get into the good

(05:08):
stuff here. Overall, I would probably lean
towards Detroit having a slight passing advantage in this game.
Green Bay's got a pretty good pass defense.
In regards to yards allowed per game, they ranked 5th.
Detroit ranks 15th in that category.
So Green Bay does limit passing yards better, but Detroit

(05:30):
accumulates more passing yards per game than Green Bay does.
Detroit ranks 8th. Green Bay ranks 14th rushing
advantage. I'd give Detroit a slight
rushing advantage as well in this game.
Green Bay a big third down conversion advantage.
Green Bay slight red zone conversion advantage.

(05:53):
Hey, how's it going? Happy Thanksgiving.
Thanks for stopping in Green Bay.
Slight red zone attempts per game advantage.
I don't really give AI didn't really see a clear sacks on the
quarterback advantage, but I I would lean towards Detroit in
that category. Hey, Ashley.
And then I'd give Detroit a slight turnover differential

(06:15):
advantage. All right, so let's get into
some props here. Let me look for something that
kind of stuck out to me in this game, you know, David
Montgomery, Green Bay. Yeah, I'm good.

(06:38):
I'm good. How are you?
Oh, you're a Bears fan, Erica. Right on.
Yeah, they've been, they've beenplaying great this season.
So you know, Green Bay, they, they ranked 3rd and rushing
yards allowed per game. Excuse me, they ranked 6th and
rushing yards allowed per game. Detroit ranks 3rd and rushing

(06:58):
yards per game. Also, Detroit ranks 19th in
passing play percentage. So they call a higher percentage
of rushing plays relative to theother teams in the league
lasted. I checked David Montgomery over
under 36 1/2 rushing yards. He's gone over that line in five

(07:21):
out of 11 games this season. He's had 30 plus rushing yards
in the same amount of games thisseason, 5 out of 11.
He's had 25 plus rushing yards and seven out of 11 games this
season. And he's had 20 plus rushing
yards and 9 out of 11 games thisseason.
If you're looking for 100% success rate with Montgomery,

(07:41):
he's had 10 plus rushing yards and all 11 games this season.
He has scored one plus touchdownin six out of 12 career games
against Green Bay and he actually had a game where he had
a three touchdown game against Green Bay.
He's had a touchdown in two out of four all time thanks

(08:03):
Thanksgiving Day games and he even scored one against Green
Bay. And he has gone over this
rushing line in 10 out of 12 career games against Green Bay.
He had 18 and 25 rushing yards in games that he didn't.

(08:24):
So you know, although Green Bay is good against the run and
they've limited running backs pretty well this season, they
they ranked 12th best and limiting those rushing yards to
running backs this season. I got to lean towards Montgomery
going over these rushing yards and potentially scoring a

(08:44):
touchdown in this game. We can go see where where Green
Bay is most vulnerable as a defense in allowing touchdowns.
So they've limited the rushing touchdowns pretty good to
running backs this season. So, you know, in that regard,

(09:05):
it's a little, it's a little concerning there.
Let me go check wide receiver statistics real quick.
I'm looking at fantasy.nfl.com here.
They've allowed eight. They've done pretty good at just
limiting touchdowns all around to every position.

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But you know, I like the fact that David Montgomery has scored
at least one touchdown in six out of 12 career games against
Green Bay and the fact that he has a touchdown in two out of
four all time Thanksgiving Day games.

(09:52):
And I like the fact that he's gone over that rushing total,
that 36 1/2 rushing line and 10 out of 12 career games against
against the Packers. I'm a I'm sadly a Dallas Cowboy
fan. Yeah, we play.

(10:13):
We play today. But I'll get into that game here
pretty pretty soon. Hey, happy Thanksgiving, too.
Blessed up P Hey, you as well. Thank you man Good luck today.
If you're making any plays, you know, ultimately I want you guys
to make your own decisions when it comes to you know, the plays

(10:37):
and everything, but I'll do the best I can to give you some some
quality information here and if you have any questions yeah, I
just started the live and if youguys have any questions, feel
free to ask. All right, but since we're
talking about rushing props for Detroit, let's just touch on
Jameer Gibbs Real quick. Lasted I checked over under 71

(10:59):
1/2 rushing yards. He's gone over that line and
five out of 11 games this season.
He's had 60 plus rushing yards and seven out of 11 games this
season. He's had 50 plus and eight out
of 11 games this season, but he's gone over the 71 1/2
rushing line in zero out of fivecareer games against Green Bay.

(11:24):
So that's a concern for me. You know, zero out of five
career games he's he's had 72 plus rushing yards against Green
Bay and he's coming off of that monstrous performance against
the Giants just a few days ago. You know, so it's hard to

(11:45):
imagine that he'll he'll replicate that.
I mean, he is a very good player, but I don't like that
history against Green Bay, Although he has scored a
touchdown in two out of five career games against Green Bay.
If you're looking for something where he's had good success
against Green Bay with, he's had40 plus rushing yards and four

(12:08):
out of five career games againstthem.
Also, Jameer Gibbs has more rushing yards per carry in games
that he wins or ties rather thanloses in all three career
seasons that he's played in. So if you'd like the Lions today
to win this game, I think that there is a better chance for

(12:31):
Gibbs to go over those 71 1/2 rushing yards if the Lions win.
But yeah, Montgomery is going tobe my favorite rushing prop.
For for. The the Lions, I do want to talk
about Jared Goff real quick. I mean over under 0.5 rushing
yards. So the question is, will Jared

(12:53):
Goff, will Jared Goff get a rushing yard today?
Now, Green Bay has limited rushing yards to quarterbacks
better than any, better than anyteam in the league.
And then Jared Goff has only hadone plus rushing yard in four
out of 11 games this season. He's gone over this line in

(13:17):
seven out of 11 career games against Green Bay.
He's actually had five plus rushing yards in seven out of 11
career games against Green Bay. He does not have a rushing
touchdown in 11 career games against Green Bay.
So if you were thinking about maybe Jared Goff getting into

(13:37):
the end zone today, I mean, anything can happen, right?
Any given Sunday, in this case Thursday.
But zero out of 11 career games isn't something that I'm
specifically looking to targets.But he has more yards per carry
and games that his team loses rather than wins or ties in

(13:59):
every season except one. And this is his 10th season.
So excuse me if you think Detroit is going to lose today,
I would think Goff gets that onerushing yard based on that
trend. I think, you know, the fact that
he's gone over that line and seven out of 11 career games
against Green Bay is solid. But that's just if you'd like

(14:22):
the Lions to lose is is when I would lean towards that.
But let's talk about Josh Jacobsa little bit in this rushing
attack for the Green Bay Packers.
Green Bay really likes to run the ball.
They call the fifth highest rushing play percentage out of

(14:46):
any team in the league. So they they're really focused
on that run. And but you know, Detroit, they
rank 15th and passing yards allowed per game, but the
rushing yards allowed per game, they rank 11th.
So just based on rushing versus passing yards a lot per game,
their defense is better at preventing that rushing attack.

(15:10):
And you know, that's where GreenBay really likes to zone in.
I'm not saying they're a terrible passing team by any
means, but you know, they're more run focused and you know,
Detroit's done a good job at limiting running back rushing
yards this season as well. They ranked 9th best, but I like

(15:32):
Josh Jacobs today. Maybe not for the rushing yards,
let's talk about it. But I really I'm thinking about
the anytime touchdown for Josh Jacobs.
Looks pretty appetizing today. Looks like we're getting JB
Sport talk in here with us. Josh Jacobs has gone over the 58
1/2 rushing yard line in six outof 10 games this season.

(15:55):
He's had 55 plus rushing yards in seven out of 10 games.
He's had 40 plus rushing yards and eight out of 10 games this
season. He's had 30 plus rushing yards
in all 10 games this season, buthe's gone over that 58 1/2
rushing total in all five careergames that he's played against
Detroit. He has at least 61 rushing yards

(16:16):
in each game against Detroit in his yeah against Detroit in his
five game history. He's also scored one plus
touchdown in four out of five career games against Detroit.
He's had two plus touchdowns in two out of five career games.
He even had a three touchdown game against Detroit before.
And also, Josh Jacobs has a touchdown in two out of two

(16:40):
career Thanksgiving Day games, Ithink.
With the. History here.
This is the best history that I've saw out of any player
today. The fact that he's, you know,
gone over that 58 1/2 rushing total in five career games
against Detroit, has had a touchdown in four out of five
career games against Detroit, and has had a touchdown in both

(17:02):
Thanksgiving Day games that he'splayed in.
Think that's awesome? Let's see betters.
I've seen a few videos saying that favorites to cover or win
been a trend since the early 2000s.
Is this? Is this a good way to look at
today's games? Favorites to cover or win been a

(17:25):
trend. You know, there's been, I'm not
sure when I'm looking at trends,I'm looking at big lopsided
trends. You know, maybe where a team
has, you know, lost 20 straight games on a specific date or a

(17:48):
player has gone under a certain prop 20 different times.
The bigger the sample size and the bigger the gap, you know,
the, the more I, I like that trend, you know, so that's what
I really look for in trends. So it just depends on, you know,

(18:08):
what those numbers are. Golf has been making you mad
lately. Yeah, yeah.
And you know, we can we can talkabout injury updates too.
You know, overall, I didn't see too many big time injuries today
or weather concerns. Now Jacobs, what he missed, he

(18:33):
missed last game. So that's The thing is, you
know, making sure that Josh Jacobs isn't limited in any
capacity right now. I don't see any injury
designation for Josh Jacobs. He had a knee issue, so he sat
out last week. And, you know, he looks good to

(18:57):
go here. And I'm seeing that he should
get his usual workload in this game today.
And I think, you know, people may be a little skeptical about
picking a player that is coming off of an injury personally,
that's kind of like that's kind of when I like these these
players, especially the high profile names.

(19:20):
It's when it's their first game back from injury.
But you know, I think I think helooks pretty good today.
JB, if you if you're with me, man, what what are you thinking
today, man? Who do you think has a better
game? Jameer Gibbs, Dave Montgomery,

(19:40):
Josh Jacobs. And if you're not there yet,
that's OK too. Well, it to me, I think Jamir
Gibbs probably has a better day.Yeah.
I mean, they're in Detroit. It is Detroit's day, you know,

(20:00):
this is, this is, this is Detroit's Super Bowl, you know?
So I, I don't know, I think George Jacobs does have a good
day. I'm not gonna I I think.
I think that he, he, I think he does everybody.
I think this is Jamar Jacobs day.
I mean Jamar Gibbs day. Yeah, I just, you know, I really

(20:24):
just don't like Gibbs history against the Packers.
I like Josh Jacobs history a lotbetter.
So out of all the running backs,man, Josh Jacobs has to be first
on my list here going over the rushing yards and an anytime
touchdown and then it's going tobe David Montgomery.

(20:44):
I do like Montgomery today goingover that 36 1/2 rushing line
and an anytime touchdown as well.
And then Jameer Gibbs would be my third option today, even
though I think Jameer Gibbs is the best one out of those 3.

(21:05):
You know, just speaking about the entirety of the season, I
think Jameer Gibbs is the most talented.
Let's also talk about Jameer Gibbs and David Montgomery's
pass catching abilities because these guys, man, they've put up
some pretty good numbers, especially Gibbs in that, in

(21:29):
that passing game. Now Green Bay ranks 9th best in
the NFL and receiving yards allowed to running backs, but
they have allowed the eighth most receptions to running
backs. So we'll look at both, but just
based on that alone, maybe receptions is going to be the

(21:50):
way to go with either of these running backs.
Jameer Gibbs over under 35 1/2 receiving yards.
He's only gone over that line inthree out of 11 games this
season. He's had 30 plus receiving yards
and seven out of 11 games this season.
He's had 10 plus receiving yardsand only 8 out of 11 games this

(22:11):
season. Usually when we take a line from
35 1/2 down to 10, sometimes we get a 100% success rate, but
he's only gone over that 10. He's only had 10 plus receiving
yards and eight out of 11 games this season and he has.
He has never gone over that receiving line in five career

(22:31):
games against Green Bay. So I am concerned about not just
his his rushing history against Green Bay, but I'm worried about
this receiving history too. Now he's had 30 plus receiving
yards in two out of five career games against Green Bay, 10 plus
receiving yards in all five career games against Green Bay.

(22:52):
And he's had more receiving yards in game, more receiving
yards per catch in games that his team wins or ties rather
than loses in all three career seasons.
So if you like Green Bay today or not Green Bay, if you like
Detroit today, I would give Gibbs a better likelihood to go

(23:14):
over those receiving yards. But even if they do win, man,
it's hard for me to go with something that he hasn't
accomplished in five career games against Green Bay.
He does rank second on the Lionsin target share and he actually
ranked second on Detroit in red zone target share.
But, you know, we'll talk about that a little bit more later.

(23:35):
The maybe anytime touchdowns in red zone conversion rates and
stuff. But yeah, his over under.
Well, let me back up real quick.He has also gone under those 35
1/2 receiving yards. Jamir Gibbs, he's gone under
that in two Thanksgiving Day games.

(23:58):
Throughout his throughout his history, he's played in two
Thanksgiving Day games and he's never gone over those receiving
yards in those Thanksgiving Day games.
So I'm concerned about him goingover that today, especially
considering Green Bay ranks 9th best in receiving yards allowed
to running backs. I'd have to lean towards the
under on Jameer Gibbs, the 35 1/2 receiving yards, which is

(24:20):
pretty crazy because throughout the entirety of the season, I
really like Jameer Gibbs and Montgomery when it comes to
receiving yards and receptions. But let's talk about Gibbs's
reception lasted. I checked over under 4 1/2.
He's gone over that line in fourout of 11 games this season.
And if you're thinking about taking that hook off and getting
it down to 4 plus receptions, he's gone over that the same

(24:43):
amount of times. He's had four plus receptions in
the same amount of games as he has five plus receptions this
season. So I don't really see a lot of
value taking it down to 4 plus. But if you get it at 3 plus,
you're looking at 8 out of 11 games this season.
Jameer Gibbs has had three plus receptions, 2 plus receptions in
10 out of 11 games. He's had one plus reception in

(25:04):
all games and then he's gone over the four and a half
reception line and two out of five career games against Green
Bay. He's had four plus receptions
and four out of five career games against Green Bay and he's
never gone over those reception,the reception line in two career
game or two career Thanksgiving Day games.

(25:27):
So I'm just a little skeptical about Jameer Gibbs in in general
today accomplishing the receiving yards, the the rushing
yards, the receptions and normally I really like Jameer
Gibbs. Let's talk about Montgomery a
little bit here. Montgomery over under 11 1/2

(25:47):
receiving yards. He's gone over that in a 5 out
of 11 games this season. He's had 10 plus receiving yards
and seven out of 11 games this season and he's gone over this
line in nine out of 12 career games against Green Bay.
So 75% of his games, and that's a good sample size, 75% of his
games that he's played against Green Bay throughout history,
he's had 12 plus receiving yards.

(26:11):
He's had 10 plus receiving yardsand 10 out of 12 career games
against Green Bay. And Montgomery has had more
yards per catch on the road thanat home and six out of seven
career seasons, which is a bad trend since, you know, since
Detroit's playing at home today.But I'm thinking maybe the, you

(26:34):
know, the the receptions may be the way to go here with
Montgomery. He's gone over the 1 1/2
reception line in five out of 11games this season.
He's gone over that 9 out of 12 career games against Green Bay.
He's had at least two receptionsand three out of four all time

(26:55):
Thanksgiving Day games out of receiving yards and receptions
between Gibbs and Montgomery. I would have to lean them.
The one that I like the most is going to be the Montgomery over
1 1/2 receptions and if you can get it at one plus reception.
He's gone over that in 10 out of11 games this season and 11 out

(27:18):
of 12 career games against GreenBay.
Let's see here. I love Monty for 9 1/2 receiving
yards, betters and two receptions.
Yeah, I'm thinking so too, man. I'm liking it too.
Blessed up P, The reception's been plus money at 2.
Not sure if it still is as blessed up he.

(27:39):
Yeah, I mean that that sounds good to me.
Once again, I think another big factor in this is that the
Packers have limited receiving yards to running backs very well
this season. They ranked 9th best, whereas
they ranked eighth worst in receptions allowed to running
backs. So I think, you know, Montgomery
over the 1 1/2 receptions is theway I'd like to go there now.

(28:04):
OK, let's see what I I blessed up, he says.
I think wide receivers for GreenBay feast today versus Lions.
I'm just torn on which one, Watson, Watson or or Dubs.
JB, which way are you leaning towards this question?
I'll get into some statistics here in just a second, but who
would you say has the better chance to eat today against the

(28:26):
Detroit Lions? Past defense?
They do rank 12th worst in receiving yards allowed to wide
receivers. Do you think it's going to be
Watson or or Dobbs? Oh man, if Watson can stay
healthy, do the game, if he didn't have a concussion, I'd go

(28:48):
Watson. Bill Watson.
You lean towards Watson. So let's let's talk about it
here. Watson over under 56 1/2
receiving yards. He's gone over this line in two
out of five games this season. Also, let me let me check one

(29:14):
other thing real quick. So I want to talk about big
plays, right? Explosive plays.
I think explosive plays. The correct terminology for that
is 25 plus rushing or rushing gains allowed or passing gains
allowed. But I'm going to stick with the
the 20 plus and or 40 plus. OK, Detroit has allowed the

(29:39):
fifth most 20 plus yard receptions this season.
Christian Watson has had 520 plus yard receptions in five
games this season, so he's averaging one per game, whereas
Dobbs has had 820 plus yard receptions in 11 games this
season. And let's not forget about

(29:59):
Matthew Golden. Last I checked, Matthew Golden
is questionable with a wrist issue so that that would be an
injury update that I'd be looking up near game as we get
closer to game time. Still don't have any clarity on
that. But just based on these big
plays, Christian Watson, you know, he's, he's doing good this

(30:22):
season. OK, so Watson over under 56 1/2
receiving yards, He's gone over that line in two out of five
games this season. He's had 50 plus receiving yards
in two out of five games this season as well.
But he's had 45 plus receiving yards in all five games this
season. He's gone over this line, the 56

(30:46):
1/2 in three out of six career games against Detroit.
He's had 35 plus receiving yardsand four out of six career games
against Detroit. He's had 25 plus and five out of
six career games against Detroit.
He's had a touchdown in two out of six career games against the
Lions. And he has more yards per catch
on the road than at home in three out of four career

(31:08):
seasons, which is a good trend. And he has more yards per catch
when his team loses rather than wins or ties in three out of
four career seasons. So if you like the Lions to win
this game, I would have to give Christian Watson a bigger
likelihood of going over these receiving yards today.
But even if the Packers win, I still am thinking he he gets

(31:34):
there. You know, he's played in two
career Thanksgiving Day games and he had 67 receiving yards in
94, which both of those games hewent over that 56 1/2 receiving
yard line. And you know, I wish he had a
little bit better history against Detroit, but he is not
terrible. You know, he's gone over that

(31:55):
line in half of his career gamesagainst them and with his big
play catching ability, you know,I'm thinking that this is
probably the way to go Watson. But let me look at Dobbs real
quick. Over under 44 1/2 receiving
yards, he's going over that linein a higher percentage of games
this season. Then Watson has gone over his

(32:16):
line. Dobbs has gone over his line in
six out of 11 games this season he's had 40 plus receiving
yards. In seven out of 11 games this
season, he's had 35 plus. In seven out of 11 games, he's
had 30 plus and seven out of 11.So you're, you know, if you're
thinking about taking it from 441/2 down to 30 plus, I mean

(32:37):
you're getting the same success rate as that 40 plus.
And then he's had 25 plus receiving yards in nine out of
11 games this season. But he's gone over the 44 1/2
receiving total and two out of six career games against
Detroit, which isn't as good as Watson's history against
Detroit. Also, he has never scored a

(32:59):
touchdown against the Lions in six career games.
However, he does lead the Green Bay Packers in red zone targets
this season since Tucker Craft is out.
So, you know, I like Josh Jacobsmore for a touchdown then then
Dobbs. And you know, I'm, I'm thinking

(33:24):
even Watson, even though even though Dobbs has a better gets
more red zone targets, I like Watson's history against Detroit
better than Dobbs. And then also, you know, to, to,
to elaborate with Dobbs, man, he's had, he has played in one

(33:44):
career game on Thanksgiving Day and went under his receiving
line, whereas Christian Watson has gone over his receiving line
in two career Thanksgiving Day games.
So I like Watson more than Dobbshere today, You know,
receptions. Let me just browse through my

(34:05):
notes real quick to see, you know, if we have anything with
these receptions here. You know, Watson has gone over
the 3 1/2 receptions and three out of five games this season.
He's had two plus receptions in all five games this season.
He's gone over the 3 1/2 reception line and half of his
career games against Detroit. He's had three plus receptions

(34:27):
and four out of six career gamesagainst Detroit and two plus
receptions in all career games against Detroit.
So I think the safest play if you're thinking about Watson
receptions is going to be the two plus receptions.
He's gone over that in all gamesthis season, and he's gone over
that in all career games againstDetroit.
So if you're looking for an alternate line like a safer

(34:49):
play, a safer play, yeah, watching 2 plus receive
receptions, he's had 100% success rate this season and
career games against Detroit's Dobbs over under 3 1/2
receptions. He's gone over that line in five
out of 11 games this season. Let me just see.
Let me just browse the notes real quick to see if there's

(35:11):
anything that really sticks out here.
Not really. So you know, I'd be leaning more
towards Watson's just just Watson in general then instead
of Dobbs. Now let's see better someone
outlier. I think I found a sleeper Wicks
27 1/2 receiving yards. He has hit this twice versus

(35:33):
Green Bay and twice this month. So some of these some of these
props were unavailable. I tried to get to as many as I
could. There's not many props that I
didn't look at, but you know, I don't see Wicks even on on the
book that I'm at for any, for any props, which is probably why

(35:58):
I didn't look into it. 27 1/2 receiving yards he's hit twice
this month, twice versus Green Bay.
Yeah, that sounds sounds pretty solid there.
Let's see. He's gone over that line in four
out of nine games this season and then he's gone over that

(36:23):
line in his last career game against against Detroit.
Not necessarily. You know, something that I
looked at a whole lot. I would look at his splits to
see if he you know is better. On the road.
Versus at home and yards per catch or better on turf than

(36:44):
grass. This game is being played on
turf. Yeah.
You know, Watson's going to be the guy that I'm looking for
here. Wigs line on FD and MGM.

(37:05):
No DK lines. Yeah, I was looking at the DK
lines, but you know, let's talk about the receiving Corp here
for the Detroit Lions. JB, who do you see being the
impact player here in this one? I'm on Ross St.
Brown or Jameson Williams. I mean, obviously I'm on Ross

(37:30):
St. Brown.
His receiving line is higher. He's projected to have more
receiving yards. But you know, which one would
you pick out of those two, man? Oh.
Man, obviously I'm on Brown, I'mon Saint Brown.
Seems like the more brand new pig.

(37:54):
Something's telling me Jameson warriors though.
I think I'm going to go Jameson for for the holiday.
Yeah, I'm naturally feeling thattoo, man, Jameson Williams.
But let me look into the the thestats real quick.
Green Bay has done a great job at limiting yards to wide

(38:14):
receivers this season. They ranked 5th best in the NFL.
I'm on Ross St. Brown has gone over the 75 1/2
receiving line in six out of 11 games this season.
So more than half of his games he's had 70 plus receiving
yards. I know some people like to
toggle that from 75 1/2 down to 70 plus receiving yards.

(38:35):
He's gone over that in seven outof 11 games this season.
He's had 60 plus in the same amount 7 out of 11 games this
season. He's had 50 plus and 11 out of
eight eight out of 11 games thisseason.
Let's see here if you're lookingfor 100 success rate with 100%
success rate for Amman Ross St. Brown.

(38:55):
He's had 40 plus receiving yardsin all 11 games this season.
He's had a touchdown in three out of nine career games against
Detroit. Excuse me against against Green
Bay, he's gone over the 75 1/2 receiving line and only two out
of nine career games against Green Bay in both.
Both games that he did go over that were in in Detroit though,

(39:19):
and they're in Detroit today. And then he's had 40 plus
receiving yards and eight out ofnine career games against Green
Bay. You know, so he's had 40 plus
receiving yards in all 11 games this season.
He's had 40 plus receiving yardsand eight out of nine career
games against Green Bay. I think that would be, you know,

(39:39):
a safer play if you will. Saint Brown, 40 plus receiving
yards and then he has more receiving yards per catch at
home than on the road in four out of five seasons, which is a
good trend. You know, that is a good trend
since they're playing at home. And then he has more receiving
yards per receptions in games that his team wins or ties

(40:02):
rather than loses in four out offive career seasons.
So if you're liking Detroit to win today, I'd give Aman Ross
St. Brown a bigger likelihood of
going over those receiving yards.
And then he has more receiving yards per catch on turf than
grass. And five out of five career
seasons. So this game's on turf.
And all five seasons he has moreyards per catch.

(40:26):
On turf than grass, he ranks first on the Lions and target
share, and in red zone target share, he actually ranks third
best in the NFL in red zone targets.
But, you know, let's talk about Jameson Williams a little bit
here. You know he has more yards per

(40:46):
reception when his team wins or ties rather than loses.
In three out of four career seasons, he's only gone over the
51 1/2 receiving line in one outof four career games against
Green Bay. And he's never scored a
touchdown in four career games against Green Bay.
So these statistics are leading me to believe that St.
Brown has the better game than Jameson Williams.

(41:10):
Also, Jameson Williams has not had 52 plus receiving yards in
his two career games that he's played on Thanksgiving Day.
Ahmad Ross St. Brown has at least gone over the
75 1/2 receiving line in two outof four career games that he's

(41:32):
played on Thanksgiving Day. So I got to learn more towards
St. Brown going over those receiving
yards then Jameson Williams. Let me just look at the
receptions real quick to see if anything sticks out to me.
I'd have to learn more towards St.
Brown going over his receptions as well.

(41:57):
Now he's only had 7 plus receptions.
That's his line's at 6 1/2. He's only had 7 plus receptions
and three out of nine career games against Green Bay.
I'd feel a lot more comfortable with five plus receptions for
Saint Brown. He's hit that in six out of nine
career games against Green Bay, in nine out of 11 games this
season. Let's see here give me Jordan

(42:24):
love under 232 1/2 passing guards, but I'll take his two
passing touchdowns, says blessedup Pete.
What are you thinking about the quarterback match up here today,
JB golf versus? Love.
Think golf needs to make some type of rebound right?

(42:47):
Love, man, goth love, goth love.I'm just not I'm not I don't see
the consistency with love. Never really have.
You know, he's hot one day he's cold another man, it's
Thanksgiving. You better you better have your
jacket or give me give me a callbeing home.

(43:11):
I I just I mean the hard part isis dealing with their defense
and Michael Parsons, right. That's my only worse is how are
they going to do that? Because Michael looks like he's
healthy finally for the first time in a long time.

(43:32):
So I'm going to go with Jordan love because I don't know if
Detroit can get back back there quick enough or get to them good
enough. Give me Jordan love.
You know, Detroit's done a pretty great, great job at
defending, you know, protecting Jared Goff this season.

(43:54):
They rank 11th and sacks allowedper game to their quarterback.
Green Bay ranks 10th and sacks, team sacks per game.
So I think that's a pretty fair match up there.
And with Parsons, yeah, I mean, I could see them getting after
golf a little bit here today. But, you know, in Green Bay, on

(44:14):
the flip side, they've done a great job at protecting Jordan
Love. But I do think golf is more
talented. But let's talk about this prop
that Ivan was talking about here.
Jordan Love over under, 232 1/2 passing yards.
He said he likes his under. When I was looking at it, it was
230 1/2. Jordan Love has gone over that

(44:36):
line in five out of 11 games this season.
And let's say you're thinking about taking Jordan Love for 200
plus passing yards. Well, he's only gone over that
in five out of 11 games this season as well.
So there I don't see any value of taking Jordan Love from 2:30
and a half down to 200 plus because he's gone over that in
the same amount of games this season.

(44:58):
If I were to take Jordan Love passing yards, I would go 175
plus since he's gone over that. In 10 out of 11 games this
season, he has had 231 plus passing yards and three out of
seven career games against Detroit.
He didn't have a pass attempt inone of those games, so it's more

(45:19):
like 3 out of 6. And then he's had 200 plus
passing yards and four out of six career games against
Detroit. So yeah, I would have to take
that line down to like 175 plus.But I'm with you, Ivan.
I and, and considering Green Bayis a run they call a high
percentage of rushing plays relative to the other teams in

(45:39):
the league, I I'd have to lean towards Jordan.
Love going to that under that aswell.
But let's talk about his passingtouchdowns.
He's had two plus passing touchdowns in five out of 11
games this season. He's had one plus and eight out
of 11. He's only gone over the 1 1/2

(46:00):
passing touchdown line in two out of seven career games
against Detroit, but it's more like 2 out of 6 since he didn't
have a a pass attempt in one of those games.
So I really don't even like his.I really don't like his.
His passing touchdowns going over either man.
I would have to, if I were to take his passing touchdowns, I'd
have to go to 1 plus. I think 1 plus is manageable.

(46:24):
He's gone over that and eight out of 11 games this season, 5
out of seven career games against Detroit, but more like 5
out of 6. So give me, give me if I, I
don't like Jordan love passing props today, but if I had to go
with them, give me 175 plus passing yards for love and one
touchdown pass. Let's talk about golf a little
bit. We have a comment here from Don

(46:46):
that says G3 plus passing touchdowns.
Yeah, let's talk about it. So Jared Goff has had two plus
passing touchdowns in seven out of 11 games this season.
So more times than not, he's gotthe two plus.
He's had three plus passing touchdowns in three out of 11
games this season, which isn't great, but if you're getting

(47:08):
good odds for that, you know, then that's that's decent.
And then he's had three plus passing touchdowns and two out
of 11 career games against GreenBay.
So he is capable of getting the three plus passing touchdowns.
But you know, I I like him for two plus passing touchdowns

(47:29):
today. He's had two plus passing
touchdowns in six out of 11 career games against Green Bay.
So more times than not this season and against his career
history against Green Bay, 2 plus passing touchdowns for
Doff. He's gone over that more times
than he hasn't now. His passing yards right 242 1/2

(47:52):
lasted that check. He's going over that line and
six out of 11 games this season he's had 200 plus passing yards
and 10 out of 11 games this season.
If you're looking for a higher success rate and he's had 200
plus passing yards in eight out of 11 career games against Green
Bay. But over that true line, he's

(48:15):
only gone over that that 242 1/2and 4 out of 11 career games
against Green Bay. But golf has more yards, more
passing yards per attempt in games that his team wins or ties
rather than loses in every season that he's played in
except one. And this is his 10th season.

(48:35):
So this goes back to if you think Detroit's going to win
today, I think golf has a biggerlikelihood of going over those
242 1/2 passing yards. If I were to have to pick
between one of the other, you know, I'd pick golf the two plus
passing touchdowns first. And then, you know, I, I do

(48:55):
like, I, I think golf has a better chance of going over
those passing yards today than than Jordan Love has gone over
his passing yards based on the statistics that I'm looking at
here. And then let me see if there's
anything else that we haven't really touched up on.

(49:16):
You know, if you're thinking about Detroit Lion, I didn't
look into their tight end prop. They don't have Laporta in.
But if if you do like Dwelly or another tight end for Detroit's,
you know, Green Bay has allowed the eighth most receptions to
tight ends this season. But, you know, other than that,

(49:41):
I think that about wraps this game up.
Dawn says they'll go with two plus passing touchdowns.
Yeah, I think I think that's safer than than the three.
I don't necessarily like that three plus.
I mean, can he do it? Absolutely.
But I'd rather be in a position I think 2 plus is, it seems

(50:05):
like, you know, much more doableaccording to this season's data
and his career history against Green Bay.
With all that being said, JB, who do you like in this game?
Detroit's favored by 2 1/2 and the over under is 48 1/2.

(50:30):
You there, JB? Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
I got Detroit just for them being home.
Yeah, I got to lean towards Detroit in this one too.
Get that, get that, you know, win back that they lost in week
one against Green Bay. And I do think Detroit covers

(50:52):
that -2 1/2. Once again.
The last 10 games that Detroit has beat Green Bay, Detroit has
won by three plus points. So I think that's pretty solid.
Detroit is also better against the spread this season.
Let's go Lions, let's go Lions. But I think you know the key to

(51:14):
this game for Detroit is limiting Josh Jacobs as much as
you can. I do have to say Josh Jacobs is
my my favorite touchdown score for the Packers.
And then my favorite touchdown score for the Lions is going to
be David Montgomery. If you had to pick a touchdown
score, 1 touchdown score on eachteam JB, who would you go with?

(51:37):
That's tough. One touchdown score on each
side. Give me Jameer Gibbs for Detroit
Lions, the touchdown score and give me, let me get a man.

(52:01):
I'm going to, I'm going to go. I'm going to go with give me,
give me, give me just tickets. Jacobs.
Yeah, give me Jacobs. You know what I, you know, the
other day JB, we were talking about the McCaffrey and McMillan
Mcdouble type type thing and it ended up it ended up hitting,
you know what I was thinking about today for Thanksgiving,

(52:21):
just a random thought that I hadthis morning was any player that
has like a food in their name. So like rice, right?
Right. I'm trying to see some other
ones that have a, a food in their name, lamb, lamb, rice and

(52:42):
what? We'll get to that game here in
just a second. And there was one other one.
Who was it? Oh man, I'll I'll think about it
if I come across it again. But there was one other one that

(53:03):
had like a food related name anyways.
And what what's your final scoreprediction in this in this Green
Bay and Detroit game, the over unders 48 1/2. 48 1/2.
I think it's going to be, I think it's going to be a higher

(53:25):
scoring game. Yeah, I got the over.
Thinking it goes over this too. Give me a 30 30 to 34 to 34 to.

(54:07):
34 to to 20, Detroit. We're trying to Detroit I.

(54:32):
You know, and I was looking to see where these teams were
vulnerable and allowing touchdowns this season.
Green Bay and Detroit, I just, if I can remember correctly and
I'm looking at it right now, they just really they they're
both just good at limiting touchdowns.
Oh, Detroit has allowed the second most receiving touchdowns

(54:56):
to wide receivers guys. So Ivan, I think you know,
Watson and we talked about him. I think that's that's a really
good look there. But Dobbs, let's, let's not
forget Dobbs. He doesn't have good history
against against Detroit. He hasn't scored a touchdown in

(55:17):
six career games against Detroit, but he is the main red
zone target. For for.
Green Bay. So if there was ever a time for
him to get one, I think this would be a good spot.
But yeah, I have to lean towardsWatson.
That's my second favorite playerto get a touch out on Green Bay,

(55:42):
first being. Jacobs.
JB, did you get a final score prediction to this game?
Yeah, I got. Give me, give me 20.

(56:09):
Give me 27 to 34, Detroit. You know.
To answer Ivan's question about Brock, right, I don't really
know much about it, man. But you know, that could be a

(56:29):
sneaky play here. Green Bay has a lot of five
receiving touchdowns to tight ends this season, which ranks
about middle of the pack. So I mean, I just didn't really
look into the tight ends for this game.
That was that. That's a flaw that I've had on
this breakdown. And really it's because their

(56:50):
two main tight ends are out now.We see, we see tight ends get
overlooked a lot, especially when the main ones are out like
this situation. I truly wouldn't be surprised to
see some tight ends get touchdowns in this game, but
just not somewhere I'm looking to target, man.
You know, we have Tucker Craft that's out for oh, Brock Wright

(57:13):
is also out in this game too. Ivan Brock Wright out, just so
you know, but Tucker Craft is out and then Laporta's out.
Brock Wright out. So it looks like, you know,
Musgrave and Fitzpatrick are going to be the got guys for
Green Bay. And then Ross Dwelly the tight

(57:36):
end for Detroit today. And I think he used to run with
San Francisco that. Literally run for San Francisco.
All right, so that breaks that game down.
I just want to see if I have anymore.

(57:57):
OK, cool, cool. All right, here we go.
Next game, the Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys.
Let's go Cowboys. You know, I'm a Cowboys fan.
JB is a Chiefs fan. So here we are.
Today's the day. Dallas leads the all time series

(58:19):
7 to 5 against Kansas City Chiefs.
Dallas is five and one against Kansas City when Dallas is the
home team. Mahomes does have a one and O
career record against Dallas. I was actually at that game
unfortunately. And then Dak Prescott has a one
and one career record against Kansas City.

(58:43):
I remember a Thanksgiving game afew years ago.
Dallas is 3422 and one on Thanksgiving.
They have a three-game Thanksgiving win streak.
Kansas City has a five and five record on Thanksgiving.
Mahomes has never played on Thanksgiving.
Dak Prescott, quarterback to theCowboys, is five and two on

(59:03):
Thanksgiving. Travis Kelsey needs 5 receptions
to move into 11th place on the all time receptions leaders
list. He would pass Andre Johnson.
What better spot to do it than on Thanksgiving Day?
And Andre Johnson used to play for the Houston Texans.
This game is in Texas. And let me just go browse what

(59:27):
Kelsey's over under on receptions is 5 1/2.
So if we took that down to five,you know, he's had 5 plus
receptions in five out of 11 games this season.
But he's also had at least 5 receptions in two career games

(59:47):
against the Cowboys. He's played technically three
career games against them, but he wasn't he didn't have a
target in one of those games. So it's really like more like
one out of two. We had five and seven total
reception. So I think I think Kelsey's got
a good chance of going over thisline today against the Cowboys,

(01:00:07):
who allow the eighth most receptions to tight ends this
season. And here's here's another long
shot, right? I mean, but it's I had to put it
down in my notes. Kelsey needs 222 receiving yards
to move into 21st place on the all time receiving yards leaders

(01:00:29):
list. He would pass Jason Whitten.
Jason Witten used to be a cowboy, right?
What better day to do that than today on Thanksgiving to pass
Jason Witten. But you know Kelsey would need a
monster game right? 222 plus passing or receiving
yards. I wonder what Kelsey's record

(01:00:50):
is. Kelsey record for receiving
yards in a game, his record is 191 to single game record.
So he would need to set his single game record in order to
do that. But I think that would be really
cool, you know, to do that in this in this spot today.
What do what do you think about Travis Kelsey today?

(01:01:12):
JB This Cowboys past defense that is allowed the third most
receiving yards per game this season.
Oh yeah, I love it. I love today for a kind of like
a get right game for the Chiefs,something good for Kelsey.
I like him. I like him a lot in this game.

(01:01:35):
You know, obviously the year hasn't gone the way that they
would like it to go necessarily,but Kelsey has had a better
year. I yeah, I like, I like Kelsey,
man. I like Kelsey.
Go off today. Yeah, today.
My name's so messed up right now.

(01:01:58):
That's good to. Both of these teams ranked 1st
and 2nd in passing yards per game and they both call a higher
percentage of passing plays relative to the other teams in
the league. I think I was listening to
something about Romo, right, talking about how, excuse me,

(01:02:22):
how both of these teams are going to run the ball today.
I don't know if I really see that happening, man.
I mean, both of these teams are they're bread and butters that
that passing attack and especially for Kansas City.
I mean, Kansas City is in a dream spot here, you know, the

(01:02:45):
second most passing yards per game going up against a team
that allows the third most passing yards per game.
And I've heard the Cowboys rush defense has just absolutely
turned things around since acquiring one of these defensive
players. So and you know, the Chiefs just
don't accumulate as many to the other teams in the league as

(01:03:06):
passing yards per game. So in Dallas is just better
against limiting the rushing yards per game relative to the
other teams in the league than the passing.
So I think that's the Chiefs, you know, go to thing and and
really I think and that's what Dallas does best too.
I think I think that's that's the way to go for these.
Teams today, both of them put the ball.

(01:03:27):
Through the air got way, I mean.I, I think, I think you're going
to see just. Like you did last week.
A little bit difference in Kansas City, right?
Kansas City and the Chiefs ran the ball last week quite a bit.
I think Green Hunt and like 29 carries, something like that.

(01:03:51):
So when it's not necessarily ourbread and butter, it is all
Thanksgiving. So we have to gather.
Sides, you know what I'm saying?We got other dishes, we don't
need to just be stuck in the same, you know what I'm saying?
Mashed taters. You know what I mean?
Yeah, man, I look for Cream Huntto have a good day.

(01:04:14):
I mean, I know it's been a shortweek.
So that is also actually actually, I took the back.
I take that back. I take the back.
Cream Hunt, do not look for Cream Hunt.
Cream Hunt just got the brakes beat off last week, just three
days ago. 29 carries. He's probably going to be.
Tired. Beat up.
Pacheco. Pacheco is coming back today for

(01:04:35):
that. Pacheco will be back with
Pacheco will be the main guy in play the last couple of weeks.
Yeah, I, I, I, I. I do like Chiefs running.
Game over. Dallas's running game this two
day, 2 day two night this evening.

(01:04:59):
Blessed up, he's asking CD Lamb.For longest reception, 25 1/2,
you know, I didn't get time to thoroughly look into a prop like
that, but I'm just browsing it real quick.
Ivan and I've seen CD Lamb has had 26 or more receiving of his
longest reception has been 26 ormore yards and 123456 out of

(01:05:24):
eight games this season. So I think that's pretty good
there. Now the Chiefs are not extremely
vulnerable to allowing big explosive passing plays.
When I was looking at my research, I know the Cowboys are
we'll. Talk about that here in a

(01:05:44):
minute. But I'm just trying to see CD
Lamb against the Chiefs. His longest reception in his one
career game against Kansas City was 8, so that's a bad history.
There. But let's talk about some other

(01:06:05):
stuff here. So let's let's stay with this
Chiefs passing attack. You know, I didn't I didn't
thoroughly cover the Kelsey receiving yards over under 57
1/2. He's gone over that line in six
out of 11 games this season. He's had 50 plus receiving yards
in seven out of 11 games this season, 45 plus and 9 out of 11.

(01:06:25):
And he's he's had 40 plus receiving yards in 10 out of 11
games this season. He's gone over the 57 1/2
receiving yard line and two out of three career games against
the Cowboys. But he didn't have a target in
one of those games. So it's really like going, he's
gone over that line in both career games that he's played
against the Cowboys. He's also had a touchdown in
both career games that he was targeted.

(01:06:48):
Both career games against the Cowboys, one of the touchdowns
he scored was a rushing. Touchdown.
He's never played. On Thanksgiving Day, he ranked
second on the Chiefs in red zonetarget share.
The Cowboys have done OK at preventing touchdowns to tight

(01:07:08):
ends this season. They've allowed three, which is
right up there with the. Chiefs like these.
The both of these teams are goodat preventing tight end
touchdowns this season. But you know, I think Kelsey.
'S in a good spot. I like his history.
I like the numbers that I see here with Kelsey.

(01:07:30):
JB says that he likes them, so yeah, 5 plus receptions for
Kelsey. I would say, you know, 40 plus
receiving yards is probably the safer way to go, but I'd still
have to lean towards them going over those receiving yards.
And I think anytime touchdown, Idon't necessarily love it, but

(01:07:55):
you know, I think it's very, very doable.
Considering he has a scored at least one touchdown in both
career games against Dallas. JB who?
Who do you think out? Of this Chiefs receiving Corp do
you see having the best day? I mean they have a a ton of
weapons here. Rashi Rice, Worthy, Hollywood

(01:08:17):
Brown, Juju Smith, Schuster. Also, do you think Thornton is
going to get any run in this game?
The Cowboys have allowed the sixmost receiving yards to wide
receivers this season and the 7th or, excuse me, the 11th most
receptions to wide receivers. Bryce Bryce baby.

(01:08:43):
Rice, rice baby. Oh yeah, we're going.
Rice. I think I think between Rice and
Xavier worthy. I think, I think they, they,
they go off today. I also wouldn't wouldn't be

(01:09:11):
surprised to. See Taekwon Thornton.
The Chiefs tried getting him involved last week and it.
Didn't really pan. Out, you know, I don't know why
they didn't go back to him. I would be looking for him.
To be kind of doing something out there in Dallas tonight.

(01:09:32):
You know Houston, you might. Have a problem I was.
Specifically asking about Taekwon Thornton.
Because I saw he had that big play capability and the Cowboys
have allowed the four of them the most 40 plus yard receptions
this season. They've allowed a total of 10.
So I was real interested in Taekwon Thornton a little bit.

(01:09:53):
But you know, I I'd say Rasheed Rice is the guy who has the most
40 plus yard receptions relativeto the games that he's played.
He has 240 plus yard receptions in five games this season.
So let me break down these thesewide receivers a little bit

(01:10:14):
here. Ivan says Hollywood Brown he
likes let's talk about it. Hollywood Brown over under 17
and a. Half receiving yards he's.
Gone over this line. In eight out of 11 games this
season, he's had 10 plus receiving yards and 10 out of 11
games this season. Here's the thing about
Hollywood. Brown is his line's at 17 and a.

(01:10:35):
Half which I mentioned. He's gone over an 8 out of 11
games this season. He's had 30 plus receiving yards
in eight out of 11 games this season.
So I know there's people that like to do the alternate the
reverse lines and I think this would be a pretty decent spot to
look at that. He's even had 40.

(01:10:55):
Plus receiving yards. In six.
Out of. 11 games this season. I think this line may be so, so
low though because Rasheed Rice missed some time, you know,
which is taking away some some work from from Hollywood Brown.
But Hollywood Brown's gone over the 17 1/2 receiving line in
both career games against the Cowboys.

(01:11:17):
He had 39 and 61 receiving yards.
He's had a touchdown in both career games against the Cowboys
that he's played in. He ranks 3rd on the Chiefs in
red zone targets. He also has more yards per catch
when his team wins or ties rather than loses in six out of
seven career seasons. He also has more yards per catch
on the road than he does at homein six out of seven career

(01:11:40):
seasons, which is a good trend. I like that play too, Ivan.
What do you think JB? You think Hollywood Brown has
those 18 plus receiving yards? I like it.
I always forget about Hollywood.Brown You.
Know and but he's he's up there in yardage and receiving for the
Chiefs. Yeah, I like it.
I really do. And then let's talk about your

(01:12:02):
man here, Rashe. Rice, He's gone over the. 75 1/2
receiving line and three out of five games this season.
If you're thinking about taking his rashes, rices line down to
50 plus receiving yards, he's gone over that the same amount
of times that he's gone over the75 1/2 this season.
So I don't see any value in that, but he has.

(01:12:22):
I would at least if I were to take Rishi Rice down on
receiving yards, I would take him at 40 plus.
He's gone over that in four out of five games this season.
He's had 35 plus in all five games.
He's actually, let's see here. He's never played against the
Cowboys. He leads this Chiefs team in red
zone targets and he's only played five games this season.

(01:12:42):
That's crazy. He ranks 9th in the NFL in red
zone targets and he's only played five games.
So, you know, Mahomes is really feeding him the rock man.
And yeah, I think. Rashi Rice is.
Definitely somebody to look out for today for the Cowboys, man,

(01:13:06):
but yeah, I'm worried about. Rasheed Rice going off.
And then worthy. You know he's gone over the. 38
1/2 receiving yards in In four out of nine games this season,
Worthy has had he's only had 30 plus receiving yards in five out

(01:13:26):
of nine games this season. 25 and 6 out of nine, I would have
to take Worthy probably down to 20 plus.
He's gone over that in eight outof nine games this season and
he's never played against the Cowboys.
Juju Smith Schuster over under 10 1/2 receiving yards.
He's gone over that in 70% of his games this season.
He's had five plus receptions, excuse me, 5 plus receiving

(01:13:51):
yards. In nine out of 10 games this
season, he's actually had 30 plus receiving yards.
In five out of 10. Games this season he's gone over
the 10 1/2 receiving line in twoout of two career games against
the Cowboys. He has a touchdown against the
Cowboys throughout two games in his history.

(01:14:12):
You think anything special todayfrom?
Juju Smith Schuster. JB or maybe just somebody.
If you had to not pick a player,maybe not go with him.
I mean, you seen it last week when Rashi Rice went down.
Who stepped up? Juju.

(01:14:33):
That is the other thing to thinkabout.
Guys. I didn't even think about this
until just now. Rashi Rice, remember at the end
of the game last week, was hobbling around and barely able
to keep going because of his hamstring injury.

(01:14:56):
I'd be. Looking for more of a limited
role from a shoe? Rice, now that I think about
that, I didn't even think about that.
Yeah. So it sucks.
Here's another aspect, JB. Noah Gray is out today going

(01:15:17):
under, you know, he had a concussion or is going under
concussion protocols. He's out today.
So that could open more things up for Travis Kelsey, give him a
bigger workload, I should say. You know, I didn't really cover
injuries in this game. There really wasn't.
Any notable injuries that I saw except for that one offensively

(01:15:39):
for either of these teams, it looks like everybody's healthy
for the most part. But yeah, you're right.
You know, Rashi Rice did have a little hamstring thing going on.
So you know for that to be impact because hamstrings don't
just. Go I think people looking for a

(01:16:00):
sleeper. To go off in this game, I mean,
Taekwon Thornton, man, the fact that the Cowboys have allowed
the most 40 plus yard receptionsthis season, I mean, Taekwon
Thornton has two of those. You know, just his workload just
isn't there. You know his targets.
He's just not. Seeing it, but if for some

(01:16:23):
reason the Chiefs unleash him today, I mean, I think he's a
sleeper for for an anytime touchdown.
And then since we're. Just since we're just.
You know, talking about the. Chiefs right now, let's talk
about their their rushing ability to, you know, the

(01:16:45):
Cowboys. Really where the Cowboys are
most vulnerable is in the rushing game with their
defenses. Rushing yards allowed to
quarterbacks. Patrick Mahomes over under 22
1/2 rushing yards. He's gone over that line in
seven out of 11 games this season.
He's had 10 plus rushing yards in seven out of 11 as well.
So if you're thinking about taking my homes from 22 1/2 to

(01:17:09):
over 10 parts to to 10 plus rushing yards, he's gone over
that in the same amount of games.
So I don't really see value right there with that.
If I were to take my homes to analternate line, I was taking for
five plus rushing yards, which he's going over 9 out of 11
games this season. But I think just if I were to go
with a Mahomes rushing prop, I would leave it where it was at

(01:17:32):
and go over that. He's actually had, you know, 30
plus rushing yards and six out of 11 games this season, 50 plus
and three out of 11 games. He did rush for 11 yards in his
only career game against the Cowboys.
I think this is a good spot for Mahomes to go over the rushing
yards. But I'm a little I'm a little

(01:17:55):
unsure about it. JB, what do you think about
Mahomes going over those rushingyards today?
I think I think it's a good look.
I do too. I I think it's a good look.
He's been really kind of standing in the pocket a little
bit more so recent weeks. But with this being a playoff
game or implications and from here on outlook for my homes to

(01:18:19):
be running a lot more. I like it.
I like them from going over the Russian total this week, Tony.
Romo was saying that. Running the ball, I mean.
Kareem Hunt had 30 rushing attempts last game and he was
talking about how that's the safe play, right?
And I just, I just, you know, I don't think either team should

(01:18:41):
focus on running today, althoughRomo's not wrong.
It is the safer play. You don't have to put the ball
through the air. And yeah, Mahomes, if he, you
know, gets things, things working through that pass game,
man, I mean, that'll just next thing you know, he's taken off
down the field for a nice amountof yards, you know?

(01:19:03):
Now I will. Say that the Cowboys have
allowed the 7th most, 20 plus. Yard rushing plays.
This season and Mahomes has had a 20 plus yard rushing gain this
season, so he's capable of getting there, you know.
And then excuse me, so Pacheco'sback.

(01:19:24):
Who do you see having the betterday, JB Hunt or Pacheco Man?
If Kareem Hunt was any younger, I'd.
Say him, but I have to go with Pacheco.
It sucks saying that because he's coming up with injury
hasn't played very well, but give me a Pacheco.

(01:19:48):
Let's go over the statistics here a little.
Bit here. Cream hunt over 32 1/2 rushing
yards. He's gone over that line in
seven out of 11 games this season.
He's had 30 plus and eight out of 11 games this season, 20 plus
and 9 out of 11 games, 15 plus. Every game this season Hunts had
at least 15 plus rushing yards. He's gone over the the 32 1/2

(01:20:08):
rushing line and two career games that he's played.
Against the Cowboys he had 37 and 71 rushing yards.
He's had a touchdown in one out of two career games against the
Cowboys. He actually had exactly 2
touchdowns in one out of two career games against the
Cowboys. He has more yards per rush
attempt on the road than at homein seven out of nine career

(01:20:30):
seasons. I think that is a good trend
here for Kareem Hunt and. Then he's had more.
Rushing yards per attempt on turf and grass in seven out of
nine career seasons, which is a good trend for Kareem Hunt.
So I'm liking what I see here for Kareem Hunt.
Let's look at Pacheco. Pacheco has gone over the 20. 7

(01:20:51):
1/2. Rushing line in six out of eight
games this season. So 75% of the time Pacheco's
gone over that line and he's gone over those rushing yards in
six straight games. He's had 20 plus rushing yards
in all eight games this season. So, you know, taking Pacheco
from 27 1/2 down to 20, you knowyou're getting 100% success rate

(01:21:13):
this season. He's had more yards per carry on
the road than at home in three out of four career seasons,
which is a good trend. He has more yards per carry when
his team wins or ties rather than loses in all career seasons
that he's played in. So if you like the Chiefs today,
I think, you know, Pacheco has abigger likelihood of going over
those rushing yards. Also, he has more rushing yards

(01:21:34):
per carry on turf than grass andthree out of four career seasons
that he's played, which is a good trend.
So to be honest with you, man, I, I think both of these guys
aren't in good shape here today to go over their their rushing
lines. Can they coexist though?

(01:21:54):
That would be before I would make any plays on that.
I would see if there have been any games throughout history
this season, maybe in a different season where Kareem
Hunt and Pacheco have both had solid games.
You know, typically if I'm goingwith one player to go over
rushing yards though, I know that's going to eat into the

(01:22:16):
other players workload a little bit.
So coexisting I think is a little bit more difficult.
Man, if I had to go with one, I would probably roll with you
because you know, you are a chiefs fan and you seem to know
what's what's kind of going on there.
So I guess I'd learn more towards Pacheco.

(01:22:38):
But man, I think I think they'reboth, you know, in solid spots
to go over there rushing you totals today, even Mahomes.
So, but the Cowboys have been better to.
Run he. Won't, I'm saying.
You're looking at a 30 year old running back in Kareem.

(01:22:59):
Hunt, who's already shown. That he's not the same just from
last year to this year and he had 29 carries last week and
that was Sunday in today, just afew days ago.
Yes, that's what I'm saying. So that's what I'm saying.
I don't see. Him.
Now, if he was any younger, givehim three years ago, yeah, I
could see that. I could see that.
But great point man, just lose the way that he was.

(01:23:21):
Used last week the way that. He's I don't, I don't see it,
man. I don't.
Yeah, yeah. That's, that's a good look, JB.
Great. Take man, it's good information.
Definitely something worth considering there.
Prescott. I've been blessed up, he asked.
Prescott. 250 plus passing yards.

(01:23:44):
Let's talk about it. The Chiefs.
Their pass defense is good. Really their their run defense
is good too, but they are more vulnerable relative to other
teams in the league in that passing yards allowed per game
rather than rushing yards allowed per game.
And that's where Dallas's bread and butter is.
So we're talking about Dak Prescott, 250 plus, last that I

(01:24:08):
checked, Ivan, I have 2:50. You know, he's gone over the
250. He's had 250 plus in eight out
of 11 games this season. But you know Prescott has gone
over the 256 1/2 passing yards in six out of 11 games this
season. Take it down to 250 plus, you're
looking at 8 out of 11200. Plus we're looking at 9 out of

(01:24:28):
11. And but here's the problem with
Prescott is he has never gone over this line in his two career
game history against the Chiefs.He had 249 passing yards in the
2017 game against Kansas City and then 216 passing yards
against Kansas City in 2021. He's averaged more yards per

(01:24:52):
pass attempt or or tied in everyseason he's played in when he's
at home rather than the road. Except one season.
This is his 10th season, so I think that's a good trend for
debt going over those passing yards today.
I think that's a good trend for Dak.
Going over those. Passing yards today.
Also, Dak has averaged more yards per pass attempt when his

(01:25:13):
team wins or ties rather than loses in every season he's
played in, and this is his 10th season.
OK, you're good, JB. Yeah.
So that's, you know, if you like.
The Cowboys. To win today, I think there's an
even bigger likelihood that Dak Prescott goes over those 256 1/2
passing yards. He's also averaged more passing

(01:25:35):
yards per attempt on turf than grass and every season that he's
played in except his first two seasons and then in the NFL.
So I like it man. I think that.
Goes over these passing. Yards today.
Not only is that where the Chiefs are more vulnerable
relative to other teams in the league in regards to yards

(01:25:57):
allowed per game, but that's theCowboys bread and butter.
You know they ranked 1st in passing yards per game.
They ranked 9th in passing play percentage, so they call a
higher percentage of passing plays relative to league
average. So I think Prescott goes over
the 256 1/2 passing yards today over under 1 1/2 passing

(01:26:19):
touchdowns. He's gone over that line in
seven out of 11 games this season.
He's had one plus passing touchdown in nine out of 11
games this season. He's had two plus passing
touchdowns in one out of two career games against Kansas
City. I think that's a little bit more
wishy washy. The Chiefs are really good at
defending touchdowns to pretty much every position.

(01:26:43):
Here's a sleeper play that I like.
For Dak. Prescott, is that any time?
Touchdown. OK, that's where the Chiefs are
really the most vulnerable relative to other teams in the
league. That's where the Chiefs have
allowed the most touchdowns. They've allowed five rushing
touchdowns to quarterbacks, which by the way, the Cowboys

(01:27:04):
have allowed the most in the NFL6 So these two teams have
allowed the most rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks this
season. Won't be surprised to see
Mahomes and or Prescott rushing for a.
Touchdown. I would have to learn more
towards Prescott since he's had that that rushing touchdown in

(01:27:25):
one out of two career games against Kansas City.
But let's talk about Mahomes passing yards a little bit.
Now. The Cowboys, they've allowed the
third most passing yards to quarterbacks this season.
Mahomes has gone over the 268 1/2 passing yards in six out of
11 games this season. He's had 250 plus passing yards

(01:27:48):
in nine out of 11 games this season, 200 plus and 10 out of
11 games this season. And then he had 260 passing
yards in his only career game against the Cowboys.
So I think that line is maybe set a little too high.
But once again, 250 plus, he's gone over that in one career
game in his only career game that he's played against the

(01:28:10):
Cowboys. And then he had 250 plus in in
nine out of 11 games this season.
So that's where I would go. I'd have to take that line a
little bit down with Mahomes andthen, you know, 2 1/2 passing
touchdowns for. Mahomes, I mean.

(01:28:31):
I think that's that line's a little bit too high as well for
me if I were to go Mahomes passing.
Touchdowns. I would have to.
Go 1 plus passing touchdown or. Or just over the normal line,
but I don't like him to. Necessarily throw for three

(01:28:52):
passing touchdowns today. So I would say 11 plus passing
touchdown for Mahomes. You like juju for a?
Touchdown. Yeah, that's what I was thinking
too, Ivan. Juju Smith Schuster, He has a
touchdown in one. Out of two career games against
the. Cowboys.
But Hollywood Brown man he's he's had a touchdown in both

(01:29:16):
career games that he's played against the Cowboys and the
Cowboys have allowed the most receiving touchdowns to wide
receivers this season. I would have to learn more
towards Hollywood Brown getting a touchdown here today.

(01:29:36):
Also, Hollywood Brown does have 4 receiving or 4 touchdowns this
season and I don't. Think I don't think Juju Smith
Schuster has had. That many I'll check real quick
to see how many he only has one touchdown this season Juju, but

(01:29:58):
I don't think that's a terrible look though.
I even are blessed up he he's he's had a touchdown in one out
of two career games against the Cowboys.
Mahomes for a touchdown feels like he's due.
Yeah, man, I think, I think bothof these quarterbacks have a
real chance to to sneak into theend zone today, considering both
of them have allowed the the. Most.

(01:30:19):
Rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks.
But I think that's where Dallas has to do it, man, if they, if
they want to compete in this game, if they want to win this
game, I I think they have to. I mean, once again, the Chiefs
have done a great job at limiting touchdowns to pretty
much every position. Wide receivers, tight ends, It
just seems like they're a littlebit more vulnerable to the the

(01:30:43):
quarterback sneaking into the end zone, maybe the running
back. I feel like, you know, we got to
just pound the ball with with. Javonte.
Williams Speaking of Javonte Williams, let's talk about him a
little bit here. Over under 67 1/2 rushing yards.
He's going over that line and eight out of 11 games this

(01:31:04):
season, he's had 50 plus rushingyards in nine out of 11 games,
40 plus and 10 out of 11. He's had 100 plus rushing yards
in two out of 11 games this season.
He's gone over the 67 1/2. You know he used to play for
Denver, right? So he's he's seen the Chiefs
before and he's gone over the 671/2 rushing line and and two out

(01:31:26):
of six career games against Kansas City, he's had a
touchdown in two. Out of six career games against
Kansas City and he. Has more yards per carry in in
games where his team wins over in ties rather than loses in
four out of five career seasons.So I think, you know, if if the
Cowboys win, yes, Javonte Williams has a better chance of

(01:31:46):
going over those rushing yards based on that.
And I just, I just think that that's where the Cowboys have to
get a touchdown in. This one is Javonte Williams,
so. Those would be the two.
Guys that I'd really be looking for now.
Javonte Williams does lead the. Cowboys in touchdowns this

(01:32:07):
season with 9, Pickens with eight, Jake Ferguson with 7.
But once again, the Chiefs, man,they have limited wide receiver
touchdowns very well this season.
They've allowed the third fewestand then tied in touchdowns
allowed. Kansas City has allowed the the
third fewest as well. So and then running back

(01:32:31):
rushing. Touchdowns allowed.
I mean, they're, they're really good at.
Defending against each position,they've allowed the third views
to to running backs as well. But since that's our touchdown
leader, Javonte Williams, I think he's he's got to, you
know, produce today and and Dag Dag.
I think the Cowboys. I don't.
I don't think the Cowboys win this game unless Dak Prescott

(01:32:51):
sneaks into the end zone. Yeah.
DAC rushing yards. He's gone.
Over his 11 1/2 rushing total now.
The Chiefs have allowed the. Six most rushing yards to
quarterbacks this season Prescott has gone over the 11
1/2 rushing yard total and only four out of 11 games this

(01:33:15):
season. He's had five plus rushing yards
and six out of 11 games this season, but he's averaged more
rushing yards per attempt on turf than grass and every season
that he's played in except one. So that's a beneficial trend for
Prescott going over those those yards today.
Also, he's gone over that line in one out of two career games.

(01:33:38):
Against Kansas City, he rushed for 27 yards in a touchdown in
one game and then 0 yards for 0 rushing touchdowns in another
game. So yeah, I think Prescott's
going to have to go over those rushing yards today in order for
the Cowboys to compete. And not just that, but I do like
him to go over those rushing yards today.

(01:33:59):
Let's see, what else. Here, you know, we haven't
talked about the wide receiving Corp here for the Cowboys.
The Chiefs, they've done a greatjob at limiting wide receiver
receiving yards. They ranked six best in the NFL.
We got CD Lamb and Pickens are the main two guys here for the
Cowboys. Lamb has gone over the 80 1/2

(01:34:20):
receiving yard line and four outof seven games this season.
He's had 70 plus receiving yardsand six out of seven games this
season. If we took CD Lamb for 65 plus
receiving yards, he's gone over that in every game this season.
He has only had 14 total receiving yards in his only

(01:34:41):
career game against Kansas City.So not much history and bad
history against Kansas City. Didn't score a touchdown in that
game, but he does have more yards per catch at home than on
the road in all six career seasons that he's played in.
So that's a beneficial trend forCD Lamb.
Also, he has more yards per catch on turf than grass and

(01:35:01):
four out of six career seasons. So that's a beneficial trend.
I just think that line may be just a a little too high today
for CD Lamb, although I wouldn'tbe surprised to see him get
there. Just, you know, statistically 65
plus seems like the better option.
But let's look at Pickens over under 75 1/2 receiving yards.

(01:35:22):
He's going over that line in seven out of 11 games this
season and he's going over that line in six straight games.
He's had 70 plus receiving yardsand seven out of 11 games this
season, 65 plus and 9 out of 11 games.
He did not get 76 plus receivingyards in his only career game
against Kansas City. He had 50 receiving yards, 0

(01:35:43):
touchdowns. He's never played on
Thanksgiving. He's had more yards per catch at
home than on the road in three out of four career seasons.
And he's had more yards per catch when his team wins or ties
rather than loses in three out of four career seasons.
You know, Pickens is the hot hand right now.

(01:36:04):
He's, you know, I mentioned thathe's gone over the 75 1/2
receiving line in six straight games.
JB who would you think is, you know, somebody that the Chiefs
have to limit and focus on more CD Lamb or George Pickens?
Dude, baby. I'm scared in debt to George
Pickens with the Chiefs defense.I feel like they can bracket CD

(01:36:28):
Lamb a little bit, you know whatI'm saying?
But I think if they get that one-on-one, you know, with the
Pickens GP3, I don't know, I think he could be a the one on
our side today. Guys, I do just want to take
another. Moment here to thank our
sponsors. Betusmybookie.agwalmart.walmart.com

(01:36:53):
Open Goal, the MLB and NFL Pro Shops and W energy drinks.
All right, so. Yeah.
You know if I were to have to gowith one or the other.
Man, I would. Learn more towards Sheesh.
I. Think I think.
I would have to take them both at 60. 5 plus, I just don't know

(01:37:17):
which one is necessarily going to do better.
Pickens has the hot hand. I see a little bit more
favorable trends with CD Lamb, but Pickens, yeah, he's just,
he's been the hot hand man. And I'll, I'll take your word.
For it JB. And and learn more towards the
Pickens going over his true line75 1/2 than CD Lamb going over

(01:37:43):
his receptions may be the way togo.
CD Lamb has had five plus receptions and six out of seven
games this season. He had three.
Receptions in his only career game against Kansas City.
So did Pickens 3 receptions in his only career game against

(01:38:03):
Kansas City. Hey, happy Thanksgiving just
landed channel. Tell me what's the topic team we
are talking about? We're talking about let's go the
Kansas City Chiefs versus Dallas.
Cowboys game today. Appreciate it.
Give us a sub man. Yeah, thank you for stopping in
here. PHX dot Douglas OK, so.

(01:38:26):
Let's see if we needed to. Cover anything else here, she
rice. You know Jake.
Ferguson. Obviously.
Somebody to mention here for theCowboys, he's their tight end.
Thank you. He's never played.
Against Kansas City. But.
He has more yards per catch at home than on the road and four

(01:38:47):
out of four career seasons, which is a good trend.
He has more yards per catch on turf than grass and three out of
four career seasons, which is a good trend.
Kansas City, they haven't been great or terrible at limiting
receiving yards to tight ends, and Ferguson has gone over the
36 1/2 receiving line and six out of 11 games this season.

(01:39:11):
If you're looking for a safer play with Ferguson, he's had 15
plus receiving yards and 10 out of 11 games this season, 20 plus
and 9 out of 11 games this season.
But yeah, I can see him going over that.
You know, may be. The receptions is the way.
To go now, the Chiefs have limited tight end receptions

(01:39:32):
better this season than the receiving yards allowed to tight
ends relative to other teams in the league.
And you know, Ferguson has has had five plus receptions and
eight out of 11 games this season.
I don't think there's any value at taking him at 4 plus
receptions because he's gone over that in the same amount of

(01:39:53):
games, 8 out of 11. But you know, 5 plus receptions
for Ferguson. I can see three plus he's gone
over that in 10 out of 11 games this season.
So if you're looking for a saferplay with Ferguson, 15 plus
receiving yards and three plus receptions, you know overall I

(01:40:14):
do give Kansas City a pretty good sized passing advantage and
the reason being is because the Cowboys pass defense.
Is much worse than Kansas City. Give the Chiefs a slight rushing
advantage in this game. Maybe a little bit.
Bigger than slight? To give Kansas City a slight

(01:40:35):
third down, excuse me, a slight red zone conversion rate
advantage, a good sized red zoneattempts per game advantage, and
a slight turnover differential advantage.
The only true advantages I really see for the Cowboys here
are that statistically is that they have a slight third down
conversion advantage and a slight sacks on the quarterback

(01:40:59):
advantage. I do also want to go back to one
thing that I didn't mention Ivanabout.
Hey, thanks, PHX Douglas, I do want to talk about one other
thing about Dak Prescott's statistics, OK?
And I. Think I may have.
Failed to mention this on some of these other players too.

(01:41:20):
I I know I did OK. And that's the that's the
Thanksgivings today statistics. OK, so we were talking about
Prescott, 250 plus passing yards.
He's gone over that in five out of seven Thanksgiving Day games.
He's had two. Plus touchdown passes in five
out of seven career ThanksgivingDay games that Prescott has had

(01:41:42):
a rushing touchdown in. Two out of seven career
Thanksgiving Day games he's had,he said what was this rushing
line? 11 1/2?
He has hit that in three out of seven Thanksgiving Day games.
If you wanted to take them for 10 plus, you're looking at 4 out
of seven career Thanksgiving Daygames CD Lamb has only gone

(01:42:06):
over. His receiving.
Line in one out of four career Thanksgiving Day games and he
has a touchdown. In one out of four career
Thanksgiving Day games, Jake Ferguson has 35 and. 57.
Yards and receiving yards in twoThanksgiving Day games did not
did not record a touchdown in either one of those games.

(01:42:30):
You know, I looked at the the. Anytime Touchdown.
Potential for a. For a defense and the Chiefs
have had the only defensive touchdown between these two
teams, but they've played, I think it was 12 games throughout
history, sort of the only ones that have scored a defensive
touchdown in in 1975, they had afumble recovery in the end zone.

(01:42:53):
You know I did. I do.
See that? Like Turpin?
Ranks 4th best in. Kickoff return yards for the
Cowboys this season. But you know, and if you can
find a vulnerability in that Chiefs kickoff defense and maybe
that's where the Cowboys can gain some ground.
But you know, I did want to makenote of that anyways, JB, Well,

(01:43:15):
who do you like in this game andwhat's your final score
prediction? What?
Do you like in this game? Do you like in this game?
I. Know KFC?
I think. It's going to come down.
To the total score. I think I think it's like a. 31.

(01:43:45):
30 4. Chiefs.
You know the Cowboys. Are better against the.
Spread than the Chiefs this season.
The Cowboys are also a 2 and O against the spread as a home
underdog, whereas the Chiefs areone and three against the spread

(01:44:06):
as a road favorite with the overunder.
It's funny because Dallas has the best record to the over this
season. They're seven and four.
The Chiefs have the worst recordto the over, they're three and
eight to the over and only threeout of the last 10 meetings
between these teams have had a combined total of 53 plus

(01:44:26):
points. So I'm going to learn more
towards the underside of things today.
And I think that the Cowboys specifically will have a tougher
time moving the ball than the Chiefs.
Man, I would love, I would love to see the Cowboys win this
game, but I think that the Chiefs win by exactly 3 points.

(01:44:50):
So, you know, final score. I think it goes under the 52
1/2. I think the Chiefs, man, they
have a they have the potential to just light up this Cowboys,
this Cowboys defense give me theChiefs to win 30 to.

(01:45:17):
No, that's too high. 27 to 24 Chiefs win 2724 and I, and I
don't like to say that. I'm hoping I'm wrong.
Cowboys fans, I'm a Cowboys fan.I want the Cowboys to win today.
But you know, my unbiased opinion on this got to go with

(01:45:38):
the Chiefs. Last game.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore.Ravens.
Baltimore leads the all time series 32 to 27 against.
Cincinnati I think this game, man might have the I think this

(01:46:01):
game. Has the the best.
Likelihood of of going over the point total today these teams
have gone over the 51 1/2 point total in their last three games
they played against each other They both are also seven and
four which ranks first in the NFL seven and four to the over
this season. So, and I'm just.

(01:46:26):
Looking at, you know the. Fact that Baltimore is 32 and 27
all time against Cincinnati. Maybe we see a 33 to 27 victory
for Baltimore. They would be 33 and 27 all time
against Cincinnati if they won. And what would that be crazy if

(01:46:46):
the final? Score, of course, would be that,
but I don't know who I'm going with in this game quite yet.
I think I like Cincinnati to cover and possibly win.
I think out of all the underdogstoday, out of all the underdogs,
I, I. Don't know man.
But there's they're projected tohave Joe.

(01:47:08):
Burrow back. JB How big is that for this
Cincinnati team? I mean, how, how much do you
think that? That, you know, benefits or
hinders the Bengals chances of winning this game today.
You know, they haven't played ina while.
They don't have a. Chance to win?

(01:47:30):
At all, Higgins. Higgins is out I believe too.
Yeah, yeah, he's. Out wide receiver T.
Higgins. Burrow back.
Here's what I like about Burrow.OK?
The most passing yards he's everhad in a.
Game was against. Baltimore.

(01:47:51):
He had 525 passing yards, also the most receiving yards.
I'm trying to see if it was Jamar Chase maybe?

(01:48:14):
Not let me see Jamar Chase. Chase most receiving yards in a
game. I would guess it'd be the same
10 that was against the Chiefs. OK.
Anyways, that's what I like about Burrough today is that he
has great history in regards to that passing yardage.

(01:48:37):
You know, 525 passing yards in agame against Baltimore.
Let's let's back up a little bithere.
These teams have played each other twice on November 27th
throughout history. In the series is tied one to one
On this exact date, Lamar Jackson has a 10 and two career
record against the Cincinnati Bengals and Joe Burrow is four

(01:48:58):
and six against the Baltimore Ravens.
Cincinnati has an O and one all time record on Thanksgiving Day
and Baltimore is 2 and O on Thanksgiving Day.
Joe Burrow. Nora Lamar Jackson has ever
played on Thanksgiving Day. DeAndre Hopkins needs 2
receptions to move into 17th place on the all time receptions

(01:49:20):
leaders list. He would pass Heinz Ward.
DeAndre Hopkins needs 1 receiving touchdown to move into
19th place on the all time receiving touchdowns leaders
list. He would.
He would pass Lance Allworth. Derrick Henry needs 2
touchdowns. To move into 13th.
Place on the all time touchdownsleaders list, he would pass

(01:49:41):
Larry Fitzgerald. So there are a lot of different
milestones that could be reachedtoday between Derrick Henry and
DeAndre Hopkins. You know, Cincinnati's on A4
game losing streak, Baltimore's on A5 game-winning streak.
We mentioned that T Higgins is out.

(01:50:03):
Overall I give. Cincinnati a slight passing
advantage, rushing advantage, I give Baltimore a big rushing
advantage. You know, I give Baltimore a
good sized red zone attempts pergame advantage, but I give
Cincinnati a big red zone conversion advantage.
Cincinnati a slight sacks on thequarterback advantage, no clear

(01:50:25):
third down conversion advantage,and Baltimore a big turnover
differential advantage. Man, I don't think Cincinnati
looks half bad here in this one,man.
But here's what I'm worried about.
Here's what. I'm concerned about with.
Cincinnati winning the game, right, is it's the last game on
today, right? And if people don't necessarily,

(01:50:51):
you know, have good luck in the first two games, they may be
trying to chase on this game, Jamar, chase in this game.
You know, and that's the only thing I don't like about it.
Everybody's, you know, drinking their holiday fluids.
And just. Pick the blindly pick the

(01:51:11):
Bengals here to to get the coin back.
And I just you know, that's that's what I'm concerned here.
But you know, the Bengals love to pass the ball and Baltimore's
pass defence is bad. You know, they ranked 24th and
passing yards allowed per game. So you know, Joe Burrow, let's

(01:51:37):
talk about the offense for Cincinnati first.
Joe Burrow over under 254 1/2 passing yards.
Baltimore has allowed the 11th most passing yards to
quarterbacks this season. Burrow hasn't gone over that
line. And, and two, hey, that that's
all right, Ivan. Maybe, maybe we're wrong here,
man, but you know, Joe Burrows, gone.

(01:52:02):
Over the 254 1/2 passing. Yard, line and zero out of two
games this season he's gone overthat line, the 254 1/2 and 4 out
of 10 career games against Baltimore.
He's had 200 plus passing yards and eight out of 10 career games
against Baltimore. I mentioned the most passing
yards Joe Burrow has ever had ina game was against Baltimore

(01:52:23):
where he threw for 525 passing yards.
He's had 375 plus passing yards and four out of 10 career games
against Baltimore. I mean, so if I'm taking Burrow
over the 254 1/2 passing yards, which I kind of like, I would
take him for 370. 5 plus he's gone over the three he's.

(01:52:43):
Had 375 plus in the same amount of games against Baltimore as he
has had 255 plus. He's never played on
Thanksgiving. I mentioned that 1 1/2 touchdown
passes for Burrow. He's gone over that line and
half of his career games againstBaltimore.
The most passing touchdowns Burrow has ever had in the game
was against Baltimore. It was 5 total passing

(01:53:05):
touchdowns. He's had one plus passing
touchdown and 9 out of 10 careergames against Baltimore. 3 plus
and four out of 10 career games against Baltimore.
What do you think about Joe Burrow today?
JB? You don't you you.
Didn't seem. Too high on him today.
Pointed out she's been gone all year.

(01:53:28):
She's going to pop up and. Like be Houdini.
Or something. You know, do something.
I don't know. He couldn't get it done before
his injury with the offensive line, the team that he has.
I don't believe he will get it done after the injury with the
team and everything that he has.So yeah, I'm not.

(01:53:52):
You're not moved. You're not moved.
I'm not moved by. I'm not moved by Burrow.
I'm very moved by Burrow, man I.Think he's got a great.
Spot today to at least get some passing yards.
I mean, I guess, I guess pad andstats, Yeah, yes, pad.
And stats to lead his team to victory.
I don't know necessarily, but pad and some stats I kind of

(01:54:15):
like here. Cincinnati's just not a good
rushing team. They don't focus on running the
ball a lot. You know, Chase Brown, just not
somebody that I typically like to target.
But you know, I was talking about him last week.
Cincinnati was going up against a a pretty tough rush defense.

(01:54:39):
And I was talking about how it seems like whenever it seems
like the tougher the rush defense is against Cincinnati,
the more Chase Brown produces. You may want to fat check me on
that. But you know, just not somebody
I'm looking to targets in the rushing game at least.
But the passing game. Let's talk about Chase Brown's

(01:55:01):
passing attack here. Baltimore has allowed the 7th
most receiving yards to running backs.
If I'm not mistaken. Chase Brown has a lot of targets
for Cincinnati this season, 57 total targets which ranks 3rd on

(01:55:21):
the best on the team and with T Higgins being out that ranked
second best. So I think you know Chase Brown
could have a ton of targets today.
With T Higgins being out. Chase Brown has gone over the
19. And a half receiving.
Line and six out of 11 games this season he and he's gone
over that line in four straight games.

(01:55:42):
He's had 15 plus receiving yardsin eight out of 11 games this
season. He's played three career games
against Baltimore and had zero receiving yards, 8 and 52 and
he's had a touchdown in two out of two out of three career games
against Baltimore. Baltimore.

(01:56:02):
Has allowed two receiving. Touchdowns to running backs.
They've allowed nine rushing touchdowns to running back.
So both of those statistics are slightly below average or right
around average relative to otherteams in the league.
So I think you know Cincinnati. You know, I think they're going.
To have an opportunity to score touchdowns with their running

(01:56:24):
back and and wide receivers today against against Baltimore,
it looks like Baltimore's a little bit.
More vulnerable to that. Wide receiver touch to anytime
touchdown. So that brings me up to Jamar
Chase here. Jamar Chase, Excuse me, Jamar
Chase over under 92 1/2 receiving yards.

(01:56:47):
Baltimore has allowed the 11th most receiving yards to wide
receivers this season. Jamar Chase has gone over the 92
1/2 receiving yard line and halfof his games this season.
I don't really see any value in taking his line down to even 60
plus. He's gone over.
He's had 60 plus receiving yardsin the same amount of games as

(01:57:07):
he's had 90 plus receiving yards.
Jamar Chase maybe taking Jamar Chase from 92 1/2.
To 90. Plus could be advantageous since
he's gone over the 90 since he'shad 90 plus and six out of 10
games this season and only 5 outof 10 games he's gone over the
92 1/2. So in that regard, OK, But if I
were to take Jamar Chase lower than 80 plus, I would take him

(01:57:32):
down to 50. He's gone.
He's had 50 plus receiving yardsand seven out of 10 games this
season. His volume could go up with
Higgins being out. He's gone over the 92 1/2
receiving line and four out of nine career games against
Baltimore. He's had 80 plus and six out of
nine career games against Baltimore.
He's had 100. And if you're thinking about
Jamar? Chase has a.

(01:57:53):
Vintage game. He's had 125 plus receiving
yards and four out of nine career games against Baltimore.
175 plus and three out of nine career games against Baltimore.
200 plus and two out of nine career games against them.
He scored a touchdown and six out of nine career games against
Baltimore. He's had two touchdowns and two
out of nine career games. He's had three touchdowns in a
game against Baltimore. I mean, he's got some pretty

(01:58:14):
decent history here. I like him to score in any time.
Touchdown today. What are you, what are you
thinking about Jamar Chase today?
JB? You didn't seem like you were
necessarily too high on Joe Burrow, but maybe, maybe Pat in
the stats you were. Feeling OK about.
What about Jamar Chase? Yeah, I'm OK with Pat in the
stats. I mean I got.
I got Jamar Chase on my my team.Yeah, I think.

(01:58:40):
DeMar Chase could could have a good game, I mean like on games,
but yeah, I think he can. Have like a decent game.
I don't really like bro man to have a good game.
I mean just because he comes back, you know, how is the toe
going to feel? How is that going to be?
You know, I just don't I just don't buy it.

(01:59:02):
I just don't see it, but I do. I do like, I do like Jamar
Chase, always have and always probably will, no matter who the
quarterback is for tomorrow. Yeah, I got to like, you know,

(01:59:22):
tomorrow, Chase and Chase Brown.Anytime touchdowns today, if I
were to have to lean towards one, I have to lean towards
tomorrow, Chase, and then you know.
Gaseki No. Offense, you know something.
Something interesting. I saw with Mike Gaseki tied in
for for Cincinnati because he's gone under the 6th, 36, 1/2

(01:59:44):
receiving line in every game this season and he's gone.
So he's gone over that line in. Zero out of.
Six games this season, he's goneover that line in one out of
five career games against Baltimore.
Baltimore hasn't been terrible or great at defending against
receiving yards allowed to tightends, but if you're looking for

(02:00:05):
an under prop, that was something that was sticking out
to me there. Check out Kaseki and then Noah
Phant. He's gone over the 11 1/2
receiving yard line in eight outof nine games this season.
He has gone over this line in one.
Out of two career games. Against Baltimore, he's even

(02:00:26):
scored a touchdown against Baltimore.
And he has more yards per catch on the road then at home in six
out of seven career seasons, which is a good trend since
Cincinnati's on the road here. So, yeah, I think no offense,
excuse me, over the receiving yards and Gaseki under the

(02:00:47):
receiving guards looks pretty interesting here.
Also, Gaseki under receptions could see, you know, I could see
that under the 3 1/2 receptions.He's only gone over that in one
out of six games this season, whereas no offense gone over his
1 1/2 reception line in eight out of nine games this season.
But here's The thing is that it was in the IT was in the last

(02:01:09):
game that that Cincinnati playedwhere no offense only had one
reception and. Where?
Gaseki I think had the four plusreceptions or something like
that. But anyways, yeah, I got to
learn more towards fan than Gaseki today.

(02:01:32):
Joe Burrow. Rushing yards, he hasn't gone
over that line. This season, let's talk about
let's talk about some Baltimore Ravens props and get on with our
day here, Baltimore Ravens. So here here's what I also.
Want to say about about Jamar Chase real quick is that

(02:01:54):
Baltimore has allowed the fifth most. 20 plus.
Yard receptions this season, thefifth most and Jamar chase has
had 720 plus yard receptions in 10 games this season.
So we know he's capable of that big play and he's he's had
plenty of 20 plus yard receptions and even Yoshiva's

(02:02:16):
wide receiver for the Bengals has had 520 plus yard receptions
this season. Didn't really talk about him.
But and that goes back to Chase Brown, you know, also has 520
plus yard reception. So all three of these guys are
capable of picking up those big gains.
Let's talk about the. Baltimore Ravens here.

(02:02:38):
JB, who first and foremost, are you looking, you know, to see
the Ravens utilized today? Who's your go to guy?
Is it going to be Lamar Jackson?Derrick Henry?
Derrick Henry? Derrick Henry?
Yeah, Derrick. Henry and playing Hopkins, the

(02:03:01):
Audrey Hopkins. Yeah, yeah.
They didn't have. Props up for Hopkins.
When I was looking guys, but I did mention that he needed a
touchdown, 1 touchdown receptionto move into 19th place on the
all time receiving touchdowns leaders list.
And when I'm looking at Cincinnati's, Cincinnati has

(02:03:23):
done a great job at limiting wide receiver touchdowns this
season, though they've allowed the second fewest.
So I'm a little skeptical about about Hopkins today and he's
only scored a touchdown in one out of five career games against
Cincinnati. If we're looking for any time
touchdown statistics real quick guys, Derrick Henry has had a

(02:03:45):
touchdown in five out of seven career games against Cincinnati.
Rashad Bateman, we'll talk abouthim.
He's had a touchdown in four outof six career games against
Cincinnati. Mark and.
Mark Andrews. Has had a touchdown in seven out
of. 14 career games against Cincinnati, he's had two
touchdowns in one of those games.

(02:04:08):
Chase Brown 2 out of three. I've already mentioned that two
out of three career games against Baltimore, he's had a
Teddy Jamar Chase 6 out of nine career games against Baltimore.
I think the last time these guysplayed, man, I was looking at
their box score and it was just like a dream situation for
anybody that likes to play. Anytime touchdowns in in the

(02:04:29):
same game, let me double check. If this was the game.
It doesn't seem like it was necessarily.
Maybe it was this game. Chase Brown had a touchdown in
their last game. Jamar Chase, Derrick Henry, Mark
Andrews, Rashad Bateman. I mean, so, yeah, I mean, I'm

(02:04:54):
kind of. Feeling the same way here again
today. Maybe the day starts off slow,
maybe we get a relatively lower scoring game in this Lions game,
Cowboys, Chiefs I think probablyhas the best chance of going
under the total points. But.
I think this one. Maybe has the best chance.
Of going over statistically and I'm.

(02:05:17):
Naturally. Feeling that way?
But let's talk. About Lamar Jackson real quick,
he's only you know. Cincinnati has allowed the 4th
most passing yards to quarterbacks this season, but
Laura Jackson has only gone overthe 234 1/2 passing yard line in

(02:05:38):
one out of eight games this season. 200 plus passing yards
in four out of eight games this season, but he has gone over the
234 1/2 passing yard line in half of his career games against
Cincinnati. It was more like 6 out of 11
career games against Cincinnati.He didn't have a passing attempt
in one of those games, but he's had 200 plus passing yards in

(02:06:00):
seven out of 11 career games against Cincinnati.
So if I were to go Lamar Jacksonpassing yards, I would
absolutely have to take those passing yards down to 200 plus.
And one of the reasons not only being because he has bad
history, but Baltimore calls the.
Second highest. Percentage of rushing plays

(02:06:23):
relative to other teams in the league.
So they they're really focused in on that rushing attack.
Lamar Jackson. Rushing, you know, let's talk
about it. He's gone on in Cincinnati.
A lot of people think that Bengals win today, says Blessed
up Pi mean. Yeah, dude, I just, I'm worried

(02:06:44):
about it being the last game of the day.
If it was the first game or the second, I would like
Cincinnati's chances a lot better.
But I mean, but let's let's talkabout Lamar Jackson.
You know, Cincinnati has allowedthe 9th fewest rushing yards to
quarterbacks this season. Lamar Jackson over under 25 1/2
rushing yards. He's gone over this line and

(02:07:06):
half of his games this season. If you're thinking about taking
him down to 15 plus, well, he's gone over that and half his
games this season as well. 10 plus rushing yards.
He's gone over in every game, eight out of eight games this
season, but he's gone over the 25 1/2 rushing yard total in 10
out of 12 career games against Cincinnati.

(02:07:27):
So I like that history there. He's actually had 50 plus
rushing yards and hold up 50 plus.
Excuse me? Let's back up.
He's had 30 plus rushing yards. 10 out of 12.
Career games against Cincinnati He's had 50 plus rushing yards

(02:07:48):
in nine out of 12 career games against Cincinnati For those who
like to do those alternate reverse lines there.
But he's only. Had a rushing.
Touchdown in two out of 12 career games against Cincinnati.
Also Cincinnati. I don't believe they have
allowed many rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks this season.

(02:08:09):
They've allowed one, so I'm concerned.
About LJ. Rushing attack today and but I
do like that history. I could see him going over that.
But once again, Cincinnati ranks9th best in rushing yards
allowed to quarterbacks Goes back to Derrick Henry.
What you were talking about JB, Derrick Henry over under 91 1/2

(02:08:32):
rushing yards. Cincinnati has allowed the
second most rushing yards per Game. 2 opposing teams Eric
Henry 91 1/2 rushing yards. Cincinnati's also allowed the
second most rushing yards to running backs this season.
Henry's gone over the 91 1/2 rushing yard line in four out of
11 games this season. 70 plus atsix out of 11 games, 60 plus at

(02:08:56):
7 out of 1150 plus at 8 out of 11.
He's had 92 plus rushing yards in three out of seven career
games against Cincinnati, 60 plus rushing yards and five out
of seven career games against Cincinnati, 50 plus and six out
of seven career games against them.
So I think, you know, yeah, man,Derrick Henry is in another spot

(02:09:17):
here today. You know, I mentioned last week
he would eat. He got the touchdowns but didn't
really accumulate the rushing yards today.
I think he has a much better chance of accumulating those
rushing yards. We may have to take his line
down a little bit to make it a. Little bit.
Of a safer play, but you know Cincinnati has allowed the.
Third most 20. Plus rushing yard plays this

(02:09:39):
season, and Derrick Henry has 620 plus yard rushing gains this
season. Lamar Jackson hasn't had any.
So I think the big explosive play capability is much more in
Derrick Henry's favor as well. Yeah, I mean, I would have to
lean towards Henry going over that line, even though he's only
gone over that line in four out of 11 games this season.

(02:10:03):
You know Cincinnati's rush defense is.
Just is just bad. You know, and you know, let's
talk about you know, if you're thinking about Derrick Henry
receiving yards. Cincinnati has allowed the
second most receiving yards to running backs this season, and
Henry has had 7 plus receiving yards and seven out of 11 games

(02:10:24):
this season. But he's only gone over that
line in two out of seven career games against Cincinnati.
Who who who you leaning more towards than this one?
JB Zay Flowers. Or shot Bateman to have a better
game. Zay Flowers didn't.
Really like to show up in prime time games.

(02:10:45):
So pregnant to go with baton because this is a Thursday Night
Football game. This is not Thanksgiving game.
This is regular Thursday Night Football proceedings.
The extra games are the early games, so I'm going with the

(02:11:06):
prime time event. That Zafars.
Does not show up and Bateman does.
That's where I'm leaning towardsas well.
Now. Because some people are actually
getting this kind of. Twist and they actually think
that. All day today is Thanksgiving
football and tomorrow is the Thursday Night Football.
Moved that which is holy. Oh yeah, there's that game on

(02:11:30):
tomorrow. Man, this has been a quick.
Quick turn around for me. I mean, I usually have one
Thursday game on, right? Well, now we have 3 today.
We have 1:00 tomorrow. So yeah, it's been, it's been
This is that prime. Football season.
Man, this is that. Prime time, yeah, but you know

(02:11:52):
Bateman. Has had a touchdown in four out
of. Six career games against
Cincinnati, I like. That and you know, but.
Cincinnati has done a good job at defending against.
Wide receiver touchdowns. So I'm not necessarily looking
for a wide receiver here today to score a touchdown for

(02:12:14):
Cincinnati. I'd be leaning more towards, you
know, Derrick Henry. Cincinnati's about average and
rushing yards allowed to them tothe running backs, but they've
allowed the most receiving touchdowns to tight ends.
JV. Now we'll talk about Zay Flowers
and Bateman for a second, but I definitely want to consider

(02:12:36):
these these tight ends for Baltimore to score a touchdown.
OK, so Zay Flowers over under 641/2 receiving yards.
He's gone over that in six out of 11 games this season.
He's had 55 plus and 9 out of 11games he's only had.
He's only gone over the 64 1/2 receiving our total in one out
of four career games against Cincinnati and he does not have

(02:12:58):
a touchdown against Cincinnati throughout his career.
Prime time game. Not so many I'm looking forward
to now. The reception line is.
Somewhat interesting. Here for Zay Flowers, he's gone
over. He's gone over the four and a
half reception line in eight outof 11 games this season.
He's had three plus receptions in 10 out of 11 games this year

(02:13:21):
and has had three plus receptions in all career games
against Cincinnati. Cincinnati's done a good job at
limiting receptions to wide receivers though this season,
but if I were to have to go withhis A Flowers prop, I would
learn more towards his receptions over the 4 1/2.
But I'd feel more comfortable at3.
Plus Rashad Bateman, he's only gone over the 20. 4 1/2

(02:13:44):
receiving. Yard line in two out of nine
games this season. If we took that to 10 plus, he's
gone over that in seven out of nine games this season.
But he has gone over the 24 1/2 receiving yard line in four out
of six career games against Cincinnati.
He's had 10 plus receiving yardsin all career games against
Cincinnati, and he's had a touchdown in the four out of six

(02:14:05):
career games against them. The receptions isn't looking
good for Bateman. He's only gone over the 2 1/2
reception line in one out of nine games this season, but he
has gone over the 2 1/2 reception line in five out of
six career games against Cincinnati.
So, but yeah, not necessarily a spot that I'm looking for, for

(02:14:26):
really for either of those guys.But you know we.
Got we got Mark. Andrews and.
Isaiah Likely here. Cincinnati is terrible at
defending against the tight end position.
Cincinnati is is their last. They ranked worst and receiving
yards allowed to tight ends. They ranked worst and receptions

(02:14:46):
allowed to tight ends. They ranked worst and touchdown
receiving touchdowns allowed to tight ends.
Who do you feel like is going tobe that that difference maker
today? The JB between the tight end
battle of Mark Andrews or Isaiah?
Likely, it's likely. Going to be Andrew's today.
Likely going to be Andrew's. Yes.

(02:15:13):
Yes, yes. I I don't see it.
And I don't know, Andrew's I think has been more a problem
and more existent other lately, maybe even just like this whole
year. Yeah, I'm going Andrews.

(02:15:33):
You mean Andrews, I think in this last.
Game in the last. Game these guys played, man it
was. Mark Andrews, who scored.
And then it seems like Lamar Jackson kind of goes back and
forth the the two games ago thatthese teams played likely had

(02:15:58):
two touchdown passes from Mark, likely had two touchdown
receptions. So it's just kind of back and
forth here. Let's talk about the history
here. Mark Andrews over under 38 1/2
receiving yards. He's only gone over that in one
out of 11 games this season. 35 plus receiving yards, still one
out of 11 games, 30 plus. Now we're getting the four out

(02:16:19):
of 1125 + 4 out of 1120 + 7 out of 11.
But he's gone over the 38 1/2 receiving yard line and 10 out
of 14 career games against Cincinnati.
He's had 25 plus and 11 out of 14 career games, 20 plus and 12
out of 14 career games. He's had more yards per catch at
home than on the road in six outof eight career seasons, which

(02:16:43):
is a good trend since he's playing at home today.
He has more yards per catch in games that his team wins or ties
rather than loses in seven out of eight career seasons.
So if you like Baltimore today, Mark Andrews, just based on that
trend alone, has a better chanceof going over these receiving
yards. I already mentioned his
touchdown history against Cincinnati.

(02:17:04):
I think, I think he's in a good spot here to possibly go over
those receiving yards. But one out of 11 games this
season is really scary, you know, and then likely he's gone
over in one out of seven. His 23 1/2 receiving line In one
out of seven games this season, he's only gone over the 23 1/2

(02:17:27):
receiving. Line in one out of.
Six career games against Cincinnati.
Man, just I'm going to. Have to lean towards Andrews
going over his receiving. Yards more than likely.
I like well, the the the historyhere with Andrews a little bit
more. You know, I like the fact that

(02:17:48):
he's gone over his receiving line in 10 out of 14 career
games against Cincinnati, whereas Isaiah likely has only
gone over that line in one out of six career games against
Cincinnati. And if I were to have to go with
the reception line for these guys, Andrews 2 plus receptions,
he's gone over that in 13 out of14 career games against

(02:18:10):
Cincinnati and eight out of 11 games this season.
So. Yeah, I, I, I.
Got to lean more towards. Andrews.
For all the you know, any time touchdown receiving yards.
It's hard not to like Mark Andrews anytime.

(02:18:30):
Touchdown you. Know considering Cincinnati's
allowed the most receiving touchdowns to tight ends this
season. JB, what are you?
What are you thinking about the final score here?
Baltimore is favored to win thisgame by 7 points.
Do you think Baltimore wins by 7or more points or no?
No, I don't. I think Baltimore.

(02:18:52):
Wins it, but I don't think it's.More than seven points.
I think it's only like a one. I think it's only like 3 points.
Things like a three-point game. Give me like 1417 Baltimore.
So you're going for the lower scoring game 1417?
Give me a higher scoring game here.
Give me Baltimore to win this game by exactly. 6 points.

(02:19:17):
So Cincinnati covers Give me Baltimore 34, Cincinnati 28 be
my final score prediction in this one any.
Other any other words here? JB.

(02:19:37):
You know, we got a game tomorrow, Chicago at
Philadelphia. I will do my absolute best to
get on here and break that net, that game down with you guys.
So I'm gonna give you my early pick.
I'm going. Giant and Windy City Chicago, I
couldn't even tell you right now, guys on the on the Chicago.
And Philly game tomorrow, but domy best to get in a game

(02:20:00):
breakdown for that one. It was tough for me to prepare
for today's, but we got we got through it guys.
I really appreciate you guys forfor tuning in.
Best of luck today for everybodyand I hope you guys enjoy the
day with your families. Happy Thanksgiving.
And just want to give us anotherthank you to the sponsors.

(02:20:22):
Bet US mybookie.agwalmart.com, Open Goal, the MLB and NFL Pro
shops and W energy drinks. Let's go, Let's go, Cowboys.
Like I said, man, let's go. Chiefs, I think the Cowboys will
break my heart today. And.
Luckily, you know, I should havesome food to wash that down

(02:20:43):
with, but hey man, let's go Cowboys.
This would be a great win. JB.
Good luck today and and with your Chiefs.
Good luck today with your cow babies.
Actually going to bring a babe. I'm going to need it.
Yeah, make sure, make sure you guys.
Bring a bib to pick up the. Jewels, it's big dip.

(02:21:04):
Anything else you wanted to add,JB?
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Yeah, you guys go to notmovedash.forcewold.com use
promo code. Not move to receive 10% off.
Store wide you guys can also getinto our NFL jersey raffle off

(02:21:30):
OK, we got a section on there and just redid.
The background. Picture to our website so you
can kind of see it a little bit better easier to navigate, but
you was going down to the the the donation center.
You guys it's $10 a ticket. Buy a little spot get a chance
to opportunity to possibly when you may you know whatever jersey

(02:21:52):
Detroit team player, we don't care.
Just come on and play. That's a fun we.
Will be streaming the games. Today and tomorrow, I don't know
how present I or anybody else will be.
During the streams. But they will be going.

(02:22:13):
You guys for some reason can't watch Thanksgiving football.
I don't know why you. Couldn't, but you can't.
Now you can't as well as you guys go to W dot GG use promo
code not moved receive 10% off store wide.
Now if you guys are going to ourmerchandise store, like I said,
not moved dash shop.fourthwall.com you guys can

(02:22:37):
go over. And it gives you an option.
At checkout to become a quick subscriber, you become a Twitch
subscriber, you automatically receive an extra 5% off for your
purchase. That's a total of 15% off by you
doing that and using promo code not moved y'all I afforded.
Me a hoodie, it's getting cold out.
I got to wrap it. I have my hoodie here in about a

(02:23:01):
week. Let's.
Go guys, NC Chiefs. Man.
Let's go once. Once again, guys, Thank you SO.
Much for for tuning in and the support subscribes to just
hanging out with us. We really appreciate it and we

(02:23:23):
hope this is, you know, making making life easier for you guys
and making it a little bit more enjoyable.
And yeah, man, I hope, I hope this information is, is really
helping you guys out and, you know, especially those.
Alternate. Lines.
That's something new that I've been doing.
I know a lot of people do like parlays, even though I don't,

(02:23:47):
but you know. I think those.
Alternate lines, man, they're, Imean, they look like they've
been doing pretty good lately. So so if you like to stack,
alternate. Lines.
You know. Looks like that's been going
well. Lately.
But yeah, once. Again, happy Thanksgiving,

(02:24:10):
everybody. Thanks again.
Good luck today. All right, JB, Later, man.
Take care. Guys.
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(02:24:30):
of the Not Move Podcast Network.Thank you and we hope you
enjoyed today's broadcast.